Lincecum got knocked around pretty good last time out. I see a Cliff Lee type of performance out of him today to break out of his slump. Not spectacular, but solid and I don't see the D-Backs scoring more than 3 in this one.
Best of luck getting back on track today. I will be playing a couple of these myself.
Best of luck getting back on track today. I will be playing a couple of these myself.
Thats very true about the RL hurting today BUT when I was winning a ton of games last 2 weeks I had none like that so I made extra money from betting RL. I've actually been keeping track of how my record wouldve changed had I done all RL and all ML...my picking and choosing hybrid method is multiple units ahead of each. So I understand you dont like them but it works in the long run for us I think
First, thanks for sharing your efforts. Looks very promising.
As for RL vs ML, to base any opinion on the small sample size you have would not be valid. There is really no need to guess at this, as it can be proven statistically one way or another; I just don't have the answer, but someone reading this does. I would imagine there is a cut-off, or "break-even" point in the ML where the advantage shifts. Maybe not. Can any of our statisticians out there clear this up? Thanks and gl.
Thanks for the supports guys, hopefully we call cash big today.
Jack, I know what you mean but I think the books do a good job of making it pretty tough to call either way. I'm far from "guessing", though just in case anybody is interested. I just do the best I can by taking the approximate amount of games that are decided by one run, about 28%, and do a little quick math with the RL + ML (looking for percentage of the time needed to win by each to come out even). Then I take into account certain factors like will it be high-scoring/low-scoring, do we have the home team/away team, and sometimes just decide its smarter to grab +120 RL and risk 1 Unit rather than throw down 1.7 Units on a favorite that could choke and more than cancel out one of our many "dog" winners.
As a little added bonus, a post by MisterMJ in a thread debating RL/ML did have statistics showing that teams favored by more than -120 ML (I think, close to that # anyway) beat the RL at a percentage that makes it the smarter move oftentimes. So, I feel like I have a little strategy combining many factors going on and its working out as well as I can hope for thus far and yesterday was really the first day to bite us in the ass.
Thanks for trying to help though, I'm always open to changing this plan if people show me something really convincing but I havent seen it yet and things are doin OK so far
GL today, guys!:toast:
Go Celtics...Go Bruins...Go Sox!!!! Big day today, hopefully I see 3 W's and 6 more on the betting card!!! @)
Jack, I know what you mean but I think the books do a good job of making it pretty tough to call either way. I'm far from "guessing", though just in case anybody is interested. I just do the best I can by taking the approximate amount of games that are decided by one run, about 28%, and do a little quick math with the RL + ML (looking for percentage of the time needed to win by each to come out even). Then I take into account certain factors like will it be high-scoring/low-scoring, do we have the home team/away team, and sometimes just decide its smarter to grab +120 RL and risk 1 Unit rather than throw down 1.7 Units on a favorite that could choke and more than cancel out one of our many "dog" winners.
As a little added bonus, a post by MisterMJ in a thread debating RL/ML did have statistics showing that teams favored by more than -120 ML (I think, close to that # anyway) beat the RL at a percentage that makes it the smarter move oftentimes. So, I feel like I have a little strategy combining many factors going on and its working out as well as I can hope for thus far and yesterday was really the first day to bite us in the ass.
Thanks for trying to help though, I'm always open to changing this plan if people show me something really convincing but I havent seen it yet and things are doin OK so far
GL today, guys!:toast:
Go Celtics...Go Bruins...Go Sox!!!! Big day today, hopefully I see 3 W's and 6 more on the betting card!!! @)
Started the day 0-1 now with the Yankees, I guess I shouldve stopped fading the Indians...definitely not back for more on them tomorrow, Yanks are just an awful team who apparently should have been the team I was fading.
It seems like every decision I've made the last 3-4 days has been wrong (kept fading Indians, started tailing Phillies, stopped tailing Marlins) so if today ends how it has started, I'll probably take tomorrow off to regroup.
^<<^
It seems like every decision I've made the last 3-4 days has been wrong (kept fading Indians, started tailing Phillies, stopped tailing Marlins) so if today ends how it has started, I'll probably take tomorrow off to regroup.
^<<^
C'mon Giants! Put up a few runs, dont waste this absolute gem by Lincecum...we need this game!
On a side note, those of you who usually check out this thread please take a look at my other thread ("Best Fades and Follows...") and make your voices heard. It will be much appreciated and hopefully assist me in spitting out a better record than I have the last couple days
Thanks guys, GL the rest of the evening :toast:
On a side note, those of you who usually check out this thread please take a look at my other thread ("Best Fades and Follows...") and make your voices heard. It will be much appreciated and hopefully assist me in spitting out a better record than I have the last couple days
Thanks guys, GL the rest of the evening :toast:
Damn guys, looks like the luck is running a little bit dry. Another RL-1.5 pick looks like it will win by one run. If things end how they are now, though, I'll have a few bets tomorrow. I was thinking of taking the day off if it was a disaster but I think we'll do well enough tonight that I can limit the card tomorrow and get us a couple winners, then re-evaluate things on Sunday night/Monday morning and get back on track for some big winners rather than the mediocre results of the last few days
Runlines
Giants -1.5 (+130) LOSER -1 Unit
Phillies -1.5 (+120) LOSER -1 Unit
Twins -1.5 (+160) WINNER +1.6 Units
Yankees -1.5 (+140) LOSER -1 Unit
Moneylines
Reds +110 LOSER -1 Unit
White Sox +140 WINNER 1.4 Units
Daily Total: 2-4, -1.0 Unit
Week 2: 19-15, +11.21 Units* (includes +3.17 parlay)
YTD 40-26, +25.08 Units
Well...definitely not what we were hoping for but for the second time this weekend, I stuck with teams that I probably should have dropped. I was just hoping they were due for a win and really I should have realized that in reality, outcomes arent decided by being "due". So I made a few mistakes the last couple of days that could have made the difference between up a unit or two and down a unit or two. On the bright side, I've definitely seen enough to make a few changes to the teams involved and I think a smaller, more focused card tomorrow will get us some good results. By Tuesday, I should have a full set of teams to go with and hopefully come as close as possible to duplicating the first 1.5 weeks success
Plus, if someone had told me I was going to be up 25 units through two weeks, I would have been thrilled. You just have to take things as a whole and try to keep it in perspective rather than focus on how you got there. If we had won 2 units each and every day, we'd feel better today but in the end its the same diff by winning 6 or 7 units on Monday and losing a unit today. Thats what staying consistent and not getting greedy does for you.
I'll have plays up in a few hours. GL with the late game to anyone with a play on it!
Giants -1.5 (+130) LOSER -1 Unit
Phillies -1.5 (+120) LOSER -1 Unit
Twins -1.5 (+160) WINNER +1.6 Units
Yankees -1.5 (+140) LOSER -1 Unit
Moneylines
Reds +110 LOSER -1 Unit
White Sox +140 WINNER 1.4 Units
Daily Total: 2-4, -1.0 Unit
Week 2: 19-15, +11.21 Units* (includes +3.17 parlay)
YTD 40-26, +25.08 Units
Well...definitely not what we were hoping for but for the second time this weekend, I stuck with teams that I probably should have dropped. I was just hoping they were due for a win and really I should have realized that in reality, outcomes arent decided by being "due". So I made a few mistakes the last couple of days that could have made the difference between up a unit or two and down a unit or two. On the bright side, I've definitely seen enough to make a few changes to the teams involved and I think a smaller, more focused card tomorrow will get us some good results. By Tuesday, I should have a full set of teams to go with and hopefully come as close as possible to duplicating the first 1.5 weeks success
Plus, if someone had told me I was going to be up 25 units through two weeks, I would have been thrilled. You just have to take things as a whole and try to keep it in perspective rather than focus on how you got there. If we had won 2 units each and every day, we'd feel better today but in the end its the same diff by winning 6 or 7 units on Monday and losing a unit today. Thats what staying consistent and not getting greedy does for you.
I'll have plays up in a few hours. GL with the late game to anyone with a play on it!
YTD 40-26, +25.08 Units
Week 2: 19-15, +11.21 Units* (includes +3.17 parlay)
Thanks for the suggestions in the other thread to everyone who contributed. For now, I'm not making too many changes...waiting until Monday to see the lines for the new series and how they've been adjusted to recent results and public perception. Then I'll compare them to our opinions and see if we have any opportunities. As far as today's concerned, I figured I'd have a limited card but two things made me add extra plays at the end, making it 6 plays for me: Daniel Cabrera is HORRIBLE so I had to jump back on the Marlins for at least today and the Ranger/Royals Over looked nice to me again, too. Totals are not based on my usual method obviously but I'm 1-0 officially on them and also was right on my "unofficial" play on Friday, so take it FWIW:
Runlines
Marlins -1.5 (+120)
Twins -1.5 (+140)
Moneylines
Pirates +103
Reds -113
White Sox +145
Total
Rangers/Royals Over 10 (-115)
These are, as always, All 1 Unit and I feel a lot more confident today than I did about two of the last three days anyway. Obviously after the fact I don't feel so great about any of them (even though -1.0 Unit was the worst of them) but I also didnt feel the same level of confidence going into them as I did on Monday for example. Today, that really confident feeling is back and I truthfully expect an above-.500 day and given that its all -115 or better odds, that would mean a real quality final tally. Lets finish the week strong because things will deifnitely looking up again starting tomorrow! :toast::toast::toast:
Week 2: 19-15, +11.21 Units* (includes +3.17 parlay)
Thanks for the suggestions in the other thread to everyone who contributed. For now, I'm not making too many changes...waiting until Monday to see the lines for the new series and how they've been adjusted to recent results and public perception. Then I'll compare them to our opinions and see if we have any opportunities. As far as today's concerned, I figured I'd have a limited card but two things made me add extra plays at the end, making it 6 plays for me: Daniel Cabrera is HORRIBLE so I had to jump back on the Marlins for at least today and the Ranger/Royals Over looked nice to me again, too. Totals are not based on my usual method obviously but I'm 1-0 officially on them and also was right on my "unofficial" play on Friday, so take it FWIW:
Runlines
Marlins -1.5 (+120)
Twins -1.5 (+140)
Moneylines
Pirates +103
Reds -113
White Sox +145
Total
Rangers/Royals Over 10 (-115)
These are, as always, All 1 Unit and I feel a lot more confident today than I did about two of the last three days anyway. Obviously after the fact I don't feel so great about any of them (even though -1.0 Unit was the worst of them) but I also didnt feel the same level of confidence going into them as I did on Monday for example. Today, that really confident feeling is back and I truthfully expect an above-.500 day and given that its all -115 or better odds, that would mean a real quality final tally. Lets finish the week strong because things will deifnitely looking up again starting tomorrow! :toast::toast::toast:
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