ERockMoney 2014 NFL Outlook

[ERockMoney]

Season:

Sides/Totals: 24-20-1, 54.5%, +2.320
ML: 11-17, 39.3%, +0.160
Total: +2.480
ROI: +7.5%

Week Nine Selections:

452 Miami -1.5
453 Jacksonville +11 (-108)
461 NY Jets +10 (-115)
468 New England +3 (+100)
471 Baltimore ML -108

458 Washington/Minnesota Under 44.5

1/5 bet:

453 Jacksonville ML +475
461 NY Jets ML +400
468 New England ML +145

Best of luck with your action.

Continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

Offensive YPP:

1. New England 12.206
2. Denver 12.451
3. Green Bay 12.473
4. Philadelphia 13.483
5. Kansas City 13.642

28. Minnesota 17.957
29. Washington 18.333
30. Tennessee 18.745
31. Oakland 19.838
32. Jacksonville 20.788

Defensive YPP:

1. Baltimore 21.076
2. Arizona 18.636
3. Detroit 18.437
4. Houston 18.301
5. Cleveland 18.217

28. Chicago 13.419
29. Washington 13.215
30. Tampa Bay 12.865
31. St. Louis 12.548
32. NY Jets 10.860

 

[ERockMoney]

Offense v OPP Defense:

1. Denver -2.591
2. New England -2.250
3. Green Bay -1.772
4. Baltimore -1.473
5. Arizona -1.442

28. Washington +2.409
29. Tennessee +2.966
30. Minnesota +3.176
31. Oakland +3.911
32. Jacksonville +5.257

Defense v OPP Offense:

1. Baltimore +5.634
2. Arizona +3.669
3. Detroit +2.991
4. San Diego +2.970
5. Kansas City +2.490

28. Jacksonville -1.344
29. Washington -1.968
30. St. Louis -2.293
31. Tampa Bay -3.056
32. NY Jets -3.352

 

[ERockMoney]

Offensive YPC:

1. Seattle 5.301
2. New Orleans 5.144
3. Miami 4.979
4. Dallas 4.938
5. NY Jets 4.746

28. Oakland 3.662
29. Carolina 3.538
30. Arizona 3.399
31. San Diego 3.104
32. Detroit 3.063

Defensive YPC:

1. Detroit 3.253
2. Seattle 3.300
3. Arizona 3.323
4. NY Jets 3.332
5. Denver 3.403

28. Cincinnati 4.758
29. Dallas 4.776
30. Green Bay 4.778
31. Cleveland 4.827
32. Carolina 5.202

Difference:

1. Seattle +2.001
2. NY Jets +1.414
3. New Orleans +1.121
4. Miami +0.885
5. Baltimore +0.845

28. Cincinnati -0.799
29. New England -0.813
30. Cleveland -0.832
31. San Diego -1.421
32. Carolina -1.664

 

[ERockMoney]

Schedule Difficulty (YTD):

1. Denver
2. San Francisco
3. Carolina
4. Cincinnati
5. St. Louis

28. Pittsburgh
29. Miami
30. New England
31. Houston
32. Cleveland

Offenses Faced:

1. NY Jets
2. San Francisco
3. Kansas City
4. Oakland
5. Carolina

28. Green Bay
29. Philadelphia
30. Dallas
31. Houston
32. Cleveland

Defenses Faced:

1. NY Giants
2. Cincinnati
3. Oakland
4. Washington
5. Pittsburgh

28. Detroit
29. New England
30. Chicago
31. San Diego
32. Green Bay

Top/Bottom Five Teams (YTD)

1. Denver
2. Baltimore
3. Kansas City
4. Arizona
5. Cincinnati

28. Washington
29. Pittsburgh
30. St. Louis
31. Jacksonville
32. Tampa Bay

 

[ERockMoney]

Example of the <3 dog this past week with the Vikings.

Taking the +2.5 at -110 netted a profit of +1.00 win while risking 1.10 for a return of 90.9%

Playing Minnesota on the ML of +125 netted a profit of +1.25 while risking 1.00 for a return of 125.0%

If you liked the Vikings in this matchup there was a less than one-half percent probability of them losing the game, but covering the spread. You are leaving money on the table by risking the 11 for 10 versus the 10 for 12.5 on a dead point spread. This game is difficult enough to beat when wagering at the most efficient level. Inefficient wagering increasing the difficulty exponentially and is a factor that is within your control.

Continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

New Orleans (-3.0/49.5) at Carolina

New Orleans:

Expected yards: 471.84
Passing: 330.91 (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 140.93 (4[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Carolina:

Expected yards: 373.95
Passing: 269.50 (6[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 104.45 (19[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Projected Line: New Orleans -0.07 or PK

Projected Total: 52.40 or 52.50


Line model: +2.93 line value Carolina = PLAY on CAROLINA

Total model: +2.90 line value to the Over = NO PLAY

Rushing model (offensively/defensively): NO: (2[SUP]nd[/SUP]/12[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. CAR: (29[SUP]th[/SUP]/32[SUP]nd[/SUP]) = PLAY on NEW ORLEANS

Pass rush (pressure/protection): NO (21[SUP]st[/SUP]/2[SUP]nd[/SUP]) v. CAR (19[SUP]th[/SUP]/21[SUP]st[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

System/Situation: NO PLAY

Perception: 75% on New Orleans off a huge Sunday night win against “name” opponent and away from home = PLAY on CAROLINA


Summary:

Strong lean to Carolina with a commanding 2-1 criteria advantage, but New Orleans superior rushing numbers offensively and defensively are enough to pass on a wager. No value in total either way.

Fan Duel/Draft Kings fantasy players:
There could be some value here on Ingram, although the strong performance from last week should water down his value. Newton is a sleeper and should exceed his typical production against the Saints who should struggle to defend the pass and fail to generate pressure on opposing QB’s unless they have a huge advantage at the line of scrimmage, which they do not. Carolina should be able to move the ball through the air, which could lead to some value on cheaper priced weapons, like Benjamin, especially with an expected point total in the 24-27 point range and New Orleans strength in defending TE’s, limiting Olsen’s value.

 

[ERockMoney]

Tampa Bay at Cleveland (-6.5/43.5)

Tampa Bay:

Expected yards: 309.46
Passing: 218.84 (18[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 90.62 (20[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Cleveland:

Expected yards: 383.63
Passing: 254.26 (9[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 129.37 (8[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Projected Line: Cleveland -11.90 or -12.00
Projected Total: 44.29 or 44.5

Line model: +5.40 line value Cleveland = NO PLAY; injuries to Cleveland create an outlier

Total model: +0.79 line value to the Over = NO PLAY

Rushing model (offensively/defensively): TB (17[SUP]th[/SUP]/16[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. CLE (21[SUP]st[/SUP]/31[SUP]st[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

Pass rush (pressure/protection): TB (25[SUP]th[/SUP]/21[SUP]st[/SUP]) v. CLE (17[SUP]th[/SUP]/6[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY; Mack injury

System/situation: NO PLAY

Perception/spot: 70% on Cleveland and perception of Tampa as potential worst team in league. Perception may be reality in this case = NO PLAY

Summary:

Pass all around. Cleveland has seen a hit in their figures since piling up some injuries, especially to Center Mack. Cleveland has faced the leagues easiest schedule YTD and collectively faced the worst offensive slate of opponents YTD. Would not be willing to lay this number with the Browns at this point and can back Tampa in this spot.

Fan Duel/Draft Kings fantasy players:
Hoyer could be a stretch here, but since the offensive line shake up he has plummeted. I’m still expecting a solid performance from the Browns through the air, but Hawkins may be a tad overpriced after the strong showing last week. Cleveland’s defense could be worth a look with TB expected points to be in the 14-17 range and their tendency to turn the ball over. After being burned by Tate a week ago, I’m hesitant to back him this week.

 

[ERockMoney]

Philadelphia (-2.0/49.0) at Houston

Philadelphia:

Expected yards: 405.33
Passing: 288.28 (4[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 117.05 (11[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Houston:

Expected yards: 377.89
Passing: 228.48 (17[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 149.41 (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] for week)

Projected Line: Houston -0.35 or PK
Projected Total: 45.71 or 45.5

Line model: +2.35 line value Houston = NO PLAY; lean to Houston

Total model: -3.29 line value to the Under = NO PLAY

Rushing model (offensively/defensively): PHI (15[SUP]th[/SUP]/13[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. HOU (10[SUP]th[/SUP]/15[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

Pass rush (pressure/protection): PHI (14[SUP]th[/SUP]/1[SUP]st[/SUP]) v. HOU (19[SUP]th[/SUP]/14[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

Turnover (taken/given): PHI (19[SUP]th[/SUP]/30[SUP]th[/SUP]) v HOU (1[SUP]st[/SUP]/21[SUP]st[/SUP]) = PLAY on HOUSTON

System/Situation: NO PLAY

Perception/Spot: 73% on Philadelphia despite coming off SU/ATS and Houston off SU/ATS win. Philadelphia is overrated, but unfortunately, so is Houston = NO PLAY

Summary:

Lean towards the Texans here, but looking elsewhere on the board. Philadelphia turns the ball over at an alarming rate and Houston forces turnovers. Fitzpatrick is a liability and Houston’s defense is wildly overrated. Houston’s lack of pressure of front could be disastrous allowing the Eagles to scorch the porous Texans secondary. The Eagles rushing defensive numbers are a bit inflated and Foster could have a big game if Houston utilizes a heavy rushing attack and sticks with it compared to abandoning too early, as they have in the past.

Fan Duel/Draft Kings fantasy players:
Foster is worth a serious look even at a lofty price. He should have a big game regardless of the outcome, as I wouldn’t anticipate a blowout either way. Foles is a live sleeper this week and could allow for additional funds to be spent elsewhere within the lineup. Foles has a real possibility of being in the 290-310 range with three TD’s, which should place him around fourth right behind heavily priced power QB’s.

Houston’s secondary is underwhelming, their defense shouldn’t pressure Foles much and the game should be back and forth. Even if Foster can eat up yards on the groud the Eagles best opportunity to move the ball and score is through the air. Cooper could be cheap sleeper, as Houston will likely focus on Maclin after his big game last week and the Texans defend the TE fairly well, so avoid Ertz. I wouldn’t pay for McCoy until the Eagles offensive line gets healthier.

 

[indiana]

ERM..............great info here............BOL this week..............indy

 

[ERockMoney]

NY Jets at Kansas City (-9.5/41.5)

NY Jets:

Expected yards: 289.67
Passing: 162.69 (26[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 126.98 (9[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Kansas City:

Expected yards: 377.89
Passing: 191.89 (24[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 129.62 (7[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Projected Line: Kansas City -6.86 or -7.00
Projected Total: 42.70 or 42.5

Line model: +2.64 line value NY Jets = PLAY on NY JETS

Total model: +1.20 line value to the Over = NO PLAY

Rushing model (offensively/defensively): NYJ (5[SUP]th[/SUP]/4[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. KC (9[SUP]th[/SUP]/27[SUP]th[/SUP]) = PLAY on NY JETS

Pass rush (pressure/protection): NYJ (4[SUP]th[/SUP]/27[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. KC (4[SUP]th[/SUP]/19[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

Turnover (taken/given): NYJ (32[SUP]nd[/SUP]/31[SUP]st[/SUP]) v KC (30[SUP]th[/SUP]/7[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

System/Situation: NO PLAY

Perception/Spot: 62% on Kansas City; public perception of NY Jets is incredibly low, number may be keeping many away = NO PLAY

Summary:

The Jets are in the discussion around “worst team in the league”, but really aren’t that close to that level IMO. This team is incredibly underrated, played a vicious schedule and matches up quite well with the Chiefs. The QB play is atrocious, but the Jets can run the ball, which KC can’t stop, and they can stop the run, which is KC’s strength. I look for the Jets to keep this one tight and possibly pull the upset. I played the Jets the other day +10 and +400, but that number seems to be gone at most shops. PLAY on NY JETS.

Fan Duel/Draft Kings fantasy players:
Chris Ivory, Chris Ivory and more Chris Ivory. Ivory sets up as a relatively cheap second back this week and should produce an excellent showing versus a porous Chiefs rushing defense. I see no real value anywhere on this NY team this week. As for the Chiefs, this would be a week to pass on Charles and pursue better options, especially at the always high price he commands. I’d like to say Bowe could be a sleeper, but he never seems to deliver, even against questionable secondary. The Jets are one of the worst in the league at defending the TE, so Kelce should hold more value than usual, especially with reduced rushing expectations for the offense. I would avoid the Chiefs defense, even versus the Jets, as they don’t force turnovers; have matchups concerns and an inflated price due to their opponent.

 

[swirv]

New Orleans (-3.0/49.5) at Carolina

New Orleans:

Expected yards: 471.84
Passing: 330.91 (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 140.93 (4[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Carolina:

Expected yards: 373.95
Passing: 269.50 (6[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 104.45 (19[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Projected Line: New Orleans -0.07 or PK

Projected Total: 52.40 or 52.50


Line model: +2.93 line value Carolina = PLAY on CAROLINA

Total model: +2.90 line value to the Over = NO PLAY

Rushing model (offensively/defensively): NO: (2[SUP]nd[/SUP]/12[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. CAR: (29[SUP]th[/SUP]/32[SUP]nd[/SUP]) = PLAY on NEW ORLEANS

Pass rush (pressure/protection): NO (21[SUP]st[/SUP]/2[SUP]nd[/SUP]) v. CAR (19[SUP]th[/SUP]/21[SUP]st[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

System/Situation: NO PLAY

Perception: 75% on New Orleans off a huge Sunday night win against “name” opponent and away from home = PLAY on CAROLINA


Summary:

Strong lean to Carolina with a commanding 2-1 criteria advantage, but New Orleans superior rushing numbers offensively and defensively are enough to pass on a wager. No value in total either way.

Fan Duel/Draft Kings fantasy players:
There could be some value here on Ingram, although the strong performance from last week should water down his value. Newton is a sleeper and should exceed his typical production against the Saints who should struggle to defend the pass and fail to generate pressure on opposing QB’s unless they have a huge advantage at the line of scrimmage, which they do not. Carolina should be able to move the ball through the air, which could lead to some value on cheaper priced weapons, like Benjamin, especially with an expected point total in the 24-27 point range and New Orleans strength in defending TE’s, limiting Olsen’s value.

Best of luck this weekend nice writeup's One note though on NO doing well vs TE;s. While the stats say they have been excellent vs TE's there really have faced no good TE's with Witten being the best and he is about avg right now. Considering how bad some of these TE's are the numbers they put up are quite respectable. I assume Olsen will be posted at 5.5 and around 65.5 or so. If I see a 5 out there for him I will pounce on it especially after his bad outing last week because Seattle rolled coverage to him

Levine Toilolo	ATL	1	L 34-37 (a)	6	3	19	1	7.9
Gary Barnidge	CLE	2	L 24-26 (a)	4	4	41	0	4.1
Jim Dray	CLE	2	L 24-26 (a)	2	1	5	0	0.5
Kyle Rudolph	MIN	3	W 20-9 (h)	5	3	27	0	2.7
Rhett Ellison	MIN	3	W 20-9 (h)	2	0	0	0	0.0
Jason Witten	DAL	4	L 17-38 (a)	5	5	61	0	6.1
Gavin Escobar	DAL	4	L 17-38 (a)	1	1	6	0	0.6
James Hanna	DAL	4	L 17-38 (a)	1	0	0	0	0.0
Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TB	5	W 37-31 (h)	3	1	11	0	1.1
Brandon Pettigrew	DET	7	L 23-24 (a)	6	4	28	0	2.8
Jordan Thompson	DET	7	L 23-24 (a)	1	0	0	0	0.0
Richard Rodgers	GB	8	W 44-23 (h)	5	4	58	0	5.8
Andrew Quarless	GB	8	W 44-23 (h)	3	2	19	0	1.9

 

[ERockMoney]

Best of luck this weekend nice writeup's One note though on NO doing well vs TE;s. While the stats say they have been excellent vs TE's there really have faced no good TE's with Witten being the best and he is about avg right now. Considering how bad some of these TE's are the numbers they put up are quite respectable. I assume Olsen will be posted at 5.5 and around 65.5 or so. If I see a 5 out there for him I will pounce on it especially after his bad outing last week because Seattle rolled coverage to him

Levine Toilolo	ATL	1	L 34-37 (a)	6	3	19	1	7.9
Gary Barnidge	CLE	2	L 24-26 (a)	4	4	41	0	4.1
Jim Dray	CLE	2	L 24-26 (a)	2	1	5	0	0.5
Kyle Rudolph	MIN	3	W 20-9 (h)	5	3	27	0	2.7
Rhett Ellison	MIN	3	W 20-9 (h)	2	0	0	0	0.0
Jason Witten	DAL	4	L 17-38 (a)	5	5	61	0	6.1
Gavin Escobar	DAL	4	L 17-38 (a)	1	1	6	0	0.6
James Hanna	DAL	4	L 17-38 (a)	1	0	0	0	0.0
Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TB	5	W 37-31 (h)	3	1	11	0	1.1
Brandon Pettigrew	DET	7	L 23-24 (a)	6	4	28	0	2.8
Jordan Thompson	DET	7	L 23-24 (a)	1	0	0	0	0.0
Richard Rodgers	GB	8	W 44-23 (h)	5	4	58	0	5.8
Andrew Quarless	GB	8	W 44-23 (h)	3	2	19	0	1.9

Swirv,

Thank you for the heads up. That list is less than impressive to say the least.

Best of luck this week.

 

[ERockMoney]

Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-11.0/43.5)

Jacksonville:

Expected yards: 335.49
Passing: 229.09 (16[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 106.40 (17[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Cincinnati:

Expected yards: 346.20
Passing: 236.87 (14[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 109.33 (16[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Projected Line: Cincinnati -6.35 or -6.50
Projected Total: 38.66 or 38.5

Line model: +4.65 line value Jacksonville = PLAY on JACKSONVILLE

Total model: -4.84 line value to the Under = Strong lean towards Under; still evaluating and checking Green’s status

Rushing model (offensively/defensively): JAX (14[SUP]th[/SUP]/11[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. CIN (23[SUP]rd[/SUP]/28[SUP]th[/SUP]) = PLAY on JACKSONVILLE

Pass rush (pressure/protection): JAX (2[SUP]nd[/SUP]/32[SUP]nd[/SUP]) v. CIN (25[SUP]th[/SUP]/2[SUP]nd[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

Turnover (taken/given): JAX (24[SUP]th[/SUP] /31[SUP]st[/SUP]) v KC (12[SUP]th[/SUP]/10[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

System/Situation: NO PLAY

Perception/Spot: 55% on Cincinnati and line is dropping; public perception of Jaguars is incredibly low, number may be keeping many away. Bengals off a huge divisional win after several weeks of poor performances = PLAY on JACKSONVILLE

Summary:

Similar to the Jets, the Jags are in the discussion around “worst team in the league”, but really aren’t that close to that level IMO. This is a young team who is showing signs of life. Granted they aren’t putting it together for sixty minutes yet, but some positives exist. Specifically, the pass rush, which has been superb and has a real chance to lead the league. Many key statistics between these two aren’t that far off and Jacksonville is the far superior rushing offense and rushing defense and catching DD to a team who has been terrible in three of the last four and off a huge, physical divisional win. PLAY on JACKSONVILLE.

Fan Duel/Draft Kings fantasy players:
There is a tendency amongst many to simply load up players against the Jags, but I would avoid it this week and possibly in the future. These players tend to be overpriced and Jacksonville is improving. Allen Robinson and Clay Harbor could be value, cheaply priced options. Cincinnati may be the worst at defending TE’s in the entire league and Robinson is developing into a nice target for Bortles.

 

[ERockMoney]

San Diego at Miami (-1.5/45.0)

San Diego:

Expected yards: 357.49
Passing: 270.71 (5[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 86.78 (25[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Miami:

Expected yards: 354.67
Passing: 216.80 (19[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 137.87 (5[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Projected Line: Miami -5.13 or -5.00
Projected Total: 40.63 or 40.5

Line model: +3.63 line value Miami = PLAY on MIAMI

Total model: -4.37 line value to the Under = NO PLAY

Rushing model (offensively/defensively): SD (31[SUP]st[/SUP]/23[SUP]rd[/SUP]) v. MIA (3[SUP]rd[/SUP]/14[SUP]th[/SUP]) = PLAY on MIAMI

Pass rush (pressure/protection): SD (19[SUP]th[/SUP]/9[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. MIA (9[SUP]th[/SUP]/15[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

Turnover (taken/given): SD (23[SUP]rd[/SUP] /2[SUP]nd[/SUP]) v MIA (5[SUP]th[/SUP]/18[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

System/Situation: NO PLAY

Perception/Spot: 82% on San Diego who are likely one of the most overrated teams in the league facing one of the most underrated. San Diego gets pass from public because last loss was to Denver, cross country game with early kick with lines maker suggesting SD is the better team = PLAY on MIAMI

Summary:

Only matchup of the weekend that features a 3-0 criteria for one side. Huge rushing advantage offensively and defensively for Dolphins, home getting less than a FG, huge public backing of Chargers, which has been theme since Seattle win, save for Denver game. San Diego does have sizable advantage in strength of schedule YTD. PLAY on MIAMI.

Fan Duel/Draft Kings fantasy players:
Lamar Miller is a nice option here as a number 2, especially if you can’t fathom using Ivory and tying your hopes to the Jets. The Chargers rushing defense is poor and has been on a negative trend, even allowing a pitiful Broncos ground game to gash them. I’m not sure I’d go anywhere else with this Miami squad. Rivers was on my radar, partially due to the non-existent running game and the fact the Chargers are likely to be trailing and/or in a very tight back and forth match. I keep waiting for Allen to turn it on, but I’m likely off any Chargers this week.

 

[ERockMoney]

St. Louis at San Francisco (-10/43.5)

St. Louis:

Expected yards: 295.61
Passing: 205.62 (21[SUP]st[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 89.99 (23[SUP]rd[/SUP] for week)

San Francisco:

Expected yards: 382.57
Passing: 248.62 (11[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 133.95 (6[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Projected Line: San Francisco -11.72 or -11.50
Projected Total: 46.49 or 46.5

Line model: +1.72 line value San Francisco = NO PLAY

Total model: +2.99 line value to the Over = NO PLAY

Rushing model (offensively/defensively): STL (18[SUP]th[/SUP]/26[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. SF (16[SUP]th[/SUP]/9[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

Pass rush (pressure/protection): STL (32[SUP]nd[/SUP]/28[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. SF (23[SUP]rd[/SUP]/21[SUP]st[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

Turnover (taken/given): STL (7[SUP]th[/SUP] /10[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. SF (11[SUP]th[/SUP]/7[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

System/Situation: NO PLAY

Perception/Spot: 71% on San Francisco; Niners are off a bye in a huge divisional matchup with Arizona off to a blazing start and already beating SF and Seattle struggling at the moment, which is unlikely to last.

Summary:

Nothing here and a pass all around.

Fan Duel/Draft Kings fantasy players:
I wouldn’t consider any Rams this week, especially with the injuries continuing to pile up. San Fran is an odd bunch and will likely produce some yards/points this week, but from who? Kap could be an under the radar option, but did just light the Rams up a few weeks ago. Hyde could be a real gem, but I just can’t trust that SF will use to the degree they should be using him.

 

[ERockMoney]

Denver (-3/54.5) at New England

Denver:

Expected yards: 432.41
Passing: 322.33 (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 110.08 (15[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

New England:

Expected yards: 335.39
Passing: 237.83 (13[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 97.56 (20[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Projected Line: Denver -13.73 or -13.50
Projected Total: 52.70 or 52.5

Line model: +10.73 line value Denver = OUTLIER FADE – PLAY on NEW ENGLAND

Total model: -1.90 line value to the UNDER = NO PLAY

Rushing model (offensively/defensively): DEN (25[SUP]th[/SUP]/5[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. SF (26[SUP]th[/SUP]/25[SUP]th[/SUP]) = PLAY on DENVER

Pass rush (pressure/protection): DEN (6[SUP]th[/SUP]/2[SUP]nd[/SUP]) v. NE (9[SUP]th[/SUP]/11[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

Turnover (taken/given): DEN (8[SUP]th[/SUP]/4[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. NE (11[SUP]th[/SUP]/7[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

System/Situation: PLAY on NEW ENGLAND

Perception/Spot: 51% on Denver; Denver perceived as best team in the league by masses, which I would concur at this point. Hillman seems to have helped immensely, as Broncos were near dead last in rushing offense prior to his insertion within the lineup. A couple of huge trends/systems point to New England this week, but will need to confirm their accuracy/relevance.

Summary:

I’m playing the Patriots as a home dog in this spot. Numbers confirm Denver likely league’s strongest team at this point and have faced very difficult schedule. The Broncos are starting to mirror the Seahawks a bit in home/away splits, Broncos becoming stronger and stronger at home, but reverting more towards “beatable” away from home.

Fan Duel/Draft Kings fantasy players:
I’m actually throwing a pass out there on Denver players this week, which could be a colossal error, but I like New England to “maintain” them creating a situation where they are overpriced. LaFell has a ton of value IMO, as I expect Broncos to attempt to take away Gronk. I wouldn’t touch any NE backs; as they simply aren’t a strong running team and Denver rush defense is legit.

 

[ERockMoney]

Oakland at Seattle (-15/43.0)

Oakland:

Expected yards: 253.17
Passing: 193.98 (23[SUP]rd[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 59.19 (26[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)

Seattle:

Expected yards: 372.30
Passing: 214.54 (20[SUP]th[/SUP] for week)
Rushing: 157.76 (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] for week)

Projected Line: Denver -16.52 or -16.50
Projected Total: 37.90 or 38.0

Line model: +1.50 line value Seattle = NO PLAY

Total model: -5.10 line value to the UNDER = Strong lean UNDER; still reviewing

Rushing model (offensively/defensively): OAK (28[SUP]th[/SUP]/8[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. SEA (1[SUP]st[/SUP]/2[SUP]nd[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

Pass rush (pressure/protection): OAK (29[SUP]th[/SUP]/2[SUP]nd[/SUP]) v. SEA (27[SUP]th[/SUP]/11[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

Turnover (taken/given): OAK (4[SUP]th[/SUP]/12[SUP]th[/SUP]) v. SEA (7[SUP]th[/SUP]/6[SUP]th[/SUP]) = NO PLAY

System/Situation: NO PLAY

Perception/Spot: 57% on Oakland; Public dogs are never a good option, likely being driven by massive amount of points and Seattle’s struggles of late. I’d lean towards a Seattle rout, but will pass on the side. Oakland does a few things well that give me pause, specifically protect the QB and facing a non-existent Seattle pass rush and strong/improving run defense against especially facing Lynch who seems off a bit of late.

Summary:

Passing on the side, but may look at the total and possible Under play. Numbers suggest reasonable probability Seattle rolls in this one, but still a possibility Oakland would be a late garbage TD away from the cover. 43 seems like a bit bunch, especially with Oakland expected to be in the 7-10 range.

Fan Duel/Draft Kings fantasy players:
I wouldn’t touch any Raiders in this match up and frankly not in love with any Seahawks either. Wilson should have a solid game, but there is a concern the Hawks just eat them up on the ground. Lynch is overpriced and has looked poor of late, better/safer options out there at this cost. Seattle’s defense should be solid, but I’m not a big believer in spending on defenses. I’d look to someone like the Vikings for more value.

 

[ERockMoney]

Season:

Sides/Totals: 27-22-1, 55.1%, +3.120
ML: 13-20, 39.4%, -0.830
Total: +2.290
ROI: +6.3%

Week Ten Selections:

256 Buffalo ML +113
257 San Francisco +5 (-108)
259 Tennessee +10 (-115)
262 NY Jets +5 (-108)
264 Tampa Bay ML +110
271 Chicago +7.5

254 Miami/Detroit Under 44.0

1/5 bet:

257 San Francisco ML +210
259 Tennessee ML +405
262 NY Jets ML +195
271 Chicago ML +290

Best of luck with your action.

Continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

Offensive YPP:


1. New England 11.754
2. Green Bay 12.473
3. Denver 13.310
4. Kansas City 13.550
5. Arizona 13.554

28. Washington 17.675
29. Oakland 17.899
30. Tennessee 18.745
31. NY Jets 18.955
32. Jacksonville 19.986

Defensive YPP:

1. Cleveland 18.544
2. Detroit 18.437
3. Arizona 18.319
4. Kansas City 18.290
5. Baltimore 18.029

28. Chicago 13.419
29. St. Louis 13.173
30. Washington 13.079
31. Tampa Bay 13.057
32. NY Jets 11.052