Week 4:
Sides/Totals: 3-1, 75.0%, +1.900
ML: 3-2, 60.0%, +0.240
Total: +2.140
ROI: +34.0%
Season:
Sides/Totals: 9-9, 50.0%, -0.900
ML: 7-7, 50.0%, +0.140
Total: -0.760
ROI: -3.1%
Week Four Selections:
257 Tennessee +7.5 - LOSS
262 NY Jets ML +105 - LOSS
263 Tampa Bay +7.5 - WIN
270 Minnesota +3 - WIN
272 Dallas +3 (+100) - WIN
1/5 bet:
257 Tennessee ML +290 - LOSS
263 Tampa ML +295 - WIN
270 Minnesota ML +135 - WIN
272 Dallas ML +145 - WIN
Sides/Totals: 3-1, 75.0%, +1.900
ML: 3-2, 60.0%, +0.240
Total: +2.140
ROI: +34.0%
Season:
Sides/Totals: 9-9, 50.0%, -0.900
ML: 7-7, 50.0%, +0.140
Total: -0.760
ROI: -3.1%
Week Four Selections:
257 Tennessee +7.5 - LOSS
262 NY Jets ML +105 - LOSS
263 Tampa Bay +7.5 - WIN
270 Minnesota +3 - WIN
272 Dallas +3 (+100) - WIN
1/5 bet:
257 Tennessee ML +290 - LOSS
263 Tampa ML +295 - WIN
270 Minnesota ML +135 - WIN
272 Dallas ML +145 - WIN
Hey Rock good week. Back w the models again soon too.
Had another idea for the running model I wanted to mention that may help w accuracy. Was going to track a seperate adjustment for each team running for each week. This would be an adjustment for weeks where a team had an injury, large # of turnovers, Special teams/D Tds etc. ie unusual +/- pts
So say a QB was out and the team scored 10 pts vs the usual 22, would just note +12 for the week for that team and -12 for their opponent ( ie they scored 34 vs the ususal 22) . The 10 goes into the running calcs and would tend to undervalue the team. Do this week to week so you have +/- adjs total and then divide by the # of weeks to get an avg adj to use.
Just another idea as it could make a difference w some teams.
Had another idea for the running model I wanted to mention that may help w accuracy. Was going to track a seperate adjustment for each team running for each week. This would be an adjustment for weeks where a team had an injury, large # of turnovers, Special teams/D Tds etc. ie unusual +/- pts
So say a QB was out and the team scored 10 pts vs the usual 22, would just note +12 for the week for that team and -12 for their opponent ( ie they scored 34 vs the ususal 22) . The 10 goes into the running calcs and would tend to undervalue the team. Do this week to week so you have +/- adjs total and then divide by the # of weeks to get an avg adj to use.
Just another idea as it could make a difference w some teams.
Season:
Sides/Totals: 9-9, 50.0%, -0.900
ML: 7-7, 50.0%, +0.140
Total: -0.760
ROI: -3.1%
Week Five Selections:
310 Minnesota +8.5
463 Buffalo +7 (-105)
465 Baltimore +3.5
469 Arizona +7.5 (-105)
472 San Francisco -5.5
Buffalo/Detroit Under 44.0
Arizona/Denver Under 48.5
1/5 bet:
301 Minnesota ML +340
463 Buffalo ML +270
465 Baltimore ML +165
469 Arizona +290
Best of luck with your action.
Sides/Totals: 9-9, 50.0%, -0.900
ML: 7-7, 50.0%, +0.140
Total: -0.760
ROI: -3.1%
Week Five Selections:
310 Minnesota +8.5
463 Buffalo +7 (-105)
465 Baltimore +3.5
469 Arizona +7.5 (-105)
472 San Francisco -5.5
Buffalo/Detroit Under 44.0
Arizona/Denver Under 48.5
1/5 bet:
301 Minnesota ML +340
463 Buffalo ML +270
465 Baltimore ML +165
469 Arizona +290
Best of luck with your action.
These numbers are in their infancy.....
Offensive YPP:
1. Philadelphia 12.049
2. Seattle 12.892
3. Indianapolis 13.059
4. Green Bay 13.326
5. Dallas 13.348
28. NY Jets 18.544
29. Jacksonville 19.276
30. St. Louis 19.732
31. Oakland 21.176
32. Tennessee 21.767
Defensive YPP:
1. Cincinnati 32.061
2. Baltimore 22.850
3. Houston 21.955
4. Arizona 21.089
5. San Diego 20.683
28. Tennessee 12.827
29. NY Jets 12.135
30. St. Louis 12.082
31. Washington 11.899
32. Jacksonville 11.875
Offensive YPP:
1. Philadelphia 12.049
2. Seattle 12.892
3. Indianapolis 13.059
4. Green Bay 13.326
5. Dallas 13.348
28. NY Jets 18.544
29. Jacksonville 19.276
30. St. Louis 19.732
31. Oakland 21.176
32. Tennessee 21.767
Defensive YPP:
1. Cincinnati 32.061
2. Baltimore 22.850
3. Houston 21.955
4. Arizona 21.089
5. San Diego 20.683
28. Tennessee 12.827
29. NY Jets 12.135
30. St. Louis 12.082
31. Washington 11.899
32. Jacksonville 11.875
Offense v OPP Defense:
1. Seattle -4.962
2. NY Giants -3.261
3. Atlanta -2.657
4. San Francisco -2.026
5. Denver -2.010
28. NY Jets +3.084
29. Tennessee +3.497
30. St. Louis +4.206
31. Jacksonville +4.211
32. Oakland +6.359
Defense v OPP Offense:
1. Cincinnati +16.214
2. Arizona +7.129
3. Baltimore +6.804
4. Houston +5.400
5. San Diego +5.025
28. Washington -2.571
29. St, Louis -2.576
30. Miami -2.631
31. Tampa Bay -3.325
32. NY Jets -3.974
1. Seattle -4.962
2. NY Giants -3.261
3. Atlanta -2.657
4. San Francisco -2.026
5. Denver -2.010
28. NY Jets +3.084
29. Tennessee +3.497
30. St. Louis +4.206
31. Jacksonville +4.211
32. Oakland +6.359
Defense v OPP Offense:
1. Cincinnati +16.214
2. Arizona +7.129
3. Baltimore +6.804
4. Houston +5.400
5. San Diego +5.025
28. Washington -2.571
29. St, Louis -2.576
30. Miami -2.631
31. Tampa Bay -3.325
32. NY Jets -3.974
Offensive YPC:
1. Pittsburgh 5.324
2. New Orleans 5.250
3. Seattle 5.103
4. Dallas 5.077
5. Tennessee 5.032
28. Oakland 3.417
29. Denver 3.183
30. Detroit 3.088
31. Carolina 3.054
32. San Diego 2.376
Defensive YPC:
1. Seattle 2.782
2. Arizona 2.905
3. Buffalo 2.918
4. NY Jets 2.976
5. Washington 3.252
28. Dallas 5.047
29. Cincinnati 5.075
30. St. Louis 5.110
31. Cleveland 5.180
32. Carolina 5.687
Difference:
1. Seattle +2.321
2. NY Jets +1.903
3. Buffalo +1.487
4. Baltimore +1.221
5. Washington +1.220
28. St. Louis -1.258
29. Houston -1.376
30. Cincinnati -1.496
31. San Diego -2.147
32. Carolina -2.633
1. Pittsburgh 5.324
2. New Orleans 5.250
3. Seattle 5.103
4. Dallas 5.077
5. Tennessee 5.032
28. Oakland 3.417
29. Denver 3.183
30. Detroit 3.088
31. Carolina 3.054
32. San Diego 2.376
Defensive YPC:
1. Seattle 2.782
2. Arizona 2.905
3. Buffalo 2.918
4. NY Jets 2.976
5. Washington 3.252
28. Dallas 5.047
29. Cincinnati 5.075
30. St. Louis 5.110
31. Cleveland 5.180
32. Carolina 5.687
Difference:
1. Seattle +2.321
2. NY Jets +1.903
3. Buffalo +1.487
4. Baltimore +1.221
5. Washington +1.220
28. St. Louis -1.258
29. Houston -1.376
30. Cincinnati -1.496
31. San Diego -2.147
32. Carolina -2.633
Schedule Difficulty (YTD):
1. Seattle
2. Denver
3. Arizona
4. Tennessee
5. San Francisco
28. Philadelphia
29. St. Louis
30. Washington
31. New England
32. Houston
Offense Faced:
1. Denver
2. Tennessee
3. Seattle
4. San Francisco
5. Jacksonville
28. Tampa Bay
29. NY Giants
30. Houston
31. Cleveland
32. Dallas
Defense Faced:
1. Tennessee
2. Seattle
3. Baltimore
4. Buffalo
5. NY Giants
28. Kansas City
29. Minnesota
30. Indianapolis
31. Dallas
32. Philadelphia
1. Seattle
2. Denver
3. Arizona
4. Tennessee
5. San Francisco
28. Philadelphia
29. St. Louis
30. Washington
31. New England
32. Houston
Offense Faced:
1. Denver
2. Tennessee
3. Seattle
4. San Francisco
5. Jacksonville
28. Tampa Bay
29. NY Giants
30. Houston
31. Cleveland
32. Dallas
Defense Faced:
1. Tennessee
2. Seattle
3. Baltimore
4. Buffalo
5. NY Giants
28. Kansas City
29. Minnesota
30. Indianapolis
31. Dallas
32. Philadelphia
I recently heard about something involving QB rating and fading QB off excellent performances who are facing QB's off terrible performances, something along those lines. I'm not sure of the accuracy of this, but was told it has hit at an incredible percentage the last few seasons. Probably an anomaly or vastly overstated by the source, but I'll look into it. I'll find our more details and get back to you.
Offensive YPP:
1. Green Bay 11.537
2. Philadelphia 11.679
3. NY Giants 12.955
4. Seattle 13.391
5. Denver 13.672
28. St. Louis 18.702
29. Tennessee 19.500
30. Jacksonville 20.313
31. NY Jets 20.456
32. Oakland 21.176
Defensive YPP:
1. San Diego 23.079
2. Baltimore 22.413
3. Houston 22.149
4. Cincinnati 20.566
5. Buffalo 18.135
28. Tampa Bay 13.218
29. Jacksonville 12.882
30. Washington 12.500
31. NY Jets 11.921
32. St. Louis 11.588
1. Green Bay 11.537
2. Philadelphia 11.679
3. NY Giants 12.955
4. Seattle 13.391
5. Denver 13.672
28. St. Louis 18.702
29. Tennessee 19.500
30. Jacksonville 20.313
31. NY Jets 20.456
32. Oakland 21.176
Defensive YPP:
1. San Diego 23.079
2. Baltimore 22.413
3. Houston 22.149
4. Cincinnati 20.566
5. Buffalo 18.135
28. Tampa Bay 13.218
29. Jacksonville 12.882
30. Washington 12.500
31. NY Jets 11.921
32. St. Louis 11.588
Offense v OPP Defense:
1. NY Giants -3.226
2. Seattle -2.936
3. Arizona -2.908
4. Denver -2.751
5. Green Bay -2.649
28. Pittsburgh +2.543
29. St. Louis +3.849
30. NY Jets +3.862
31. Jacksonville +4.683
32. Oakland +6.078
Defense v OPP Offense:
1. Baltimore +6.960
2. San Diego +6.417
3. Houston +6.233
4. Cincinnati +4.976
5. Arizona +3.837
28. Jacksonville -1.804
29. Miami -2.341
30. St. Louis -2.484
31. NY Jets -2.959
32. Tampa Bay -3.209
1. NY Giants -3.226
2. Seattle -2.936
3. Arizona -2.908
4. Denver -2.751
5. Green Bay -2.649
28. Pittsburgh +2.543
29. St. Louis +3.849
30. NY Jets +3.862
31. Jacksonville +4.683
32. Oakland +6.078
Defense v OPP Offense:
1. Baltimore +6.960
2. San Diego +6.417
3. Houston +6.233
4. Cincinnati +4.976
5. Arizona +3.837
28. Jacksonville -1.804
29. Miami -2.341
30. St. Louis -2.484
31. NY Jets -2.959
32. Tampa Bay -3.209
Offensive YPC:
1. Seattle 5.439
2. New Orleans 5.155
3. Pittsburgh 5.044
4. Tennessee 5.016
5. Miami 4.991
28. Oakland 3.417
29. Denver 3.212
30. Detroit 3.143
31. Carolina 3.117
32. San Diego 2.803
Defensive YPC:
1. Seattle 2.621
2. Buffalo 3.008
3. Arizona 3.010
4. Detroit 3.179
5. NY Jets 3.320
28. St. Louis 4.919
29. Cincinnati 4.956
30. Cleveland 5.126
31. Dallas 5.214
32. Carolina 5.355
Difference:
1. Seattle +2.818
2. NY Jets +1.480
3. Baltimore +1.248
4. Miami +1.161
5. Buffalo +1.037
28. Houston -0.796
29. Oakland -0.889
30. Cincinnati -1.256
31. San Diego -1.683
32. Carolina -2.239
1. Seattle 5.439
2. New Orleans 5.155
3. Pittsburgh 5.044
4. Tennessee 5.016
5. Miami 4.991
28. Oakland 3.417
29. Denver 3.212
30. Detroit 3.143
31. Carolina 3.117
32. San Diego 2.803
Defensive YPC:
1. Seattle 2.621
2. Buffalo 3.008
3. Arizona 3.010
4. Detroit 3.179
5. NY Jets 3.320
28. St. Louis 4.919
29. Cincinnati 4.956
30. Cleveland 5.126
31. Dallas 5.214
32. Carolina 5.355
Difference:
1. Seattle +2.818
2. NY Jets +1.480
3. Baltimore +1.248
4. Miami +1.161
5. Buffalo +1.037
28. Houston -0.796
29. Oakland -0.889
30. Cincinnati -1.256
31. San Diego -1.683
32. Carolina -2.239
Schedule Difficulty (YTD):
1. Arizona
2. Denver
3. Seattle
4. Tennessee
5. San Francisco
28. New England
29. Miami
30. Philadelphia
31. Houston
32. Pittsburgh
Offenses Faced:
1. Arizona
2. San Francisco
3. Denver
4. Seattle
5. St. Louis
28. Tampa Bay
29. Philadelphia
30. San Diego
31. Dallas
32. Cleveland
Defenses Faced:
1. Tennessee
2. Buffalo
3. Arizona
4. NY Jets
5. Denver
28. Kansas City
29. Minnesota
30. Green Bay
31. Tampa Bay
32. Philadelphia
1. Arizona
2. Denver
3. Seattle
4. Tennessee
5. San Francisco
28. New England
29. Miami
30. Philadelphia
31. Houston
32. Pittsburgh
Offenses Faced:
1. Arizona
2. San Francisco
3. Denver
4. Seattle
5. St. Louis
28. Tampa Bay
29. Philadelphia
30. San Diego
31. Dallas
32. Cleveland
Defenses Faced:
1. Tennessee
2. Buffalo
3. Arizona
4. NY Jets
5. Denver
28. Kansas City
29. Minnesota
30. Green Bay
31. Tampa Bay
32. Philadelphia
Season:
Sides/Totals: 11-13-1, 45.8%, -3.250,
ML: 8-10, 44.4%, +0.080
Total: -3.170
ROI: -9.6%
Week Six Selections:
258 Atlanta -3 (-120)
260 Miami +3.5 (-115)
266 Buffalo +3
267 Baltimore -3 (-120)
270 Oakland +7 (-108)
275 NY Giants +3 (-115)
102 Indianapolis/Tennessee Under 47.0 (-107)
1/5 bet:
260 Miami ML +160
266 Buffalo ML +135
270 Oakland ML +270
275 NY Giants ML +130
Hoping to get this thing turned around.....
Best of luck with your action.
Continued success.
Sides/Totals: 11-13-1, 45.8%, -3.250,
ML: 8-10, 44.4%, +0.080
Total: -3.170
ROI: -9.6%
Week Six Selections:
258 Atlanta -3 (-120)
260 Miami +3.5 (-115)
266 Buffalo +3
267 Baltimore -3 (-120)
270 Oakland +7 (-108)
275 NY Giants +3 (-115)
102 Indianapolis/Tennessee Under 47.0 (-107)
1/5 bet:
260 Miami ML +160
266 Buffalo ML +135
270 Oakland ML +270
275 NY Giants ML +130
Hoping to get this thing turned around.....
Best of luck with your action.
Continued success.
Offensive YPP:
1. Green Bay 11.894
2. Philadelphia 12.404
3. Seattle 12.624
4. New England 13.094
5. Denver 13.231
28. Oakland 18.684
29. NY Jets 18.958
30. Pittsburgh 19.185
31. Tennessee 19.288
32. Jacksonville 20.313
Defensive YPP:
1. Baltimore 22.237
2. San Diego 20.330
3. Houston 19.858
4. Detroit 19.805
5. Arizona 18.151
28. Jacksonville 12.882
29. Tampa Bay 12.436
30. Washington 12.151
31. St. Louis 12.073
32. NY Jets 11.854
1. Green Bay 11.894
2. Philadelphia 12.404
3. Seattle 12.624
4. New England 13.094
5. Denver 13.231
28. Oakland 18.684
29. NY Jets 18.958
30. Pittsburgh 19.185
31. Tennessee 19.288
32. Jacksonville 20.313
Defensive YPP:
1. Baltimore 22.237
2. San Diego 20.330
3. Houston 19.858
4. Detroit 19.805
5. Arizona 18.151
28. Jacksonville 12.882
29. Tampa Bay 12.436
30. Washington 12.151
31. St. Louis 12.073
32. NY Jets 11.854
Offense v OPP Defense:
1. Seattle -3.131
2. Indianapolis -2.529
3. Green Bay -2.396
4. Arizona -2.234
5. New England -2.084
28. Minnesota +3.226
29. Tennessee +3.467
30. Pittsburgh +3.645
31. St. Louis +3.809
32. Jacksonville +4.926
Defense v OPP Offense:
1. Baltimore +6.990
2. Detroit +4.367
3. San Diego +4.177
4. Houston +4.128
5. Arizona +3.333
28. Washington -2.048
29. Jacksonville -2.203
30. St. Louis -2.585
31. NY Jets -2.710
32. Tampa Bay -3.708
1. Seattle -3.131
2. Indianapolis -2.529
3. Green Bay -2.396
4. Arizona -2.234
5. New England -2.084
28. Minnesota +3.226
29. Tennessee +3.467
30. Pittsburgh +3.645
31. St. Louis +3.809
32. Jacksonville +4.926
Defense v OPP Offense:
1. Baltimore +6.990
2. Detroit +4.367
3. San Diego +4.177
4. Houston +4.128
5. Arizona +3.333
28. Washington -2.048
29. Jacksonville -2.203
30. St. Louis -2.585
31. NY Jets -2.710
32. Tampa Bay -3.708
Offensive YPC:
1. Seattle 5.312
2. New Orleans 5.155
3. Miami 4.971
4. Pittsburgh 4.905
5. Dallas 4.810
28. Arizona 3.480
29. Denver 3.455
30. Carolina 3.383
31. Detroit 3.217
32. San Diego 2.926
Defensive YPC:
1. Buffalo 2.793
2. Seattle 3.114
3. Arizona 3.185
4. Detroit 3.267
5. Denver 3.310
28. Kansas City 4.789
29. Cincinnati 4.810
30. Cleveland 4.954
31. Dallas 5.111
32. Carolina 5.533
Difference:
1. Seattle +2.198
2. Miami +1.204
3. Baltimore +1.108
4. Buffalo +1.092
5. NY Jets +1.044
28. Green Bay -0.688
29. NY Giants -0.751
30. Indianapolis -1.131
31. San Diego -1.751
32. Carolina -2.150
1. Seattle 5.312
2. New Orleans 5.155
3. Miami 4.971
4. Pittsburgh 4.905
5. Dallas 4.810
28. Arizona 3.480
29. Denver 3.455
30. Carolina 3.383
31. Detroit 3.217
32. San Diego 2.926
Defensive YPC:
1. Buffalo 2.793
2. Seattle 3.114
3. Arizona 3.185
4. Detroit 3.267
5. Denver 3.310
28. Kansas City 4.789
29. Cincinnati 4.810
30. Cleveland 4.954
31. Dallas 5.111
32. Carolina 5.533
Difference:
1. Seattle +2.198
2. Miami +1.204
3. Baltimore +1.108
4. Buffalo +1.092
5. NY Jets +1.044
28. Green Bay -0.688
29. NY Giants -0.751
30. Indianapolis -1.131
31. San Diego -1.751
32. Carolina -2.150
Schedule Difficulty (YTD):
1. Seattle
2. Arizona
3. Denver
4. NY Jets
5. Buffalo
28. San Diego
29. Houston
30. New England
31. Philadelphia
32. Pittsburgh
Offenses Faced:
1. Seattle
2. Washington
3. Miami
4. Denver
5. San Francisco
28. New England
29. Philadelphia
30. Tampa Bay
31. San Diego
32. Cleveland
Defenses Faced:
1. Buffalo
2. Indianapolis
3. NY Jets
4. NY Giants
5. Washington
28. New Orleans
29. Atlanta
30. San Diego
31. Green Bay
32. Philadelphia
1. Seattle
2. Arizona
3. Denver
4. NY Jets
5. Buffalo
28. San Diego
29. Houston
30. New England
31. Philadelphia
32. Pittsburgh
Offenses Faced:
1. Seattle
2. Washington
3. Miami
4. Denver
5. San Francisco
28. New England
29. Philadelphia
30. Tampa Bay
31. San Diego
32. Cleveland
Defenses Faced:
1. Buffalo
2. Indianapolis
3. NY Jets
4. NY Giants
5. Washington
28. New Orleans
29. Atlanta
30. San Diego
31. Green Bay
32. Philadelphia
