Exbookie Want To Help The Player Week 14

[ACE-ACE]

I WANT TO DISPEL SOME OF THE MYTHS BEHIND BETTING ON THE NFL...THERE ARE MANY THEORIES ON HOW HOME TEAMS PLAYING AS A 3 POINT( OR LESS) DOGS OR FAVORITES COVER 70% OF THE TIME.....OR THAT HOME FAV. OF 4 OR MORE POINTS ARE NOT A GOOD BET
I DID THIS LAST YEAR FOR YEARS 98..99..00..01..02.(5 YEARS)

LET'S CRUNCH THE NUMBERS....

INCLUDING PAYOFFS,THERE HAVE BEEN 1,536 GAMES
THE HOME TEAM WON 928 OF THOSE GAME STRAIGHT UP,OR 60%...
WHEN ANALYZINE THE RESULTS ATS I FOUND THE HOME TEAM COVERED 761 TIMES,OR 50% OF THE TIME....
THE AWAY TEAM COVERED 719 OR 47% AND THER WERE 55 PUSHES 3%

I BROKE IT DOWN EVEN FURTHER: HOW DOES A TEAM PLAY WHEN THE LINE IS -3.5 OR LESS....I FOUND 617 SUCH INSTANCES IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS, AND IN THOSE MATCHUPS THE HOME TEAM COVERED 310 TIMES OR JUST UNDER HALF THE TIME....AWAY TEAM COVERED 276 TIMES,OR 45% AND THERE WERE 31 PUSHES....

THERE WERE 685 GAMES WHERE THE HOME TEAM WAS FAVOR BY 4 OR MORE POINTS,AND THEY ONLY COVERED 322 TIMES 47%.....THE ROAD TEAM COVERED 348 TIMES 51% 15 PUSHES

IN SUMMARY,IF YOU'RE LOOKING TO FIND A SHORTCUT(SYS.PLAYS) TO HANDICAPPING THE NUMBER,FORGET IT......
AS YOU CAN SEE, THERE IS NO MAGIC FORMULA.THERE IS NO DECISIVE EDGE TO STRICTY BETTING THE HOME TEAM OR THE AWAY TEAM IN THE NFL..............

THE WAY IN WHICH YOU GAIN YOUR EDGE IS THROUGH RESEARCH, EVERY TEAM REACTS DIFFERENTLY IN DIFFERENT SITUATION.TODAY GAME ROSTERS CHANGE FROM YEAR TO YEAR.....AS DO THE COACHES.

THE COACH SET THE TONE FOR THE ENTIRE TEAM,FROM THE WAY THEY PRACTICE AND CONDUCT THEMSELVES,TO HOW THEY PLAY EVERY SUNDAY....

TRACK A TEAM'S PROGRESS.ARE THEY SHOWING SIGN OF IMPROVEMENT? NEVER UNDERESTIMATE EMOTION IN THESE TYPES OF GAMES STUY THE QUOTES FROM PLAYERS AND COACHES.......INFORMATION IS POWER....THE MORE YOU KNOW THE BETTER YOUR CHANCES....YOUR JOB IS TO SIFT THOUGH IT AND RETAIN THE FACTS THAT WILL HELP YOU WIN.....

DON'T FALL IN THE NUMBER TRAP(SYS. PLAY) AS IHAVE SHOWN,THER IS NO DECISIVE EDGE.....

 

[ACE-ACE]

MY OVER $2000 BETS......16-7.....+$25,305.00

MY UNDER$1300 BEST.....16-16...-$ 1015.00

WON MONEY 10 WEEKS LOST MONEY 3 WEEK....


POST EARLY ...(GOT SOME TIME OFF....DOING AS LITTLE AS I CAN)



AWAY GAME +16 MORE THAN HOME GAME THIS YEAR

FAV GAMES +1 MORE THAN THE DOG THIS YEAR

AWAY FAV IS STILL DOING GOOD 39-23

POINTS MATTER IN A GAME IS 29-192 ...STILL 15%


THE LINE...........................MY LINE

NE-11...............................-8

BUF..NO LINE....................-9.5

BALT-9.............................-2

GB-9.5.............................-6

MIN NO LINE....................-6

ALT-7.5............................-9

JAC-7..............................-8

DAL.NO LINE....................-2.5

IND-10............................-9

PIT-5.5............................-6

DEN-10.5.........................-10

CAR-5.5..........................-4

ARI-5.5...........................-7

SD-5.5............................-14

PHI-9.5...........................-7

KC.NO LINE.....................-8


TIGHT LINE GUYS!!!!

SD IS THE ONE THAT POP UP.....(THE ONLY ONE)

TIME....SD +24 VS TB +3
T/O......SD 11.....VS TB 21
LINE OFF +116 VS.....+39

TB HAS NOT PLAY THIS KIND OF TEAM.....

EVERY THING IS IN PLACE FOR SD TO WIN BY 17 OR MORE POINTS.......

MY BET IS SD...JUST DONT KNOW HOW MUCH!!!

ANY OTHER BET RIGHT NOW IS GOING TO TAKE SOME GOOD RESEARCH.....YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN....:digit:

 

[supersharp]

What about the Giants? You got Balty as only a -2 favorite. Wagerline has a 60% consensus on the Ravens, which could mean the line will go in favor of the Giants. NYG could be at least +10 at gametime. Is it because of the rookie QB you don't like the Giants?

 

[ACE-ACE]

What about the Giants? You got Balty as only a -2 favorite. Wagerline has a 60% consensus on the Ravens, which could mean the line will go in favor of the Giants. NYG could be at least +10 at gametime. Is it because of the rookie QB you don't like the Giants?

STILL LOOKING AT THAT GAME.....IT IS BECAUSE OF :

1. ROOKIE QB
2 BALT AT HOME
3. 2ND WEEK ON THE ROAD FOR GAINTS

THE GOOD THING:
TURN OVER NYG 15 VS BALT 18
TIME NYG -2 VS -13 FOR BAL


IF 60% IS ON BAL...EARLY......AND IF WE LIKE THE GAINTS....WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND HOPE IT GET TO THAT KEY "10" SPOT OR MORE....

 

[_wheredatreezat]

ACE, your lines for some reason always favor the Giants from what I remember. This team is a COMPLETE joke. Save your money, for even if they cover, you are better off laying off. They have nothing going for them. Their defense is decimated with injuries and there offense has been atrocious (sp??). Please, I have said this before, DO NOT waste your money on the Giants.

 

[_wheredatreezat]

A few more things....Portis and Co. ran all day against the Giants. WHat makes you think they can stop Baltimore, with or without Lewis? The D Line was missing 3 starters, 2 are definitely out this week, not sure about Hand.


As for the Giants O, The Raves have the best D, well, certainly good enough to keep the GIants from scoring even a single point. Yes, it's sad Giant fans, what started out as a great season for us, has turned into complete ****. Eli has a lot to learn and I wouldn't want to learn it against that D if I were him, well, at least it will be a schooling for him. Even if Eli plays well, aside from Tiki, not a single offensive player has shown that they are willign to help him out. Dropped passes, bad routes, nothing after the catch.

ACE, I am sure I won't sway your from your pick if that's what you decide to do, however, this team has thrown in the towel for the season. The Ravens are hungry, need the game and will win it.

As you say, "Do you think the Giants will win this game? Points only count in 15% of the games." No way in hell, after that performance last week, the Giants win the game, so why even bother.

GL to you.

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACE, your lines for some reason always favor the Giants from what I remember. This team is a COMPLETE joke. Save your money, for even if they cover, you are better off laying off. They have nothing going for them. Their defense is decimated with injuries and there offense has been atrocious (sp??). Please, I have said this before, DO NOT waste your money on the Giants.

I STILL HAVE BAL FAV BY 2....I ALWAY SAY BET THE TEAM THAT WILL WIN OUT RIGHT.....I DO BASE MY LINE ON ALL 13 WEEKS.....THE 1ST FIVE WEEKS THEY PLAY GREAT FOOTBALL NOW THEY LOST 5 IN A ROW.....
MY LINE IS A BASE FOR CAPPING ....YOU STILL HAVE TO TAKE IT A STEP MORE....THANKS....I MIGHT HAVE TO FINE TUNE MY LINE NEXT WEEK....

 

[_wheredatreezat]

I understand that, just wanted to give you a heads up. I watch this team weekly and read up almost daily, they suck. As for the first 5 weeks, let's break it down...


Week 1 - smoked by Phily, final score misleading
Week 2 - Beat the Skins in a close matchup, fumble reco for a TD and a 50 yd bomb to Carter or Barber...7 TO's this game also for Wash, sure give credit to the D, but this ISN"T the same D
Week 3 - Beat up on a BAD CLeveland team
Week 4 - Blew opportunity after opp against GB, yet held on to the win in GB because of the D
Week 5 - Beat up on a bad COwboy team at that point, with no runnign game or defense

They have one impressive win, against the Vikes, who were without MOss, and we have seen the difference in that team with or without Moss.

If I weren't a Giant fan, I'd be rich right now betting against them for the last 5 weeks. I don't bet with or against the heart though, because I can't cheer for my team to lose. I will lay off again, but untilt his team shows something, they are a bet against every week.

 

[_wheredatreezat]

Finally, I must say thank you for what you have done for this forum and myself over the weeks, just trying to send some help back, hope it doesn't backfire.


Treez

 

[ACE-ACE]

Finally, I must say thank you for what you have done for this forum and myself over the weeks, just trying to send some help back, hope it doesn't backfire.

Treez

I KNOW ONE THING......IM NOT THINKING ABOUT THE GAINT NO MORE....
THE POINT WILL GO AT GAME TIME TO 10.5......NO PLAY FOR ME....ONE GAME DOWN 14 MORE TO GO....:digit: ...I MAY NOT TALK ABOUT IT A LOT....BUT PLAYER LIKE YOU HAVE HELP ME MAKE A BETTER BET THAN I WOULD BY MYSELF..WE ALL FEED OF EACH OTHER.....I CAN NOT SEE EVERYTHING......(I DO TRY)........

THANKS AND GOOD LUCK...I RESPECT YOUR IN PUT...

 

[WCBias]

Ace

Quick thoughts from a Charger Fan. I don't know how your system factors in luck, smoke, and mirrors, but the SD Defense is on the verge of self destruction. The defense is wearing down in the second half, especially the defensive line. Three straight games they have won due to a lucky play. Drew Brees is not nearly as sharp in that span as he was the previous six. The coaching is also getting tighter as they are starting to play not to lose instead of full throttle, balls to the wall football for four quarters. The play calling last week in the 2nd half was abysmal. Standard Martyball - run, run, pass, punt. A killer for bettors.

The Chargers have won us both lots of money this year (I bought last week down a 1/2). Unlike Indy's recent run, the Chargers are squeeking by and it is going to catch up with them soon....if not this week, then next week at Indy. The pressure is mounting here is SD and I think the team is starting to hear footsteps. A loss will be good for this team because they need to loosen up again.

GL, keep up the good work.

 

[_wheredatreezat]

I KNOW ONE THING......IM NOT THINKING ABOUT THE GAINT NO MORE....
THE POINT WILL GO AT GAME TIME TO 10.5......NO PLAY FOR ME....ONE GAME DOWN 14 MORE TO GO....:digit: ...I MAY NOT TALK ABOUT IT A LOT....BUT PLAYER LIKE YOU HAVE HELP ME MAKE A BETTER BET THAN I WOULD BY MYSELF..WE ALL FEED OF EACH OTHER.....I CAN NOT SEE EVERYTHING......(I DO TRY)........

THANKS AND GOOD LUCK...I RESPECT YOUR IN PUT...

Ace, I certainly hope I am right, but all I am stating are facts. Anything can happen on any given Sunday, but I just don't see it with this team. I am by no means a good handicapper, just have seen this team enough to know they never were as good as their 5-2 record.

GL to you....Treez

 

[_wheredatreezat]

Ace

Quick thoughts from a Charger Fan. I don't know how your system factors in luck, smoke, and mirrors, but the SD Defense is on the verge of self destruction. The defense is wearing down in the second half, especially the defensive line. Three straight games they have won due to a lucky play. Drew Brees is not nearly as sharp in that span as he was the previous six. The coaching is also getting tighter as they are starting to play not to lose instead of full throttle, balls to the wall football for four quarters. The play calling last week in the 2nd half was abysmal. Standard Martyball - run, run, pass, punt. A killer for bettors.

The Chargers have won us both lots of money this year (I bought last week down a 1/2). Unlike Indy's recent run, the Chargers are squeeking by and it is going to catch up with them soon....if not this week, then next week at Indy. The pressure is mounting here is SD and I think the team is starting to hear footsteps. A loss will be good for this team because they need to loosen up again.

GL, keep up the good work.

The good thing for SD is TB plays much better at home, as their only road victory, which also is the only game they were within 6 points, came against the Saints, and we know how much they suck.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Wc Bias

This Is How I See The Game....every Team Reacts Differently In Different Situation....

All The Stat Fav Sd In The (off Stat)

Def Stat.....the Best One Is The Rushyard......tb Give Up 123 ...sd Give Up 78....

Sd Will Run More In This Game.....tb Will Not Stop Them...

Time A Team Has The Ball +24min For Sd....vs +3 For Tb....

Ball Control...sd....

And They Win The Turn Over Game.....sd 11 Vs Tb 21.....

The Match Up....the Way One Team Play Vs The Other....fav....sd....

And Playing At Home Is A Plus.....

But I Know What You Are Saying About The 2nd Half Of The Game...
Its Not Enought To Keep Me Away From This Game.....

 

[MERLIN]

ACE,,

WC Bias has some good points on SD as i too have been following the money train. Sd is getting more conservative in the way they play ( Marty ball) and when you have to run and punt the defense is on the field more, which is why they are tiring in the 4th. The defense has come up with some lucky plays for SD the past few weeks to pull them out. ( as stated)

I too see this game where SD will have too run, run ,run as TB is weak in the defensive rush, but can defend the pass well. The sportsbooks have doubled the line from 3 to 6 this week from last week against another decent defense.

Not saying that SD cannot do it, but your stats may be a little misleading as TB has been improving from week to week while SD is going to conservative mode. ( Feeling the pressure to win)

I will break the game down in better detail before making a decision, but these were just my thoughts.

GL in whatever you play ACE, your good at what you do!

MERLIN

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACE,,

WC Bias has some good points on SD as i too have been following the money train. Sd is getting more conservative in the way they play ( Marty ball) and when you have to run and punt the defense is on the field more, which is why they are tiring in the 4th.......

the defense is on the field more......?

the last 4 time sd played............................................1ST H..VS 2ND H

N.O. GAME........37MIN FOR SD VS 23 MIN FOR NO..42-14..20-7 VS 23-10

OAK GAME........38 MIN..........VS 22MIN...............23-17..13-7 VS 10-10

KC GAME..........37 MIN...........VS 23 MIN............34-31..14-17 VS 20-14

DEN GAME........32 MIN............VS 28MIN............20-17...17-7 VS 3-10

THE (OFF) IS ON THE FIELD MORE THAN THE (DEF).....

AND IN THE 2ND HALF OF THE LAST 4 GAMES SD DEFENSE HAVE NOT ALLOW MORE THAN 14 POINT AND THAT WAS ONLY ONCE IN A HIGH SCORING GAME...
I SEE IN THE DENVER GAME THAT THE DEFENSE GOT IN THE CONSERVATIVE MODE....I WILL GIVE YOU THAT...

THE LAST TWO TIME TB ON THE ROAD

..............................................IST HALF....VS 2ND HALF
WEEK 10 ATL GAME 14-24...............7-17.........VS 7-7
WEEK 12 CAR GAME..14-21...............7-14.........VS 7-7

HELL....SD DEFENSE ONLY HAS TO PLAY GOOD THE 1ST HALF....AND IF THEY GO TO THE "CONSERVATIVE MODE" SO WHAT!!!....THE OFFENSE CAN TAKE IT FROM THERE:drink:

 

[jwblue]

Quoting you ACE-ACE,

"TRACK A TEAM'S PROGRESS.ARE THEY SHOWING SIGN OF IMPROVEMENT? NEVER UNDERESTIMATE EMOTION IN THESE TYPES OF GAMES STUY THE QUOTES FROM PLAYERS AND COACHES.......INFORMATION IS POWER....THE MORE YOU KNOW THE BETTER YOUR CHANCES....YOUR JOB IS TO SIFT THOUGH IT AND RETAIN THE FACTS THAT WILL HELP YOU WIN....."



How about Minnesota. Seattle has to be down in the dumps after last nights choke job. They are going downhill. That make 2 times they have done this (1st time was against the Rams). For whatever reason, this team has no heart.

Progress? This team didn't even show up against Buffalo; and now last night.
Minnesota has to be angry after last weeks loss to Chicago. Seattle's defense right now doesn't look like they could stop a high school offense.

Seattle's wins this year: Miami, San Francisco, Carolina, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans. A combined winning % of .3333.

Responding to your post on money management. I am throwing mm out the window this weekend and pouring money into the Vikings.

One of my favorite plays this week is the under in the Tampa Bay/San Diego game.

IS

 

[ACE-ACE]

Inspades

OUT OF THE TWO GAME....I LIKE THE UNDER ALOT IN THE SD GAME....

THE MIN GAME....

.......PF-PA
SEA 23-22
MIN 25-23 DEAD LOCK...

BUT THE BIG ONE FOR ME IS THE T/O PART OF THE GAME

SEA+10 VS MIN-4................

I SEE WHAT YOU SEE.....MIN SURE COVER.....
BEFORE THE LINE COME OUT ON THE GAME....I HAD IT RIGHT ON-6.......
THE BETTING ON THIS GAME WILL BRING THE LINE UP TO AT LESS -7.....

BUT ONE OF MY RULES ARE NOT TO TAKE A TEAM THAT LOSES THE T/O GAME BY MORE THAN 7....
AS YOU SEE ITS 14.....

I WROTE YOU DOWN TO SEE WHAT YOU DO.....

 

[ACE-ACE]

MY BET ON THE SD-5.5 $3000.00

UNDER 43 1/2......FREE HOOK (GG) FOR $2000.00
SD GAME

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

SMALL BET WILL COME LATER....:drink:

 

[WCBias]

Ace...I should have added that the past three teams SD has played have more-or-less been passing teams...TB will make a concerted effort to run, which does help the chargers D and supports your numbers. As for time of possession...that really is a useless stat when SD's defense gives up touchdowns in three or four plays. They can get just as tired running backward 80 yards on three plays as they can getting worn down on 10.

I think my play here will be the first half SD-3...they have come out strong just about every week, the defensive front is getting better push at the line, and the Chargers are way more aggressive and creative on offense in the first half.

Good luck and great job by the way...I've followed your info all year. I'm going to go play Madden 2005 and see who wins (I'm chargers)