DNI Mourinho's NHL 2014 Season - By DNI Mourinho

[DNIMourinho]

DNI MOURINHO OFFICIAL SATURDAY PLAY

5-0, +$4,381.10

12/12: +$892.70
12/14: +$915.00
12/16: +$410.45
12/18: +$1,596.20
12/19: +$566.75
12/20: ??????



Gentlemen,

I present to you my official play today, with, a potential quasi-hedge on Machida at the end of night (pending of course the early NHL plays all hit). This means that if all plays hit before Machida, I would take a reverse position of Machida to LOSE by DECISION, just to keep me from losing on a judge decision. Without Further Ado, we look to go 6-0.

PARLAY (5 TEAMS) 12/20/2014 @ 04:05 PM NHL 01. NHL - Alternative Lines (1) [79572] LOS ANGELES +1.5 -700 (ARIZONA vrs LOS ANGELES: Alternative Lines) 12/20/2014 @ 07:05 PM NHL 01. NHL - Alternative Lines (1) [79574] MONTREAL +1.5 -590 (OTTAWA vrs MONTREAL: Alternative Lines) 12/20/2014 @ 07:05 PM NHL 01. NHL - Alternative Lines (1) [79584] PITTSBURGH +1.5 -680 (FLORIDA vrs PITTSBURGH: Alternative Lines) 12/21/2014 @ 12:15 AM MU [24402] LYOTO MACHIDA -700 (C.B. DOLLAWAY vrs LYOTO MACHIDA) 12/20/2014 @ 11:45 PM MU [24406] RENAN BARAO -900 (MITCH GAGNON vrs RENAN BARAO)

1000.00

946.80

Sincerely,

DNI Mourinho

 

[DChosta]

Nice job on the parlay last night, I also played Hawn in a couple MMA parlays as well. Glad to have another UFC card to finish out the year after that Lawler/Hendricks bout. Your betting strategy seems to be working pretty well so far, hope it continues for you. I wish I could feel as comfortable with puck-lines as I do with throwing Machida and Barao in a parlay though. Even though are certainly upsets in UFC, I feel that most of the top-tier elite level fighters vs. #10-15 bouts tend to be more predictable than hockey games are for me at least.

 

[DNIMourinho]

Nice job on the parlay last night, I also played Hawn in a couple MMA parlays as well. Glad to have another UFC card to finish out the year after that Lawler/Hendricks bout. Your betting strategy seems to be working pretty well so far, hope it continues for you. I wish I could feel as comfortable with puck-lines as I do with throwing Machida and Barao in a parlay though. Even though are certainly upsets in UFC, I feel that most of the top-tier elite level fighters vs. #10-15 bouts tend to be more predictable than hockey games are for me at least.

Thanks! I agree, I don't feel the MMA part is the problem on this play, if anything it will be NHL tonight that blows it. First, we the Kings to at least hold on here to a tie or OT (or win). I'm most 'nervous' about Montreal though.

Sincerely,

DNI Mourinho

 

[DNIMourinho]

DNI MOURINHO OFFICIAL SATURDAY PLAY

5-0, +$4,381.10

12/12: +$892.70
12/14: +$915.00
12/16: +$410.45
12/18: +$1,596.20
12/19: +$566.75
12/20: ??????



Gentlemen,

I present to you my official play today, with, a potential quasi-hedge on Machida at the end of night (pending of course the early NHL plays all hit). This means that if all plays hit before Machida, I would take a reverse position of Machida to LOSE by DECISION, just to keep me from losing on a judge decision. Without Further Ado, we look to go 6-0.

PARLAY (5 TEAMS) 12/20/2014 @ 04:05 PM NHL 01. NHL - Alternative Lines (1) [79572] LOS ANGELES +1.5 -700 (ARIZONA vrs LOS ANGELES: Alternative Lines) 12/20/2014 @ 07:05 PM NHL 01. NHL - Alternative Lines (1) [79574] MONTREAL +1.5 -590 (OTTAWA vrs MONTREAL: Alternative Lines) 12/20/2014 @ 07:05 PM NHL 01. NHL - Alternative Lines (1) [79584] PITTSBURGH +1.5 -680 (FLORIDA vrs PITTSBURGH: Alternative Lines) 12/21/2014 @ 12:15 AM MU [24402] LYOTO MACHIDA -700 (C.B. DOLLAWAY vrs LYOTO MACHIDA) 12/20/2014 @ 11:45 PM MU [24406] RENAN BARAO -900 (MITCH GAGNON vrs RENAN BARAO)

1000.00

946.80

Sincerely,

DNI Mourinho

Now onto the meat of our play gentlemen.

 

[DNIMourinho]

Montreal and Pittsburgh looking good. Perhaps some nice MMA to finish off the night?

 

[DNIMourinho]

6-0.

 

[DChosta]

Excellent work once again DNI. Machida just looked way out of Dollaway's league tonight with the first round stoppage. To be honest I'm somewhat glad that you are flying under the radar at the moment since I can go right to your thread daily without sifting through irrelevant chatter like other threads. I have no doubt that if you continue to keep hitting that the clip you're on, we'll be seeing more heads popping in here. Have you considered tracking your NHL plays if you hypothetically played SU ML's for your hockey bets thus far? I understand the alternate pucklines provide a safety valve in case of a late score/OT but I'm interested to see if betting strictly hockey MLs individually in your parlays would be also be profitable approach.

If you're comfortable with doing so. Would you mind shedding some light on your capping process? I'm always interested to learn other strategies and eager to adapt them to my own betting philosophy to help myself be a smarter bettor by learning from my mistakes/lessons of others. In any case, congrats on another winning night and hope that your good fortune continues.

 

[DNIMourinho]

Excellent work once again DNI. Machida just looked way out of Dollaway's league tonight with the first round stoppage. To be honest I'm somewhat glad that you are flying under the radar at the moment since I can go right to your thread daily without sifting through irrelevant chatter like other threads. I have no doubt that if you continue to keep hitting that the clip you're on, we'll be seeing more heads popping in here. Have you considered tracking your NHL plays if you hypothetically played SU ML's for your hockey bets thus far? I understand the alternate pucklines provide a safety valve in case of a late score/OT but I'm interested to see if betting strictly hockey MLs individually in your parlays would be also be profitable approach.

If you're comfortable with doing so. Would you mind shedding some light on your capping process? I'm always interested to learn other strategies and eager to adapt them to my own betting philosophy to help myself be a smarter bettor by learning from my mistakes/lessons of others. In any case, congrats on another winning night and hope that your good fortune continues.

Hi friend,

Thank you! You Have been very kind and I enjoy our conversation together. You seem like an educated individual both in wagering and more importantly, life.

I would be happy to take viewers and yourself through my game by game analysis on how I decide my picks. I'll try to do that for my next play, though on weekends I am usually on my mobile so it's easier for me to do by a computer during the week.

I'm just doing this to help others and give back something. I don't want anything in return, but it is nice to know people are hopefully earning money off my picks.

Sincerely,

DNI Mourinho

 

[DNIMourinho]

dni mourinho recap

6-0, +$5,327.90

12/12: +$892.70
12/14: +$915.00
12/16: +$410.45
12/18: +$1,596.20
12/19: +$566.75
12/20: +$946.80

 

[DChosta]

Thank you for the kind words. I'm looking forward to see if you have plays for tonight's card.

 

[globulous]

Hi friend,

Thank you! You Have been very kind and I enjoy our conversation together.....

I'm sorry, I can't resist.. I just finished reading 2001: A Space Odyssey by Arthur C. Clarke, and am now finishing up 2010: Odyssey Two, and this line reminds me way too much of HAL

 

[DNIMourinho]

Gentlemen,

I actually made a play yesterday, but couldn't post it in time, so it wouldn't have benefited anyone so I won't include it on record. Just for your information though it was the following.

PARLAY (5 TEAMS)( Risking: 1300.60 - To Win: 1238.20 ) WIN​ 12/21/2014 04:25 PM MU [21450] ANDREW LUCK- NO -350 (ANDREW LUCK- YES vrs ANDREW LUCK- NO) (INDIANAPOLIS vrs DALLAS: Player to Score a Touchdo)Score: ANDREW LUCK- YES(0) - ANDREW LUCK- NO(1) WIN 12/21/2014 08:30 PM MU [907238] NO -1650 (YES vrs NO) (SEATTLE vrs ARIZONA: Will There be a Safety SC in)Score: YES(0) - NO(1) WIN 12/21/2014 07:05 PM NHL [79576] NY RANGERS +1.5 -770 (CAROLINA vrs NY RANGERS: Alternative Lines)Score: CAROLINA(0) - NY RANGERS(1) WIN 12/21/2014 07:05 PM NHL [79578] CHICAGO +1.5 -590 (TORONTO vrs CHICAGO: Alternative Lines)Score: TORONTO(0) - CHICAGO(4) WIN 12/21/2014 07:05 PM NHL [79580] BOSTON +1.5 -1200 (BUFFALO vrs BOSTON: Alternative Lines)Score: BUFFALO(3) - BOSTON(4) WIN

$1238.20

 

[lmindcrimel]

Hi friend,

Thank you! You Have been very kind and I enjoy our conversation together. You seem like an educated individual both in wagering and more importantly, life.

I would be happy to take viewers and yourself through my game by game analysis on how I decide my picks. I'll try to do that for my next play, though on weekends I am usually on my mobile so it's easier for me to do by a computer during the week.

I'm just doing this to help others and give back something. I don't want anything in return, but it is nice to know people are hopefully earning money off my picks.

Sincerely,

DNI Mourinho

I can only get certain lines as well. I would love to see a variation of your plays for those of us that cannot parlay alternative lines. I can get them, but only straight up like props. Here are the NHL options I have. I can also not get MMA added to an NHL parlay for some reason. I don't play on internet sites, just a personal preference, I have an actual agent through Wager888. The agent is a friend of a friend, so I usually don't contact him directly unless I need to make a correction within 1/2 hr of placing a wager.

Here is what a card looks like on an average night...



These are my 2 most recent NHL plays. I don't particularly care to risk more than $100 at a time, but I don't have a "limit" per say, more of a tolerance for what I'm willing to play with. I haven't had to pay out on NHL yet this year, and usually play 2-3 cards/wk. My other play between these was a 100 to win 270 ML saturday 12/20 Hab,Rags,Pens.




As I stated earlier in the thread, picking NHL has come easier to me than any other sport. I have been following hockey since I could skate, which was before I could walk. I was always more interested in wagering on sports that were moore sociable and that friends wagered as well. (NFL / Hoops)

I'm sure I can't keep getting lucky on 5 teams/night ML. I don't plan to stop trying, but I would like to try and play a system and not just keep picking games based on research, intel, goalie match-ups, and gut feelings like Colorado last night. I know that no system is guaranteed, or perfect, but there has to be something I can do to sure up my methods, or at least increase my likelihood of staying profitable.

Any insight is greatly appreciated. Flaming and mocking is always welcome as well, Merry Christmas trolls. santa-mooning

 

[DNIMourinho]

Hi Friend,

To the above Poster, Lmind, I would like to discuss some of the issues you present.

Just curious, I know you stated 'personal preference' is not to play online with an offshore, but what's stopping you? I only ask for instance, because I certainly feel safe with keeping over $20K in an online account already, so aside from 'trusting' issues with offshores having your money, is there any other issue?

Also, congratulations on your hits with the parlays. Although I obviously parlay plays myself, I'm putting each individual play at my favor, whereas with those large ML parlays you have, they are not always going to hit as consistently. I will eventually lose a play, obviously, but given my low-juice I pay (meaning, although I parlay 4-5 large money line plays) it's the same as paying maybe, -115 or so for my play. So, as my record as indicated, if I win say, 75% of my plays, I'm making a substantially higher margin, and I have all single game plays with odds-on favorite to win.

 

[DNIMourinho]

There's a couple of good NHL games today, might tie-in with MNF too. We will see as day progresses.

 

[lmindcrimel]

I don't have to link any form of electronic payment, I don't have to have money in an account, I can wager without any money available and make the cash available to him if I need to pay. I can wager as much as I'd like, and I can call for cash drop-off on Monday mornings. Most of all, absolutely nothing is traceable other than the IP address I access the online service from.

As I stated I would like to be able to parlay the alternative lines to push the lines in my favor, but they aren't available for parlays.

You would prefer to hit 75% to have a good margin @ -110. I can lose 90% and still be up 10:1 on investment. Am I looking at this the wrong way?

 

[DChosta]

I understand why people tend to use agents (locals) as opposed to off-shore sites to get week-2-week payments and not have any sort of electronic paper trail. However, there are certainly some downsides to this as you generally get worse lines + higher juice with locals/agent sites than with off-shores and do not have as many outs for hedging opportunities/alternative lines. In addition, playing on "credit' can lead you down a slippery slope to chasing unless you develop good money management. Having to place your own money into an account makes you really consider your bets before hitting the submit button IMO (similar to using cash vs credit card) at a store. Unless you are generally a high-stakes player, I personally worry wouldn't so much about the paper trail aspect nor leaving your money with a REPUTABLE sportsbook as I have not experienced any problems with 5dimes or bet365/pinny (when they were available to US).

In a fluke activity such as gambling it's crucial to have as many "outs" as possible and make sure that you are getting the best lines that are in your favor. At standard -110 juice you need to hit 55% just to break even. If you can hit 60% or better consistently throughout as season, you can become a very rich man. Although I do not know if 75% is necessarily sustainable, hitting a high rate with limited juice (+100 to -115) range is a much more profitable proposition in the long run than trying to play too many plays at with juice heavy or incredibly difficult parlays with huge payouts.

 

[DNIMourinho]

I don't have to link any form of electronic payment, I don't have to have money in an account, I can wager without any money available and make the cash available to him if I need to pay. I can wager as much as I'd like, and I can call for cash drop-off on Monday mornings. Most of all, absolutely nothing is traceable other than the IP address I access the online service from.

As I stated I would like to be able to parlay the alternative lines to push the lines in my favor, but they aren't available for parlays.

You would prefer to hit 75% to have a good margin @ -110. I can lose 90% and still be up 10:1 on investment. Am I looking at this the wrong way?

You asked, "am I looking at this the wrong way".

No way that makes money, at least sustainable money, is a 'wrong way'. If you prefer to play $50 plays to win $500, and you are hitting at a percentage that will provide cash flow and sustainable income for your future wagers, than by all means, you've found a recipe for success.

I, however, agree with DChosta's take here. The method which I employ, for the most part, allows you two major benefits.

1. Playing a +1.5 at -600 or so clearly puts the edge on each individual game in your favor. As you've seen here, if you are fairly good and experienced at reading NHL, then you may once in a while lose these -600 type of plays. But, that's no big deal because you are never paying -600 in the first place as a single wager, but rather as a value-add to your overall play. Sure, it may lose a couple times, but since we play disciplined plays, and we aim for + money through - 125 wagers, it's okay to lose say, 30% of the time.

2. This is the biggest/best component, in my opinion. That being the 'OUTS'. IF, I have successfully navigated 3/4 legs in a parlay, I always have the ability to Live Bet my way out of the last leg IF things don't look good, OR I wish to reduce my total risk i'm exposed.

These are the advantages.

The disadvantage is that I'm playing a series of games, all in one play, so the risk of any parlay is the risk I take on: Namely, that I'm burned by one play. But again, a potential loss mitigating circumstance would apply if a quasi-hedge or full hedge was executed if I'm able in the last game of a play. In this regard, I often wish or would like to have my last play be a soccer play, as I have the best hedging opportunities in soccer.

 

[DNIMourinho]

The Penguins Line looks off to me, and I wouldn't play this game, could be a Florida Upset tonight.

 

[DNIMourinho]

Teams I'm looking at using:

Washington
LA Kings
Vancouver

The Ducks/Sharks game is tough to call honestly, sharks in such good form.