ERockMoney 2014 NFL Outlook

Search

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
Season:

Sides/Totals: 14-16-1, 46.7%, -3.700
ML: 8-14, 36.4%, -0.720
Total: -4.420
ROI: -10.9%

Week Seven Selections:

453 Tennessee +5.5 (-108)
467 New Orleans +3 (-118)
469 Kansas City +4.5
471 NY Giants +7 (-120)
478 Pittsburgh -3 (-120)

468 New Orleans/Detroit Under 49 (-108)
470 Kansas City/San Diego Under 45 (-108)

1/5 bet:

453 Tennessee ML +215
467 New Orleans ML +125
469 Kansas City ML +180
471 NY Giants ML +235

Best of luck with your action.
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
OFF YPP DEF YPP EXP YDS PASS RUSH EXP PTS OFF YPC DEF YPC SCHED Margin Total LV Line LV TotalDIF Line
DIF Total
NY Jets 18.958 11.854 312.20 187.49 124.71 18.27 4.544 3.500 4
New England 13.094 14.860 319.33 218.73 100.60 29.41 3.708 4.215 30 -14.14 47.69 -9.5 44.5-4.643.19 < 2.5
48.1%
A 2.51-4.99 57.2% Look to play
Atlanta 15.000 14.788 372.22 278.56 93.66 16.07 4.551 4.247 13 B 5.00-7.49 41.9% Look to fade
Baltimore 14.262 22.237 426.35 281.07 145.28 30.83 4.716 3.608 20 -17.76 46.90 -6 50-11.76-3.10 7.50-9.99 50.8%
C 10+ 63.6% Look to play
Tennessee 19.288 14.706 322.45 210.41 112.04 18.89 4.678 4.005 17
Washington 17.992 12.151 367.67 275.40 92.27 21.40 4.139 3.898 16 -5.51 40.29 -6 45.50.49-5.21
Seattle 12.624 14.796 366.45 202.98 163.47 36.88 5.312 3.114 1 Possible A NE IND BUF GB
St. Louis 18.614 12.073 336.28 241.48 94.80 16.74 4.141 4.539 18 17.14 53.63 7 4310.1410.63 Possible B NO PIT
Possible C BLT SEA CLE
Cleveland 14.299 17.791 419.94 259.72 160.22 34.20 4.430 4.954 22
Jacksonville 20.313 12.882 307.02 231.45 75.57 14.69 3.526 4.192 10 16.51 48.89 5.5 44.511.014.39 Cross reference with other criteria:
Cincinnati 14.813 17.646 369.57 250.97 118.60 25.23 4.219 4.810 14 Hits BUF NO PIT
Indianapolis 14.042 15.022 454.39 337.63 116.76 28.74 3.647 4.778 25 -6.51 53.97 -3 49.5-3.514.47 CANCEL MIN
Minnesota 18.154 13.930 301.29 186.55 114.74 15.03 4.494 4.195 6 Other hits:
Buffalo 16.627 15.952 317.29 219.29 98.00 21.93 3.885 2.793 5 -9.90 36.96 -5 42.5-4.90-5.54 Rushing NO PIT KC NYJ
System TEN
Miami 14.717 13.371 367.25 225.63 141.62 25.68 4.971 3.767 24 Perception CIN TEN STL OAK NYG
Chicago 15.531 14.576 378.60 273.76 104.84 24.69 4.155 4.319 21 -2.01 50.37 -3 480.992.37 Situation NYG KC
New Orleans 16.773 13.461 362.70 253.76 108.94 16.42 5.155 4.211 26 Final Card NO (3) PIT (3) TEN (2) KC (2) NYG (2)
Detroit 16.991 19.805 349.62 257.74 91.88 21.97 3.217 3.267 27 -8.55 38.39 -2.5 47.5-6.05-9.11
Possible Totals:
Carolina 14.631 15.000 379.35 283.55 95.80 24.68 3.383 5.533 15 SEA/STL OVER
Green Bay 11.894 16.985 392.12 275.61 116.51 30.76 3.924 4.612 12 -9.08 55.44 -6.5 50-2.585.44 NO/DET UNDER
Kansas City 14.076 16.921 364.06 218.22 145.84 18.99 4.596 4.789 7 Week
San Diego 13.835 20.330 358.48 270.64 87.84 20.60 2.926 4.677 28 -4.62 39.59 -4 45-0.62-5.41 1--4 Uselss
5--8 Partial
Arizona 13.267 18.151 369.51 266.75 102.76 29.24 3.480 3.185 2 9--16 Valid
Oakland 18.684 14.060 331.63 250.74 80.89 15.00 3.913 4.161 23 11.23 44.24 3.5 44.57.73-0.26 17 Unreliable
NY Giants 14.865 16.435 300.81 195.67 105.14 20.82 3.695 4.446 8
Dallas 14.497 16.310 414.77 247.96 166.81 24.86 4.810 5.111 11 -7.04 45.67 -6.5 47.5-0.54-1.83
Negative Home Under
San Francisco 14.613 15.579 332.94 209.30 123.64 21.40 4.240 3.787 9 Positive Away Over
Denver 13.231 15.298 336.97 257.97 79.00 22.52 3.695 4.446 3 -4.13 43.92 -6.5 492.37-5.08
Houston 15.318 19.858 333.11 206.09 127.02 21.34 4.213 4.358 29
Pittsburgh 19.185 14.547 379.78 248.24 131.54 16.21 4.905 4.447 32 2.13 37.56 -3 44.55.13-6.94
 

Member
Joined
Sep 8, 2009
Messages
750
Tokens
ERock, Nice spreadsheet. Have similar #s. You probably consider inj too. I make some adj as well for what I mentioned before where a team scores or allows pts due to an unusual circumstance in past weeks ie the qb is out, they allow a few special teams tds etc.

For ex I have GB -7 by my calcs this week vs CAR but then have an adj total ( fav - dog adj) of +11. so the net is CAR -4.

CAR was lousy earlier, GB played some soft teams they rolled the pts up on ( MIN and CHI playing badly) etc.

Anyway, just some ideas and BOL this week.
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
Week 7:

Sides/Totals: 6-1, 85.7%, +4.800
ML: 1-3, 25.0%, -0.240
Total: +4.560
ROI: +52.3%

Season:

Sides/Totals: 20-17-1, 54.1%, +1.100
ML: 9-17, 34.6%, -0.960
Total: +0.140
ROI: +0.3%

Week Seven Selections:

453 Tennessee +5.5 (-108) - WIN
467 New Orleans +3 (-118) - WIN
469 Kansas City +4.5 - WIN
471 NY Giants +7 (-120) - LOSS
478 Pittsburgh -3 (-120) - WIN

468 New Orleans/Detroit Under 49 (-108) - WIN
470 Kansas City/San Diego Under 45 (-108) - WIN

1/5 bet:

453 Tennessee ML +215 - LOSS
467 New Orleans ML +125 - LOSS
469 Kansas City ML +180 - WIN
471 NY Giants ML +235 - LOSS

Finally back in black - hopefully we can build from here and get rolling.
Best of luck.
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
Season:

Sides/Totals: 20-17-1, 54.1%, +1.100
ML: 9-17, 34.6%, -0.960
Total: +0.140
ROI: +0.3%

Week Eight Selections:

254 Tampa Bay -2.5 (-115)
270 Arizona -2.5 (-115)
272 Pittsburgh +3
276 New Orleans -1 (-108)
277 Washington +10 (-115)

104 SD/DEN Under 51.5 (-105)
268 BLT/CIN Under 46 (-108)

1/5 bet:

272 Pittsburgh ML +136
277 Washington ML +425

Best of luck with your action.

Continued success.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 14, 2006
Messages
53,690
Tokens
ERM.............nicely done last week............BOL with this weeks plays.............indy
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
Offensive YPP:

1. Green Bay 11.447
2. Philadelphia 12.404
3. Denver 12.508
4. New England 12.930
5. Seattle 13.472

28. Washington 18.053
29. Oakland 18.435
30. Tennessee 18.529
31. NY Jets 18.537
32. Jacksonville 19.771

Defensive YPP:

1. Baltimore 23.183
2. San Diego 19.430
3. Detroit 19.352
4. Houston 18.080
5. Arizona 18.017

28. New Orleans 13.588
29. St. Louis 12.920
30. Tampa Bay 12.436
31. Washington 12.311
32. NY Jets 11.870
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
Offense v OPP Defense:

1. Green Bay -2.826
2. Denver -2.197
3. New England -1.857
4. Seattle -1.831
5. Philadelphia -1.764

28. Washington +2.392
29. Oakland +2.750
30. Minnesota +2.778
31. Tennessee +3.275
32. Jacksonville +4.040

Defense v OPP Offense:

1. Baltimore +7.520
2. San Diego +4.082
3. Detroit +3.647
4. Arizona +2.929
5. Cincinnati +2.907

28. St. Louis -1.613
29. NY Jets -2.098
30. New Orleans -2.231
31. Washington -2.437
32. Tampa Bay -3.501
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
Offensive YPC:

1. Seattle 5.412
2. New Orleans 4.920
3. Miami 4.812
4. Dallas 4.757
5. Pittsburgh 4.663

28. Denver 3.591
29. Carolina 3.514
30. Arizona 3.444
31. Detroit 3.119
32. San Diego 3.034

Defensive YPC:

1. Arizona 3.152
2. Seattle 3.226
3. Buffalo 3.236
4. Detroit 3.295
5. Denver 3.328

28. St. Louis 4.754
29. Cincinnati 4.851
30. Dallas 4.932
31. Cleveland 5.016
32. Carolina 5.291

Difference:

1. Seattle +2.185
2. NY Jets +1.094
3. Miami +1.049
4. New Orleans +0.977
5. Buffalo +0.902

28. NY Giants -0.716
29. Indianapolis -0.746
30. Cincinnati -0.747
31. San Diego -1.472
32. Carolina -1.777
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
Schedule Difficulty (YTD):

1. Denver
2. San Francisco
3. NY Jets
4. Kansas City
5. Seattle

28. Houston
29. Cleveland
30. Philadelphia
31. New England
32. Pittsburgh

Offense Faced:


1. NY Jets
2. San Francisco
3. Seattle
4. Kansas City
5. Miami

28. Tampa Bay
29. Houston
30. Philadelphia
31. New England
32. Cleveland

Defense Faced:


1. Carolina
2. Indianapolis
3. NY Jets
4. Buffalo
5. NY Giants

28. St. Louis
29. Chicago
30. Green Bay
31. Philadelphia
32. San Diego
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
A couple of notes…

Spreads of -10 or greater:

Favorite Win & Cover: 45.3%
Favorite Win & Fail to Cover: 38.8%
Favorite Lose Outright: 13.9%
Push: 2.0%

Spreads of -7 or greater:

Favorite Win & Cover: 47.1%
Favorite Win & Fail to Cover: 30.8%
Favorite Lose Outright: 20.2%
Push: 1.9%

Spreads of -4 or greater:

Favorite Win & Cover: 49.0%
Favorite Win & Fail to Cover: 24.4%
Favorite Lose Outright: 24.7%
Push: 1.8%

Spreads of less than -3:

Favorite Win & Cover: 51.3%
Favorite Win & Fail to Cover: 0.0%
Favorite Lose Outright: 46.7%
Push: 2.0%

Comments:


  • It’s a bit misleading to suggest points only matter a very small percentage of the time, partially because the short spreads almost never have points come into play. Points matter nearly 40% of the time for DD spreads, over 30% of the time for spreads a TD or greater and nearly a quarter of the time at 4 points or greater. The concept is sound about simply finding the winner, but don’t get drawn into figures suggesting points only matter 10-15% of the time because they are deflated by very short spreads
  • Never take a dog of less than three points, always place the entire wager on the ML, as the chances of the short dog covering and not winning SU is less than 0.05%
  • Buying off a key numbers when playing the favorite is a losing proposition off of 3 and 7, but has actually shed positive results off of 10. Across a large segment of plays, buying off of -3 to -2.5, at a projected cost of -130 would decrease your bankroll by -37.3% compared to simply not buying off. Buying off of -7 would have a negative impact of nearly -10% while buying off -10 would actually have a positive impact of nearly +17% over a large sampling
  • Three point favorites have the worst cover percentage of any number under 10 and also include the largest sampling of games with a 41% cover, 51% not cover, 8% push breakdown, failing to cover 69% of the time on nearly 550 games
  • Five and half point favorites have the strongest cover percentage at over 56% against a segment of over 100 plays (-8.5 is actually over 61%, but does not have a large sampling < 20 games)
  • These figures date back to 2002 and there could be some slight variance pending closing line source
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
As for dogs of less than 3.0, playing the points versus the ML has the following breakdown:

Line: 47.6% cover rate for -51.8 units (Losses at -110 and wins at +100)

ML: 47.6% win SU rate for +1.5 units (Losses at -100 and wins ranging from +105 to +120)
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
When you play a dog you would be well suited to sprinkle something on the moneyline. Hypothetically, if you played every dog of +3 to +10 since 2002 you would be down -79.60 units.

By adding a 1/5 wager to the ML you would add 402.50 (dog wins outright) units of profit versus additional losses of -283.53 (dog loses SU and ATS + loses SU and covers). This would net an additional 118.97 of profit and bring your new total to +39.37 compared to -79.60.

Food for thought.....
 

Member
Joined
Sep 8, 2009
Messages
750
Tokens
Thanks for posting the helpful insights. Certainly will look at dogs in spreads > 6 closer now.

Agree w most of your picks too & have a good Sunday.
 

Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2006
Messages
11,698
Tokens
When you play a dog you would be well suited to sprinkle something on the moneyline. Hypothetically, if you played every dog of +3 to +10 since 2002 you would be down -79.60 units.

By adding a 1/5 wager to the ML you would add 402.50 (dog wins outright) units of profit versus additional losses of -283.53 (dog loses SU and ATS + loses SU and covers). This would net an additional 118.97 of profit and bring your new total to +39.37 compared to -79.60.

That's why you have a very appropriate user name. A very good capper and a smart one with money knowledge.

good luck this week my friend
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
Season:

Sides/Totals: 24-20-1, 54.5%, +2.320
ML: 11-17, 39.3%, +0.160
Total: +2.480
ROI: +7.5%

Week Eight Selections:

254 Tampa Bay -2.5 (-115) - LOSS
270 Arizona -2.5 (-115) - WIN
272 Pittsburgh +3 - WIN
276 New Orleans -1 (-108) - WIN
277 Washington +10 (-115) - WIN

104 SD/DEN Under 51.5 (-105) - LOSS
268 BLT/CIN Under 46 (-108) - LOSS

1/5 bet:

272 Pittsburgh ML +136 - WIN
277 Washington ML +425 - WIN
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
Thanks for posting the helpful insights. Certainly will look at dogs in spreads > 6 closer now.

Agree w most of your picks too & have a good Sunday.

Jgm,

Thank you for stopping by. This is around the time of the year where the numbers can have more of an influence, hopefully this little hot streak continues.

Best of luck.
 

Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
6,141
Tokens
When you play a dog you would be well suited to sprinkle something on the moneyline. Hypothetically, if you played every dog of +3 to +10 since 2002 you would be down -79.60 units.

By adding a 1/5 wager to the ML you would add 402.50 (dog wins outright) units of profit versus additional losses of -283.53 (dog loses SU and ATS + loses SU and covers). This would net an additional 118.97 of profit and bring your new total to +39.37 compared to -79.60.

That's why you have a very appropriate user name. A very good capper and a smart one with money knowledge.

good luck this week my friend

United,

I hope you can continue your incredible run. I'm creeping up a bit the last few weeks, but my college game has gone to hell after a hot start to the season.

Continued success.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,810
Messages
13,573,483
Members
100,871
Latest member
Legend813
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com