Exbookie Arena Football Week 2

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AFLGuru said:
Hey, great stuff Roxy and Brewers. But Brewers, I've got a question for you regarding your analysis...

--Are you using opening lines, or closing lines for the totals? If it's closing lines like I suspect, your information is going to be slightly skewed. Remember, for the amount of money coming in on these games, you have a greater likelihood that a game will go off a TD higher than when it started. Case in point is this past week's New York/Dallas game. If it weren't for a holding penalty at the end of the game, I would've gotten over 104.5, which was the opening line. However, if you waited until the closing line of 110.5, you had no chance. I'd be very surprised more often than not if the losing number in the AFL is the CLOSING number, and that the winning number is the opening line (in terms of overs and unders).

--AFLGuru:toast:

Guru, with the line moves it is important to know whether their data is collected from opening or closing lines, but the information wouldn't be sqewed either way. You simply apply the system to whichever number you collect your data from.
 

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Two-Niner--

The reason I say the numbers can be skewed are already being shown again this week. I posted over 99 in the San Jose/New Orleans game. The o/u is at 103 now, and surely will rise to about 105 at some point. If the opening line is the number, this game would be a lay off because it's at that magical number of 99. However, if I bet the game at over 99 and the game gets to 101, it makes a massive difference whether you got an opening line or a closing line. I feel that the reason these games that are above 99 are turning out under games is because the general public is betting the numbers too high... that is to say if the closing numbers are the numbers used like I am assuming.

--AFLGuru
 

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I use closing lines form Don Best and from Stat Fox...

I don't think they are skewed either...A PERFECT example is that New York game...The public bet it all the way up to 110.5, so if you use the 2 numbers ACE-ACE gave me to crunch, 90 and 110, it reached the 110 number, so as soon as that happens, BANG, you bet the game Under, and like you just said, if you got the opening line, you got screwed by a penalty, but if you got the closing line, you had "NO CHANCE", which is perfect, if you ask me...
 

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These stats are definitely worth hanging onto Brewers. I'll consider this throughout the season. Please keep me updated on a weekly basis on someone's AFL thread. I hate jumping anything that's hitting at 70+%, as rule of thumb says that's going down fast. But please keep me updated, as I will consider this throughout the year.

--AFLGuru
 

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Yeah, me too, man...It scares me to jump in now...I'm a handicapper, like you, but I love the NBA and NHL the same way you love the AFL, so it's very hard for me to blindly takes games like this without handicapping the games first based strictly on 3-year numbers hitting 68%...Very hard for me to just jump right in here and hop on this "68% bandwagon"...Don't know if I can, and if I do, I'll bet very small on it...

However, I WILL be watching out for your picks and ACE-ACE's picks, realizing that as a fellow handicapper, you are handicapping games based on the OPENING line...I cannot even name an AFL team other then the Philadelphia Soul (since I am near Philly) and openly admit I am clueless about the AFL...But I'll watch you and ACE-ACE and we'll see if we cannot change that over time...

GL...
 

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Brewers--

Remember one other thing... I'm 8-3 with straight wagers and have made 7 wagers off of the "opening" line. In those wagers I am 5-1-1... however, against the closing line, I'm 5-2. More often than not, the closing line will also cover if the opening line does. I don't suggest waiting on it (for example, the Predators are now GIVING THREE AND A HALF POINTS from GETTING TWO), but more often than not, that's the case. Ask me anything about the AFL... I'll probably have an answer for you, and if I don't, I'll find one.

--AFLGuru
 

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You got it...I'll be reading your posts, for sure...Thanx...
 

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Hey... Brewers

You Have Been Busy I See.....i Was Only Gone 24 Hr.....i Like What I See...

I'm Also A Data Or Math Person (i Do Tax Return For People For Fun....no Money) I Do My Line Base On Stat.....i Know How Much Money I Took In And Where Each Penny When!!!!

Math And Data Makes The World Go Around...

With The Data On Total More Than 99 1/2..=46-23...that 66%...plus Some Good Capping From The Boys(me And Afl Guru) There Room To Make It Go As High As 80%...would'nt That Be Nice!!!

Someday I Would Like To Do "my Line" (like I Do In The Nfl) To College Football Games Over 140 Teams...plus 32 For Nfl...wow!!!
To Bad You Cant Download The Stat You Want ....with The Weight You Want On Each Stat...each Week.....with One Push Of A Button.

What Kind Of Work Do You Do?
Also What Is Your Goal(with The Data You Have)?

You Need To Start A Thread On " Ask The Data Man"
That Would Help Alot Of Player Out There...

I See The Line Up...let Me Do Some Work

Good Job


Ace
 

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ACE:

Is there any way you can copy-and-paste the info you need from online boxscores??...That's my main weapon, the copy-and-paste function...A God-send...I don't enter very much data manually at all for my NBA database, it's 98% copy-and-paste and formulas in MS-Excel...My NBA database is quite formidable, I must say, and I have even incorporated a new number into it this year thanx to you, the "Vegas number off by" stat...Haven't had a chance to study the effects of this number yet, but the Chicago Bulls currently have the highest "Vegas number off by" number for the year at 162 before tonight's game, as they peaked at 186 before their current NC5 (not cover 5 games in a row) streak...I have sent samples of my NBA database to people here at the RX already...

This newly created AFL database was 98% copy-and-paste from online sources...I have an NFL database that will soon go back 20+ years (I currently have it back to the 2000 season)...My NBA numbers go back to 1987...I have my personal paper charts that go back about 12 years in the NBA...I have an NCAA football database that goes back 20+ years...I'm working on an NCAA hoops database and will eventually get started on an NHL database...I've been busy the past year...

What do I do?...Well, I got laid off on Valentine's Day of 2003 from my computer job, and with the job market being as horrible as it was (is), my handicapping/gambling hobby became a full-time job...I made the leap, and so far, so good (fingers crossed)...I love the idea of no boss, setting my own hours and waking up whenever I want to...Haven't had a lot of use for my alarm clock the last 2 years...This allows me to have the time to build these databases...

My goal for this data?...

To become an even better handicapper...I only handicap the 4 major professional sports...I have a friend who is a very serious NCAA hoops and football handicapper, so I coat-tail him and a few online people for NCAA stuff...I want to expand my horizons into the AFL and WNBA, and eventually Tennis and Soccer, and I do want to cap the NCAAs myself again...

I am a trends guy, and no sport has more situational trends than the NBA...No sport even comes close...That's why I have been very successful at the NBA for 20+ years...That's my bread and butter, but I feel I can be even better once I have my NBA database "done", so I can go back to 1987 and study patterns and numbers and data and numbers and data, to make myself BETTER...I want to take myself to another level...I don't just want to be Good, I want to be Great at the NBA, and I want to get better at ALL of the sports out there...

I want all of this data because I want to crunch the numbers myself...I have seen these online databases before that everyone else uses, the ones where you can make queries to obtain data, but that to me is a waste of my time...I want the raw data for MYSELF, so I can manipulate it MYSELF and look at it myself in whatever form I want to crunch it into...

I LOVE numbers...I LOVE stats...Less than a year out of a college, I wrote a computer program for blackjack...I went to Atlantic City once a week for 5 weeks to see how everyone played (circa 1990)...How did they play back then??...Everybody, and I mean EVERYBODY was a "book player" back then...95% of the people...They went STRICTLY by the book...Player has a 13, Dealer has 18, you hit...Player has 16, Dealer has 17, you hit...Player has 14, Dealer has 20, you hit...Player has 8-8, Dealer has whatever, you split...Everyone played that way...So in the program I wrote, I used an 8-deck game (like AC), 7 players at a table, and everyone was a strict book player...And then I would sit down at the table and play my style, and while hands were being played, in the background, I would have tabulations running of all of the hands being played at the table...So then I would go to bed and leave the computer on and let my computer program run with all the Book players playing at the table for hours and hours on end, so after a while, I compiled several hundred-thousand hands with statistics on what happened with all of those hands...And you know what I found??...That it is NOT a good idea to hit if Player has 13-to-16 against a dealer 17...I Stay...And there are many other instances...I almost never hit on a 15 or 16 against anything...The dealer busts more times than you think...I had all the print-outs and the statistical breakdowns at one time, but I don't think I have the data any more...

But enough of that...suffice it to say that I love trends, I love stats, I love data, and I love handicapping games for a living...My goal is to improve...I've been gambling as a hobby for 20+ years, have had SportsBooks accounts since 1996, my junior year in High School, a buddy and I used to bet EVERY Pro game on the board every day for a $1 a game and my senior year we did it for $2 a game...

I love this sh^t, and I want to IMPROVE with each and every passing year that goes by as a handicapper...Knowledge is power, so I am looking to increase my knowledge base...

You had one HELL OF A YEAR this season in the NFL...I congratulate you...You were awesome...I should've used more of your selections, as I was up a little at the end of the season, but only marginally...I play 4-team teasers mostly, with occasional straight bets, and I was way up through OCT, but then had a rough NOV and DEC and finished a little ahead in the NFL...So I started the NFL database because I don't want to have a great half-a-year and then fade, I want to be rock solid all season next year...My sides plays were HORRIBLE this year...Worst year in quite a while...My totals were golden, but that was it...

Why do I want all this data??...To get BETTER...Pure and simple...

I started the 2001 AFL season and man, there are some CRAZY BANANAS scores for that season...Crazy high-scoring games...CRAZY...

Yeah, if you want data, I got it, you are right about that ACE-ACE...Your NFL data, do you enter it into MS-Excel or something else??...You should let me know how you go about entering it...Copy-and-pasting may be the way to go...Quicker...Soon I will have an NFL database with every boxscore going back 20+ years...Now there is some powerful info...Can you imagine having all of the data you have for the NFL going back that many years, ACE?...

I will be tailing you and AFLGuru until I get up to speed this season in the AFL, you can count on it, so Good Luck to both of you...
 

RELAX,im just having fun
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is there a reason why you dont post nba plays in the forum brewers7? im a huge believer in trends also but the nba is my biggest weakness. i need help there and follow steam maker,mike chad and tatehill and when his system comes up wildcat. theerodfather is a great one.theres a few i love following. but you believe in what i believe in so go post your plays and id certainly follow. well i see aflguru and ace ace have seperate afl plays so i better see what they agree on.
 

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degenerategambler said:
rg, did you post last year on wnba? I would love some insight on wnba as I am like most when it come to that league....Clueless...
no degenerategambler i didnt post wnba here last year. in fact id only been here a couple months and followed some very clueless people who ruined me in a very short time so i left. i came back a couple months ago and i know my way around the rx now. plus its hard to be taken seriously here if your a chick in a mans sports forum. i post plays in the college basketball forum and i think now most people see i really do handicapp my sports as best i can. i am not a member of any offshore sportsbook and only make bets with cash accross the border. i asked what a unit was and got crufified so i only post among friends now which is guys seen in this thread and ive made really good friends here. handicappers are the most driven focused people around and make damn good friends.i'll post wnba this year tho.just rember homecourt is key in wnba. bet the dog vs dd favs and bet the favs if thier in single digits.
 

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geeze said:
Roxy,


This is a serious question.

You said to lay off the four days of the month that women play, but that implies they are all "incapacitated" at the same time.

Wouldn't they be off their game, so to speak, at various individual times rather than all together at the same time, thus rendering that information inapplicable?

I'm not being facetious, just trying to pose a good question, from a clueless old man.

Thank you.
its a fair question geeze. the wnba is carefull to schedule around what they percieve to be sensitive parts of each month. ive heard that every player is polled by thier teams as to when thier cycles are. the league takes those numbers and averages out the days the majority of the league will be cycling. now everyones different but players and coaches manage this very well. once the season begins youll notice there will be 3 or 4 games each night.check injury reports and if theres an injury youll see whos probable etc just like any other report. they list ankle,knee,flu what ever just like normal. but then , for example the month of june youll see 1 game the 20th,2 games the 21st,and 1 game the 23rd. the rest of the league is idle. but during that time look at the injury report. youll see only this:sayles-doubtfull. no other reason given. its cramping and such they just cant post for obvious reasons. same for july. the 20th 1 game,the 21st 3 games,and the 22nd 2 games. and those that are playing youll see a dramatic decrease in point production on both sides. games in the high 130s drop to about 100 pts per game. its very noticeable. i never bet the 3rd week EVER. you guys know were built different and female athletes have curses too. i played varsity basketball and volleyball and let me tell you the one place to be thats worse than hell is a girls lockeroom after a loss when 6 or more are bleeding.lol.:monsters- ~RG
 

t3a

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roxygurl said:
i know my way around the rx now. plus its hard to be taken seriously here if your a chick in a mans sports forum. .


rg, could you run down to Rubio's and pick me up a 6 pack of fish tacos...j/k


I think anyone who has an informed opinion or shows they do some homework will be taken seriously. You MUST get online though, going to tj is crazy in this day and age. I am gonna post something in the newbie room (no direspect to you) about some sites or things you might want to consider
 

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Brewers--

One other thing I neglected to mention to you before that just came to my head a few hours ago. Remember when you're dealing with these o/u's that the rules change in the AFL every year. Games this year are going to be higher scoring in general because there is an added approximately 6-8 minutes of game time to everything now that they don't run the clock before a kickoff like they did the past two years. Other rule changes that have come about...

You mentioned 2001 being a crazy high scoring year... You're right. Reason for that? It was the year that offsides became a 5 yard penalty and an automatic first down. They abolished the 3 yard penalty and the 8 yard penalty and went straight to 5 and 10 yards as they have them today. After the 2001 season they added the running clock before the kickoff to try to decrease scoring a bit. The plan worked in 2002, but in 2003, the infamous 30-7 Orlando-Georgia game stopped that, when Orlando took 4 straight delay of game penalties on a kickoff to run over 2 minutes off the clock before Georgia got the ball on every kickoff, including the opening kick. Now we're back to no clock running on the kickoff. It doesn't seem to me as though Vegas has taken into consideration the factors involved with that new rule change, but it definitely has made a difference in the few games I've had a chance to physically watch. On average, this will probably add about 4 points to a given game (though I know statistically it's damn near impossible to make it to an exact 4, but you get my drift about averages).

--AFLGuru:toast:
Tampa Still Sucks (gonna be my trademark for the week)
 

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RG:

I did notice last year that there were stretches where there were a lot of easy Unders in the WNBA, but never would've guessed that as the reason...Interesting...I have heard that when females live together they tend to get their cycles together...

Anyway, I have seen that link already that you sent me, and that's not what I am looking for...I am looking for the raw data...

And, I did post in the NBA forum here every day since Day 3 of the NBA Preseason, right up until about a month ago, and then I hit my first 4-day slump of the season and took a break from posting...And during the break, I found I was happy to have the break...I posted at 5 different websites for 3+ months straight, every day, I played in about 6 or 7 online NBA contests daily, plus I gotta make my bets...You have no idea how hectic it got for me between 6:00 and 7:00 every day...I now only post at ONE forum, I stopped playing about 3 or 4 online contests, and I enjoy a little more free time every day...It's less hectic...Maybe I'll post again here after the All-Star break, I dunno...I had a GREAT 3 months until I hit that one bad 4-day skid...We'll see...I was 2-0 tonight (Dal Over (lucky) and Phoe Over (easy)) but I think forum rules prohibit me from posting what the other forum is I posted these plays at, so I won't mention them here, but that 2-0 can be verified...Although I did lose a bet on the PHOE Over for the 1Q by 1/2 a point, and wouldn't you know, Steve Nash (Mr. 90% from the line) missed a FT in that quarter which cost me in the end...

And RG, you do seem to know what you're talking about, so I will look forward to your plays in the WNBA...As far as me posting NBA here again, we'll see...Maybe in a few weeks...

here are some of my sources for Vegas lines data:

http://www.statfox.com/cbb/logs/

http://www.goldsheet.com/ click on "past scores and ratings" on the left

www.donbest.com

www.covers.com

If anyone can think of other ones, better ones, let me know...

And I am also looking for NBA score by quarter and/or boxscores online, going back pre-2001...

Thanx...
 

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t3fa said:
rg, could you run down to Rubio's and pick me up a 6 pack of fish tacos...j/k


I think anyone who has an informed opinion or shows they do some homework will be taken seriously. You MUST get online though, going to tj is crazy in this day and age. I am gonna post something in the newbie room (no direspect to you) about some sites or things you might want to consider
i love rubios!:103631605 and trust me t3fa the border is the most frightning place on earth now.there is no border.if i told you whats really going on there your hair would curl or fall out from utter disbelief. its bad enough ive emailed my concerns to the white house a few times. and i have no political interest what so ever.but trust me when i steal a famous movie line: be afraid, be very afraid.something nightmarishly horrible will happen here making 9/11 look like disneylands magical parade.thanks mr president.did the sonics cover? back to reality and the sports i love:biggrinin ~RG
 

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AFLGuru:

I will keep this mind as I feel my way through this season...Be interesting to see if Vegas accounts for this or not...Be interesting to see how this effects that 68% trend we have going here since Week 4 of the 2002 season...

I'll be crunching the numbers all year and checking out your picks and Ace-Ace's picks and betting very small until I think I have a grasp on the AFL...I've been around long enough to realize what you pointed out before: not to jump in blindly feet-first just because a 68% trend has been found...That thing may reverse itself at any time...But you can bet that I'll be tracking every total less than 90 and greater than 110 for this season...

GL...
 

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Brewers, you are one of the few bb posters i liked to read. We are 3rd and 4th in the nba contest in a good battle.catch your breath and come back to the nba forum!

:suomi:
 

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Sh^t, you know what, I haven't posted in that contest the last 4 days...And I hit my #1 game all 4 days...Wouldn't you know it...I'll play the contest tomorrow and probably go 0-1 or 0-3...

But thanx for the compliment, Mr. Leisure, I appreciate it and GL to you in that contest...Maybe I'll find my way back there and post soon, we'll see...
 

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