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[CNOTES]

Championship Round Q&A
January 21, 2016




It’s Championship Week in the NFL and with it two teams are one win away from playing in Super Bowl 50 in San Francisco, February 4. Like most football fans nationwide, everyone has an opinion on the teams that figure to advance. Our database does, too.


There are generally three schools of thought when it comes to handicapping the final four teams on this week’s card. You can look at them fundamentally, statistically, or you can analyze them technically.

While having varying opinions on which of the four teams will advance, and why, handicappers alike often times speak in foreign tongues. With reasons ranging from players and coaches to fundamentals to situations, the views are many.


But since our database speaks a language of its own, we are limited to asking questions and reading answers germane to our query. Here are answers to five Q & A queries we posed to the database and the answers we found surrounding NFL Championship games. All results are SU (Straight Up) and ATS (Against The Spread) since 1980, unless noted otherwise.


Q – How have home teams fared in this game?
A – NFC hosts are 24-11 SU and 19-15-1 ATS, while AFC home teams are 23-12 SU and 19-16 ATS.


Q –Who is the better money winner, favorites or dogs?
A – Favorites have owned the edge, going 48-21 SU and 38-30-1 ATS, including 39-19 SU and 35-22-1 ATS when laying less than 10 points.


Q – How do teams that own the better record perform?
A – The majority of time teams with the better records are almost always the home team. The records for teams that own the better win percentage are solid, going 44-20 SU and 36-27-1 ATS. When installed as dogs or favorites of less than 10 points these better record teams are 33-19-1 ATS.


Q – How has the Over/Under fared in these games?
A – Surprisingly, these games have had a tendency to fly over the total in this round, going 28-19-3 ‘Over’ in games since the 1990 season. More specific, games in which the posted totals have been at the opposite end of the ladder (more than 46 points or less than 41) have gone ‘Over’ in title games to a greater degree. That’s confirmed by the fact that those games with a total of more than 46 points have played 9-5-1 ‘Over’ the number, while totals of less than 41 have gone 11-4-2 to the ‘Over’ as well.


Q – What wins in conference title games, offense or defense?
A – When it comes to advancing to the Super Bowl one fact is critical: size matters when it comes to putting points on the scoreboard in divisional round playoff games.


Not surprisingly, teams who score 14 or fewer points in championship games are soon to be extinct as they are 4-38 SU and 5-37 ATS since 1980.


On the flip side, those teams who score 28 or more points in conference title games are 36-5 SU and 33-7-1 ATS over the same span.


FYI: home teams that manage put up 28 or more points in this round are an eye-opening 25-0 SU and 22-3 ATS.


There you have it. The database has spoken. Somewhere between its language and yours is a winner or two on this week’s card. Enjoy the games.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Championships
January 22, 2016


Divisional Playoffs Recap


Total bettors saw the results split last week as the ‘over/under’ went 2-2 and it could’ve been 3-1 to the ‘under’ if the Chiefs didn’t score a late touchdown against the Patriots. Through two weeks of the playoffs, the ‘under’ stands at 5-3 through eight games.


Championship Game History


The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 the last five years in the championship games and that includes the lucky ‘over’ ticket in last year’s NFC title game between the Seahawks and Packers.


New England will be playing in its fifth straight AFC championship and the ‘under’ has cashed in the last four but this is the lowest total the team has seen during this stretch.


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2005-2015)


Year Result Total


2014-2015 New England 45 vs. Indianapolis 7 52.5, UNDER


2013-2014 Denver 26 vs. New England 16 57, UNDER


2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 49.5, UNDER


2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 49, UNDER


2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, OVER


2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, OVER


2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, OVER


2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, UNDER


2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, OVER


2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 at Denver 17 41, OVER




NFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2005-2015)


Year Result Total


2014-2015 Seattle 28 vs. Green Bay 22 (OT) 47, OVER


2013-2014 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 40.5, UNDER


2012-2013 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 48, OVER


2011-2012 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 (OT) 42, UNDER


2010-2011 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 42, UNDER


2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 (OT) 54, OVER


2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, OVER


2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 at Green Bay 20 41, OVER


2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER


2005-2006 Seattle 34 vs. Carolina 14 43.5, OVER




AFC Championship – New England at Denver (CBS, 3:00 p.m. ET)


This total opened at 44 ½ and the number has held steady all week. These teams met in Week 12 and the Broncos rallied for a 30-24 overtime victory at home over the Patriots and the ‘over’ 43 connected with a late surge, 33 of those points coming in the fourth quarter and extra session.


I wouldn’t suggest you toss this result out completely but the game was affected by key injuries. The Patriots didn’t have wide receivers Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola available, plus tight end Rob Gronkowski was knocked out in the fourth quarter with a knee injury. Denver didn’t have linebacker DeMarcus Ware suited up and they lost a pair of starters T.J. Ward and Sylvester Williams in the first half to injuries.


Brock Osweiler started for Denver in the win but he’s now in the backup role again behind Peyton Manning, who has been anything but sensational this season. In six games at home this season with Peyton under center, Denver has averaged 22.3 points per game and that includes last week’s 23-16 win over Pittsburgh. The stat mentioned often this week that’s eye opening is that Manning has only tossed one touchdown pass at home this season.


The result against the Steelers last Sunday went ‘under’ and that’s been the theme at Sports Authority Field this season. The low side has gone 6-2-1 in nine games at Denver, which has been helped by a defense that has only surrendered 18.2 PPG at home this season.


New England’s defense (19.7 PPG) has a very sound unit, but make a note that Denver racked up 433 total yards (179 rushing) in this year’s victory with Osweiler.


Offensively, New England is ranked third in scoring (28.9 PPG) but it’s a one-dimensional attack. In last week’s win against Kansas City, the Patriots scored 27 points but only ran the ball 14 times in the victory.


Tom Brady receives the all attention in New England, deservingly, but the Edelman factor continues to get notice. He had 10 receptions last week for 100 yards and in the 10 games that he’s played this season, the Pats have averaged 33 PPG and the ‘over’ is 6-4 in those games.


This will be the 17th meeting between Brady and Manning and Tom owns an 11-5 record in the head-to-head encounters. The ‘over’ has gone 10-6 during this span. However, the Patriots have gone 2-6 in their eight visits to Denver with Tom Brady at QB and the ‘over’ has gone 5-3 in those games. On a comical note, the two signal callers that Brady beat are a pair of former college stars from Florida (Tim Tebow, Danny Kanell) that are now pundits on ESPN.


In the lone game versus Peyton at Denver, Brady and the Pats were bested 26-16 in the 2014 AFC Championship. The total on that game closed at 56 ½, which tells you how far Peyton has dropped off and how improved the Broncos defense is.

Fearless Prediction: This is a real tough total to handicap and your decision will likely come down to which side you like. If you believe Denver can run the football and control the clock, then you’re likely leaning ‘under’ in this game. And if you’re backing New England, you’re probably leaning to the high side and you should. In the Patriots last seven postseason wins, the ‘over’ has gone 5-2 while averaging 34.5 PPG. In New England previous three playoff losses, they’ve scored 16, 13 and 17 points – all ‘under’ tickets. With all that being said, I’m going to lean Denver Team Total Under 20 this Sunday.


NFC Championship – Arizona at Carolina (FOX, 6:30 p.m. ET)


A high-scoring game is expected in this week’s NFC Championship and the ‘over’ has caught some early attention. Most books opened 47, 47 ½ and the number has reached 48 and 48 ½ at a few betting shops as of Friday morning. You could make the argument that his total should be in the fifties, considering the Panthers (31.2 PPG) and Cardinals (30.3 PPG) enter this game as the two best scoring attacks in the league.


The pair met in last year’s playoffs and Carolina earned a 27-16 win over Arizona but this result could be tossed out since Ryan Lindley was the starting quarterback for the Cardinals. The ‘over’ (37 ½) cashed and it’s amazing it did considering Arizona gained 78 total offensive yards but still managed to score 16 points. What should be noted is that QB Cam Newton (198 yards, 2 TDs) and RB Jonathan Stewart (123 yards, 1 TD) both had a great efforts against an Arizona defensive unit that was probably better than this year’s unit.


Carolina averaged 32.8 PPG at home this season and just dropped 31 points in the first-half on Seattle last Sunday. The Panthers racked up 144 rushing yards against the Seahawks and could have more success this Sunday, knowing that Green Bay outgained Arizona 135-40 on the ground in last Saturday’s Divisional Playoff matchup.


The Cardinals couldn’t run (40 yards) the ball last week against the Packers and QB Carson Palmer looked very nervous, getting picked off twice deep in Green Bay territory and he should’ve had three interceptions. Now he faces a Carolina defense that is much better in the middle and on the outside than the Packers.


Arizona watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 in eight road games, but the Cardinals enter this game on a 6-1 run to the ‘under’ and that includes last week’s ticket to the low side versus the Packers. Playing in the Eastern Time Zone hasn’t been an issue for Arizona this season and the late start could actually help them. The Cardinals went 3-1 in four games on the East Coast, while averaging 32.3 PPG. The one loss came at Pittsburgh (25-13) as Arizona turned the ball over three times, two of the mistakes coming from Palmer.


Carolina has been a great ‘over’ bet this season, going 11-5-1 this season and that includes a 6-2-1 ‘over’ mark at Bank of America Stadium.


The field at this venue has been criticized recently and labeled as “soft” and it could be softer on Sunday with rain and possibly snow expected for both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures for kickoff are expected to be in the forties with clear skies.


Fearless Prediction: Of the two title games the last 10 years, we’ve seen more ‘over’ tickets in the NFC and we’ve also seen more competitive games. I believe both clubs are going to score in the twenties in this spot and as long as you don’t see a barrage of field goals, this game should go to the high side. I’m leaning Arizona Team Total Over 23 ½ and Carolina Team Total Over 26 ½. Since I believe both those will connect, I’d lean to the game Over 48 as well and expect the winner to get at least 30 points.

 

[CNOTES]

Mind games between Patriots-Broncos
January 21, 2016


ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) Gronk pushes off. Brady whines.


If it's AFC championship week, somebody must be complaining about the New England Patriots.


This time around, it's the Denver Broncos, who have delivered a few hits through the media - both traditional and social - in a not-so-subtle attempt to get inside the heads of both the Patriots and, quite possibly, the officials who will call Sunday's game.


The biggest pokes have, not surprisingly, been directed at Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, with the Broncos suggesting he likes to push off and how it's really best to tackle him by going after his delicate knees. Gronk didn't appreciate that and responded in R-rated fashion on Twitter.


Tom Brady took some shots, too, labeled a crybaby for complaining to refs.


''Just talk. Just talk,'' Broncos tight end Vernon Davis said. ''I don't think they would say anything to target anyone on the Patriots side.''


These early week doses of trash talk have calmed down now that the real preparation has begun. Still, they've made for a decent story line to go beside the hundreds of different takes on Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, Part 17.


The highlights:


- Broncos linebacker Brandon Marshall weighed in on Gronkowski, saying he uses his big frame to push off.


- Defensive lineman Antonio Smith didn't hold back on Brady with his comments: ''I've never seen any quarterback look to the referee right after he gets sacked more than Brady. Every time he gets sacked he looks at the ref like, `You see him sack me?'''


But the comment that caused Gronk to throw a flag was mention by several Broncos of going after his knees, since he's so hard to bring down. Gronkowski responded with a tweet that let his feelings be known in a comical, yet not exactly fit for print sort of way. He added a few emoji for good measure.


''I was just having a little fun with it, hoping to get a little laugh, which I think it did,'' Gronkowski said. ''It's just all fun and games with that.''


Still, linebacker Danny Trevathan didn't exactly find Gronkowski's tweet endearing. He took it as more of a stab at his defense.


Trevathan insisted the banter stokes the fire.


''I'm glad they feel confident in themselves. I think people are looking for attention,'' Trevathan said. ''It's not my job to give it to them until Sunday. My job is to shut them down when they come here, keep his mouth closed as much as I can.''


Broncos defensive back Bradley Roby finds all the back-and-forth highly entertaining. It's juicy stuff.


''We're not worried about the trash talking, just makes it more exciting,'' Roby said. ''Brings more attention to the game.''


As for the assertion that Brady lobbies more than most for penalties with the officials, well, the iconic QB took the high road. He said he's ''not sure'' if he works the referees more than other quarterbacks around the league.


''If the refs want to throw the flag, I love when they throw flags on the defenders, absolutely,'' Brady said. ''It advances our team, so that's just part of football.''


So is trying to get under a team's skin. Davis experienced the same sort of thing when he was with San Francisco and preparing to face rival Seattle.


''Everyone is talking - you can say this, you can say that - but at the end of the day, actions speak louder than words,'' Davis said. ''When it comes to the talking, I stay away from it.''


Hard to ignore social media barbs, though. Unless, of course, you're offensive lineman Ryan Harris.


''I don't even know what Twitter is. What's Twitter?'' Harris deadpanned. ''Whoever is going to win this game, it's going to be decided on the field this Sunday, not on some social media site, or some quotation that may or may not have been taken out of context.''

 

[CNOTES]

NFL refs forget balls at hotel
January 21, 2016


BOSTON (AP) This ball controversy can't be blamed on the Patriots.


Massachusetts State Police came to the rescue before Saturday's NFL playoff game between New England and the Kansas City Chiefs by delivering footballs that game officials left at their hotel.


A state police spokesman said at about 2:30 p.m. Saturday, league officials contacted the Hyatt at Logan Airport to say that some balls and air pressure gauges had been left behind. The balls were the ones used in the kicking game.


Hotel workers entered the room and a state trooper drove the equipment to Gillette Stadium, arriving about an hour before kickoff.


The Patriots beat the Chiefs 27-20.


The officials' gaffe came about a year after the start of the ''Deflategate'' scandal, when the Patriots were accused of using underinflated balls. The drama led to league changes in how footballs are handled before games.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Playoff Action
January 22, 2016




NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (13-4) at DENVER BRONCOS (12-4)


Kickoff: Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET
AFC Championship Game
Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -3, Total: 44


Peyton Manning and the Broncos host Tom Brady and the Patriots in what could be the final postseason matchup between the two legendary quarterbacks on Sunday.


The Patriots hosted the red-hot Chiefs in the Divisional Round and came away with a 27-20 victory as six-point home favorites. New England had lost its final two regular season games before playing that game, but the team put any concerns to bed with the win over Kansas City.


The Broncos, meanwhile, hosted the Steelers on Sunday and came away with a 23-16 win as seven-point home favorites. Denver has won three straight games and has allowed just 20 or less points in five of its past six. The team is playing stifling defense and actually was able to win against Pittsburgh thanks to a forced fumble in the fourth quarter.


The Patriots and Broncos have already met once this season and the Broncos won that game 30-24 as 2.5-point road underdogs.


The teams have, however, split victories both SU and ATS over the past three seasons. Favoring the Patriots in this game is the fact that Tom Brady is 11-5 SU in his 16 meetings with Peyton Manning in his career. New England is also 9-2 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in its previous game over the past two seasons.


LB Jerod Mayo (Shoulder) is the newest Patriots player to be lost for the season. The Broncos, meanwhile, will be entering this one at relatively close to full strength.


The Patriots have pretty much abandoned the run at this point in the season and it’s now going to be Tom Brady that will need to win this game for New England. Brady was brilliant against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, going 28-for-42 with 302 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. He also added a rushing touchdown for the Patriots as well.


One big bonus for New England’s quarterback was that Julian Edelman returned from injury. Edelman looked as good as new in the win, catching 10 passes for 100 yards. His ability to make plays allowed Rob Gronkowski to run his routes with a little less attention than he usually gets and it really helped. Gronkowski caught seven passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City.


Him and Edelman will now need to get open often against a very good Denver defense in order to win on Sunday. Brady should have little trouble throwing it, though. He had 280 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions the last time he faced this defense and that was in the snow.


One thing that will need to happen for the Patriots is that the defense must find a way to stop the run. The Broncos rushed for 179 yards and three touchdowns the last time these teams met and that can’t happen again. Denver struggles to pass the ball and the Patriots could really give themselves a good chance of winning by slowing down the running game.


The Broncos defeated the Steelers in the Divisional Round, but it was a rather uninspiring win for the team. Offensively, Denver is going to need to be a lot better in order to defeat this high-powered Patriots team. The guy that will really need to improve is Peyton Manning. Manning struggled against Pittsburgh, going 21-for-37 with 222 yard, no touchdowns and no interceptions.


Denver will need him to throw for at least a touchdown or two on Sunday. The Broncos are also going to need a big game from their running back duo of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. The two combined for 108 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh last week, but they also lit up the Patriots earlier in the season.


In that victory for the Broncos, Anderson and Hillman combined for 172 yards and three touchdowns. If they can find similar success against New England on Sunday then the Denver defense should be able to put the team in a position to win.


The Broncos are allowing just 18.5 PPG (4th in NFL) and have been extremely dominant as of late. They’ll need to find a way to slow down Tom Brady on Sunday, though, and that is no easy task for anybody.


ARIZONA CARDINALS (14-3) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (16-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET
NFC Championship Game
Sportsbook.ag Line: Carolina -3, Total: 48


The Cardinals and Panthers will be playing for a spot in the Super Bowl when the teams meet in Carolina on Sunday.


The Cardinals are coming off of a wild win over the Packers in the Divisional Round and will now be looking to ride the momentum of that victory into their meeting with the Panthers. Arizona allowed a Hail Mary touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Jeff Janis in the closing seconds of regulation last game and ended up winning on a shovel pass from Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald in the early stages of overtime.


The Panthers, meanwhile, did not have much of a challenge in their Divisional Round win over the Seahawks. Carolina jumped out to a 31-0 lead and ended up winning 31-24, as the team took its foot off the gas in the second half of the game. The Panthers will now need to regain their focus for their meeting with Arizona on Sunday.


The last time these teams met actually happened to be in the postseason and the Panthers won that game 27-16 as 5.5-point favorites. Carson Palmer was, however, injured and the Cardinals played that game with Ryan Lindley under center.


One thing that is heavily favoring Arizona in this game is that the team is 30-11 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.>75%) since 1992. The Panthers are, however, an insane 7-0 ATS in games with a line of +3 to -3 this season.


Arizona did not suffer any additional injuries against Green Bay, but the Panthers are likely to be without DE Jared Allen (Foot) in this game.


If the Cardinals are going to defeat the Panthers on Sunday then Carson Palmer is going to need to have an unbelievable game for Arizona.


Palmer threw for 349 yards with three touchdowns in the win over the Packers in the Divisional Round, but he also threw three picks in that game. He’ll need to take better care of the football, especially with Josh Norman playing corner for Carolina.


Something Palmer should do in this one is get rid of the ball quickly and find Larry Fitzgerald often. Fitzgerald was straight up dominant against the Packers last game, hauling in eight catches for 176 yards and a touchdown. He has now caught a touchdown in each of the past three games for Arizona.


Another guy that will need to play well for this team is David Johnson. Johnson rushed 15 times for 35 yards against Green Bay and also added six catches for 43 yards. He will need to be more effective between the tackles or it will be tough for the Cardinals to get things going in the passing game. Arizona uses the play action often and Johnson must put some fear into the Panthers defense in this one.


Defensively, the Cardinals have their work cut out for them with Cam Newton in town. They should be up for the challenge, though, as they allowed just 19.6 PPG (t-7th in NFL) this season.


The Panthers have consistently beaten up on their opponents this season, but things are going to get tough against a very good Cardinals team on Sunday. Carolina will need to play a complete game in this one, and that means it can’t let up at any point in the game. The team has shown that it can have lapses of poor play and last week’s second half against Seattle was a mess for the Panthers.


As always, this Carolina team is only going to go as far as Cam Newton takes it. Newton was 16-for-22 with 161 yards, one touchdown and no picks against the Seahawks last week. He’ll need to do a bit more in this one, but it would really help his team if he can continue to play mistake-free football.


The reason that Newton was able to take a backseat against Seattle was that Jonathan Stewart was running wild in the game. In his return from injury, Stewart rushed 19 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks. He showed serious explosiveness on one 59-yard run and it would be huge if he can get it going against Arizona.


Greg Olsen, who had six catches for 77 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks, will also need to show up for the Panthers in this game.


Defensively, the Panthers will need to shut down the Cardinals’ passing game in this one. That shouldn’t be too much of an issue, as Carolina allowed just 21 touchdowns this season (t-7th in NFL).

 

[CNOTES]

NFL ATS


NFL > (313) ARIZONA@ (314) CAROLINA | 2016-01-24 18:40:00 - 2016-01-24 18:40:00
Play ON CAROLINA against the spread in All games in games where the line is +3 to -3
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the this season (+7 units)


NFL > (313) ARIZONA@ (314) CAROLINA | 2016-01-24 18:40:00 - 2016-01-24 18:40:00
Play ON CAROLINA against the spread in All games in games played on a grass field
The record is 10 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+7.8 units)


----------------------


NFL MONEYLINE


NFL > (313) ARIZONA@ (314) CAROLINA | 2016-01-24 18:40:00 - 2016-01-24 18:40:00
Play ON ARIZONA using money line in All games in games where the money line is +130 to -150
The record is 15 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.8 units)


NFL > (313) ARIZONA@ (314) CAROLINA | 2016-01-24 18:40:00 - 2016-01-24 18:40:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games in games played on a grass field
The record is 28 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (+21.15 units)


-----------------------


NFL FIRST HALF


NFL > (313) ARIZONA@ (314) CAROLINA | 2016-01-24 18:40:00 - 2016-01-24 18:40:00
Play ON CAROLINA ?>in the first halfin All games in games played on a grass field
The record is 10 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+7.8 units)


NFL > (313) ARIZONA@ (314) CAROLINA | 2016-01-24 18:40:00 - 2016-01-24 18:40:00
Play ON CAROLINA ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 10 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+7.8 units)


-------------------


NFL TOTALS


NFL > (313) ARIZONA@ (314) CAROLINA | 2016-01-24 18:40:00 - 2016-01-24 18:40:00
Play OVER CAROLINA on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)


NFL > (311) NEW ENGLAND@ (312) DENVER | 2016-01-24 15:05:00 - 2016-01-24 15:05:00
Play OVER DENVER on the totalin All games in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points
The record is 37 Overs and 12 Unders for the since 1992 (+23.8 units)


NFL > (311) NEW ENGLAND@ (312) DENVER | 2016-01-24 15:05:00 - 2016-01-24 15:05:00
Play UNDER DENVER on the totalin Home games against conference opponents
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the this season (+7 units)

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Patriots (12-4) at Broncos (12-4)
Date: January 24, 2016 3:05 PM EDT

In November 2014, Tom Brady sent an email to a friend stating that Peyton Manning was in the "final chapter" of their storied rivalry while the four-time Super Bowl champion felt he had plenty left in the tank.


Though Manning laughed it off and Brady apologized for a message that was never intended to be mean-spirited - or public - the New England signal caller could be right.


After splitting their four postseason meetings, Sunday's AFC Championship game between Brady's Patriots and Manning's Broncos in Denver could be the last head-to-head matchup between these future Hall of Famers.


'It will be fun to play another Peyton Manning-led team,' said the 38-year-old Brady, who extends his NFL record with a 10th conference championship appearance and fifth in as many years.


Brady's emails were submitted as part of the Deflategate investigation in August, and in one sent six days before the Patriots' 43-21 win over Denver in November 2014, he wrote of Manning: "I've got another 7 or 8 years. He has 2. That's the final chapter."


Brady is 11-5 against his friend, but Manning, who turns 40 in March, has won the last two in the postseason - both in conference championships on his home field. The most recent came two years ago this week, a 26-16 victory in Denver as Manning threw for 400 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Brady went for 277 with a TD in the air and one on the ground in the fourth quarter, but the Broncos held the Patriots to 320 total yards.


"Tom is a good friend of mine, he'll always be a good friend of mine," said Manning, who is 3-0 in conference championship games since a 24-14 loss to Brady at New England with Indianapolis after the 2003 season.


Two seasons removed from the latest playoff meeting, their current roles and apparent longevity in the game appear much different.


Brady hasn't shown any real signs of slowing down. He topped 4,000 passing yards for a fifth straight season, led the NFL with 36 touchdowns and was picked off seven times despite dealing with injuries to multiple skill-position players and the offensive line.


'Doing the things that you've done to get yourself in this position are really important," Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said. "His preparation, his rest and treatment and getting his body ready and his mind right. He does a lot of the things every day to prepare for the next day.


'Even though these games have finality to them that some games in the regular season or preseason don't have, he approaches it the same way.'


Manning played in 10 games while dealing with various injuries, most notably a reported partially torn plantar fascia. He was relegated to a reserve role late in the season before replacing an ineffective Brock Osweiler in a 27-20 victory over San Diego in Week 17. Manning, who threw 17 interceptions overall and just one of his nine touchdown passes in six home games, appears to be more of a game manager as his future grows more uncertain.


But while his body might be letting him down, Manning's passion remains. Trailing 13-12 in the fourth quarter last Sunday against Pittsburgh, Manning confidently led the Broncos on a 13-play, 65-yard drive capped by C.J. Anderson's 1-yard TD run with 3 minutes remaining. Manning, who threw for 222 yards and was victimized by several dropped passes, hit Demaryius Thomas for the 2-point conversion en route to a 23-16 victory.


"(No.) 18 is a little more amped up (for the playoffs)," Anderson told the Broncos' official website. "Making sure we're more dialed in and detailed on this and that."


While this potential swan song between the two greats provides a made-for-television storyline, the outcome could be decided by how well Denver's top-ranked defense can stop Brady and offense that averaged an AFC-high 29.1 points.


As Manning watched, a Broncos defense that yielded 283.1 yards per contest held the Patriots to 2 of 13 on third downs in a 30-24 overtime win in Week 12 to end New England's hope of a perfect season and drop Brady to 2-6 in the Mile High City. The Broncos overcame a 21-7 fourth-quarter deficit and three TD passes from Brady, who didn't have receiver Julian Edelman and lost tight end Rob Gronkowski to a knee injury late.


Denver scored 17 points in the fourth to force overtime and Anderson rumbled for 48 of his season-high 113 rushing yards on the winning score.


'Our confidence is perfect,' Denver cornerback and ex-Patriot Aqib Talib said. 'We're good. We're playing a team who we beat earlier this year, we're at home, we're healthy. So, let's get it.'


Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo is lost for the season with a shoulder injury and key Broncos special teamer Omar Bolden was put on IR with a knee injury. Denver All-Pro second team cornerback Chris Harris Jr. is dealing with a shoulder injury, but made additional headlines this week by telling ESPN that the way to tackle Gronkowski is to "hit him in the knees."


Edelman returned from a 10-game absence due to a broken foot to catch 10 passes for 100 yards in a 27-20 divisional-round win over Kansas City. Brady threw for 302 yards and both of his TDs went to Gronkowski, who shook off his lingering knee issue to make seven receptions for 83.


'The more of those guys you have out there the harder it is to defend,' said coach Bill Belichick, who will match Tom Landry's NFL record by coaching in his 10th conference championship game. 'Tom knows what to do with them, he can find those matchups, that's what we need to do."


Gronkowski has 22 receptions for 283 yards with three touchdowns in his last three games against Denver, but he's listed as questionable for Sunday, along with Edelman.


After holding Pittsburgh to one touchdown and forcing a fumble prior to Manning's go-ahead scoring drive, Denver appears ready to step up again after improving to 10-3 in games decided by seven or fewer points.


'Our defense has been outstanding all season. They have led us to this point, let's make that clear,' Manning said. 'Each game, key defensive players stepped it up, but you have to be a good team to win these playoff games and you have to win as a team.'


Thomas was held to one catch for 36 yards against the Patriots in November, but had seven for 134 and a TD in the conference championship victory two years ago.


That was one of three losses in six road playoff games for Brady, two of which have come in Denver.


'It's pretty hard to get to this point," Brady said. "There's only four teams standing. Two of these teams have to go home. Hope we're not one of them.'

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Cardinals (13-3) at Panthers (15-1)
Date: January 24, 2016 6:40 PM EDT

Carson Palmer helplessly watched the Carolina Panthers force the Arizona Cardinals and their third-string quarterback into the worst offensive performance in playoff history last January.


It was a dark moment for the injured Palmer, whose competitive drive once led him to threaten retirement if he wasn't traded from a team he didn't feel could contend. He waited 12 years for the first playoff victory of his career and now gets a chance to go head-to-head with Cam Newton, whose MVP-caliber season has the Panthers on the brink of running the table at home.


Sunday night's NFC Championship game will be the first-ever meeting between Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks in the playoffs, with the winner carrying his franchise to its second Super Bowl appearance.


Palmer won all six of his starts for the Cardinals in 2014 but missed three games early in the season with a right shoulder injury and the final part after tearing his ACL. Arizona limped into the playoffs at 11-5 before the 7-8-1 Panthers held the Cardinals to a playoff-record low 78 total yards in a 27-16 victory.


Playing in all 16 regular-season games this time, Palmer finished with career highs of 35 touchdown passes and a 104.6 passer rating in guiding Arizona (14-3) to a league-high 408.3 yards per game and the NFC West title. He tossed three TDs in last week's wild 26-20 divisional playoff win over Green Bay, and hit Larry Fitzgerald on a 75-yard catch-and-run to set up a shovel pass to Fitzgerald that won it three plays into overtime.


It was a gratifying victory for Palmer, who won the Heisman at Southern California in 2002 and demanded a trade from Cincinnati after a disappointing 2010 season.


Palmer's right index finger injury - one he says isn't an issue - pales in comparison to the one that kept him out of last year's playoff meeting. Now he's hoping to help avenge that defeat and bring the Cardinals to their first Super Bowl since they lost to Pittsburgh after the 2008 season.


"As I haven't been playing in these games, I've studied it and watched it from afar and gone through it mentally," Palmer said. "As big as this game is, you can't make it bigger than it is. It's win or go home and there's plenty of implications, but we've got a pretty good recipe that wins games and we're going to stick with that recipe."


Carolina (16-1) has become a different team with the emergence of Newton. The Panthers, often known for their defense under coach Ron Rivera, averaged an NFL-high 31.3 points to rank just ahead of Arizona's 30.6.


Newton became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 35 touchdown passes and run for 10, and along with Palmer will garner plenty of MVP votes. Newton, the 2010 Heisman winner at Auburn, threw for 161 yards and a touchdown in last week's 31-24 win over Seattle.


Carolina is the only team to go unbeaten at home this season, but Arizona enters with a 7-1 road record.


'We prepared too much to get nervous,' Newton said. 'In some way, shape or form we played this game numerous times in our head, watched countless film, made this adjustment and that adjustment, so when you're put in the fire you already have what you need to do what you do. Nothing else needs to be done or said. No matter if we're up or we're down, just believe in the plan and keep going.'


Two touchdown runs from Jonathan Stewart, a Newton TD pass to Greg Olsen and Luke Kuechly's pick-6 gave the Panthers a seemingly insurmountable halftime lead last week, but the Seahawks held them scoreless in the second half.


That isn't the first time Carolina has suffered a close call. It blew a 17-point lead against Indianapolis before winning in overtime, led Green Bay by 23 in the fourth before winning by eight and needed a field goal as time expired to beat the New York Giants after coughing up a 28-point lead.


'I'll be honest, I get it, I understand,' Rivera said. "But, shoot, we won those football games and look at who we played against. Am I concerned? Yeah. But are these things correctable and fixable? Most certainly. Let's stay focused on what we did - we won the football game.'


Stewart is expected to play despite dealing with an ankle injury suffered against the Seahawks. Defensive end Jared Allen returned to practice Thursday despite having a broken bone in his foot and was considered at least a possibility to play, but Rivera ruled him out on Friday.


Allen wasn't happy, saying he was "ready to rock." Kony Ealy will start in his place.


Arizona had its own issues closing out the Packers last week. Aaron Rodgers completed a 60-yard pass on 4th-and-20 with 55 seconds left before throwing a 41-yard Hail Mary to send the game into overtime.


Fitzgerald, who finished with a franchise playoff-record 176 receiving yards, saved the game in OT. Coach Bruce Arians knows the Cardinals can't be that vulnerable against the Panthers, especially early.


Arizona blitzes more than any team in the league, and it likely will try to put Newton under pressure from the start even though Carolina's QB threw a league-high 18 TDs in blitz situations this season. Newton wasn't at his best in last year's playoff meeting, finishing 18 of 32 for 198 yards, two touchdowns and an interception while rushing for 35 yards.


'It's kind of like back in college, getting ready for the wishbone,' Arians said. "You don't see the quarterback in this league run (with that) power very often. So they give you so many different, unique sets that you have to account for.'


Getting the ground game going will be a priority for the Cardinals, too. They rushed for 27 yards in a loss to Seattle in the regular-season finale before finishing with 40 last week, and rookie David Johnson has averaged 2.8 yards on 35 carries over his last three.


The playing surface in Carolina has been a talking point all week, but neither team seemed to have an issue running there in the divisional playoffs. Stewart finished with 106 of the Panthers' 144 rushing yards, and the Seahawks averaged 6.5 yards on 12 carries.


'I don't care if we're playing in a parking lot,' Arians said. 'It's the championship. Be aware of it and have the proper shoes.'


Arizona won 33-13 in Charlotte on the way to its only previous Super Bowl, as Fitzgerald finished with 166 yards while setting the playoff record he broke last week. The Panthers also went unbeaten at home that season.

 

[CNOTES]

Broncos, Pats overcome obstacles
January 23, 2016


DENVER (AP) One team went without the services of its Hall of Fame-bound quarterback for more than a third of the season, and when he was available, he was a shell of his former self.


The other had its quarterback all season but faced week after week of injuries to his pass catchers, offensive linemen and running backs.


Often, teams with those story lines are studying the draft board this time of year. But these are the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots - two franchises built to overcome problems big and small. And once again, they find themselves on the verge of the Super Bowl.


Sunday's AFC title game is being billed as ''Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady, Part 17,'' and many believe it could be the last game between the two best quarterbacks of their generation.


It's also a matchup of two franchises that make a habit of playing in January because of the way they're built and run. New England is seeking its ninth AFC title; nobody has won more. Denver is going for No. 8, which would put the Broncos in a tie with the Patriots and Steelers.


The secret to New England's success?


''Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. It's Tom Brady and Bill Belichick,'' said Aqib Talib of the Broncos, who played cornerback for the Patriots two years ago when these teams last met for the AFC title.


Talib left as a free agent and signed with Denver after that season. Nobody was surprised. Cornerbacks, even outstanding ones, are as disposable as dish towels in New England. Last year, the Patriots won with four-time All-Pro Darrelle Revis, but he plays for the Jets now. It's like that at pretty much every position - except one.


''They're moving guys around. They still have the same kind of guy,'' said Broncos offensive coordinator Rick Dennison. ''Whether they develop them, go find them, or whatever. It seems like `50' (defensive end Rob Ninkovich) has been around there for 15 years. Or a guy just like him.''


For the record, Ninkovich has been there since 2009, which makes him a long-timer by Patriots standards. They do not stick with players for loyalty's sake, or because of what they did in the past. Among those who have left for other teams after helping the Patriots to the Super Bowl: Randy Moss, Ty Law, Wes Welker, Asante Samuel, Adam Vinatieri. It's a longer list than that.


This season, the Patriots have started the same five offensive linemen in consecutive games a grand total of once. Elsewhere on the offense, top receiver Julian Edelman missed seven games. Danny Amendola and All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski both missed time. Running back has been a carousel, most recently occupied by veteran Steven Jackson, who didn't sign with New England until Dec. 22.


But so long as No. 12 is lining up under center, the Patriots rarely skip a beat.


''No quarterback has been able to throw the ball over 50 times a game and win, and he's done that consistently,'' said Broncos defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who has held six jobs for six different teams since 2000, the year Belichick was hired in New England.


Over the past three years, Brady is 9-3 when he throws 50 or more times.


''That shows you how great a passer he is, how many mistakes that he doesn't make, where everybody else that's had to throw the ball that much gets beat,'' Phillips said.


The Broncos, meanwhile, were long regarded as one of the top franchises in the NFL until a lull that briefly turned them into a laughingstock in the late 2000s. The two main figures through that drama were Tim Tebow and Josh McDaniels, who now works as Belichick's offensive coordinator.


John Elway returned, this time in the front office, and quickly restored order.


The Broncos built a state-of-the-art practice facility for more than $35 million and spent lavishly on free agents to get back into the mix for the Super Bowl, which was a common destination when Elway was playing.


The most important transaction, of course, was the signing of Manning. But it wasn't until his undoing this year - a foot injury cost him six-plus games, and before that he led the league with 17 interceptions - that it became clear the strength of the foundation had been re-established.


Denver's victories with Manning either absent or compromised have come courtesy of a newly designed running game and a top-ranked defense filled with playmakers. Von Miller reached 50 career sacks faster than anyone but Reggie White and Derrick Thomas. Chris Harris Jr., has gone from rookie free agent to second-team All-Pro. DeMarcus Ware led the team with 7 1-2 sacks this year and is a game away from the Super Bowl for the first time in his 11 seasons.


Elway hired coach Gary Kubiak with the idea that his ex-teammate would help him transition from the Manning era to whatever comes next. That a ''transition'' year has the Broncos a game from the Super Bowl speaks to the roster he built.


''There always is a transition period, because unfortunately, these great quarterbacks get older,'' Elway said. ''I think we've tried to work toward that. We've tried, with Gary coming in this year, to be a little more focused on the running game and get a little more balanced to help Peyton out.''


So, instead of some story about a relative newbie making the Super Bowl, as we'll hear when either Carolina or Arizona makes it in the NFC, this will be a story of franchises that have found a way to stay in the hunt for years, even decades.


It's the Broncos, trying to coax Manning to a Super Bowl in what could be his last hurrah.


And it's the Patriots, who expect to be on the doorstep as long as Brady is taking snaps.


''It's so hard to be consistent in this league,'' Patriots receiver Matthew Slater said. ''I think that's something that every franchise hopes to establish, is some consistency and stability, and we've been really fortunate to have that here.''

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Final 4
January 22, 2016


When the AFC and NFC Championship Game lines were both posted with 3's in Las Vegas on Sunday, one game looked out of whack with a road favorite while the other looked solid. Many observers thought it would the Panthers side that would attract the most action, but that hasn't been the case.


"It's been a dead game for us," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne who has kept Carolina -3 all week.


Osborne said public parlay money has favored Carolina as expected, but the game he's been keeping his eye on the most is the Patriots -3 at Denver.


"I thought the game that we'd be moving first would be the Panthers, but the way the action is going so far I may have to go to -3.5 with the Patriots."


The number '3' is the most key number in the NFL, so it'll take some heavy one-sided action to move off the number, but Osborne can see it happening. "Right now, I'm about a 25 percent towards our threshold at the number before moving to 3.5."


Osborne says he takes about four times the limit at -3 than he does for regular numbers before moving off it. His chain of sports books are the only ones in the city that use flat numbers exclusively.


On Friday, the South Point was the only sports book in town with the Patriots at 3-flat. Those that like the Patriots know where to go so it might not be too long before Osborne hits his threshold forcing a number change.


Books like the Westgate, Stations, Wynn, William Hill, Aliante and Golden Nugget have the Patriots -3 -120. Coast Resorts is using -3.5 +105 while MGM Resorts is at -3.5 +110.


"We were at -3.5 +105, but a professional bettor came in today and laid -120 taking +3.5 with Denver," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback.


Seeing a wise guy lay extra juice to take +3.5 with the Broncos is very telling, but Stoneback says they welcomed the action because of being so lopsided with New England money.


"Before we went to -3.5 -105 on Thursday we had a 3-to-1 cash ratio laying -3 -120 with the Patriots and a 5-to-1 ticket count differential."


Public parlays have also been all Patriots.


"We don't have hardly anything with Denver," Stoneback said. "It's about a 10-to-1 ratio on cash taken in with the Patriots. They (public) like what they've saw out of them last week against the Chiefs."


The only Denver action the MGM books have been getting is on teasers taking +9.5.


Just like the South Point, the Cardinals-Panthers game has been slow moving at the 10 MGM books across the strip.


"We're evenly balanced on straight bets and have a 7-to-5 edge on parlays with the Panthers. We've taken in twice as much action on the Patriots-Broncos game," said Stoneback.


MGM books have a rooting interest in the Panthers to advance because of their great position on Super Bowl futures. Next best for them would be the Patriots to win it all.


Caesars teasers taken down


On Monday we mentioned that a few books were reviewing their position on teasers because of a 15-1 all-way teaser win for bettors during the divisional round that crushed the books. Caesars Entertainment's chain of books -- Harrah's -- got so rattled with last weeks losses that they didn't even wait for the season end to make changes -- they cut teaser wagering off immediately in a knee-jerk reaction.


If I had to pick one chain of books that would pull a move like this mid-stream, the Harrah's brand would certainly be it. For goodness sake, wait for the season to end. Do some analytics on what the proper prices should be in the playoffs and regular season and then implement the changes next season.


Funny thing is, both games are 3's and it's not an attractive position for teaser bettors that like the favorites like last week was with a couple of 7's. So not only did Harrah's shoot themselves in the foot from a public relations standpoint, but they bailed on a week that sets up more favorably for the books. Well done!

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 24


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS




NE at DEN 03:05 PM


DEN +3.0 BEST BET


O 44.5 BEST BET




ARI at CAR 06:40 PM


CAR -3.0 BEST BET


U 47.0 BEST BET

 

[CNOTES]

NFL oddsmakers have Panthers favored for Super Bowl 50 after impressive win


Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers have opened as clear favorites for Super Bowl 50 after a 49-15 drubbing of Arizona in the NFC title game.


The Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos, both No. 1 seeds, have made it to historic Super Bowl 50. But it sure feels like that old bit on “Sesame Street,” doesn’t it?


“One of these things is not like the other. One of these things just doesn’t belong.”


Carolina, the top team all season long in the NFC, sure looked like all that and more on a Sunday that couldn’t have featured a larger dichotomy of conference championship games. One game was an absolute blowout, the other an ugly nailbiter right down to the wire.


The Panthers led No. 2 seed Arizona 17-0 by the end of the first quarter and never let off the accelerator, boatracing the Cardinals 49-15 as a 3-point home chalk in the NFC title game. Carolina is now a robust 17-1 SU, with a stout 13-5 ATS mark to go with it heading into the Super Bowl on Feb. 7 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.


Waiting for the Panthers will be the Denver Broncos, who slogged to a 20-18 victory over No. 2 seed New England, getting the outright win as a 3-point home underdog in AFC final. After leading 17-9 at halftime and looking somewhat capable on offense behind Peyton Manning, Denver mustered just three second-half points, yet somehow managed to beat the defending Super Bowl champions.


The Pats got a late TD to make it 20-18, but the 2-point try failed, as a missed extra point early in the game came back to haunt New England big time. The Broncos, riding a defense that has been as amazing as the offense has been dismal, are 14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS.


John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, set the line at Panthers -4.


“You’ve got the top-ranked defense in the league against the most dazzling offense we’ve seen in years. Hopefully, this matchup will live up to the Super Bowl 50 aura,” Lester said. “Bettors have been down on Denver all year, so we felt comfortable making Carolina a favorite higher than -3.


“It’s likely we’ll see many of the very recreational bettors backing Denver because of the Peyton Manning legacy. Everyone wants to see him ride off into the sunset.”


Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, didn’t let Carolina’s performance sway him quite as much, opening the Panthers as 3.5-point chalk.


“I was thinking 3 at halftime of the Carolina game, but the Panthers’ play has elevated my and the bettors’ appreciation of them,” Avello said. “It’s a neutral site, and Peyton Manning is the opponent, along with the top defense, so I didn’t want to get too carried away. But the Panthers have been fast starters in their games as of late and difficult to slow down.”


Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of race and sports for the Westgate’s Superbook, said his shop got an early jump by posting a line well before the Carolina-Arizona game ended.


“We put Carolina up at -5.5, and it was quickly bet down,” Kornegay said. “We took some larger plays on Denver, and now Carolina is down to -4.”


The Wynn posted a total of 45.5, while the Superbook was at 44.5. Up next for those shops and many others: Super Bowl proposition bets.


“The line’s up, and it’s on to the props,” Avello said.

 

[CNOTES]

Super Bowl 50 Opener
January 24, 2016


The top two seeds remaining will meet in Super Bowl 50 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California on February 7. Both Denver and Carolina held serve at home in the conference title games as the Broncos held off the Patriots and the Panthers routed the Cardinals. The Broncos are headed to their second Super Bowl in three years with Peyton Manning at quarterback, while the Panthers are back in the Super Bowl for the first time since losing to New England in 2003.


Favorites have rolled so far in the playoffs by winning eight of the first 10 games, but the underdogs are 5-4-1 ATS, including Denver’s victory as a three-point ‘dog against New England. The ‘under’ cashed in six of 10 postseason games, as the Broncos finished ‘under’ the total in each of their two playoff victories.


Super Bowl 50 from Santa Clara (2/7/16)


Line: Panthers -4 (45 ½)


Movement: Carolina opened up as four-point favorites at the LVH SuperBook at the Westgate Las Vegas Resort, while CG Technologies put the Panthers out at 3 ½ before moving it to 4.


Offshore book 5Dimes opened Carolina at -4 as well, with the total of 45 ½. CG and William Hill each put out totals of 45, as a majority of books are hovering between 45 and 45 ½ on their totals.


Betting Notes: The Panthers and Broncos didn't meet in the regular season, but these teams last hooked up in 2012. Denver routed Carolina at Bank of America Stadium, 36-14 as 3 ½-point favorites, while game finished 'over' the total of 46 ½.


Neither of these teams have played a regular season or playoff game at Levi’s Stadium, while Carolina is headed to the Pacific Time Zone for the second time this season. Both teams posted perfect 4-0 records in interconference play, as Denver has won six of their last eight games against NFC opponents since losing to Seattle in Super Bowl XLVIII.


Super Bowl Betting Notes:


-- The Panthers are the first NFC South team to play in the Super Bowl since New Orleans in 2010.


-- Denver owns a 2-5 SU/ATS record in Super Bowls, while being listed as an underdog for the fifth time.


-- Manning is playing in his fourth Super Bowl, posting a 1-2 SU/ATS record as he lost in last Super Bowl appearance two seasons ago to the Seahawks, 43-8.


-- In their lone Super Bowl appearance, the Panthers lost on the final play of Super Bowl XXXVIII to the Patriots, 32-29. Carolina cashed as seven-point underdogs, while the total of 37 ½ easily hit.


-- The NFC has won four of the last six Super Bowls, while the 'under' is 4-1 the last five Super Bowls.

 

[CNOTES]

Super Bowl 50 Betting Update
January 25, 2016




The VegasInsider.com Super Bowl 50 Betting Update will provide daily betting updates from Micah Roberts in Las Vegas on this year's NFL finale between Carolina and Denver, which is set for Sunday, Feb. 7, 2016.


Update - 1.25.16 - 12:05 a.m. ET


Most Las Vegas sports books opened the Carolina Panthers as 4-point favorites over the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50, a number that was elevated to extreme measures based on power ratings.


"We opened Carolina -5.5," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay, "but early Denver action dropped the number."


The Westgate settled at Carolina -4 after all the early wagers with a total at 45. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White had Denver 1-point better on a neutral field than Carolina before Sunday’s games.


When the Panthers demolished the Cardinals, 49-15, the public was all in with Carolina with early wagers.


"We wanted to be high with our number knowing the public would take Carolina," said MGM Resorts sports books VP Jay Rood who opened -4.5. "So far we’re at a 6-to-1 ratio on tickets bet with the Panthers and we’re at a 4-to-1 ratio with cash taken in."


The good news for the sports books is that the game isn’t a ‘3’ which means they have lots of wiggle room to maneuver.


The bad news is that they know the majority public wagers will be on Carolina and its possible that if the wagers become too one-sided that from the public that it could rise to -6 passing the dead numbers of -5 and -5.5.


However, sharps showed that they liked Denver at +5.5 at the Westgate. But remember that "sharp money" pales in comparison to the overall handle is wagered in the Super Bowl.


We’ll be updating everything that happens in Las Vegas regarding the Super Bowl spread, so be sure to check us out. Props are expected to open this Friday (1/29/16).

 

[CNOTES]

Panthers LB Davis expected to play in SB
January 25, 2016


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) All-Pro linebacker Thomas Davis had surgery Monday morning on his broken right forearm, but is expected to play in the Super Bowl on Feb. 7.


''My understanding is if everything goes well it is something he can mostly certainly play with,'' Panthers coach Ron Rivera said Monday. ''So we are excited about that possibility.''


Rivera did not know which forearm bone Davis broke.


He said the 11-year NFL veteran may need to wear a brace on his arm similar to the one worn by New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski.


Davis broke his arm in the second quarter of Carolina's 49-15 win over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday in the NFC championship. Davis said after the game he fully expected to play in the Super Bowl in about two weeks.


Rivera said if anybody can play through the pain, it would be Davis, who has battled back from three torn ACLs in the same knee to play at an All-Pro level.


''He said (he was going to play) with the same type of sincerity he said to me when he told me he was coming back from the third ACL,'' Rivera said. ''There is something about his conviction and I think that's what makes him who he is today. So I have no doubt that as long as everything continues to heal the way it's supposed to, he'll be out there.''


Players were not made available for comment on Monday.


Davis' wife posted an Instagram photo of her husband wearing a hospital shower cap on Monday and thanked well-wishers.


Davis said after the game Sunday he planned to play in the Super Bowl.


''It hurt. It was painful,'' Davis said Sunday. ''At the same time I believe in our training staff and I believe in the process. If it is at all possible I know they are going to get me back and I will do my part to make sure I'm ready.''


Davis was dominant early in the NFC title game recording six tackles, including two for losses. He had several jarring hits that set the tone for the Panthers to build a 17-0 lead.


But he broke his forearm while trying to break up a pass in the second quarter and was taken to the locker room for observations. He returned to the sideline in the second half wearing a sling on his right arm.


Even without Davis, the Panthers managed to finish the game with seven takeaways - six of those on defense. They forced Carson Palmer into four interceptions and forced two fumbles in an impressive defensive performance.


When asked what makes him believe he can play with a broken arm, Davis replied, ''I believe in me.''


''This is something that if it comes down to a pain tolerance and playing through it, I will be there. I guarantee to you.''


Davis' teammates praised his toughness and said it's hard to imagine anyone trying to tell him he couldn't play in his first Super Bowl after spending his entire career trying to reach this pinnacle.


''I don't put it past Thomas playing,'' defensive tackle Kawann Short said. ''Three ACLs, broken fingers. It hasn't stopped him before. I think they will have to take all of his jerseys away - all five of them, and even the ones at home.''


Rivera said safety Roman Harper is scheduled to see an eye doctor soon after being forced to leave the game on Sunday. The fifth-year coach said he won't have any more information on his status until after the meeting.


The coach also said All-Pro center Ryan Kalil's knee is ''fine'' after leaving two series in the first half Sunday. Kalil returned in the second half to finish the game.

 

[CNOTES]

Broncos heap praise on Panthers
January 26, 2016


ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) Nothing but compliments for Cam Newton after completely bashing Tom Brady.


And no, this nasty Denver Broncos defense hasn't suddenly turned soft. They're simply playing nice with the Super Bowl still two weeks away.


The pleasantries seem tame after all the trash talking Denver did before the New England game. The Broncos called Brady a crybaby for complaining to the officials over calls. They also accused tight end Rob Gronkowski of constantly pushing off to get open.


On Sunday, they backed up their words by constantly harassing Brady in a 20-18 win over the Patriots to earn a spot in Super Bowl 50 against Carolina (17-1).


Now, the Broncos (14-4) are pulling out the respect card, especially when it comes to Newton.


''He's probably the most dangerous quarterback in the NFL right now,'' Pro Bowl cornerback Aqib Talib said.


Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware heaped plenty of praise on Newton, too.


''You can't rush timid because if you do that, he's one of those pocket quarterbacks that can get the ball deep down the field,'' said Ware, whose team will wear their white road uniforms on Feb. 7 in their record-tying eighth Super Bowl appearance. ''You have to be able to get pressure on him, but you have to be decisive on how you're rushing. You can't be a wild rusher.''


The Broncos certainly went wild against Brady, hitting him 23 times, all the more amazing given how quickly Brady usually gets rid of the ball.


And no one was in his face more often than Von Miller, who had 2 1/2 sacks and an interception on a pass intended for Gronkowski.


''We go out there and the scoreboard talks for itself,'' Miller said.


So good was defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' scheme that after the game, coach Gary Kubiak felt he had to give out several game balls.


''We've got to come up with a great game plan against them like we did against New England,'' Talib said. ''We may switch it up here and there a little bit, but for the most part, we're going to get pressure on the quarterback and cover.''


The Broncos are facing a different kind of QB in Newton. He's not like Brady, who will find seam after seam for big play after big play. Instead, Newton will take off if the pressure is too intense. In a 49-15 win over Arizona during the NFC title game, Newton rushed for two TDs and threw for two more.


''Super unique,'' Talib said. ''I've never seen anybody who is that size. He can sit in the pocket and throw it, and then he can run, run wide out. He probably could play any position in the NFL that you wanted to. He's definitely a unique player.''


Kubiak saw Newton last season when he was offensive coordinator in Baltimore. Newton completed 14 of 25 passes for 197 yards that day but was under duress for much of the game. Newton was sacked twice as the Ravens won 38-10.


The Broncos first-year head coach wouldn't mind a repeat performance.


''Having to tackle him out in the open field, having to defend the quarterback runs and those types of things will be something different for us,'' Kubiak said. ''It's nice to have a couple of weeks.''

 

[CNOTES]

50 Super Betting Angles
January 31, 2016


Super Bowl L between the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos will be the 50th installment of the big game on Sunday Feb. 7, 2015 from Santa Clara, California.


Before you start your handicapping the matchup and prop bets, you might want to check out 50 angles that our Editorial staff have uncovered for this year's Super Bowl.


1- Super Bowl 50 will be the first pro football finale that features two former #1 NFL draft picks squaring off.


2 – In the last 10 Super Bowls, the NFC has only been favored 2 times and they’ve gone 1-1 in those games with San Francisco losing and Green Bay winning, by just five points. Going back 20 years, the NFC is 4-2 SU but 1-3-2 ATS in the role as a favorite.


3- There have been three NFL players that have won a Super Bowl as a head coach and as a player – Mike Ditka, Tom Flores, Tony Dungy. Carolina head coach Ron Rivera would be the fourth since he was part of Chicago’s victory in 1985.


4 – Denver has been installed as an underdog four times this season and it’s gone 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. The lone loss came in Week 15 when it lost to Pittsburgh 34-27 but covered as a 7 ½-point underdog.


5 – The Broncos own a 2-5 record in the Super Bowl and holds the record for the most setbacks in the finale with five.


6 – Denver has registered six non-offensive touchdowns this season, four of them coming via interceptions. Carolina has accounted for six “pick-six” scores from its defense and has seven total non-offensive scores.


7 – Prior to this matchup, there have been seven Super Bowls since 2001 that featured head coaches meeting in the finale with no SB experience. The AFC has gone 5-2 during this span.


8 – The Broncos have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games when playing with a week of rest and that includes two wins this season – Week 8 vs. Green Bay (29-10) and the Divisional Playoffs against Pittsburgh (23-17). The ‘under’ has produced a 7-3 mark in these games.


9 – In 18 games, the Panthers have held nine of their opponents to 17 points or less.


10 – Denver has won 10 straight road games played in California, divided equally against the Raiders and Chargers. More importantly, the Broncos have covered all 10 while the ‘under’ has gone 7-3.


11- The Broncos have seen the ‘under’ go 11-6-1 this season, which includes a perfect 2-0 mark in the playoffs.


12 – This will be the 12th Super Bowl played in California and the first since 2003. Favorites have gone 7-4 both SU and ATS in these games and the ‘over’ is 9-1.


13 – Carolina has gone 13-6-1 versus the AFC since 2011 with Cam Newton under center. They only faced the Broncos once and Denver captured a 36-14 victory in the 2012 regular season.


14- Cam Newton has averaged 8.5 carries per game this season, with 14 rushes being the most this season which came in Week 1 at Jacksonville.


15 – Prop bettors should note that Carolina QB Cam Newton has been held under 21 completions in 15 of his 18 games this season.


16 – The Carolina offense has been lights out this season but the defense has been just as good. The Panthers have surrendered 16.3 PPG in their last three games, and 19.3 PPG overall.


17 – Broncos QB Peyton Manning has tossed 17 interceptions this season, the most in his four years with Denver. Carolina led the league with 24 picks.


18 – Denver’s defense was one of the most consistent units this season, both home away. Denver surrendered 18.2 points per game at home and 18.5 PPG on the road.


19 – Since 2008, this will be just the 19th time that Peyton Manning has been installed as an underdog in a game. In the first 18 games, he’s 9-9 SU and 11-7 ATS.


20 – Bettors have seen underdogs cover the point-spread in 20 of the 49 Super Bowls and 13 of those clubs pulled off outright victories.


21 – Super Bowl teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 1-22 SU and 3-19-1 ATS. The lone winner that failed to eclipse the 21-point plateau was the N.Y. Giants, who recently beat the Patriots 17-14 in SBXLII.


22 – Since 2005, Peyton Manning has accounted for 22 rushes in the postseason and he’s only scored one touchdown.


23 – In the first 49 Super Bowls, 23 of them have been decided by 14 points or more.


24 – When Cam Newton scores a rushing touchdown, the Panthers have scored at least 24 points in eight of their nine games this season.


25 – In the first 25 Super Bowls, the favorites have gone 17-8 against the spread and the ‘under’ went 13-11 in those games. In the last 24, the underdogs have produced a 12-9-2 ATS mark with last year’s result not counting since the line was pick ‘em.


26 – Denver QB Peyton Manning has played in 26 postseason games and owns a 13-13 record.


27a - Super Bowl teams that have scored at least 27 points are 26-2 SU and 23-4-1 ATS. The two teams that failed to win were Carolina (29) in SBXXXVIII and San Francisco (31) in SBXLVII.


27b – Quarterbacks have captured the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player award 27 times, which includes five of the last six years. Cam Newton (5/8) and Peyton Manning (3/1) are the top two betting choices for this year’s popular prop wager.


28 - How much of a drop-off has Denver’s offense had this season? In 2014, the team averaged 28.9 PPG comparted to 22.1 this season. To make you really notice Peyton’s regression, he averaged 30.4 PPG in his debut season in Denver and an eye-opening 36.4 PPG during the 2013 Super Bowl run.


29 - The Broncos have lost by an average margin of 29.6 points per game in their five Super Bowl setbacks, the largest deficit coming by 45 points to San Francisco in Super Bowl XXIV.


30 – The Panthers were installed as road favorites seven times this season and they went 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS while averaging 30 PPG.


31 - The highest point total scored by a losing team in a Super Bowl was 31, which happened twice. San Francisco dropped a 34-31 decision to Baltimore in SBXLVII (2013) and Dallas came up short to Pittsburgh 35-31 in SBXIII (1979).


32 – Carolina averaged 32.2 PPG this season, ranked first in the league. Was this surprising? It was certainly out of the ordinary considering the Panthers averaged 21.3 PPG in 2014 and 22.3 PPG two years ago.


33 – The Panthers led the league with an average of 33.6 rushing attempts per game and they also led the NFL with rushing first downs and rushing touchdowns.


34 – The Steelers dropped 34 points on the Broncos in Week 15, which was the most allowed by Denver this season. In that game, Pittsburgh scored 21 in the second-half and only managed to score 16 in the rematch game in the Divisional Playoff round.


35 – The most points ever scored in a quarter of a Super Bowl was 35 by the Redskins in their 42-10 victory over the Broncos in SBXXII.


36 – Since the NFC South was created in 2002, the division has sent three teams to the Super Bowl and they’ve averaged 36 PPG in the finale. They’ve gone 2-1, the lone loser being Carolina in SBXXXVIII to the Patriots, 32-29.


37 – Denver has kicked 37 field goals this season, seven of those 3-pointers coming in the postseason. Carolina has posted 33 field goals in 18 games.


38 – The last Super Bowl winner to score 38 points was in 1985 when San Francisco defeated Miami 38-16 in SBXIX, which was coincidentally the last finale that took place from Northern California (Stanford Stadium).


39 – Carolina racked up a league-high 39 takeaways (24 interceptions, 15 fumbles) this season and also led the league with a plus-20 turnover margin. Denver was minus-4 (31-27) in turnovers on the season.


40 – Cam Newton has attempted 40 or more passes in two games this season. The Panthers won those games, but both victories came on the road and by three points against the Saints and Giants.


41 – Denver’s passing offense had 41 plays this season for 20-plus yards and coincidentally the defense surrendered 41 plays of the same yardage to opponents. Carolina’s offense (53) and defense (53) also put up identical numbers, but they were a tad higher.


42 – Carolina had a net punting average of 42.7 yards per game this season, which was ranked fifth in the NFL. Just barely ahead of them was Denver, who had an average of 43.4 YPG. Carolina allowed two return touchdowns while the Broncos allowed one.


43 – The Panthers converted 43% of their third down conversions, which was ranked fifth in the NFL. Meanwhile, Denver was ranked 27th in the league with a 34% conversion rate.


44 – Carolina racked up 44 sacks in the regular season and it added to that number in the postseason with an additional eight in two games. Denver led the league with 59 sacks, seven of them coming in the playoffs.


45 – There have only been two Super Bowl totals listed at 45 and the ‘over/under’ went 1-1 in those games.


46 – Peyton Manning owns a 46-21 all-time record against NFC opponents, which includes a 13-4 record the last four seasons with Denver.


47 – The longest run by the Panthers this season was 47 yards, which came by quarterback Cam Newton. The Broncos have two players – Ronnie Hillman (72) and C.J. Anderson (48) – that have topped that number.


48 – There has only been one Super Bowl where the combined score has landed exactly on 48 points. This occurred in SBXLIV when the Saints defeated the Colts 31-17 in 2010.


49 – Since QB Peyton Manning joined the Denver Broncos, the franchise has captured 49 victories.


50 – Cam Newton has accounted for 50 total touchdowns this season, which is the same amount of scores he accumulated when he won the Heisman Trophy award at Auburn.

 

[CNOTES]

Super Bowl 50 Betting Update
January 30, 2016




Update - 1.30.16 - 9:05 p.m. ET


Wynn sports book director John Avello said earlier in the week that he was looking for a sign that Broncos money was out there and when he moved the Panthers from -5.5 to -6 on Friday, he got that sign with a Denver wager he described as a high six-figure wager. The wager pushed the Wynn book back to -5.5 on Saturday afternoon.


"There's still a long ways to go -- we'll take 80 percent of overall wagers on the game Saturday and Sunday, " said Avello. "We're still long on the Panthers right now, but it wouldn't be out of the ordinary to see our position completely change from the first week. It happened last year."
The public is still loving the Panthers, but the frenzied pace seen when the number was first posted has leveled off. Like Avello said, there is a long ways to go and things could change drastically. It's apparent that some large money is willing to show their hand with Denver and +6 is acceptable. Other sharp outfits are still hoping +6.5 or +7 shows.


A solid indicator that Broncos money is still out there waiting is the action the South Point took on the Broncos money-line that dropped them from +215 to +180 (Panthers now -125). At the time, +215 was the highest price available in Las Vegas. Several books still have the Broncos at +200.


If looking to play the Broncos, it's quite possible that +6 may be the best number you'll find. We'll keep following this story all the way till kickoff.


Update - 1.29.16 - 5:15 p.m. ET


Las Vegas is still one week away before they'll see the bulk of all its Super Bowl action -- 80 percent expected from next Friday night through gameday, but the small sampling of wagers being made already is a great indicator of what those final few days of wagers will have in store.


Yes, it's all Panthers and will probably continue to be, but can it continue at a 94 percent clip? That's the cash ratio William Hill's 104 sports books across Nevada have seen on the game so far through Friday. That's a ratio like we'd see if the Patriots were laying only -2.5 at home against the Jaguars. The actual ticket count at William Hill is 85 percent on the Panthers.


In most Super Bowls, the favorite gets bet with the spread and the underdog is bet heavily on the money-line. So far, William Hill has seen 62 percent of the wagers on the Broncos at +190, but 97 percent of the actual cash has been on the Panthers (-220) with $623,142 coming on one Panthers bet at -190 on Monday.


With those type of slanted numbers, it's curious to see William Hill books so low from a comparative standpoint around Las Vegas, but it's a long way to go and they've only seen a fraction of what's about to come.


The consensus money-line price of Panthers -240 on Thursday was very comparable to a standard price we'd see at most spreads at -5.5 during the regular season, which is odd because the Super Bowl money-line price on the dog is always lower to protect against the masses who usually play the dog to win outright -- they've been correct the past few years.


Station Casinos, who sit at -6, have the Panthers -220/+180. MGM Resorts, who moved to -5.5 to -5.5 -120 on Thursday, have it -240/+200. The South Point is at -6 and have a money-line at -240/+215.


"We're even with action on the Denver money-line since going to +215," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne who is dealing the best Broncos money-line price in town. "We're also a little high on the Panthers since we went to -6."


That's a lot different report we've been getting from the South Point and Osborne all week where it was all Panthers action similar to what William Hill has seen.


While it may seem hard to believe that the Panthers party train at the bet windows may slow everywhere throughout town, historically, it's not unusual to see momentum slowed during the second week before kickoff as sentiment for the other team begins to show.


People remember what they saw last, which was Carolina in a 49-15 wipe out of Arizona while Denver struggled 20-18 at home against the Patriots, but a week later they start to find any kind of small reason to support the underdog. The main reason is usually because the dog winning outright pays more than the favorite on the point-line or money-line.


We'll have the media with all its mega-coverage next week. The Broncos defense will be a major story, as will Peyton Manning possibly playing in his last game. For the 55-year old lady visiting Las Vegas from Iowa City, who never wagers, she's bound to throw $10 on a nice young man like Manning.


Update - 1.28.16 - 3:25 p.m. ET


The Atlantis Reno was the first Nevada sports book to move Carolina from a 5.5-point favorite to -6 on Thursday morning and two other prominent Las Vegas bet shops followed suit a few hours later.


“We had to make the move (to -6), it’s been all Panthers action at any number we’ve had it at,” said Stratosphere sports book director Ed Malinowski. “I’d like to be able to see if +6 is a number we can get some buy back, but we’ve been at the number for an hour and haven’t had any takers. Maybe that number is +6.5.”


Whenever a desired number is sought by sharp money, they don’t a miss a move like this and within 10 minutes they‘re at the windows to get some.


The South Point also made the move to -6, as book director Bert Osborne said he might yesterday. At 11:53 a.m. PT, Station Books also went to -6.


Other places are contemplating when to make the move themselves as they sit at -5.5, like the CG Technology where VP of risk management Jason Simbal says “it’s all Panthers with 89 percent of the cash taken on the Panthers.”


Over at the Wynn sports book, they just made the move from -5 to -5.5 this morning, but it’s the same betting story with them too.


“It’s been all one-sided with Carolina, so let’s see if they’ll lay -5.5 too,” said Wynn sports book director John Avello. “I’m not ready to take a stance on any number until I can find someone willing to take Denver. That number may be +6, but I won’t be too quick to get off 5.5 for the time being.“


The Wynn usually takes a $1 million bet at least once during each Super Bowl, but Avello said the largest bet he's taken so far was on Carolina in the high five-figures.


When the point-spread moves, the money-line has to be adjusted with it. The South Point is now giving Denver at a city best of +210 (Bet $100 to win $210) with Carolina set at -235 (Bet $100 to win $42), which is the most fantastic money-line split in town and a typical Super Bowl friendly gift the South Point usually gives its bettors.


The total consensus around town is 45.5 with the Westgate and MGM Resorts at a low of 45 and the South Point and Stations at a high of 46.


The other big news of Thursday besides a few books testing -6 is that the Westgate opens their famous Super Bowl propositions at 7:00 p.m. PT. A few books in town have some of the traditional point-spread props posted -- Stations has five pages of props up -- but everyone looks for the Westgate props to help set the market.


Within a few days, scalps around town will be finished and most of the numbers will look the same.

Update - 1.27.16 - 2:25 p.m. ET


Add Caesars Palace, Station Casinos and the Stratosphere to the growing list of Las Vegas sports books that have Carolina -5.5 over the Broncos for next week’s Super Bowl. They took the plunge Wednesday morning. MGM Resorts and the South Point made their move on Tuesday.


“I’m legitimately at Carolina -5.5 and I may be going to -6 soon,” South Point sports book director Bert Osborne said, who opened Carolina -4 on Sunday night. “We’re getting lots of action on the Panthers at -5.5.“


Osborne also said his teaser liability with Carolina-to-OVER was growing by the minute. He has the Panthers money line at -215 with the Broncos at +190, which is the most attractive dog number in the city as of Wednesday afternoon. His total has been steady at 45.5 the past two days after being at 46.5 on Monday.


Over at the MGM Resorts sports book hub inside the Mirage, manager Jeff Stoneback said he and VP Jay Rood were just having a discussion about when they were going to make the move off -5.5, a dead number, and go to -6.


“Our ticket count at just -5.5 alone has the Panthers at a 4-to-1 ratio and the cash taken in is at 2-to-1,“ said Stoneback, who then answered a call from one of his other nine sports books across the strip. A big bet wager was being accepted. “We just took a six-figure bet on Denver at +5.5, so the cash ratio is far more slanted on Denver at 5.5 than what I had just said, maybe at 15-to-1 on Denver now.”


However, Stoneback kept the game at 5.5 for one big reason. “Last night we took a six-figure bet on the Panthers at -5.”


Those are the two biggest wagers the MGM books have taken so far.


In a few days that cash differential at 5.5 will probably be slanted back towards the Panthers, but at least Stoneback has found out that there is Denver money out there and that they are willing to take +5.5.


Professional bettor Jeff Whitelaw says he made the game Carolina -4 and 43, and is betting accordingly with those numbers being his basis on making wagers, not just the game side and total, but also the props when they start coming out.


“I took +5.5 when the number first opened thinking I got the best of it and I also took the UNDER,” said Whitelaw who used to be a bookmaker two decades ago with Jimmy Vaccaro at the Barbary Coast. “If I win one of those bets, I should win the other. It’s a good correlation.”


Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White made Carolina -1 after adjusting all his ratings following the championship games.


So you have two extremely sharp NFL number guys saying -5.5 is inflated, but also saying there is no real reason to bet Denver now because you can let the public drive the number. People still love the Panthers early on. The big question for the books is if that same public sentiment will continue into next week.


Update - 1.26.16 - 12:45 p.m. ET


The easy part for Las Vegas sports books was posting a Super Bowl number on Sunday night. But the tough roll-up-your-sleeves type of work starts on Tuesday and continues through Thursday as the books start making numbers on just about everything offered in a box score.


It's Super Bowl prop time and to get some insight on what kind of timeline were looking at before wagering starts, we talked with Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman as he was on his way to Manager Ed Salmons' house for what is expected to be an all day affair of cramming through data to compile what has becomes the world's most famous Super Bowl propositions.


"We'll work about 10 hours today and probably another eight hours tomorrow," said Sherman, who has been doing this prop routine with Salmons and VP Jay Kornegay for nearly two decades dating back to their days together at the Imperial Palace. Supervisor Randy Blum has also been included in the meeting of prop minds for the past few Super Bowls.


"We've been setting up our template's in the system and preparing sheets for the last couple of days. The only thing we need to add is players names and the actual odds. After reviewing everything Thursday, we should have about 350 props opened for wagering at 7 pm PT."


Sheets will be available Friday and prop wagering on the Westgate's new phone app will be turned on Saturday -- they want the sharp early action coming through the bet windows first. If in Nevada, no account is necessary to download the Westgate's app. It's a nice tool to have for the next week just to compare real time prop prices at other books.


This Westgate crew deserves a lot of credit for what has happened in the Super Bowl prop world here in Las Vegas. They took things to a new level and forced the competition to catch up. First it was 20 props, then 50, 100, 200 and 300 -- higher and higher each year. They were one of the first crews in the city to use box scores from other sports to make a Super Bowl prop. They thought outside of the box and others followed -- some books even stole their sheets and used the same bet numbers and pasted their own logo on it and passed it off as their own.


Jay Kornegay says that 50 percent of their Super Bowl handle comes from props. No other book in town has that kind of equal action, but they're all catching up as the prop wagers have become so popular with fringe once-a-year type of bettors. The beauty about the props is that the books get another outlet for making money and aren't at the risk they used to be in if the worst side and total decision comes in on the Super Bowl. They also get tons of free national publicity.


We'll have all 350 props posted on Friday afternoon.


What's going on with the number?


It's been all Carolina money from the masses so far and Boyd Gaming has the highest number in town with the Panthers at -5.5. Everyone else is at -4.5 or -5. The total is steady at 45.5 at most places with Stations being the highest at 46. The lowest money-line price on Carolina is -200 at several books with Aliante being the highest at -220 with a take back of +190 on Denver, which is the best dog price in towm. William Hill sports books' head oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich said they took a $623,000 wager (wins $327,894) on the Panthers money-line at -190 and moved to -200 (+175 take back on Denver).


Update - 1.26.16 - 12:05 a.m. ET


While I love the idea that ESPN’s First Take is talking Las Vegas Super Bowl numbers, I thought analyst Skip Bayless did an awful job of disseminating the actual betting information when reporting that lots of big Denver money came in to drop the number.


Yes, early Denver money did come in at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Sunday night when they posted +5.5, but with such small early limits and a market not set yet, they weren't married to the number and got in line with other books.


The real story in Las Vegas is that everyone is betting the Panthers as if they’ve seen the final score already. William Hill's 104 sports books across Nevada has seen 90 percent of its tickets Super Bowl tickets on the Panthers (-4) and 86 percent of actual cash wagered on them as well. It’s the same story all across town.


Okay, so it’s early and everyone has the Panthers 49-15 win over the Cardinals fresh in their minds. Arizona was a team many thought was truly super and destined for a title, including myself, and the Panthers beat them down like they were a nobody such as the Tennessee Titans. They also slapped the Seattle Seahawks around the week before, a team most oddsmakers had rated as the tops in the league.


However, after a week or so of thinking about things, bettors may start to soften on the Broncos and its No. 1 ranked defense. Defense is supposed to win championships and Denver’s has carried them all season and now play in the big game. Sure, quarterback Peyton Manning isn’t allowed to throw more than 30 yards downfield -- he can’t physically do it anymore, but if he can refrain from turning the ball over like early in the season they can stay in this game.


The bettors who like Denver are waiting on the sidelines with their wads of cash waiting to see how many points they can get. Why take the high number of +5 at Stations or MGM right now when the Panthers risk is only going to get higher. Knowing that 5 and 5.5 are dead numbers, large money waiting for Denver knows they can wait things out for 13 days and possibly get +6. There's no edge or reason to bet Denver now.


Limits will be raised higher over the next week at most books, but when the straight action and parlay money starts creating lopsided risk on Carolina the books will be forced to move. Sharps know this and the books know this and it will be like a staring contest to see who blinks first.


Stay tuned, we’ll have more updates daily as stuff happens in Las Vegas.


Update - 1.25.16 - 12:05 a.m. ET


Most Las Vegas sports books opened the Carolina Panthers as 4-point favorites over the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50, a number that was elevated to extreme measures based on power ratings.


"We opened Carolina -5.5," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay, "but early Denver action dropped the number."


The Westgate settled at Carolina -4 after all the early wagers with a total at 45. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White had Denver 1-point better on a neutral field than Carolina before Sunday’s games.


When the Panthers demolished the Cardinals, 49-15, the public was all in with Carolina with early wagers.


"We wanted to be high with our number knowing the public would take Carolina," said MGM Resorts sports books VP Jay Rood who opened -4.5. "So far we’re at a 6-to-1 ratio on tickets bet with the Panthers and we’re at a 4-to-1 ratio with cash taken in."


The good news for the sports books is that the game isn’t a ‘3’ which means they have lots of wiggle room to maneuver.


The bad news is that they know the majority public wagers will be on Carolina and its possible that if the wagers become too one-sided that from the public that it could rise to -6 passing the dead numbers of -5 and -5.5.


However, sharps showed that they liked Denver at +5.5 at the Westgate. But remember that "sharp money" pales in comparison to the overall handle is wagered in the Super Bowl.


We’ll be updating everything that happens in Las Vegas regarding the Super Bowl spread, so be sure to check us out. Props are expected to open this Friday (1/29/16).

 

[CNOTES]

Six mistakes Super Bowl bettors make


Two weeks is plenty of time for football bettors to make some of these common mistakes when wagering on "The Big Game".


Betting the Big Game?


Of course you are. It’s the Super Bowl. What a stupid question.


But massive matchups like the Super Bowl breed stupidity, especially when it comes to sports bettors. It doesn’t matter if you’re a first-time gambler or a seasoned sharp: the Super Bowl can make even the most disciplined bettor lose their mind.


There’s a little less than two weeks before the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers showdown in Santa Clara on February 7. That’s more than enough time to completely tank your Super Bowl bets. It’s also plenty of time to heed these warnings.


Here are six mistakes Super Bowl bettors can make:


You bet too early/too late


If you’ve been paying attention to the early line moves for Super Bowl 50, you’ve seen the Panthers go off at anything from -5.5 to -2.5, after kicking the snot out of the Cardinals in the NFC title game.


If you’re a Panthers backer and you didn’t get down on that small spread, you may have missed your chance. Maybe you jumped the gun and took Denver +3 and watched two free points pass you by.


First off, let those odds go, ‘cause man they’re gone. Second, breathe. Third, realize that there are two weeks of wagering to be had on this game and that 95 percent of the money doesn’t come in until the 48 hours before game time. That means movement is coming. Fourth, get an opinion and plan of attack. Know what you realistically want for a line and how much you want to pay for it.


Denver fans, you may want to grab the points on your beloved Broncos now. Books could see action on Denver and Peyton Manning’s storybook ending before it closes, so value could be shrinking as you read this. Panthers backers, you may want to wait out that movement and see if you can get this game back down to -3.5 or even a field goal before showtime.


Last year, the line jumped back and forth between the Patriots and Seahawks in the days before kickoff. That said, don’t let a solid number pass you by.


Waiting out a line move (I think that's a Bob Seger song...) that may never come could have you scrambling on Super Sunday and playing an over-juiced number or grabbing a spread you’re not crazy about.


Prop contradictions


The best plan of attack for wagering on Super Bowl props is to start with the spread and total, and then work backwards. Figure out how the game will play out. If you have Carolina to cover, then who and what will get them there.


If you like the Under, make sure your prop plays coincide with those wagers. That means taking the Under in passing props, leaning toward the Over in rushing props and having a few more “No” than “Yes” bets.


The worst thing you can do is have props that go against each other in the Super Bowl.


If you think Manning finds the Fountain of Youth passes for 300-plus yards, then don’t load up on the Over in the Broncos' rushing yard props.


Believe Cam Newton dominates on the ground? You may want to shy away from Ted Ginn’s Over on total receptions prop and jump on how many football’s Superman hands out to youngsters in the end zone.


Didn’t pay attention to prices


One of the worst rookie mistakes a new bettor can muff is not paying attention to the juice attached to each wager. And especially come Super Bowl time, when you’re not just limited to a side and total, bettors can easily overpay for props and alternative wagers.


Certain props can hold a hefty price tag, either set that way to draw action or adjusted after the betting market has had its say. Professional handicappers are always wary of high-priced moneyline favorites, setting a limit to just how much they’ll put down. Some pros won’t pay more than -150 for a bet and it may be a rule you integrate into your Super Bowl capping.


On top of some extremely juiced prop prices, books limit the amount you can wager on these alternative bets. So, throwing down $20 on a -170 prop bet is only going to net you like $12 in profit. And playing vig-heavy props can turn a winning record into a loss. Nothing stings like going 5-3 on your bets and still ending up in the red.


Halftime lines/chasing


In a game as big as the Super Bowl, bettors can panic if things aren’t going according to plan by the time they start setting up the halftime show stage. That can often lead to people chasing their first-half prop losses and going against what they so intensely handicapped for the past two weeks.


Halftime lines hold value, if you have a strong opinion. Many times, when a game didn’t play to the oddsmakers’ expectations in the first two quarters – high total had low-scoring first half or favorite underperformed – things will correct themselves in the second half.


But, when faced with the shame of a Super Bowl loss, some bettors will go against their existing bets just to have some black ink on the board. If they took the Over, and the halftime score is 10-7, they pull the trigger on the second-half Under. If they laid the favorite, and the chalk is getting beat up through two frames, then side with the underdog.


As mentioned, these abnormalities often even out and bettors can quickly wipe out a winning bet – that was perfectly handicapped – with a horrific halftime wager made in sheer panic.


Too much media


Trust your instincts when it comes to the Super Bowl line. If you’ve watched the NFL intensely each week since the preseason and haven’t missed a minute of playoff action, you already have a firm grip on the two Super Bowl teams and how things should shake down.


If your knee-jerk reaction was “Denver +4 is easy money”, then it probably is. But for the next two weeks, the media is going to break down this game and put it back together 100 times. You will second guess your wager probably just as much.


Like a promoter hyping up a title fight, the Super Bowl will be sold as the matchup of all matchups. Both sides will present excellent reasons why they’ll win. The public consensus will flip flop like fish back and forth. Sharps will be on the Panthers one day and the Broncos the next. Stat heads will throw trends and numbers at you that go all the way to the invention of the forward pass.


And in the end, what was supposed to be a tightly-contested game with a near-FG spread is a 22-0 wash at halftime. So much for all the media hype.


Stick to your guns. First instincts are usually the right ones. Don’t over-soak your brain in two weeks’ worth of media mush. Pick and choose who you listen to, or get your bets down and tune out the Big Game buzz until kickoff like avoiding Star Wars spoilers.


You sucked all the fun out of it


If you’re a fan of the Panthers or Broncos – you’ve earned the right to be a little uptight for this game. I would be if my team was playing in the Super Bowl. But for the rest of us losers, who are left to just bet on the Big Game, don’t ruin what is the final football game that matters until Week 1.


Some guys think “Big Game” equals big bets. If you’ve been stashing your nickels away for a big-ass betting bonanza on Super Bowl Sunday, then have at it – but only if it’s within your means. Nothing takes the fun out of watching the Super Bowl like wondering how you’ll pay the rent after a disastrous interception in the end zone.


And if you’re watching the game with friends or even in a sports bar around strangers, keep your rage in check. There’s no need to start dropping f-bombs and getting your Super-Cam Underoos in a bunch because you didn’t nail that coin flip bet.


Sports betting is entertainment. And there’s no bigger show that the Super Bowl. Enjoy the game, win or lose.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 7

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CAROLINA (17 - 1) vs. DENVER (14 - 4) - 2/7/2016, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAROLINA is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NFL

Super Bowl

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Trend Report
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Sunday, February 7

6:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. DENVER
Carolina is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Denver is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games