10/18/2008
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEK’S NFL GAMES
Time once again for our look at what the sharps are thinking about the week’s NFL action. We have a few games where game day quarterback decisions could influence betting. So, we’ll have to make some guesses in those spots because the sharps haven’t acted yet, or given a public indictor of how they’ll act.
As always, we take the games in rotation order…
TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: This line has stayed stable at Tennessee -8.5 and 35. That puts it in the teaser window. So many of the “basic strategy” teasers have been going down lately that the books aren’t as afraid of them now as they were in past weeks. That could be a mistake based on prior seasons. But, right now, the books aren’t that concerned about dissuading teasers. They made a bunch of money when the Giants failed to cover the teaser spread this past Monday Night. I’m not hearing much of anything about this game other than the fact that it’s being used in sharp teasers.
SAN DIEGO AT BUFFALO: Both the home team and Under were hit very strong here. San Diego opened as a two-point favorite. Playing the rested host facing the tired visitor with a bad body clock was virtually automatic at that price. I’m not seeing pick-em or Buffalo -1 out there. The Chargers just played badly in an early kick at Miami, and didn’t score any points either. That led to Under money coming in at 46.5. The total is down to 44.5 as I write this. A lot of the totals specialists bet Under in New England/San Diego last week too and won. You can almost assume Under money in Chargers games for the time being.
PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI: Another home team and Under combo. Pittsburgh opened at -11 and is down to -9.5 right now. The total has fallen from 37 to 35. Cincinnati’s defense is looking good in the numbers. When you realize what a killer schedule they’ve played, it’s easy to be impressed. Many sharps are taking a shot on that defense keeping this game closer than expected. There was probably also some early hope that Carson Palmer would return. That’s not looking likely as I write this. Be aware that the weather is starting to cool off up North too. Not COLD…but cooler than it’s been. That may inspire some action in spots too.
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI: The home theme continues with Miami being a sharp play early on. The opener was Miami -2. We’re now seeing it at a field goal everywhere. Makes you think they must not like Kansas City at all because the other early home teams are getting hit. Miami has impressed the last few weeks to be sure. Baltimore looked very mortal last week and Indianapolis, and doesn’t have the personnel to get into a shootout with the Dolphins. Note that the total jumped from 34 to 36.5, suggesting the sharps expect some scoring here. It doesn’t take much to go over that low a total.
DALLAS AT ST. LOUIS: This game has been off the board most of the week because Tony Romo may try to play with a broken pinky. We basically know that Dallas is -11 with Romo, and -6 with Brad Johnson. My take of the sharp opinions is that they were looking to take St. Louis +11 against Romo, but might take Dallas at less than a TD with Johnson. They don’t think the true difference between the QB’s is that big. And, the guys who won with St. Louis last week felt a little lucky when they saw how bad the stats were. They’ll take double digits with a home dog…but are less enthusiastic about the lower number.
MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO: This game is right on a field goal as I write this. It opened Chicago -3.5, but came down to -3 with extra juice fairly quickly. It may settle there. The public loves laying a field goal with the home team because they figure the team’s going to win the game anyway. Sharps will take +3.5 with good defenses, particularly if the dog has a strong running game. Probably a tug of war game on Sunday between the sharps and the squares.
NEW ORLEANS AT CAROLINA: We haven’t seen any movement here at all on the side or total. Carolina is -3, with a total of 44.5. Any move off those numbers from public money would bring in the sharps on the other side. They’d back Carolina at -2.5, and New Orleans at +3.5. This looks like an evenly matched game, and that three is such a huge number in close battles. We may end up seeing a universal pass from the sharps if nothing happens on game day. Sometimes the number is where it should be and the Wise Guys just leave it alone.
SAN FRANCISCO AT NY GIANTS: Big moves here on the dog and Over. The early number was New York by 13. They looked vulnerable enough Monday Night (and a few weeks ago at a high price vs. Cincinnati) to encourage money on the Niners even in a bad body clock situation. The number has come down to 10.5 The total jumped from 45 to 46.5 out of the gate, probably because the Giants defense looked so weak. It’s finally registering with people too that San Francisco is likely to be an Over team this year playing the Mike Martz style of football on offense. That creates tempo, but makes it hard for your defense to play great. Oh, I should point out that double digit dogs have a very strong ATS record dating back to about the midway point of last season. Some guys are just going to keep taking the big points until that stops. If it does.
DETROIT AT HOUSTON: Houston opened at -10, which is high for a team with a bad won-lost record. The big dog players hit it immediately, and we’re seeing mostly 9’s as I write this. Don’t know if it will come down to 8.5 because that would trigger basic strategy teasers on Houston. Books are hesitant to do that when the game opened at -10. Feels like too big a move down to -2.5. The total has come down a little from 47 to 46.5. With Jon Kitna out for the Lions, Detroit may have trouble scoring. They covered anyway last week in a 12-10 loss at Minnesota.
NY JETS AT OAKLAND: Big move on the total here, which dropped from 43.5 down to 41. I think the oddsmakers are anticipating love from the public for Brett Favre…but they’re seeing skepticism from the sharps about the Jets offense overall. They had that one big game against Arizona, but have been inconsistent otherwise. I did see some money on the Jets though, driving -3 up to a field goal with added juice. If the sharps liked Oakland, that wouldn’t have happened. We could see the team side line go up on Sunday if the public bets Favre. This is a late start, so they’ll have extra time to think about the Favre vs. Jamarcus Russell matchup.
CLEVELAND AT WASHINGTON: Cleveland won respect with their Sunday Night win, and this line dropped from 9 down to 7.5. It’s worth noting though that it didn’t come all the way down to 7. That’s a little odd for sentiment on the underdog. That means some sharps stepped in on Washington after the initial move. And, there was obviously some basic strategy teaser money coming in as well. If the lines hold through Sunday, Tennessee and Washington are going to be all over the teaser tickets.
INDIANAPOLIS AT GREEN BAY: The total here has come down from 49 to 47. That’s probably due to a combination of things. Indianapolis has been inconsistent on offense. The sharps don’t trust Aaron Rodgers. And, the weather is cooling off in the Midwest. The total will come down more if weather becomes an issue. If not, we may see the public drive the total back up. They love betting Overs with Peyton Manning.
SEATTLE AT TAMPA BAY: We had a total drop here from 41.5 to 38. It’s amazing how many totals had big adjustments this week. You’d think the openers would be getting closer now to reflecting sharp tendencies. They’re still missing some games by 2-3 points. Tampa Bay has a very good defense, and will be facing either a banged up starting quarterback or a bad backup this week. The line of 10.5 hasn’t moved. Given how the sharps love big dogs, that tells you right there that they’re foreseeing Tampa Bay controlling the game and dictating the pace. In a sense, the fact that this line didn’t move is a play on the favorite. Sharps won’t lay double digits. Here they’re not taking them. DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND: Another big total jump, with the opener of 46 going up to 48.5. New England’s defense has really looked bad in the numbers. The math guys are starting to do something about that. Denver’s defense looks bad in numbers and with your eyeballs! Many expect a high scoring game here unless weather becomes an influence. If so, they’ll buy back and shoot a middle. New England got some early money as -3 turned into a field goal with added juice. Love for the Patriots is diminishing though after they looked so bad at San Diego last week. I think the sharps will be more interested in the total than the side here, unless public money moves the number off a field goal.
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEK’S NFL GAMES
Time once again for our look at what the sharps are thinking about the week’s NFL action. We have a few games where game day quarterback decisions could influence betting. So, we’ll have to make some guesses in those spots because the sharps haven’t acted yet, or given a public indictor of how they’ll act.
As always, we take the games in rotation order…
TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: This line has stayed stable at Tennessee -8.5 and 35. That puts it in the teaser window. So many of the “basic strategy” teasers have been going down lately that the books aren’t as afraid of them now as they were in past weeks. That could be a mistake based on prior seasons. But, right now, the books aren’t that concerned about dissuading teasers. They made a bunch of money when the Giants failed to cover the teaser spread this past Monday Night. I’m not hearing much of anything about this game other than the fact that it’s being used in sharp teasers.
SAN DIEGO AT BUFFALO: Both the home team and Under were hit very strong here. San Diego opened as a two-point favorite. Playing the rested host facing the tired visitor with a bad body clock was virtually automatic at that price. I’m not seeing pick-em or Buffalo -1 out there. The Chargers just played badly in an early kick at Miami, and didn’t score any points either. That led to Under money coming in at 46.5. The total is down to 44.5 as I write this. A lot of the totals specialists bet Under in New England/San Diego last week too and won. You can almost assume Under money in Chargers games for the time being.
PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI: Another home team and Under combo. Pittsburgh opened at -11 and is down to -9.5 right now. The total has fallen from 37 to 35. Cincinnati’s defense is looking good in the numbers. When you realize what a killer schedule they’ve played, it’s easy to be impressed. Many sharps are taking a shot on that defense keeping this game closer than expected. There was probably also some early hope that Carson Palmer would return. That’s not looking likely as I write this. Be aware that the weather is starting to cool off up North too. Not COLD…but cooler than it’s been. That may inspire some action in spots too.
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI: The home theme continues with Miami being a sharp play early on. The opener was Miami -2. We’re now seeing it at a field goal everywhere. Makes you think they must not like Kansas City at all because the other early home teams are getting hit. Miami has impressed the last few weeks to be sure. Baltimore looked very mortal last week and Indianapolis, and doesn’t have the personnel to get into a shootout with the Dolphins. Note that the total jumped from 34 to 36.5, suggesting the sharps expect some scoring here. It doesn’t take much to go over that low a total.
DALLAS AT ST. LOUIS: This game has been off the board most of the week because Tony Romo may try to play with a broken pinky. We basically know that Dallas is -11 with Romo, and -6 with Brad Johnson. My take of the sharp opinions is that they were looking to take St. Louis +11 against Romo, but might take Dallas at less than a TD with Johnson. They don’t think the true difference between the QB’s is that big. And, the guys who won with St. Louis last week felt a little lucky when they saw how bad the stats were. They’ll take double digits with a home dog…but are less enthusiastic about the lower number.
MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO: This game is right on a field goal as I write this. It opened Chicago -3.5, but came down to -3 with extra juice fairly quickly. It may settle there. The public loves laying a field goal with the home team because they figure the team’s going to win the game anyway. Sharps will take +3.5 with good defenses, particularly if the dog has a strong running game. Probably a tug of war game on Sunday between the sharps and the squares.
NEW ORLEANS AT CAROLINA: We haven’t seen any movement here at all on the side or total. Carolina is -3, with a total of 44.5. Any move off those numbers from public money would bring in the sharps on the other side. They’d back Carolina at -2.5, and New Orleans at +3.5. This looks like an evenly matched game, and that three is such a huge number in close battles. We may end up seeing a universal pass from the sharps if nothing happens on game day. Sometimes the number is where it should be and the Wise Guys just leave it alone.
SAN FRANCISCO AT NY GIANTS: Big moves here on the dog and Over. The early number was New York by 13. They looked vulnerable enough Monday Night (and a few weeks ago at a high price vs. Cincinnati) to encourage money on the Niners even in a bad body clock situation. The number has come down to 10.5 The total jumped from 45 to 46.5 out of the gate, probably because the Giants defense looked so weak. It’s finally registering with people too that San Francisco is likely to be an Over team this year playing the Mike Martz style of football on offense. That creates tempo, but makes it hard for your defense to play great. Oh, I should point out that double digit dogs have a very strong ATS record dating back to about the midway point of last season. Some guys are just going to keep taking the big points until that stops. If it does.
DETROIT AT HOUSTON: Houston opened at -10, which is high for a team with a bad won-lost record. The big dog players hit it immediately, and we’re seeing mostly 9’s as I write this. Don’t know if it will come down to 8.5 because that would trigger basic strategy teasers on Houston. Books are hesitant to do that when the game opened at -10. Feels like too big a move down to -2.5. The total has come down a little from 47 to 46.5. With Jon Kitna out for the Lions, Detroit may have trouble scoring. They covered anyway last week in a 12-10 loss at Minnesota.
NY JETS AT OAKLAND: Big move on the total here, which dropped from 43.5 down to 41. I think the oddsmakers are anticipating love from the public for Brett Favre…but they’re seeing skepticism from the sharps about the Jets offense overall. They had that one big game against Arizona, but have been inconsistent otherwise. I did see some money on the Jets though, driving -3 up to a field goal with added juice. If the sharps liked Oakland, that wouldn’t have happened. We could see the team side line go up on Sunday if the public bets Favre. This is a late start, so they’ll have extra time to think about the Favre vs. Jamarcus Russell matchup.
CLEVELAND AT WASHINGTON: Cleveland won respect with their Sunday Night win, and this line dropped from 9 down to 7.5. It’s worth noting though that it didn’t come all the way down to 7. That’s a little odd for sentiment on the underdog. That means some sharps stepped in on Washington after the initial move. And, there was obviously some basic strategy teaser money coming in as well. If the lines hold through Sunday, Tennessee and Washington are going to be all over the teaser tickets.
INDIANAPOLIS AT GREEN BAY: The total here has come down from 49 to 47. That’s probably due to a combination of things. Indianapolis has been inconsistent on offense. The sharps don’t trust Aaron Rodgers. And, the weather is cooling off in the Midwest. The total will come down more if weather becomes an issue. If not, we may see the public drive the total back up. They love betting Overs with Peyton Manning.
SEATTLE AT TAMPA BAY: We had a total drop here from 41.5 to 38. It’s amazing how many totals had big adjustments this week. You’d think the openers would be getting closer now to reflecting sharp tendencies. They’re still missing some games by 2-3 points. Tampa Bay has a very good defense, and will be facing either a banged up starting quarterback or a bad backup this week. The line of 10.5 hasn’t moved. Given how the sharps love big dogs, that tells you right there that they’re foreseeing Tampa Bay controlling the game and dictating the pace. In a sense, the fact that this line didn’t move is a play on the favorite. Sharps won’t lay double digits. Here they’re not taking them. DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND: Another big total jump, with the opener of 46 going up to 48.5. New England’s defense has really looked bad in the numbers. The math guys are starting to do something about that. Denver’s defense looks bad in numbers and with your eyeballs! Many expect a high scoring game here unless weather becomes an influence. If so, they’ll buy back and shoot a middle. New England got some early money as -3 turned into a field goal with added juice. Love for the Patriots is diminishing though after they looked so bad at San Diego last week. I think the sharps will be more interested in the total than the side here, unless public money moves the number off a field goal.
Sorry obviously saw this too late...I will post the 20+ point plays in ACE's threads going forward for college. For this week the 20+ were 3-1 and 14-8-2 for the week. I used 374.8 instead of 325 for this week which is the total avg for all the teams. Here is the breakdown for the last 2 weeks.
Value of (+6.0-7.99) 5-4
Value of (+8.0-9.99) 7-4
Value of (+10.0-11.99) 7-3
Value of (+12.0-13.99) 4-3
Value of (+14.0-15.99) 1-5
Value of (+16.0-19.99) 1-2
Value of (+20 ------->) 5-1
YTD: 30-22
Bills have had a very easy schedule so far, im not buying into their crap and i think Edwards will be put out of this game! SD has an excellent record away on the 1st of 2+ game road trips since 02. Every game is tough at some point, but i see a buffalo loss. Very confident that when Joe Public also sees the travel trend, that it comes crashing down. But, Joe Public can win on the Giants and Tampa for 2-1 with the travel trend for the week.... I don't see 3-0 here with the travel trend. Vegas will not get hit that hard on this angle this week imho. There are pluses for the bills that does not make this easy, but it really is. Peters is also a bust for the buffalos and will get housed again this week.
NOT convincing myself of anything as my initial lean was to buffalo. No longer!
GL all and lets see what happens.
:toast:
Update on where the bets are on!
.......................................bets......Sides..M/L............O/U
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142496 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142496', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>405 Tennessee Titans
406 Kansas City Chiefs
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>63363
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>65%
35%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>29%
71%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>74%
26%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>57%
43%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142499 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142499', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>407 San Diego Chargers
408 Buffalo Bills
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>61172
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>61%
39%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>73%
27%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>65%
35%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>75%
25%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142502 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142502', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>409 Pittsburgh Steelers
410 Cincinnati Bengals
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>54453
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>59%
41%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>59%
41%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>73%
27%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>70%
30%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142505 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142505', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>411 Baltimore Ravens
412 Miami Dolphins
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>49212
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>34%
66%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>51%
49%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>42%
58%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>49%
51%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142508 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142508', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>413 Dallas Cowboys
414 St. Louis Rams
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>48011
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>66%
34%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>18%
82%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>71%
29%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>62%
38%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142511 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142511', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>415 Minnesota Vikings
416 Chicago Bears
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>55139
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>29%
71%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>61%
39%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>37%
63%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>67%
33%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142514 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142514', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>417 New Orleans Saints
418 Carolina Panthers
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>58017
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>63%
37%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>71%
29%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>77%
23%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>77%
23%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142517 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142517', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>419 San Francisco 49ers
420 New York Giants
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>51206
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>32%
68%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>26%
74%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>27%
73%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>70%
30%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142520 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142520', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
4:05P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>421 Detroit Lions
422 Houston Texans
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>56050
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>29%
71%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>48%
52%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>28%
72%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>49%
51%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142523 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142523', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
4:15P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>423 New York Jets
424 Oakland Raiders
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>56367
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>86%
14%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>58%
42%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>86%
14%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>73%
27%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142526 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142526', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
4:15P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>425 Cleveland Browns
426 Washington Redskins
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>46058
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>56%
44%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>54%
46%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>58%
42%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>73%
27%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142529 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142529', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
4:15P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>427 Indianapolis Colts
428 Green Bay Packers
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>66557
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>79%
21%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>62%
38%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>84%
16%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>81%
19%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142532 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142532', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
8:15P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>429 Seattle Seahawks
430 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>46454
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>42%
58%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>44%
56%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>31%
69%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>68%
32%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142538 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142538', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
8:35P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>431 Denver Broncos
432 New England Patriots
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>40804
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>63%
37%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>68%
32%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>75%
25%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>44%
56%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
few move of over 6% from friday last update
TENN OVER WAS 63...NOW 57%.....6%MOVE
SD OVER WAS 61%...NOW 75%.....14% MOVE
PIT WAS 50%..........NOW 59%......9% MOVE
DAL WAS 57%.........NOW 66%.......9% MOVE
CHI OVER WAS 61%..NOW 67%......6% MOVE
N.O. OVER WAS 86%..DROP TO 77%..9% DOWN
NYG WAS 62%...NOW 68%..........6% MOVE
NYJ OVER WAS 51% NOW 73%......22% MOVE*****
IND WAS 64%....NOW 79%...........15% MOVE
IND OVER WAS 62%...NOW 68%.....6% MOVE
DEN OVER WAS 51%....NOW UNDER 56%....7% MOVE
.......................................bets......Sides..M/L............O/U
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142496 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142496', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>405 Tennessee Titans
406 Kansas City Chiefs
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>63363
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>65%
35%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>29%
71%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>74%
26%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>57%
43%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142499 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142499', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>407 San Diego Chargers
408 Buffalo Bills
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>61172
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>61%
39%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>73%
27%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>65%
35%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>75%
25%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142502 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142502', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>409 Pittsburgh Steelers
410 Cincinnati Bengals
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>54453
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>59%
41%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>59%
41%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>73%
27%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>70%
30%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142505 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142505', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>411 Baltimore Ravens
412 Miami Dolphins
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>49212
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>34%
66%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>51%
49%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>42%
58%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>49%
51%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142508 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142508', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>413 Dallas Cowboys
414 St. Louis Rams
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>48011
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>66%
34%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>18%
82%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>71%
29%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>62%
38%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142511 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142511', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>415 Minnesota Vikings
416 Chicago Bears
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>55139
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>29%
71%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>61%
39%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>37%
63%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>67%
33%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142514 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142514', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>417 New Orleans Saints
418 Carolina Panthers
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>58017
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>63%
37%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>71%
29%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>77%
23%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>77%
23%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142517 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142517', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
1:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>419 San Francisco 49ers
420 New York Giants
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>51206
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>32%
68%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>26%
74%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>27%
73%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>70%
30%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142520 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142520', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
4:05P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>421 Detroit Lions
422 Houston Texans
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>56050
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>29%
71%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>48%
52%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>28%
72%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>49%
51%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142523 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142523', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
4:15P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>423 New York Jets
424 Oakland Raiders
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>56367
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>86%
14%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>58%
42%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>86%
14%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>73%
27%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142526 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142526', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
4:15P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>425 Cleveland Browns
426 Washington Redskins
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>46058
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>56%
44%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>54%
46%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>58%
42%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>73%
27%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142529 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142529', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
4:15P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>427 Indianapolis Colts
428 Green Bay Packers
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>66557
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>79%
21%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>62%
38%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>84%
16%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>81%
19%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142532 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e142532', event)"><TD id=score width=50>10/19
8:15P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>429 Seattle Seahawks
430 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>46454
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>42%
58%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>44%
56%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>31%
69%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>68%
32%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142538 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142538', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
8:35P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>431 Denver Broncos
432 New England Patriots
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>40804
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>63%
37%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>68%
32%
</TD><TD id=parlaypct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>75%
25%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>44%
56%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
few move of over 6% from friday last update
TENN OVER WAS 63...NOW 57%.....6%MOVE
SD OVER WAS 61%...NOW 75%.....14% MOVE
PIT WAS 50%..........NOW 59%......9% MOVE
DAL WAS 57%.........NOW 66%.......9% MOVE
CHI OVER WAS 61%..NOW 67%......6% MOVE
N.O. OVER WAS 86%..DROP TO 77%..9% DOWN
NYG WAS 62%...NOW 68%..........6% MOVE
NYJ OVER WAS 51% NOW 73%......22% MOVE*****
IND WAS 64%....NOW 79%...........15% MOVE
IND OVER WAS 62%...NOW 68%.....6% MOVE
DEN OVER WAS 51%....NOW UNDER 56%....7% MOVE
$2500.00 #408 Buffalo (Pk) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19) -105
This is my NFL Game of the Month. San Diego is going to have a tough time with a feisty Buffalo team this week. They are coming off a big home win over the hated Patriots and they have to travel cross-country to face a team coming off a bye. That’s a bad recipe. And as we saw in Miami just two weeks ago, the Chargers can be prone to letdown games. The Bills have been great at home and they really have put the buzz back in Ralph Wilson Stadium. Buffalo is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games. They are coming off their first loss of the year, but that was due in part to losing starting QB Trent Edwards on the opening drive. Edwards is healthy and ready to go, and Buffalo is ready to make another statement on its home turf.
$2000.00 #423 New York Jets (-3) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)-110
There is really no reason not to bet against the Raiders every week. They don’t have a quarterback, they don’t really have a coach, and they just continue to underperform against the spread. They are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 home games and 28-57-1 ATS overall. The Jets have won three straight in this series and have taken the last two by an average of over 20 points.
$800.00 #426 Washington (-7) over Cleveland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)-115
The Redskins slipped up last week against St. Louis but I expect a bounce back game against the Browns, who are primed for a letdown after their big win on Monday Night Football. Despite that win over the Giants there are still a lot of problems with this Browns squad. I don’t think that they will beat two NFC East teams in a row and I don’t think that Washington will lose two straight home games. If the Redskins win I think there is a strong chance that they cover and I trust Jim Zorn to have his guys ready more than I trust Romeo Crennel.
$500.00 ‘Under’ 35.5 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19) -105
Without Carson Palmer, the Cincinnati offense is going nowhere. They are the third-worst scoring offense in the league at 14.7 points per game. But the Pittsburgh offense has not been much better. They are 25th in yards per game and just 21st in scoring (20.6 ppg.). The ‘under’ is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Cincy and is 4-2 in Bengals games this season. Also, Cincinnati is just 3-9 against the total in its last 12 games. <!-- / message -->
