Cnotes preseason thread with stats-trends- qb rotation- picks etc. !!

[CNOTES]

NFLX

Saturday, August 16

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Saturday's NFL Week 2 preseason betting primer
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Saturday marks the busiest day of the NFL's second week of exhibition action, with half the league taking the field. Here's a look at betting notes for the eight games scheduled for Saturday:

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams (-2.5, 43)

* The battle for the fifth and final wide receiver job in Green Bay could very well come down to whichever of the contenders performs better Saturday afternoon; Myles Whyte, Chris Harper, Jeff Janis, Kevin Dorsey and Alex Gillett are all in the hunt. The Packers are expected to have running back Eddie Lacy make his preseason debut; he appeared in his first exhibition game against the Rams a year ago and ran for 40 yards on just eight carries.

* Quarterback Sam Bradford will see his first game action in nearly 10 months Saturday, with head coach Jeff Fisher predicting that Bradford would see at least a quarter of action - and possibly more. The Rams are expected to give running back Zac Stacy more work than the four carries he saw last week - though St. Louis didn't really need him, erupting for 150 yards on 32 carries in a 26-24 loss to the New Orleans Saints.


New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 41.5)

* Geno Smith and New York's first-team offense will play the entire first half against the Bengals, according to head coach Rex Ryan; Michael Vick will also see time under center, as will sixth-round pick Tajh Boyd, who will play ahead of Matt Simms. The Jets have won four of their last preseason games overall after dropping their previous five - including all four they played in 2012.

* Head coach Marvin Lewis told reporters that quarterback Andy Dalton will likely see between 15-25 snaps against the Jets; Dalton saw 22 and 23 snaps, respectively, in the second preseason game the last two seasons. Cincinnati will likely take it easy with its starters Saturday, as it begins a stretch of three games in 12 days that wraps up Aug. 28 against the visiting Indianapolis Colts.


Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 42.5)

* Veteran tight end Owen Daniels hasn't practiced since Monday as he deals with nagging leg soreness, and his status for Saturday night's game remains up in the air. A sprained ankle suffered by Asa Jackson - who had an interception in Baltimore's exhibition opener - has left the nickel back position wide open entering Saturday, with Chykie Brown and Dominique Franks expected to vie for playing time in Jackson's absence.

* Quarterback Tony Romo will see his first game action since undergoing back surgery in late-December; he's expected to be eased back in after participating in only 11 of the team's 16 scheduled practices - and avoiding practices on back-to-back days. Romo is expected to have his usual cast of characters against the Ravens, including running back DeMarco Murray, wide receiver Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten.


New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 41.5)

* The Giants' secondary will face a major test against Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, but come in with positive momentum as the starters have yet to allow a passing touchdown through their first two preseason games. Quarterback Eli Manning has yet to really air it out - his longest throw of the preseason has been for just 10 yards - but head coach Tom Coughlin says looking for a deep strike isn't something he'll force against the Colts.

* The Colts' backfield will be a little more robust in the team's second exhibition game, with safety LaRon Landry and cornerback Vontae Davis expected to play versus the Giants after being limited by groin injuries. Luck and the first-team offense is expected to see up to 25 plays against New York, with receiver T.Y. HIlton expected to suit up despite missing a pair of practices this week.


Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 40.5)

* After receiving rave reviews from coaches and teammates - highlighted by receiver Mike Williams' assertion that Thursday's practice was "the best I've ever seen him," quarterback E.J. Manuel is expected to see plenty of time Saturday against the Steelers. He'll look to improve a scuffling Buffalo first-team offense that has managed just two field goals in five possessions through two exhibition games.

* The Steelers are expected to give all three of its prominent running backs playing time, though it's anybody's guess as to how Le'Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount and rookie Dri Archer will be used against the Bills. Pittsburgh has been one of the worst teams in the preseason over the past season-plus, losing five straight exhibition games after going 19-6 over their previous 25 preseason contests.


Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 37.5)

* It isn't clear whether running back Knowshon Moreno (knee) will make his Dolphins debut against the Buccaneers, but he hasn't been full speed yet in practice and is expected to sit out at least another week. His absence will likely mean a decent workload for expected Week 1 starter Lamar Miller, who has reportedly looked sensational in camp.

* The focus on the Tampa Bay side of the ball will be on the progress of rookie wide receiver Mike Evans, who has looked inconsistent so far in training camp and will need to earn the No. 2 receiver job opposite Vincent Jackson. Last week's shoddy performance against the Jaguars has prompted coach Lovie Smith to shake up the offensive line, highlighted by the demotion of Jamon Meredith from the starting right guard spot.


Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-3, 40.5)

* Star wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones were given Thursday off to rest ahead of Saturday's tilt with the Texans; while White is expected to see the field, head coach Mike Smith hasn't said whether Jones - recovering from a major foot injury - would join him. The first team offense, led by quarterback Matt Ryan, is expected to play the entire first half in Houston.

* No. 1 quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't in danger of losing his Week 1 starting job. but could use a better performance Saturday than the one he posted in Houston's exhibition opener against the Arizona Cardinals (6-for-14, 55 yards, two interceptions.) Eyes will also be on No. 1 pick Jadeveon Clowney, who looked solid in his debut but will need to work on his drop-back coverage versus the Texans.


Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 39.5)

* Starting Cardinals tight end John Carlson is expected to see action against the team that released him back in March, but he likely won't play for long as Arizona looks to keep him fresh - and concussion-free - for the start of the regular season. Backup quarterback candidate Ryan Lindley may be playing for his spot on the roster; he's expected to see the majority of the second half.

* Fans hoping to see running back Adrian Peterson will be disappointed yet again, as the Vikings are expected to rest him until the start of the regular season - just as they have every year since 2011. The quarterback battle between Matt Cassel and Teddy Bridgewater will once again take center stage Saturday, with Cassel playing the opening half and Bridgewater expected to play the majority of the final two quarters.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Preseason Tips

August 17, 2014

Week 2 Recap: The home teams put up a 5-0 straight-up and 3-2 against the spread record on Thursday and Friday. The road clubs bounced back nicely on Saturday night by compiling a 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS record, as the Vikings and Steelers each won by a combined five points at home with late scores. The ‘over’ went 4-4 last night after the ‘over’ finished a perfect 4-0 on Friday night.

Broncos at 49ers (-4 ½, 41 ½) – 4:00 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records: DEN (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), SF (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Previous preseason meeting: Broncos beat 49ers, 10-6 as three-point road underdogs in 2013.

Preseason review: Denver picked up a tiny bit of revenge from this past February’s Super Bowl beatdown by Seattle, as the Broncos rallied past the Seahawks, 21-16 as one-point home ‘dogs. The 49ers traveled east and didn’t put up much of a fight in a 23-3 defeat to the Ravens. San Francisco was outgained by nearly 200 yards, while Baltimore held the ball for almost 40 minutes.

Expert Analysis: Doc’s Sports - Denver has been getting blown out in Week 2 of the exhibition season and we fully expect that trend to continue on Sunday. The Broncos lost last year by 30 points and by 20 points in 2012 (both losses to Seattle). San Francisco is opening up a new stadium and that will give them the little extra effort needed to win this game by 7 to 10 points. This will be another regular season rematch and thus I do not expect the Broncos to move it up-tempo and John Fox is just 4-8 in Week 2 in the preseason.

Chiefs at Panthers (-3 ½, 40) – 8:00 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records: KC (1-0 SU, 0-0-1 ATS), CAR (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Previous preseason meeting: Chiefs beat Panthers, 30-10 as 3 ½-point home favorites in 1997.

Preseason review: Kansas City outlasted Cincinnati, 41-39, but pushed as two-point favorites. The Chiefs benefited from a pair of interception returns for touchdowns to win their third straight exhibition contest dating back to last August. Cam Newton sat out Carolina’s preseason opening loss to Buffalo, 20-18 as short home underdogs. The Panthers scored on a pair of long touchdown passes, but a late two-point conversion failed to tie the game.

Expert Analysis: Tony Stoffo - With Newton nursing offseason ankle surgery and an unsettled offensive line, the Panthers could only manage six points and 70+ yards in the first half against the Bills in Week 1. While even though the Chiefs put up 41 points on the Bengals in the first half, they could only manage three offensive field goal drives as the rest of their points were on 80-yard punt return and a 36-yard Sean Smith pick-six for a score. So I feel we have a ton of value in this total as the public and the odds makers have over-reacted to what the Chiefs did and posted an extremely high total here.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, AUGUST 17

Game 427-428: Denver at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.393; San Francisco 125.031
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

Game 429-430: Kansas City at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.384; Carolina 122.008
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NFC West NFL betting preview: Niners primed for a fall in tough division

When the Seahawks defeated the 49ers in last year's NFC Championship Game, Richard Sherman called it "the real Super Bowl". Seattle and San Francisco remain favorites to win the NFL West, but don't forget about Arizona. The Cardinals won 10 games in 2013 behind a strong defense loaded with youth and talent.

Seattle Seahawks (2013: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Odds to win division: -105
Season win total: 10.5

Why to bet the Seahawks: Quarterback Russell Wilson will be in just his third season as a starter. He's shown plenty of poise in his first two years and there’s every reason to assume he'll only get better. If Percy Harvin can stay healthy or rookie Paul Richardson makes an impact, we could see the Seahawks offense make strides in 2014. No team enjoys as much of a home-field advantage as the Seahawks with their 12th man at CenturyLink Field, where they are 15-1 the last two seasons.

Why not to bet the Seahawks: There really aren't many reasons to doubt the Seahawks, but they will come into the 2014 season with a target on their back. Everyone wants to beat the champions and the last two Super Bowl winners have gone on to miss the playoffs in the following season (New York and Baltimore).

Season win total pick: Over 10.5


San Francisco 49ers (2013: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Odds to win division: +130
Season win total: 10.5

Why to bet the 49ers: San Francisco was so close to winning the Super Bowl two seasons ago and came up just short in the NFC Championship Game, losing to the eventual Super Bowl winners in Seattle last season. The Niners have a talented young quarterback who many consider to have the biggest arm in the NFL. With Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin, Colin Kaepernick has no shortage of dangerous targets.

Why not to bet the 49ers: Injuries have taken their toll on San Francisco, which lost Kendall Hunter to a torn ACL, and LaMichael James to a dislocated elbow in training camp. That leaves the backfield in a fragile state, with an aging Frank Gore backed up by an injury-prone Marcus Lattimore and unproven rookie in Carlos Hyde. They also lost Glen Dorsey (out for the season) and Navarro Bowman, who is expected to miss at least the first half of 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 10.5


Arizona Cardinals (2013: 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Odds to win division: +800
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Cardinals: On the defensive side of the ball, the secondary will continue to be very good provided Tyronn Mathieu is healthy and top draft choice Deone Bucannon lives up to advanced billing. The Cardinals finished with the No. 1 run defense in 2013 and they’re the only team to have beaten the Seahawks in Seattle in the past two seasons.

Why not to bet the Cardinals: There’s concern in the linebacking corps as Karlos Dansby bolted to Cleveland and Daryl Washington has been suspended for the season. Along with safety Yeremiah Bell, who wasn't resigned, the team's top three tacklers from last season (270 in total) are all gone. It could be a rough year for Carson Palmer, as Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis all have ferocious pass rushes that will make life miserable for the immobile veteran quarterback.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5


St. Louis Rams (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +1,000
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Rams: Sam Bradford only played seven games last year, yet the Rams still managed to win seven games while playing in the toughest division in the league. His numbers look pretty impressive, with 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions. This could be the year that the Rams quarterback finally reaches his potential.

Why not to bet the Rams: While they look solid on defense and the running game should be strong with Zac Stacy coming off an impressive rookie campaign, there are still plenty of questions regarding this offense. The Rams averaged fewer than 200 yards passing per game and they don't exactly have a star-studded corps of receivers.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

-- Texans 32, Falcons 7-- Houston lost 32-0 last week; you figure coaches put the hammer down and demanded more this game. Hard Knocks will be interesting to watch this week; rough night for the Falcons.

-- Giants 27, Colts 26-- Indy led 26-0 in 4th quarter. People bet on these games, but I'm not sure why.

-- Braves 4, A's 3-- Oakland lost six of its last seven games :-(

-- Vikings 30, Cardinals 28-- Teddy Bridgewater was 16-20/177 passing ball, led winning TD drive in last minute. Arizona led 21-13 after third quarter.

-- Brewers 3, Dodgers 2-- LA's 13-game win streak in Kershaw starts ends.

-- 9 of 16 guys left on Team USA haven't played in one NBA All-Star Game.

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind.........

13) Getting rid of the DH would help shorten baseball games; which do you think take longer, pitchers' AB's or David Ortiz AB's? Plus, with no DH you get fewer pitching changes within a half-inning, each of which is 4-5 minutes.

12) Greedy bastard update: For a mere $749, you can have two stadium seats from old Candlestick Park, which is being wrecked this year, with 49ers moving to a new stadium. Wonder how many suckers will buy those?

11) Staying in San Francisco for a minute, the baseball Giants are just 9-23 in their last 32 home games. No bueno.

10) New Jersey Giants have a new OC, 37-year old Ben McAdoo; Tom Coughlin's coaching career was already underway for eight years when McAdoo was born.

9) Giants' backup QB Curtis Painter has played in 14 games over his three seasons in the NFL; he started eight games for the Colts in 2011, when Peyton Manning was hurt. Colts were 0-8 in those games; Painter threw six TDs, nine INTs. You would think the Giants could find a better backup QB.

8) One last Giant note: NFL Fact Book lists seven senior VPs, seven regular VPs in the Giants' front office. Steelers list 17 people, in their entire front office.

7) Some NFL regular season games with coaching subplots:
-- Oct 26-- Vikings-Bucs-- Minnesota fired Bucs' DC Leslie Frazier as HC.
-- Nov 23-- Bucs-Bears-- Chicago fired Lovie Smith two years ago.
-- Dec 7-- Colts-Browns-- Cleveland fired Rob Chudzinski, after one year.

6) Bronx Bombers lost five of their last six games, scoring 10 runs; most teams juggle their lineup when they struggle, but Joe Girardi hasn't. Derek Jeter has batted 437 times this season; he's batted in the 2nd slot 427 of those 437 times. Girardi is a smart guy, but appears his hands are tied by having an aging legend on his team.

5) There are 63 offensive/defensive coordinators in the NFL (Houston doesn't list an OC, with Bill O'Brien as HC). 15 of the 63 are former NFL head coaches.

4) Aaron Rodgers looked very sharp in his preseason debut, but its hard to tell; did the Rams game plan on defense? I hope not; they didn't offer much resistence.

3) You look at Bucs' coach Lovie Smith's resume, you see he was at Arizona State from 1988-91, when Larry Marmie was the head coach. You look at Tampa Bay's coaching staff now, you see Larry Marmie as an assistant coach on defensive side of the ball. You want/need assistant coaches you can trust.

2) Kevin Sutherland shot first 59 ever on the Senior Golf Tour and he bogeyed the 18th hole- he shot 71 Friday, only leads by one stroke. Don't think anyone has ever shot a 58 on the PGA Tour; Sutherland would've, if he parred the 18th.

1) Don't just look at the scores: Ravens led 27-10 at halftime in Dallas, but defense scored a TD, then they ran a kick back for a TD. Baltimore's offense never took the field until 3:21 remained in the first quarter- they had a 96-yard TD drive before the half, but the 27 first half points is a little misleading.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday, August 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Denver - 4:00 PM ET San Francisco -4 500

San Francisco - Over 41.5 500


Kansas City - 8:00 PM ET Kansas City +3 500

Carolina - Over 40.5 500

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend.......

13) Cab driver in Las Vegas posted all 23 of his fares on Twitter Saturday, adding what tip they gave him. After 23 fares, he had $69.30 in tips, so I learned that I'm a better than average tipper.

12) Reds-Rockies game was postponed Saturday because of a water main break outside the stadium, on a sunny day. They played a split doubleheader Sunday because Todd Helton's number 17 was retired yesterday- that game was sold out.

11) If you make the Hall of Fame, they'll make a bobblehead of you; former White Sox/A's/Cardinal skipper Tony Larussa had a bobblehead night in Oakland August 9, a figurine day in St Louis yesterday and has a bobblehead day in Chicago Aug. 30.

10) It takes 27 outs to win a ballgame; quality starting pitchers get you 21+ outs on a regular basis; pretty good starters get you 18+ outs. Suspect starters that cannot finish the 6th inning leave the bullpen exposed to overuse.

Teams like Houston/Bronx who struggle late in games, have starters who struggle getting those 18 outs; that puts undue strain on the bullpen.

9) Rough week for the A's, who are 7-10 since Lester/Cespedes trade; not sure if its a blip in schedule- all teams have rough times in a six-month season, or if its a real problem, as in, "...we traded our best hitter and now we can't score."

8) I can make trades in my fantasy league and it does not affect the team, since they are oblivious to what I'm doing-- there is no such thing as team chemistry in fantasy sports, but in Oakland, they basically blew up their offense. Hard as I try, I can't remember a contending team who traded their cleanup hitter during the season.

When the Samardzija trade happened, I wrote, "he (Cespedes) gives the low-budget A's their swagger--once he walks and breaks the bank, a lot of their invincibility goes too," Well, he didn't walk, he got traded and it seems a lot of Oakland's swagger has gone away, at least until someone else steps up and gets some big base hits.

7) It'll all come out in the end next month, whether the trades worked or not, but I wonder if one more trade for a right-handed bat isn't in Billy Beane's future? A's need more pop in their lineup; doesn't matter who pitches if you can't score.

6) Remember how NFL teams always had those Polaroids faxed down to the bench so players could study formations? Polaroids have been replaced by tablets; saw a few guys (including Bill Belichick) looking at tablets during games this weekend.

5) Took 55 at-bats, but Cubs' 2B prospect Javier Baez finally got his first major league walk; he struck out 21 times before that first walk.

4) Shouldn't major league teams have interpreters for all players who struggle to speak English? Asian players seem to have more interpreters than Hispanic guys who struggle just as much, making a living in a foreign country. Can't be easy.

3) The way NFL rules are set up now, if you don't throw a lot of vertical passes, you're a damn fool. Defensive backs aren't allowed to breathe on receivers, there are ton of penalties called on DBs, to point where I think eventually, they'll switch to the college rule, where pass interference is 15 yards. Got to stretch the defense.

2) Memo to directors on NFL games: Don't show hits on QBs in slow motion; it almost always looks like roughing the passer that way. Show it at real speed.

1) Browns-Redskins on ESPN tonight; Johnny Manziel vs RGIII. Browns said they will alternate QBs every third series. Jon Gruden is analyst on game where his brother Jay is coaching the Redskins; not sure how that will go. Browns' game last week got good ratings on NFL Network. Its still just a preseason game.

 

[CNOTES]

NFLX
Dunkel

Week 2

MONDAY, AUGUST 18

Game 431-432: Cleveland at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.868; Washington 123.730
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NFLX

Monday, August 18

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Game of the Day: Browns at Redskins
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Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins (-2.5, 41.5)

Robert Griffin III will get his first chance to unleash his new offensive approach Monday night as the Washington Redskins entertain the Cleveland Browns in the final game of the second week of the NFL's exhibition schedule. Griffin and the rest of the first-team offense operated a run-heavy strategy in the opener against New England, attempting just four passes. It didn't matter, as the Redskins led from start to finish en route to a 23-6 triumph.

Quarterbacking is also the main focus in the Browns' camp, where the battle for the Week 1 starting role rages on between current favorite Brian Hoyer and popular rookie Johnny Manziel. Hoyer will start Monday's showdown against the Redskins and will likely play most or all of the first half, while Manziel will take the helm for the majority of the second half. Manziel outperformed Hoyer in Cleveland's 13-12 loss to Detroit last weekend.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Washington -3 but has since fallen a half-point. The O/U has risen by one point to 41 1/2.

INJURY REPORT: Cleveland: CB Buster Skrine (thumb) is out; DE Desmond Bryant (wrist) is questionable. Washington: DE Jason Hatcher (knee), ILB Darryl Sharpton (ankle) and RB Chris Thompson (ankle) are out; SS Brandon Meriweather (toe) is questionable.

ABOUT THE BROWNS (0-1): Hoyer has been generating plenty of attention so far in the preseason - much of it negative - but the veteran signal-caller isn't bothered by suggestions he may wind up either as the No. 2 quarterback or as a member of another team. "It doesn't matter," he told reporters last week. "What matters is what coach Mike Pettine thinks and what (offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan) thinks." Hoyer will need a strong showing against the Redskins, with Pettine expected to name his Week 1 starter Tuesday.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-0): It's a brand new day for Griffin and the Redskins' offense, which will look decidedly different under new head coach Jay Gruden. For starters, Griffin will be encouraged to call audibles depending on how opposing defenses are set up - something former offensive coordinator Shanahan avoided. "It's a quarterback's dream," Griffin said. "You want to have some control at the line of scrimmage to get out of some things and protect yourself with different protections."

TRENDS:

* Washington racked up 430 total yards in its exhibition opener; Cleveland had just 291.
* The Redskins are 11-2 in their last 13 preseason games.
* The Browns have allowed more than 20 points just once in their last five exhibition contests.

CONSENSUS: 61.84 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the host Redskins.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday, August 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cleveland - 8:00 PM ET Washington -2 500

Washington - Under 41.5 500

 

[CNOTES]

Preseason Notes - AFC

August 19, 2014


Buffalo: Mike Pettine was plucked away by Cleveland to fill its head coaching vacancy, so Doug Marrone turned to ex-Lions leader Jim Schwartz to come run this defense, something he did well under Jeff Fisher in Tennessee from 2001-08. Thus far, the Bills have survived the season-ending ACL injury to linebacker Kiko Alonso and given a good account of themselves in tight games with the Giants, Panthers and Steelers,. They'll get their longest look at a true first-team offense when the Buccaneers visit on Saturday night. As juicy as Detroit's visit on Aug. 28 looks on paper, we're not going to see how Schwartz plans to attack old friends Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson until the Bills visit Ford Field in Week 5. Tampa Bay, eager to get new starter Josh McCown his most significant action, will offer a valuable test.

Miami: Dolphins fans are getting excited about the offense new coordinator Bill Lazor has implemented given the positive early returns. The team seems to be executing crisply and moving faster, tweaks Ryan Tannehill has taken to thus far despite Mike Wallace rendered ineffective by a hamstring issue and Brian Hartline also missing time. With next week's preseason game likely to feature backups, the only true sneak preview of just how fast-paced the offensive tempo will be might come Saturday against a depleted Cowboys defense that has given up 64 points in losses to San Diego and Baltimore. The Dolphins do host divisional rival New England in Week 1, so it's likely they'll pull back some. Still, fueling Tannehill's increased confidence could factor in since it's Miami's home debut against a vulnerable opponent, especially given the need to get him in a rhythm with his top receivers.

New England: Bill Belichick raved about the work that his team was able to put in against the Eagles, calling it as productive as any week he's ever had during preseason joint practices. As a result, it will be interesting to see just how aggressive he is against a Panthers team facing a short week after playing Sunday night, especially since they pushed Cam Newton as much as they'll likely want to in August. Even though most teams use this third exhibition game to see their starters for lengthy stretches, Belichick has always defied convention when it comes to preparation, which means he could use the bulk of Friday night's game as an audition for players on the fringe of the roster to make closing arguments before the team cuts down from 90 to 75.

N.Y. Jets: It's never good when you're asked immediately after a preseason game if you're going to seek help elsewhere to try and bolster a segment, which Rex Ryan addressed late Saturday. Injuries to likely starters Dee Milliner and Dmitri Patterson bumped up backups Antonio Allen and Ellis Lankster, while former first-rounder Kyle Wilson continues to disappoint, allowing Cincinnati's Andy Dalton to go 8-for-8. This year's first-round pick, safety Calvin Pryor, forced two fumbles and looked every bit the "Louisville Slugger," but it's become clear he may be the lone bright spot among a thin, banged up secondary that could derail the Jets right out of the gate since six of the first seven quarterbacks they'll run into rank among the NFL's top dozen passers. Milliner is sure to sit against the Giants as he waits for a high ankle sprain to heal properly, but Patterson has returned to practice and could ease some concern by performing better than he did in a forgettable debut. As ideal a scenario as that would be, it's likely he'll be standing on the sidelines with Milliner.

Houston: The take that Jadeveon Clowney's jaw-dropping series against Atlanta is diminished because it's preseason is lazy. Clowney destroys left tackle Sam Baker, now out for the season in a major setback for the Falcons, with a fierce rush, tossing aside a former first-rounder with over 50 career starts, to drop Matt Ryan. Yep, it's August, but the Falcons still likely wanted to keep him from being sacked while he was out there. It was probably a point of emphasis. On the previous play, he blew up Antone Smith, arriving to deliver a blow before Ryan can fully pull away after handing off. There are likely going to be some off days and perhaps a date with the rookie wall, but the No. 1 pick will be an impact player on a defensive line filled with them. It will be fun to see how the Broncos handle the challenge of a J.J. Watt/Clowney-led front and how long they expose Peyton Manning to a pass rush likely to be the Texans primary strength.

Indianapolis: Blowing a 26-0 lead in less than 10 minutes would normally be alarming, but fails to even register given the circumstances. The Colts actually have to be thrilled by how their regulars have looked on both sides of the ball, potentially getting a huge boost if Hakeem Nicks continues to get comfortable and stays healthy. The ex-Giant can be an enormous x-factor alongside burner T.Y. Hilton and reliable future Hall of Famer Reggie Wayne, who has yet to debut this preseason and may be held out another week as he aims to return from last year's torn ACL.

Jacksonville: Any success the Jaguars are going to have, either with Chad Henne or Blake Bortles under center, is likely to ride on the guy snapping the ball and the four others around him. For now, the Jaguars are undecided at center, rotating three members each in the mix to be the guy. Former No. 2 pick Luke Joeckel got hurt in October of his rookie season and still has to return to form, while likely starting right tackle Austin Pasztor broke his hand against the Bears last Thursday and won't return until at least mid-September. Bortles is going to take reps with the first team a lot this week and is probably going to get the second quarter against Detroit, but anyone who wants the Jaguars to risk his development by throwing him out there with a shaky line and questionable receivers doesn't have his best long-term interests in mind.

Tennessee: RB Bishop Sankey is going to draw a lot of attention this week, both from his coaching staff and from legions of fantasy owners eager to get over on people in their leagues. The second-round pick has already led the Titans in carries and yards through two games and might be in line for an increased workload since Shonn Greene hurt his knee last week. Though Greene was back practicing, it's doubtful that he'll be pushed extensively at Atlanta when coaches can take an even longer look at a rookie who could wind up being the saving grace for an offensive unit that lacks star power.

Baltimore: Ray Rice only getting suspended two games provides its own debate, but the Ravens are still going to have to replace his production in key AFC North games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The fact both are home games is a plus, but adds to the pressure Bernard Pierce and newcomers Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro will feel trying to fill his shoes. Rice left Saturday's win in Dallas after two carries due to a shoulder issue, but was back at practice early in the week. John Harbaugh may elect to go with the running backs who will play in those first two games against Washington on Saturday, resting Rice and potentially give him some work in the fourth preseason game at New Orleans. While Pierce will be counted on most heavily, Coastal Carolina product Taliaferro, a fourth-round pick, has looked sharp and packs a great burst.

Cincinnati: The plan for Sunday night's visit to Arizona remains to be seen, but it seems unlikely that Darqueze Dennard will play. Head coach Marvin Lewis has already called him the best rookie corner he's ever seen, but after watching him exit against the Jets with a hip injury, matching him up with Larry Fitzgerald or Michael Floyd doesn't seem prudent if he's not 100 percent, removing a potentially intriguing matchup from the showcase.

Cleveland: Between an offensive line that offered shoddy protection, receivers that couldn't catch and inaccurate quarterback play, Bobby Hoyer and Johnny Manziel stood out for all the wrong reasons on Monday night. Despite his desire to name a starting quarterback heading into the third preseason game, it's hard to imagine Pettine and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan having enough information to make a decision they're truly comfortable with, so the circus, er, evaluations, should continue Saturday night. The Browns are home for St. Louis and will see an aggressive defense that you provide a good barometer of who is better at making the right decisions in the face of pressure. Hoyer currently looks more comfortable in the pocket, but Manziel may give the team their best chance to win due to his elusiveness and improvisational skills once he finally adjusts to the speed of the game and better recognizes the defensive coverage.

Pittsburgh: The Steelers seen committed to going no-huddle more often this year, trusting Ben Roethlisberger enough for coordinator Todd Haley to take the handcuffs off and make better use of potentially the fastest team Mike Tomlin has ever had on the offensive side of the ball. Pittsburgh's head coach commented after the Buffalo win that he wanted to see what an increased pace would look like within the "comforts of Heinz Field," which makes you wonder how eager he'll be to test it out in Philadelphia against the ultimate up-tempo team come Thursday night. Given the preseason setting and an early projected total approaching 50, you can infer that oddsmakers believe the Steelers plan to test things out in hostile territory instead of trying to slow the Eagles down as they likely would in a regular-season setting.

Denver: Montee Ball's appendectomy went as expected, his recovery looks like it's going well and all he's seeking is the go-ahead to return to action, but you should expect John Fox and the Broncos staff to be very cautious with him. At this point, young backs Ronnie Hillman, C.J. Anderson and Kapri Gibbs have gotten much needed reps learning how to better pass protect for Peyton Manning and hanging on to the football when they do get it. With an emotional win over Seattle and a rout of the 49ers at new Levi's Stadium under their belt, it's tough to predict how invested Denver is going to be in its final two preseason tests, but rushing Ball back isn't going to be part of the equation.

Kansas City: Star RB Jamaal Charles rolled his foot moving out of the team's training camp quarters, but his absence at Carolina definitely sounds like a case of Andy Reid erring on the side of caution, to be expected since few coaches care less about preseason results than he does. He wants to see quarterbacks Alex Smith and Tyler Bray against Minnesota (Aug. 23) and will likely give Chase Daniel and Aaron Murray the bulk of the work Aug. 28 at Green Bay, but it remains to be seen what the plan is for Charles given the need to have him at 100 percent when the season opens on Sept. 7. An extended absence should result in more game reps for De'Anthony Thomas, who is attempting to pick up the nuances of being an NFL running back after a hybrid role at Oregon.

Oakland: Rookie Derek Carr hadn't passed his concussion tests by late Monday, which takes some of the potential drama out of Oakland's visit to Green Bay on Friday night. Thus far, new acquisition Matt Schaub hasn't alleviated concerns he'll be the guy, turning only one of seven possessions into points. He'll work into the third quarter in an attempt to squash fears that he's washed up, but it remains to be seen if Carr returns to run the second unit or if the bulk of the second half turns into an extended audition for roster hopefuls Matt McGloin and Trent Edwards.

San Diego: The Chargers looked like a Super Bowl contender against Dallas in the opener, but were absolutely squashed by Seattle last week, so it'll be interesting to see how they respond to a 41-14 loss. We'll get a better indication of what type of team they actually are in this third and most important preseason game in Santa Clara, where the 49ers will be out to answer a few questions of their own. Defensive line issues have been among San Diego's primary concerns, so seeing how they bang heads with an elite team coming off their own embarrassing performance creates an interesting dynamic for Sunday's exhibition matinee.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- Baltimore Orioles won again; they lead the AL East by 8.5 games.

-- NBA ref Dick Bavetta retired after 39 years; at age 74, Bavetta had worked his last 2,635 regular season games without missing one. He runs clinics for kids up in Lake Luzerne, where he lives. Good man; we wish him well.

-- Tough break for Ohio State; senior QB Braxton Miller (shoulder) won't play at all this season, lowering expectations greatly in Columbus.

-- Cleveland Browns have had eight head coaches, seven GMs since they came back to the NFL in 1999. Not much continuity there.

-- Don't look now, but NHL preseason starts September 21, only a month away.

-- For second time in a month, a major league home team won a rain-shortened game because its grounds crew couldn't put the tarp on the field properly in fifth inning when the home team held a small lead. This time it was the Cubs. Game was not officially called until after 2am; Giants seemed pretty upset by things.

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: NFL knowledge for a summer day

Some food for thought with the NFL season only 15 days away……….

13) Seahawks won/covered 10 of last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers.

12) Saints won six of last seven meetings against their rivals from Atlanta, with five of last six wins by 6 or less points.

11) Pittsburgh has treated Browns like a pinata, winning 19 of 20 meetings, last three by 14-16-13 points; Cleveland lost last nine visits to Steel City, last six by 11+ points. We'll see if Johnny Manziel can help change that trend.

10) Philadelphia is just 9-23 vs spread at home the last four years, 9-17 as home favorite, 0-2 when laying double digits.

9) Baltimore won its last nine home openers, covering seven, with all nine wins by 7+ points. Bengals started 0-1 five of last six years; they lost five of last seven road openers.

8) Buffalo is just 4-15-1 as road underdogs last three years; they’re 0-5 at Soldier Field, with four losses by 17+ points- their last visit to Windy City was a 40-7 loss in ‘06.

7) Houston went 2-14 LY, losing last 14 games after going 24-10 in previous 34; they won their last four home openers, covering three, scoring 30+ points in all four.

6) Since ‘07, Chiefs are 5-19-1 vs. spread as home favorite; Reid covered once in his last eight home openers KC is 1-6-1 vs. spread in its last eight. Tennessee covered five of its last seven road openers.

5) Over last decade, Patriots are 16-8-2 as road favorite in division games, 57-31-5 as single digit favorite overall. Miami’s last five home openers went over total.

4) Carolina started last five seasons 0-1; they scored 10-7 points in losing last two season openers; five of Panthers’ last six road openers went over total.

3) 49ers are 19-5-2 as single digit favorite under Harbaugh, 10-4 as road favorites, 3-0 in season openers, winning by 16-8-6 points, while scoring 33-30-34 points. Since ‘06, Dallas is 6-2 as home underdog, 4-1 under Garrett.

2) Indy lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 10+ points; the last six years, they’re 0-6 vs. spread in Week 1 games. Manning is 9-5 vs. spread in home openers; Denver is 22-3 SU in last 25 home openers, covering four of last five.

1) Lions won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 vs. spread in last nine home openers, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as road underdogs.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 2 Preseason Notes - NFC

August 20, 2014


Dallas: Without a need to push Tony Romo, he'll go just a couple of series against Miami as the Cowboys attempt to ensure everyone they still plan on joining us come regular season. Dez Bryant showed last week that the offense can remain dynamic since he's a threat to move the chains on every down, while the return of likely starting corners Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr should boost the defense. The Cowboys have been a train wreck thus far and have depth and injury issues, but circumstances dictate that they're going to have to get to Week 1 of the regular season via the methodical route.

N.Y. Giants: Eli Manning has completed one more pass than famous father Archie thus far this preseason. To be fair, he's had nine more attempts, so it's clear the progress new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo has seen in practice hasn't translated to game action. That puts pressure on the Giants to produce against a depleted secondary that has been victimized by Indianapolis' and Cincinnati's first-stringers thus far. It sounds strange to say a two-time Super Bowl MVP would be under the same type of microscope as second-year starter Geno Smith and highly publicized backup Michael Vick, but with only one final preseason game after the Snoopy Bowl and Tom Coughlin troubled by Manning's struggles, the comparison fits. It would be nice to see him find a rhythm before ga, es count. Expect the Giants to be aggressive in taking shots downfield. Victor Cruz, Reuben Randle and Odell Beckham, Jr. should have opportunities to generate some much-needed confidence.

Philadelphia: Rookie Jordan Matthews has had an up-and-down preseason, but still looks like the guy most SEC corners couldn't handle the past few years. He'll have the most help he's ever enjoyed on Thursday night since Jeremy Maclin returns from last week's absence and Riley Cooper debuts. Matthews had nine catches for 104 yards against the Patriots after a drop-filled opener, so how he takes to getting in a rhythm while not comsistently being a primary option should be critical to his early success. He'll get his touches in an offense likely to lead the NFL in plays, so don't be surprised if the Vanderbilt product settles in and his debut becomes just an ugly aberration.

Washington: Surviving a hail mary thanks to a failed two-point conversion gave Washington a Monday night home win, but holding off the Browns provided little consolation given how sloppily the first-team offense played, failing to score. Alfred Morris couldn't handle a pitch and fumbled to kill a drive. They got b stoned at the goal line multiple times. Robert Griffin III connected with DeSean Jackson early, but was picked off easily by Joe Haden and displayed an inability to avoid unnecessary contact. Kirk Cousins looked decent, but the organization would rather trade the backup than ride with him. That's clear. From Daniel Snyder on down, they're all in on RG III. That faith may ultimately rewarded, but none of the higher-ups can be sleeping too soundly these days. The short turnaround before facing the Ravens doesn't make things any easier.

Atlanta: Left tackle Sam Baker is out for the season with a torn patella tendon suffered in Houston, putting immediate pressure on first-round pick Jake Matthews to be a quick learner. Lamar Holmes is going to get first crack at right tackle, the position where Matthews was supposed to start his pro career and ease into the role of elite tackle. Baker missed most of last season, too, but the Falcons were counting on him returning to ease the burden on the rest of the line by providing stability and a veteran presence. Saturday night's game against Tennessee now takes on added importance to see just how far there is to go learning curve-wise since the pieces now have to come together on the fly.

Carolina: Cam Newton is going to play another couple of series at New England to try and knock some of the rust off, but with injuries continuing to plague the offensive line, don't expect the playcalling to be too creative. The play of the new-look secondary should be far more interesting to monitor against the Patriots, as rookie Bene Benwikere is getting a long look at CB, while untested guys like Anderson Russell and Robert Lester are seeing extensive time with Tre Boston and Roman Harper still on the mend.

New Orleans: The Saints have a legitimate kicking competition on their hands as they move in a new direction after parting ways with Garrett Hartley before last year's postseason. Shayne Graham took over and seemed like a lock to return when training camp began, but he's missed one of those extended extra points and been matched kick for kick in practice by Derek Dimke, who nearly made Tampa Bay's roster last year but has yet to kick in an NFL regular season game. The Saints look like one of the most settled teams in the league, roster-wise, but have the good fortune of playing all four preseason games in domes, making it easier to come to a decision on one of their biggest tossups. The battle will continue in Indianapolis.

Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers are set to play their only game outside of Florida until September 18, a span of three preseason games and the first two weeks of the regular season, when they visit Buffalo on Saturday afternoon. It will be an opportunity for Josh McCown to further lead his new football team, putting his stamp on things by working into the second half. After coming up empty in the opener, McCown finally led the Bucs first-team offense to a touchdown, connecting with Vincent Jackson in the second quarter against Miami. Due to an unsettled offensive line situation, a road atmosphere is just what the first group needs to generate confidence under new coordinator Jeff Tedford, who has taken a measured approach to showing off what's being implemented. Tampa Bay is likely to take this third preseason game against the Bills very seriously.

Chicago: Although it's always interesting to test yourself against the defending champions, look for Chicago to avoid putting a lot of stock in testing themselves against an elite Seahawks defense this early in the process, whether they think they're ready or not. Individually, Marc Trestman is specifically looking for somebody to step up and fill the void left by Marquess Wilson breaking his clavicle earlier this month. The Bears signed veteran Santonio Holmes to come in and compete for the No. 3 spot over the weekend and may throw him out there in Seattle, but the plan is for Josh Morgan to get first crack at plugging in Trestman's three-receiver sets alongside Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.

Detroit: Auburn won its first national championship, in part, because of what a force Nick Fairley was. He's been a huge disappointment as a pro, so it's no surprise that Jim Caldwell has arrived in Detroit and been underwhelmed. How Fairley handles the demotion will be critical how effective the Detroit defensive line ends up being, but with weight not being the issue its been in the past, one can only infer that his practice habits and effort level during game reps must be elevated. Again, predictable, but if Fairley doesn't turn things around or decides he's not up for coaching ploys, a major potential edge goes out the window since veteran CJ Mosley won't be as disruptive. We'll be able to see Fairley's immediate reaction against Jacksonville. He played only 15 snaps against the Raiders last Friday, the fewest of any Lions defensive tackle.

Green Bay: The Packers are another team whose starting lineup appears to be all set , with team insiders reporting that not a single job is changed hands since late July, practically unheard at this level given the stiff competition for jobs and injury factor. It will be interesting to see just how long head coach Mike McCarthy rides his starters against visiting Oakland since he and his staff have a lot of decisions to make regarding the depth on the roster. Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien have each looked sharp, so the battle of the backup Aaron Rodgers bears watching in Friday night's national broadcast.

Minnesota: The Vikings seem ready to let rookie Teddy Bridgewater learn from the sidelines, at least for the first few weeks, naming Matt Cassel the starter for the third preseason game on Saturday night in Kansas City. Bridgewater is likely to get time with the first-teamers for experience's sake, but it doesn't seem likely he'll unseat the veteran former Chiefs starter who actually made the Pro Bowl in 2010. Cassel started six games last season with mediocre results, but his strong camp make him the logical choice to open the Mike Zimmer regime unless he melts down at Arrowhead.

Arizona: Darnell Dockett's unfortunate season-ending ACL injury is the second major loss of the offseason for this front seven since leading tackler Daryl Washington was suspended for all of 2014 due to a second substance abuse violation. Even with Tyrann Mathieu back in the fold practice-wise, it will be months before he can even think about being as effective as he was pre-injury. It's undeniable that the unit that was supposed to do the heavy lifting in pulling the Cardinals up to Seattle and San Francisco's level has taken a major hit. The Cardinals will be looking for answers as a welcome Cincinnati in for the Sunday nighter.

San Francisco: To be fair, the 49ers seemed to be favored against Denver simply because they were opening up Levi's Stadium. The 34-0 result came through as Sunday's guaranteed NFL winner, but it was so easy to dissect, in part, because Jim Harbaugh wasn't putting much emphasis on the exhibition home opener. Peyton Manning was going to see more time than Colin Kaepernick and the Broncos backups were clearly further along after an emotional win over Seattle. Sure, Kaepernick could've been sharper, but everyone on both sides of the ball was flat. The backup offensive units have lacked punch because quarterbacks Blaine Gabbert and Josh Johnson have been dreadful, so a Super Bowl contender has been outscored 57-3 in two losses. There are offensive line issues to be concerned about, but the 49ers won't suddenly be terrible. I expect them to actually care this week, which in itself will be an improvement. Harbaugh has been vague about how long starters will play, but you can bet he's eager to see his regulars snap out of their funk against visiting San Diego.

Seattle: Teams ideally shouldn't be angry about an exhibition loss, but considering the Seahawks responded to having their nine-game preseason winning streak snapped by routing the Chargers, Pete Carroll and his team still have the collective fire after winning a Super Bowl. They don't only like to win, they like to beat down teams. That trickles down from first-teamers to guys that won't even be on the roster. Seattle often gets accused a running up scores this time of year in some showing a false bravado, but the fact their third and fourth-stringers often do the piling on speaks of a system and mentality that is simply on a higher level as teams seek out identities in August . From 2012-13, the Seahawks outscored opponents 232-80. They'll welcome in Chicago on Friday.

St. Louis: Even though the third preseason game is typically about seeing what your starters look like, the Rams are a different story. Jeff Fisher is comfortable with how his regulars have looked, so the focus shifts to Michael Sam, who has been productive in his quest to make the squad. His sack last week was the highlight of a solid preseason, but he'll now get after Johnny Manziel when the backups enter in a showdown that could break Twitter. While Sam has been good, St. Louis' defensive front is loaded, and fellow rookie Ethan Westbrooks looks to be ahead of him due to explosiveness and versatility. An eye-opening performance might be necessary for him to stick.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 AFC Season Preview

August 20, 2014


2014 AFC Season Preview

Bronco Busting

Thanks largely to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, and according to coldhardfootballfacts.com, the average NFL game produced 46.82 points in 2013, breaking a largely unknown 65-year-old record for scoring productivity.

The previous mark was set back in 1948 when the average NFL game produced 46.48 points. Yes, you read that right… 1948.

That was when three of the NFL’s 10 teams in 1948 averaged more than 30 PPG. Just one of 32 teams in 2013 averaged more than 30 PPG – the record-setting Broncos.

And despite Denver’s record-shattering scoring mark in 2013 (37.88 PPG), it still ranked behind the 1950 L.A. Rams (38.83).

This side bar note: NFL kickers converted 86.5% of their field goal attempts in 2013. In 1948 they converted 40.9%.

Quick Outs

-- Houston QB’s Matt Schaub and Case Keenum combined for a 74.0 passer rating last season. It was 45.2 points lower than Philadelphia’s Nick Foles’ 119.2.

-- Denver led the league in point differential in 2013 at +207. Cincinnati and Kansas City tied for runner-up honors in the AFC at +125. Jacksonville was the league’s worst point differential squad at -202.

-- Denver’s Wes Welker and Jacksonville’s Cecil Shorts led the AFC in dropped passes in 2013 with 10 each. Chicago’s Brandon Marshall – surprise - led the league with 12 drops.

-- It’s a passing league today and with it the AFC owned the three worst rushing teams in the league last season, Baltimore (1,328), Jacksonville (1,260) and Pittsburgh (1,383). Not so coincidentally, all three teams miss the playoffs.

-- The AFC stands 87-108 SU and 91-97-8 ATS in non-conference clashes against the NFC the past three seasons. They have gone 115-78-2 ‘Over’ in those games.

AFC East Division

BUFFALO
TEAM THEME: A LONG, LONG TIME
Fifteen years, and counting… that's how long it's been since the Bills last made an appearance in the playoffs. They've also enjoyed just one winning season in the process. It’s no wonder owner Ralph Wilson finally said he'd had enough. After all, a 95-year old man can only take so much. The one upside to wallowing in mediocrity is the benefit of being able to replenish lousy talent with high draft choices. Last year's first-round pick, QB E.J. Manuel, assumed the starting duties and figures to improve with experience. He will have plenty of speedy receivers at his disposal with the Bills moving up to the 4th pick to grab the best receiver in the draft, Clemson's Sammy Watkins, to replace the departed Stevie Johnson. Watkins will team with 2nd-year wideouts Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin, along with free agent signee Mike Williams from Tampa Bay. RB's C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson return, while Buffalo added Bryce Brown from Philadelphia. Former 1st-rounders Mario Williams and Marcel Dareus anchor the defensive line, while the Bills have brought in Brandon Spikes from New England to shore up the linebacker corps. Will it be enough to get them over the hump? Only time will tell.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Eleven of Buffalo's last seventeen losses have been by 7 or less points.

MIAMI
TEAM THEME: IN A FLINCH
It's a sad state of affairs when the majority of coverage an NFL team gets during the season surrounds antics off the field. Such was life in Miami last season where the Richie Incognito scandal dominated headlines. After the bullying disaster, the Dolphins immediately canned GM Jeff Ireland and focused their attention on bookending the offensive line, signing stud LT Branden Albert from Kansas City and drafting Jawuan James out of Tennessee to play RT. They also added RB Knowshon Moreno to fill the hole at RB and stole LSU's Jarvis Landry in the draft to complement Mike Wallace and Bryan Hartline at WR, which should make QB Ryan Tannehill a happy man. FYI: contrary to rumors, Tannehill does not suffer from a flinching disorder. It's simply the aftereffect of being sacked a franchise-record 58 times last season. On the flip side, the defense has the chance to be very good if veterans like Cortland Finnegan and Louis Delmas can contribute as expected. Pass rusher Cameron Wake and CB Brett Grimes, Pro Bowlers each, have done more than most people expected, and now others need to step up in order for Miami to improve on last year's 8-8 mark. A soft schedule that features only five games against foes with winning records last year should keep the focus on the field – and the undercover cops at bay this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: From 1970-2003 Miami owned the league's best September home record (42-5). They own the 2nd worst record (4-11) since.

NEW ENGLAND
TEAM THEME: SILVER LININGS
As Steve Merril astutely points out in his 2014 NFL Preview for PLAYBOOK, the Patriots have been one of the most consistent teams over the last decade, winning the AFC East title five straight years, and in ten of the last eleven years overall. They managed to do so last year sans the services of a quality wide receiver, along with the Aaron Hernandez fiasco and all-world TE Rob Gronkowski missing most of the season with a torn ACL. All in all, it was arguably the best coaching job in Bill Belichick's fabled career. The Hoodie made a crafty off-season move bringing in shutdown corner Darrelle Revis to play along with the stellar young linebacker crew of Donta' Hightower, Jerod Mayo and Jamie Collins. With big Vince Wilfork seemingly recovered from an Achilles injury and the selection of DT Dominique Easley with their top pick in this year's draft, a long-time questionable defense could actually change direction this season. And as pointed out above, even in the worst of times, the offense has never been an issue for this team – not with Tom Brady calling signals and disgruntled Bill roaming the sidelines. It has, however, been 10 years since the Pats last tasted a Super Bowl victory. With neither coach nor quarterback able to look in the mirror without help from their hairdresser these days, expect an all-out push this season as the Pats go for their sixth straight division title and 12th in 14 years.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Patriots are 11-1 SU all-time (11-0 last eleven) in games versus the NFC North.

NEW YORK JETS
TEAM THEME: SPLASH EFFECT
On the heels of a 3rd-straight non-winning season, the Jets made quite a splash in free agency this offseason. It started when they acquired dog-killer QB Michael Vick from the Eagles. They also added WR Eric Decker from Denver and RB Chris Johnson from Tennessee. As a result, there’s a quarterback battle brewing between Vick and last year's starter, Geno Smith, with 6th round draft choice Tajh Boyd lurking somewhere in the background. While Vick is widely recognized as a human turnover machine, his numbers – in limited opportunity – pale in comparison to Smith, whose 12 TD’s and 21 INT’s paved the way to a non-descript 66.5 QB Rating. Hence, there is surely a QB war ahead in the Big Apple. "I said from Day One, Geno will be tough to beat...but I also said, Mike's going to have an opportunity to compete, and he will," insists Jets coach Rex Ryan. Call it what you may, we see more turnovers spilling out of MetLife this year than at a Sara Lee factory. And for Ryan, it's imperative he makes a dramatic U-turn sometime soon as three non-winning seasons in a row (22-26) don't hold water to the back-to-back championship game appearances the Flyboys served up during his first two years with the team in 2009-10.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Jets are 8-4 SU all-time vs. the NFC North.

AFC North Division

BALTIMORE
TEAM THEME: BAD BOYS
Just how bad did the Super Bowl Jinx affect the Ravens last season? When you lead the league in penalties with 126 for 1,196 yards, that's bad. When your starting quarterback tosses more interceptions than touchdown passes and finishes the season with a QB Rating (73.1) below Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt McGloin, that's bad. And when your star running back falls nearly 500 yards below his previous output – on 3.1 Yards Per Rush – that's bad. As a result, the Super Bowl ringleaders failed to even make it back to the postseason in 2013. A closer look, though, shows signs of a return to glory in the offing. For openers, last year's rebuilt OL figures to be much improved. There's lots of experience on defense – maybe too much as LB Terrell Suggs, NT Haloti Ngata and DE Elvis Dumervil could be past their prime years. But HC John Harbaugh injected some youth into the equation by going to the last two national champs for some new blood on defense, drafting SS Terrence Brooks and DT Timmy Jernigan from FSU and LB C.J. Mosley from Alabama. Speaking of two-deep, the Ravens have excellent depth everywhere along the ranks. A return to the norm by Flacco and Rice, along with an added infusion by the Smith bros (LB Daryl, CB Jimmy and WR's Steve and Torrey) will find the Black Birds on our play list this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Half (four) of the Ravens’ losses last season were by a field goal or less.

CINCINNATI
TEAM THEME: IT'S NOT EASY BEING ME
Talk about getting no respect, QB Rodney, err, Andy Dalton has led his team to the playoffs in each of his first three years in the league, winning 30 games in the process. And that total would be even higher had Dangerfield, err, Dalton not gone one-and-out in each of his postseason appearances. As such, the redheaded rifle continues to take a back seat to other Pro Bowl quarterbacks in the NFL. We look for that to end this year. This squad has a familiar look with Dalton throwing to A.J. Green and Marvin Jones, and talented RB’s Giovani Bernard and Benjarvis Green-Ellis carrying the football. Meanwhile, talented 2nd-round rookie Jeremy Hill (LSU) figures to challenge for playing time. One of the league's top defensive players that most fans never heard of, Vontaze Burfict (171 total tackles), and Rey Maualuga team to lead an active defense, while DT Geno Atkins will try to bounce back from a torn ACL (he still led the team in sacks despite missing half the season). The pass defense will be much improved with free agents Terrence Newman from Dallas and Reggie Nelson from Jacksonville joining Pac-Man Jones in the secondary, while Darqueze Dennard (1st-round draft choice from Michigan State) will break into the starting lineup sooner rather than later. If the Bengals look to be the team to beat in the AFC North, it's because they are.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: It's been 23 years since the Bengals last won a playoff game – the longest skein in the league.

CLEVELAND
TEAM THEME: UP TO SNUFF
It's been said this franchise chews through coaches like bubble gum. With Mike Pettine the 9th head coach since 1999, it's hard to argue. And while suffering 10 losses in ten of the last eleven seasons, they also tend to spit out quarterbacks faster than the man from Skoal. After going through seven starting QB's the last four years (including three last season), the Browns have officially cycled through 20 starting signal-callers since their rebirth in 1999 – plus 141 coaches and assistants. Or as long-suffering Cleveland fans put it best, ‘WTF.’ Brownstown was stoked when Cleveland selected Heisman winner Johnny Manziel in the first round of the draft this year. How excited was Johnny Football? “I'm going to pour my heart out for the Dawg Pound and try to win a Super Bowl for Cleveland. I don't care if they've had 20 starting quarterbacks since 1999. I'm going to be the 21st and the guy that brought them the Super Bowl.” He'll battle incumbent Brian Hoyer (3-0 SUATS with Cleveland), a local product, for the starting job. Meanwhile, a strong draft, crafty off-season signings and a renewed enthusiasm have new management off on solid footing. Yes, it's been a long time between drinks of winning water but this year's bunch has the look of thirst-quenchers.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The four-win Browns sent five players to the Pro Bowl last year.

PITTSBURGH
TEAM THEME: MUNCH ON THIS
Perhaps the best acquisition during the offseason was the signing of Hall of Fame OL coach Mike Munchak. It's for certain Big Ben is sleeping more these nights knowing his blocking schemes figure to better protect him. The human piñata has been sacked 386 times in his 10-year NFL career, leading to numerous injuries along the way. Roethlisberger welcomes new targets Lance Moore from the Saints and Darius Heyward-Bey from the Raiders. In addition, dynamic speedster Dri Archer, a 3rd round pick from Kent State, figures to be all over the field. Power back LaGarrette Blount comes over from New England to work alongside Le'Veon Bell, assuring a better-balanced attack in 2014. The defense, though, became a cause of concern when it slipped 61 YPG last season. Secondary veterans Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor, and William Gay figure to be great tutors to explosive 2nd-year man Jarvis Jones and the team's 1st round pick, LB Ryan Shazier of Ohio State. After a pair of 8-8 kiss-your-sister seasons in 2012 and 2013, Mike Tomlin will be chomping at the bit to get back to the playoffs – especially with eleven of the losses (five last year) coming by a touchdown or less. With the Steelers a stout 8-3-1 SUATS all-time in games against the NFC South, we won't bet against him.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: QB Ben Roethlisberger is 16-2 SU in his NFL career in games played at Ohio.

AFC South Division

HOUSTON
TEAM THEME: UPSIDE DOWN
In one of the most bizarre seasons in NFL history, Houston's football fortunes were turned upside down like a Texas twister last year. After back-to-back playoff appearances the prior two years, a puzzling 2-win season in 2013 finds HC Gary Kubiak and QB Matt Schaub out, with new HC Bill O'Brien and who-knows-who at quarterback in this season. After passing on Blake Bortles with the #1 pick of this year's draft, it appears Ryan Fitzpatrick will apparently get first crack at the starting QB position. Case Keenum, T.J. Yates and rookie Tom Savage (Pitt) will be the candidates if that doesn't work out. RB Arian Foster will again be the focus of the offense, hoping to catch more balls out of the backfield this year, while WR's Andre Johnson and emerging 2nd-year man DeAndre Hopkins hope one of the aforementioned QB's can somehow get them the football. The defense is strong, with J.J Watt leading the way up front, and top draft pick Jadaveon Clowney rushing from the other side. In addition, Brian Cushing is back from a serious knee injury and a broken leg that limited him to just seven games last season. It all looks good on paper, but so did a stat sheet that found them winning games by 29 YPG last year. Go figure.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Texans suffered nine losses by a TD or less last season, including five by a FG or less.

INDIANAPOLIS
TEAM THEME: STREAK OF LUCK
Proving his worth, Colts QB Andrew Luck inherited a 2-14 squad and turned them into playoff prodigies his first two years behind center with Indianapolis. And while it can be said he did it with smoke and mirrors (Indy was outstatted both seasons), the fact of the matter is he did it with several key players missing with injuries last year, including the services of star WR Reggie Wayne, who suffered a season-ending injury in Game Seven. Wayne is back from the injury list this season, along with TE Dwayne Allen and RB Vick Ballard. In addition, they've added talent in the form of Hakeem Nicks at WR to go with elusive T.Y. Hilton. There are problems on defense with Robert Mathis suspended for the first four games following his best season (19.5 sacks). It all points to a possible tough year for HC Chuck Pagano and DC Greg Manusky. The schedule maker comes to their aid, however, as the Colts take on the softest Strength of Schedule in the league, facing foes that owned a combined .430 win percentage overall, including .414 away. That's because only four foes on this year's itinerary owned winning records in 2013. We're not sure if it’s the luck of the draw or the skill of the quarterback, but one thing we know for sure: Indy is awfully lucky to have Andrew on their side.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Colts are 30-5 SU at home in division games since 2002.

JACKSONVILLE
TEAM THEME: JACKED UP FOR REAL
How important was the Bye Week for the Jaguars last season? We're not sure if it took that long for the team to buy into new coach Gus Bradley's schemes, or an embarrassing 1-20 skein – including a 13-game losing streak – factored into the equation, but the fact is these Cats were a different team thereafter. A 4-4 finish included three road wins, leaving Jacksonville in a positive state of mind for the first time in three years. The Jags are building for the future while they keep stockpiling talent… and getting there could happen a lot sooner than most people expect with QB Blake Bortles as the centerpiece of the new movement. RB Maurice Jones-Drew has departed for Oakland and will be replaced by former Viking workhorse, Toby Gerhart. While it appears WR Justin Blackmon is irreparable, one or more of the talented rookie crew could emerge: Marquise Lee (USC), Allen Robinson (Penn State), Damian Copeland (Louisville) and Allen Hurns (Miami). On defense, Paul Posluszny is back after finishing second in the NFL with 162 total tackles. In addition, Bradley used his past years at Seattle to attract DE's Red Bryant and DB Chris Clemons from the Super Bowl champs. Yes, the Jags are definitely moving in the right direction.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Jaguars are 11-1 ATS as road dogs with same-season revenge.

TENNESSEE
TEAM THEME: GEE WHIZ
When the Titans severed ties with Mike Munchak, a majority of those in upper management were torn. Munchak had served 14 years with the team as a loyal comrade: he was the O-line coach before assuming head coaching duties in 2011 when Jeff Fisher departed. A 5-year playoff famine was the inevitable determining factor. As a result, Munchak is out and former Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt is in. Whiz inherits a nice blend of talent with a squad that actually improved its numbers on both sides of the ball last year. Additionally, the Titans will square off against the 2nd softest schedule in the league overall (foes .433) while hosting the cushiest opponents (foes .416), with only one foe invading LP Field with a winning record from last year. Tennessee drafted monstrous OT Taylor Lewan #1 out of Michigan after selecting Alabama guard Chance Warmack with their top pick last year, solidifying the right side of their offensive line for years to come. Despite losing RB Chris Johnson to the Jets, the running game is in good hands with Shonn Greene, Dexter McCluster and star rookie RB Bishop Sankey. In addition, Whisenhunt brought in former sidekick Ray Horton to handle the defense. For a team that suffered six losses by 8 or less points last year, the playoff drought could be ending soon.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Titans are 9-1 SUATS as dogs versus the NFC East.

AFC West Division

DENVER
TEAM THEME: BEATING A DEAD HORSE
Q: When is a 35-point loss in the Super Bowl not as bad as it appeared? A: when you are outstatted by only 35 yards in a minus-4 turnover performance. Be that as it may, the Broncos left SB XLVIII with their tails dragging after Peyton Manning was held to 8 or fewer points for only the 8th time in 263 career games in the NFL. The Broncos quickly became busy in free agency, picking up DeMarcus Ware from Dallas on the defensive line and CB Aqib Talib from New England. Along with returning star LB Von Miller, the defense immediately went from mediocre to good. There are several question marks about Miller, however, as a six-game drug suspension started last season, followed by weight gain upon his return and some erratic play, then an early end to the season with a torn ACL. The Broncos also must survive some losses, but a cast of veteran receivers, including Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and TE Julius Thomas – along with a stellar offensive line that remains nearly intact – and you now know why Denver is favored by most to return to the Super Bowl. We're unlike most, however, as the dreaded 'Super Bowl loser jinx' is affixed squarely to their backs. And to that we say, “riders up.”

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Denver is 2-7 SU and ATS versus the NFC West, including 0-4 SU and ATS the last four.

KANSAS CITY
TEAM THEME: THE PAIN CLINIC
Andy Reid proved to be the elixir needed to take the Chiefs from their losing ways straight to the playoffs when Kansas City became only the 2nd team other than 1980 Denver to start a season 5-0 after going 2-14 the previous year. After stretching the start to 9-0, the Featherheads went 2-5 thereafter before choking like Greg Norman at the Masters in a 45-44 loss to the Colts in the playoffs – a game they actually led 38-10 in the 3Q. So what do they do for an encore after last year's painful fall from grace? Aside from being forced to rebuild the O-line, KC must face the toughest home Strength of Schedule in the league, with foes owning a .570 win percentage last season. That being said, don't look for anything close to last year's liftoff as, after opening with a home game against the Titans, the Chiefs go on the road to Denver, Miami and San Francisco for three of the next four, with a Monday-nighter against the Patriots squeezed into the middle. A winning record going into the Bye Week – and at season's end – would be quite an accomplishment. Meanwhile, two players from this year's draft look to contribute: RB De'Anthony Thomas, who fits into the mold of the departed Dexter McCluster as special teams return man and part-time slot receiver, and QB Aaron Murray, who looks to be the Chiefs signal-caller of the future.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Chiefs are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last ten games vs. NFC West opponents.

OAKLAND

TEAM THEME: DOUBLE TROUBLE
For some reason, the Raiders seem to enjoy doing things in pairs: back-to-back 4-12 seasons the last two years, preceded by 8-8 campaigns the prior two seasons, and two 5-11 efforts before that. They have also lost eight games by double-digit margins each of the past two seasons. What better way to break the pattern than to bring in the Pick-6 King – Matt Schaub – to quarterback this year's team. Compounding matters, Oakland will take on the most difficult strength of schedule in the league with 11 games against winning teams. As a result, the Raiders hit the free agent market hard. The question is, are they a bunch of guys that nobody wanted, or will they use the rejection to motivate them into showing they have something left? Newcomers on offense include the likes of Schaub, WR’s James Jones and Greg Little, plus RB Maurice Jones-Drew, along with several offensive linemen. The defensive pick-ups are a little more exciting: Lamarr Woodley, Justin Tuck, Antonio Smith and CB Carlos Rogers. Again, do any of these guys have anything left in the tank? The best new name could be top draft pick LB Khalil Mack out of Buffalo, who looks like a can't-miss prospect. With rookie QB Derek Carr battling Schaub, it would be no surprise to find a two-headed quarterback situation in Oakland this year. So what else is new?

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Raiders are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS vs. opponents off a pair of losses by 7 or more points each.

SAN DIEGO
TEAM THEME: DOWNSTREAMING
After a successful 10-win playoff campaign last season the Chargers are another team that pretty much ignored the free agent market, picking up Donald Brown of the Colts to join the mix of Ryan Matthews, Danny Woodhead, and a couple of rookies, Marion Grice of Arizona State and Branden Oliver of Buffalo in a crowded backfield. The other significant signing was Kellen Clemens from the Rams to backup Philip Rivers at quarterback. Rivers rebounded superbly off a pair of lackluster seasons the previous two years, as his 105.5 QB Rating last season was 2nd only to Peyton Manning among starters with at least 12 starts. A lot of what happens this year, of course, depends on the mercurial Rivers, but the receiving corps is solid, as is the defense, and as a whole this team absolutely loves HC Mike McCoy. The top draft pick, CB Jason Verrett of TCU, has a good chance to step in as a starter alongside veterans Eric Weddle and Marcus Gilchrist. It will be interesting to see how the Chargers respond after losing OC Ken Whisenhunt (new Titans head coach) considering the offense improved a whopping 84 YPG last season. This much we know for sure: San Diego's record has regressed each year seven times in a row since 1982 after winning 10 or more games the previous season. Stay tuned.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Philip Rivers is 30-6 SU during the month of December in his NFL career.

 

[CNOTES]

NFLX
Dunkel

Week 3

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
After dropping their first two preseason games on the road, the Eagles return home on Thursday night to host the Steelers. Philadelphia is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3). Here are all of this week's NFL preseason picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 21

Game 251-252: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 117.637; Philadelphia 123.507
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 54
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Over


FRIDAY, AUGUST 22

Game 253-254: Jacksonville at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 119.913; Detroit 119.628
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Under

Game 255-256: Carolina at New England (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 120.647; New England 127.834
Dunkel Line: New England by 7; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-5 1/2); Under

Game 257-258: NY Giants at NY Jets (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 123.112; NY Jets 120.310
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 3; 38
Vegas Line: Pick; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants; Under

Game 259-260: Oakland at Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 117.593; Green Bay 127.752
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10; 39
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7); Under

Game 261-262: Chicago at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 123.063; Seattle 114.292
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+7); Over


SATURDAY, AUGUST 23

Game 263-264: Tampa Bay at Buffalo (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 117.388; Buffalo 117.265
Dunkel Line: Even; 37
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Under

Game 265-266: Dallas at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 116.629; Miami 122.375
Dunkel Line: Miami by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3); Under

Game 267-268: Tennessee at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 117.683; Atlanta 123.237
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3). Under

Game 269-270: Washington at Baltimore (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 129.374; Baltimore 128.615
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

Game 271-272: New Orleans at Indianapolis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 124.133; Indianapolis 120.404
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2 1/2); Over

Game 273-274: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.372; Kansas City 123.744
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); Over

Game 275-276: St. Louis at Cleveland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.388; Cleveland 119.025
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 39
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 42 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Under

Game 277-278: Houston at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 122.281; Denver 133.029
Dunkel Line: Denver by 10; 50
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 46
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Over


SUNDAY, AUGUST 24

Game 279-280: San Diego at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 115.806; San Francisco 124.394
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 8 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6 1/2); Under

Game 281-282: Cincinnati at Arizona (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 121.517; Arizona 120.477
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2); Under




NFLX

Thursday, August 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Steelers at Eagles
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 50)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have more to deal with than just their in-state rivals Thursday night as they tangle with the host Philadelphia Eagles in the kickoff to Week 3 of the NFL preseason. Steelers running backs LeVeon Bell and LeGarrette Blount face marijuana charges after being stopped shortly before the Steelers left for Philadelphia. Bell reportedly didn't accompany the team after being arrested, but made the trip on his own; Blount did travel with the club.

With their statuses in limbo, 2014 draft pick Dri Archer may find himself thrust into the spotlight. Archer has had just four carries through the team's first two preseason games, but he has flashed some impressive skills in the receiving game with four catches for a whopping 94 yards. The Eagles will be looking to tighten up the defense after getting torched for 76 points in preseason-opening losses to the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network

LINE HISTORY: The line has held steady at Philadelphia -3, while the over/under has risen one point to 50.

INJURY REPORT: Pittsburgh: CB Shaquille Richardson (knee), LB Greg Warren (knee), G Cody Wallace (finger), LB Jordan Zumwalt (groin), TE Eric Waters (concussion) and G Bryant Browning (shoulder) are all out. Philadelphia: C Julian Vandervelde (back), LB Bryan Braman (back), CB Jaylen Watkins (hamstring), ILB Jake Knott (hamstring), RB Chris Polk (hamstring), WR Josh Huff (shoulder) and WR Brad Smith (groin) are expected to miss the game.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (0-2): Philadelphia has hemorrhaged points over the first eight quarters of the preseason, but that won't keep head coach Chip Kelly from executing his gameplan regarding key players and their playing time. That approach will see the Eagles face Pittsburgh without inside linebacker and defensive lynch pin DeMeco Ryans, who has started all 32 regular-season games since joining the team in a 2012 trade with Houston. Kelly wants to give the 30-year-old Ryans sufficient rest heading into the campaign.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (1-1): Pittsburgh will need to refocus in the wake of the Bell and Blount arrests, and will look to do that by taking the shackles off the first-team offense in what will likely be quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's last significant tuneup before the regular season starts. Roethlisberger will likely play the entire first half against the Eagles, and is expected to get a chance to run the no-huddle offense that Pittsburgh wants to use more often this season. Roethlisberger went 8-of-11 for 128 yards and two TDs in last week's win over Buffalo.

TRENDS:

* Pittsburgh has dropped five of its last six preseason games.
* Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS over its last six exhibition games after going 6-1-1 ATS over its previous eight.
* The Steelers are 1-6 O/U in their last seven exhibition contests.

CONSENSUS: 62.15 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the host Eagles.

 

[CNOTES]

[h=3]Thursday, August 21[/h]

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Pittsburgh	-	7:30 PM ET	Philadelphia -3.5	500
Philadelphia	-		Over 50	500

 

[CNOTES]

NFLX
Dunkel

Week 3

FRIDAY, AUGUST 22

Game 253-254: Jacksonville at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 119.913; Detroit 119.628
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Under

Game 255-256: Carolina at New England (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 120.647; New England 127.834
Dunkel Line: New England by 7; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-5 1/2); Under

Game 257-258: NY Giants at NY Jets (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 123.112; NY Jets 120.310
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 3; 38
Vegas Line: Pick; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants; Under

Game 259-260: Oakland at Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 117.593; Green Bay 127.752
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10; 39
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7); Under

Game 261-262: Chicago at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 123.063; Seattle 114.292
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+7); Over


SATURDAY, AUGUST 23

Game 263-264: Tampa Bay at Buffalo (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 117.388; Buffalo 117.265
Dunkel Line: Even; 37
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Under

Game 265-266: Dallas at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 116.629; Miami 122.375
Dunkel Line: Miami by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3); Under

Game 267-268: Tennessee at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 117.683; Atlanta 123.237
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3). Under

Game 269-270: Washington at Baltimore (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 129.374; Baltimore 128.615
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

Game 271-272: New Orleans at Indianapolis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 124.133; Indianapolis 120.404
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2 1/2); Over

Game 273-274: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.372; Kansas City 123.744
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); Over

Game 275-276: St. Louis at Cleveland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.388; Cleveland 119.025
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 39
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 42 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Under

Game 277-278: Houston at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 122.281; Denver 133.029
Dunkel Line: Denver by 10; 50
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 46
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Over


SUNDAY, AUGUST 24

Game 279-280: San Diego at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 115.806; San Francisco 124.394
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 8 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6 1/2); Under

Game 281-282: Cincinnati at Arizona (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 121.517; Arizona 120.477
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2); Under

 

[CNOTES]

CFL
Dunkel

Montreal at Winnipeg
The Alouettes head to Winnipeg this week to face a Blue Bombers team that is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 home games. Montreal is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Bombers favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+7 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, AUGUST 22

Game 291-292: Montreal at Winnipeg (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 105.318; Winnipeg 109.414
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 7 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+7 1/2); Under


SATURDAY, AUGUST 23

Game 293-294: Toronto at Edmonton (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.662; Edmonton 121.882
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 11; 53
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 8; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-8); Over


SUNDAY, AUGUST 24

Game 295-296: Calgary at Ottawa (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 120.005; Ottawa 106.237
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 14; 53
Vegas Line: Calgary by 8 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-8 1/2); Over

Game 297-298: Saskatchewan at BC (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 116.826; BC 117.979
Dunkel Line: BC by 1; 55
Vegas Line: BC by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+3 1/2); Over




CFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Friday, August 22

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MONTREAL (1 - 6) at WINNIPEG (5 - 3) - 8/22/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games when playing on a Friday since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 5-3 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 5-3 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, August 23

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TORONTO (3 - 5) at EDMONTON (6 - 1) - 8/23/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 69-97 ATS (-37.7 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
EDMONTON is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, August 24

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CALGARY (6 - 1) at OTTAWA (1 - 6) - 8/24/2014, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1996.
CALGARY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 1-0 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 1-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SASKATCHEWAN (5 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (5 - 3) - 8/24/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 68-43 ATS (+20.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 114-74 ATS (+32.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 61-40 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 103-68 ATS (+28.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-4 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-4 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Montreal (1-6) @ Winnipeg (5-3)-- Bombers (+3) won 34-33 at Montreal in Week 3, even though they were outgained by 105 yards- that game started Als on 5-game losing streak. Winnipeg won three in row, five of last six series games with visitor winning five of last six meetings. Alouettes scored total of 24 points in losing all three road games, by 21-36-5 points (1-2 as road underdog); five of their last seven visits here went over total. Montreal was outscored 64-20 in first half of their last four games. Bombers lost last two games after 5-1 start; they're 1-1 as home favorites, winning first two home games by 24-8 points, losing last two at home.

Toronto (3-5) @ Edmonton (6-1)-- Argonauts won last three series games by 16-3-12 points;, as underdogs covered five of last seven in series. Toronto scored 42-36-34 points in last three series tilts. Argos lost three of four road games, losing by 24-1-28 points; they're 2-3 as underdogs, 1-1 on road. Edmonton turned ball eight times (-6) in last three games but is still 6-1, 2-1 at home, 1-1 as home favorites, winning by 4-16, losing to Calgary. In two wins since their bye, Eskimos ran ball for 197-181 yards; Argos gave up 167 in their loss to BC last week. Six of seven Eskimo games, five of last six Toronto games stayed under total.

Calgary (6-1) @ Ottawa (1-6)-- Stampeders (-13) led 28-7 at half two weeks ago in a 38-17 home win over Ottawa; Stamps held RedBlacks to 39 rushing yards- they're 3-0 as road favorites, with wins on foreign soil by 19-4-10 points (+5 turnover ratio on road). Ottawa lost its last four games but covered two of three as home underdog, upsetting Toronto, losing by 24-2 points- they lost to Eskimos 10-8 last week, after leading at half for 4th time in seven games- they've averaged 13 ppg in last thee games, after averaging 19.8 ppg in first four. Three of last four games for both sides went over total.

Saskatchewan (5-2) @ BCLions (5-3)-- Lions (+5) upset defending champs 26-13 in Regina back in Week 3, avenging loss from LY's playoffs. Riders' 31-17 (+3) win here LY snapped four-game skid in this building. BC had 186 rushing yards first meeting; Saskatchewan hasn't allowed 100+ on ground since- they're 4-0 since that loss, wnning last two weeks by 6-5 points. Lions won last three games, five of six since 0-2 start; they're 2-2 SU at home, but covered three of last four when favoried. 19 of last 24 series games stayed under total, as have six of eight Lion games, four of last five Roughrider games.




CFL

Week 9

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Trend Report
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Friday, August 22

8:30 PM
MONTREAL vs. WINNIPEG
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games on the road
Montreal is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
Winnipeg is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home


Saturday, August 23

4:00 PM
TORONTO vs. EDMONTON
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games at home
Edmonton is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games at home


Sunday, August 24

3:00 PM
CALGARY vs. OTTAWA
Calgary is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 9 games when playing Ottawa
Ottawa is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games
Ottawa is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

7:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Saskatchewan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of British Columbia's last 12 games when playing Saskatchewan


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CFL

Week 9

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Game of the Day: Alouettes at Blue Bombers
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Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-7, 49.5)

The Montreal Alouettes have a chance to halt their five-game losing streak when they visit the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Friday. Winnipeg looks vulnerable after losing its last two games, while Montreal desperately needs a victory to turn around its floundering season. West Division teams are 20-3 against the East in 2014, but the Blue Bombers allowed 38 points in a loss to the Toronto Argonauts in Week 8.

Winnipeg’s defense allowed 360 rushing yards over its last two contests, which bodes well for an Alouettes' offense without a reliable option at quarterback. Alex Brink is expected to get the start for Montreal, which will likely lean heavily on running backs Brandon Whitaker and Tyrell Sutton. Drew Willy will be under center for the Blue Bombers, who need to avoid adding to their league-worst turnover ratio and force the Alouettes to score touchdowns on offense.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Bombers as 7-point home faves for the matchup. The total opened at 50.5.

INJURY REPORT: Alouettes - QB Troy Smith (Six-game IR, undisclosed).

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (1-6): Brink has not thrown a touchdown pass since 2012, but Troy Smith is on the six-game injured list and Tanner Marsh has thrown for 17 yards in 2014. Wide receiver Duron Carter returned a missed field goal for a touchdown in a rare kick-returning appearance last week, but starting kick returner Larry Taylor could be available to return from a knee injury. Defensive end John Bowman is setting the pace on defense with a team-leading seven sacks.

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (5-3): Willy is second in the league with 2,158 passing yards, while slotback Clarence Denmark is one of only two players in the league with more than 500 receiving yards. Slotback Nick Moore has been practicing with the team and is expected to return to the lineup on Friday after missing time with a foot injury. Defensive end Greg Peach is two sacks shy of tying his career-high of six, set in 2009 and matched in 2012.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Winnipeg.
* Alouettes are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Blue Bombers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in August.
* Under is 6-0 in Alouettes last six road games.

CONSENSUS: Sixty percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the Blue Bombers.

 

[CNOTES]

Ravens rising up

August 22, 2014


Teams to Watch: N.Y. Giants · Philadelphia

It has started to dawn upon Baltimore Ravens (2013 SUR 8-8; PSR 7-8-1; O/U 8-8) backers that 2012 was maybe the culmination of a great five-season run for HC John Harbaugh...not the beginning of an extended dynasty. The Ravens' slip to 8-8 last fall suggested more than a Super Bowl hangover, as many key pieces from the title run had either departed or were noticeably on the decline. Whether or not that might include QB Joe Flacco, entering his 7th season this fall, remains to be seen. Flacco's 2013 numbers dropped precipitously (a career-worst 22 picks) after signing the big offseason contract worth $120 million, which also contributed to some salary juggling required elsewhere on the roster by GM Ozzie Newsome...all factors in a disappointing 8-8 finish.

Flacco's struggles were not the only issues with the offense. The running game simply didn't work last season, either, with an NFL-worst 3.1 ypg and a mere 83 ypg (which ranked a poor 30th). Moreover, the "O" surrendered a hefty 48 sacks and conceded a total of 91 quarterback hits, much too high of a number.

Downgrades were not limited to the offense; in Baltimore, the defenses are held to a much higher standard than last year's 12th overall ranking. While still formidable, the "D" had definitely lost some of its swagger from the playoff years, especially with the Ray Lewis and Ed Reed influences having departed after the Super Bowl year.

A quick Ravens recovery back to playoff status this fall, however, would not be a complete surprise. Early reports suggest a possible offensive renaissance under new O.C. Gary Kubiak, in recent years the HC at Houston but a longtime play-caller who had previously coordinated Mike Shanahan's offenses while in Denver. Many AFC North onlookers expect a much sharper-edge from this season's strike force after the attack floundered a year ago under former O.C. Jim Caldwell, whose offseason hire by the Lions to be their head coach caused more than a few quizzical looks around the league.

Caldwell's main contributions to the offense, upon his replacement of Cam Cameron as O.C. late in the 2012 Super Bowl season, were merely to get out of the way of Flacco, who famously clashed with Cameron regarding the latter's resistance to Flacco audibilizing at the line of scrimmage. When the friction between O.C. and QB became intolerable, Harbaugh hit the eject button on Cameron just when the 2012 playoff berth seemed to be slipping away from the Ravens. Caldwell simply allowed Flacco the freedom to run the offense thereafter, with the reward being the eventual Super Bowl win. But when Caldwell became more involved with design and implementation of the offense last season, the attack suffered. The switch to Kubiak has already proven palpable to AFC observers, who believe Flacco will benefit from sharper play-calling as well as the flexibility to change plays if needed.

Of course, issues remain, specifically regarding RB Ray Rice, who showed signs of real wear-and-tear last season when gaining only 3.1 ypc. And that was before his now infamous off-field troubles in the offseason that have prompted an early 2-game suspension from commissioner Roger Goodell. If and when Rice returns, he should find a bit more room to rumble thanks to Kubiak's heavy reliance on zone blocking, which has been a plus for his running games with both the Texans and Broncos. Adjustments began in the offseason, when adding C Jeremy Zutah from Tampa Bay to replace Gino Gradkowski, who struggled in his first year as the starter. Left tackle Eugene Monroe, acquired in midseason from the Jags a year ago, figures to be the new anchor in the forward wall.

Meanwhile, Bernard Pierce, who has become more involved with ball-toting duties, was likely to share carries with Rice anyway, and will probably be the featured back at the outset, although Coastal Carolina rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro has been a revelation in training camp and whose one-cut running style appears an ideal fit for Kubiak's new zone-blocking scheme that helped carve out a whopping 237 rush yards in the preseason opener vs. the 49ers. Rice could eventually rediscover some of his pre-2013 form as well, although the extent of his eventual contributions are a bit hard to gauge in August.

Flacco's downfield passing game also seemed to suffer last season when Baltimore never really compensated for key target Anquan Boldin's offseason departure to San Francisco, and was further hampered by TE Dennis Pitta's injuries. Help, however, seems to have arrived with ex-Panther WR Steve Smith and ex-Texans TE Owen Daniels, both added in the offseason. If either has any gas left in their tanks, and alongside a now-healthy Pitta (who, along with Daniels, should benefit from Kubiak, a proponent of TEs), Flacco figures to benefit, as would WR Torrey Smith, who might not draw as much attention from opposing defenses after emerging as the preferred target last season with 74 receptions.

As mentioned, defense is expected to be good in Baltimore, whose fans have been treated to top-notch stop units for most of the millennium. And most expect the Ravens to be representative again on the stop end, though D.C. Dean Pees is dealing with advancing age in his platoon, with five major contributors in the team's front seven now 30 years of age or older. Pees also lost a couple of key cogs in free agency, as DE Arthur Jones moved to the Colts and S James Ihedigbo left for the Lions. Nickel back Corey Graham also departed to the Bills, perhaps hampering depth and flexibility in the secondary.

Still, playmakers abound, and OLBs Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs remain plenty disruptive on the edges, while ILB Daryl Smith tackled almost everyone in reach last season. The nucleus of the defensive backfield, CBs Ladarius Webb and Jimmy Smith, stood tall in 2013, and there are indications that the top two draft picks, Alabama ILB C.J. Mosley & Florida State DT Timmy Jerningan, are going to be able to make positive contributions off the bat, and perhaps offset some of the creeping age concerns for the platoon.

By past Ravens standards, the "D" might have much to prove, but in context with the rest of the league, the Baltimore stop unit hardly appears to be past its sell-by date.

The Ravens get a chance to make a statement within the North in their first three games, all vs. division foes, beginning opening day at M&T Bank Stadium vs. the Bengals. It would not shock us to see Baltimore reassume command that it relinquished in the division last season.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Preseason Tips

August 22, 2014

Week 2 Recap: The home teams started strong last week by winning the first five games, but the road clubs rebounded by going 6-5 in the final 11 contests. The 'over' went 10-6 last week, while the 'over' cashed in last night's Eagles/Steelers contest to kick off Week 3 of the preseason.

Jaguars at Lions (-3, 44 ½) – 7:30 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records:
JAX: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS
DET: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS

Preseason review: The Jaguars have played a pair of low-scoring affairs, while squandering a 19-7 lead in the fourth quarter of a 20-19 setback at Chicago last Thursday. Jacksonville managed to cover as three-point underdogs, but the Jags have scored just 35 points in its first two exhibition games. The Lions are coming off consecutive one-point decisions, as Detroit lost in the final seconds at Oakland last Friday, 27-26 as three-point ‘dogs.

Last preseason meeting: First preseason meeting ever

Panthers at Patriots (-5 ½, 45 ½) – 7:30 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records:
CAR: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
NE: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS

Preseason review: New England outlasted Philadelphia, 42-35 as two-point favorites last week in Tom Brady’s preseason debut, as all six quarterbacks that played each threw at least one touchdown pass. The Panthers cruised past the Chiefs, 28-16 in their second preseason contest at home, one week after falling to the Bills. Carolina has cashed the ‘over’ in five of its past six home exhibition contests.

Last preseason meeting: Patriots beat Panthers, 24-7 as one-point road underdogs in 2007.

Expert Analysis: Pat Hawkins - The Panthers under head coach Ron Rivera have proven over the last two seasons that they take the "dress rehearsal" preseason game very seriously going 2-0 last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Pats under Bill Belichick have gone 0-6 in the last six dress rehearsal games. Look for the Carolina defense to be strong limiting Brady and Company as the Pats treat this game as just a warm-up.

Giants at Jets (PK, 42 ½) – 7:30 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records:
NYG: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS
NYJ: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS

Preseason review: The Giants have won their three exhibition games by a combined nine points, while erasing a 26-0 deficit in a 27-26 victory over the Colts. The Jets are also unbeaten in the preseason, as New York rallied from 14 points down in the third quarter to stun Cincinnati, 25-17 as three-point underdogs.

Last preseason meeting: Jets beat Giants, 24-21 in overtime as one-point road favorites in 2013.

Expert Analysis: The Gold Sheet - The Giants, despite their 27-26 fluke win last week at Indianapoils last week, continue to struggle with their new offense, which was scoreless for the first three quarters until Indy played its deep reserves. This is a Jets "home" game tonight in East Rutherford, and they should have the majority of the fans. These preseason Giants-Jets games have always been more meaningful to the Jets against the more established Giants. This year, the Jets are deeper at RB and sounder on defense than the Giants.

Raiders at Packers (-7, 44) – 8:00 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records:
OAK: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS
GB: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS

Preseason review: The Raiders have looked clunky through two preseason games, losing at Minnesota in the opener, 10-7, while rallying to top Detroit at home, 27-26 last Friday, but failed to cover each time. The Packers put together a solid effort in a 21-7 triumph at St. Louis last Saturday, racking up 386 yards on offense, while cashing as 2 ½-point road underdogs.

Last preseason meeting: Raiders beat Packers, 24-13 as five-point home favorites in 2001.

Bears at Seahawks (-7, 45) – 10:00 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records:
CHI: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS
SEA: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS

Preseason review: The Bears hit the road for the first time this preseason after coming off a pair of close home wins over the Eagles and Jaguars. Chicago erased deficits in each win, including coming back from a 28-17 hole against Philadelphia in a 34-28 victory in the opener. The Seahawks saw their eight-game preseason winning streak come to an end in the opener at Denver, but Seattle rebounded in a huge way by dominating San Diego, 41-14 last week as six-point home favorites.

Last preseason meeting: Seahawks beat Bears in overtime, 29-26 as one-point home underdogs in 2006.

Expert Analysis: Bruce Marshall - Pete Carroll's team looks to have rebounded quickly from its opening loss at Denver with a characteristic solid exhibition romp past San Diego last Friday. That marked the 10th SU win in 11 preseason games and 11th cover in 12 exhibitions for Carroll. Moreover, only one of those ten Seahawks wins was by a single-digit margin, and even that was by seven points and a spread cover last August at Green Bay. We'll stick with recent preseason history and ride with Seattle once more.