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ERockMoney 2023 NFL Outlook
- Thread starter ERockMoney
- Start date
The model is 22-24-2 on sides and 24-19-5 on totals thus far. As mentioned previously, the results over the first four weeks of a season have been close to a 50/50 split over the years. This weeks numbers are:
DET -9 / 48 (actual -1.5/46)
ATL -3 / 35.5 (JAX -3/43.5)
BUF -6 / 51 (-2.5/54.5)
MIN -5.5 / 45 (-3.5/45.5)
CHI -5.5 / 52 (DEN -3/46)
PIT -2.5 / 46.5 (-3/42)
LAR -4.5 / 42.5 (IND -1/46.5)
NO -3 / 36 (-3/40.5)
PHI -14 / 46.5 (-8.5/43.5)
TN PK / 36 (CIN -2.5/41)
LAC -11 / 44.5 (-5.5/48.5)
DAL -3.5 / 36.5 (-7/43)
SF -11 / 40 (-14/44)
KC -6.5 / 39 (-9.5/42.5)
NYG -4.5 / 58 (-1/47)
Continued success.
DET -9 / 48 (actual -1.5/46)
ATL -3 / 35.5 (JAX -3/43.5)
BUF -6 / 51 (-2.5/54.5)
MIN -5.5 / 45 (-3.5/45.5)
CHI -5.5 / 52 (DEN -3/46)
PIT -2.5 / 46.5 (-3/42)
LAR -4.5 / 42.5 (IND -1/46.5)
NO -3 / 36 (-3/40.5)
PHI -14 / 46.5 (-8.5/43.5)
TN PK / 36 (CIN -2.5/41)
LAC -11 / 44.5 (-5.5/48.5)
DAL -3.5 / 36.5 (-7/43)
SF -11 / 40 (-14/44)
KC -6.5 / 39 (-9.5/42.5)
NYG -4.5 / 58 (-1/47)
Continued success.
From a DFS perspective, model is projecting around a 28-19 score in favor of the Lions with Detroit out gaining Green Bay 442-264 with Goff going for 313 with 129 on the ground for the Lions and Love at 184 with 80 on the ground for the Pack.
Take these figures with caution, still a bit too early in the season to have much confidence in the projections.
Take these figures with caution, still a bit too early in the season to have much confidence in the projections.
Model projections: (points, total yards, passing, rushing)
ATL 19.25, 293 (160/133)
JAX 16.25, 304 (216/88)
MIA 22.5, 476 (313/163)
BUF 28.5, 367 (224/143)
MIN 25.25, 384 (321/63)
CAR 19.75, 325 (217/108)
DEN 23.25, 409 (295/114)
CHI 28.75, 340 (202/138)
BLT 14.25, 238 (130/108)
CLE 21.25, 328 (184/144)
PIT 24.5, 357 (270/87)
HOU 22, 374 (298/76)
LAR 23.5, 383 (296/87)
IND 19, 285 (187/98)
TB 16.5, 259 (188/71)
NO 19.5, 323 (227/96)
WSH 16.25, 227 (143/84)
PHI 30.25, 360 (186/174)
CIN 18, 309 (221/88)
TEN 18, 263 (164/99)
LV 16.75, 306 (240/66)
LAC 27.75, 401 (297, 104)
NE 16.5, 327 (225/102)
DAL 19, 210 (123/87)
AZ 14.5, 303 (159/144)
SF 25.5, 456 (270/186)
KC 22.75, 363 (256/107)
NYJ 16.25, 253 (150/103)
SEA 26.75, 362 (248/114)
NYG 31.25, 348 (227/121)
Continued success.
ATL 19.25, 293 (160/133)
JAX 16.25, 304 (216/88)
MIA 22.5, 476 (313/163)
BUF 28.5, 367 (224/143)
MIN 25.25, 384 (321/63)
CAR 19.75, 325 (217/108)
DEN 23.25, 409 (295/114)
CHI 28.75, 340 (202/138)
BLT 14.25, 238 (130/108)
CLE 21.25, 328 (184/144)
PIT 24.5, 357 (270/87)
HOU 22, 374 (298/76)
LAR 23.5, 383 (296/87)
IND 19, 285 (187/98)
TB 16.5, 259 (188/71)
NO 19.5, 323 (227/96)
WSH 16.25, 227 (143/84)
PHI 30.25, 360 (186/174)
CIN 18, 309 (221/88)
TEN 18, 263 (164/99)
LV 16.75, 306 (240/66)
LAC 27.75, 401 (297, 104)
NE 16.5, 327 (225/102)
DAL 19, 210 (123/87)
AZ 14.5, 303 (159/144)
SF 25.5, 456 (270/186)
KC 22.75, 363 (256/107)
NYJ 16.25, 253 (150/103)
SEA 26.75, 362 (248/114)
NYG 31.25, 348 (227/121)
Continued success.
6-1 on the week, needed that and wiped out nearly all my losses thus far on the season. The model, still in that first month window, which historically hasn’t been reliable, went 9-5-1 on sides and 10-5 on totals. Liked NYG and Over tonight.
I have some other metrics I use which push heavily toward the Hawks, so either Hawks or pass tonight. Nearly everything I utilize is pointing towards the Over, so I’ll bite.
-0.861
279 SEA/NYG O 47 (-105)
Continued success.
I have some other metrics I use which push heavily toward the Hawks, so either Hawks or pass tonight. Nearly everything I utilize is pointing towards the Over, so I’ll bite.
-0.861
279 SEA/NYG O 47 (-105)
Continued success.
The model is through the first four weeks, which is typically a crapshoot. To date, 31-30-3 on sides and 34-25-5 on totals. By week 5 the data starts to become more reliable, but still in its infancy. As stated previously, data and statistics only can go so far, this certainly isn’t the end all be all, just one tool in the arsenal.
WSH -14 / 43.5 (actual -6/44.5)
BUF -14 / 36.5 (-5.5/48.5)
HOU -4.5 / 35.5 (ATL -2/41.5)
DET -16 / 49.5 (-9.5/45)
IND -5.5 / 42.5 (TEN -1/42.5)
MIA -17.5 / 50 (-11/48.5)
NE -4 / 32.5 (-1/40)
BLT -6.5 / 41 (-4/38)
AZ -5.5 / 39.5 (CIN -3/44.5)
LAR -3.5 / 49 (PHI -4/50.5)
NYJ -12 / 47.5 (DEN -1/43.5)
KC -4 / 38.5 (-4/52.5)
DAL PK / 36 (SF -3.5/45)
GB -1 / 36.5 (-1/44.5)
Continued success.
WSH -14 / 43.5 (actual -6/44.5)
BUF -14 / 36.5 (-5.5/48.5)
HOU -4.5 / 35.5 (ATL -2/41.5)
DET -16 / 49.5 (-9.5/45)
IND -5.5 / 42.5 (TEN -1/42.5)
MIA -17.5 / 50 (-11/48.5)
NE -4 / 32.5 (-1/40)
BLT -6.5 / 41 (-4/38)
AZ -5.5 / 39.5 (CIN -3/44.5)
LAR -3.5 / 49 (PHI -4/50.5)
NYJ -12 / 47.5 (DEN -1/43.5)
KC -4 / 38.5 (-4/52.5)
DAL PK / 36 (SF -3.5/45)
GB -1 / 36.5 (-1/44.5)
Continued success.
Model projections (points, total yards, passing, rushing):
CHI 14.75, 268 (164/104)
WSH 28.75, 333 (218/115)
JAX 11.25, 288 (200/88)
BUF 25.25, 356 (230/126)
HOU 20.00, 323 (247/76)
ATL 15.50, 294 (162/132)
CAR 16.75, 247 (164/83)
DET 32.75, 388 (251/137)
TEN 18.50, 327 (197/130)
IND 24.00, 357 (229/128)
NYG 16.25, 277 (174/103)
MIA 33.75, 466 (305/161)
NO 14.25, 210 (146/64)
NE 18.25, 338 (240/98)
BLT 23.75, 412 (226/186)
PIT 17.25, 261 (183/78)
CIN 17.00, 346 (243/103)
AZ 22.50, 392 (226/166)
PHI 22.75, 371 (215/156)
LAR 26.25, 370 (272/98)
NYJ 29.75, 408 (254/154)
DEN 17.75, 299 (223/86)
KC 21.25, 387 (252/135)
MIN 17.25, 338 (262/76)
DAL 18.00, 319 (194/125)
SF 18.00, 344 (212/132)
GB 18.75, 290 (213/77)
LV 17.75, 260 (200/60)
Continued success.
CHI 14.75, 268 (164/104)
WSH 28.75, 333 (218/115)
JAX 11.25, 288 (200/88)
BUF 25.25, 356 (230/126)
HOU 20.00, 323 (247/76)
ATL 15.50, 294 (162/132)
CAR 16.75, 247 (164/83)
DET 32.75, 388 (251/137)
TEN 18.50, 327 (197/130)
IND 24.00, 357 (229/128)
NYG 16.25, 277 (174/103)
MIA 33.75, 466 (305/161)
NO 14.25, 210 (146/64)
NE 18.25, 338 (240/98)
BLT 23.75, 412 (226/186)
PIT 17.25, 261 (183/78)
CIN 17.00, 346 (243/103)
AZ 22.50, 392 (226/166)
PHI 22.75, 371 (215/156)
LAR 26.25, 370 (272/98)
NYJ 29.75, 408 (254/154)
DEN 17.75, 299 (223/86)
KC 21.25, 387 (252/135)
MIN 17.25, 338 (262/76)
DAL 18.00, 319 (194/125)
SF 18.00, 344 (212/132)
GB 18.75, 290 (213/77)
LV 17.75, 260 (200/60)
Continued success.
Adding…..
453 Houston +110
459 NY Giants +12.5 (-108) / 0.3 +520
Bigger card than usual, hopefully I’m not overextending myself. Either I’m seeing the board well or I’m not, we shall see. Looks like I got some decent numbers with a few early plays, which is usually a positive sign more times than not.
Continued success.
453 Houston +110
459 NY Giants +12.5 (-108) / 0.3 +520
Bigger card than usual, hopefully I’m not overextending myself. Either I’m seeing the board well or I’m not, we shall see. Looks like I got some decent numbers with a few early plays, which is usually a positive sign more times than not.
Continued success.
