Here’s the results for the model this week. Went 12-4 ATS on sides and 11-5 on totals week 1, but I wouldn’t put much weight on that. Historically, it’s been 50/50 results the first four weeks of the season, with over twenty years of data, so view these with caution.
PHI -6.5 / 54 (actual -6.5/49)
LAC -6.5 / 47 (-3/45)
ATL -1.5 / 43 (GB -2/40.5)
HOU -4.5 / 42 (IND -1/39.5)
DET -9.5 / 47 (-6/47)
TB -5 / 44.5 (-2.5/41)
BUF -5 / 44.5 (-9.5/47)
KC -2.5 / 54 (-3/51)
CIN -7 / 43.5 (-3.5/46)
NYG -1 / 42.5 (-5.5/40)
SF -4.5 / 42.5 (-8/44.5)
DAL -4.5 / 39 (-9.5/39.5)
DEN -8 / 40.5 (-3.5/38)
NE -5 / 48 (MIA -2.5/46.5)
CAR -3 / 40 (NO -3/40)
PIT -1.5 / 38 (CLE -2.5/39)
Continued success.
PHI -6.5 / 54 (actual -6.5/49)
LAC -6.5 / 47 (-3/45)
ATL -1.5 / 43 (GB -2/40.5)
HOU -4.5 / 42 (IND -1/39.5)
DET -9.5 / 47 (-6/47)
TB -5 / 44.5 (-2.5/41)
BUF -5 / 44.5 (-9.5/47)
KC -2.5 / 54 (-3/51)
CIN -7 / 43.5 (-3.5/46)
NYG -1 / 42.5 (-5.5/40)
SF -4.5 / 42.5 (-8/44.5)
DAL -4.5 / 39 (-9.5/39.5)
DEN -8 / 40.5 (-3.5/38)
NE -5 / 48 (MIA -2.5/46.5)
CAR -3 / 40 (NO -3/40)
PIT -1.5 / 38 (CLE -2.5/39)
Continued success.
DFS:
Should be plenty of passing tonight, may be worth stacking Hurts/Brown/Smith and Cousins/Jefferson/Addison/Hockenson with some lower priced options like Osborn, Chandler, Watkins.
The Vikings couldn’t run the ball last week and should struggle again tonight. The Eagles also struggled to run the ball against a stout NE run defense, but they also got a bit pass happy. If that’s the new OC’s game, Philly takes a bigger step back than expected. Hockenson could be huge as the Eagles struggle to cover TE’s. Bucs got plenty of pressure on Cousins and don’t have near the defensive front the Birds do, but if Cousins gets time he could pick the Eagles depleted secondary apart, but he’s still Cousins, he’ll probably throw a couple right to the defense as well.
Line has been hovering around 6/49 since early yesterday.
Should be plenty of passing tonight, may be worth stacking Hurts/Brown/Smith and Cousins/Jefferson/Addison/Hockenson with some lower priced options like Osborn, Chandler, Watkins.
The Vikings couldn’t run the ball last week and should struggle again tonight. The Eagles also struggled to run the ball against a stout NE run defense, but they also got a bit pass happy. If that’s the new OC’s game, Philly takes a bigger step back than expected. Hockenson could be huge as the Eagles struggle to cover TE’s. Bucs got plenty of pressure on Cousins and don’t have near the defensive front the Birds do, but if Cousins gets time he could pick the Eagles depleted secondary apart, but he’s still Cousins, he’ll probably throw a couple right to the defense as well.
Line has been hovering around 6/49 since early yesterday.
Some thoughts on tonight’s game….
No play for me, but I like the Eagles to win this one by around 13-14 points. It’s only one week, so take that with a grain of salt, but the Vikings just give me the impression they haven’t improved much, if at all, from the wildly overrated team they were a year ago.
They struggled to run the ball against what should be a below average TB rush defense. They moved the ball up and down the field through the air, but failed to turn it into points, still incredibly inefficient. They did stifle the Bucs rushing attack after being a bottom ten rush defense last year, but TB was one of the worst, if not the worst, rushing offenses a year ago and should be in that position again this year.
The Eagles are a far, far superior rushing attack to TB, but will they run? They were pass happy last week with the new OC, which was a mistake, but the NE solid defensive front players played a large hand in that. Philadelphia should be able to move the ball with ease and unlike the Vikings, turn that into points.
The Eagles have some issues in the secondary, their safeties are atrocious while their corners are solid, but Bradberry is out. If Cousins gets time, he could pick the Birds apart. TB pressured Cousins last week and the Philadelphia pass rushers are superior across the front. Surprisingly, Cousins actually hasn’t fared too bad under pressure, he’s been right in the middle of league the last few years. Cousins decision make is questionable at best, he’s as likely to turn it over when there’s no pressure at all. The Vikings already suspect OL is battered with injuries, especially on the interior, look for Davis and Carter to blow the middle up consistently this evening and allow the edge rushers free run.
Home crowd, overrated Vikings and I’d lean with something like 34-20 Philadelphia. The model is right around the number, favoring Minnesota slightly when it was +7.5, but has shifted to Philadelphia now that it’s down to -6. The model likes the over 49 more, as does my analysis. As mentioned earlier, despite the model going 12-4 ATS and 11-5 on totals last week, that was an anomaly as historically it hasn’t produced any worthwhile results in weeks 1-4 in aggregate over the years.
Happy hunting and best of luck with your action.
No play for me, but I like the Eagles to win this one by around 13-14 points. It’s only one week, so take that with a grain of salt, but the Vikings just give me the impression they haven’t improved much, if at all, from the wildly overrated team they were a year ago.
They struggled to run the ball against what should be a below average TB rush defense. They moved the ball up and down the field through the air, but failed to turn it into points, still incredibly inefficient. They did stifle the Bucs rushing attack after being a bottom ten rush defense last year, but TB was one of the worst, if not the worst, rushing offenses a year ago and should be in that position again this year.
The Eagles are a far, far superior rushing attack to TB, but will they run? They were pass happy last week with the new OC, which was a mistake, but the NE solid defensive front players played a large hand in that. Philadelphia should be able to move the ball with ease and unlike the Vikings, turn that into points.
The Eagles have some issues in the secondary, their safeties are atrocious while their corners are solid, but Bradberry is out. If Cousins gets time, he could pick the Birds apart. TB pressured Cousins last week and the Philadelphia pass rushers are superior across the front. Surprisingly, Cousins actually hasn’t fared too bad under pressure, he’s been right in the middle of league the last few years. Cousins decision make is questionable at best, he’s as likely to turn it over when there’s no pressure at all. The Vikings already suspect OL is battered with injuries, especially on the interior, look for Davis and Carter to blow the middle up consistently this evening and allow the edge rushers free run.
Home crowd, overrated Vikings and I’d lean with something like 34-20 Philadelphia. The model is right around the number, favoring Minnesota slightly when it was +7.5, but has shifted to Philadelphia now that it’s down to -6. The model likes the over 49 more, as does my analysis. As mentioned earlier, despite the model going 12-4 ATS and 11-5 on totals last week, that was an anomaly as historically it hasn’t produced any worthwhile results in weeks 1-4 in aggregate over the years.
Happy hunting and best of luck with your action.
Model for Week 3:
SF -20 / 46.5 (-10/44.5 actual)
MIN -4.5 / 58.5 (PK/54)
CLE -1.5 / 34 (-3/39)
JAX -13 / 37 (-9.5/44)
NYJ -7 / 40 (NE -2.5/37)
GB -8.5 / 42.5 (-2/42.5)
MIA -13.5 / 47.5 (-6.5/48.5)
BUF -3 / 44 (-6.5/44)
ATL -2 / 45 (DET -3.5/46)
BLT -8.5 / 59 (-8/45)
SEA -6 / 42 (-5.5/42)
DAL -20 / 38 (-11.5/43.5)
KC -13.5 / 34 (-12.5/47.5)
PIT -7 / 41 (LV -2.5/43)
TB -2.5 / 40 (PHI -5/46)
LAR -5.5 / 42 (CIN -2.5/43.5)
As mentioned previously, the model has been just a bit more than a coin flip historically over the first four weeks of the season. It went 12-4 on sides and 11-5 on totals in Week 1 and dropped to 5-10-1 on sides and 7-7-2 on totals in Week 2.
Best of luck with your action.
SF -20 / 46.5 (-10/44.5 actual)
MIN -4.5 / 58.5 (PK/54)
CLE -1.5 / 34 (-3/39)
JAX -13 / 37 (-9.5/44)
NYJ -7 / 40 (NE -2.5/37)
GB -8.5 / 42.5 (-2/42.5)
MIA -13.5 / 47.5 (-6.5/48.5)
BUF -3 / 44 (-6.5/44)
ATL -2 / 45 (DET -3.5/46)
BLT -8.5 / 59 (-8/45)
SEA -6 / 42 (-5.5/42)
DAL -20 / 38 (-11.5/43.5)
KC -13.5 / 34 (-12.5/47.5)
PIT -7 / 41 (LV -2.5/43)
TB -2.5 / 40 (PHI -5/46)
LAR -5.5 / 42 (CIN -2.5/43.5)
As mentioned previously, the model has been just a bit more than a coin flip historically over the first four weeks of the season. It went 12-4 on sides and 11-5 on totals in Week 1 and dropped to 5-10-1 on sides and 7-7-2 on totals in Week 2.
Best of luck with your action.
