Coronavirus Stock Market buy off.

[NorthernStar]

Forgot to respond to the clean energy index question.

Been watching a stock that someone on this board turned me on to named Solar Edge Technologies (SEDG). Think it was Northern Star and if I'm not mistaken he's in the business. Maybe he can come in here and confirm this. It's a solar panel company. It has been going like crazy since the market bottomed in April (almost a four bagger).

So this is just my theory but the housing market in the suburbs of Boston is booming. Not the city, the suburbs. Because of covid thousands, likely tens to hundreds of thousands of young people have found themselves working from home. Many are starting to believe that this new work culture will become normal and will be the predominant way going forward. I am watching offices close in Boston as their leases run out (you may remember that I predicted this about a month into the pandemic and the lockdowns became more draconian). Anyway, many of these young people live in or close to Boston to be part of the action and or reduce the commute which is a total time suck and hassle in any big city in America today. Because of the shutdowns they have retreated from the city and found the outdoors (many different ways). So I think inn aggregate they are findng out that they no longer need the hassle of the city and they are buying housing in the suburbs.

The shutdowns and work from home result also mean that people have a ton more money in their pockets. No more cost of commuting and parking; no more cost of eating out in the city; no more dry cleaning bills; no more necessity of spending money on makeups and coifs. Maybe no more is an overstatement. But you get the idea.

They have extra money, are moving out of the city, and likely are buying green heating systems. Add in the people who already have homes and are now upgrading because of their additional new found money.

Well, that about covers my thought pattern. Football time.

Pretty sure it was me touting SEDG stock. I jumped in shortly after they went public in the low teens and have recommended it more than once. Solar panels produce power in direct current. There are probably 200 + manufacturers of solar panels. The power is then inverted to alternating current. The number of players in the inverter companies is much less....maybe a dozen. Solar Edge will work with any of the solar panels that is one of the reason I like investing in the inverter company rather than the solar panel companies. What I like about Solar Edge is they make products for both residential and commercial projects. For a residential project there might be just one inverter. For commercial projects you might have one for 300 to 400 panels.

Another inverter company is Enphase (ENPH). They make a micro inverter and one is installed on each panels. Their main market right now is residential projects. The market for residential solar in terms of dollars is 200 times the market for commercial and utility scale solar. So there is a ton of potential in the residential market. Enphase had some problems especially with their quality but they are making a comeback with their newer micro-inverter. Their stock was probably a $1 about 2 years ago and is about $100 now. I have mentioned them too.

Everything in solar is about driving the cost down. One of the risks is solar panel manufacturer starts installing a micro inverter to the panel in the factory with automation and cheap labor.....then charging more for the panel......but the developer saves money by taking less time to install the solar system.

Enphase could end up selling micro-inverters to panel manufacturers to accomplish this. Solar Edge design doesnt lend itself to this concept. Or they could install their own micro-inverter. Some panel manufacturers are already starting using this in their design.

People hate change....doesnt matter what it is. Solar is here to stay. Coal is a dead man walking. Solar is a snowball that is rolling downhill and it is only going to get bigger. It is now the cheapest form of energy.

I just got a call today asking me to bid on a project in Indiana. Probably a $750 million project. Something like that needs a significant amount of people to build it in a timely fashion.

Just to put solar in perspective. If we installed solar on 1/3 of the land that is in CRP (so we are paying farmers not to farm on the land) we could supply all of the power that is needed in the USA. That is totally within our capabilities.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Sun don't shine at night though bro

And the promises of battery storage fixing that problem don't appear imminent

 

[NorthernStar]

Sun don't shine at night though bro

And the promises of battery storage fixing that problem don't appear imminent

it doesn't shine at night? Who knew? you better let someone know about this..... I mean like right away.

Not much of deep thinker or problem solver are you?

 

[Ricboff]

crazy great call NS.

'Coal is a dead man walking'

its certainly in huge trouble. It needs coal energy-consuming giant China on board, they r by far the largest user of coal, over 50% of world total!!!!

actually, looking at ICLN chart and seeking causation for this clear-huge shift, the following may have also been a big factor (in addition to those betting on Biden, perhaps). I wasnt aware of the following;

speech was on Sept 22. Look back at ICLN's chart- kinda coincides near perfect with its accent . China's credibility isnt exctly solid, so gotta walk the walk . Before 2030? that's around the corner , gotta start implementing mass changes


China’s President Xi Jinping stunned climate action observers in a speech at the United Nations general assembly last week with a pledge to reach “peak carbon” before 2030, and drive down emissions to virtually zero by 2060.

 

[PatsFan1283]

it doesn't shine at night? Who knew? you better let someone know about this..... I mean like right away.

Not much of deep thinker or problem solver are you?

Ha!

Who knew pointing out the massive issues with intermittency would be such a sore spot.

It has been a while since I’ve read up on Germany’s boondoggle foray into the space, hows that going?

Nuclear is and has always been the answer. It just doesn’t make Dem donors $$, however, I don’t want to take the thread on a political track.

 

[Bruins4Life]

lol, was having fun with it, guess it wasnt funny.....

these printing today;

IAU - (gold) 3,000,000 shares @ $18.25

AAPL - (Apple) 1,300,000 shares @ $116.26

XLE - (energy) 1,100,000 sahres @ $29.87

BNS (Bank of Nova Scotia) 2,700,000 @ $41.73 :think2:


BNS

6 mth daily, 8 ema

lots of room to run , it broke through the 50 sma today

Oct 5 was the ex dividend date for BNS. Maybe that explains the action.

 

[Ricboff]

no such thing as a free lunch, no manager is playing that game with $112,000,000, imo


ES was headed to test two weeks' ago high then a long long red candle late in the day-- news drivin, stimulus off the table...for now...as if they have a choice, lol. That candle was like a hot knife going through butter.....

 

[Ricboff]

fun fact; (note- acwi is a global equity etf)

qqq/acwi : one a 1-yr regression channel, qqq is now two-standard deviations away from normal price action on the LOW side. Posted a few pages back when the reverse situation existed. Historically, at this position it reverts to the mean. That is, the qqq to outperform in due time on a relative basis. assuming a 'new normal' is not forming

 

[Ricboff]

icln--#1284 to see chart-- have a look at the volume bars.......popcorn-eatinggif........was a up another modest 4.98% today; formed a doji sandwich, more upside, lol..nothing gets too stretched from the 8 ema (remember this is an etf- under its hood for individual stocks..some r in skyrocket mode, likely fueled by clean energy @))

.............

'We may see the SPY break $339 on the back of the financials finally breaking its 200 sma! '

yupper!!!!!!!Walked back the tweet, and the markets resumed yesterday, pre-2:45pm ish, LOL!!!!!..............see the spy chart, at the crossraods--- double top OR break it.

 

[Ricboff]

whoa;

Oct 5th (previously posted )

IAU - (gold) 3,000,000 shares @ $18.25

Oct 6th

IAU - 4,200,000 shares @ $18.15

Oct 7th

IAU 2,300,000 sahres @ $17.97





IAU (gold)

6 mth daily, 8 ema

 

[Ricboff]

Oct 5 was the ex dividend date for BNS. Maybe that explains the action.

um, maybe I take that back...

printed today;

TD 2,200,000 sahres @ 47.81 - ex-div tomorrow

wtf, wait for the chart to turn, and try to not miss the div

 

[Ricboff]

some muni bond holders to be left holding the bag......


https://www.marketwatch.com/article...-there-will-be-more-trouble-ahead-51598638702

Cities and States Are Facing a $1 Trillion Budget Mess. There Will Be More Trouble Ahead


When it comes to city and state financial messes, Richard Ravitch has seen it all.
In 1975, he helped pull New York City from the brink of bankruptcy as the middle class fled to the suburbs. In 1980, he led the city’s transit authority through a strike so brutal that he needed a bulletproof vest. As lieutenant governor of New York state in 2009, he showed how to save its budget from the ravages of the global financial crisis and years of fiscal denial.
But none of that, he says, compares with the toll that Covid-19 is inflicting on municipal finance. This time is much worse.
“It’s worse because the revenue shortfall is uncertain and horrific,” says Ravitch, now a director of the Volcker Alliance, a nonprofit group that advises on effective government. “There’s an enormous loss of revenue going on, and we don’t know how long it will last.”


Try telling that to investors in America’s $3.9 trillion market for municipal bonds. Even as city and state governments reel, investors are clamoring for their bonds. In fact, muni bond prices have surged throughout the pandemic, the result of the sector’s solid performance in past periods of stress. Yields, which move in the opposite direction of prices, are now at their lowest levels since the 1950s.
Nothing seems to stop this rally. When anxious cities and states offered $42 billion in new bonds in July—the biggest July for issuance in at least 34 years—buyers gobbled them up. When Congress adjourned for its summer recess on Aug. 13 without sending more aid to cities and states, the market shrugged. Hundreds of billions in relief had been on the table, but even without any discernible progress toward getting the legislation passed, municipal bond prices kept climbing.
Yields are now so puny—0.7% for top-rated 10-year munis—that a growing number of pros are turning cautious on the market. It’s true that the yields look better when you factor in the tax advantages of munis; the interest is typically exempt from federal and often from state taxes. But 0.7% is less than one-tenth of a percentage point above the yields of comparable Treasury bonds, and low however you slice it. Earlier this year, muni investors were demanding a premium of two percentage points over Treasuries.
Put differently, the yields may not be enough to compensate investors for the risks—those “horrific” budget holes that Ravitch sees. With so many businesses closing and so many people either out of work or working from home, revenues from sales and income taxes are way off. Ditto for gasoline taxes, tolls for bridges and tunnels, public transit fares, and airport fees.


In all, states are facing a budget shortfall of $555 billion for the three years through June of 2022, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. For cities and towns, it’s $360 billion for the three years through December of 2022, says the National League of Cities. That’s a grand total approaching $1 trillion.
The question now: How many municipal bond issuers—cities, states, and others—won’t be able to repay investors? In May, Fairfield, Ala., a suburb of Birmingham, became the first city to declare bankruptcy since Detroit in 2013. Earlier, New York’s transit authority, the largest in the nation, was headed for dire straits before a $3.9 billion federal bailout in May. This month, the authority tapped the Federal Reserve’s emergency borrowing facility, and now it’s pleading for $12 billion more. The rating on its $46 billion of bonds is hovering at the lower end of investment grade.

To be clear, the muni market on the whole remains a relatively safe port in the world of bonds. It’s not for nothing that munis are still staples in the portfolios of high-net-worth investors. Since 1900, only one state has defaulted—Arkansas in 1933. States, by law, can’t go into bankruptcy. Some 15 states enjoy triple-A ratings from both Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. But munis clearly are not as safe as they used to be. The terrain today is uncharted.
“States are expecting Covid-19 to impact their outlooks for several years to come,” says Kathryn Vesey White, director of budget process studies at the National Association of State Budget Officers. “The longer this crisis goes on, and without additional federal aid made available to states and local governments, we could see more market volatility.”


At a minimum, say muni pros, buyers need to get choosier, sticking with issuers that can keep their finances strong. That will call for a mind-set adjustment, judging by investor’s ardor for “junk” muni bonds, or those rated double-B-plus or lower. In 2009, toward the end of the financial crisis, junk munis traded a full seven percentage points above triple-A-rated munis. Now, the difference is just three points.
“Spreads are stupidly narrow in my opinion,” says J.R. Rieger, owner of the Rieger Report muni newsletter.
“There’s almost more demand than bonds available,” adds Craig Brandon, co-director of municipal investments for asset manager Eaton Vance. “That dynamic is overwhelming the credit concerns—Covid-19 and the fact that Congress walked away.”
So far, the voracious buying has been vindicated. The largest muni exchange-traded fund, iShares National Muni Bond (ticker: MUB), now trades at $115.71, nearly 15% above the March 19 low of $101.52. Barron’s highlighted opportunities like that in an article about munis in March as markets plunged. But with prices at these levels, munis aren’t nearly as attractive now. Bargains appear few and far between, and risks are clearly rising.


Signs of the crisis facing cities and states are everywhere. Subways, commuter trains, and buses across the country—indeed, around the world—have suffered ridership drops as steep as 90%. In Columbus, Ohio, a massive interchange improvement program is on hold because of the drop in fuel-tax revenue, as cars remain parked in driveways. In Philadelphia, Washington, and a growing number of other cities, garbage is piling up in the streets.
The cascade of cutbacks all start with big decisions that have to be made by people like Robert Mujica, New York state’s budget director. He says the state, the first to be hit hard by the virus outbreak, is freezing hiring, new contracts, and pay raises, and temporarily holding back a fifth of its payments that had been earmarked for local governments, health care, K-12 schools and higher education, transit systems, and even nonprofits contracted to provide foster care. “On the local assistance side, every payment that’s going out is 20% light,” he says in an interview.
As Mujica suggests, how states manage through the Covid-19 crisis will affect not only their own financial fortunes but also those of their cities, counties, and towns, plus a range of other public entities. The states are key.
Given that reality, Barron’s asked Eaton Vance for a snapshot of the state of the states—a ranking of all 50 by financial strength. Eaton Vance, a major muni investor, provided a similar picture for Barron’s in 2014 as the economy emerged from the financial crisis.
The ranking is based on crunching essential financial and economic data from the past fiscal year, ended on June 2019, including debt levels, pension liabilities, health-care obligations, and economic metrics. For our table, the firm provided some updated data for the Covid-19 period, including projected budget shortfalls, unemployment rates, and rainy day funds. Despite the age of the basic data, the results closely track each state’s current bond ratings by Moody’s and S&P.
“Heading into the pandemic, from a credit quality perspective, states were in good shape,” says Bill Delahunty, Eaton Vance’s director of municipal research. “Leverage was low for states, and liquidity was at all-time highs. Now, we’re heading into unprecedented times.”
The top three states are Idaho, Wyoming, and South Dakota. Wyoming has rainy day funds amounting to a year of annual revenues. “Many of these states have very low levels of debt and very robust liquidity,” says Delahunty. But bonds from those states are less than plentiful. “No one will say, ‘We’re going to back up the truck and buy these bonds.’ You can’t find them,” he says.


The risks of the states at the bottom of the ranking—Illinois and New Jersey—are well known and longstanding. Illinois is burdened by its large, unfunded pension liabilities and a “chronic unpaid bill backlog,” according to Moody’s Investors Service’s analyst Ted Hampton. Illinois has a rainy day fund of just $4 million. It’s rated triple-B-minus, the lowest investment grade, by both Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. As a result, bond yields were recently 223 basis points, or 2.23 percentage points, above a common muni benchmark, by far the greatest spread of any state. Eaton Vance likes that spread so much that it holds some of the bonds itself, Delahunty says.
To address its problems, Illinois recently borrowed $1.2 billion from the Federal Reserve and got state authorization to borrow $5 billion more. Analysts believe that Illinois has some room to raise taxes, which could keep the bond ratings from slipping below investment grade.
New Jersey entered the crisis with what Gov. Phil Murphy calls a “fiscal peashooter”—the result of “decades of fiscal mismanagement” and one of the worst-funded state retirement plans in the U.S. Murphy has called for higher taxes for the wealthy. New Jersey has a rainy day fund of $421 million, just 1% of its revenue, compared with No. 1–ranked Idaho’s at 11.5%. Its bond rating of A-minus is squarely in the middle of investment grade.
The next lowest states—Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky—also face serious challenges. Connecticut, for instance, is plagued by high debt per capita, says Eaton Vance. Pennsylvania has weak reserves and high unemployment. Connecticut is looking at budget cuts of 10% a year, and Rhode Island, of 15%. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf has called for legalizing cannabis, hoping that pot revenue can help.
Perhaps the greatest risk for any of the states’ bonds at this point is a credit-rating downgrade, and the attendant drop in price. After the financial crisis, muni downgrades outpaced upgrades all the way until 2014, says analyst Tom Kozlik of Hilltop Securities,
Moody’s already has placed the entire sector of state munis on “negative” outlook, reflecting its view of conditions facing the states for the next 12 to 18 months.
In addition, Moody’s has given that designation to five specific states: Alaska, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, and New York. Standard & Poor’s has a negative view on Alaska, Illinois, Nevada, and New Jersey, plus Hawaii, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. Investors will want to keep an eye on fiscal news from those states.
More trouble could be brewing further down the food chain. Moody’s has slapped a negative outlook on the bonds of four major cities since the pandemic began: Las Vegas, rated double-A, and Honolulu, rated double-A-plus, both because of the hit to tourism; and San Francisco, triple-A, and New York, double-A-plus, because of the potential deterioration of their tax bases.


In San Francisco this past week, scores of city workers protested proposed budget cuts as wildfire smoke hung in the air. With the third wave of wildfires in as many years, “the bigger risk is people moving out,” which would hit the city’s tax base hard, says R. Paul Herman, CEO of HIP Investor, a San Francisco–based data and analytics provider.
California municipalities farther down the peninsula are experiencing even more intense smoke. One at-risk issue could be the County of Santa Cruz’s A-plus-rated special tax refunding bonds, whose stated risk factors include natural disasters like fires. This year’s deadly storms and sea-level rise are already hitting Louisiana, No. 44 on our state list and home to lots of energy infrastructure.


Among small issuers of municipal bonds, defaults already are on the rise. Retirement-facility operator American Eagle, which used muni proceeds in 2018 to buy 17 retirement homes in eight states, missed a July interest payment after tours and move-ins at its homes plunged by 75%. Its bond price fell to about 20 cents on the dollar in July, from 94 cents in January.
That was just one of 52 small issuers to default so far this year, says Municipal Market Analytics. Not surprisingly, bankruptcy lawyers have sprung into action. “We’re seeing increasing distress in senior living, student housing, hospitality and hotels, and project finance,” says William Kannel, chair of the bankruptcy and restructuring practice at Boston-based Mintz, Levin, Cohn, Ferris, Glovsky, and Popeo.
As pressures build on cities, states, and municipalities, some seasoned muni pros fear that general-obligation bonds, long the gold standard for the market, could face particularly severe stress. These munis are paid from issuer’s general coffers, rather than from specific streams of revenue, such as water and sewer bonds or state lottery bonds. GOs, which account for some 26% of the market, “will likely have the most pronounced negative impact,” says Karl Zeile, a fixed-income manager at Capital Group.
Until recently, defaulting on GO bonds was almost unthinkable. But the bonds lost some of their aura in the Detroit bankruptcy, when some GO holders settled for as little as 41 cents on the dollar. Covid-19 could force more issuers to make a tough choice: reduce funding for police, teachers, and pensioners, or cut it for bondholders.
“I wouldn’t own general-obligation bonds,” says Ravitch of the Volcker Alliance. “Why should people trust the political system to make unpleasant decisions to help bondholders?”
Ultimately, the health of America’s cities and states is about more than the health of the issuers’ direct stakeholders. It’s about the well-being of the nation. City and state governments contribute about 20% of U.S. gross national product, making them a central ingredient of any recovery.
Coming out of the global financial crisis, the lingering problems of cities and states proved to be a drag on the entire economy, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wrote recently, a situation the current leadership in Washington would presumably want to avoid repeating. Democrats and Republicans may eventually be forced to find common ground on additional aid, but if not, the November elections could break the logjam.
That’s why Paul Malloy, head of municipals and credit research at Vanguard, likes and holds the bonds of New York’s Metropolitan Transit Authority, which runs buses and subways and is a poster child for federal aid. Figuring more will come its way, Vanguard currently owns $3.4 billion of MTA revenue bonds across six different funds. Malloy favors bonds with some downside protection—that is, bond insurance, which is coming back into style after a long hiatus (see below).
The MTA, he reckons, is too important to fail. “We think it’s an essential service, absolutely crucial, and essential for a national recovery,” says Malloy. “I don’t think you’ll have a national recovery without New York City getting back on-line, and mass transit is a very important component.” If he’s right, the battered bonds of the MTA could be moonshots.
Remember all those TV ads about munis being boring and safe? In the midst of a pandemic, they’re neither.

 

[Ricboff]

not entirely market related, but i'll put this here rather than open a thread for it.


Over 7,000 Scientists, Doctors Call For COVID Herd Immunity, End To Lockdowns

Over six thousand scientists and doctors have signed a petition against coronavirus lockdown measures, urging that those not in the at risk category should be able to get on with their lives as normal, and that lockdown rules in both the US and UK are causing ‘irreparable damage’.

[FONT=lucida_granderegular]The petition, dubbed the Great Barrington Declaration after the town in Massachusetts where it was written, has been signed by close to 73,000 members of the public at time of writing, as well as over 4,700 medical and public health scientists and around 3,200 medical practitioners.[/FONT]

“Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal,” it notes, adding “Keeping these [lockdown] measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.”
“Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health,” the declaration also declares.
​

[FONT=lucida_granderegular]


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</aside>[/FONT]​

[FONT=lucida_granderegular]It continues, “The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular [heart] disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden.”[/FONT]

“Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice,” the declaration adds.
“Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal, it concludes, explaining that “Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold.”
“Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home,” it emphasises.
​

[FONT=lucida_granderegular]Finally, the declaration demands that normal life should resume, stating that “Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.”[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]The declaration echoes President Trump’s words earlier this week when he returned to the White House and asked Americans not to live in fear or let let the virus dominate their everyday lives

[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]The declaration dovetails with other research that has concluded lockdowns will conservatively “destroy at least seven times more years of human life” than they save.[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]Germany’s Minister of Economic Cooperation and Development, Gerd Muller, has warned that lockdown measures throughout the globe will end up killing more people than the Coronavirus itself.[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]In an interview with German newspaper Handelsblatt, Muller warned that the response to the global pandemic has resulted in “one of the biggest” hunger and poverty crises in history.[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]Muller’s comments come five months after a leaked study from inside the German Ministry of the Interior revealed that the impact of the country’s lockdown could end up killing more people than the coronavirus due to victims of other serious illnesses not receiving treatment.[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]As we have previously highlighted, in the UK there have already been up to 10,000 excess deaths as a result of seriously ill people avoiding hospitals due to COVID-19 or not having their hospital treatments cancelled.[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]Professor Richard Sullivan also warned that there will be more excess cancer deaths in the UK than total coronavirus deaths due to people’s access to screenings and treatment being restricted as a result of the lockdown.[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]His comments were echoed by Peter Nilsson, a Swedish professor of internal medicine and epidemiology at Lund University, who said, “It’s so important to understand that the deaths of COVID-19 will be far less than the deaths caused by societal lockdown when the economy is ruined.”

[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]According to Professor Karol Sikora, an NHS consultant oncologist, there could be 50,000 excess deaths from cancer as a result of routine screenings being suspended during the lockdown in the UK.[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]In addition, a study published in The Lancet that notes “physical distancing, school closures, trade restrictions, and country lockdowns” are worsening global child malnutrition.[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]Experts have also warned that there will be 1.4 million deaths globally from untreated TB infections due to the lockdown.

[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]As we further previously highlighted, a data analyst consortium in South Africa found that the economic consequences of the country’s lockdown will lead to 29 times more people dying than the coronavirus itself.[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]Hundreds of doctors are also on record as opposing lockdown measures, warning that they will cause more death than the coronavirus itself.[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]Despite citizens across the world being told to observe the lockdown to “save lives,” numerous experts who are now warning that the lockdown could end up costing more lives are being ignored or smeared by the media.[/FONT]
[FONT=lucida_granderegular]* * *[/FONT]
The Great Barrington Declaration

<section data-element_type="section" data-id="22faf86" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13.1px; line-height: inherit; font-family: lucida_granderegular, "Lucida Grande", Verdana, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(61, 61, 61);">As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.


(<)<

...............

Our reaction has created an absolute mess on many levels . A friend who's dad is a phychistrist believes PTSD will linger for years








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[Ricboff]

Oct historically a volatile month....only mid way, the VIX took a blow ...


VIX

6 mth daily, 50 sma

played in a box since early Sept, at the bottom of the box kept boucing off the 50 sma, ar army to defend..........broke today.......

and to add to the bullish contiunation tone......we.......have......


UUP (USD)

6 mth daily , 50 sma

whoa...gap down , USD beatdown....waves bye bye to the 50 sma,.....the metals went ballistic...........


printed today;

IAU (gold, and yeah , im serious 4 days of massive prints on this fucker !)- $3,000,000 @ $18,32

GLD (gold) 2,200,000 shares @ $180.99 (.............someone aint fuckin' around - $398,178,000)


gold ,as posted earlier, seasonality- Nov- Feb historically solid qtr

this may help too...: "I would like to see a bigger stimulus package, frankly, than either the Democrats or the Republicans are offering," Trump said in an interview on conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh's program. "I'm going the exact opposite now.""I'd like to see a bigger package,"

 

[Ricboff]

for clarity, altho the VIX lost its 50 sma, i dont expect any 'calmness' in the market in the near the future- do not see $22 lost. Inference, my opinion. Again, implied volatility is telling us to expect a volatile Nov, Dec- NOT the norm , historically, after an election. That's what its saying, for now at least


the market doesnt like the unknown- would be better, for the short term, if there was a decisive winner come early Nov. If tight and contested? well, looking back at history for some guidance as to what to expect-- during the Gore/Bush contested election, the SPY dropped 8% during that uncertain time. Once resolution she was on her way to recovery. This COULD happen again. So , careful , protect profits swing traders......and of course, eye on the candles (weekly/daily)

 

[Ricboff]

fun fact; (note- acwi is a global equity etf)

qqq/acwi : one a 1-yr regression channel, qqq is now two-standard deviations away from normal price action on the LOW side. Posted a few pages back when the reverse situation existed. Historically, at this position it reverts to the mean. That is, the qqq to outperform in due time on a relative basis. assuming a 'new normal' is not forming

well, that didnt take very long, lol. Regression channels r cool, love them. Kinda gives ya an idea when something is getting way out of whack from its normal behaviour (to buy or get atta dodge...another tool in the toolbox); more meaningful when they get into the 2-standard deviation area, of course it can get into outlier territory but probability highly suggests it will start to revert to the mean. I even like to put indicators on them as well, rsi, atr, macd


i had posted about aapl awhile back being beyond the its 2-standard deviation , pretty sure i did...try to find that

 

[Ricboff]

here is AAPL's chart

6 mth daily, 8 ema

the long white candles was friday's action and it CARRIED the market. Apple's market cap in ONE DAY rose as much as the entire market cap of most bank companies-- let that sink in for a minute

for investors (not traders), it does bring up interesting debate-- market cap weighted etf Vs equal weighted etf . Obviously, one has significantly outperformed in 2020, at this moment in time

and lastly, on a regression channel-- Apple is OUTSIDE its 2-standard deviation level on the high side, lol

found lt. Posted on 08/24- look at the chart-- it went well into outlier territiory , into no man's land....before reverting . As of late last week on its channel its right in the middle-- needless to say, violent bounce from the middle!! haha!!

 

[PatsFan1283]

Based on the quotes from the GOP senators this weekend, seems like they were basically telling Trump/Dems they aren't interested in large scale fiscal stimulus before the election. I would think Trump can get them to bend to his will but we'll see, maybe not if they think he's on his way out....

 

[Ricboff]

well, if they dont get that done , a long red candle may come real soon..........

read that Morgam Stanley and Moody's predict higher gdp growth and job growth under biden's economic plan compared to current policies -- perhaps the market isnt afraid of a biden win? what is biden's economic plan? dems would have control of the house to, no? they going on a mass spending spree?

 

[PatsFan1283]

In a nutshell, his plan is basically a ton of government spending and fiscal stimulus. Infrastructure, climate change initiatives and I think the market is expecting him to pay lip service to tax increases but prioritize spending first.

Dems will not have 60 seats in the Senate though so would likely need the filibuster to really spend like they want to.

But I think the market is viewing Biden as more of an establishment puppet rather than a liberal renegade.