Exbookie Arena Football Week 2

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EX BOOKIE
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brewers) I LOVE numbers...I LOVE stats...Less than a year out of a college said:
MY NUMBER ONE LOVE IS BLACKJACK (CARD COUNTER)....DID YOU USE CARD COUNTING IN THIS PROGRAM??.....A CARD COUNTER KNOW IF THE DEALER HAS A 17 AND THE PLAYER COUNT IS 13-16....AND THE COUNT IS PLUS 2 MORE NOT TO TAKE THE HIT.....LET THE DEARLER BUSTED!!
BUT....IF THE COUNT IS MINUS 4 (LETS SAY).....THAN YOU KNOW THERE ARE LITTLE ONE THAT ARE COMING ....I WOULD TAKE THE HIT....
FROM MAR-AUG....I PLAY ALOT....LAST YEAR WINNING OVER $30,000
I LOVE THE MATH AND THE MECHANICS OF THE GAME....I EVEN GOT A F150 FORD TRUCK 22INCH RIM WITH A BLACKJACK TABLE SCENT ON THE BACK OF THE TAIL GATE!!!....AND MY PLATE READS: ACE BJ

MAN!!!! I WISH YOU HAD THAT STATISTICAL BREAKDOWNS

BREWER ...YOU ARE A MAN OF MANY TALENTS....


ACE
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Ace-Ace...

I don't recall if I had the card count included in the statistical break-downs for my blackjack program or not...

I may have some talent, but I wish I had your NFL prowess...I have decent runs in the NFL every year, but have never been able to put it together for a full season...Never...Not like you did this past year...I am impressed with how you nailed winners ALL YEAR LONG...I plan on doing that next year...I am dying for a break-out year in the NFL...With me and the NFL, though, it's like the Eagles always say: Maybe next year...I just hope the NHL resumes next year...I miss that cash-cow...

I have a friend who is acard-counter and he and I went to AC about 4 years ago when he was visiting from San Diego and he would hover at a table and wait for a favorable count and he would have me hovering at another table and I would signal him if the count got to about +25 or +30...It was a fun night...I love the mechanics of the game, too, but what drives me crazy at AC are the people at the tables...I am NOT a "book player", so when I don't hit on 14, 15, or 16 against a dealer 18, 19 or 20, some people actually get pissed at me, because I pass on the 10 that would've busted me to them, who hit on the same hand I had and bust...Then they ***** under their breath about how I have no clue how to play as the dealer goes bust...

And if I have the anchor seat, forget it...It doesn't matter how many times I save the table and make the dealer go bust by not hitting when the table thinks I should've hit, they only remember the 1 or 2 times it DOESN'T work and the dealer gets 20 or 21 to beat the table...So when I go, I play small stakes and just for fun...

GL...
 

You play... to win... the game
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Brewers:

I actually got thrown off of a blackjack table on a cruise ship. Most of the week, people were giving me a hard time because I won't ever hit 16 and don't usually hit 15, especially if the face cards are due. Meanwhile, here are these guys hitting on 13 with a dealer 5 showing and no one says anything about that... no one cares that THAT was the card that screwed up the table... just when the last guy to play screws it up.

Anyway, I had two 7s and the dealer had a 9 showing. The three cards before me all came up very low (I believe 5 was the highest card). I was the last to act, though I wasn't 3rd base, as 3rd base and the guy behind me both had 20. I refused to take the hit. Dealer turns over a deuce and pulls what would've been my bust 10. Table goes irate. Next card: queen. Made a TON of difference there.

Next hand... no joke, very next hand... last hand of the shoe. Almost the same situation comes up, except I have 13 and the dealer has an 8. First off, the lady in front of me split her 7s and actually got away with it, but that's a different story. She ended up with 3 hands and yanked 21 on all of them somehow. Lucky as anything. Me, again going to play last due to a blackjack and a 19 behind me, stuck again on 13. Dealer turns over another deuce and pulls a 9. Table goes irate. The pit boss threw me off the table because I was "causing too much commotion." For sh*ts and giggles, they turned over the next card.... ace. Gee, once again, a lot of difference.

So I went over and played one hand of 3 card poker with $10 up on each slot. One hand: straight flush. Something like $480. Got up immediately and sat down at a nickel slot machine to kill time... my last 5 nickels turned into $250. Guess it served the casino right to stop me from losing money at one table to go win it at the next...

Anyway, it was a funny story that I figure you'd appreciate. I love how this thread just keeps kicking a week later. Hilarious.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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That is funny, AND very typical of these "Book" players...Anyone who deviates from the "Book" is frowned upon...I've seen at least 2 or 3 people with cheat sheets they pull out at the table if they have a hand they're not sure what to do with...Unreal...
 

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roxy -

You have some interesting insights on WNBA. Have you done any hard-core statistical work on it? Do you have a decent database?
 

RELAX,im just having fun
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daringly said:
roxy -

You have some interesting insights on WNBA. Have you done any hard-core statistical work on it? Do you have a decent database?
thank you daringly. ive had great interest in the wnba for awhile now and began capping and betting on it just last year. its a sport the oddsmakers overlook focusing on the baseball and coming football season opening the door to lineflaws everyday. i have a computer programmer friend who works for the navy whom ive enlisted his help to create a database. hes experimenting with it now with the nba and its having great success so once the wnba season begins we will incorporate my lines with what he comes up with. like ace ace i make my own lines for any sport i bet. college football and basketball are my best. no one bets on the wnba and i made filthy money on it last year.gl.~RG
 

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Brewers7,AflGuru

You guys are idiots, if I was sitting at your table I would have been pisst also.
Since yall keep so many stats ATS, tell me how many hands of blackjack you win staying on 14,15,16, against a dealer up card of 7,8,9. Why do think the house hits until it has 17 or better. You play against the house not against the players, take card for the team.
 

You play... to win... the game
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Lol... just stop it. If you can't do simple math in your head, you're the idiot.

So I'll give you a small sample of what you're missing out on...

I have 16. Dealer has a face showing.

I have 5 cards that do me any good, and 8 that bust me (38.5% chance of not busting)

If the dealer has a face showing, 7 times out of 12 times he doesn't have to take another card (41.67% chance of having to draw again). More often than not (actually just under 85% of the time) the dealer busts after having to draw again. That being said, 35.4% of the time, the dealer is going to bust. Now, you say, take the hit. Okay, what if you land on 17? Dealer beats that more often than anything else. The numbers decrease dramatically as your number gets lower.

It's a house game, and if you play by the rules that the house wrote, you're going to lose... and I know that Brewers will back me up on this one.

--AFLGuru
 

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Just to end the blackjack war, so we can get back to making $$$ in AFL. If you have been counting cards and the count is high enough then yes you can stand on 15 vs. 17 etc and it is the right play. But if you haven't it's not the correct defualt play. Standing 16 isn't terrible though, and people are dumb if they get mad at you. How you play doesn't effect them, like you said... they never remember the times your play works out for the table! And the casinos didn't write the book on how to play basic strategy. They were making A LOT more money before it was introduced. More importantly there is no such freaking thing as "taking a card for the team" (unless you know what the next card will be) . IT DOESN"T MATTER WHAT THE GUY AT 3RD BASE DOES. The next card is no more likely than the following to bust or help the dealer. Anyone that doesn't understand this cannot be a winning gambler.
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Bj...

Two-Niner, I will agree with that to a point, for sure...But JUST TRY explaining that to the MORONS at the table who didn't like what you did at the anchor seat and then the dealer hits a 21...You'll NEVER convince John Q Public of that, trust me...

Yes, I will back you up on that one AFLGuru...

And yes, there is no point in turning this into a blackjack argument, but this "idiot" leaves the table UP money a helluva a lot more times than I ever leave DOWN...And the real "idiots" at the Blackjack table are the ones who hit on 14, 15, 16 and (even 13 sometimes) against a dealer 7 or 8...Also, the dealer busts more times than you think with a 10 showing...But hey, I realize it's impossible to educate the know-it-alls out there...

Just remember one thing:

It's impossible to win a hand after you busted...
an_light.gif
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Bj...

Yeah, I'm the "idiot", but for all you BJ gurus out there, doesn't it suck to see the dealer bust AFTER you busted??...And doesn't it especially suck when it happens a few times in a row??...Or even 3 hands out of 10??...
an_light.gif


That happens to me maybe 2 times every 100 hands...But what do I know??...
 

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