CW...PofH...Eragon...

[HuskerFan1]

8:30PM USUAL MEGAPLEX Update. ERAGN is not breaking 30. PRHAP is now #1 for the day and a definite long (go figure that out!)-...

Thank you very much! I'm hoping for PRHAP to go over 18 mil.
It will undoubtedly now go over 20. -- NF nm
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thats from the man...wow...

thats all that needs to be said i guess....

word to the wise(aside from the PofH update from him)...this is 1 ONE theatre in the country...but it can be extrapolated out (sp? had a few too many beers so dont hold it against me).....


see how the friday estimates play out....

 

[Bennyshoe]

8:30PM USUAL MEGAPLEX Update. ERAGN is not breaking 30. PRHAP is now #1 for the day and a definite long (go figure that out!)-...

Thank you very much! I'm hoping for PRHAP to go over 18 mil.
It will undoubtedly now go over 20. -- NF nm
___________________________________________________________

thats from the man...wow...

thats all that needs to be said i guess....

word to the wise(aside from the PofH update from him)...this is 1 ONE theatre in the country...but it can be extrapolated out (sp? had a few too many beers so dont hold it against me).....


see how the friday estimates play out....

That's the guy where I got those numbers from my post.

Glad to hear it's great news for PRHAP for myself.

 

[HuskerFan1]

well if this is even ballpark...there is only 1 movie left to be decided...eragon...and that will depend on its IM...9M from PofH is just sick....

from DHD....

FRIDAY PM: I'm told Sony's The Pursuit Of Happyness, even playing in less theaters than the competition, pit Will Smith against a dragon and spider and won No. 1 with big box office Friday of $9+ million. Also strong was the Harry Potter clone Eragon which took 2nd place with just under $9 million. Charlotte's Web, the Babe lookalike, was #3. Sony's The Holiday was fourth, holdover Warner's Happy Feet stayed strong at fifth, and Mel Gibson's Apocalypto, distributed by Disney, fell to sixth. Fox's Eragon had been tracking strong with boys, and Paramount's Web strong with girls, while Sony's Forrest Gump feel-good flick looked to draw both sexes and all ages because of subject matter and starrer. Web won the theater count -- 3,566 compared to Eragon's 3,020 and Pursuit's 2,852. Looks great for predictions that Pursuit and Eragon will finish the weekend with $20+ million, and Web in high teens.

 

[HPark1]

dhd's numbers can be shaky but overall it seems in the right area. Pursuit looks like it will cruise past 20 while Charlotte is going to labour to hit 20.

If Eragon is under 9 million I don't see it getting to 22 million.

 

[HuskerFan1]

eragons # will be interesting bc we dont know if that friday # from dhd is including the midnights or not....they estimated those at 400K or so...hopefully it will come in over 9m on friday with the midnights...at least thats what im hoping for...

the only thing eragon has going for it is its not a thriller/horror type movie like saw3....its pg rating might help it holdoff a sunday bloodbath....

but ya i sorta agree with ya if it comes in south of 9...it might have a hard time cracking the 22 we need....

this movie is like a repeat of saw3...except different genre...great midnights...fanboys rush out to see it opening night...think things are going great and then it conks out right around the finish line....


like i said in an earlier post, the only thing that stopped me from unloading on that stupid movie was the bad reveiws...and now its a race to 22 against those bad reviews...

 

[HPark1]

Well looks like the guesses were pretty accurate and Eragon is the only movie still pending.

Pursuit on pace for mid to high 20's and Charlotte looks extremely unlikely to hit 20.

 

[Bennyshoe]

Ouch CWEB only did 3.4 mil. What a bust in terms of expectations. Even with all the A list stars to do the voices, it still didn't help.

I hardly saw any advertisements, or commercials for this movie. Unlike Pursuit which was on every channel and every magazine I saw.

 

[Bennyshoe]

From Showbizdata.com

http://www.showbizdata.com/dailybox.cfm

1. PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS 9,200,000
2. ERAGON 8,646,000
3. CHARLOTTE'S WEB 3,430,000

 

[Utah]

Ouch CWEB only did 3.4 mil. What a bust in terms of expectations. Even with all the A list stars to do the voices, it still didn't help.

I hardly saw any advertisements, or commercials for this movie. Unlike Pursuit which was on every channel and every magazine I saw.

This seemed like such an obvious and easy under and I am not sure why people thought it would do well. As I stated in an earlier post, this thing has the potential to bomb and to bomb big. This was one of the easiest picks in awhile.

 

[HuskerFan1]

eragon will be interesting...i personally have doubts it can get to 22million..we will know for certain tomorrow based on todays #s....if it did 8.6 on friday....it was really 8.2 bc of the midnights...i think it has to pull 7.9 on saturday which would be a SLIGHT decrease d2d(-midnights)....then it could fall off 30% on sunday and just break 22m....we will see just how much of an opening day rushout it had and how the poor reviews effect it on saturday...

i am making money this weekend no matter what but this eragon is a decent swing for me bc its a +.75unit if it hits or a -1unit if it loses...

i gave back 1.5units on the 2middles which have no chance 1on PohH and .5 on cweb...rats....

as it stands gonna pick net 1.3 on pofh and .5 on cweb with eragon pending...

hopefully it can hang tough today....

 

[Bennyshoe]

This seemed like such an obvious and easy under and I am not sure why people thought it would do well. As I stated in an earlier post, this thing has the potential to bomb and to bomb big. This was one of the easiest picks in awhile.

My instinct was under but I just didn't know if kids would respond to it. I'm not a kid and I don't have family so I wasn't sure. But I didn't hear about the movie much.

I did feel Pursuit would do over 18 just from having Will Smith in it and the true story behind it.

 

[llabb]

eragon will be interesting...i personally have doubts it can get to 22million..we will know for certain tomorrow based on todays #s....if it did 8.6 on friday....it was really 8.2 bc of the midnights...i think it has to pull 7.9 on saturday which would be a SLIGHT decrease d2d(-midnights)....then it could fall off 30% on sunday and just break 22m....we will see just how much of an opening day rushout it had and how the poor reviews effect it on saturday...

i am making money this weekend no matter what but this eragon is a decent swing for me bc its a +.75unit if it hits or a -1unit if it loses...

i gave back 1.5units on the 2middles which have no chance 1on PohH and .5 on cweb...rats....

as it stands gonna pick net 1.3 on pofh and .5 on cweb with eragon pending...

hopefully it can hang tough today....

Yeah, the Eragon outcome is uncertain now, although still more likely to be an Over. The middle has a decent shot at hitting, though, which would be fantastic! I love middles! I'm sure we all do. Hmmm...perhaps we could think about buying and selling middles, among ourselves. For both those who have them, and those who don't.

Earlier today, I was willing to buy the Pursuit of Happyness middle, and I even said I would trade some of the Eragon middle for it, straight up. Bet some of you wish you took me up on that now! Husker, you could have sold me some of your (losing) Pursuit of Happyness middle for a (possibly winning) Eragon 22-23 middle!

This would be a fun thing to do, and sometimes, a really helpful thing, to get liquidity on here, and help us balance our positions, post-closing time at the books. Or even during the week, if the line changes, but you need still to alter your position at the old line. If anyone's interested in ever thinking about doing this stuff in the future, please let me know, and please post. This could be a great benefit to us all.

For this weekend, at least, you could have had a great shot at a low-risk chance for a $500 middle I was offering.

 

[HuskerFan1]

hindsight is always 20/20 my friend

it might not matter at this point bc eragon held up nicely on saturday...pulling in 8.5...its over 17m thru 2 days...it shouldnt have any problems clearing 22m now....

looks like a 3-0 week here...gave some what woulda been profits back on the middle attempts but over the longrun i believe you make more playing them bc these can be broken down so accurately on some movies where you know its gonna land around the estimates...

next week should be interesting some good movies opening up...

 

[HPark1]

Eragon looks like it will creep over but I think a 22.5 estimate is more appropriate than 23.5. This should drop close to 40% today.

Narnia dropped 32% and that movie was given rave reviews. It wouldn't really shock me if it dropped below 22.