Exbookie Want To Help The Player Week 14

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geeze

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ACE, When does the NFL (during the regular season) play to a tie?

If they do NOT play to a tie, then what's the difference if you bet pick, or if you lay minus one-half?

Thank you for your response.

geeze.
 
jwblue

jwblue

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geeze said:
ACE, When does the NFL (during the regular season) play to a tie?

If they do NOT play to a tie, then what's the difference if you bet pick, or if you lay minus one-half?

Thank you for your response.

geeze.
Click to expand...
The game is a tie if no one scores in the 15 minute OT.

IS
 

carllaugh

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Right to tease??

Ace thanks for all of you great info. my question is, if the lines are all pretty on with your system, would i be wrong in teasing some of the games? i dont see any team losing to buffalo by 17...thanks again for all you have done
 
ACE-ACE

ACE-ACE

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carllaugh said:
Ace thanks for all of you great info. my question is, if the lines are all pretty on with your system, would i be wrong in teasing some of the games? i dont see any team losing to buffalo by 17...thanks again for all you have done
Click to expand...
CLEV...COULD!!!!... I WOULD TAKE BUF 1ST.....
 
ACE-ACE

ACE-ACE

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Recaping My Bets

SD-5.5........................................$3000.00

UNDER 43.5 IN THE SD GAME......$2000.00

3 TEAM TEASER...BUF-1
..........................NO+17 1/2
..........................CIN +21 1/2.....$700.00




MORE SMALL BETS TO COME
 

_wheredatreezat

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Ace, what do you think of this post below....


confused.gif
Only 3 lines under 7 pts?
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->I don't ever remember a weekend in the NFL where 13 of the 16 games were a td or more. The other 2 of 3 are 5 and 6 pts. I know Mr. Ace-Ace has said that the spread rarely matters in the NFL and I think he has excellent info, but it is hard for me to look at all these huge lines and not see a fair amount of teams covering but not winning this week. Love to hear what others think of these huge numbers.

Mac:icon_conf
Posted by someone else in another thread.
 
ACE-ACE

ACE-ACE

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_wheredatreezat said:
Ace, what do you think of this post below....


confused.gif
Only 3 lines under 7 pts?


<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->I don't ever remember a weekend in the NFL where 13 of the 16 games were a td or more. The other 2 of 3 are 5 and 6 pts. I know Mr. Ace-Ace has said that the spread rarely matters in the NFL and I think he has excellent info, but it is hard for me to look at all these huge lines and not see a fair amount of teams covering but not winning this week. Love to hear what others think of these huge numbers.


Mac:icon_conf
Posted by someone else in another thread.
Click to expand...
its been 2-3 teams a week that the points matter......if it going to happen more than that......it will happen on the big lines.....and this week it load with them!!!!
 

ElIguana

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Ace, I really like the TB/SD under 43. Brees and LT have drawn all the attention, but Chargers D has held opponents at home. Plus TB goes under the total in almost every game they play. GL
 
jwblue

jwblue

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ACE-ACE:

More info Seahawks/Vikings.

Seattle 1-7 ATS last eight games.

IS
 
ACE-ACE

ACE-ACE

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EL IGUANA....AND EVERYBODY THAT LOVE THE UNDER IN THE SD GAME......

I SEE THE SCORE AS BEING 10 -7....14-3....7-3.....10-3......10-0 ......13-0..BY THE 1ST HALF.......TB STARTS SLOW .....THE LAST TWO TIME THAT THEY BEEN ON THE ROAD....

BUT ACE.....YOU BET THE UNDER WHAT IS YOUR POINT?
(THERE THAT VOICE AGAIN)

I SEE SD BEING AHEAD AT THE END OF THE 1ST HALF...

BY.....3.... 11......4........7......10.......13.....POINTS....

SOMETHING ABOUT THIS MATCH -UP THAT I LOVE.....

MY BET IS...........SD-2 1/2....BUY THE HOOK.....$1000.00

GOOD LUCK TO ALL
ACE
 

Bluesters

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Ace, I found this on another site

The Falcon, part II



Play the ponies? I do.

Heard of Andy Beyer? He's only the demigod of horse racing speed figures. Followed by Len Ragozin and a string of imitators.

One of Andy's famous quotes is that Speed Figures are for horse race predictions "the truth, the way, and the light."

Another famous quote is that "The race doesn't always go to the swiftest, or the fight to the strongest, but that's the way to bet!"

My goal is simple, to create "Speed Figures for the NFL."



I want one number that tells me how well a team played in a game. I want PP's (Past Performances) for NFL teams that have the same structure as horse racing PP's you'd find in a Daily Racing Form. I want to use the same lingo and theories of horseplayers: new top, bounce, horse for course, bad trip. I am convinced the road to riches follows along a similar path in football that it does with horses.

I'm working on it. I'm not there yet, but I'm working on it.

Here is kind of what I have in mind:

Falcon PP's: Tampa Bay at San Diego (-5.5 )

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=350 bgColor=#efefef border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#33cc33><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Week</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Away</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Current
Pwr</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Home</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Current
Pwr</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Away
2Win</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Home
2Win</CENTER>[/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>[size=-1]14 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>TB</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD align=middle>[size=-1]103.2[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>SD</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD align=middle>[size=-1]109.7[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]108 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]106 [/size]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



[size=-2]The '2Win' ratings show the figure a team needs to achieve
in order to cover against the posted spread for the game.[/size]

[size=+1]Tampa Bay[/size]
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=520 bgColor=#efefef border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#33cc33><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Week</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Opp</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Line</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>For</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Agn</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>TeamPwr</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Opp.Pwr</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Opp.Fig</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>TeamFig</CENTER>[/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>[size=-1]13 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]ATL[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]-1.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]27 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]0 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]100.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]99.8 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]76 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]123 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0df><TD align=right>[size=-1]12 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]@CAR[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]-2.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]14 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]21 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]100.8 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]98.4 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]104 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]94 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>[size=-1]11 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]SF[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]-8 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]35 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]3 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]97.7 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]88.2 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]68 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]117 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0df><TD align=right>[size=-1]10 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]@ATL[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]+3.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]14 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]24 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]98.8 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]97.2 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]105 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]90 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>[size=-1]9 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]KC[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]+3 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]34 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]31 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]98.0 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]106.6 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]98 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]106 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0df><TD align=right>[size=-1]7 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]CHI[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]-6 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]19 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]7 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]95.3 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]97.0 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]86 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]106 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>[size=-1]6 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]@STL[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]+6.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]21 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]28 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]94.4 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]101.4 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]98 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]97 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0df><TD align=right>[size=-1]5 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]@NO[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]+3 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]20 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]17 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]93.7 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]92.0 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]87 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]98 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD colSpan=2>[size=-1][/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]-0.3 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]23 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]16 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#cccccc>[size=-1]97.4 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]97.6 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]90 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#cccccc>[size=-1]104 [/size]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Away Ave. Fig = 95
Home Ave. Fig = 113


[size=+1]San Diego[/size]
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=520 bgColor=#efefef border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#33cc33><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Week</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Opp</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Line</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>For</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Agn</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>TeamPwr</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Opp.Pwr</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>Opp.Fig</CENTER>[/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]<CENTER>TeamFig</CENTER>[/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>[size=-1]13 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]DEN[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]-2.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]20 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]17 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]110.9 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]105.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]110 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]105 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0df><TD align=right>[size=-1]12 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]@KC[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]+2.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]34 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]31 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]111.4 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]102.3 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]105 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]108 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>[size=-1]11 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]@OAK[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]-4 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]23 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]17 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]111.7 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]90.6 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]102 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]99 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0df><TD align=right>[size=-1]9 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]NO[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]-6 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]43 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]17 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]108.9 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]93.7 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]85 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]116 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>[size=-1]8 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]OAK[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]-5.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]42 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]14 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]105.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]92.3 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]80 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]117 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0df><TD align=right>[size=-1]7 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]@CAR[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]+3 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]17 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]6 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]104.3 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]93.3 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]90 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]107 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>[size=-1]6 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]@ATL[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]+5.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]20 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]21 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]106.0 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]104.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]104 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]106 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0df><TD align=right>[size=-1]5 [/size]</TD><TD>[size=-1]JAC[/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]+3 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]34 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]21 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ccff>[size=-1]103.6 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]98.2 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]93 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#66ff66>[size=-1]108 [/size]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD colSpan=2>[size=-1][/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]-0.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]29 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]18 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#cccccc>[size=-1]107.8 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]97.5 [/size]</TD><TD align=right>[size=-1]96 [/size]</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#cccccc>[size=-1]108 [/size]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Away Ave. Fig = 105
Home Ave. Fig = 111

This is how I want to handicap.

Tampa's been hot at home, rolling 123, 117, 106, 106 figs over the last four. But check out the road numbers: 94, 90, 97, 98! San Diego has been awesome where ever the game is played.

Both teams have had soft schedules, but TB has kept opponents in check, allowing only two 100+ Figs to opponents in the last eight games. Chargers have allowed three straight 100+ numbers which may not be a good sign.

Tampa has been on an "every other week" pattern (note the back to back 106 Figs came with a bye week in between!)

When Tampa has played above average teams (>100 power rating) they are 1-1 straight up and 1-1 against the spread with an average Fig of 101.5, and when San Diego has played above average teams they are 2-1 and 3-0 against the spread with an average Fig of 107.

Ultimately the home/away split is too great to ignore for me. A 95 average for Tampa versus a 111 average for San Diego.

There are all kinds of directions to go from here. Looking for bounces, looking for "teams for course" by adding in field surface columns into the PP, weather, etc. etc.

I don't have all the answers now, but just wait until next season! (If you can't wait, bet San Diego -5.5.)
 
ACE-ACE

ACE-ACE

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bluesters

GOOD STUFF....WERE THAT SITE?...AND DOES HE DO IT TO ALL THE GAMES?

I LIKE THEM(SD-5.5)..:drink:
 

TOMMYB

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Ace-ace

A GUEST HANDICAPPER INTRODUCED THAT SYSTEM ON THIS SITE LAST WEEK (WWW.TWOMINUTEWARNING.COM) , AND TEY DECIDED TO LOOK INTO IT BY USING IT THIS WEEK . ITS IN THE MEMBERS SECTION AND THEY DID EACH GAME THIS WEEK .
 
ACE-ACE

ACE-ACE

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thank guys.....i will check it out.....I let you know what i think.....
 
cruisin

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Aside from breaking down the logistics of the game, I think another thing to consider (not sure if anyone has mentioned this) is Keenan McCardell's knowledge of TB's defensive schemes and knowing how to counter. Of course, Gruden will look to disguise coverage but I think this could be a factor to consider in this game. Not to mention he'll want to stick it to his former team with the way things transpired between them. Just my 2cents.
 
ACE-ACE

ACE-ACE

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THERE ARE 67 OUT OF 192 THAT THE DOGS WON OUTRIGHT......THAT 4-5 GAMES A WEEK......ONE OF THEM IS GOING TO BE N.O.

TO MANY POINTS.....
T/O 21 VS 27 FOR DALLAS
GIVEAWAY VS TAKEAWAY
NO -2....VS DALLAS -14

MY BET IS N.O +7 1/2 FOR $900.00



 
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