Dumb & Dumbest Opening Weekend

[Ninja]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Boxofficeguru: he is probably the least accurate of all the experts when it comes to predictions.

Boxofficemojo: $34.1 mil. This guy is the most accurate of the lot.

Boxofficereport: $48 mil. This guy is the second most accurate of the lot.

Lee's Movie info: $40.8 mil. This guy is probably the second LEAST accurate, right behind Boxofficeguru.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Just curious here. When you say one site is the most accurate and another is the least accurate, are you going by gut feel, or do you have empirical evidence to back up the claim?

Are there any sites that track this sort of thing?

 

[Oren1]

It comes mostly from experience, watching their predictions and seeing how they pan out.

 

[wtf]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Ninja:
Just curious here. When you say one site is the most accurate and another is the least accurate, are you going by gut feel, or do you have empirical evidence to back up the claim?

Are there any sites that track this sort of thing?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Ninja, on a whole the sites accuracy vary from week to week.Take jcampo's assesment, quoted above. The movies' $$ ended up being closest to the "least accurate" of the experts.
Next week they may be reversed?

 

[jcambert]

WTF, you are taking one week of evidence to provide "proof" for your point of view. When someone says that this site is more accurate than another site, you are talking about an "average." And, while that may change from week to week, it is a statement that could be substantiated with hard numbers (if someone who has no life chose to do so). And, I will say again, that, by and large, Boxofficemojo, and Boxofficereport are, by FAR the two most accurate of the sites, followed in a distant manner by Boxofficeguru and Leesmovieinfo, in that order.

Oh, and WTF, it's "jcambert" not "jcampo." Thanks, though.

JP

 

[jcambert]

Oren, I really like your 5 day bet. Just played it at Bodog at 7/2. There's a good chance that this movie makes $85 to $92 mil, putting it right in line with the 5-day bet.

JP

 

[SoundofSilence]

5-day is a possibility... But I don't see this movie making $85 mill opening weekend -- the buildup for it is far less than X-Men 2, and its the same target audience.

 

[Oren1]

What makes you say that Sound? I'm seeing advertisements for the Hulk all over the place. X2 did open in more theaters, however.

 

[wtf]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by jcambert:
WTF, you are taking one week of evidence to provide "proof" for your point of view. When someone says that this site is more accurate than another site, you are talking about an "average." And, while that may change from week to week, it is a statement that could be substantiated with hard numbers (if someone who has no life chose to do so). And, I will say again, that, by and large, Boxofficemojo, and Boxofficereport are, by FAR the two most accurate of the sites, followed in a distant manner by Boxofficeguru and Leesmovieinfo, in that order.

Oh, and WTF, it's "jcambert" not "jcampo." Thanks, though.

JP<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

jlambert,

What I meant was, while your assesment of the accuracy of the various sites was very good, the actual numbers week-to-week can vary widely.

Oh, and you're welcome.

 

[jcambert]

Sound, I disagree with you wholeheartedly on your point that the build up for X2 was greater. And, Oren, as for the theater count, I don't think there will be much difference. I'm hearing rumblings that it's going to open up in just over 3600 theaters.

And, WWF. Check out "Hooked on Phonics" man, cause, for the final time, it's "jcambert." Ok, NWA?

JP

 

[Oren1]

dude, come one, you can come up with something better than NWA?

I hope you're not making a mistake not taking the 4 day also, Many people are starting to say 90 million +, and that would give it a decent shot at hitting 100 in 4. Doesn't x2 hold the record at 3700+ theaters? That's not to say that 3600 won't be enough to bring home the bacon.

 

[SoundofSilence]

Yeah, you're seeing advertising on every other channel, every other hour -- yet the buzz for this movie still isn't that great. Most people are saying The Hulk looks fake and the story looks chessy -- they weren't saying that when X-Men 2 was about to come out.

X2 had more buzz, opened in more theaters, and probably had a very similar marketing budget than Hulk, and they are opening to the same target audience.

 

[Oren1]

I would argue that while yes, the buzz for X2 was better than the Hulk, the Hulk still has the potential to do equal or greater numbers. It just got taken out by Harry Potter on the Yahoo buzz index but is holding steady at #3. X2 never made it to #1 either, that title was held by Reloaded. Don't ask me why 2 Fast 2 Furious is #1 but I never claimed that this chart was a definitive recource, just a general tool. The marketing is helping this film a lot, it was below 10 last week. And although it does look a bit cheesy, the previews still appeal to a vast number of movie fans. It has a lot of action and special effects, and a big green monster. Kids love the Hulk. Adults will go just to witness the spectacle. I think it looka a bit lame in the ads but I'm going to go anyways, because I think the story itself and directing style should be interesting and worth my 8 bucks at the very least.

 

[Oren1]

I'll add that you could be right, it might not make it out of the 70's this weekend, in fact, my early prediction I think was around 75. But my feeling is the odds are greater that it will fall somewhere in the mid 80's.