some good posts...i dont understand why the line is favoring the under myself...
the one thing about the above post is doolittle clearly picks up the average of the group with its 10.5k pta...the other thing is all those movies other than SL opened in other months other than december...throw out the 2 stinkers in dreamer and win dixie and SL is left having the lowest PTA bc of what i believe has to do with its release date...same as this weeks CWEB (both released the week before XMAS) it doesnt have, no does it need the rush out and see it OW bc its monday/tuesday/wed/thurs #s next week will all be VERY strong when ALL schools are on break...thats my reasoning/hope this one stays UN25M
i think the case has clearly been stated as to why betting over22M on CWEB is a solid play....and i agree with them....
this movie screams middle IMO...
the one thing about the above post is doolittle clearly picks up the average of the group with its 10.5k pta...the other thing is all those movies other than SL opened in other months other than december...throw out the 2 stinkers in dreamer and win dixie and SL is left having the lowest PTA bc of what i believe has to do with its release date...same as this weeks CWEB (both released the week before XMAS) it doesnt have, no does it need the rush out and see it OW bc its monday/tuesday/wed/thurs #s next week will all be VERY strong when ALL schools are on break...thats my reasoning/hope this one stays UN25M
i think the case has clearly been stated as to why betting over22M on CWEB is a solid play....and i agree with them....
this movie screams middle IMO...
Right now I have decent-sized Overs on all the movies. Have just as strong reasons for the other 2, but am tired and don't have time for big write-ups.
Sufficient to say that Happyness is tracking well, Will Smith is a huge draw, and his past movies have been huge. Even if you discount all the blockbusters as not very good comps, Ali was an Over with an 8.2k PTA and $20.2 3-day opening, even though it was an R-rated film with less appeal. Happyness is a bigger draw imo, and even at that PTA would be a $23.5 mil opening. It only needs a 6.3k PTA to hit the line.
Eragon advance sales are going gangbusters. For similar films, no one's looking for Narnia comps, as it would go Over even at 40% of Narnia. But even laughable films such as Reign of Fire had an inflation-adjusted 7.1k PTA, or Dragonheart with a 10.4k PTA. Eragon has the bestselling book fanbase draw, and only needs a 7.3k PTA.
So yeah, pretty happy with Overs on all three movies, at lines of 22, 22, and 18. 3* plays on each.
Sufficient to say that Happyness is tracking well, Will Smith is a huge draw, and his past movies have been huge. Even if you discount all the blockbusters as not very good comps, Ali was an Over with an 8.2k PTA and $20.2 3-day opening, even though it was an R-rated film with less appeal. Happyness is a bigger draw imo, and even at that PTA would be a $23.5 mil opening. It only needs a 6.3k PTA to hit the line.
Eragon advance sales are going gangbusters. For similar films, no one's looking for Narnia comps, as it would go Over even at 40% of Narnia. But even laughable films such as Reign of Fire had an inflation-adjusted 7.1k PTA, or Dragonheart with a 10.4k PTA. Eragon has the bestselling book fanbase draw, and only needs a 7.3k PTA.
So yeah, pretty happy with Overs on all three movies, at lines of 22, 22, and 18. 3* plays on each.
midnights are out...did little better than KK...half of narnia...
didnt go crazy just rebought back my 1/2unit bet on over Eragon at pinny 22M -101
got enough tied up on these now...lets see how they play out
if i didnt have to work id probably load up on the over and buy it back....later on....someone tell me what the line goes off at...once everyone wakes up pinny will get pounded.....
didnt go crazy just rebought back my 1/2unit bet on over Eragon at pinny 22M -101
got enough tied up on these now...lets see how they play out
if i didnt have to work id probably load up on the over and buy it back....later on....someone tell me what the line goes off at...once everyone wakes up pinny will get pounded.....
Wrote up a little more on Happyness:
Will Smith is an enormous box office draw, who has carried many blockbusters for PTA's in the high teens. The Pursuit of Happyness just needs a ridiculously low 6.3k PTA to hit the line. The summer blockbusters were obviously way higher, but aren't comparable.
Enemy of the State was one of the first Will Smith solo vehicles, and was a November action drama. Got an 8.4k PTA, 11.5k inflation-adjusted.
Ali was an R-rated adult-audience film, so some similar demographics, although Happyness targets females more, is PG-13 friendly, and should be a bigger general draw. Ali had an 8.2k 1st 3-day opening, 10.0k PTA inflation-adjusted.
Even relative dud The Legend of Bagger Vance, which was not a Will Smith solo vehicle nor very interesting looking, had a 5.6k PTA, 7.1k inflation-adjusted.
Hitch was a rom-com, which would draw more interest than an adult drama like Happyness, but shows what a PG-13 Will Smith vehicle with female interest can do, at a 12.1k PTA, 13.1 inflation-adjusted.
So given all of this, I'm looking for something more in line with Ali's figures, perhaps an 8-10k PTA for an opening in the mid-$20's. The Bagger Vance inflation-adjusted 7k PTA should be a floor, which means I see this doing at least in the 20's, which is in line with late tracking that indicated 20+.
Also, Oprah has been pimping this movie a lot, and she has an enormous influence on what a lot of females read and watch. She made some huge pushes for a couple movies last year, and some give her a bit of credit for helping Crash win Best Picture in a huge upset last year. That aside, this should help spike female interest in a movie that should appeal to them already.
Quite comfortable with my Over 18 plays, as well as some at Over 19 at better odds.
Will Smith is an enormous box office draw, who has carried many blockbusters for PTA's in the high teens. The Pursuit of Happyness just needs a ridiculously low 6.3k PTA to hit the line. The summer blockbusters were obviously way higher, but aren't comparable.
Enemy of the State was one of the first Will Smith solo vehicles, and was a November action drama. Got an 8.4k PTA, 11.5k inflation-adjusted.
Ali was an R-rated adult-audience film, so some similar demographics, although Happyness targets females more, is PG-13 friendly, and should be a bigger general draw. Ali had an 8.2k 1st 3-day opening, 10.0k PTA inflation-adjusted.
Even relative dud The Legend of Bagger Vance, which was not a Will Smith solo vehicle nor very interesting looking, had a 5.6k PTA, 7.1k inflation-adjusted.
Hitch was a rom-com, which would draw more interest than an adult drama like Happyness, but shows what a PG-13 Will Smith vehicle with female interest can do, at a 12.1k PTA, 13.1 inflation-adjusted.
So given all of this, I'm looking for something more in line with Ali's figures, perhaps an 8-10k PTA for an opening in the mid-$20's. The Bagger Vance inflation-adjusted 7k PTA should be a floor, which means I see this doing at least in the 20's, which is in line with late tracking that indicated 20+.
Also, Oprah has been pimping this movie a lot, and she has an enormous influence on what a lot of females read and watch. She made some huge pushes for a couple movies last year, and some give her a bit of credit for helping Crash win Best Picture in a huge upset last year. That aside, this should help spike female interest in a movie that should appeal to them already.
Quite comfortable with my Over 18 plays, as well as some at Over 19 at better odds.
like OVER for Charlotte's web
just realized Curious George would have made 20+ million with the same theater count Charlotte's Web has... but Web has a much bigger "see opening weekend" % of 10.2% compared to George' 4%.
I like the over for Web now as well. 500,000+ kids read the book outload last week and broke a world record. All of them will have to see the movie, and tack on their parents. I like Web for about 24 - 26 million.
my plays:
Pinny 23 million Over +180 (big)
Intertops:
22 million to 26 million +135 (big) 26 million or more +250 (small)
just realized Curious George would have made 20+ million with the same theater count Charlotte's Web has... but Web has a much bigger "see opening weekend" % of 10.2% compared to George' 4%.
I like the over for Web now as well. 500,000+ kids read the book outload last week and broke a world record. All of them will have to see the movie, and tack on their parents. I like Web for about 24 - 26 million.
my plays:
Pinny 23 million Over +180 (big)
Intertops:
22 million to 26 million +135 (big) 26 million or more +250 (small)
Line movements were very strong this morning, closing past -200 for the Eragon Over, Pursuit of Happyness Over, and Charlotte's Web Under. I can see the rationale for the Eragon and Happyness moves, but not the Charlotte one. Perhaps you think it will bomb, and that's fine, we're all just making predictions, but did I miss any news on this one, compared to the positive news that Eragon and Happyness were getting?
Got a little scared as closing approached, though, because the movement was so strong for no apparent reason, so it seemed like some people knew something I didn't. Closing line movements that big have been money lately in movie props, as the sides with odds of -200 or higher have been 5-for-5 lately, and even closing directional plays have been solid, as sides with odds of -150 or higher have won 4-for-7 that I've seen.
So that bodes well for the Eragon and Happyness Overs, and poorly for Charlotte, as it's highly expected to go Under. I went with these closing directions, and took a little more Eragon and Happyness (4* now), and hedged some Charlotte (down to 2* now).
Got a little scared as closing approached, though, because the movement was so strong for no apparent reason, so it seemed like some people knew something I didn't. Closing line movements that big have been money lately in movie props, as the sides with odds of -200 or higher have been 5-for-5 lately, and even closing directional plays have been solid, as sides with odds of -150 or higher have won 4-for-7 that I've seen.
So that bodes well for the Eragon and Happyness Overs, and poorly for Charlotte, as it's highly expected to go Under. I went with these closing directions, and took a little more Eragon and Happyness (4* now), and hedged some Charlotte (down to 2* now).
well going to work cost me money today....scalping that eragon woulda been easier than turning on the computer....
i did add another small 1/4unit play on over eragon 22 before i walked out the door...
i dont understand the CWEB line either...so im with ya on that...this is a good week of movies bc you have the head scratcher in CWEB...the uncertainty of Eragon bc of its mixed reviews...even PofH im not sure thats a given to sail into the 20's...we will have to see....
now the fun part begins...waiting for info...and trying to make sense of it...
fwiw kenspy already predicting 28-30m for eragon this weekend!! lolol
i did add another small 1/4unit play on over eragon 22 before i walked out the door...
i dont understand the CWEB line either...so im with ya on that...this is a good week of movies bc you have the head scratcher in CWEB...the uncertainty of Eragon bc of its mixed reviews...even PofH im not sure thats a given to sail into the 20's...we will have to see....
now the fun part begins...waiting for info...and trying to make sense of it...
fwiw kenspy already predicting 28-30m for eragon this weekend!! lolol
Well, the big midnight sales, online indicators, and online fan reviews are going crazy for Eragon right now. Pointing to a $10M+ Friday and perhaps even in the $ teens, which would easily be a high 20's, low 30's weekend (which is also what one industry worker's guess was, based on midnights).
We'll see if the rest of the day follows the early fanboy surge or not, and my guess is that it doesn't actually end up quite that high, but coming in well over the mid-20's looks really strong right now, making the over 22 a no-brainer.
We'll see if the rest of the day follows the early fanboy surge or not, and my guess is that it doesn't actually end up quite that high, but coming in well over the mid-20's looks really strong right now, making the over 22 a no-brainer.
let me put it to ya this way...IF eragon doesnt do 10million on friday...id start getting worried...i respect kenspys posts and i love getting into the whole estimates (im not sure if these guys bet or not but im guessing most dont but they REALLY get into it...much more so than i would unless i had money on it...but its fun nonetheless) friday afternoon and night and trying to see what they are gonna do judging by nf posts and others but he was DEAD wrong on saw3...and if there is ANY MOVIE thats gonna pull a saw3 (or a grudge2 for that matter)..it would be this one...
we have seen 2 movies recently pull a sub 2.2IM...it can happen...once i went back onboard my mind for friday estimate was instantly 10million or more...
the worst part is...had this movie gotten GREAT reviews....ida gone for my balls on it this morning...if it does end up clearing 22m easily that will be the biggest regret for me this weekend bc we had the real deal info this morning....i went light bc of the mixed reviews...had they been positive ida netellered pinny a dime without blinking....
we have seen 2 movies recently pull a sub 2.2IM...it can happen...once i went back onboard my mind for friday estimate was instantly 10million or more...
the worst part is...had this movie gotten GREAT reviews....ida gone for my balls on it this morning...if it does end up clearing 22m easily that will be the biggest regret for me this weekend bc we had the real deal info this morning....i went light bc of the mixed reviews...had they been positive ida netellered pinny a dime without blinking....
well so far eragon looking very strong...cweb getting its brains mashed in....pofh not clear either way...
i have a strange feeling my whole weekend is gonna be whether or not PofH can get to 17million...
if cweb underperforms on friday it might not matter how strong the saturdaysunday matinees are... it could be too far behind to catch up...
will keep the updates coming.....
i have a strange feeling my whole weekend is gonna be whether or not PofH can get to 17million...
if cweb underperforms on friday it might not matter how strong the saturdaysunday matinees are... it could be too far behind to catch up...
will keep the updates coming.....
Looking at my Happyness figures, it looks like I made a mistake and entered my position wrong, so I messed up the middle. I have a somewhat Polish middle from 18-19, whereas I thought I had evened it out, so that I was simply over 18, and no middle.
So I need to buy the longshot 18-19 middle, at the cost of the other ends, but the WSEX 19 line is down, and the exchanges are at 18. Would anyone want to sell some of their middle, for gain at both ends of the other sides? I assume probably not, but somebody may have a ton of the middle, and be looking for more of a regular position. Or have a lot of the middle, but not much of a position, and want in.
You'd be giving a low-chance event not that likely to hit, and getting a probable definite gain whether it goes Over or Under, outside of the middle range. It could be done on an exchange, so that there's no transfer or trust risk.
So I need to buy the longshot 18-19 middle, at the cost of the other ends, but the WSEX 19 line is down, and the exchanges are at 18. Would anyone want to sell some of their middle, for gain at both ends of the other sides? I assume probably not, but somebody may have a ton of the middle, and be looking for more of a regular position. Or have a lot of the middle, but not much of a position, and want in.
You'd be giving a low-chance event not that likely to hit, and getting a probable definite gain whether it goes Over or Under, outside of the middle range. It could be done on an exchange, so that there's no transfer or trust risk.
Also, if that's not appealing, or too complex, then there is another alternative that's much simpler.
I could swap you middle positions. I have some of the Eragon middle from 22-23, that I could give up to exchange you for the Happyness 18-19 middle.
I'm looking to get $200-$500 of the Happyness 18-19 middle, for either the same amount of the Eragon middle to give you, or to pay you a hard $ figure at whatever odds we agree on. Not looking for the best deal or anything, just to get something reasonable done. Anyone interested?
Does anyone even have this middle (18-19 Happyness)? Not trying to push anyone, just thought it might be interesting and economic to someone on the other side.
I could swap you middle positions. I have some of the Eragon middle from 22-23, that I could give up to exchange you for the Happyness 18-19 middle.
I'm looking to get $200-$500 of the Happyness 18-19 middle, for either the same amount of the Eragon middle to give you, or to pay you a hard $ figure at whatever odds we agree on. Not looking for the best deal or anything, just to get something reasonable done. Anyone interested?
Does anyone even have this middle (18-19 Happyness)? Not trying to push anyone, just thought it might be interesting and economic to someone on the other side.
llabb sorry to hear about your position...my wagers are obviously much smaller than your (i only have little over 700 on these combined this week) so there is nothing i can do...i saw in your post about wsex lines being down...but the "exchanges" having 18M? are these exchanges you can still bet these at??? im curious to know who they are if its true....
PRHAP did well at 3:30 judging by those #'s if its coming on strong it might not matter on your bets...as i would expect it to only do better at night...
hope you dont get burned...
im headed out for the night to the bars...im sure there will be a lot more info when i get home...
PRHAP did well at 3:30 judging by those #'s if its coming on strong it might not matter on your bets...as i would expect it to only do better at night...
hope you dont get burned...
im headed out for the night to the bars...im sure there will be a lot more info when i get home...
From a poster on HSX.com message board
CWEB
419 $3007
349 $2782
ERAGN:
553 $4889.50
409 $3355.00
359 $3053.50
PRHAP:
588 $5048
513 $4503
473 $4031
# of patrons, gross per screen for each film at one of the busiest theatres in the country (not sure where though).
#'s look good for Pursuit. Again CWeb looks like it will underperform.
CWEB
419 $3007
349 $2782
ERAGN:
553 $4889.50
409 $3355.00
359 $3053.50
PRHAP:
588 $5048
513 $4503
473 $4031
# of patrons, gross per screen for each film at one of the busiest theatres in the country (not sure where though).
#'s look good for Pursuit. Again CWeb looks like it will underperform.
