EURO 2012 Record:
Knockout Rounds: 0-1-1 -1.05 units
Group Stage: 11-9-3 +1.98 units
Overall: 11-10-4 +0.93 units
Sunday June 24th
England v Italy
England to qualify -110 - 1.10 to win 1 unit
the extra time/penalties appears to be a real possibility here so taking england in 90 mins (some guys call it ml) is dangerous. I guess if the qualify bet isn't available england pk is okay...at least it would push if Italy wins it in extras or penalties. Seems a lot of people are backing the draw today which i understand but draws are still very hard to get and at +188ish hard to believe that has a ton of value.
I might be on England because I hate Italian football...simple as that. I can usually talk my way out of bets based on emotion but I really do like England here. There is a lot of talk about how poor England is suppose to be but England have 1 loss in 15 matches - friendly loss to the Netherlands (stoppage time winner). Wins include against Spain, Norway, Denmark, 2 vs Sweden and the Ukraine. I understand they have injuries but for me in international play there are always replacements available. And certainly in the round robin England drew to France without Rooney and beat both Sweden and the Ukraine to win the group. They are proving to be very tough in defense and for me Italy has 2 players capable of scoring - Super Mario and Di Natale (De Rossi on free kicks too). But this English defense, imo, can control 1-2 players and Cole/Johnson should manage the sides quite well today. I do wish Walcott would start but he does get subbed quickly in the 2nd half so have a real impact if needed. Rooney goal was a gift so i wouldn't say he is match ready but having ran out one full match he should be much better today and the physcial strenght on the front line could be a major factor. Portuguese ref might be influence by the several dives we are about to witness from the italians and could make the difference for the Azzurri esp. for penalities and free kicks near the box.
Super Mario is one yellow away from missing the semi's and he really can't play his style if he has to worry about it - so perhaps a more tamed Balotelli will be less effective. Of course it could the other way where a yellow card Mario turns into the selfish noob and get a red card 5 mins later. In any case, Italy has been rather poor since the WC. Certainly drawing Spain was a good EURO result but they failed to impress in the Irish match, blew the lead vs Croatia and lost 3 of the 4 friendlies prior to the tournament - including a loss to the USA <--really? It was a very weak qualifying group for Italy and probably a good reason they actually made this tournament.
Personally i think England defense is much better - the midfield is certainly better (esp with Walcott) and Rooney/Walback combo is still a decent threat to score every game. Italy is counting of guys like Cassano that haven't done much and unreliable people like Mario and Pirlo. I think England wins in the 90 but perhaps extra time...if it comes to penalities England might be in trouble though.
GL - if you like Italy don't let me talk you out of it because certainly my hatred of all things Italy football could effect the play today.