Dial Square Soccer Thread

[DialSquares]

i was hoping for a 3rd goal in Aue before HT but not quite...that 3rd goal might be tough to get as Fortuna will no doubt sit back in the 2nd half...maybe they can get the 3rd.

taking off for awhile so no time for write up:

France Ligue II
Angers v Amiens
Angers -0.75 -114 - 1.14 to win 1 unit

German Bundesliga I
SC Freiburg v VfB Stuttgart
over 2.5, 3.0 goals -117 - 1.17 to win 1 unit

GL

 

[chriscol]

well done in 2.liga

let s hope for more goals in freiburg now

 

[DialSquares]

thanks chriscol - i was on that over but very nice to see you were on it too....it was looking like freiburg was going to get one but took them long enough....

Saturday Sept 16th
England Championship
Nottingham Forest v Derby County
over 2.5 goals -105 - 1.05 to win 1 unit
both clubs are 50-50 on the over under and derby 3 unders in 3 road game but still have a good shot at goals here. Nottingham in their last 4 games (1 cup) have had games with at least 4 goals in them - Derby 2 over in their last 3 with the one under being a 2-0 lost. H2H 7 of the last 8 games have gone over with the last 5 having at least 4 goals. With 2 straight losses for derby a struggling nottingham might be what they need to win again - both to score is a solid play but i'll risk the better odds and hope for at least a 1-2 winner.

---that millwall v west ham game is one of those rivals that is just too insane to bet imo. Game could be postponed after 20 mins due to fan violence or might be a tight match as both teams won't want to stir trouble in the stands....for those that don't follow footy often i recommend reading the millwall v west ham rival and history....crazy stuff and no reason to think the fans arent still waiting for this one...no bet and just watch the crazy

i'd like to bet the German II games but they couldn't be much harder then they are...both duisburg and union are high scoring but not so much h2h and i just don't see the goals tomorrow. I like both games to go under but i have a hard time betting German II unders...

so 1 game for the early morning

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

funny u mention the footy match with millwall and west ham...was watching 'football factory' thurs nite....good book.... fucked up story..didn't even know there was a movie to the book til i stumbled upon it the other nite on netflix...all those wackos along the river are delusional...

 

[DialSquares]

i haven't read the book but i did enjoy the football factory series...the international football factory is pretty good to...esp the former yugoslavia rivalries.....i'd hate to be a gunners fan right now...oh wait...we are going for an own goal hatrick right now...

close to kickoff so no writeup
German Bundesliga I
Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Borussia Mönchengladbach draw no bet +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit

1899 Hoffenheim v VfL Wolfsburg
over 2.5, 3.0 -109 - 1.09 to win 1 unit
i think levenkausen would be a great double bet but i took my chances with them midweek and there is no way i'd get 2 bayer wins in one week.

england to come

 

[DialSquares]

EPL
Bolton v Norwich
Bolton -114 - 1.14 to win 1 unit

Wolves v QPR
Wolves +109 - 0.91 to win 1 unit
never bad to bet against promotional sides on the road ... why the bolton odds is so good is beyond me

England Championship
Leeds United v Bristol City
Leeds United -0.5, -1 -108 - 1.08 to win 1 unit

 

[DialSquares]

3-0 in the first two post and 0-3 in the later...

German Bundesliga I
Kaiserslautern V Mainz
Mainz Draw No Bet +100 - 1.00 to win 1 unit

that inter v roma game looks interesting ..

 

[DialSquares]

EPL
Manchester United v Chelsea
over 2.5 goals -118 - 1.18 to win 1 unit

reason: I just hope for a classic EPL match with plenty of goals and drama....but 5 of the 6 H2H have been overs and United have been scoring like mad. 1-1 always worries me in games like this but someone wins 2-1 i think..Chelski could surprise for sure today.

maybe some afternoon games but i doubt it..
GL

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

good call...good thing u got this outta the way early and didn't have to depend on what can only be described as 2 of the most bizarre misses of all time...rooney pk and torres missed empty netter....they both should have had hat trix.....sweet as

 

[DialSquares]

haha...rooney provided a very good laugh and i didn't even think what my reaction would have been if the game was 1-1...nice to win it early but i never like to see united win even against Chelski...for me it's all about trying to make top 4 (some gunner fans are saying we won't make EUROPA .. haha...)...top 3 is done though. But i knew that once we lost fabergas and nasri...even with the new signings...next year we will contend i think.....maybe with a few less North American fans though..haha..

Denmark Super Ligaen
AC Horsens v Odense BK
over 2.5 goals -125 - 1.25 to win 1 unit
i'd bet the 2.75 goals if your odds are closer to the -143 range....very good idea to have 6-7 books if you can. 5 of the last 6 matches in Horsens have gone over. OBK have played 5 straight overs including a hard fought 3-1 win midweek vs Wisla Krakow. They will probably be a bit tired over the win but that could help AC Horsens who have played 3 straight overs themselves. Odense 4 overs in 4 road matches, Horsens 3 overs in 4 home matches. On paper solid over bet ... i try to avoid teams that played midweek but they did get that 1 day extra rest.

Sweden Allsvenskan
AIK v Djurgårdens
AIK -103 -1.03 to win 1 unit
i'll be the sucker today....no reason odds at near even other than the fact it is a local derby. And maybe bookies think it is time for those relegation zone teams to start getting results. 4 straight road losses and just 1 win in 6. Perhaps they are fighting relegation because of form..but no doubt they would love to gain on 14th Trelleborg at the expense of AIK. Yet AIK 10-0-2 at home losing to Elfsborg and Gefle and have a 5 game winning streak. It is going to be hard to catch Helsingborg for the CL spot but a win would get them 5 points back (with helsingborg playing Elfsborg on the road next round) and all but wrap up a top 3 spot. I know there is a general rule about betting derbys and AIK with just 1 win in 4 H2H at home but certainly AIK fans would love for their club to help relegate Djurgardens....

German Bundesliga II
Karlsruher SC v FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli 0, -0.5 -125 -1.25 to win 1unit
not sure i'd back st pauli straight win here...away teams are only winning 25% of the time and 9 of the 18 road wins are by 3 teams. St Pauli with just 1 win in 3 road games (some tough games though). Karlsruher are pretty bad right now no doubt and probably will be one of the favourites for relegation and middle of the table Frankfurt did blow them out 4-0. All signs really point to a road team but a poor showing and a draw very possible. Yet with a win St Pauli can leap frog a few teams and tie Furth on top of the standings..albeit 8 games into the year. 1-3 1-2 pauli but 1-1 0-0 wouldn't shock me.

GL

 

[chriscol]

haha...rooney provided a very good laugh and i didn't even think what my reaction would have been if the game was 1-1...nice to win it early but i never like to see united win even against Chelski...for me it's all about trying to make top 4 (some gunner fans are saying we won't make EUROPA .. haha...)...top 3 is done though. But i knew that once we lost fabergas and nasri...even with the new signings...next year we will contend i think.....maybe with a few less North American fans though..haha..

Denmark Super Ligaen
AC Horsens v Odense BK
over 2.5 goals -125 - 1.25 to win 1 unit
i'd bet the 2.75 goals if your odds are closer to the -143 range....very good idea to have 6-7 books if you can. 5 of the last 6 matches in Horsens have gone over. OBK have played 5 straight overs including a hard fought 3-1 win midweek vs Wisla Krakow. They will probably be a bit tired over the win but that could help AC Horsens who have played 3 straight overs themselves. Odense 4 overs in 4 road matches, Horsens 3 overs in 4 home matches. On paper solid over bet ... i try to avoid teams that played midweek but they did get that 1 day extra rest.

Sweden Allsvenskan
AIK v Djurgårdens
AIK -103 -1.03 to win 1 unit
i'll be the sucker today....no reason odds at near even other than the fact it is a local derby. And maybe bookies think it is time for those relegation zone teams to start getting results. 4 straight road losses and just 1 win in 6. Perhaps they are fighting relegation because of form..but no doubt they would love to gain on 14th Trelleborg at the expense of AIK. Yet AIK 10-0-2 at home losing to Elfsborg and Gefle and have a 5 game winning streak. It is going to be hard to catch Helsingborg for the CL spot but a win would get them 5 points back (with helsingborg playing Elfsborg on the road next round) and all but wrap up a top 3 spot. I know there is a general rule about betting derbys and AIK with just 1 win in 4 H2H at home but certainly AIK fans would love for their club to help relegate Djurgardens....

German Bundesliga II
Karlsruher SC v FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli 0, -0.5 -125 -1.25 to win 1unit
not sure i'd back st pauli straight win here...away teams are only winning 25% of the time and 9 of the 18 road wins are by 3 teams. St Pauli with just 1 win in 3 road games (some tough games though). Karlsruher are pretty bad right now no doubt and probably will be one of the favourites for relegation and middle of the table Frankfurt did blow them out 4-0. All signs really point to a road team but a poor showing and a draw very possible. Yet with a win St Pauli can leap frog a few teams and tie Furth on top of the standings..albeit 8 games into the year. 1-3 1-2 pauli but 1-1 0-0 wouldn't shock me.

GL

i am also on AIK and Pauli and also like the over

 

[DialSquares]

hopefully the record is accurate -

these 3 spanish games just fit with my way of betting....i am still considering carling and france but here is 3 plays i took
opefu
Spain Liga de Fútbol Profesional
Osasuna v Sevilla
Sevilla Draw No Bet aka pick -120 - 1.20 to win 1 unit
usually 1 win in something like 16 games H2H scares me but i still think sevilla should win with the draw cover.

Villarreal v Real Mallorca
Real Mallorca +0.5, +1 -103 - 1.03 to win 1 unit
perhaps villarreal will turn it around and win but to be honest it is hard to see them win big vs mallorca...maybe 1-0 home win and 1/2 loser but betting against villarreal is money right now.

Real Sociedad v Granada CF
Real Sociedad +0.5 +105 - 0.95 to win 1 unit
real sociedad started off well just losing 1-0 to sevilla and drawing barca....granada might struggle on the road all season...no slam dunk but very nice value for a home win.

back with more..
---------------

2011-12 Soccer Record:
Overall: 42-37-6 3.01 units

September: 16-7-2 +7.60 units

 

[DialSquares]

Carling Cup
Stoke v Tottenham
both teams to score: YES -137 -1.37 to win 1 unit
hopefully a winner so the over hits because i know this bet isnt available...3 games h2h in stoke and all 3 ended 2-1or 1-2. i think both clubs will take this seriously even if both are in europa and trying to have a strong year in the EPL. 1-1 FT looks very possible as the over 2.5 pays above even so perhaps skip it if you can't bet both to score

Aston Villa v Bolton
Aston Villa -133 -1.33 to win 1 unit
villa do draw a lot so that's always a worry but bolton are in a mess in the EPL and play arsenal on the weekend. They aren't one of those clubs that sacrifice league play to win cups like birmingham or pompey...and although they do want to win cup they don't seem to have a team that can compete. Villa did well in the Carling last year and without in european distraction could go all out for one of the english cups....but it will tough go for them i think...1-0

- i'll just say that i think arsenal trio of youngsters set to play might be ultra hungry to prove themselves and trash shrewsbury but hard to trust in unknowns...personally very excited for this one though.

United should win but leeds are no pushover and needing a 2 goal win is a bit much...berbatov and owen will no doubt play their part but i wouldn't trust them on the road vs leeds. I liked aldershot, Burnley and middleborough to all win but 5 bets is about my limit.

GL ----

 

[DialSquares]

i'll try and add reasoning before kickoff but probably not

Italy Serie A
AC Milan v Udinese
over 2.5 goals -125 - 1.25 to win 1 unit
12 of the last 13 H2H in milan have gone over...that's good enough for me. Milan with 2 overs in 2 this year and Udinese 2 unders but both 2-0 wins. Kinda due for an under i guess but i love trends and that's a pretty good one.

Fiorentina v Parma
Fiorentina -120 - 1.20 to win 1 unit
fiorentina has dissapointed on a number of occasion but a pretty good record vs Parma and a tough home win vs Bologna already this year. Tight one 1-0 home side.

France I
AC Ajaccio v Montpellier
Montpellier HSC 0, -0.5 -122 -1.22 to win 1 unit

FC Lorient v AJ Auxerre
Lorient +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit
a lot of draws for auxuerre so paying the -0.25 line might be a better option

Carling Cup
Cardiff City v Leicester City
over 2.5 goals -119 -1.19 to win 1 unit
only took 1 day to bet another cup game but only 1 game so that so bad.

1-3-1 yesterday so who knows what today will bring. GL

 

[DialSquares]

oops...france games already started .. wont be counted..

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

looks like yer fellow canuck just rang the first bell in citeh's carling cup match

 

[DialSquares]

nice to owen scoing...and the other owen too i guess. I am now convinced FA Cup final Man U v Man City, Carling final Man U v Man City, CL final Man U v Man City and last weekend EPL Man U and Man city tied...of course the draw might have something to say about that (and i am just kidding .. plenty of quality teams...but even i would love to see all that)....

German Bundesliga II
SC Paderborn 07 v FC Ingolstadt
Paderborn -110 - 1.10 to win 1 unit
i'm not buying this ingolstadt team esp on the road. And although Paderborn haven't won at home and do draw a lot i think they should be able to win today. Ingolostadt is 0-4 on the road scoring 2 while giving up 13 goals. Paderborn are coming off a 4-0 home win vs Bochum and haven't lost in 4. Outside of that game they are having trouble scoring and just 1 goal in 3 home games...but ingolstadt are still poor on the road and paderborn could get that first home win of the year. Nice odds anyway

FSV Frankfurt v Eintracht Braunschweig
FSV Frankfurt 0, +0.5 -121 - 1.21 to win 1 unit
a lot of love for this braunschweig team and maybe justified but frankfurt usually do play tough at home esp at the beginng of the season. Braun. are coming off a 0-0 road draw vs Rostock and their wins so far against bottom of the table clubs Aachen and Karlsruhe. So that's a draw vs 16th and wins vs 15th and 17th...so maybe the start is a little bit due to who they played. Although they did beat St Pauli and Cottbus at home so perhaps this team is for real...i still have my doubts though. Frankfurt is by no means a strong club but i think they manage at least a point today and 1/2 winner 1/2 void but i do think they can definitely win here.

i just don't like needing german II clubs to win by more than 1 so no bet on the St Pauli game. I think they win by 2+ and cover but no bet.

 

[DialSquares]

i'll be away for 8-11 days starting tomorrow..fall trip into algonquin park is a go - so that means no CL for me this week. I might try to figure out logging onto here with my cell for the weekend but i doubt it...GL all...

German Bundesliga II
Fortuna Düsseldorf v Energie Cottbus
over 3 goals +100 - 1.00 to win 1 unit.
as usually i like dusseldorf to win but it will be tough to keep cottbus from scoring and dusseldorf have been giving up goals at home despite wining most of the games. Since promotion 2 years ago h2h both games have gone over the 2.5 goals...dusselsdorf 3 out of 4 home games having at least 4 goals...cottbus 2 overs (2.5 goals) in 4 road matches. Last year Cottbus was the road over kings and i really think we will see 4+ goals in this one. at least 3

1. FC Union Berlin v Alemannia Aachen
Union Berlin 0, -0.5 -125 -1.25 to win 1 unit
this feels much like the paderborn game where the oddds suggested a much closer game than it actually was...aachen with 4 straight 0-0 scores with 2 games at home. Union with 3 straight fairly convincing home wins including a 4-1 win vs Ingolstadt....a team kinda similar to aachen. Now aachen is suppose to be a much better than their record but until they start winning it isn't a bad to bet against them. Union won last year 2-1 and perhaps same score today.

English Premier League
Arsenal v Bolton
over 3 goals -103 -1.03 to win 1 unit
Arsenal has done nothing to make think we can get a clean sheet here...perhaps the defense will figure it out soon (hopefully by midweek) but i doubt it vs a team like bolton. Bolton have started even worst than the Arsenal and also have trouble in defense. I think Arsenal is due for a break out game and maybe if they rest some players the 2nd team can prove themselves like they did vs shrewsbury...tougher opponent but a chance for them nonetheless. 8 of the last 13 h2h in london have gone over including 4-1 last year and 4-2 the year before that. I imagine both managers are trying to focus on defense considering the start but it seems arsenal can't help making the errors and perhaps know they need to score 3 goals to win games...or sometimes 4+.

English Championship
West Ham v Peterborough
over 3 goals -125 - 1.25 to win 1 unit
my last year's favourite over team has another good shot at an over tomorrow. West Ham had 4 straight games with at least 4 goals until last round 0-0 score vs millwall. P'boro is a team that can give up 3-4 goals esp on the road vs clubs like west ham but at the same time is always looking to score (and usually do score)....i think p'boro might manage a draw so hopefully 2-2 ... but then again west ham might crush them.

England Leauge One
Huddersfield Town v Leyton Orient
Huddersfield Town -1 -125 -1.25 to win 1 unit
3rd place at home vs basment dwellers so should be an easy home win right? well it is never that easy but definitely 2 teams with different forms and probably different ambitions. Certainly hudders is playing for a promotional spot and 4 wins 2 draws in their last 6. Leyton 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 6...hudders 2 draws came against top 5 mk dons and a decent oldham team...leyton just awful and with no wins in 9 games it will be an uphill battle to avoid relegation. Betting soccer isn't that easy but great chance for a home win here...hopefully by 2+ goals.

 

[DialSquares]

back but gotta lots to do in the morning but i did play some so here's my picks without reasoning:

German Bundesliga II
Eintracht Frankfurt v Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt -1 -126
Over 2.5 and 3 -123
i do think e. frankfurt win fairly easy but hard to keep Union from scoring. 2-1 or hopefully 3-1 4-1

Aachen v Frankfurt
Over 2.5 -109
i could see a 1-1 draw but aachen desperate and frankfurt not very good road team....aachen with a total of 1 goal in 9 matches so far so clearly not an easy bet...1-2 2-1 classic game i think.

 

[DialSquares]

Saturday Oct 1st
far too late to post reasoning and a good chance no one will see this before the early am kickoff but:

Germany 2.Bundesliga
FC Ingolstadt 04 v VfL Bochum
FC Ingolstadt 0 -122 -1.22 to win 1 unit

Energie Cottbus v FC St. Pauli
over 3 goals +100 -1.00 to win 1 unit
- no doubt i will jinx myself by saying this but i am 20-7 in german II this year and hit 11 straight german II plays....so 0-2 in the morning.

GL - more to come
---------------------------
2011-12 Soccer Record:
Overall: 53-44-8 5.13 units

Oct: 0-0-0 0 units
Sept: 27-14-4 +9.72 units