There is no advantage though! You won't find anything anywhere that says you should double on a hard 12. More computer simulations have been run on 21 than any other game. Trust me, if there was one tiny little nuance of a situation where doubling on a 12 was profitable it would be in print throughout thousands of books across the country. You aren't basing your theory on math...just hunches...if you makes it you feel good to double on a 12 then do. But don't think you are outsmarting anyone other than yourself by doing it.
@kidman: You don't have a 70% chance of improving your hand:
Out of the 52 in a deck (not accounting for the 2 cards in your hand):
You have 16 cards with a ten value left, that have you instantly lose your hand because you bust
You have another 16 cards in the deck (2,3,4,A) that don't improve your hand at all since any hand value below 16 is technically as bad as 12 (and like the article earlier in the thread stated, the dealer busts only 35% of the time when showing a 2)...
So you have a total of 32 cards that don't improve your hand at all, while you double your risk on said single hand. You instantly lose on 16 of 52 cards and on another 16 you have to hope for the dealer to bust...it's getting too complicated for me to explain your exact chances, but your 70% probability of improving the hand are way off....
Out of the 52 in a deck (not accounting for the 2 cards in your hand):
You have 16 cards with a ten value left, that have you instantly lose your hand because you bust
You have another 16 cards in the deck (2,3,4,A) that don't improve your hand at all since any hand value below 16 is technically as bad as 12 (and like the article earlier in the thread stated, the dealer busts only 35% of the time when showing a 2)...
So you have a total of 32 cards that don't improve your hand at all, while you double your risk on said single hand. You instantly lose on 16 of 52 cards and on another 16 you have to hope for the dealer to bust...it's getting too complicated for me to explain your exact chances, but your 70% probability of improving the hand are way off....
basic strategy is based on math... there is no arguing math. why is this even a discussion? unless you are a counter which im sure the majority are not, playing basic strategy is simply playing the odds. kidman no offense but the majority of the stuff you have posted is absolute nonsense and the reason why most people lose playing blackjack. i am a dealer in delaware and laugh at how stupid people are. you simply cannot argue math... its that simple.
But even with a 5 or 6 showing he is going to bust around 42-43% of the time. So in more than 50% of the cases he is ending up with a hand valued 17-21.
You on the other hand after a double down lose about 25% of the time because your busting (therefore losing part of the hands, the dealer would have busted and therefore you would have won) and on another 25% hands you end up with the same crappy hand, that loses 57% of the time.
Leaving you with less than 50%, where your hand value has to beat the hand value of the dealer...and your improved winning percentage in those hands would have to make up for the hands where you busted out while double down (25% of the time, so since the dealer would have busted out 43% of the time in those hands, you would have to make up for those hands....)
You on the other hand after a double down lose about 25% of the time because your busting (therefore losing part of the hands, the dealer would have busted and therefore you would have won) and on another 25% hands you end up with the same crappy hand, that loses 57% of the time.
Leaving you with less than 50%, where your hand value has to beat the hand value of the dealer...and your improved winning percentage in those hands would have to make up for the hands where you busted out while double down (25% of the time, so since the dealer would have busted out 43% of the time in those hands, you would have to make up for those hands....)
my favorite thing is that people actually believe bad players can influence there chances of winning, as though the cards are set in a predetermined order. oh let me sit this one out and change the cards! idiots. even otherwise intelligent people make comments like this. it is sad and pathetic to watch at times.
terps- if a player sits out a hand, it would change the cards everyone gets from that point on. im not saying it would help or hurt any player, but they would be seeing different hands from then on, ofcourse depending on how people hit or stand, could get back in the same order of cards as if they never left.
harrahs in north kansas city, only been doing it for a few days. i enjoy it, but like you said sometimes its hard to react to people dumping money to you and their reactions. this thread is teaching me that i have alot to learn, but like i said im new. Ive normally always stuck to sports betting and never been big on casinos outside of vegas, but i mostly play pai gow while drinking and maybe some miss stud or craps with friends.
