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[CNOTES]

NFL Wildcard Weekend opens with three of four road teams favored


Kansas City is one of three of four road teams that are favored on Wildcard Weekend.


Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans


Wildcard weekend opens in Houston with the Texans hosting the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs, who have won 10 straight games and opened as three-point road favorites. The total opened at 41.


The Chiefs were 7-3 ATS during their 10 game win streak, but were just 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Meanwhile the Texans were 5-3 ATS at home and closed the season going 3-0 SU/ATS.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals


In the second AFC Wildcard matchup, Cincinnati hosts rival Pittsburgh and with Bengals' starting quarterback Andy Dalton's status uncertain, the Steelers have opened as 2.5-point favorites. The total opened at 46.5.


The AFC North foes split the two games this season with Cincy winning in Week 8 16-10 in a game that closed as a Pick and Pittsburgh taking the Week 14 33-20 as 1-point dogs. The games went 1-1 O/U.


Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings


Sunday's Wildcard action kicks off in Minnesota, with two of the leagues hottest teams clash when the Seahawks visit the Vikings.


While it was Minnesota who went into Lambeau Field to take the NFC North crown from the Packers, it is the Seahawks who open as 3.5-point road favorites.


Seattle heads into the game covering six of the last seven games, including a 36-6 thumping of division rival Arizona in Week 17, while Minny was one of the NFL's best bets this season at 13-3 ATS. Seattle did go into Minnesota and thrash the Vikings 38-7 as 2.5-point faves in Week 12.

Green Bay Packers at Washington


Washington, perhaps surprisingly, opens as the lone home favorite in the final game of Wildcard weekend, hitting the board at -1 against visiting Green Bay. The total opened at 46.


Washington enters the game winner of four straight games SU and ATS, going over in each game. Meanwhile the Packers head into the playoffs losers of two in a row SU/ATS, getting outscored 58-21 in the process.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card Weekend


Washington has picked up 17 of its total 38 sacks in the last four games - all wins for the Redskins. Green Bay has given up 14 sacks in the last two contests - both losses.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+3.5, 40)


Chiefs’ soft sked vs. Texans’ peaking defense


Kansas City’s 10-game winning streak to end the NFL season is impressive, especially considering the Chiefs stumbled out of the blocks with a 1-5 SU start. However, poking around at this winning run – like a new-born baby – we find that there are few soft spots. The most glaring is the lack of push back from opposing defenses.


During those 10 games, Kansas City faced about as much resistance as a Slip-N-Slide, playing just two teams ranked lower than 18th in total defense: Denver No. 1 and Baltimore No. 8. The other eight games were against Pittsburgh (21st), Detroit (18th), San Diego twice (20th), Buffalo (19th), Oakland twice (22nd), and Cleveland (27th).


Houston, which ranked third in total defense on the season, took a while to find its familiar footing on that side of the ball. The Texans stop unit was blasted for some big numbers against ho-hum opponents, like Atlanta and Miami, but tightened the bolts during the home stretch and won three in a row to punch a postseason ticket.


Sure, Houston took on cupcakes as well, facing Indianapolis, Tennessee and Jacksonville in the final three contests. But the Texans still limited those divisional foes to a grand total of 22 points and allowed an average of just under 221 yards in that span – lowest in the NFL. Another big plus is the resurgence of J.J. Watt, who had just four sacks in the first six weeks before exploding for 13.5 in the last 10 games, including three in the finale versus the Jaguars.


Daily fantasy watch: Houston D/ST


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3, 45.5)


Steelers without Williams vs. Bengals’ red-zone defense


Veteran running back D’Angelo Williams was a godsend for the Steelers, who leaned on him when Le’Veon Bell was suspended to start the year and again when Bell was lost for the season. Williams’ smash-mouth style has stirred up memories of Jerome Bettis, especially when Pittsburgh enters its opponent’s 20-yard line, scoring six of his 11 touchdowns inside the red zone. In fact, he had 34 red-zone touches this season, which is seventh most for running backs in the league.


Williams is a big question mark for Saturday’s Wild Card showdown with Cincinnati, missing practice this week with a foot injury that has the bruising back in a walking boot. He was a major cog in Pittsburgh’s 33-20 win over the Bengals in Week 14, rushing for 76 yards and two touchdowns – both on which came on 1-yard runs at the goal line. Without Williams, the Steelers are expecting to go with Fitzgerald Toussaint as the No. 1 rushing option.


Cincinnati has been among the top defenses in the league all season and turns up the intensity when teams actually do crack the red zone. The Bengals, who have allowed opponents inside the 20-yard line only 38 times this season, have watched those foes find the end zone just over 47 percent of the time – fifth lowest in the NFL.


Those numbers get slimmer inside Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati is giving up TDs on just 33 percent of their opponents’ red-zone tries and has been drum tight against the run as well, limiting rival rushers to four total TDs on the ground at home this season – two of those coming to Williams in Week 14. In the Week 8 meeting in Pittsburgh, the Bengals budged for 116 rushing yards from Bell and Williams with no rushing scores.


Daily fantasy watch: Cincinnati D/ST


Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (+5, 39.5)


Seahawks’ troubles in the cold vs. Vikings’ frigid home field


The Seahawks have enjoyed one of the best home-field edges in the NFL for years. Not only is the crowd at CenturyLink Field among the loudest in pro sports, but the damp and dank Seattle weather has plagued visiting teams during the winter months.


Now, the Seahawks find themselves on the other end of that edge during the Wild Card Weekend. The Sunday forecast in Minnesota is calling for temperatures hovering around 0 degrees Fahrenheit with a wind chill making it feel much colder than that. It is lining up to be one of the coldest games in NFL history.


While the Pacific Northwest has plenty of rain, it is one of the warmer annual climates in the country, putting the two-time NFC champs out of their element. Cold has had a negative effect on the Seahawks in recent years, going just 2-4 SU and ATS on the road when the mercury dips below freezing (32 degrees F) since 2005-06, including a 0-4 SU and ATS mark since 2007-08. During those previous four chilly road games, the Seahawks have been outscored 149-74.


The last time Seattle played in anything close to Sunday’s climate was a 21 F degree day at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, losing 24-20 to the Chiefs as a 1-point road favorite in Week 11 of last season. “There’s no simulating zero degrees,” Seattle CB Richard Sherman told the media this week. “I guess I could go upstairs in the freezer, shut the doors, sit there for a few minutes?”


Daily fantasy watch: Adrian Peterson RB


Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (+1, 45.5)


Packers’ poor pass protection vs. Redskins’ raging pass rush


When you look at how bad the Packers’ offensive line has been this season, it’s a near miracle Aaron Rodgers didn't join the long list of starting quarterbacks that were put on the shelf. Rodgers was sacked 47 times during the regular season – 17 times more than 2014 – and has been hit a total of 104 times, which ranks seventh most in the NFL.


Things have gotten especially hectic for “Discount Double Check” in recent weeks. Rodgers has been laid out 23 times in the last six games with 14 of those coming in the previous two: nine times in the loss to Arizona and five in the loss to Minnesota in Week 17. Injuries to the offensive line has spoiled any chemistry in Green Bay and has Mike McCarthy shuffling his protectors like musical chairs.


Washington comes into the postseason on a four-game winning streak, thanks in large part to a defense that has feasted on opposing passers. The Redskins, who have 38 total sacks on the season, picked up 21 of those in the first 12 weeks of the schedule – an average of just under two sacks per game in that span. But in the final four games of the season, Washington has recorded 17 sacks for an average of 4.25 per outing.


Linebackers Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith have been blowing up blockers in recent weeks, combining for eight of those 17 sacks in the past four games. To protect from those outside rushers - and make up for a lack of depth on the o-line – Green Bay will use plenty of two-tight end sets as well as a fullback to give Rodgers time. That inability to spread out receivers takes some bite out of the Packers’ pass game.


Daily fantasy watch: Washington D/ST

 

[CNOTES]

SATURDAY, JANUARY 9


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS




KC at HOU 04:35 PM


HOU +3.0 BEST BET


U 39.0

 

[CNOTES]

SATURDAY, JANUARY 9


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


PIT at CIN 08:15 PM


PIT -2.5 BEST BET


O 45.5 BEST BET

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Tip Sheet
January 8, 2016


Seahawks (-5, 39 ½) at Vikings – 1:05 PM EST – NBC


Seattle (10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) is listed as the largest favorite on Wild Card weekend, as the two-time defending NFC Champions travel to frigid Minneapolis to start their Super Bowl quest. Temperatures are expected to be in the single-digits by kickoff, marking one of the coldest playoff games in NFL history.


The Seahawks started the season on the wrong foot, losing four of their first six games, including three losses by four points or less. Pete Carroll’s team would turn the corner by winning eight of the final 10 contests to clinch their fourth straight playoff berth and qualify for the postseason for the 10th time in 13 seasons. Quarterback Russell Wilson lit up opposing defenses in the last seven weeks of the season by throwing for 24 touchdowns and only one interception, including 11 touchdown strikes to wide receiver Doug Baldwin.


The Vikings (11-5 SU, 13-3 ATS) put together the best ATS record in the league, while clinching the NFC North crown by winning at Green Bay in Week 17 by a 20-13 count as three-point underdogs. Mike Zimmer’s club won their final three games of the season to overcome a pair of early December losses to Seattle and Arizona, as the Vikings’ defense yielded 17 points or less during this current three-game winning streak.


Seattle ripped Minnesota at TCF Bank Stadium in Week 13 as 2 ½-point road favorites, 38-7. Wilson carved up the Vikings’ defense with three touchdown passes to go along with a touchdown run, while Baldwin hauled in a pair of scores from Wilson. Adrian Peterson couldn’t get anything going on the ground for the Vikings, rushing 18 yards on eight carries, both season-lows. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater struggled as well, throwing for 181 yards and an interception, one of six games in which he didn’t throw a touchdown pass this season.


Seattle’s defense gave up at least 30 points in a game three times this season, yet they still led the league in points allowed at 277. The Seahawks lost their first three games away from CenturyLink Field, but won their final five road contests by yielding an average of 6.8 points per game and covering four times. The ‘under’ cashed in the last four games of the season, while Seattle won three of four times against NFC North foes.


The Vikings are back in the postseason for the first time since 2012, while hosting their first playoff game since 2009. Minnesota took advantage at TCF Bank Stadium by compiling a 6-2 SU/ATS record, although they put up 1-2 SU/ATS mark against playoff squads with the lone win coming against Kansas City in Week 6.


Running back Marshawn Lynch is out of the lineup for the Seahawks once again after missing the last seven games with a sports hernia. Christine Michael has stepped up with the myriad of injuries in the Seattle backfield as the former Texas A&M standout rushed for 102 yards in the season finale rout of the Cardinals.


The Seahawks have put together a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS record in the postseason since Wilson took over at quarterback in 2012. Seattle is playing its first road playoff game since Wilson’s rookie season as the Seahawks beat the Redskins as three-point road favorites, 24-14, followed up by a 30-28 setback at Atlanta in the divisional playoffs as 2 ½-point underdogs.

Packers at Redskins (-1, 45) – 4:40 PM EST – FOX


In probably the most intriguing matchup of Wild Card weekend, arguments can be made for both Green Bay and Washington to advance – and to lose. The Packers (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) are no stranger to the postseason, qualifying for the seventh consecutive season, but Mike McCarthy’s squad has lost four of their last six playoff games.


The last time Green Bay didn’t win the NFC North title, it worked out for them as they won three straight road playoff games and knocked off the Steelers to capture Super Bowl XLV in 2010. The Packers fell short of a division championship this season in spite of jumping out to a 6-0 record. Green Bay lost its final two games, including a 20-13 home setback to rival Minnesota to be relegated to the Wild Card round.


Washington (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS) overcame a 2-4 start to take home the NFC East championship for the first time since 2012. The Redskins are riding a four-game winning streak, while topping the 34-point mark in each of the past three victories. Quarterback Kirk Cousins was intercepted eight times in the first six games, but turned things around in a huge way by posting a 23/3 touchdown to interception ratio in the final 10 contests (7-3 SU/ATS).


The Packers and Redskins didn’t play each other this season as Green Bay won the previous matchup at Lambeau Field in 2013 by a 38-20 score. Green Bay cashed as nine-point favorites and were never really challenged as they grabbed a 31-0 third quarter advantage. Aaron Rodgers torched the Redskins’ defense by throwing for 480 yards and four touchdowns, while two Packers’ receivers (James Jones and Randall Cobb) each racked up at least 100 yards.


Jay Gruden’s team made plenty of strides this season, but one thing that can be highlighted is the fact the Redskins didn’t beat one club that owned a winning record. Washington is setting in as a short favorite as the Redskins failed to cash in two opportunities when laying points at FedEx Field. In the first chance, Washington erased a 24-0 deficit against Tampa Bay in a thrilling 31-30 triumph, but didn’t cover as three-point favorites. In the second opportunity as a home favorite, the Redskins were tripped up by the Cowboys in an ugly 19-16 loss in Week 13, but Washington won five of its final seven home games.


Green Bay had its struggles on the road against playoff teams this season, losing at Denver, Carolina, and Arizona. The Packers did put together a strong effort in a 30-13 blowout of the Vikings in late November, but Green Bay scored 16 points or less in five of six losses this season. The last playoff game for the Packers especially stung, blowing a 12-point fourth quarter lead in a 28-22 overtime loss at Seattle in last season’s NFC Championship.

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - WC
January 8, 2016


There’s one decision during Wild Card weekend that stands out like a sore thumb at Las Vegas sports books and of course it happens to be the biggest favorite among the four games.


“The Vikings are going to be key for us,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne, "because we’re loaded with action on the Seattle side, not so much on straight bets because we took some large money at +6 with Minnesota, but from parlays and teasers. We’re seeing our parlays being bet at about an 8-to-1 ratio on the Seahawks.”


There’s a variety of numbers to choose from around town with a low of Seattle -4.5 at MGM Resorts to a high of -5.5 The Wynn. The South Point, Station Casinos and CG Technologies are all at -5.


“We are going to be rooting hard for the Vikings,” said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. “We’ve taken both sharp and public action with Seattle so it will be a big decision.”


Another angle Simbal has a rooting interest in with Minnesota is conference and Super Bowl futures. CG books don’t want Seattle to win it all because of risk while one of their biggest wins would come from another NFC team.


“We win really big to the Panthers in futures so ideally we want them to avoid Seattle next week and play either Green Bay or Washington.”


Seattle comes in having covered five of its past six games and that kind of momentum always sits well with the betting public, as does the playoff pedigree differential between both teams. They also watched Seattle win 38-7 at Minnesota last month.


The difference this time around is that the Vikings have covered its last four games and freezing temperatures with a wind chill at minus degrees could make it a grittier grind out game than witnessed in their last meeting.


“Our best scenario for the weekend so far is for the Texans and Bengals to win outright,” said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. “The NFC games are still unclear for us. We’ve got lots of parlay risk on Seattle, but the straight money is on the Vikings.”


The books would love to get the Wild Card weekend started Saturday with an early upset in the first game where the Chiefs are a consensus 3-point favorite (-120) at Houston.


“We’re balanced on straight bets between two different numbers, but the Chiefs are being bet at a 5-to-2 ratio on the parlays“, said Osborne.


Osborne’s book is the only one in the city that uses flat numbers and he has seen large action laying -3 with the Chiefs and large action the other way with the Texans +3.5.


Saturday’s late game is a rubber match between bitter division rivals with the Steelers as 3-point road favorites at Cincinnati. The two teams split the two meetings during the regular season.


The Bengals have lost in this round the past four seasons and coach Marvin Lewis is 0-6 in Wild Card games over his 12 years with the Bengals -- not one cover, either.


“Were even with straight bets on the Steelers and Bengals,” said Osborne, “but the Steelers are getting most of the play on parlays.”


There's a 90 percent chance of rain at Cincinnati Saturday night and a 100 percent chance of rain Sunday afternoon at Washington (Landover) where the Packers and Redskins are Pick 'em.


“Surprisingly, the public likes the Redskins,” said Osborne. “We’re even on straight bets, but parlays are at about a 3-to-2 ratio in favor of the Redskins.”


Green Bay has traditionally been a popular choice with the betting public, but after seeing them lose and fail to cover its final two games while the Redskins come in on a roll of winning and covering its last four games, the Redskins have found plenty of supporters this week.


If Seattle, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Washington all cover for the public, it's going to be a massive blow to the sports books with lots of parlay payouts. If the books can get two of those sides not to cover, they should come away with a winning weekend, especially if Minnesota covers.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - WC Sunday
January 8, 2016




Sunday’s NFC Wild Card matchups will have bettors choosing between experience and youth as a pair of Super Bowl champions face teams with both quarterbacks and coaches making their postseason debuts.


As mentioned in Saturday’s installment, the ‘under’ has been a great bet in the Wild Card recently. The number stands at 9-2-1 (82%) to the low side the last three postseasons but make a not that we could see a total in the thirties this weekend with the Seahawks-Vikings game on the cusp of 40.


The last three Wild Card games that had totals close in the thirties all went ‘over’ the number but they were very tight outcomes.


Sunday Jan. 10


For the playoffs, I’m going to break down each day and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Seattle at Minnesota


Oddsmakers sent out an opener of 42 ½ on this game and that number has dropped as low as 39 ½ at some shops. Inclement weather is expected in Minneapolis on Sunday afternoon and the latest forecasts have wind chills between 15-20 degrees below zero.


Since the Vikings started playing at TCF Bank Stadium (University of Minnesota), they only had two games that were in the same neighborhood of this week’s temperatures. They did well too, blasting the Panthers 31-13 last season and just a few weeks ago, they hammered the Giants 49-17 in similar conditions.


It’s hard to imagine the Vikings putting up a crooked number on Sunday, especially against a Seattle team that has the best scoring defense (17.3 points per game) in the league. What’s more impressive is the Seahawks were better defensively on the road (15.2 PPG) this season than at home.


Minnesota is stout defensively too, holding teams to 18.9 PPG but similar to Seattle, it’s been better on the road (17.8 PPG) than at home (20 PPG).


The Seahawks have leaned slightly to the ‘under’ (9-7) this season and the ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run the last four weeks yet the offense has averaged 32 PPG during the second-half of the season.


During this span, the ‘Hawks have averaged 36.3 in three road games, which includes a 38-7 win at Minnesota in Week 12. Seattle dominated on both sides of the ball, building a 35-0 lead and outgaining the Vikings by nearly 300 total yards (423-125) in the victory.


QB Russell Wilson has been lights out the last seven games, completing over 70 percent of his passes while racking up 24 touchdowns and only one interception. Seattle is expected to have running back Marshawn Lynch back this weekend and his presence might actually slow the game down. He only had 20 or more carries in two games this season and while they won those games, they both easily went ‘under’ the number (20-3, 13-12).


Since getting torched by Wilson and company, the Vikings closed the season with a 3-1 record and the defense allowed an average of 17.5 PPG. Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 11-4-1 overall but three of those ‘over’ tickets came at home.


Prior to last year’s playoff run, the Seahawks had watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 with Wilson at QB and Pete Carroll as head coach. Last postseason, Seattle was a perfect 3-0 to the ‘over’ and a couple of those tickets were lucky to cash, most notably its playoff opener at home versus Green Bay.


In Seattle’s recent postseason run with the pair, the ‘Hawks have been away from home four times and they’ve gone 2-2 while averaging 29.8 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go 3-1.


Including the result in December, the ‘Hawks have won and covered three straight against the Vikings and the ‘over’ has cashed in all three games.


Fearless Prediction: Based on the recent history for the ‘Hawks in the playoffs and the big game experience from Wilson, I’m leaning to Seattle Team Total Over (22) in this spot.





Green Bay at Washington


The total on this game opened at 46 and has dropped to 45 as of Friday morning. If your handicapping leans heavily on current form, you’re probably wondering why the early money has come in the ‘under’ and Green Bay in this game.


The Packers closed the season with a pair of humbling losses and were outscored 58-21 in those setbacks. Meanwhile, Washington finished off the last quarter of the season with four consecutive wins, covers and ‘over’ tickets.


It’s apparent that the form has been tossed out the window and bettors aren’t buying Washington and when you look at its resume this season, you can see the reasoning. The Redskins are in the playoffs despite not facing a team with a winning record and when they did go up against a playoff team, they surrendered 27 and 44 points to New England Carolina respectively.


Defensively, Washington is the worst scoring unit (23.7 PPG) amongst the 12 playoff teams and during its recent winning streak, the unit hasn’t held anybody to 21 or less.


However, right behind them is Green Bay’s defense at 20.2 PPG and that unit was torched when it stepped up in class too. The Packers went 5-3 on the road this season and the three losses all came to playoff teams, who put up 29, 37 and 38 points. Technically, the Redskins are a playoff team but certainly not in the same class with the Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals.


Since the Redskins are now listed as short home ‘dogs for this game, it’s hard for me to ignore the fact they’ve won and covered five straight in this role and the offense has averaged 29.8 PPG. I’m not sure if head coach Jay Gruden is preaching the disrespect angle but something is working for them.


In 11 playoff games, the Packers have averaged 28.3 PPG with Aaron Rodgers at QB. In seven games away from Lambeau Field, the numbers are even better (31.3 PPG). Despite those strong offensive efforts, the ‘over’ has only managed to produce a 6-5 mark.


These teams met in the 2013 regular season and Green Bay pasted Washington 38-20 as a 7 ½-point home favorite and the ‘over’ (48) cashed early in the fourth quarter as Rodgers passed for 480 yards and 4 TDs.


Fearless Prediction: I expect both teams to produce four to five scores in this game and that should get both of them into the twenties. Even though the opening line is going the other way, I’m buying the game Over 45 and I’m also taking Washington Team Total Over (22 ½). Based on the great offensive numbers from the Redskins at home and the suspect defensive play from the Packers at home, Washington should jump this number on Sunday.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL ATS


NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 29 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+19.1 units)

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in all games
The record is 13 Wins and 3 Losses for the this season (+9.7 units)


--------------------


NFL MONEYLINE


NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON SEATTLE using money line in All games off a division game
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+9.9 units)


NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON SEATTLE using money line in Road games off a division game
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9 units)

NFL > (107) GREEN BAY@ (108) WASHINGTON | 2016-01-10 16:40:00 - 2016-01-10 16:40:00
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using money line in All games in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points
The record is 16 Wins and 32 Losses for the since 1992 (-26 units)


--------------------


NFL TOTALS


NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the totalin All games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play UNDER SEATTLE on the totalin All games in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21
The record is 2 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 10


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


SEA at MIN 01:05 PM


MIN +4.0 BEST BET


O 40.0 BEST BET




GB at WAS 04:40 PM


WAS -1.0 BEST BET


O 46.5 BEST BET

 

[CNOTES]

Parlay Wager - 1 Parlay of 4 Teams


NFL - 01/10/16
[103] TOTAL (SEATTLE vrs MINNESOTA) o40 1.91
Game Date: 01-10-2016 10:05:00


NFL - 01/10/16
[104] MINNESOTA +4 1.95
Game Date: 01-10-2016 10:05:00


NFL - 01/10/16
[107] TOTAL (GREEN BAY vrs WASHINGTON) o47 1.91
Game Date: 01-10-2016 13:40:00


NFL - 01/10/16
[108] WASHINGTON PK 1.91
Game Date: 01-10-2016 13:40:00

 

[CNOTES]

AFC Divisional Playoff Notes
January 10, 2016


Saturday, Jan. 16


Kansas City at New England (CBS, 4:35 p.m. ET)


Line Movement: The Patriots opened as 5 ½-point favorites and the number dropped to five at a few shops and as low as 4 ½ at others. The total opened as high as 45 ½ and is now sitting at 43 ½ and 43 everywhere as of Sunday morning.


Injuries: Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin (knee) and Patriots WR Julian Edelman (foot) have both been ruled as ‘questionable’ but a lot of preliminary reports believe the Kansas City wide out could be done for the season.


Kansas City Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
New England Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-1-3 ATS


Head-to-Head: Last season, the Chiefs blasted the Patriots 41-14 as 2 ½-point home underdogs in primetime showdown. Many pundits believed New England was done at the time but they silenced everybody by eventually winning the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have won and covered their last six encounters against AFC East foes. New England is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games versus AFC West opponents which includes a run of five straight victories at home.

Playoff Notes: Last Saturday’s playoff win for the Chiefs was the first for the franchise since 1994 and also the first for head coach Andy Reid in Kansas City. Bill Belichick has gone 21-8 in the playoffs with the Patriots. At home, the team has gone 14-3 SU and 8-5-1 ATS during this span while the ‘under’ is 10-7. In the last seven postseason games played at Foxboro, the Patriots are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS with four of the victories come by double digits.


Total Notes: Kansas City has watched the ‘over-under’ go 8-8-1 this season and that includes a 5-3-1 mark on the road. The Chiefs have scored 45, 29, 33, 34, 34 and 30 points in their last six games away from home. New England saw the ‘over’ go 9-7 this season but the total was a stalemate (4-4) at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots averaged 29.1 PPG this season, and 31.6 PPG at home.





Sunday, Jan. 17


Pittsburgh at Denver (CBS, 4:40 p.m. ET)


Line Movement: Sportsbook.ag opened the Broncos as three-point home favorites with a total of 40. The number has jumped up to 5 ½ at this shop. CG Technology in Las Vegas is holding Denver -6 and 5Dimes.eu has Denver -7 (+120) as of Sunday morning.


Injuries: Pittsburgh has three key players knocked up and all are listed as ‘questionable’ for Sunday. QB Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder), WR Antonio Brown (concussion) and RB DeAngelo Williams (ankle). Denver QB Peyton Manning was named the starter for this game after missing six games at the end of the season.

Pittsburgh Road Record: 5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS
Denver Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS


Head-to-Head: The Steelers defeated the Broncos 34-27 in Week 15 and failed to cover as 7 ½-point home favorites. This number closed high but most books had Pittsburgh -6 and -6 ½ prior to the late rush before kickoff. Prior to this result, the most recent meeting between the pair took place in the 2012 season when they squared off against each other twice. Denver won both games at home, 31-19 in the regular season and 29-23 in the playoffs, which was Tim Tebow’s signature win. The Broncos are 7-3 SU and 5-3-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus the AFC North. The ‘over’ has gone 8-2 during this span. Despite beating Denver this season, Pittsburgh is just 5-5 in its last 10 against the AFC West and only 2-7-1 ATS in those games.

Playoff Notes: Including last week’s win over the Bengals, head coach Mike Tomlin is 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in the playoffs for Pittsburgh. The victory at Cincinnati was just the second postseason win for Tomlin away from home. Since Peyton Manning joined the Broncos, the team is 2-3 in the playoffs which includes a pedestrian 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS mark at home. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in those four home playoff games. Denver head coach Gary Kubiak has been to the playoffs four times with the Houston Texans and went 2-2.


Total Notes: The Steelers have watched the ‘under’ go 11-6 this season and that includes a 7-2 mark on the road. Pittsburgh enters this game with a 3-0 ‘under’ streak. Denver has been an ‘under’ (9-6-1) team as well this season, especially at home where it owns a 5-2-1 mark.

 

[CNOTES]

Books win Wild Card weekend
January 11, 2016


For the first time ever during an NFL Playoff weekend all four road teams won, three of which happened to be favorites with the other only being a small underdog who originally opened as the favorite.

The net result for the Las Vegas sports books was a winning Wild Card weekend, but almost every book had the feeling of chips being left on the table when Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard go-ahead field goal with 26 seconds remaining, which helped the Seahawks advance to next weekend’s divisional playoff round with a 10-9 win.

“Seattle was a good win for us in regards to parlays,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne, “but the teasers hurt us as did the Seattle money-line.”

The Seahawks had been as high as six-point favorites, but closed -4.5 at most sports books. Had the Vikings won 12-10, it would have destroyed a huge chunk of remaining teasers that had Seattle +1.5 to pick ‘em.

Osborne said the Seahawks, who were the biggest favorites of the weekend, was the most heavily bet teaser and parlay game of weekend. Seattle had been a popular choice at -230 on all money-line parlays and the missed field goal allowed several to cash with the Saturday’s two favorites -- Kansas City and Pittsburgh -- winning.

“Today (Sunday) was okay, said CG TechnologyVP of risk management Jason Simbal. “The Vikings covering for us was good, but it would have been better if they won. We went red/red (any side/total decision) into the last game because of parlays, but were guaranteed a winning day once the Vikings got there.”

Most books opened the Packers -1 or pick ‘em but by kickoff, enough Redskins straight bet action had pushed the Redskins to -1.5 which made them the only home favorites of the weekend. After the Redskins jumped out to early 11-0 lead, most Washington bettors had an uneasy feeling about their wager just because the Redskins had already squandered so many scoring opportunities. The Packers end up outscoring Washington 35-8 after spotting them the lead, which ended Green Bay’s two-game losing streak and Washington’s four-game winning streak.

“The last game of these playoff weekends is always rough because so much risk is built up from the first three games,” said Osborne, “and we had equal action on the Packers and Redskins, so we still managed to do okay with it.”

The first three games of the weekend saw the games stay UNDER the total, but bettors were out in force betting the OVER in the Packers-Redskins game which pushed the total from 45 all the way up to 47.5 and the wager never seemed in doubt as the Packers cruised to a 35-18 win.

Saturday’s games saw the Chiefs win their 11th straight game (8-3 ATS) in a 30-0 win at Houston -- a game that wasn’t even that close as Texans’ QB Brian Hoyer accounted for five turnovers.

In the late game, the Bengals made a furious come back after being down 15-0 to take a 16-15 lead over the Steelers, which all coincided with a crushing hit on Ben Roethlisberger's shoulder that took him out of the game. Big Ben would come back with his injured shoulder for the final drive and took them 74 yards for the winning field goal, which was aided by 30 yards worth of two personal foul penalties on the Bengals when Pittsburgh only had 22 second remaining with no timeouts left from the Bengals 47 yard line. Final score: Steelers 18, Bengals 16.

The Steelers opened up as three-point road favorites and were at -2.5 for the majority of the week until dropping to -1.5 on Saturday. Most of the public parlay action had the Steelers -2.5. The South Point was able to come out ahead in this game in part because of offering attractive money-line odds on the Bengals, which plenty of large bets took.

“(Saturday) was kind of the same as Sunday,” said Simbal. “We lost to KC, but got it back with the Bengals covering.”

That seemed to be the same story with everyone around town, and teasers played a major role everywhere as the sides went 6-2 with Pittsburgh-Cincinnati and Seattle-Minnesota being all-way side wins. It’s a pretty cool option for the bettor when a game is close as the spread suggests and everyone wins on a teaser while the book has no chance.

“The Chiefs and Packers-Redskins game were no good for us,” said Station Casinos Jason McCormick, ”but it was still solid weekend results and we’re looking forward to the great matchups next week.“

Those matchups this week truly are great with the best of the best squaring off.


The first game Saturday has the Patriots as 5.5-point home favorites against the Chiefs. New England lost its last two games and four of six (2-4 ATS), but lost only one home game all season. The late game will feature a rematch from Week 16 where the Cardinals embarrassed the Packers 38-8. Arizona was favored by 10-points in that game, but are now only -7 this week.

On Sunday, the Panthers are 2.5-point home favorites over the Seahawks, a team that no one seems to want to face. Every NFC team alive was grimacing when Walsh missed the field goal because there was a easy chance to oust the top rated team in the league. Carolina being -2.5 suggests that they’re equal on a neutral field, and that’s not really the case as Seattle is about 3-points better in the power ratings which means this game should probably be closer to pick ’em when factoring in Carolina’s home field.

The most interesting game of the weekend will be the Steelers getting six points at Denver, which is a rematch from Week 15 when Denver was getting +7.5 at Pittsburgh, and lost 34-27. The spreads of the two games look funny with a 13.5-point swing after such a short time frame, but a lot has happened since then.


Both these teams are rated equally, which should call for Denver -3, but now you have to figure in a slight upgrade of about 2-points from backup quarterback Brock Osweiler, who played in the first game, to Sunday’s starter Peyton Manning. Then you have a cautionary measure placed on the Steelers because of Big Ben likely not being 100 percent -- he told his offensive coordinator to not call any deep passes on that last drive at Cincinnati because he couldn’t make the pass. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White say the difference between Rosthlisberger and back-up Landry Jones is worth at least 5-points.

Wild Card weekend was a teaser bonanza for bettors and the teaser action this week will be even higher just because of more higher profile teams and larger spreads.


Look for the New England, Arizona, Seattle and Pittsburgh teaser to be one of the books worst outcomes this weekend.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC Divisional Playoff Notes
January 11, 2016




Saturday, Jan. 16


Green Bay at Arizona (NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET)


Line Movement: The Westgate Las Vegas sent out the Cardinals as 7 ½-point favorites with a total of 49 ½. A couple major offshores in CRIS and 5Dimes opened Arizona -7 (-120) and the line has held steady at most shops, some making you lay the juice while others are flat (-110). The total has moved up to 50 at most betting shops.


Injuries: The Packers are hoping to get DB Sam Shields (concussion) and OL David Bakhtiari (ankle) back in the lineup after missing last week’s win at Washington. They are listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday.


Green Bay Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
Arizona Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS


Head-to-Head: The Cardinals blasted the Packers 38-8 in Week 15 but the game changed late in the first half as Green Bay was picked off in the endzone. Arizona turned that mistake into a 17-0 halftime lead and cruised in the final 30 minutes with the help from two defensive touchdowns.


Playoff Notes: Prior to last week’s win at Washington, the Packers were 2-4 in their last six playoff appearances and that included a 0-2 road record. Green Bay was in a similar role last season at Seattle and wound up collapsing late in a 28-22 overtime loss but covered the number. Arizona hasn’t won a playoff game since 2010 and coincidentally that victory came at home against Green Bay in a wild 51-45 shootout. Cardinals QB Carson Palmer will only be making his third playoff start and he’s 0-2 but he was knocked out early to a gruesome knee injury in his first appearance versus the Steelers.


Total Notes: Even though Sunday’s result vs. Washington went ‘over’ the number, the Packers have seen the ‘under’ go 11-6 this season but five of those ‘over’ tickets have occurred on the road. Arizona leaned slightly to the high side (9-7) this season but it closed the season on a 5-1 run to the ‘under.’ Arizona played in three games with totals listed in the fifties and the ‘under’ went 2-1 in those games. The Packers have seen the ‘under’ cash in all three games with totals listed in the fifties. Dating back to 2009, the Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in their last seven playoff games.






Sunday, Jan. 17


Seattle at Carolina (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Line Movement: The Panthers opened as 2 ½-point favorites and have moved to 3 (EVEN) at most betting shops. The total is holding steady at 43 ½ but a few outfits are holding 44.

Injuries: Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch (abdominal) didn’t make the trip to Minnesota last week and is ‘questionable’ for Sunday.


Seattle Road Record: 6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS
Carolina Home Record: 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS


Head-to-Head: Carolina snapped a five-game losing streak to Seattle earlier this season with a 27-23 victory as a seven-point road underdog. In last year’s postseason, the Seahawks defeated the Panthers 31-17 in the Divisional Playoff round. In the last three games played at Carolina between the pair, Seattle has won all three but all of the games were decided by five points or less (16-12, 12-7, 13-9).


Playoff Notes: Including last week’s win, Seattle is now 7-2 in the postseason with Russell Wilson at quarterback and that includes a 3-2 record away from home. Carolina is 1-2 in the playoffs with Cam Newton under center and is 0-3 in its last three postseason games played in the Divisional Playoff round, two of those setbacks coming at home and all the losses were by double digits.

Total Notes: Seattle has watched the ‘under’ go 10-7 this season and the ‘under’ is on a 5-0 run headed into this week’s game. Carolina has the second best ‘over’ mark (10-5-1) this season and was 5-2-1 to the ‘over’ at home. The ‘over’ has cashed in the last two meetings between the pair, both of those games were played at Seattle. In the previous three games played at Carolina, the ‘under’ cashed in all three.

 

[CNOTES]

Broncos healthier, ready for Steelers
January 11, 2016


ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) The Denver Broncos are back at practice, preparing for the one team that solved their league-best defense.


The only two players who were absent from Monday's practice were safety Darian Stewart (hamstring) and cornerback Chris Harris Jr. (shoulder).


Denver (12-4) hosts the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) on Sunday in the AFC divisional playoffs.


The Broncos blew a 17-point lead in a 34-27 loss at Pittsburgh on Dec. 20. Denver was without safeties Stewart, T.J. Ward and Omar Bolden that day and David Bruton Jr. played 75 snaps on a broken right leg.


The Steelers were the only team to top 30 points on Denver this season, and ailing Ben Roethlisberger was the only QB to throw for more than 300 yards against them.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL ATS


NFL > (307) PITTSBURGH@ (308) DENVER | 2016-01-17 16:40:00 - 2016-01-17 16:40:00
Play ON DENVER against the spread in All games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 17 Wins and 4 Losses for the since 1992 (+12.6 units)


------------------


NFL MONEYLINE


NFL > (301) KANSAS CITY@ (302) NEW ENGLAND | 2016-01-16 16:35:00 - 2016-01-16 16:35:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 36 Wins and 5 Losses for the last three seasons (+26.9 units)

NFL > (301) KANSAS CITY@ (302) NEW ENGLAND | 2016-01-16 16:35:00 - 2016-01-16 16:35:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in Home games against conference opponents
The record is 13 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+11.8 units)


NFL > (305) SEATTLE@ (306) CAROLINA | 2016-01-17 13:05:00 - 2016-01-17 13:05:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games in games played on a grass field
The record is 27 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (+20.15 units)


NFL > (307) PITTSBURGH@ (308) DENVER | 2016-01-17 16:40:00 - 2016-01-17 16:40:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 15 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.6 units)


NFL > (307) PITTSBURGH@ (308) DENVER | 2016-01-17 16:40:00 - 2016-01-17 16:40:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+10.2 units)


NFL > (303) GREEN BAY@ (304) ARIZONA | 2016-01-16 20:15:00 - 2016-01-16 20:15:00
Play ON ARIZONA using money line in All games in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
The record is 9 Wins and 2 Losses for the since 1992 (+11.45 units)


NFL > (303) GREEN BAY@ (304) ARIZONA | 2016-01-16 20:15:00 - 2016-01-16 20:15:00
Play ON ARIZONA using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 26 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+17 units)


-----------------------

NFL FIRST HALF


NFL > (305) SEATTLE@ (306) CAROLINA | 2016-01-17 13:05:00 - 2016-01-17 13:05:00
Play AGAINST SEATTLE ?>in the first halfin Road games in January games
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the since 1992 (-11.1 units)


-------------------------


NFL TOTALS


NFL > (305) SEATTLE@ (306) CAROLINA | 2016-01-17 13:05:00 - 2016-01-17 13:05:00
Play UNDER CAROLINA on the totalin Home games off a win against a division rival
The record is 6 Overs and 29 Unders for the since 1992 (+22.4 units)

NFL > (307) PITTSBURGH@ (308) DENVER | 2016-01-17 16:40:00 - 2016-01-17 16:40:00
Play UNDER PITTSBURGH on the totalin Road games against conference opponents
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the this season (+7 units)


NFL > (305) SEATTLE@ (306) CAROLINA | 2016-01-17 13:05:00 - 2016-01-17 13:05:00
Play UNDER CAROLINA on the totalin Home games
The record is 2 Overs and 33 Unders for the since 1992 (+30.8 units)


NFL > (305) SEATTLE@ (306) CAROLINA | 2016-01-17 13:05:00 - 2016-01-17 13:05:00
Play UNDER CAROLINA on the totalin All games off a win against a division rival
The record is 18 Overs and 46 Unders for the since 1992 (+26.2 units)

NFL > (305) SEATTLE@ (306) CAROLINA | 2016-01-17 13:05:00 - 2016-01-17 13:05:00
Play OVER CAROLINA on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 7 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)


NFL > (307) PITTSBURGH@ (308) DENVER | 2016-01-17 16:40:00 - 2016-01-17 16:40:00
Play UNDER PITTSBURGH on the totalin All games versus the 1rst half line in road games
The record is 3 Overs and 13 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.7 units)

 

[Lvtexholdm]

Keep posting these info.

 

[CNOTES]

Steelers' big-name injuries could swing odds a touchdown, say oddsmakers


The Steelers could be without Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams versus Denver in the Divisional Round.


NFL Wild Card Weekend was, in a word, wild. The lower-seeded road teams, while not necessarily underdogs, got the best of the home squads, and nowhere was the outcome crazier than in Cincinnati.


Sixth-seeded Pittsburgh went off as 2-point chalk against the third-seeded Bengals, and the Steelers went into the fourth quarter with a 15-0 lead. However, they let Cincinnati come all the way back and ultimately found themselves trailing 16-15 in the waning minutes.


But in a sequence that writing can’t do justice, Ben Roethlisberger came back into the game despite a bum right shoulder, Cincinnati committed two huge penalties, and Pittsburgh kicked a field goal to claim an 18-16 victory and a push for bettors.


It was part of a weekend in which all four road teams won. So the Steelers (11-6 SU, 9-6-2 ATS) will now move on to face top-seeded Denver (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS). The Broncos secured the No. 1 seed and the bye that comes with it when Peyton Manning came off the bench in Week 17 to lead a 27-20 win over San Diego, though Denver fell short as a 10-point favorite.


Manning missed several weeks prior to that, but he will start in Sunday’s AFC divisional playoff game. Roethlisberger has a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder and his status is uncertain. These two teams just met in Week 15 in Pittsburgh, with Roethlisberger rallying Pittsburgh from a 27-13 halftime deficit to a 34-27 victory as a 7.5-point favorite.


Denver will be the home favorite this time around. John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, said Big Ben’s status will force oddsmakers to wait on posting a number.


“Roethlisberger is worth a minimum seven points to a spread, so we’ll wait to confirm his playing status before opening a line,” Lester said. “If he’s ready to go, look for the Broncos to be around 4-point chalk. If he’s out, we’re probably looking at double digits, because Landry Jones is a liability under center. And Jones may not have a legit backup to fall back on.”


Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, said it’s not just Roethlisberger’s status that’s holding things up. Steelers wideout Antonio Brown is in concussion protocol, and running back DeAngelo Williams missed the Wild Card game with a foot injury.


“There is no way I can hang a number on this game until I know all of the participants,” Avello said. “With Roethlisberger, Brown and Williams all questionable, and Landry Jones as the backup, this line could be anything from Denver -4 to -10. The Steelers did beat the Broncos as a 7-point favorite a few weeks ago, but the circumstances have changed.”


Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)


The two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks are still in the hunt for a third straight Super Bowl bid – barely. The No. 6 seed trailed No. 3 seed Minnesota 9-0 entering the fourth quarter Sunday, got a touchdown and a field goal to take the lead, then watched as Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a chip-shot field goal in the final seconds.


That gave Seattle a 10-9 victory in bone-chilling subzero weather, though the Seahawks (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) failed to cash as 4-point road faves. They’ll move on to an NFC Divisional Round game against No. 1 seed Carolina (15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS) next Sunday.


The Panthers made a run at a perfect season until Week 16, when they went to Atlanta and fell 20-13 as 7-point favorites. But Cam Newton & Co. got right back to form in the regular season finale, trampling Tampa Bay 38-10 while giving 10 points at home.


These two teams met in Week 6 in Seattle, with Carolina rallying for a 27-23 victory as a 7-point road underdog.


“The Seahawks’ season should be over, but it's not, and they get a chance to redeem an early-season loss to the top dog in the NFC,” Avello said. “These two have had quite a few exciting battles over the last two years, with Seattle the favorite in all. The Panthers will be the short favorite in this one as they try to keep their perfect home record intact.”


Lester has already had to move his line at Bookmaker.


“The first smart bet came in on Carolina, so we’ve adjusted the spread to -3 (even),” he said. “It certainly feels like the Panthers should be bigger favorites here, but you can’t undervalue the solid second half of the season Seattle had, and the fact that they’re the two-time defending NFC champs. We’ll get to see just how much Cam Newton has matured here. He beat this team in the regular season, but the playoffs are an entirely different beast.”


Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-4.5)


Fifth-seeded Kansas City set the tone in the first game of Wild Card weekend, going to No. 4 seed Houston Saturday and posting a 30-0 blowout as a 3-point favorite. There is no hotter team in the league than the Chiefs (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS), who started the season 1-5 SU and ATS, but have won 11 in a row since then (8-3 ATS) to reach the AFC divisional playoff round.


Waiting for the Chiefs next Saturday will be No. 2 seed New England (12-4 SU, 7-7-2 ATS), which had the table all set to be the AFC’s No. 1 seed before faltering in the last two weeks of the regular season. The Patriots went off as 2.5-point road chalk at the New York Jets in Week 16 and lost 26-20 in overtime, then tumbled 20-10 laying 10 points at Miami in Week 17.


But New England still got a much-needed bye and will likely be as healthy as it’s been in several weeks.


“We opened this spread looking for Patriots money, because the sharps will probably be on Kansas City again,” Lester said. “So far, that’s what has happened, because the early action was on New England, and we are currently offering -5. The total has been hammered all the way down to 43. If the Chiefs can keep it low-scoring, they’ve got a real shot at the upset.”


Avello opened the Pats at -5.


“As a home favorite, that’s the lowest they've been this entire season,” he said. “I felt there initially would be play on the underdog Chiefs, because of their 11-win run and the dismal effort from the Pats in their last two regular-season games. This number may go up if Tom Brady's supporting cast is deemed healthy to play.”


Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-7)


The fifth-seeded Packers made it a weekend sweep for the road teams, erasing an 11-0 deficit at No. 4 seed Washington and ultimately coasting to a 35-18 victory getting two points Sunday. Next Saturday, the Packers (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) will return to Glendale, Ariz., where a couple of weeks ago Green Bay got manhandled by Arizona 38-8 catching six points.


The Cardinals (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS) were steady all season long, winning nine in a row (5-4 ATS) after a 1-2 SU and ATS hiccup in October. Arizona capped that run with the rout of Green Bay in Week 16. But in the regular season finale, laying six points at home to Seattle and still with an outside shot at the No. 1 seed, the Cardinals got boatraced 36-6.


“It's rare to find the Packers getting 7 or more points, but that is the case now and also was in Week 16 in this same location,” Avello said. “It's difficult to say if the old Packers showed up this past weekend against Washington or if the Skins are just a cut below the rest. The Cardinals didn't seem interested in their game against Seattle in Week 17, but I expect to see a more prepared Cardinals team for this one.”


Lester believes Arizona’s loss to Seattle was an anomaly, and that the Pack can expect a stiff challenge in the rematch.


“Green Bay appeared to have found some offensive footing in the second half of the Washington game, but it’s not as if the Redskins have a good defense,” he said. “Arizona’s excellent pass defense will certainly be a test for Aaron Rodgers and his limited wide receiving corps. We felt very comfortable opening at a touchdown, and this number could climb.”

 

[CNOTES]

Don't miss your window to get the most from these NFL Divisional Round bets


In three previous playoff games, Cam Newton has five interceptions and a lost fumble – numbers which no doubt the Seahawks are aware of.


Spread to bet now


Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)


You believe that late-season swan dive was just a mirage, that the Pack is (really) back and perhaps just one week away from getting revenge for last season’s epic flameout in Seattle? Early money is down on the Packers in this one - no doubt the product of the books attaching an extra half-point to the line.


The line appears more than reasonable, though, considering Green Bay’s struggles late in the season and the fact that the Cardinals have had an extra week to rest in the wake of their meaningless 30-point loss at home to the Seahawks. Much of the early money is probably a reflection of the Packers’ dominance in the Wild Card game, and the betting should even out as we go through the week, keeping the line at 7.5.


Spread to wait on


Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-5)


The issue in New England is health - or rather lack of it. Late-season tanking allowed the Pats to keep Tom Brady (barely) and Rob Gronkowski healthy enough, but no one knows whether the offensive line – not all that great to begin with – will be anything near what now constitutes full strength.


And a sieve for an o-line means pressure on Brady, which means he needs to get the ball out quickly, which means receivers can’t get into even intermediate routes, which means that it kind of all depends whether Edelman is back and going at pretty much to 100 percent.


Edelman has missed five games with a broken foot, and in the last six (including the game in which he was injured), New England is 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS. And now, the Chiefs head to Gillette Stadium, on an 11-game run of all runs. Hang on to see what comes out of the Pats camp on the injury front.


Total to watch


Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (44)


It’s all about the style and show for Cam Newton, so don’t expect the flamboyant QB to morph into an Alex Smith-type game manager now that the spotlight is squaring on him. Newton is going to want to let it fly and that might be a problem, because Newton has shown a tendency to give the ball up.


In three previous playoff games he has five interceptions and a lost fumble – numbers which no doubt the Seahawks are aware of (of course, that Newton and the current MVP-edition Newton are 180-degree different). A wild game should produce more than its share of points. On the other side, be aware that five straight Seahawks games have gone Under.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Division Round

Kansas City @ New England

Game 301-302
January 16, 2016 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
133.963
New England
142.565
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 8 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 5
43
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-5); Over

Green Bay @ Arizona

Game 303-304
January 16, 2016 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
139.129
Arizona
141.026
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+7 1/2); Over


Pittsburgh @ Denver

Game 307-308
January 17, 2016 @ 4:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
134.281
Denver
143.614
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 9 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 6 1/2
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-6 1/2); Under

Seattle @ Carolina

Game 305-306
January 17, 2016 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
142.882
Carolina
141.326
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+3); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Saturday, January 16

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KANSAS CITY (12 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/16/2016, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in playoff games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 172-132 ATS (+26.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 107-79 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 75-51 ATS (+18.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against AFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (11 - 6) at ARIZONA (13 - 3) - 1/16/2016, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 17

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SEATTLE (11 - 6) at CAROLINA (15 - 1) - 1/17/2016, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
CAROLINA is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (11 - 6) at DENVER (12 - 4) - 1/17/2016, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 0-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Division Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 16

4:35 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. NEW ENGLAND
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Kansas City

8:15 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing Arizona
Green Bay is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Arizona is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
Arizona is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Green Bay


Sunday, January 17

1:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. CAROLINA
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
Carolina is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games

4:40 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. DENVER
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Denver
Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Denver is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

Key NFL Injury Updates


Wild Card weekend is in the rear view mirror, with all four road teams emerging victorious on the opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs. One game was a blowout, with the Chiefs destroying the Texans. Two games were coin flips that came down to last second field goals, with the Steelers making their field goal while the Vikings missed theirs, allowing Seattle to survive and advance. And the fourth game was a close contest that turned into a blowout by the end of the fourth quarter thanks to a performance from Green Bay that was as good as anything that we’ve seen from the Packers since October.


The mainstream media will focus on the quarterbacks and the head coaches, because that’s what the mainstream media does. In the mainstream world, Andy Reid; noted for a decade worth of playoff failures in Philadelphia, is now a ‘genius’ because his team is on an eleven game winning streak. Aaron Rodgers, off the worst statistical season of his career, is now back to his elite self; thanks to one playoff win against a banged up defense.


Serious bettors know one thing about the NFL Playoffs – health matters! Do the Chiefs win by 30 at Houston if Brian Hoyer has his left tackle, Duane Brown, protecting him? Do the Steelers execute their game winning drive in the final minute if it was Landry Jones behind center instead of Ben Roethlisberger? Does Aaron Rodgers rally the Packers from behind if the Redskins secondary was healthy? Minnesota was missing key starters on all three units of their defense in their regular season meeting with Seattle, allowing 38 points and 433 yards as a result. In the playoff rematch, the Vikings defense was healthy again and the Seahawks were held to 10 points – all in the fourth quarter – and 226 total yards.


Injuries matter, and they matter the most here in January when teams stack up against other elite competitors. This year’s Super Bowl champion is every bit as likely to be determined by which top notch contender is healthy enough to execute their gameplan effectively over the next few weekends as any other factor. With that in mind, let’s take a brief look at the injury situation for each of the eight teams still standing.


The Green Bay Packers suffered a couple of key injuries on Sunday, but, in general, they are getting healthier. Key offensive lineman Brian Bulaga was healthy enough to go against Washington, and his counterpart at the other tackle spot, David Bakhtiari could be back on the field this Sunday at Arizona. Both guys missed the Week 16 matchup against the Cardinals and Aaron Rodgers took eight sacks as a result!


The Packers won on Sunday without starting CB Sam Shields, still in concussion protocol. There’s a decent chance Shields could be back on the field this week. But WR Davante Adams went down with a knee injury on Sunday. Although he avoided surgery, his status for Saturday’s game at Arizona is very questionable, potentially leaving Rodgers without one of his better targets for the rematch against the Cards.


The Arizona Cardinals lost pro bowl safety Tyrann Mathieu following that Week 16 win over Green Bay, and his absence was felt immediately – they got picked apart by Russell Wilson in a blowout loss the following week. But other than the Mathieu injury, Bruce Arians squad is fairly healthy, with LB Markus Golden and DR Josh Mauro both expected back this week. Most importantly, they didn’t get riddled with key injuries down the stretch; in good shape heading into their playoff opener.


The New England Patriots got last weekend off, and they needed it. No other playoff team came close to suffering the rash of injuries that the Pats have suffered, but a whole host of injured Patriots could be back on the field next Saturday.


New England will get back WR Danny Amendola following a nine week absence. LB Donta’ Hightower is expected to suit up, as is key pass rusher Chandler Jones and elite offensive lineman Sebastian Vollmer. All four guys are what I would call ‘impact players’, and their return to the field makes the Pats a much, much better team than the one that went 2-4 to close out the regular season.


The Kansas City Chiefs have injuries to their top three pass rushers, bad news against Tom Brady! Tama Hali, Justin Houston and Dee Ford are all ailing, but all three are likely to suit up on Saturday. But their top deep threat, WR Jeremy Maclin, suffered a high ankle sprain in the win over Houston. Even if Maclin suits up in Foxboro, he’s not likely to be his explosive self. KC also lost starting offensive lineman Laurent Duvernay-Tardif to a concussion, joining starting center Mitch Morse in concussion protocol moving forward. If that duo doesn’t suit up this weekend, it’s going to have a major effect on Kansas City’s chances.


The Carolina Panthers suffered two major late season injuries. The Panthers lost two of their top three cornerbacks to season enders, with Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere going down. That being said, this team was as healthy as it gets at the NFL level for a good portion of the season, and just about everyone who sat Week 17 for resting purposes should suit up on Sunday.


The Seattle Seahawks late season resurgence has come entirely without RB Marshawn Lynch on the field. They went 3-4 SU in the seven games that Lynch was healthy enough to play in. I don’t think he moves the needle one iota – not even worth a half point to the spread, or to the eventual result. But Lynch is a ‘superstar’ and his status moving forward is likely to affect the pointspread, at least a little bit, as he tries to recover from an abdominal injury that has kept him sidelined for the last two months.


That being said, the Seahawks came out of Sunday’s game at Minnesota virtually unscathed. The only new player on their injury report Monday morning was the punter, Jon Ryan, who had his nose bloodied but was still fine to finish the game against the Vikings. I’d be very surprised if Ryan wasn’t good to go at Carolina.


The Pittsburgh Steelers injury concerns are very real as they get ready for the Broncos. Ben Roethlisberger’s got a bum shoulder – one notable report listed it as a separated shoulder -- but early reports indicate that he’s likely to suit up. WR Antonio Brown needs to go through concussion protocol before he’ll be allowed to play, although early week signs look good in that regard. And even with cluster injuries at running back, it was a non-factor on Sunday, with Jordan Todman and Fitz Toussaint filling the void effectively. That being said, other than the skill position question marks, Pittsburgh is at near full health in the trenches (center Maurkice Pouncey has been out since October) and on the defensive side of the football.


Of course, the Denver Broncos have a QB injury question mark of their own, with Peyton Manning having only nine pass attempts under his belt since his injury/benching in Week 10 against the Chiefs. According to the latest practice report coming out of Colorado, head coach Gary Kubiak was confident that his QB was good to go. “He looks really fresh out there and is throwing the ball well.”


Denver got starting cornerback Aqib Talib and starting tight end Owen Daniels back in practice last week, and LB Brandon Marshall should be good to go by Sunday. Kubiak was very positive about the injury situation heading into their game against the Steelers: "We’ve gotten some guys freshened up and in a good frame of mind. It looks like we’re going to be pretty close maybe to Wednesday being about as close to where we started back four months ago. That’s a good thing.”