im good at 2.5units...i dont like to go heavy unless i have the concrete info as i like to call it...i think this is enough to take a heavy lean and at 2.5units thats a decent lean for me....and if it loses i dont get burned too badly...
gl this week guys...hopefully this one cashes and we all add a little to the bankroll...
gl this week guys...hopefully this one cashes and we all add a little to the bankroll...
I actually agree with Husker this week on Pursuit, that theatre increase along with screen placement is huge. This movie could sneak away with the win for the weekend. Will be a close weekend if Pursuit breaks out like I believe it will.
Also I am now leaning on overs on CW and Eragon. Eragon is getting more buzz on Yahoo and IMDB. CW has been getting a bunch more TV spots midweek, I saw previews even on MTV at 6PM which was odd. Tomorrow we will get some presale info which will help me choose my final plays on those 2.
-Brendan
Also I am now leaning on overs on CW and Eragon. Eragon is getting more buzz on Yahoo and IMDB. CW has been getting a bunch more TV spots midweek, I saw previews even on MTV at 6PM which was odd. Tomorrow we will get some presale info which will help me choose my final plays on those 2.
-Brendan
well I'm on board with Pursuit, caught a -135ish. Just like Apocalypto last week its almost a mandatory bet when the count gets a big unexpected jump.
As for Eragon I bought back all I could (stuck with some money on over 23) and took a small loss with the juice. Theatre count just 3020, expecting more, and there are enough reviews out there to suggest this is a bad movie. There seems to be no love for this movie at all. Expect a strong Friday (don't care if the presales are great) but a real poor IM.
As for Eragon I bought back all I could (stuck with some money on over 23) and took a small loss with the juice. Theatre count just 3020, expecting more, and there are enough reviews out there to suggest this is a bad movie. There seems to be no love for this movie at all. Expect a strong Friday (don't care if the presales are great) but a real poor IM.
Actually, I think all of the indicators are pretty good, on Eragon. It has a fair amount of online buzz, does well on Internet polls, and has lots of advance sales. This all confirms it's large teen fanbase, which goes to the movies for opening weekend much more than other demos do.
I agree that it looks bad (to me), so most bettors (being older) probably undervalue this movie and don't see the appeal, as the demos are kids and young teens, plus the families that the kids bring in.
Theater count was never expected to be much larger, as estimates had it at 3k flat, not 3k+. School ends this week for a number of areas, so it could have a larger than normal Sunday for a better-than-otherwise IM.
I have a mild Over on it, and think it's probably undervalued, but am not going big on it, since I also think it looks bad (but have heard from fans who think it looks good, and that recent trailers and ads have been much better than the initial ones).
I agree that it looks bad (to me), so most bettors (being older) probably undervalue this movie and don't see the appeal, as the demos are kids and young teens, plus the families that the kids bring in.
Theater count was never expected to be much larger, as estimates had it at 3k flat, not 3k+. School ends this week for a number of areas, so it could have a larger than normal Sunday for a better-than-otherwise IM.
I have a mild Over on it, and think it's probably undervalued, but am not going big on it, since I also think it looks bad (but have heard from fans who think it looks good, and that recent trailers and ads have been much better than the initial ones).
That is an insane increase for Charlotte's Web. +566 theaters!
Usually when movies are estimated with a "+" sign, such as 3,000+, it means that it will increase 100-200 theaters, perhaps up to 300 for a big movie. It rarely goes past +300, although recently we've seen a couple +300 to +400 increases. Has anyone ever seen a jump of more than +400 theaters? I'm guessing most definitely not +500 (not counting pre-planned changes or a widespread distribution platform change).
Exhibitors must have a lot of confidence in this film. Those +566 theaters more than the 3k estimate mean that the movie can do a whole $1.2k less for its PTA and still make the line. Put another way, with a $7.7k PTA estimated from the original line of $23 million divided by 3k theaters, the extra 566 theaters would bring in $4.3 million more of business!
Usually when movies are estimated with a "+" sign, such as 3,000+, it means that it will increase 100-200 theaters, perhaps up to 300 for a big movie. It rarely goes past +300, although recently we've seen a couple +300 to +400 increases. Has anyone ever seen a jump of more than +400 theaters? I'm guessing most definitely not +500 (not counting pre-planned changes or a widespread distribution platform change).
Exhibitors must have a lot of confidence in this film. Those +566 theaters more than the 3k estimate mean that the movie can do a whole $1.2k less for its PTA and still make the line. Put another way, with a $7.7k PTA estimated from the original line of $23 million divided by 3k theaters, the extra 566 theaters would bring in $4.3 million more of business!
i bought out of my eragon bet...if it goes over22 i break even now...if it goes under 22 i lose small money....i dont trust the movie...i know advanced sales are good but the reviews are not this may pull a grudge2 type IM....who knows...
i debating if i should try to middle CW at wsex and their line of 22M....with all these extra theatres it should stand a good chance of getting to 22....im debating on what to do...
i debating if i should try to middle CW at wsex and their line of 22M....with all these extra theatres it should stand a good chance of getting to 22....im debating on what to do...
llabb said:
500+ is a big jump but for this movie it was sort of expected. Most guesses I saw were over 3400 theatres.
Decent middle attempt at Wsex and Pinny with Charlotte's. -118 for the Under 23 and Over 22 for -115 is worth a shot. I think this hits more then 1 in 12.5 times.
Eragon down to 11% at RT but #1 at mf. No idea whats going to happen here. Root for o23 but I don't like my chances at all.
i also expected it in around 3350-3400...obviously i wish it had only been bumped 3-400...i have learned not to put a whole lot of stock in the amount of theatres...the last few weeks we have seen movies in a shitload of theatres and they still underperform...see last weeks UM...
i think CWEB is gonna be a big movie i just dont think its gonna be one of those breakout must see OW type...its legs should be great once schools get out of winter break...i might just hold my under25 bet...ieven though that 3M middle looks juicy...
i think CWEB is gonna be a big movie i just dont think its gonna be one of those breakout must see OW type...its legs should be great once schools get out of winter break...i might just hold my under25 bet...ieven though that 3M middle looks juicy...
Where are you looking for expected screen counts, other than the BOM estimates? WW was completely guessing and was way off on 2/3. FJ and RS are generally inaccurate, compared to BOM. And unless I missed it, there were no official releases to expect a higher screen count. Have you ever seen a movie break the BOM +estimate by +400, let alone +500? Almost +600 is tremendous. (Disclaimer: This goes for theater increases since fall, and just in my general recollection. Perhaps some of the summer blockbusters had crazy jumps, but then you are comparing against enormous blockbusters.)HPark1 said:
Reviews generally don't matter that much for younger-skewing audiences, particularly kids and teens. Reviews probably matter most for lesser known, adult thinking films.HuskerFan1 said:
im done for the week, i just played UNDER19m PofH at wsex 1 to win 1.3units
now have
1unit under CW25M Im sticking with this bet as all signs point to a 22-23M opening.
1unit over PofH17M
1.75units to win 1.25units over PofH18M
1 to win 1.3units under PofH19M
eragon i bought out and will take a small loss if it bombs and break even if it goes over 22M
like where i stand currently...and i have a decent shot at a nice middle which would really make the weekend....
gl this weekend guys..........
now have
1unit under CW25M Im sticking with this bet as all signs point to a 22-23M opening.
1unit over PofH17M
1.75units to win 1.25units over PofH18M
1 to win 1.3units under PofH19M
eragon i bought out and will take a small loss if it bombs and break even if it goes over 22M
like where i stand currently...and i have a decent shot at a nice middle which would really make the weekend....
gl this weekend guys..........
Usual Megaplex Sales Advance -- Dec 14, 20:55
Pre-open Eragon: 40
as of 530pm
Friday:
Eragn: 79
Chweb: 24
Prhap: 11
Sat: 8 Chweb, 5 Eragn
Chweb should be able to match or slightly beat tracking.
Might be able to break $25 Mill but $30 Mill looks to be a stretch.
C Web got a huge huge huge increase from 3000+ to over 3500 theatres, which is because of tracking increasing throughout the week and theatres having more faith in this kids movie. Eragon is going to be in 3020 theatres which is expected since it was really up for more expansion.
Presales from one of the biggest theatres in Cali.
My final plays are going to be over on all 3. With big leans on CW at +odds it is at right now and also I have a decent amount on the over for Pursuit already. I am going to buy a little of Eragon also over since it is at -100 roughly odds. What is everyone else playing?
-Brendan
Pre-open Eragon: 40
as of 530pm
Friday:
Eragn: 79
Chweb: 24
Prhap: 11
Sat: 8 Chweb, 5 Eragn
Chweb should be able to match or slightly beat tracking.
Might be able to break $25 Mill but $30 Mill looks to be a stretch.
C Web got a huge huge huge increase from 3000+ to over 3500 theatres, which is because of tracking increasing throughout the week and theatres having more faith in this kids movie. Eragon is going to be in 3020 theatres which is expected since it was really up for more expansion.
Presales from one of the biggest theatres in Cali.
My final plays are going to be over on all 3. With big leans on CW at +odds it is at right now and also I have a decent amount on the over for Pursuit already. I am going to buy a little of Eragon also over since it is at -100 roughly odds. What is everyone else playing?
-Brendan
Brendanb438 said:
Very nice pre-sales for both Eragon and Charlotte's Web. Even with Eragon's fanboys and expected front-loading, that is a lot of tickets. Those advance sales may be even more promising for Charlotte's Web, since those types of kids/family films rarely have much in the way of pre-sales. Seems to be picking up steam lately, with the late tracking being very strong for a kids' movie.
Your Over on all 3 seems to perhaps be the way to go. Already have Overs on Eragond and Pursuit of Happyness, and thinking about taking the Charlotte Over, as the lines are pretty low currently. It wouldn't need much of a PTA to clear the line, with that huge screen count.
The last couple weeks have been disappointing at the box office, so people are probably ready to see something, and all 3 look quite appealing to different demographic segments. This is traditionally a very big weekend, with the box office having a big jump over prior weekends, and new openers have been very successful. Even Lemony Snicket got $30 million.
The comps for Charlotte's Web suggest it should go well Over. Babe and Stuart Little are probably the 2 best comps, as 1 is a talking pig family film, and the other is a kids movie based off of a popular book. Charlotte's Web should be a bigger draw than either of these, as it is one of the biggest children's bestsellers of all time, and both kids and their parents, particularly moms, should be interested. Parents should almost all remember it as a great book, and the movie is getting crazy good reviews, with a stellar 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and 8.0 on Metacritic.
Charlotte's Web has some really low lines out there, at 22 and 23, with the Over at either +odds or reasonable odds to take. With the enormous theater count at +566 theaters (one of the biggest I've ever seen) for 3,566 theaters and multiple screens in them, Charlotte only needs a 6.17k per theater average to make the line.
Babe garnered a 5.5k PTA way back in 1995. Inflation adjusted at 4%, that's an 8.8k PTA today. Even at a 2% rate, that's a 7k PTA, but as we all know, movie tickets have gotten a lot more expensive over the years, and 4% is probably still a conservative figure. If Charlotte got that 8.8k PTA that Babe would have, that would be a $31+ million opening. I'm not expecting anything that high, but it just shows you it's potential, as Charlotte's Web should be an even bigger draw than Babe.
The book is definitely a bigger draw than Stuart Little. Stuart had the same near-Christmas release date back in 1999, and is a very good comp, being a children's book movie, with Charlotte's being a bigger bestseller than Stuart. Stuart got a 5.2k PTA, which would be a 6.9k PTA today, and would mean that at Stuart Little levels, Charlotte would get a $24.6 million opening.
Also, late tracking is much better than normal for a kids' film, and suggests that Charlotte should be near the top of the weekend, in the mid-20's.
So taking the Over at seems pretty solid to me, either on it's own, or to go for a middle, for those who got in under the higher early lines.
Charlotte's Web has some really low lines out there, at 22 and 23, with the Over at either +odds or reasonable odds to take. With the enormous theater count at +566 theaters (one of the biggest I've ever seen) for 3,566 theaters and multiple screens in them, Charlotte only needs a 6.17k per theater average to make the line.
Babe garnered a 5.5k PTA way back in 1995. Inflation adjusted at 4%, that's an 8.8k PTA today. Even at a 2% rate, that's a 7k PTA, but as we all know, movie tickets have gotten a lot more expensive over the years, and 4% is probably still a conservative figure. If Charlotte got that 8.8k PTA that Babe would have, that would be a $31+ million opening. I'm not expecting anything that high, but it just shows you it's potential, as Charlotte's Web should be an even bigger draw than Babe.
The book is definitely a bigger draw than Stuart Little. Stuart had the same near-Christmas release date back in 1999, and is a very good comp, being a children's book movie, with Charlotte's being a bigger bestseller than Stuart. Stuart got a 5.2k PTA, which would be a 6.9k PTA today, and would mean that at Stuart Little levels, Charlotte would get a $24.6 million opening.
Also, late tracking is much better than normal for a kids' film, and suggests that Charlotte should be near the top of the weekend, in the mid-20's.
So taking the Over at seems pretty solid to me, either on it's own, or to go for a middle, for those who got in under the higher early lines.
Also, here are most of the appropriate Charlotte comps from BOM's similar films list. Charlotte's should be a bigger draw than most of these.
Curious George, G, 2/10/06, 5.73k PTA
Nanny McPhee, PG, 1/27/06, 7.27k PTA
Dreamer, PG, 10/21/05, 4.57k PTA
Because of Winn Dixie, PG, 2/18/05, 3.20k PTA
Garfield, PG, 6/11/04, 7.02k PTA
Stuart Little, PG, 12/17/99, 5.22k PTA
Dr. Doolittle, PG-13, 16/26/98, 10.45k PTA
Babe, G, 8/4/95, 5.49k PTA
These combine for an inflation-adjusted average of 7.4k PTA, which would be a $26.4 million opening for Charlotte.
This list shows that it's a fairly strong genre to get a solid PTA in, since it's a pretty strong average, even with several stinkers included on the list, which Charlotte should easily beat. Especially with a prime weekend right before the holiday season, and with many kids getting off school, which should make for a stronger-than-normal Sunday and a strong weekend multiplier.
Curious George, G, 2/10/06, 5.73k PTA
Nanny McPhee, PG, 1/27/06, 7.27k PTA
Dreamer, PG, 10/21/05, 4.57k PTA
Because of Winn Dixie, PG, 2/18/05, 3.20k PTA
Garfield, PG, 6/11/04, 7.02k PTA
Stuart Little, PG, 12/17/99, 5.22k PTA
Dr. Doolittle, PG-13, 16/26/98, 10.45k PTA
Babe, G, 8/4/95, 5.49k PTA
These combine for an inflation-adjusted average of 7.4k PTA, which would be a $26.4 million opening for Charlotte.
This list shows that it's a fairly strong genre to get a solid PTA in, since it's a pretty strong average, even with several stinkers included on the list, which Charlotte should easily beat. Especially with a prime weekend right before the holiday season, and with many kids getting off school, which should make for a stronger-than-normal Sunday and a strong weekend multiplier.
