Exbookie Want To Help The Players Week 7

jaspirr · Oct 14, 2008

I like the over in the CAR/NO game but I am very curious about the O/U 24 in the PIT game. If I remember right, only 5 out of the 88 games played this year have gone under 24 points. Two of those games were 23 and one was 22. I know PIT was involved in two of those games this year, but my gut feeling says Pit won't keep struggling against the Cincinatti defense.

Make no mistake, though, I might still take under 34 for the game. I just don't think it will be under 24.

SamyFarhaJr · Oct 14, 2008

Here are the numbers with a value of +6 for Over/Under. Last week 4-1 YTD: 7-4

Cincinnati +10.65 (take Under 35.5 -- predicted 24.85)
Carolina +10.56 (take Over 44 -- predicted 54.56)
Detroit +8.28 (take Under 47 -- predicted 38.72)
Chicago +7.02 (take Over 38 -- predicted 45.02)
Kansas City +6.73 (take Under 35.5 -- predicted 28.77)
San Francisco +6.24 (take Under 46 -- predicted 39.76)

SamyFarhaJr · Oct 14, 2008

Ace, looks like the lines match up except the Giants/SF:

307.2+316=623.2-325=298.2 /7.5=39.76

ACE-ACE · Oct 14, 2008

Samy Farha Jr said:
Ace, looks like the lines match up except the Giants/SF:

307.2+316=623.2-325=298.2 /7.5=39.76

did it again..ny

vs ny (a)...thanks for the update:toast:AA

ACE-ACE · Oct 14, 2008

Samy Farha Jr said:
Ace, looks like the lines match up except the Giants/SF:

307.2+316=623.2-325=298.2 /7.5=39.76

you did not take the right number...316 ...its

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</NOSCRIPT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD><HR SIZE=1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 border=0 cellpaddding="2"><TBODY><TR><TD><FORM style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px; DISPLAY: inline; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"><SELECT class=formdef style="VISIBILITY: visible" onchange=" window.location.href=this.options[this.selectedIndex].value" name=pulldown><OPTION value=League selected>League<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-TOTAL/2008/regular>NFL<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/AFC/OFF-TOTAL/2008/regular>AFC<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFC/OFF-TOTAL/2008/regular>NFC</OPTION></SELECT></FORM></TD><TD> </TD><TD><FORM style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px; DISPLAY: inline; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"><SELECT class=formdef style="VISIBILITY: visible" onchange=" window.location.href=this.options[this.selectedIndex].value" name=pulldown><OPTION value="Team Sortables - Offense" selected>Team Sortables - Offense<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-PASSING/2008/regular>Passing<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-RUSHING/2008/regular>Rushing<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-RECEIVING/2008/regular>Receiving<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-SCORING/2008/regular>Scoring<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-PUNTING/2008/regular>Punting<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-KICKING/2008/regular>Kickoffs<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-RETURNS/2008/regular>Returns<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-FIELDGOALS/2008/regular>Field Goals<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-TOTAL/2008/regular>Total Offense<OPTION value=/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-TURNOVERS/2008/regular>Turnovers</OPTION></SELECT></FORM></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=left><TD colSpan=17>NFL Total Offense - Total Yards/Game</TD></TR><TR class=bg1 align=left><TD>Team</TD><TD>G</TD><TD>Plys</TD><TD>Yds/G</TD><TD>Y/P</TD><TD>FD/G</TD><TD>3rd Md</TD><TD>3rd Att</TD><TD>3rd %</TD><TD>4th Md</TD><TD>4th Att</TD><TD>4th %</TD><TD>Pen</TD><TD>PenYds</TD><TD>TOP</TD><TD>TF</TD><TD>L</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>New York (N)</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>316</TD><TD>419.4</TD><TD>6.6</TD><TD>24.0</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>46.2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>273</TD><TD>32:14</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

AlistairCookie · Oct 14, 2008

PO69 said:
You didnt mention this at the beginning of the season though. You know that most of your loyal sheep bet the same amount on each of their games. I havent bet any of them, but I have opened your thread a few times in the past 2 weeks. The EX-BOOKIE title is getting a little old though. A lot of us were ex-local bookies. No need to post that each and every week

Ace is a good guy, who NEVER comes across as being the know-it-all ex-bookie...one of the nicest guys who gives picks on here amof. The way I see it anyway...When you say 'sheep' you make it sound like you think he's somehow getting over on everyone. Any asshole who follows him like a sheep a) deserves to lose his money (but won't

) and b) What the heck would ACE get out of giving his own picks away for free on a website?

He wins over time - are you jealous? It sure as all reads like that.

---------------------

ACE, thanks for the picks...

I notice the one that stuck out for you is also on of the West Coast -->East Coast that Bogdanovich was talking about last week....

SamyFarhaJr · Oct 14, 2008

ACE-ACE said:
you did not take the right number...316 ...its

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</td></tr></tbody></table>

yup I took the plays instead...good thing we are doing this together to catch each others mistakes :lol:

SamyFarhaJr · Oct 14, 2008

Updating with correct numbers:

Cincinnati +10.65 (take Under 35.5 -- predicted 24.85)
Carolina +10.56 (take Over 44 -- predicted 54.56)
Detroit +8.28 (take Under 47 -- predicted 38.72)
San Francisco +7.54 (take Over 46 -- predicted 53.54)
Chicago +7.02 (take Over 38 -- predicted 45.02)
Kansas City +6.73 (take Under 35.5 -- predicted 28.77)

ACE-ACE · Oct 15, 2008

<TABLE class=handi width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TH class=handi></TH></TR><TR><TD class=handi>10/15/2008

DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
NEVADA SPORTSBOOKS HAVE HUGE WEEKEND KEYED BY INDY AND NFL UNDERDOGS
Most weeks you hear sportsbook operators in Las Vegas and Reno crying.
*If things went badly, they’re crying about it.
*If they broke even, they’re crying about it as if it went badly.
*If they won a little, they’re crying as if it went badly.
*If they won, they’re remembering an earlier bad week and crying about it.
*If they won BIG, they can’t keep the big smiles off their faces!
There are a lot of big smiles behind the counters at sportsbooks this week because the public lost big, AND the sharps lost big as well. This was particularly true in the NFL, though there was some big college action that went down in a few spots. Pro football is where the money came in:
*Baltimore was a very popular sharp play last week, particularly at the early numbers. I talked about this over the weekend, outlining how the line had fallen almost a field goal from the opener. The Ravens were literally never in the game. Indianapolis, a team that drove a spike through the hearts of oddsmakers the prior Sunday in Houston made it up to them with a blowout win. You don’t often see the sharps lose when the line moves this much. The sportsbooks were certainly celebrating that rare occurrence.
*Carolina was a popular play at the early number too in Tampa Bay. And, once that line came down, the Panthers were a popular play in teasers. The public usually teases big favorites down as “insurance.” Sharps use “basic strategy” of crossing the 3’s and 7’s whenever they can. Carolina was a qualifier there on paper, but lost on the field 27-3. Sharps tend to “round robin” their teaser teams. So, when a team loses, it doesn’t just cost them one bet…it costs them every bet containing that team. It’s also worth nothing that sharps like teasers even MORE when a game is expected to be a defensive struggle. Moving a line 6 points has more value when the over under is 37 than when it’s 47. Carolina hurt a lot of sharps bad.
*Minnesota, Houston, and Washington were all popular public favorites this week. Minnesota and Washington were going against Detroit and St. Louis. The public had made good money betting against those horrible teams this year. It came back to bite them Sunday though, as both ugly dogs almost won outright. A lot of parlay cards and public teaser bets went down with those results. Houston won straight up, but couldn’t cover its three point spread.
*Denver and Over was a popular play in late action, as everyone pictured that high octane offense posting a big result against the struggling Jacksonville defense. That didn’t happen either. Another popular parlay team bit the dust. Remember that late games have more betting action then early games. One result like this can make up for a bad morning from the casino’s perspective. When the morning went well…this kind of result is a home run.
*Monday Night, the books really cleaned up when Cleveland upset the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. Not only were the Giants a popular betting team for the public…but the Giants were in a lot of parlays and teasers. In fact, the Giants were probably the number one teaser team in Nevada and offshore because the public wanted the extra points for insurance…and the sharps were using basic strategy and bringing the line down across the 7 and the 3. Some seasoned professionals had also used the Giants in teasers for NEXT week. Those have lost already. What was supposed to be a bailout night for the public and the sharps turned into a one-night printing press for the sportsbooks.
The only tears this week for sportsbook operators are tears of joy. It’s been hard for them to remember a week THIS good where everything fell into place.
Are those guys the only ones smiling right now? No. Some players did very well too.
Old school sharps in particular scored big. Those guys love underdogs, particularly big underdogs. That means they were taking shots on Detroit and St. Louis while the public was loading up on the favorites. They were backing the big Monday Night home underdog in the final game of the weekend. If the old school guys needed a bailout because of other losses, they won. If they were up for the weekend because of their dog success, they pressed their winnings up and cashed a nice ticket.
Are there any lessons YOU can take from a week like this? I think there are several:
*First, remember that even professional wagerers have bad weeks. Those who focus on teasers did very well last year, but aren’t so happy about it this year. The past weekend was particularly tough on them because both Carolina and the NY Giants failed to get there. Most big teasers involved those teams because of the low game total in the first one, and the apparent statistical edges in the second. Don’t get too down on yourself after a bad week. The best of the sharps have bad weeks too.
*Remember that the betting markets often overrate the most highly regarded teams. My last article talked about some of the pointpsread issues for favorites in the BCS race in the colleges. Sunday and Monday in the pros, teams with the WORSE record entering the game went 7-4 against the spread. Outright winners/covers included Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Arizona, San Diego, and Cleveland. *History shows that short term success with favorites will eventually hit a wall. You may win for awhile when hot teams are at their best. They eventually cool off. The public loses more in that cool off period than they win when the going is good. See if you can find a way to protect what you’ve won instead of exposing yourself to a complete meltdown. *If you bet in Vegas or Reno, be careful with those parlay cards. They’re the secret weapon sportsbooks use to beat the public. The house can live with a loss to sharps if the win from the public is even greater. Those parlay cards make it possible. You wouldn’t believe how many parlay cards with teams like Minnesota, Washington, and Denver were in trash Sunday afternoon.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

rfb · Oct 15, 2008

myline with no pre-season stats included:

tenn 4.5*
buff 1
pitt 9
mia 4.5
dal 6
chi 3.5
no 1*
nyg 10
hous 9
nyj 4.5
wash 6.5
gb 2.5*
tb 7*
ne 3
....................
wow...not a one 6 point difference
*=games with the differences listed below
2 ....3.5 point and one 4 and one 4.5 point difference only

hno:

hno:d1g1t

Vegas83 · Oct 15, 2008

hey Ace hope the move is going well, did you move to Vegas?I was reading the write up from Nick and he was mentioning how the sharps lost their teasers with Carolina, I always heard that teaser were sucker bets. do the sharps play teasers a lot or just in specific spots? I like playing them more as an action bet or insurance bet if you will just didn't think the sharps played them.Any insights would be great.Vegas

thecruncher · Oct 15, 2008

Thanks a bunch for Nick's article, Ace! It neatly sums up why I was even on regular bets for the weekend, but down overall as a result of lost teasers! Congrats on Atlanta last week...

ACE-ACE · Oct 15, 2008

Vegas83 said:
hey Ace hope the move is going well, did you move to Vegas?I was reading the write up from Nick and he was mentioning how the sharps lost their teasers with Carolina, I always heard that teaser were sucker bets. do the sharps play teasers a lot or just in specific spots? I like playing them more as an action bet or insurance bet if you will just didn't think the sharps played them.Any insights would be great.Vegas

they are sucker plays ....but if you go over prime number it can help

never like 6 point teaser...those are sucker plays....

Car was at +2....so if you move it to +12 its over two prime number...vs taking the other team at +8..only one prime number
the best one is to like a dog at 4.5-5...this way you get 14 1/2...but you got to like the play....if you took it the other way -4.5 to +5.5...there no edge....see what I mean

best to you Ace

ACE-ACE · Oct 15, 2008

thecruncher said:
Thanks a bunch for Nick's article, Ace! It neatly sums up why I was even on regular bets for the weekend, but down overall as a result of lost teasers! Congrats on Atlanta last week...

I talk to him on the phone a few time and he know I posted them over here...the guy knows his stuff...

bmore · Oct 15, 2008

Vegas83 said:
hey Ace hope the move is going well, did you move to Vegas?I was reading the write up from Nick and he was mentioning how the sharps lost their teasers with Carolina, I always heard that teaser were sucker bets. do the sharps play teasers a lot or just in specific spots? I like playing them more as an action bet or insurance bet if you will just didn't think the sharps played them.Any insights would be great.Vegas

What makes that even more laughable to me is that they said these so called "sharps" played multiple teasers with the SAME GAME!!!

i have learned from past experiences that there can't possibly be a dumber thing to do...it really is the easiest way to the poor house. there is no such thing as a lock even with the 6 ot 7 pt teasers.

The fact that they would tease Car and the Giants last week is laughable as well. any idiot should have known the the entire season for the Bucs was on the line there...they always play Car great at home...who really thought that the Bucs would lose at home to Car in a must win spot?? rule of thumb for those that like to play teasers is don't tease a 7-10 pt fav down...most of the time when these teams don't cover, they will lose SU...the best teasers are teasing a small dog (especially a home dog between 1.5 - 5) up. these guys he speaks of are about as sharp as my cock

:nohead:

Get-Money · Oct 15, 2008

ace

u know ur shit bro...i like that.....i'm new to this site but i've been following you and reading up on all the knowledge u drop......u def know ur shit.....

i'm gonna be following you from hear on out......i cant wait to see ur NFL investments for this weekend...

Have u posted anything for college football...i cant seem to find ur thread and i swore i seen it last weekend.....

thanks:smoker2:

ACE-ACE · Oct 15, 2008

some candy

Sunday, October 19
Tennessee

2-10 favs off SU non div win vs opp off SU loss

KANSAS CITY

6-0 Game Six… 10-1 HD’s vs opp off BB SUATS wins

San Diego

1-16 .500 > favs off SUATS win vs AFC East (0-1 this year)

BUFFALO

13-1 H off SU loss vs non div opp off DD SU win

Pittsburgh

SERIES: 4-1 L5… TOMLIN: 1-7 A off SU win (1-2 this year)

CINCINNATI

15-3 H vs opp off SU A win… 0-4 Game Seven

Baltimore

OCT: 7-1 A off BB SUATS losses… 4-1 Game Seven

MIAMI

0-10 favs off SU loss… 0-5 Game Six

Dallas

SERIES: 3-0 L3 A… 1-8 RF’s vs < .500 opp off SU dog win

ST. LOUIS

0-10 vs .666 > opp off SU fav loss… 4-1 O/U Game Six

Minnesota

0-5 Game Seven… 2-14 RD’s vs opp off SUATS loss

CHICAGO

SMITH: 8-1 off SU non div loss vs opp off SU win (1-1 TY)

New Orleans

SERIES: 6-0 L6 A… Visitor in Panther series 13-0

CAROLINA

3-12-1 .500 > HF’s vs .500 > opp (1-0-1 this year)

San Francisco

NOLAN: 1-8 A vs non div opp off SU loss (0-1 this year)

NY GIANTS

SERIES: 4-0 L4… 7-1 off AFC North vs opp off BB SU losses

Detroit

5-0 vs .333 < opp off SU win… 5-1 Game Six

HOUSTON

1-8 off SU win vs non div opp off A game

NY Jets

OCT: 6-1 A vs opp off DD SU loss… 4-1 Game Six

OAKLAND

OCT: 1-8 dogs off SUATS non div loss… 2-9 O/U Game Six

Cleveland

11-0 off non div game vs opp off non div game (1-0 TY)

WASHINGTON

2-11 H off SU loss w/rev & O/U line 42 > pts

Indianapolis

DUNGY: 9-1 A off DD SU win vs .500 > non div opp

GREEN BAY

7-0 .500 > off SU win w/ rev vs non div opp

Seattle

SERIES: 4-1 L5… 6-0 off BB SU losses vs .500 > opp

TAMPA BAY

0-3 Game Seven… OCT: 3-18 off SUATS win vs non div opp

Monday, October 20
Denver

1-5 Monday RD’s off SU loss… 3-14 Mondays vs opp off L

NEW ENGLAND

BELICHICK: 8-1 w/ rev vs opp off SU fav loss

ACE-ACE · Oct 15, 2008

Get-Money said:
u know ur shit bro...i like that.....i'm new to this site but i've been following you and reading up on all the knowledge u drop......u def know ur shit.....

i'm gonna be following you from hear on out......i cant wait to see ur NFL investments for this weekend...

Have u posted anything for college football...i cant seem to find ur thread and i swore i seen it last weekend.....

thanks/quote]

when one dont write in a thread it goes down...

here is the thread http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?p=5887085#post5887085

doing ok(20-11)...could be better.

Welcome to this side of the forum...we all have something to share

best to you

Ace-Ace

pgcluu · Oct 15, 2008

upset for wk 7

Sunday, October 19

Tennessee

2-10 favs off SU non div win vs opp off SU loss

KANSAS CITY

6-0 Game Six… 10-1 HD’s vs opp off BB SUATS wins

so, what do you think about another upset in Kansas??

Monday, October 20

Denver

1-5 Monday RD’s off SU loss… 3-14 Mondays vs opp off L

NEW ENGLAND

BELICHICK: 8-1 w/ rev vs opp off SU fav loss

I really like NE on MNF, specially when John Madden was talking about triangle game during NE and SD game.

Den won SD (wk2)
SD won NE (last Sun)
NE will play Den this week.

Similar to NE, Pit and Indy couple years ago.

[/quote]

Aloha_4_Da_Winna · Oct 15, 2008

I like it

pgcluu said:
Sunday, October 19

Tennessee

2-10 favs off SU non div win vs opp off SU loss

KANSAS CITY

6-0 Game Six… 10-1 HD’s vs opp off BB SUATS wins

so, what do you think about another upset in Kansas??

Monday, October 20
Denver

1-5 Monday RD’s off SU loss… 3-14 Mondays vs opp off L

NEW ENGLAND

BELICHICK: 8-1 w/ rev vs opp off SU fav loss

I really like NE on MNF, specially when John Madden was talking about triangle game during NE and SD game.

Den won SD (wk2)
SD won NE (last Sun)
NE will play Den this week.

Similar to NE, Pit and Indy couple years ago.