Dial Square Soccer Thread

[DialSquares]

Record: 21-19-4 +1.86.........
Wednesday August 17th
UEFA Champions League
Dinamo Zagreb v Malmö FF
Dinamo Zagreb -1 +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit
hard to judge how good malmo really is because rangers were not very impressive in either game. Rangers were much more impressive in the 2nd leg but that very early red card might have cost Rangers the tie. I don't know how much that Club Co-effiencent can be trusted but Zagred beat 202nd HJK Helsinki and now play 206 Malmo. Zagreb have played 4 leagues game and are 4-0 outscoring opponents 11-0..they are consistent European club and with a group stage at stake they will definitely want a 2+ goal lead heading into the 2nd leg. Perhaps allowing history to play a bigger role in the bet than i should but Zagreb flying high right now and beat a Finnish side last round...Malmo middle of the table right now swedish team with a tendency to draw on the road...a stratedgy like that vs Zagreb might not be a wise play. 2-0 zagreb...3 or 4-0 on a great night.

i think munchen -2 is a bit high ... not the way they have started. I think they win by 2 and void bet so no play. Yesterday i liked all home teams - today i like all visitors (minus Malmo)..but just 1 one CL game.

England Championship
Cardiff C. v Brighton & Hove A
Cardiff -110 - 1.10 to win 1 unit
i am certain odds are such because it is a midweek clash and strange things can happen. Yes Brighton have started their Championship campaign nicely but are still a newly promoted side. Will Buckley who scored both goals in a 2-1 doncaster win will be missing for Brighton...Cardiff traveled to West Ham and won and beat Bristol City 3-1 last round. Perhaps a little reality check for the newly promoted side and a 3-0 4-0 home win...odds certainly don't reflect it and Brighton are solid and its midweek...hmmm....i still like the home side though.

Blackpool v Derby County
Blackpool -0.5, -1 -108 -1.08 to win 1 unit
really couldn't decide between blackpool or millwall for a 3rd pick and might end up taking both by kickoff. Blackpool a perfect 2-0 to start the year including an impressive road win vs Hull and a 2-0 win vs p'boro. Derby also 2-0 with nice wins vs Watford and Birminham - but have been near the bottom the last few seasons since their relegation for the EPL a few years back. Blackpool with Kevin Phillips and Gary Taylor-Fletcher have certainly made it clear they plan a return to the EPL and should be very solid at home...i still have doubts over Derby and perhaps, much like Brighton, will get a slight reality check today.

funny i am not taking p'boro over but i am waiting to see if they are a great Championship over like they were in league one last season. So far 2-0 (3-0 including a cup game) on the overs and millwall have scored twice in both game this year so perhaps an over but i'm not convinced enough to put money on it.

 

[DialSquares]

Record: 22-21-4 +0.68 units
Friday August 19th
Germany Bundesliga II
Greuther Fürth v FC Ingolstadt
SpVgg Greuther Fürth -0.5, -1 -118 -1.18 to win 1 unit
seems like the most obvious pick of the day but it will still be a tough game for Furth. Ingolstadt will no doubt sit back as much as they can and work for 0-0 type game and Furth at times won't really pressure defense like that. But Furth have started the season very well and i don't think will slip up against, imo (and a lot of people) the #1 relegation candidate. Furth at home 1-1 losing week one to E. Frankfurt and beating Dresden 1-0. Ingolstadt 0-2 losing 4-1 to Dusseldorf and 2-0 to St Pauli. Furth can shut down teams like Ingolstadt so to me the only real question is can furth score? All signs point to yes and a 1-0 home win....perhaps we can get a classic late second goal for a full winner. I like the under but Ingolstadt can conceed 3+ goals on their own at any moment.

Fortuna Düsseldorf v TSV 1860 München
over 2.5 goals -109 - 1.09 to win 1 unit
this is a tough one and probably no bet is the right move - if you like the over you really think 1860 will be able to play their own game more than fortuna. And at home it is hard to do that..1860 is 4-0 on overs this year with 3 games 4+ goals. They actually ended last season with 8 overs in 9 matches so you can say they've played 12 overs in their last 13 matches. Dusseldorf is the pinnacle of home teams and usually win with their solid defense . Dusseldorf's last 17 home matches they have conceeded 1 goal or less - in fact the last home game where they conceeded at last 2 goals was a 1-2 home lost to 1860. Just about a 50-50 pick imo and i usually avoid those....hopefully an early 1860 goals to open the game up.

i know Aachen are better than the record and maybe a road game vs a promotion side can lift the pressure but until they start winning i just can't back them...but i won't bet against them either because they are a bit desperate. Both to score pays -125 which is mighty tempting but not enough to bet.

 

[DialSquares]

well i didn't think i'd be backing wolfsburg anytime soon but i think they can bounce back after an unfortunate lost to Munchen last round. M'gladbach not a very good team at home nor any place and barely escaped relegation last season. Impressive road win vs Koln already for Wolfs. M'gladbach have drawn Stuttgart and beat Bayern Munich so no doubt they will be full of confidence...2-0 in German II so i feel money to be spent win or lose but Wolfsburgh really should win here...money back on a draw
German Bundesliga I
Borussia Mönchengladbach v VfL Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg 0 -118 - 1.18 to win 1 unit
GL

 

[DialSquares]

Sunday August 20th
German Bundesliga II
German Bundesliga II
Cottbus v Karlsruhe
over 3 goals +100 - 1.00 to win 1 unit
i am not sure we will get another 5-5 thriller like last year but good chance for at least 3 goals if not 4-5. Both teams have 3 overs in 4 matches this season and hit at least 65% overs last year. Both unders were 2-0 wins by both clubs and both on the road (for what that is worth). Karlsruhe hit 12 overs in 17 road matches last year and Cottbus 10 overs in 17 home games. Last year's game was quite enjoyable...Karlsruhe lead 5-2 in the 67th min and cottbus stormed back to tie it. One of the matches of the year and here's hoping for a game half as exciting...3-2 2-3....both clubs don't draw all that much (at least last year) and no draws in 4 matches thus year. Both to score pays a -188 and it really should hit fairly easily i think...the lack of draws and the last 2 h2h with 6+ goals (not to mention the over friendly nature of clubs) leads me to think this has a great chance at going over.

i just can't read the frankfurt game - i think e. frankfurt but hard to bet games like this and i like dresden to win but not enough to bet.

so 1 bet for the early morning but perhaps more to come

GL

 

[DialSquares]

as usually no write up saturday
Saturday August 27th
England Championship
Brighton & Hove Albion v Peterborough United
over 3 goals -106 -1.06 to win 1 unit

Ipswich Town v Leeds United
Leeds Draw No Bet aka pick -110 -1.10 to win 1 unit

English Premier League
Swansea v Sunderland
Swansea Team Goals 1 and 1.5 +100 - 1.00 to win 1 unit
i'm not sure books offer this outside of pinnacle...perhaps team total +1.5 for swansea would be worth the gamble. Swansea yet to score and i didn't watch the wigan game but they can actually generate offense and good ball movement. Perhaps Sunderland that gave up goals in both their games is exactly what swansea needs. I fancy a home side finally showing their EPL ability and a smooth 3-0 2-1 game even if the odds or perhaps reality says...i would bet the over 2.25 if the bet isn't available but only needing 1 goal for 1/2 a loser looks good to me.

looking into germany now but we will see....

GL

 

[DialSquares]

German Bundesliga I
Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köl
Hamburger SV -125 - 1.25 to win 1 unit
i think hamburger have been unlucky to start the year - tough draw vs Hertha conceeding late - tough schedule and lots of injuries. Perhaps until players get back and they prove they can win it is wise to lay off...but koln not very good at the moment and hamburg have won the last two fixtures 6-2 and 3-1..confidence must be low at HSV but perhaps not so low vs Koln....nice odds for the home win anyway

FC Nürnberg v FC Augsburg
under 2.5 goals -105 - 1.05 to win 1 unit

 

[Ilovetobet]

bol

 

[DialSquares]

thanks ilovetobet....1-4 day in the end. Both Leeds and HSV blew leads in the last 15 mins of the game....1-0 leeds in the 77th and 3-2 HSV in the 84th and both lost outright...and P'boro/Brighton no goals in the last 25 mins. The worst might have been Swansea not scoring with those easy headers and woodwork in the 1st half. All around it wasn't meant to be my day I guess...i've been doing this long enough to know these things happen and hopefully get it back quickly...

good luck but i'm done for the day - i'd hate to see what can happen next.

 

[DialSquares]

Sunday August 27th
terrible saturday for me....a couple of teams blew leads late but it happens...i am betting early german soccer and see how it goes..but maybe not my weekend so who knows

German Bundesliga II
1860 München v 1. FC Union Berlin
over 2.75 - 103 - 1.03 to win 1 unit
h2h hasn't yield overs but hard to ignore the start for both clubs as far as overs. 1860 a perfect 5-0 on overs and union 4 overs in 5 matches. I like 1860 to win it but at odds around -143 it has little value. 2-1 seems like a likely score but a good shot at 4+ goals imo.

Eintracht Braunschweig v FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli Draw No Bet aka pick +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit
a bit surprised at these odds despite Pauli being on the road. E. Frankfurt managed a 3-0 road win vs braunschweig and pauli managed a 1-1 draw vs e frankfurt...of course if betting was that easy we'd all be rich. But Pauli drew E. Frankfurt and beat a tough (or not so tough) Bochum. They appear to be a serious candidate for promotion and although Braunschweig have played good football i wonder how they will stake vs the top clubs this year. Tough call and i like money back on a draw but at above even odds for St Pauli seems too high to skip.

I think Eintracht Frankfurt win easy enough but i just hate taken -1.5 lines in german II ... in any case paderborn is playing well enough to think they can steal a point here. In the end i don't think so and a 2-0 3-0 home win but not enough to bet.

EPL
Tottenham v Man City
Tottenham Draw No Bet 2.20 - 0.80 to win 1 unit
to me citeh haven't done anything to warrant being favoured on the road vs spurs. So far they beat Bolton and Swansea and although feature a number of impressive players it is hard to know if they are playing well together..add the fact they might feature yet another player they couldn't bring up through their system and had to outright buy his cheap ass aka Nasri who knows how they will gel. Tottenham looked bad vs United and played midweek but they must have already been looking forward to this one as they were up 5-0 from the first leg and a trip to Scotland isnt all that much to recover from. City haven't won at White Hart lane in 8 tries losing 6 and drawing 2....of course some will say they haven't been this stacked but i think they still need time to gel and perhaps the spurs are the team to knock their EPL dreams down a bit. I know most of those jackasses have played together but not all of them...and not with that bum nasri pretending his a top midfielder. Ultimately City wins the EPL imho...and it will be a sad day in english football...but chelsea did it and now Citeh. GROW YOUR OWN F(*(*ING PLAYERS!!!!!...okay rant aside 2-1 spurs win and players start to bitch about playing time in no time,

GL - a gunner fan cheering for Tottenham...i never thought i'd see the day.

 

[DialSquares]

well that is my last epl bet ... this league has become as useless as the scottish premier league or La Liga...

i'm sticking to the german game where even though teams spend they don't overpay 5-6-7-8 players to win championships. 1-2 manchester teams and the rest just fodder....waste of my time. I think it is time for that super league in europe and let real, barca, man city, man u, inter and chelsea compete to see who can outspend who and win...complete waste of my day today....i feel sick

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

damn you are one bitter gunner fan....huh?....3 games into the season and you are giving up....every team in the EPL has players not from the youth academy...surely your team has many non youth academy players no? your 3 strikers come to mind right off the bat...

 

[DialSquares]

slight difference i think is the amount we pay for players is actual market value and not overpriced...we paid something like 2.5 million pounds for RVP, 9 milion for walcott, and nothing for Chamakh. I don't blame the Manchesters for the overblown price and who knows what RVP would get today... but teams are stealing players off other clubs in the same league simply by offering far too much value. I think there has been 4 gunners leave for city in the last 3 years.... Nasri had a good game but he is no where near 25 million pounds....Arsenal is imho the perfect example on how top clubs should handle themselves...support their youth players, buy players to improve the squad at reasonable price and support their manager through the good and bad...unfortunately that means you just cannot compete anymore with the teams willing to spend over the top. Perhaps i'm bitter that my team won't play ball like that but mostly I'm bitter that this fake financial fair play law exists when it is meaningless if the top clubs don't follow it.....

maybe it is an 8-2 reaction..the day after Mata scored...

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

"Arsenal is imho the perfect example on how top clubs should handle themselves."...of course you do, your a big fan of them....it's not like city took nasri for a few quid...if arsenal are a team of magnitude and to be reckoned with...then re-invest the new found $ you've been given..that being said....i have no love lost for anything arsene wegner has to do with and 8 goals against was pathetic.....i'd be bitter and pissed as well...cheers

 

[DialSquares]

looks like we are finally making some moves finally....perhaps some wigan fan is reading my mini-rant and thinking wtf is he talking about? haha...I still think there might be the need for a salary cap type system if 1-2 teams is just going pay outrageous funds for medium class players like Silva, Nasri, Mata and Ashley Young. 7 million seems a lot to me for Andre Santos as well...maybe i'm still stuck in 2003-04

 

[DialSquares]

record should be updated eventually...real life gets in the way of sports betting once in awhile...

Sweden Allsvenskan
Halmstads BK v Gefle IF
Gefle Draw No Bet aka pick +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit

Elfsborg v GAIS
IF Elfsborg -1 -111 - 1.11 to win 1 unit

Örebro SK v AIK
over 2, 2.5 goals -102 - 1.02 to win 1 unit

i do think rosenberg will cover the -1AH but i hate taking road teams to win by 2+. As for the EPL game who knows...Newcastle isn't as good as their start but QPR yet to really impress...tough bet imo and no play is best.

Maybe the German II game if i like something....

 

[DialSquares]

Champions League
Chelsea v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Chelsea -1 -103 - 1.03 to win 1 unit
despite levenkausen being my cursed team i don't really understand the odds dropping to give as nice odds at the -1. Chelsea is still one of the premier world clubs and so far in the EPL have shown they will compete with the top clubs. Wins vs Sunderland and WBA might not be unexpected but nonetheless they were impressive...although there is talk of resting players for the weekend they'll still field a solid lineup. Bayer also started the domestic season off well but struggle in England with only 1 win in 15 tries and lost 5 of their last 6 in england. Chelsea vs German sides in the last 5 - 4 wins and 1 draw. Lack of CL play for Leverkusen might be their ultimate downfall and Chelsea are usually European home studs...had it been full squad i'd say hammer Chelski but normal bet on the handicap and accept a push chance works for me.

FC Porto v Shakhtar Donetsk
Donetsk Team Total over -0.5, -1.0 -107 - 1.07 to win 1 unit
i do like the over 2.5 but shankhtar needing one goal at those odds seems to be a must take for me. Donetsk isn't afraid of any team in Europe and have 3 players that could score for and against anyone. Last season they managed goals on the road vs Barcelona, Roma, Arsenal and 3 vs Portuguese side Braga. In the domestic front, Shakhtar 24 goals in 9 matches and managed a road goal against decent Ukraine club Arsenal Kiev. Porto will no doubt be a tough challenge for Shakhtar but they can be scored on as they were in the Europa last season...i do question Porto's defence and guys like Luiz Adriano, Fernandinho and Jadson should be far too quick for them...i do fancy a road win or draw but at least 1 goal for the visitors.

England League One
Tranmere R. v Carlisle U
Carlisle Draw No Bet +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit

i do promise an updated record soon...my numbers didn't add up so i have to start over and just no time for that right now...sorry about that - i care more about a person's record than anything

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

sweet as on the shakhtar wager

 

[DialSquares]

thanks cocktailsnlongshots...chelsea took a little longer than i liked to score the 2nd but finally a good day for me. Too bad Dortmund scored late but a 1-1 is a nice result for the gunners.

Champions League
Basel v Otelul Galati
Basel -1 +110 -1.10 to win 1 unit
i think the odds will drop a bunch by the morning so taking this one early...anything but a swiss home win would be quite shocking. Maybe this pushes but i am thinking 3-0 or more for the home side. Basel is one of the euro teams you can really count on and are playing against a team new to the CL stage. On top of that Otelul with just 2 win in 6 domestic games and are coming off a 4-0 road defeat vs Cluj.. Basel didn't start off great but are coming off 2 straight wins. Basel 1-0 win vs Romanian side Cluj in the group stages last year

Some teams in the group stages play the whippin' boy (zilina, partizan and burarspor last year) and with Basel believing they can advance past the group stages with Man Utd this really is a must win and win by a few.

other than the fact i am certain this will be a popular pick i just cannot see Basel drawing/losing....3-0 FT is my best guess....

GL..more to come tomorrow...

 

[DialSquares]

adds:
Ajax v Olympique Lyonnais
over 2.5 goals -107 - 1.07 to win 1 unit
i didnt like yesterday french road over but great chance today. Ajax played French side Auxerre in the Group Stage last year and won 2-1 at home. So far in the Eredivisie 4 wins 1 Draw scores 3-2, 4-1, 2-2, 5-1 and 1-4. Safe to say they are in form goalwise even though it is in the high scoring Dutch league. Lyon 3 overs in 5 French I games with two 1-1 draws sandwiched between their games vs Kazan in the CL qualifiers. In the CL group stage last year Lyon played all 3 road games over (3-0 lost to Madrid, 4-3 lost to Benfica, and 3-1 win vs Hapoel.) With both clubs thinking 2nd place (or even 1st) is up for grabs both teams will be going for the win and with the offense clicking could lead to plenty of goals. I think Ajax will win based on form and being at home but it will be very hard to keep lyon off the board...classic 2-1 1-2 game here with a chance of 4-5 goals on a good day.

Lille v CSKA Moscow
Over 2, 2.5 goals -126 -1.26 to win 1 unit
i would not hesitate to bet the over 2.5 either but covering a bit for a 1-1 draw. Lille 3 straight overs in french I including a 3-2 win vs Marseille. CSKA with 3 straight overs in Russia. CSKA were actually 11 overs in 11 games at the 1.5 line...so thats all 11 with at least 2 goals. Much like the Lyon game both clubs will think 2nd place is up for grabs and although i expect a much tighter game then the Lyon one I think there is a goal chance here..at least 2. Lille to win has jumped to a non-value bet imho but i like them to win 3-1 2-1....with the return fixture in late November Lille will not want to have to travel to Russia and need a win so i think they take care of CSKA at home today.

I am tempted to back both United and Munich at near evens and hope for both and settle for 1 but it is always very tough to win on the road in Europe and the Iberian teams seem to be stepping it up in Europe over the last few years (and why would you ever want United to win???)

GL -

 

[DialSquares]

German Bundesliga II
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hansa Rostock
Eintracht Frankfurt -1 -106 - 1.06 to win 1 unit
i'd like to thank the people that brought the line down so the AH-1 is near evens. Line movement in the wrong direction is usually something i avoid but not today. E. Frankfurt yet to win at home but played St Pauli, Dusseldorf and Paderborn...3 tough teams to beat and only Paderborn have lost in 7 games. So 3 draws in 3 home games not so bad. Hansas 0-2-1 on the road losing to terrible ingolstadt and managing draws vs Duisburg and Dresden. The draw tendency to start the season for both clubs worries me a bit but i do think E. Frankfurt is a full league ahead of them in quality and far too strong to go another home game without a win. Frankfurt beat another promotion side Braunschweig 3-0 on the road and they have started this year much much better than Rostock. I think a cakewalk of sorts but even a hard fought 2-1 1-0 game wouldn't surprise...perhaps we push but i like a home win.

FC Erzgebirge Aue v Fortuna Düsseldorf
over 2.25 goals -114 - 1.14 to win 1 unit
once in awhile i get suckered by the odds because all signs point to an under. Aue and Dusseldorf both 3 unders in 3 home/away games...Aue with just 1 over (2.5 goals) in 7 matches. The numbers look much better at the over 1.5 line but even H2H last two games ended 1-0 0-1..line really should favour the under but doesn't so as i said once in awhile i take it as bet the OVER....even if i disagree with myself. (good one to skip i think)

FC Ingolstadt 04 v Dynamo Dresden
Both To Score: YES -137 - 1.37 to win 1 unit
i know this isn't available to most USA players and perhaps betting both over and a draw might work out but both to score is the best play. Ingolstadt is pretty bad but they seem to manage a goal or more esp at home - 0-0 to Aue this year though. They did beat another promotion side Rostock 3-1 and reason enough not to back Dresden on the +0.25 line. Dresen have only 1 road goal in 3 games but failing to score vs Duisburg and Furth is understandable. Today they are playing a team that hasn't figured out the defense part of the game for a long team....and Dresden have scored 9 goals in 7 matches. Ultimately I see a 1-1 draw but either side can definitely win this one so 1-2 2-1 is a possibility..so over if you must but both to score for me.

Considering Austria II but i don't like betting more than 3 games at a time