Ace, quick question I just finshed getting my line using your system and the system that ive been using so far put together with yours looks really good on paper for the nfl.. But my question is how good is your system with college football? im thinking about doing it for this weeks games, but there are a lot of teams to go through.. Thanks
I have a working sheet on CFB...but give up on it because big team play small team and trow the numbers off....where in the NFL I look for a value of +6....it seem that in the CFB I was looking for number of +20....there is a factor missing...power rank or something to make it a even field....nfl is only 32 team...but CFB is over 120....try for 3 years..If you cant get your myline to be within 6 points of the real line 70% of the time...its not a system!!!! and I try....
good luck and keep me posted:toast:AA
thanx for dropping knowledge ace,glad to see u on the over for the saints game, that was my favorite bet as soon as the line came out, i also think taking BUFFALO 1st half is a strong play, only reason im hesitent to take the bills for the game is that the chargers are usually a second half team and the first half they will probably be having more body clock issues then the second half, just my little recomendation because sandiego is getting healthy and have a little more to play for at this point, ACE u st8 gangsta, i dred the day u leave the rx
So far this year, nobody thinks Mia upseted NE and SD. Also, KS upseted Den. This is the exciting of NFL and gambling.
But i see your point and thank you so much for your input.
lot of players like to see this kind of thing and its nice when you pick a team you like....let's say KC...and than see this.
but
what does past year have to do with this year....take Det....they were 6-2 last year and this year team is diff/than that team...
Kansas or Tenn is not going to be one of my plays this week...think the oddsmaker got it right....if you ask for my lean tenn will win by a td...dont like betting a game that will go down to the last play....hope that helps
best to you
Ace-Ace[/quote]
But i see your point and thank you so much for your input.
so, what do you think about another upset in Kansas??
lot of players like to see this kind of thing and its nice when you pick a team you like....let's say KC...and than see this.
but
what does past year have to do with this year....take Det....they were 6-2 last year and this year team is diff/than that team...
Kansas or Tenn is not going to be one of my plays this week...think the oddsmaker got it right....if you ask for my lean tenn will win by a td...dont like betting a game that will go down to the last play....hope that helps
best to you
Ace-Ace[/quote]
Thanks for the heads up Ace.. also is the line that I come up with, with your myline suppose to be on point with what you get? because I didnt use the preseason and on half of the lines i come up with around something that you got but the other half is off by like 1 or 2 points.. Is the preseason messing me up since im not putting it in or could it be something else? Thanks
poster RFB post #30 in this thread does it without preseason...I do pre to have myline working after week 3...you need 4 weeks of stats for it to be good....Also I feel it does not matter which way you use...that the nice thing about this system...it give you value in the line and by week 12 the line is so tight that a +4 value is starting to be look at. Its alway nice to see RFB ways and with PRE....this way you get two view at it.
Ace
10/16/2008
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]IT'S ALL PART OF THE GAME[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We're at an interesting stage in the evolution of sports wagering. But, sometimes I wonder if it's just a circle, rather than evolution. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You may not have heard about this in other parts of the country. Out here in Nevada, we're seeing a lot of what you would call "poker money" hitting the sportsbooks. About 20 years ago, a group of poker players were serious sports bettors who moved the line. Doyle Brunson, the late Chip Reese, and Dewey Tomko were the most prominent. Their bets were called the "poker plays" or even "pokers" in local slang. People would ask "who are the pokers betting." [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The recent poker boom has created new poker millionaires. And, the guys who were in on the ground floor of creating poker sites are multi-millionaires from that alone. I won't name them here because they haven't publicly named themselves (Brunson, Reese, and Tomko eventually went public and sold their picks for a period of time). But, stories are starting to spread of big action from guys you've probably seen on TV. That's going to be part of the market in the near future. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probably the greatest compliment you can give a big player in Nevada, Reno, or offshore is that he "moves the lines." Sharp money moves the line. Maximum limit bets from known professionals will have an immediate impact on the number. If there's a guy who knows what he's talking about, but doesn't bet big...he won't get much respect. If Albert Einstein came back to life and went 10-0 on small bets this weekend, nobody would pay attention to him. A guy who carries himself like a sharp that goes 6-4 on big bets will get respected, even if he's picking off astrology or uniform colors. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The poker players from 20 years ago established their credentials through success. They moved the numbers. Stories are still told to this day about their biggest exploits. The new wave isn't getting that kind of respect yet. You'll often hear complaints from known sharps out here about how hard it is to get down what they want on a game. Every sportsbook has a limit. Sharps aren't allowed to exceed that limit. Guys who aren't perceived as sharp ARE allowed to do that though. A big casino player from overseas is allowed to bet big. Any whales who lose regularly in blackjack or roulette will get the go-ahead. Thus far, the poker players have been allowed to as well (you'd be surprised how many poker players are down for life because they can't stay away from the craps table, or Chinese poker). If they start winning, they may have trouble pulling that off. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]People always wondered whether the poker guys from 20 years ago were betting their own picks, or somebody else's. That would be a creative way for sharps to use beards to get their picks in at first. If your action is discouraged, find a high roller with a reputation as a gambler to place those bets for you. Winning draws attention to itself though. So, even if that were true, it wouldn't work for long. The poker players would have to hire their own beards! The reputation of Brunson et al for finding an edge is such that they were probably using a combination of elements to determine who they bet. They were undoubtedly very successful. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Will the new wave of poker money find success? Time will tell. Bad news travels faster than good news in this area. It's known on the street that a big play on the Lakers to win the series over the Celtics went down...as did a big bet on Oklahoma over Texas this past weekend. High rollers keep firing. They may hit something eventually. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]From the sportsbooks perspective, it's all part of the game. Who do you let bet big, and who do you keep at limits? Whose action do you encourage? Whose action do you suggest would be better spent elsewhere (I've mentioned in the past that some books treat sharp sports bettors the way casinos treat card counters)? Do you move the line off an early sharp bet? Or, do you assume that it's a head fake and the money is going to come back over the top on the other side later in the week? It was that way when the game first started a few decades ago. It was that way when the poker guys were playing the game in their heyday. It's that way now. It's all part of the game.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What does this mean to you? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Well, if you're reading this you're likely to be a relative outsider to the process. No offense, but it's a relatively small circle of big bettors we're talking about. Most everyone is on the outside of that looking in. I'd suggest the following:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]*Do your own handicapping. Don't worry about what everyone else is doing. Do your research. If you see a number you like, bet it. If not, pass the game. Worrying about what everyone else is doing just distracts you from finding your own insights about teams, coaches, and key players.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]IT'S ALL PART OF THE GAME[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We're at an interesting stage in the evolution of sports wagering. But, sometimes I wonder if it's just a circle, rather than evolution. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You may not have heard about this in other parts of the country. Out here in Nevada, we're seeing a lot of what you would call "poker money" hitting the sportsbooks. About 20 years ago, a group of poker players were serious sports bettors who moved the line. Doyle Brunson, the late Chip Reese, and Dewey Tomko were the most prominent. Their bets were called the "poker plays" or even "pokers" in local slang. People would ask "who are the pokers betting." [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The recent poker boom has created new poker millionaires. And, the guys who were in on the ground floor of creating poker sites are multi-millionaires from that alone. I won't name them here because they haven't publicly named themselves (Brunson, Reese, and Tomko eventually went public and sold their picks for a period of time). But, stories are starting to spread of big action from guys you've probably seen on TV. That's going to be part of the market in the near future. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probably the greatest compliment you can give a big player in Nevada, Reno, or offshore is that he "moves the lines." Sharp money moves the line. Maximum limit bets from known professionals will have an immediate impact on the number. If there's a guy who knows what he's talking about, but doesn't bet big...he won't get much respect. If Albert Einstein came back to life and went 10-0 on small bets this weekend, nobody would pay attention to him. A guy who carries himself like a sharp that goes 6-4 on big bets will get respected, even if he's picking off astrology or uniform colors. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The poker players from 20 years ago established their credentials through success. They moved the numbers. Stories are still told to this day about their biggest exploits. The new wave isn't getting that kind of respect yet. You'll often hear complaints from known sharps out here about how hard it is to get down what they want on a game. Every sportsbook has a limit. Sharps aren't allowed to exceed that limit. Guys who aren't perceived as sharp ARE allowed to do that though. A big casino player from overseas is allowed to bet big. Any whales who lose regularly in blackjack or roulette will get the go-ahead. Thus far, the poker players have been allowed to as well (you'd be surprised how many poker players are down for life because they can't stay away from the craps table, or Chinese poker). If they start winning, they may have trouble pulling that off. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]People always wondered whether the poker guys from 20 years ago were betting their own picks, or somebody else's. That would be a creative way for sharps to use beards to get their picks in at first. If your action is discouraged, find a high roller with a reputation as a gambler to place those bets for you. Winning draws attention to itself though. So, even if that were true, it wouldn't work for long. The poker players would have to hire their own beards! The reputation of Brunson et al for finding an edge is such that they were probably using a combination of elements to determine who they bet. They were undoubtedly very successful. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Will the new wave of poker money find success? Time will tell. Bad news travels faster than good news in this area. It's known on the street that a big play on the Lakers to win the series over the Celtics went down...as did a big bet on Oklahoma over Texas this past weekend. High rollers keep firing. They may hit something eventually. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]From the sportsbooks perspective, it's all part of the game. Who do you let bet big, and who do you keep at limits? Whose action do you encourage? Whose action do you suggest would be better spent elsewhere (I've mentioned in the past that some books treat sharp sports bettors the way casinos treat card counters)? Do you move the line off an early sharp bet? Or, do you assume that it's a head fake and the money is going to come back over the top on the other side later in the week? It was that way when the game first started a few decades ago. It was that way when the poker guys were playing the game in their heyday. It's that way now. It's all part of the game.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What does this mean to you? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Well, if you're reading this you're likely to be a relative outsider to the process. No offense, but it's a relatively small circle of big bettors we're talking about. Most everyone is on the outside of that looking in. I'd suggest the following:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]*Do your own handicapping. Don't worry about what everyone else is doing. Do your research. If you see a number you like, bet it. If not, pass the game. Worrying about what everyone else is doing just distracts you from finding your own insights about teams, coaches, and key players.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you hear somebody bet big on something, don't assume they know more than you do. There are some very rich people in Nevada who are rich despite the fact that they bet poorly on sports...not because they beat the oddsmakers. A big bet from a "gambler" isn't the same thing as a big bet from a sharp. And, besides, what sounds big to you might be chump change to them. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Unless you're a high roller, sportsbook limits aren't going to matter to you. Map out a plan based on your bankroll and tolerance for risk...then develop your own limits for high and low bets. I've seen too many people lose site of the fundamentals because they want to act or feel like a high roller. It just makes them go broke faster. There are no sure things in life, don't bet like there are. [/FONT]
If you hear somebody bet big on something, don't assume they know more than you do. There are some very rich people in Nevada who are rich despite the fact that they bet poorly on sports.
key point...I alway see someone betting $10k-$20k a game....this does not mean they are sharp. you have to know more than the amount one is betting...
1....does he win over the long run
2... there are people that try to move the line one way to get more on the other side in a few days
I know only a few sharp that seem to have inside on some game...I dont call those books all the time and for the most part they know who I'm and dont want me to posted it.....
the point is one bit of news by itself do you no good.
you have to put it all together to know what's up.
Ace
key point...I alway see someone betting $10k-$20k a game....this does not mean they are sharp. you have to know more than the amount one is betting...
1....does he win over the long run
2... there are people that try to move the line one way to get more on the other side in a few days
I know only a few sharp that seem to have inside on some game...I dont call those books all the time and for the most part they know who I'm and dont want me to posted it.....
the point is one bit of news by itself do you no good.
you have to put it all together to know what's up.
Ace
Ace:
i have been using my own system of power rating the teams based on points scored and allowed......and i found over the years that it was very good at times...and very bad at other times...but always ended the year in the plus column.
when i saw your myline system, i incorporated those four stats into my system and it has stabilized the wild swings....i now use myline (no preseason) as one method, my old system with the 4 new stats to consider as another method, and i look at games each of those two systems pick together..
so far
old/new system = 14 - 11 56%
myline = 14 - 12 53.85%
games picked by both methods = 8 - 6 57.14%
you can see that the combined system has only picked 14 games the same way over the past 2 weeks...and just a slight edge to the old/new system in head to head battle...but these have...and will change on a week to week basis...
the key is staying in the game until one or more of these systems has a great day...
this is picking all the games...not just those with a six point edge....
:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033
i have been using my own system of power rating the teams based on points scored and allowed......and i found over the years that it was very good at times...and very bad at other times...but always ended the year in the plus column.
when i saw your myline system, i incorporated those four stats into my system and it has stabilized the wild swings....i now use myline (no preseason) as one method, my old system with the 4 new stats to consider as another method, and i look at games each of those two systems pick together..
so far
old/new system = 14 - 11 56%
myline = 14 - 12 53.85%
games picked by both methods = 8 - 6 57.14%
you can see that the combined system has only picked 14 games the same way over the past 2 weeks...and just a slight edge to the old/new system in head to head battle...but these have...and will change on a week to week basis...
the key is staying in the game until one or more of these systems has a great day...
this is picking all the games...not just those with a six point edge....
:aktion033:aktion033:aktion033
ope:
*Do your own handicapping. Don't worry about what everyone else is doing. Do your research. If you see a number you like, bet it. If not, pass the game. Worrying about what everyone else is doing just distracts you from finding your own insights about teams, coaches, and key players.
Love this read and so far i see sharps and public LOSING on da bills. I'll stay will my plays all day
Love this read and so far i see sharps and public LOSING on da bills. I'll stay will my plays all day
billbeater;5890228 Love this read and so far i see [B said:sharps and public LOSING on da bills[/B]. I'll stay will my plays all day
Keep trying to convice yourself that SD is a great play. I'm not saying the Bills are a great play, but it's not an easy play either way. I thought public was all over SD anyway so how would sharps and public lose? What is your basis for liking SD? I saw you in another thread saying they are "due" because west coast going east are 0-10 so far this year. Is this your basis? Going against solid trends is a dangerous proposition. BOL with you plays!
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?p=5891415&posted=1#post5891415
Cfb picks up....too much going on....not sure when I can posted NFL pick
try later
Ace
Cfb picks up....too much going on....not sure when I can posted NFL pick
try later
Ace
