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[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet


Divisional Round




Saturday - Jan, 16


Kansas City at New England, 4:35 ET
Kansas City: 2-10 ATS in playoff games
New England: 17-7 ATS in home lined games


Green Bay at Arizona, 8:15 ET
Green Bay: 8-2 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins
Arizona: 43-26 ATS after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game




Sunday - Jan, 17


Seattle at Carolina, 1:05 ET
Seattle: 7-0 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent
Carolina: 6-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3


Pittsburgh at Denver, 4:40 ET
Pittsburgh: 1-5 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders
Denver: 7-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of last 4 games

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Saturday
January 15, 2016




The ‘under’ produced a 3-1 record in the opening round and all of the results were clear-cut. The lone ‘over’ winner occurred in the Green Bay-Washington matchup, which was also the highest total posted in the Wild Card round. Total bettors mixing it up with half-time wagers saw the ‘under’ go 3-1 in both the first and second halves last weekend.


Divisional Playoff History


In last year’s second round of the postseason, bettors saw the first two games go ‘over’ on Saturday while the ‘under’ connected in each game on Sunday. Including those results, the ‘under’ is 5-3 in the Divisional Playoffs the last two years but the ‘over’ was on an 11-1 run in the three previous seasons.


TOTAL HISTORY (2004-2014)


2004 (TOTAL 2-2) 2005 (UNDER 3-1)


Pittsburgh 20 N.Y. Jets 17 - OVER 35 Denver 27 New England 13 - UNDER 44


Atlanta 47 St. Louis 17 - OVER 48.5 Seattle 20 Washington 10 - UNDER 41


Philadelphia 27 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 47.5 Carolina 29 Chicago 21 - OVER 30.5


New England 20 Indianapolis 3 - UNDER 52.5 Pittsburgh 21 Indianapolis 18 - UNDER 47.5
2006 (TOTAL 2-2) 2007 (TOTAL 2-2)


New Orleans 27 Philadelphia 24 - OVER 49 Green Bay 42 Seattle 20 - OVER 44


Indianapolis 15 Baltimore 6 - UNDER 41.5 New England 31 Jacksonville 20 - UNDER 51.5


Chicago 27 Seattle 24 - OVER 37.5 San Diego 28 Indianapolis 24 - OVER 46.5


New England 24 San Diego 21 - UNDER 46.5 N.Y. Giants 21 Dallas 17 - UNDER 47
2008 (UNDER 3-1) 2009 (UNDER 3-1)


Arizona 33 Carolina 13 - UNDER 49.5 New Orleans 45 Arizona 14 - OVER 57


Baltimore 13 Tennessee 10 - UNDER 33.5 Indianapolis 20 Baltimore 3 - UNDER 44


Pittsburgh 35 San Diego 24 - OVER 38 Minnesota 34 Dallas 3 - UNDER 45.5


Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants 11 - UNDER 39 N.Y. Jets 17 San Diego 14 - UNDER 42.5
2010 (OVER 4-0) 2011 (OVER 3-1)


Pittsburgh 31 Baltimore 24 - OVER 37.5 New Orleans 32 San Francisco 36 - OVER 46.5


Green Bay 48 Atlanta 21 - OVER 43.5 Denver 10 New England 45 - OVER 50


Chicago 35 Seattle 21 - OVER 42.5 Houston 13 Baltimore 20 - UNDER 33


N.Y. Jets 28 New England 21 - OVER 45 N.Y. Giants 37 Green Bay 20 - OVER 54
2012 (OVER 4-0) 2013 (UNDER 3-1)


Baltimore 38 Denver 35 - OVER 44 New Orleans 15 Seattle 23 - UNDER 44


Green Bay 31 San Francisco 45 - OVER 45 Indianapolis 22 New England 43 - OVER 51


Seattle 28 Atlanta 30 - OVER 46 San Francisco 23 Carolina 10 - UNDER 41


Houston 28 New England 41 - OVER 50.5 San Diego 17 Denver 24 - UNDER 55
2014 (TOTAL 2-2) 2015


New England 35 Baltimore 31 - OVER 47.5 Kansas City at New England


Seattle 31 Carolina 17 - OVER 40 Green Bay at Arizona


Green Bay 26 Dallas 21 - UNDER 52.5 Seattle at Carolina


Indianapolis 24 Denver 13 - UNDER 52.5 Pittsburgh at Denver


Saturday, Jan. 16


Kansas City at New England (CBS, 4:35 p.m. ET)


Of the four game set for this weekend, this game has had the most movement. The opener was sent out at 44 ½ and had dropped to 42 as of Friday morning but the number was starting to push back up to 43.


Due to the key injuries for both teams and the form of the Chiefs, you can see why the ‘under’ received some early action. Kansas City is ranked in scoring defense at 16.9 points per game and when head coach Andy Reid gets a lead, he bleeds the clock like nobody else.


We shouldn’t necessarily dismiss the Chiefs’ 11-game winning streak but some pundits, including myself, question the competition. Kansas City hasn’t played a quarterback even close to Tom Brady during this run and the Chiefs haven’t played a comparable defense like the Patriots (19.7 PPG).


What does impress me about KC is its ability to score on the road. The Chiefs are averaging 29.1 PPG and that includes a 45-point effort in a neutral based game from London.


New England has looked sluggish the last two weeks of the regular season, partly due to injuries across the offensive line and in the receiving corps. The offense averaged 15 PPG and they dropped both games, which were on the road.


At home, New England averaged 31.6 PPG this season and it’s had two weeks to get ready for the Chiefs. How healthy they are is a major question mark but you can’t ignore what the Patriots have done the last four years at home in the Divisional Playoffs.


2015 – New England 35 Baltimore 31
2014 – New England 43 Indianapolis 22
2013 - New England 41 Houston 28
2012 – New England 45 Denver 10


As of Friday, New England has 12 players listed as ‘questionable’ and while most are expected to go, they’re obviously banged up. The Chiefs are the healthier of the two but the status and health of wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (ankle) remains a big question mark.


If Maclin can’t go, Chiefs QB Alex Smith could go into check down mode and that’s better for the ‘under’ but make a note that the gunslinger has a 10-1 TD/INT in four playoff games and his teams (49ers, Chiefs) averaged 31.8 PPG.


These teams met last season and KC posted a 41-14 victory at home and the ‘over’ (45 ½) connected.


New England has watched the ‘over/under’ go 4-4 at home this season while the Chiefs enter this game with a 5-3-1 ‘over’ mark on the road.


Fearless Prediction: When I first saw the line on this game, I felt that the Chiefs were the play because New England is usually laying at least a touchdown at home in the playoffs. The last time it occurred was in 2010 and Baltimore won 33-14 as a four-point road underdog. Déjà vu at Foxboro? I’m buying it and for our purposes, I’m taking the Kansas City Team Total Over 19 and Over 43 for the game as well.


Green Bay at Arizona (NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET)


The highest total (49 ½) on the board this weekend takes place in the desert and it’s hard to argue against the ‘over’ in this spot. Arizona is ranked first in total offense (408 YPG), second in scoring (30.6 PPG) and it will be facing a Packers defense (20.1 PPG) that is statistically the worst unit left in the playoffs.


The Cardinals lit up the Packers 38-8 in Week 16 at home and the ‘under’ (50.5) cashed in that game. Arizona led 17-0 at halftime and the game changed late in the second quarter as Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was picked off in the Cardinals end zone when the game was 10-0. In the second-half, Arizona posted a pair of back-to-back touchdowns and wound up sacking Rodgers eight times.


Rodgers followed up that loss by laying another egg at home in Week 17 versus Minnesota but he looked sharp in last week’s Wild Card win albeit against the Redskins defense, which is far from great. The Packers picked up the pace a bit last week and most believe they’ll continue to push the tempo in this spot, provided they’re executing.


Green Bay does lose WR Davante Adams to injury this week but does get the services of left tackle David Bakhtiari back and he’s a huge upgrade.


Defensively, the ‘Skins moved the ball on the Packers early but left points off the board and probably should’ve been up 16-0 early. Despite last week’s game going ‘over’ the number, Green Bay has seen the ‘under’ go 11-6 this season but five of the ‘over’ tickets have cashed on the road.


Arizona has leaned slightly to the high side (9-7) this season but the ‘under’ closed on a 5-1 run. The Cardinals have run the ball extremely well at times this season and part of me believes head coach Bruce Arians might try to establish this on Saturday, especially with QB Carson Palmer’s lack of playoff experience.


Even if he starts off slow, it's hard to imagine Palmer being handcuffed for long. Arizona has advantages on offense and it scored 51 touchdowns, plus the defense and special teams added seven scores this season.


Coincidentally these teams met in the 2009-10 playoffs and Arizona held off Green Bay 51-45 in a wild shootout as the ‘over’ (49) easily cashed.


While all signs point to a shootout, make a note at the above table and check out the games with totals listed in the fifties. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 the last four games with numbers this high and I’m guessing this total closes in that neighborhood on Saturday.


Fearless Prediction: Arizona is receiving a lot of “Teaser” action this week but I’m expecting a bunch of folks to play the Packers-Over combo, especially if Arizona goes to -7 ½ at most shops. I’m tossing out what Green Bay did last week and focusing on its outcomes against quality opponents (Top 4 seeds). The Packers gave up 29, 37 and 38 to the Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals respectively. With that being said, I’m buying Arizona Team Total Over 29. For those looking at the 'over' in the game, make a note that the 'under' went 31-21 in primetime games this season and that includes last week's result between the Bengals and Steelers.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Sunday
January 15, 2016


Sunday’s Divisional Playoff action features a pair of rematches from this year’s regular season and three of the four teams have been familiar with the second round of the postseason recently.


Denver will be playing in its fifth straight Divisional Playoff game and the ‘over’ has gone 2-2 in the previous four while the Broncos are just 1-3 straight up.


Seattle beat Carolina 31-17 in this round last year and the ‘over’ (40) connected with a late fourth quarter surge. This will be the fourth straight Divisional Playoff game for the ‘Hawks and just the second time they’re on the road. The lone road game during this span watched them lose 30-28 at Atlanta in the 2012-13 playoffs.


Along with the aforementioned result, the Panthers played in the 2013-14 Divisional Playoff round and lost 23-10 at home to San Francisco.


Pittsburgh hasn’t advanced this far in the postseason since the 2010-11 season and it defeated Baltimore 31-24. The ‘over’ cashed in that game and is 3-1 in the last four Divisional Playoff appearances for Pittsburgh.


Some bettors and handicappers don’t buy into trends and you can understand why sometimes due to other key factors such as injuries, which is what Pittsburgh is dealing with on Sunday.


Sunday, Jan. 17


Seattle at Carolina (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Most shops sent this total out at 44 and its held steady all week. There’s a chance of some rain in Charlotte but temperatures are expected in the mid-forties and not too much wind (5 to 10 mph).


Carolina enters this game with the best scoring offense in the league (31.2 points per game) and it’s been better lighting up the scoreboard at home (33 PPG) than anybody too. Seattle was held in check last week at Minnesota to 10 points, which was its lowest output of the season.


Was that weather related or is Minnesota’s defense that good? The temperatures played a factor and the Vikings unit is solid but Carolina’s unit was statistically greater in total yards (322 YPG) and just behind them in scoring (19.2 PPG).


Prior to being stifled in the Wild Card round, QB Russell Wilson and company closed the season by scoring 29-plus points in seven of their final eight games. On the road, the team averaged 36.6 PPG in three games during this offensive run.


While the ‘Hawks offense has been great, the defense has been better. They’ve held five of their last six opponents to 13 points or less and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-1. Seattle’s defense (285 YPG) ranked second in total yards and first in points allowed (16.8).


In the first meeting between the pair in mid-October from CenturyLink Field, the Panthers dropped the Seahawks 27-23 and this game was on an ‘under’ pace as Seattle led 10-7 at halftime. Carolina had more yards (383-334) and first downs (25-14) in the game but the biggest difference for the Panthers was red zone touchdowns (3-1). Make a note that Seattle tight end Jimmy Graham (8 receptions, 140 yards) had his best game of the season in the loss and he’s done for the season due to an injury.


Will the ‘Hawks be able to convert in the second go ‘round on the road? Their last three trips to Carolina resulted in wins and ‘under’ tickets with the winning touchdown being scored in the fourth quarter of all three victories.


2014 – Seattle 13 Carolina 9 UNDER 44.5
2013 – Seattle 12 Carolina 7 UNDER 44.5
2012 – Seattle 16 Carolina 12 UNDER 42.5


There is no doubt that Carolina is much improved and QB Cam Newton is the likely MVP of the regular season. His crazy numbers were the main reason that the Panthers were the second-best ‘over’ team in the league this season with a 10-5-1 record and that included a 5-2-1 mark at Bank of America Stadium.


However, it’s hard to forget that Newton is 1-2 all-time in the playoffs and his TD-INT ratio is 5:5. The ‘over’ has gone 2-1 in those games.


Fearless Predictions: In last week’s installment, I touched briefly on Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch and how he might screw up the offensive chemistry. He didn’t play but he’s expected to suit up Sunday and I’m going to guess that he’ll silence everybody this weekend. Seattle is 2-0 this year when he touches the rock 20 times or more, the victories by 20-3 and 13-12. In playoff games with the ‘Hawks, the club is 5-1 when he gets over 100 yards and you can probably figure out the loss (SBXLIX). In these six games, Seattle has averaged 27 PPG. I’m buying Seattle Team Total Over 21 on Sunday and Over 44 for the game as well.


Pittsburgh at Denver (CBS, 4:40 p.m. ET)


The total on this game is hovering between 39 and 40 points and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop by kickoff. The Steelers won’t have wide receiver Antonio Brown or running back DeAngelo Williams available, plus quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is ‘questionable’ but dealing with a serious shoulder injury.


If all three were healthy, you’d be staring at a total in the mid-forties maybe higher since QB Peyton Manning is back under center for Denver and Pittsburgh’s defense is very suspect, especially if they can’t get pressure on the quarterback.


The Steelers beat the Broncos 34-27 in Week 14 at home but Denver led 27-13 at halftime and backup QB Brock Osweler lit them up for 296 yards and three touchdowns. Big Ben got his too (380 yards, 3 TDs) but Brown compiled a monster game (16 receptions, 189 yards, 2 TDs) against Denver.


Denver’s defense didn’t have a great day versus Pittsburgh but it’s only allowing 18.5 PPG at home and it enters this game very healthy. The Broncos watched the ‘under’ go 5-2-1 at home this season and the Steelers enter this game with an 11-6 record to the ‘under’ and that includes a 7-2 mark on the road.


Including the result from this past December, the ‘over’ has cashed in three straight meetings between the pair and eight of the last 10 going back to 1997. The last playoff encounter between the two teams took place in the 2011-12 playoffs and Tim Tebow helped Denver beat Pittsburgh 29-23 in overtime at home.


Since Manning arrived in Denver, the club is 2-2 at home in the playoffs and the ‘under’ is 3-1 in those games. Mike Tomlin ‘over’ record with Pittsburgh in the playoffs stands at 8-1-1 in 10 games after last week’s ‘under’ result versus Cincinnati.


Fearless Predictions: Everybody is expecting Denver to rip a short-handed Pittsburgh squad and it very well could. However, when Big Ben missed four games in the regular season the defense for the Steelers stepped up and only allowed an average of 19.8 PPG and that includes a 13-point effort against a quality Arizona squad. In four home games with Peyton starting at QB, Denver only averaged 21 PPG. I think this game will be tighter than expected and the Broncos struggle offensively. With that being said, I’m leaning Denver Team Total Under 24 in this game.

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - DP
January 15, 2016


Divisional Playoffs


Las Vegas sports books haven't even seen 10 percent of the action they'll take in over the weekend in the four NFL divisional playoff games, but early indications show it’s going to be a teaser kind of weekend for bettors.


And why not?


The spreads on the games are perfect for the teaser with a couple of 7’s and a few dogs crossing key numbers. Best of all for teaser bettors is they have some recent history on their sound during this round. How does the all-way side teaser going 7-1 in the Divisional Playoff round last year sound? How about 19-5 in the past three years?


The sports books set some nice numbers where all eight remaining teams usually play to their true ratings. The reflection of how good those numbers are is what happens if you add 6-points to each side. Last season three of the four divisional games were all-way side winners.


Can you imagine that? Just walking to the betting counter this week and saying, "I’m betting the line is perfect and I’ll take both the Patriots and Chiefs in a 6-point teaser." Then the Patriots win 20-16, and you cash. Don’t try that, really, it’s not a strong betting move, but it’s an example of what has been happening lately in this round. These spreads are tight.


The one spread that still has some loose ends is Sunday’s game with Pittsburgh at Denver, where most sports books kept the game off the board all week until posting Broncos -7 on Friday. Will Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder) play? That is the main question.


"We didn’t post a line until today (Friday) on the Denver game because there was too much uncertainty with the Steelers key performers," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. "Antonio Brown is now out, Roethlisberger hasn’t thrown a pass in practice yet (through Thursday) and (DeAngelo) Williams is likely out. That’s basically their entire offensive attack in limbo."


Osborne is still waiting on any Roethlisberger news, but posted Denver -7 (no total) Friday without the news just because of all the weekend action that has started to heat up. It’s the NFL playoffs. People are excited and they want to bet all the games.


CG Technology books have been playing the wait and see game with Pittsburgh while posting a number for low limits -- wise guys get only $1,000. They were one of the few books in town in town with a number posted all week.


"We opened Denver at -6 on Monday knowing there we’re lots of injury issues surrounding the Steelers and we we’re steady at -6.5 for most of the week and got mostly Denver money," said Jason Simbal, VP of risk management for CG Technology.


"So we moved to -7 on Thursday, then when Brown was ruled out Friday we moved to -7 -120 and then someone immediately took +7 EVEN, so we’re down -7 -115 now."


Low limits or not, CG Tech books have already established that they’ll need Pittsburgh on Sunday with their small sample size of action. They have the total posted at 39.5, along with the Westgate SuperBook and Coast Casinos.


The big news Simbal and every Las Vegas sports book is waiting for is how Roethlisberger looked in Friday’s practice, and most of all whether or not he even threw a pass. He participated in Thursday’s practice, but only practiced hand-offs and didn’t throw.


"Initially, I was thinking the Broncos would be -9.5 if Ben doesn’t play, but combined with Brown being OUT and Williams most likely OUT, that deserves to be represented more in the number, so I’m looking at -10 or -10.5 if Ben doesn’t play," said Simbal.


Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White said the drop off from Roethlisberger to back-up quarterback Landry Jones is worth about 5-points to the number.


Brown isn’t quite worth a full point, but as the best receiver in the game he’s worth about an eighth of a point. White also said Peyton Manning is an upgrade of almost 3-points over Brock Osweiler, so when looking at the number of Broncos -7, it’s almost a halfway Big Ben in/out number. If everyone was healthy, Denver might have started about -5.


Sunday's early game features the No. 1 scoring offense against the No. 1 scoring defense and the number has been on a roller coaster ride.


"The game we’ve had the most fun with booking this week has been Carolina and Seattle," said Simbal. "We opened Carolina -1.5 (Sunday night) and we had some large wagers lay it and also lay -2. But when we got +3, we started seeing large action come back on Seattle taking us back down to where we started."


It’s not unusual to see sophisticated betting groups seed an early point-spread at a few books around town to help set the market hoping other books follow and then they can come back strong at many more books at the optimal number, which in this case was getting Seattle +3.


"We just don’t want the game to land ’3’. We started at -3 and we’re at -1.5 now," said Osborne, who doesn’t want to get sided.


Many books opened the Panthers money-line at -150 (+130 on Seattle) and it’s down as low as -125/+105. The total is consistent at 44.


The CG Tech books also have another rooting interest in the Panthers game because of their stance on Super Bowl futures.


"We do extremely well with the Panthers (+430) to win the Super Bowl. It‘s our best decision," said Simbal. Hardly anyone had been betting them during the season, while Seattle (+430) has been the most popular to where they are our biggest risk."


The Patriots opened as 5-point home favorites over the Chiefs for Saturday's early game and that number has dropped to -4.5.


"We’re seeing equal action on straight bets and parlays with the Patriots and Chiefs," said Osborne. "The big thing that stands out on this game is the Chiefs money line (+190) and also teasers with the Chiefs."


The casual teaser bettor might say, "what's wrong with taking +10.5 with Kansas City on an 11-game win streak while our last image of the Patriots in action was getting outgained by 242 yards at Miami in a 20-10 loss when home field was at stake. Plus, how's Rob Gronkowski doing?"


The Cardinals are 7-point home favorites over the Packerson Saturday night, and its been the most steady number of the week.


"Parlays and straight bets are down the middle with the Cardinals and Packers, but were loaded on Cardinals teaser action," said Osborne, who Friday dropped the total from the opening number of 50 down to 49.5.


"Our biggest teaser risk of the weekend so far is with Denver and Arizona," said Simbal.

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ben practices, still questionable
January 15, 2016


PITTSBURGH (AP) Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw in practice on Friday but remains questionable for Sunday's AFC divisional playoff game against Denver.


Roethlisberger is dealing with a sprained right shoulder sustained in last weekend's wild-card win over Cincinnati. Roethlisberger was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday but was a full participant in the final major workout before the Steelers face the Broncos.


Coach Mike Tomlin says Roethlisberger did everything he was asked on Friday.


While the team remains optimistic Roethlisberger will play, wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back DeAngelo Williams are officially out. Brown is still going through the NFL's concussion protocol after getting hurt in the final moments against the Bengals. Williams will miss a second straight week with an injured right foot.

 

[CNOTES]

I HAD KC AND THE UNDER IN THE FIRST GAME.........


SATURDAY, JANUARY 16


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


GB at ARI 08:15 PM


ARI -7.5 BEST BET


U 49.5 BEST BET

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, January 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday's NFL Divisional betting preview: Seahawks at Panthers and Steelers at Broncos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Peyton Manning makes his first start for the Broncos since Nov. 15. Denver is currently 7.5-point favorites.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 40.5)

The Seattle Seahawks escaped a near-certain defeat in the opening round of the playoffs and continue their bid for a third straight trip to the Super Bowl when they visit the top-seeded Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon. Seattle squeezed out a 10-9 victory at Minnesota last weekend when Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard field-goal attempt in the final minute.

The sixth-seeded Seahawks now get a chance to avenge a regular-season home loss to the Panthers, who erased a 13-point, second-half deficit in a 27-23 victory at Seattle in Week 6. The Seahawks have reeled off six consecutive road wins, surrendering a scant total of 43 points in that stretch. Carolina, which won its first 14 games and pounded Tampa Bay 38-10 in the season finale, was expecting a rematch against Seattle. "After we played them, we said, 'We'll see you again in the playoffs,'" Panthers star cornerback Josh Norman said. "It's cool. Fate gives you these chances to prove yourself worthy."

TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Since opening as 3-point home favorites, the Panthers were bet all the way down to -1, before bouncing back to -2.5. The total has yet to move off its opening number of 44.

INJURY REPORT:

Seahawks - DE M. Bennett (probable Sunday, toe), RB M. Lynch (probable Sunday, hernia), TE L. Wilson (probable Sunday, concussion), FB W. Tukuafu (doubtful Sunday, hamstring).

Panthers - LB D. Mayo (probable Sunday, hamstring), S K. Coleman (probable Sunday, foot), WR T. Ginn (questionable Sunday, knee), LB A. Klein (questionable Sunday, hamstring), RB F. Whittaker (out Sunday, ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: It could be wet in Charlotte on Sunday. It will be partly cloudy wuth a 54 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the low 40's and there will be a 5-7 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southeast end zone.

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-6) - Panthers (-5.5) + home field (-3) = Panthers -2.5

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Panthers pick'em and that number got decimated by the public, forcing us to get to 3 within hours of opening our number. We got to 3 flat before the sharp's got involved, they took +3 -110, +3 -115 and +3 -120, at which point we went down to 2.5 and eventually 2 flat. Then the public got involved again and we got back to 2.5 flat and then -2.5 -120, which is our current number. This game has seen some serious line movement and I honestly hate our position going into tomorrow. This should be a very closely contest matchup and I could see 3 coming into play quite easily. In fact, it's a game that has Panthers by 3 written all over it, and if it lands 3 as of now we get crushed. We've only written Seahawks money at the number 3, so all that money would be refunded and all the action on the Panthers that drove us to 3 would cash."

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (11-6, 8-8-1 ATS, 7-10 O/U): After surviving ice-box conditions in Minnesota, Seattle is hoping for the return of running back Marshawn Lynch, who practiced fully last week for the first time since undergoing abdominal surgery on Nov. 25 but said he wasn't ready to go against the Vikings. Russell Wilson, who threw for 241 yards and a touchdown in the earlier meeting, had 24 TD passes and one interception in a seven-game span before being limited to 142 yards against Minnesota. As good as Seattle's defense has been on the road, it allowed four 80-yard TD drives to the Panthers in Week 6.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (15-1, 11-5 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U): Cam Newton was picked off twice in the first matchup, but he has thrown for 21 touchdowns and only one interception over his last eight games. Greg Olsen continued a trend of tight ends burning Seattle's defense by hauling in seven passes for 131 yards, including the go-ahead 26-yard TD with under a minute to play. Jonathan Stewart, who ran for 78 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the earlier meeting, will return to the lineup after missing three games due to a foot injury. Carolina's defense sacked Wilson four times and is third in the league with 40.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the NFC's No. 1 seed in this rematch from the regular season with 63 percent of wagers on the Panthers. As for the total 68 percent of wagers are on the under.



Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 40.5)

Peyton Manning knows all too well that the playoffs present a one-and-done scenario. With nine defeats in his team's initial playoff game on his resume, the 39-year-old Manning isn't taking anything for granted heading into the AFC West-champion Denver Broncos' divisional-round clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.

"Playoffs, anything goes," Manning told reporters on Wednesday. "Everything's on the table." The veteran missed Denver's 34-27 setback to Pittsburgh on Dec. 20 due to a left foot injury but entered the team's regular-season finale and engineered four scoring drives en route to a 27-20 victory over San Diego. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns while All-Pro Antonio Brown made 16 catches for 189 yards in the initial meeting with the Broncos, but both stars were injured during Pittsburgh's 18-16 wild-card win over AFC North-rival Cincinnati last week. Roethlisberger returned to the contest despite nursing a shoulder injury while Brown was drilled by Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict and is in the NFL's concussion protocol.

TV: 4:40 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: With injuries to several key players to the Steelers the line was held off the board for the majority of the week and eventually opened the Broncos as 5-point faves and quickly moved to -7. With Antonio Brown out the line moved to -8 and has settled back down at Broncos -7.5. The total has been bet up two points from 38.5 to 40.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Steelers - FB W. Johnson (probable Sunday, hamstring), QB B. Roethlisberger (probable Sunday, shoulder), LB R. Shazier (probable Sunday, knee), DE C. Heyward (probable Sunday, back), S R. Golden (probable Sunday, shoulder), WR S. Coates (questionable Sunday, illness), CB D. Grant (questionable Sunday, groin), RB D. Williams (out Sunday, foot), WR A. Brown (out Sunday, head).

Broncos - LB D. Ware (probable Sunday, knee), S O. Bolden (probable Sunday, groin), S D. Stewart (probable Sunday, hamstring), CB C. Harris (probable Sunday, shoulder), QB B. Osweiler (questionable Sunday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a nice day for football in Denver. It will be partly cloudy with just a 12 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the mid 30's. There will just be minimal wind.

POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-3.5) - Broncos (-3) + home field (-3) = Broncos -2.5

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened up a very bad number on the Broncos, opening up -4 and we paid the price for a poor number. Our limits were low at the time as we had the game circled with Big Ben nursing a shoulder surgery and Antonio Brown very questionable because he was going through Concussion Protocol, we weren't exactly sure what to open. While we opened up low, we booked this game very aggressively and it didn't take much for us to get to 6, then 6.5, and eventually to 7; then news broke that Brown wasn't going to play tomorrow we immediately went to 7.5 which is our current number. So far roughly 65% of the action is on the Broncos, most of that action between the numbers of 4 to 7 points, and any and all Steelers money is on them at +7.5, so once again we're not in the best position going into this game if it lands 7 it's going to hurt."

ABOUT THE STEELERS (11-6, 9-6-2 ATS, 6-11 O/U): With a sprained AC joint and torn ligaments in his shoulder, Roethlisberger likely isn't going to throw the ball around with the same frequency (season-high 55 attempts) that he did in the first meeting with the Broncos. Should Brown sit out on Sunday, Roethlisberger will turn to wideouts Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton - as well as trusty tight end Heath Miller - to move the ball down the field. Playing without veteran DeAngelo Williams (foot), the duo of Jordan Todman (65 yards) and Fitzgerald Toussaint (58 yards rushing, 60 yards receiving) provided a backfield presence in the wild-card game.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (12-4, 8-8 ATS, 6-9-1 O/U): Former Steeler Emmanuel Sanders hopes Sunday's tilt will feature a repeat of his strong performance in the first meeting, when he reeled in a season-high 10 catches for 181 yards and a touchdown. "You get ready for everything, but teams aren’t going to change what they do that much in the playoffs," Sanders told reporters. "You get ready to adjust, but we do what we do, they do what they do and you execute." Fellow wideout Demaryius Thomas had two of his six touchdown receptions this season against Pittsburgh.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoffs games.
* Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.
* Under is 8-2 in Steelers last 10 road games.
* Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is fairly split in this matchup, with 52 percent of wagers on the Broncos. When it comes to the total, 57 percent of wagers are on the over.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 17


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS




SEA at CAR 01:05 PM

CAR -2.5 PLAYOFF GOY


O 41.5 BEST BET




PIT at DEN 04:40 PM


PIT +7.5


U 41.0 BEST BET

 

[CNOTES]

sweet sweep.......................

 

[CNOTES]

Championship Notes
January 17, 2016


Patriots at Broncos – 3:00 PM EST – CBS


Line Movement: New England opened as a 2 ½-point road favorite at Westgate Las Vegas, but that number has quickly moved to -3 (-120). Sportsbook.ag is the only offshore book offering the Patriots at -3 ½, while the rest of the offshore books show New England at -3 with juice from -115 to -125. The total opened at 44 ½ and that hasn’t seen much movement, except at CRIS where it has dropped to 44.


New England Road Record: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS
Denver Home Record: 7-2 SU, 3-5-1 ATS


Head-to-Head: There wasn’t a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning matchup this season, but the Broncos rallied past the Patriots in overtime at home in Week 12 by a 30-24 count. Denver erased a 21-7 fourth quarter deficit to force overtime, capped off by a 48-yard touchdown run by C.J. Anderson to hand New England its first loss following a 10-0 start. The Broncos knocked off the Patriots to win the 2013 AFC Championship at home, 26-16 as five-point favorites. Brady and Manning have split four career playoff matchups with Manning’s teams winning the last two meetings in 2013 and 2006 in the conference title game.


Playoff Notes: The Patriots advanced to their fifth straight AFC Championship after holding off the Chiefs at home, 27-20 in the divisional round to cash as six-point favorites. New England has won eight of its last 11 playoff games dating back to the 2012 postseason, while covering six times in that stretch. The Patriots are the first road favorite in the AFC Championship since 2004, as New England blew out Pittsburgh as a three-point chalk, 41-27.


The Broncos didn’t play their best game in the divisional round, but found a way to stave off the Steelers, 23-16. Denver advanced to the AFC Championship for the first time since 2013, while the Broncos pushed as seven-point favorites, moving their ATS record to 0-3-1 in the divisional round with Manning at the helm. The Broncos have won four of the last six playoff games at Sports Authority Field, while being listed as an underdog in the playoffs for the first time with Manning.


Total Notes: Denver moved to 6-2-1 to the ‘under’ at home this season after the Pittsburgh victory. Since cashing the ‘over’ in the second round double-overtime loss to Baltimore in 2012, the Broncos have finished ‘under’ the total in each of the last four home playoff games. The Patriots eclipsed the ‘over’ in five of eight road contests this season, while going ‘over’ the total in six of the last eight playoff games since 2013.


Cardinals at Panthers – 6:40 PM EST - FOX


Line Movement: Carolina opened up as a three-point home favorite at most sportsbooks, while the total came out at 48 ½ at the Westgate Las Vegas. The total dropped to 47 ½ at the Westgate, while offshore book 5Dimes has listed the total at 47.


Arizona Road Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS
Carolina Home Record: 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS


Head-to-Head: These two teams didn’t face off in 2015, as the Panthers eliminated the Cardinals in the 2014 Wild Card round, 27-16 as 5 ½-point favorites. Carson Palmer didn’t face Carolina as he sat out with a torn ACL, as Arizona’s offense was limited to 78 yards behind backup Ryan Lindley. The Panthers own a 1-2 SU/ATS record against Arizona in Cam Newton’s career, as the Carolina quarterback threw for 422 yards and a touchdown in his NFL debut against the Cardinals in 2011.


Playoff Notes: The Cardinals outlasted the Packers in overtime, 26-20 to advance to their first NFC Championship since 2008. Arizona won the NFC title that season over Philadelphia, 32-25 as 3 ½-point home underdogs. The Panthers jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead over the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks in the divisional round before holding off Seattle, 31-24. Carolina evened its mark at 2-2 in the playoffs with Cam Newton at quarterback since 2013, as both victories came at Bank of America Stadium.


Total Notes: The Panthers have hit the ‘over’ in 11 of 17 games, while going 6-2-1 to the ‘over’ at home. The Cardinals cashed the ‘under’ in six of the final seven contests, but finished ‘over’ the total in five of eight games away from University of Phoenix Stadium. Last year’s Wild Card game between these teams went ‘over’ the total of 37 ½, while Carolina has hit the ‘over’ in three straight playoff games.

 

[CNOTES]

Panthers, Cards set for NFC title game
January 17, 2016


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Cam Newton. Larry Fitzgerald.


Two of the biggest stars playing for the two highest scoring teams with a Super Bowl berth on the line.


Welcome to the NFC championship game - the Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers next Sunday in Charlotte, North Carolina.


The Panthers held on to beat the Seattle Seahawks 31-24 on Sunday, knocking the two-time defending NFC champs out of the postseason with their 12th straight home win.


Now they'll host the NFC championship game for the first time in franchise history.


''To get something that you've never got, you have to do something that you've never done,'' Newton said of the team's quest to win its first Super Bowl.


The Cardinals (14-3) beat the Green Bay Packers 26-20 in overtime on Saturday night to advance.


The Panthers and Cardinals have not played this season, but this has the potential to be a high-scoring matchup. The Panthers averaged more than 31 points this season and the Cardinals were a close second at 30.5.


Fitzgerald had eight catches for 176 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Packers, but Carson Palmer struggled most of the game with inaccurate passes.


''It's easy to dwell on (bad plays),'' said Palmer, who like Newton is a former No. 1 pick and Heisman Trophy winner. ''But the experience I have, I've learned from a lot of opportunities and situations. You've got to forget about it and move on. There is no other thought.''


Newton said the key will be to not make mistakes and, if the team gets a lead, to not let off the gas.


''We were conservative, but at the end of the day, you have to trust coaching,'' Newton said. ''We had a great plan coming in. We just got to keep putting it back together.


''We're getting a lot of guys back, watch this film, get better on it and get ready for Arizona.''


Arizona won in its only other NFC championship game appearance in 2008 before losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-23 in the Super Bowl.


It is Carolina's fourth appearance in the NFC title game, but first since 2005. The Panthers are 1-2 in their previous three appearances, reaching the Super Bowl in 2003 before losing 32-29 on a late field goal to the New England Patriots.


''It's pretty special, it's hard to do,'' tight end Greg Olsen said of hosting the game. ''When you're the No. 1 seed coming off the regular season your destiny is in your own hands and we took care of business against what has been the pinnacle of the NFC the last few years, so this was a big step forward as an organization.''


This is the third time since 2008 the Panthers have hosted the Cardinals in a playoff game.


The Cardinals upset Jake Delhomme and the No. 2-seeded Panthers 33-13 in the divisional playoffs in 2008. The Panthers got some measure of revenge last year when they defeated the Cardinals 27-16 in the wild-card round last season, although Arizona was on its fourth quarterback of the season in Ryan Lindley.


''A lot of us wouldn't mind going back there to Carolina and playing those guys again since they beat us last year when we had a lot of injuries,'' Cardinals cornerback Justin Bethel said.


If the game is close, Olsen said the Panthers are well prepared.


''I guess we're used to it - I know we have some strong tickers,'' Olsen said. ''We have been through some drama and some stress, but we have a lot of character in this room and guys who understand what it means for the Panthers and play for one another. We just have to play it until the end.''

 

[CNOTES]

Manning, Brady to meet in AFC finale
January 17, 2016


DENVER (AP) The last time Tom Brady and the New England Patriots came to Denver, Peyton Manning watched the game on television from inside the locker room.


Not next Sunday, though. The Broncos quarterback will take in his customary spot in the huddle.


Manning meets Brady for a 17th time - with a trip to Super Bowl 50 at stake.


Perhaps it's only fitting these two quarterbacks meet in the AFC title game, since Manning didn't get to suit up against New England on Nov. 29 because of a foot injury. That game was a thriller, too, with Brock Osweiler leading the Broncos to a 30-24 overtime victory.


Manning's foot is healed - at least as healed as it's going to get for now - and he guided the Broncos to a 23-16 win over Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.


Brady is still vintage Brady, passing, bootlegging and QB sneaking the Super Bowl champion Patriots past the Chiefs on Saturday and into the AFC title game for a fifth straight season.


Brady's Patriots opened as a 3 1/2-point favorite over Manning's Broncos.


Manning didn't want to start reflecting on the rivalry with Brady right away. ''We'll deal with that on Wednesday,'' he said.


Manning is now 12-13 in the playoffs over his career. This one, though, possibly means a little more, given his comeback from a foot ailment that sidelined him for six weeks.


''It's been a unique season, a lot of new things have happened this season, kind of like tonight,'' said Manning, who replaced Osweiler in the season finale, leading the Broncos to a win over San Diego to secure the No. 1 seed. ''We stayed patient tonight. We never really got frustrated and that served us well tonight and it served me well this season.''


Denver surrendered 339 yards passing to Roethlisberger, who entered the game with a sore shoulder. The challenge doesn't get any easier.


Brady has long gotten the better of Manning, who is 5-11 lifetime against his counterpart, but 2-2 in the playoffs, including a win two years ago in this stadium.


''I'm honored to be a part of it and I'm looking forward to playing next week in the AFC championship,'' Manning said.


But this is hardly the same Manning anymore. He doesn't rely on his arm nearly as much as his ability to decipher schemes. He also leans heavily on the running game.


And Denver's top-ranked defense, too.


''Our defense is guiding us. Let's make that clear. They played great all season,'' Manning said. ''They were dominant today against a high-powered offense.''


Manning and Brady were paired on this stage following the 2013 season, when the Broncos held on for a 26-16 to advance to the Super Bowl.


It was a game that may be best remembered for a hit by Wes Welker on Aqib Talib, which knocked the then-Patriots cornerback out of the game and opened up things for Manning, who threw for 400 yards that afternoon.


Talib is with the Broncos now and a big reason for the success of the defense.


''We've had a lot of different players contribute to our success when we've been successful,'' Broncos coach Gary Kubiak said. ''I told them it would take them all today. It sure did. It will continue to take all of us as we move forward.''


Brady has one of his security blankets back in Julian Edelman, who returned from a broken foot on Saturday to help the Patriots beat Kansas City. Of course, Brady also has tight end Rob Gronkowski.


''They're one of the best teams in the AFC,'' Broncos linebacker Von Miller said. ''Let's go out and play and see who wants the Super Bowl.''

 

[CNOTES]

Teasers hurt Books
January 18, 2016


A few Las Vegas sports books may seriously consider not offering teasers during the NFL playoffs next season after suffering losses in the high six-figure range during the Divisional Playoff round over the weekend. It’s a decision that many have pondered over the past few seasons just because teasers have been a consistent loser, but with 15 of the 16 teaser options between the four games Saturday and Sunday cashing, it’s something that has to definitely be revisited again.


The only reason sports books haven’t crossed the playoff teasers off the wagering menu is because of competition throughout the city. No book wants to be the first to axe something from a public relations standpoint, but no book likes losing in one area, either. And when a category sticks out like a sore thumb each and every year during the playoffs, it’s time to make a change. The edge has shifted to the players massively in one area, and sports book operators are entrusted to protect the house.


In the past three seasons of the divisional round, 6-point teaser sides had gone 19-5. This past weekend, all side wagers went 8-0 in teasers and the totals posted a 7-1 mark.


The other three games were all-way teaser wins. It didn’t matter what you bet on a teaser in three of the games -- bettors cashed on basically anything they chose as you can see below.


New England 27 Kansas City 20
KC +13/OVER 41 - WIN
KC +13/UNDER 50.5 WIN
NE PK/OVER 41 - WIN
NE PK/UNDER 50.5 - WIN


Arizona 26 Green Bay 20 (OT)
GB +13/OVER 42.5 - WIN
GB +13/UNDER 55.5 - WIN
ARI -1/OVER 42.5 - WIN
ARI -1/UNDER 55.5 - WIN


Carolina 31 Seattle 24
SEA +8.5/OVER 38 - WIN
SEA +8.5/UNDER 50 - LOSS
CAR +3.5/OVER 38 - WIN
CAR +3.5/UNDER 50 - LOSS


Denver 23 Pittsburgh 15
PITT +13/OVER 35.5 - WIN
PITT +13/UNDER 47.5 - WIN
DEN -1/OVER 35.5 - WIN
DEN -1/UNDER 47.5 - WIN


The only teaser losses of the weekend was those who took Seattle/Carolina UNDER 50 in their wagers.


Where else is there in the casino that has a proposition such as the sports book with teasers where there is a possibility that the book could lose all options of a single offering? Pro and college basketball teasers are no big deal, nor is college football because the ratings aren‘t as strong, but with the NFL it’s an entirely different story.


The NFL ratings are the most sound and true of any sport, so when getting to add 6-points and lay only -120 in a two-team teaser, it’s a great deal for the bettor. During the divisional round, those spreads are even sharper and -120 is ultra-cheap based on past results.


Perhaps the best idea for the sports books, rather than cutting off teaser wagers in the playoffs, is to charge more for the two-team teaser during the playoffs. About 12 years ago we saw several sports books adjust their pay charts on two-team NFL teasers just because they were consistently getting beat on them. Sharp bettors were picking the books apart by taking EVEN money on the two-team tease. The -120 price may still be a bargain in the regular season, but action may now be needed for the playoffs. Maybe -140 is the right price, or maybe it’s -150.


The sports book I started working for in the early 90’s took NFL teaser wagers OFF the wagering menu during the playoffs. Several other books also employed the same strategy. They didn’t take them at all just because of the edge players had. A competitive imbalance forced the book to take them again and here’s where we’re at now. For bettors sake, that competition for your dollar is the only thing saving the playoff teasers in the future.


Over 70 percent of the losses this weekend were attributed to the teasers, but the one game that really saved the books from more losses was Saturday night with the Cardinals failing to cover 7-points at home in a thrilling 26-20 overtime win against the Packers.


“I’m not a big fan of the overtime rules. I prefer the way college does it, but the one overtime rule I do like is no extra-point after a touchdown. That saved us a bunch with Arizona (risk),“ said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay.


In addition to the Packers covering, the total staying UNDER 49.5 was also big for the books and the combination helped slow any big parlay momentum heading into Sunday. However, by going into overtime, it made both sides of the total teaser a winner which did carry huge momentum into Sunday.


If you took the teasers out of the equation, we’d be talking about the books having a good weekend.


Who do Books want in Super Bowl L?


Championship Sunday is set with the Patriots listed as three-point road favorites at Denver in the AFC title game and Carolina as a three-point home favorite to Arizona in the NFC finale. This is what we all wanted, right? We get the top two playoff seeds from each conference squaring off from each conference with low spreads.


So who do the sports books want to win that will generate the most action in Super Bowl 50?


“Action-wise, the event really sells itself and I don’t think it really matters who is in the game between the four teams,” said Kornegay. “I think the Broncos would be a more popular choice because a lot of people are tired of seeing the Patriots in there and most people would be happy with either Arizona or Carolina just because each is such a high-scoring team. But I think from our end and what we handle on the Super Bowl always coincides with how the economy is doing, and the past three years have all been very good.”


The past three Super Bowls have all seen higher handle than the previous record set in 2006 when Nevada handled $94.5 million for the Steelers 21-10 victory over the Seahawks. The next six Super Bowls during an economic crisis in Las Vegas all saw lower handle, but then in 2013 the Ravens and 49ers generated $98.9 million and in 2014 the all-time record was set at $119.4 million with the Seahawks blowing out Denver 43-8. Last year the Patriots 28-24 win over the Seahawks generated $115.9 million in action.


Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook App debuts


Jay Kornegay says the Westgate SuperBook mobile phone app will debut to the public on Tuesday. Because of such a massive daily menu the Westgate offers, just about anyone in Nevada who is a regular bettor should have an account. No more excuses about not being able to drive to Paradise and Sahara anymore. Between William Hill, CG Technology, the South Point, Station Casinos, Boyd Gaming, Aliante and now the Westgate, you should be able to get the best line possible for any game. And for this week's games and then the Super Bowl, all that type of action by bettors from their house parties could help set another Super Bowl record in Nevada.

 

[CNOTES]

Championship Angles
January 18, 2016




NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships at Stake!


This is it, the final weekend of games before the Super Bowl. The last month we've been hearing about playoff seedings, bye weeks and home field advantage. Are all those things really important? Historically it has been during the second round of the playoffs. Teams with the bye have home field advantage and two weeks to prepare, both of which are usually important edges this time of year.


However, during the conference championship games that kick off this weekend, history shows us that the two remaining teams in each conference are often on fairly equal footing, both straight up and against the spread. You might think the team with the home field has a big edge, but that's not usually the case this deep into the season.


A year ago the favorites split, with New England crushing the Colts, 45-7, but Seattle failed to cover as -8.5 chalk against Green Bay, 28-22. The Packers were never in doubt of covering, either, leading 19-3 late before a shocking Seahawks comeback win in overtime.


Three years ago the underdogs went 1-0-1 ATS in the title games, with the 49ers winning 28-24 at Atlanta as 4-point chalk and the Ravens beating the Patriots on the road, 28-13.


Four years ago both underdogs covered in squeakers, with the underdog Giants beating the 49ers in OT (20-17) and the 7-point underdog Ravens nearly winning at New England, blowing a late field goal in a 23-20 defeat.


The last seven years, 10 of 14 home teams won but went only 7-6-1 ATS.


Notice that since 1992, the home team has won just 26 of 46 NFL title games straight up and the visiting team is 24-21-1 against the spread. Going 27-18-1 straight up is an edge for the home teams, though far from dominant than many might expect to find in the second-biggest game of the season.


Within those statistics remember that there have been plenty of road underdogs that not only got the money, but won the game and advanced to the Super Bowl, including the Ravens and Giants the recently, both going on to win the Super Bowl.


The Packers last January were one botched onside-kick away from advancing as a road dog.


In 2008 both road teams covered. The Patriots topped San Diego, 21-12, but failed to cover, while the +7 underdog road Giants won at Green Bay, 23-20.


In 2007 Pittsburgh was a road dog at Denver, but clobbered the Broncos 34-17.


Coming into this weekend, the dogs are 18-11-1 against the spread the last 15 years in the NFL title games.


The NFC has seen the dog go 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 years, including five of the last six seasons with the Giants, the Packers twice and the Cardinals were home 'dogs to the Eagles. Philadelphia's trouncing of the Falcons in 2005, 27-10, ended a six-year run by underdogs covering in the NFC championship tilt.


Certainly you can't discount home field advantage. However, there is generally greater balance between teams simply because at this point in the season, the remaining four teams are very strong and often evenly matched. In mid-January, you rarely find a team that has glaring weaknesses, for example, ranking at the bottom of the NFL in some offensive or defensive category.


It's difficult for teams with major weaknesses to make the playoffs in the first place, and if they do make it, opposing coaches will attack those weak spots to their own advantage. The cream rises, which is what competition is all about. You also know that teams will be playing at a high level of intensity, as there is so much at stake -- the winners go to the Super Bowl, the losers go home and sulk about what might have been. After such a long season, teams that have come this close to the Holy Grail are going to give everything they have for four full quarters.


Slicing the history another way, we find that the favorites are 29-14-1 SU in NFL championship games but 22-21-1 ATS the last 22 years. The total is 24-19-1 "over" during that time. Oddly, there have been more blowouts by the underdog than the favorite.


The NY Giants rolled 41-0 in 2001 over Minnesota as two-point home underdogs. In January of 2000, Tennessee ripped the Jaguars 33-14 as a 7-point road 'dog, and three years ago the underdog Ravens won by 15.


Several big favorites have struggled, as well.


Still, before you jump on the live dogs, remember that the favorites had a nice run of their own from 1993-97 going 8-2 against the spread in the NFL title games. This is why looking at trends and angles must be approached with great caution.


The Current Trend: The favorites are on a very mild 9-6-1- ATS run in Conference Championship games.

 

[CNOTES]

Panthers DE Allen doubtful for Sunday
January 18, 2016


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Carolina Panthers coach Ron Rivera says defensive end Jared Allen has a broken bone in his foot and is doubtful for Sunday's NFC championship game against the Arizona Cardinals.


Rivera didn't specify which of Allen's feet was injured.


Allen sustained the injury in the fourth quarter of Carolina's 31-24 win over Seattle on Sunday, but finished the game.


The 33-year-old Allen has 136 career sacks - tied for most among active players - but a career-low two sacks since being acquired in an early-season trade with Chicago.


Rivera says the team hasn't decided whether to put Allen on injured reserve. If they do, he says the Panthers could promote former starter Wes Horton from the practice squad.


However, if Allen doesn't play Kony Ealy would get the start against the Cardinals (14-3).

 

[CNOTES]

Brady on AFC: Beyond 'wildest dreams
January 18, 2016


As a 24-year-old in 2001, his second NFL season, Tom Brady stepped in when Drew Bledsoe was injured and led the New England Patriots into the playoffs.


When he arrived in Pittsburgh to play the Steelers in the AFC championship game, Brady couldn't believe he was there.


''Fifteen years later, to be a part of 10 of those, I never imagined that any of this was even possible,'' Brady said on Monday. ''You never take it for granted.''


A sixth-round draft pick who spent his rookie year as the No. 4 quarterback on the Patriots' depth chart, Brady has grown into a four-time NFL champion and a three-time Super Bowl MVP.


On Sunday, he will play in the AFC championship game for the fifth time in a row and the 10th time in his career, extending what was already an NFL record.


''It's beyond what I'd ever imagined in my wildest dreams,'' Brady said on his weekly radio appearance on WEEI.


Hall of Famer Joe Montana, whom Brady grew up in the Bay Area idolizing, played in seven conference title games, six with the San Francisco 49ers and another with the Kansas City Chiefs. He was 4-3; Brady is 6-3 heading into Sunday's game in Denver against the Broncos and longtime nemesis Peyton Manning.


Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said what's most remarkable about Brady is his consistency. After playing in six Super Bowls in his career - and another 24 playoff games leading up to them - Brady isn't likely to be overwhelmed by the moment.


''It's a big football game, and he's played in a lot of them,'' McDaniels said. ''Doing the things that you've done to get yourself in this position are really important. ... His preparation, his rest and treatment and getting his body ready and his mind right. He does a lot of the things every day to prepare for the next day.


''Even though these games have finality to them that some games in the regular season or preseason don't have, he approaches it the same way.''


Brady is 22-8 in the playoffs, winner of his first 10 postseason games and his past four. His first career playoff loss and his most recent one were both in Denver, where he is 2-6 in his career.


The Broncos beat New England 30-24 in overtime on Nov. 29 - a victory that earned Denver home-field advantage for Sunday's game. Manning was out for that one, replaced by Brock Osweiler, but he'll be back on Sunday to face Brady in what could be his last game against Brady.


Although the two maintain a golf-and-dinner friendship in the offseason, Brady said he wasn't sure if he would be in touch with Manning this week with such an important game looming.


''It will be fun to play another Peyton Manning-led team,'' said Brady, who had a long run of success against Manning when he was with the Indianapolis Colts.


''It's pretty hard to get to this point. There's only four teams standing,'' Brady said. ''Two of these teams have to go home. Hope we're not one of them.''

 

[CNOTES]

Six ways NFL Championship Sunday is better than Super Bowl Sunday


Simple math tells us that two is better than one. That's just one reason why NFL Championship Sunday is superior to Super Bowl Sunday for football bettors.


The world comes to a screeching halt for one Sunday in February: Super Bowl Sunday. But, while the Big Game may come with all the glitz and glam, football bettors can find all that and more - and a little less - in the NFL Conference Championship Games.


Everyone knows about March Madness. But not everyone pays attention to the conference tournaments the week before the Big Dance.


The same goes for the Super Bowl. Everyone and their dog watches the Big Game – even if you’re not a follower of football – but not everyone takes in the conference championship games that precede the Super Bowl.


For sports bettors, going against the public grain is often times the path to profits. And, much like finding more betting enjoyment wagering on college basketball’s conference tournaments than the NCAA tournament, NFL bettors may gravitate toward the conference championships rather than living and dying for the Super Bowl.


Sure, Super Bowl has all the pageantry and hoopla surrounding it but when it comes to turning a profit and having a little fun while doing it, NFL Conference Championship Sunday takes the cake.


Here are six reasons why NFL Championship Sunday is better than Super Bowl Sunday:


TWO GAMES, MAN


The basic math says NFL Championship Sunday is twice as good as Sunday Bowl Sunday. The fact that there are two games means more options for sports bettors, but it also serves as a safety net – or merciless pit of quicksand with rusty razorblades at the bottom – for football bettors.


With kickoffs at 3:05 p.m. ET and 6:40 p.m. ET Sunday, Championship Sunday offers those bettors coming off losing wagers in the first game a chance to redeem themselves – the infamous “Get Even, or Get Even Deeper” late game.


While plenty of money will be played on the early game – New England at Denver – a lot of that action will funnel into the late game – Arizona at Carolina - with winners looking to double up and losers trying to save their shirts.


Some people like the Divisional Round or Wild Card Weekend, due to the fact there are four games on the slate. But I find NFL Championship Sunday has the perfect balance between big-game buzz and betting options.


SMALLER CROWDS


Try finding a nice seat to watch the Super Bowl on Feb. 7. If you’re in Las Vegas, you better have called ahead – and by ahead we mean like six months ago.


Sportsbooks and sports bar are packed to the gills on Super Sunday, which means simple tasks like taking a pee or getting a refill on your beer will take at least 10 minutes. And those luxuries may not come with a clear view of a TV.


A few years ago, my kid and I took in a matinee NBA game on NFL Championship Sunday and then casually walked into a sports bar following the basketball game and got a premium seat in a booth, right in front of the TV midway through the second quarter of the early kickoff (Yeah, I take my kids to bars. WHAT?!).


Try something like that on Super Bowl Sunday and you’ll find reserved seats on the frozen sidewalk, scanning through the window at a sea of warm drunken heads just to get a glimpse of the 9 a.m. pregame show.


The smaller crowds also translate to the sportsbook on NFL Championship Sunday. This weekend will be a busy day for bookmakers in Nevada, but you won’t need to camp out for a spot in line like you’re trying to get Rolling Stones farewell tour tickets.


Waiting until minutes before kickoff to place your bet is always a little risky, even on a regular NFL Sunday, but you can wait out line moves and grab the spread you want late on Championship Sunday – something that Super Sunday just doesn’t allow.


Depending on where you wager in the Silver State, be prepared to stand in line like the DMV to get down on the Big Game – well ahead of kickoff.


NO BYE WEEK


The bye week before Super Bowl is the Christmas Eve of sports betting: a painfully long period to wait before the grand finale, that always seems longer than time and space will allow.


And for what? The extra week between conference title games and Super Bowl Sunday is more time to second guess your handicapping, twist your brain around the media machine’s bullshit, and cloud your judgement on what is – when stripped down – just another football game.


You don’t have to deal with that crap during NFL Championship Sunday. The odds hit the board immediately following the Divisional Round matchups and whether you jumped on the early numbers or you’re waiting it out, those lines have one week – and one week only – to move around before game time.


Plus, nothing is worse than having that free Sunday before the Super Bowl. The downstairs toilet that you’ve abused and neglected all football season, yeah, your wife wants you to give it a good clean because she knows you’ve got nothing better to do.


“Make it a real ‘super bowl’”, she says with a smile.


Could be worse. You could watch the Pro Bowl…


BETTER LINE VALUE


NFL odds this time of the year are tighter than that Roger Goodell’s butthole every time a player is carted off with a concussion. However, finding an edge in the conference title odds is easier than finding the same value with the Super Bowl numbers.


Books don’t need to drastically move the odds for the Super Bowl so quickly because they have two weeks to try and even out the action and they know the majority of money is going to come on Saturday and Sunday. So, if you’re waiting for the Big Game spread or total to budge a week and a half before game day, you may want to bring a book or better yet write one – you’ll have some open space on your daily planner.


The lines for the conference championships are a little more liberal. Books and bettors have a pretty good idea of what these teams are made of at this point in the postseason, but you will see more movement, more often simply because of the limited window of time. You’ll get those half-point hiccups that make the difference between winning and losing bets at this time of the season.


NO HALFTIME SHOW


If you’re like me, halftime is a chance to get some shit done before the game picks up again.


Gotta poo? Dump out during halftime.


Want some nachos? Bake them bad boys during the break.


Got some household chores to tend to? Take out the trash or toss a load of laundry in while the teams take a breather.


The lack of a must-see halftime spectacular during the conference championships allows football bettors to multitask. Lay some second-half lines while also giving yourself a little break from the action. Clear your head. Acknowledge the existence of your kids for the first time today.


Super Bowl Sunday, on the other hand, is a relentless heavyweight of entertainment that keeps you glued to your seat with haymaker after haymaker, even when the teams aren’t even on the field. Besides the onslaught of great commercials and blockbuster movie trailers, the halftime show itself is something you just can’t risk missing. Especially this year.


What if I get up to put out a grease fire in my kitchen and Beyonce’s boob pops out? And don’t say it doesn’t happen, because we all know it does…


MODERATE MEDIA BLITZ/NO NON-FOOTBALL FANS


Working in sports media can leave you with a Super Bowl hangover well before game day. I recall my days as a content editor on shift work, watching the news wires in the two weeks before a Super Bowl many moons ago.


The stories were interesting in the first week before the game, but quickly deteriorated in quality and topic as the game drew closer. By the time Friday rolled around, reporters were filing in-depth profiles on the kickers and long snappers. At that point, I just wanted the Super Bowl to be over with so I could once again sleep at night.


Even if you’re not in sports media, the two-week ramp up to the big game - that builds ever so slowly like a Rush song - is a lot to ******. The ESPNs and Fox Sports of the industry are constantly cranking out content like some infinite Play-Doh Mop Top Hair Shop, and then you have the non-sports hacks taking their best swing at an entertaining twist on the Big Game: "Twenty dollars for a hot dog?! That’s a great deal! Ha Ha Ha!” BARF!


And while we’re on the subject of Super Bowl newbies, how about those people your girlfriend invited over from her work to your Super Bowl party. The ones who’ve never sat through an entire football game in their lives and thought they should announce that upon arrival, like they're doing something sooooo daring for the first time.


I haven’t had my first prostate exam yet but I’m sure as hell not going to blab all over the waiting room about it when the time comes to bend over and take a deep breath.


Oh, and there’s always this guy, usually some random girl’s boyfriend who decided it would be ironically insulting to sports fans everywhere to wear a shirt and skinny tie to your “Super Bowl Soiree”. This guy doesn’t exist during Championship Sunday. He’s off rock climbing or buying old vinyl records at a flea market. I hate this guy…


Don't get me wrong. As a football fan, I love Super Bowl Sunday (more so when my Dallas Cowboys get to play in it). It's just behind Christmas and Halloween in the holiday pecking order at my house (Sorry, Easter). But, as a sports bettor, NFL Championship Sunday seems made for me.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

New England @ Denver

Game 311-312
January 24, 2016 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
140.851
Denver
135.084
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-3); Over

Arizona @ Carolina

Game 313-314
January 24, 2016 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
139.505
Carolina
144.981
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); Over




NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, January 24

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) at DENVER (12 - 4) - 1/24/2016, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 173-132 ATS (+27.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 108-79 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 76-51 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-2 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (14 - 3) at CAROLINA (15 - 1) - 1/24/2016, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
CAROLINA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAROLINA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

New England at Denver, 3:00 ET
New England: 11-2 ATS revenging an upset loss against opponent as a road favorite
Denver: 24-8 OVER after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game

Arizona at Carolina, 6:40 ET
Arizona: 3-7 ATS after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games
Carolina: 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3




NFL

Conference Championships

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 24

3:05 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
New England is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
New England is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England

6:40 PM
ARIZONA vs. CAROLINA
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games on the road
Carolina is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's top seeds battle in rare - and profitable - spot on Championship Sunday


In 19 of the 29 instances in which a No. 1 seed played a No. 2 in the conference championship, the No. 1 seed progresses to the Super Bowl. But what about the betting outcome?


Since 1985, there have been 29 (out of a possible 60) instances when the No. 1 seed met the No. 2 seed in the NFL Conference Championship, so it’s far from a rare event.


However, the last time both conferences featured the top two seeds in the AFC and NFC, which is what football bettors have this Championship Sunday, was way back in 2004. It seems that the NFL has featured more parity over the past few years and therefore, reduced the likeliness of this happening.


So what happens when the No. 1 seed plays the No. 2 seed? Well, in short, the No. 1 seed wins more often than not.


In 19 of the 29 instances, the No. 1 seed progresses to the Super Bowl. This is, of course, not unexpected. Not only does the No. 1 seed get home-field advantage for the game, but they are presumably also the better team during the regular season.


This seems to suggest that Carolina and Denver will be the teams to progress, right? Not so fast.


Denver finds itself in the somewhat weird position of being an underdog at home against New England, with only five previous No. 1 seeds being tagged as the pup. And the line does a better job of predicting the outcome than seeding.


Although during the regular season, the lines only predict the correct outcome around 65 percent of the time, during the conference finals when the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds play, they correctly predict it 76 percent of the time (22 of 29). So it’s actually more likely for New England to progress this weekend (as a 3-point favorite).


So, more importantly, who wins the betting matchups when the No. 1 seed plays the No. 2 seed? Unfortunately, it seems like there is no advantage to be gleaned from the lines – the No. 1 has covered the spread 14 of 29 times - nearly exactly 50 percent.


However, one interesting trend has been that the team expected to win has also covered the spread more often than not. Teams projected to win by the oddsmakers have covered the spread 17 times and lost 12 only times.


This isn’t that large of a discrepancy, but it’s more pronounced when you look at cases where the home team (and No. 1 seed) is the betting underdog (as Denver is).


In these cases, of which there have only been five among the entire No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups, the home underdog has covered only once, the other four times the away favorite has covered the spread. Not a large sample size to be sure, but one that suggests taking New England nonetheless.


We can also look at totals, and see how often a game goes Over the number. In all No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups, it has gone Over 18 times and Under 10 times (with a push one time) – going Over the total 64 percent of the time. That’s not large enough to be statistically significant (given the small sample size) but definitely large enough to be practically significant.


One thing to notice, however, is that when the home No. 1 seed is a betting underdog to the away No. 2 seed, the games actually lean to the Under more often (2-3 Over/Under).


That means that when the No. 1 seed is favored, as Carolina is, the game goes Over nearly 70 percent of the time. So rather than betting both Overs Sunday, the NFC Championship may hold some extra historic No. 1-versus-No. 2 value in terms of a high-scoring finish.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Conference Championships


Could the poor field conditions at Bank of American Stadium slow down the Cardinals speedy defense against the Panthers Sunday?


New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3, 44.5)


Patriots’ red-zone defense vs. Broncos’ red-zone troubles


Offense has been an issue for the Broncos ever since Father Time sacked Peyton Manning sometime around Week 9 of the 2014 season, which so happened to be a 43-21 loss to the Patriots in Foxborough in mid-November. That poor finish to the 2014 campaign snowballed into 2015, with Denver’s offense scoring just over 22 points per game this year.


Finding the end zone has been challenging, especially when the Broncos venture inside their opponents’ 20-yard lines. Denver has scored touchdowns on just under 48 percent of its red-zone trips – which sits sixth lowest in the entire league – and in the past three games, the Broncos have found pay dirt in just 43 percent of those attempts. With Manning back under center, scoring has seen an uptick since his triumphant return in Week 17, but Denver has settled for seven field goals and scored only three touchdowns.


New England has been a “bend but don’t break” defense for a while now. The Patriots did give up big plays throughout the year but turned up the intensity when foes were able to crack the red zone. On the season, the Pats limited opponents to just under three red-zone visits per game and allowed a touchdown in half of those attempts.


Against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, the New England defense forced Kansas City to settle for two first-half field goals and while it did give up two touchdowns, one was a garbage time score with 1:13 left in the one-sided win. Heading into that game, the Chiefs were dominating in the red zone, scoring touchdowns at a 66 percent clip inside the twenty during their 11-game winning streak.


Daily fantasy watch: New England D/ST


Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3, 47.5)


Cardinals’ speedy defense vs. Panthers’ slow field


One complaint coming out of last weekend’s battle between the Seahawks and Panthers was the field conditions at Bank of America Stadium. Early in the game, Seattle’s defense was having troubles with traction, forcing them to switch to longer studs in their cleats. However, the sloppy surface continued to plague the visitor – or at least scorned Seahawks players made it seem so in their postgame comments.


Bank of America Stadium saw a lot of traffic as well as a lot of rain heading into that Divisional Round contest, including two Panthers games and the Belk Bowl on Dec. 30. The grounds crew had re-sodded the surface but that was softened by rain and snow on game day. The forecast in Charlotte this week is calling for ice and rain Friday and snow again Saturday before giving way to sunny skies Sunday.


To the Panthers’ defense, as coach Ron Rivera told reporters, “Both teams played on it”. But slick field conditions can impact some teams more than others. Arizona, much like Seattle, has a very aggressive defense that relies on speed to overwhelm opposing offenses. The Cardinals are used to playing on grass inside University of Phoenix Stadium, but that’s grown outside and brought in for optimal playing conditions. A slick track, whether it be snow or mud, seems to benefit the ball carrier more than the defense simply because the runner knows which way they're going and the would-be tackler does not.


On offense, pushing through the pile or making a quick cut could be like running on banana peels Sunday. Arizona running back David Johnson told reporters he may have to change his running style, “running downfield a little bit more, not trying to juke as much.” The Cardinals and Panthers met on a similar battle field in the Wild Card Round last year, with Carolina winning 27-16 against an injury-depleted Arizona offense. The Cards managed only 27 yards on 15 rushing attempts and sacked Cam Newton only once in that postseason clash.


Daily fantasy watch: Carolina D/ST