Cnotes preseason thread with stats-trends- qb rotation- picks etc. !!

[CNOTES]

NFC North NFL betting preview: Lions dangerous in deep division

The Packers, Bears and Lions all have legit shots at the NFC North crown, which should make for some interesting games between those heated rivals. The Vikings, on the other hand, look to Adrian Peterson’s aging legs and a new coaching staff to keep them competitive – and out of the basement - in the division.

Green Bay Packers (2013: 8-7-1 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: -145
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Packers: After winning at least 10 games for four straight seasons, the Packers won just eight games last season but it wasn't because of a team regression. Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 9, Green Bay suffered through a five-game losing streak, and while Rodgers came back to win the season finale to take the division, it was an early playoff exit. The Packers will be a motivated bunch this season.

Why not bet the Packers: Defense. The Packers allowed 26.8 points per game last season, the most given up in over a decade and a repeat of that will cause issues. The return of Clay Matthews and the addition of Julius Peppers will certainly help, but will it be enough? A running game behind Rodgers is essential as well but that’s no guarantee either.

Season win total pick: Under 10.5


Chicago Bears (2013: 8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +310
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Bears: This is the second year in the system under head coach Marc Trestman and after improving last season, things could be even more explosive in 2014. Jay Cutler had his best passer rating since his rookie season in 2006 and got a new contract to prove his worth. The defense can only get better with the additions of Jared Allen and D.J Williams.

Why not to bet the Bears: Similar to Green Bay, it comes down to the defense which allowed almost two touchdowns per game more than the previous season. But even an improved stop unit may not be enough. Keeping Cutler healthy is huge as there is no proven backup. Should he go down again, the Bears will be outside of the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5


Detroit Lions (2013: 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS)

Odds to win division: +360
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Lions: After making the playoffs just once in five years under Jim Schwartz, a change was made and Jim Caldwell was brought in. The offense will again be explosive behind Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and the return of the entire offensive line. The defense could be the best in years and a tame schedule could make Detroit a sleeper in the NFC North.

Why not to bet the Lions: Expectations have been high for the last few years and the Lions have failed to meet them, so why should this year be any different? Bringing in a new head coach can't hurt but Caldwell was not the popular choice. He was the offensive coordinator in Baltimore last season and the Ravens were 29th in the league in total offense.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Minnesota Vikings (2013: 5-10-1 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: +1300
Season win total: 6

Why to bet the Vikings: New head coach Mike Zimmer comes into town with a roster full of talent and Minnesota was better than last season's record shows. Four of the Vikings’ losses were by four points or less and now with low expectations, they could turn the tables on some of those winnable games. The schedule is in their favor as they play only three teams that had a winning record last season.

Why not to bet the Vikings: While the schedule is tame, it is frontloaded. Facing New England, New Orleans, Atlanta and Green Bay in Weeks 2 through 5 could set the table for another bad start, which could ultimately deflate the team early. The defense was the worst in the NFL last season and playing in the offensively-potent NFC North is not going to help matters.

Season win total pick: Over 6

 

[CNOTES]

NFC East NFL betting preview: Eagles favorites in overrated division

Most folks will tell you that the NFC East has been one of the most overrated, not to mention overhyped, divisions in football for years. While that may be the case, it does promise to be ultra-competitive in 2014.

Philadelphia Eagles (2013: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS)

Division odds: +140
Season win total: 9

Why bet the Eagles: Chip Kelly’s offense operated at warp speed a year ago, and it should be even faster in 2014. At least that’s the plan. DeSean Jackson is gone but the Eagles still boast considerable depth at wide receiver, with Jeremy Maclin back and Riley Cooper poised to build on a career year. The addition of Darren Sproles gives Philadelphia even more versatility while LeSean McCoy might just be the biggest gamebreaker in the league.

Why not bet the Eagles: The Eagles essentially stood pat when it comes to offseason moves on the defensive side of the football. They believe they can take a big step forward, but a look at their personnel indicates otherwise. There’s also a lot more pressure on QB Nick Foles following his breakout 2013 campaign. He certainly won’t catch opposing defenses by surprise.

Season win total pick: Under 9


Washington Redskins (2013: 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS)

Division odds: +350
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Redskins: New head coach Jay Gruden should inject some life into the Redskins, who suffered a massive letdown due to injuries last season. A healthy Robert Griffin III obviously makes all the difference in the world, as does the addition of DeSean Jackson to the receiving corps. Don’t forget Pierre Garcon quietly led the league in catches a year ago.

Why not bet the Redskins: The defense. It was bad last season and could be even worse in 2014. The biggest problem lies in the secondary, where the Skins are likely to get torched on a weekly basis. A lot of pressure will be placed on the front seven to pick up the slack, especially in a pass-happy NFC East division. Will this group be completely worn down by the midway point of the season?

Season win total pick: Over 7.5


Dallas Cowboys (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Division odds: +350
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Cowboys: The window of opportunity is closing for a number of Cowboys stalwarts and that should be more than enough motivation to draw their best effort in 2014. Dallas more than held its own with an awful defense a year ago. So if it can improve even marginally in that department, it should be able to control its own destiny this season.

Why not bet the Cowboys: Tony Romo is recovering from offseason back surgery but that’s the least of the Cowboys concerns in the injury department. They lost the star of their defense, Sean Lee, to a season-ending injury. That’s not to mention the departures of DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher on that side of the football.

Season win total pick: Over 8


New York Giants (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Division odds: +250
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Giants: Changes needed to be made following a disappointing 7-9 campaign and owner John Mara didn’t disappoint, adding no fewer than 20 new players and opening up the wallet to the tune of $100 million. The offense should improve thanks to a new West Coast scheme, while the defense has been shored up, particularly in the secondary. Playing in the NFC East, that point is magnified.

Why not bet the Giants: You never really know whether sweeping changes will pay off, especially in the short term. How will Eli Manning adapt to the new offensive philosophy? Can the offensive line hold up its end of the bargain following a miserable 2013 season? To be honest, there are more questions than answers at this point. That’s not to mention the fact that the Giants schedule is unforgiving, especially early on.

Season win total pick: Under 8

 

[CNOTES]

Preseason Notes - NFC

August 12, 2014

Week 1 of the NFL preseason is in the books and if you rode the home teams last weekend, then you fared well at the betting counter as the hosts posted a 14-2 record.

Against the number, bettors watched the favorites go 12-4 straight up and 10-3-1 against the spread while the ‘under’ produced a 12-4 mark.

Looking ahead to the season week of the preseason, oddsmakers have listed the home team as favorites in all 16 games. Despite a flurry of ‘under’ winners last week, most totals are hovering above 40 points and the Eagles-Patriots matchup on Friday has a number hovering around 47.

Including the Hall of Fame Game on Aug. 3 that saw the Giants defeat the Bills 17-13 from Canton, the NFC owns a slight 7-6 advantage over the AFC in this year’s preseason.

In case you missed any of this year’s preseason, here are my notes for all 16 teams in the NFC.

Dallas: Despite a goal line stand when they forced a fumble from Ryan Mathews, the Cowboys defense looked horrendous. The Chargers moved the ball seemingly at will and beat Dallas on short runs, deep balls and everything in between, taking full advantage of a painfully obvious lack of depth. While Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray and Jason Witten seeing their first action against Baltimore will get the headlines, Dallas' defensive improvement is what matters most for a unit that has already struggled with attrition. With Morris Claiborne nursing a sore knee, the team got bad news on Monday night when Jerry Jones revealed CB Orlando Skandrick will miss the regular season's first four games due to a substance abuse violation.

N.Y. Giants: Installing a new offense has been made tougher by David Wilson's retirement and Peyton Hillis' absence, though rookie Andre Williams has taken to an increased role extremely well. The reigning Doak Walker Award winner is averaging six rushing yards per carry, but still needs to prove he can help protect Eli Manning and Curtis Painter, elevated to a primary backup role ahead of Ryan Nassib. Look for him to get extensive action with the ones and twos against Indianapolis in what is likely to be an extensive test to see whether he can truly handle an extensive load.

Philadelphia: Nick Foles was pressured heavily by Chicago's front seven and didn't handle it well, throwing a pair of ugly interceptions. He had his timing thrown off in a timing-based offense, which combined with new backup Mark Sanchez's strong debut, has everyone but Eagles coaches overreacting. Chip Kelly will stick with him and seems to have no fear of a third-year decline, but that doesn't mean panic won't become the overwhelming narrative if he plays poorly at New England. Joint practices with the Patriots may mean more than the actual game, especially with Darrelle Revis on a quest for redemption, but Foles should do himself a favor and avoid turnovers to keep the Philly press from overreacting.

Washington: Since Robert Griffin III looks like he's moving around like old times, interest in Kirk Cousins is sure to ramp up again. That makes his next game against Cleveland a huge audition, taking place in a Monday nighter everyone will be watching because of Johnny Manziel. Given all the quarterbacks involved, it sure would open eyes if he can be the most productive on the field. Look for Jay Gruden to be aggressive, especially with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon suiting up for the first time.

Atlanta: Julio Jones wasn't even in uniform against Miami, and while his workload will increase, it's highly doubtful that he'll play Friday night in Houston. That means the team can take a longer look at roster hopefuls beyond locks Roddy White and Harry Douglas. Rookies Geraldo Boldewijn, Bernard Reedy and Freddie Martino will all get their shot, but have to get more accurate QB play from backups T.J. Yates and Sean Renfrew, who were a combined 13-for-31 against the Dolphins.

Carolina: With Cam Newton, D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart scheduled to debut on Sunday night against the Chiefs, the Panthers will look to see how some of their pieces fit. Remember, they had a pair of key offensive linemen retire and saw top receivers Steve Smith and Ted Ginn depart, so the opening game was really one you can discard outside of first-round pick Kelvin Benjamin's only reception going for 29 yards and six points. They managed 75 first-half yards. It will be interesting to see how long they participate, but the first meaningful action of the season is set to come after Carrie Underwood's theme song plays on NBC.

New Orleans: Drew Brees says he might have the fastest weapons around him that he's ever worked with, surprising because jitterbug Darren Sproles is now playing for the Eagles. Rookie Brandin Cooks' first-round selection raised some eyebrows given the team's other needs, but suddenly looks like an absolute steal since the Rams had no prayer of staying in front of him. He'll debut in front of the home crowd at the Superdome against Tennessee on Saturday and should expect to be on the Titans radar. He managed to remain an NFL secret for about two minutes.

Tampa Bay: Vincent Jackson only got one grab in the 16-10 loss in Jacksonville, so it's not a huge deal that No. 7 pick Mike Evans goes into the preseason home opener against Miami without a reception. He was targeted only twice, so expect to see a concerted effort to get him on the same page with QBs Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, even if it requires force-feeding him. The Buccaneers did see a productive debut from rookie Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, a tight end taken in the second round who could make the offense dynamic alongside new acquisition Brandon Myers. Expect new offensive coordinator Jeff Telford to seek out bigger plays in his second test drive with this bunch.

Chicago: The Bears should've had a far easier time with Philadelphia, but left points on the board after turnovers and were really sloppy on special teams. Josh Huff took a kickoff 102 yards inside of the first half's two- minute warning, a horrid look for long-time special teams coordinator Joe DeCamilis. His unit muffed a punt and had a field goal blocked, so you can probably count on a cleaner effort in Thursday's nationally televised home game against the Jaguars. Head coach Marc Trestman has already stated plans to move people around, which means there will be an increased sense of urgency and attention to detail from guys looking to impress in an area that often plays tiebreaker when deciding who makes the team.

Detroit: Rookie tight end Eric Ebron went from being unlikely to play to being extremely active in his first stint of action against Cleveland. The Lions declined to disclose the nature of the injury, but felt comfortable enough with his mobility to target him four times, getting him a reception in a game situation as they look to feed his confidence following a drop-filled start to training camp. The 10th pick in this past NFL Draft figures to feature heavily in the next few exhibitions, and between center Travis Swanson, the second-string offense will have two potential game-changing rookies in the mix at Oakland, which bodes well for them against an opponent that was held scoreless for more than three quarters in Minnesota. Swanson will have to clean up his snap game, however, since he had a key turnover against the Browns that nearly sealed a loss before Kellen Moore rescued the result with some clutch late throws.

Green Bay: Defensive coordinator Dom Capers was instructed by head coach Mike McCarthy to keep coverages simple and not give anything away since the Packers will visit Seattle on the opening Thursday night. Still, they left the first team defense on the field following a turnover in Tennessee to see whether they would hold up. A second straight road date against the Rams should call for another vanilla approach, especially on turf, but it's worth pointing out that Green Day's only preseason win in 2013 was a 19-7 result in St. Louis in Week 2.

Minnesota: The Vikings sound ready to really test expected starter Matt Cassel, who only got 10 snaps in the opener, looking sharp in completing 5-of-6. The Cardinals defense is down a few men, but should offer a great look with their ability to generate pressure. Rookie second-rounder Teddy Bridgewater will see the bulk of time after Cassel, leaving mop-up duty for Cristian Ponder. That could create a potentially beneficial situation to have a former starter against third-string defense that gave up the only points against the Raiders, especially if raw project Logan Thomas sees late action for Arizona and the game is close. The Vikings drew over 50,000 for the preseason opener.

Arizona: The Cardinals aren't hiding their excitement over third-rounder John Brown, a Pittsburg State product from South Florida viewed as an immediate difference-maker. He caught five passes for 87 yards in a 32-0 rout of Houston, working well with backup Drew Stanton after catching a 25-yard strike from Carson Palmer in his only series co-exist in with the starting QB and top receiver Larry Fitzgerald. He's a potential x-factor worth monitoring closely as he takes the field at Minnesota, and the fact his alma mater's teams are nicknamed the Gorillas makes it al, the easier to root for him.

San Francisco: Although rookie Carlos Hyde looked like the load he was expected to be running the football, the rest of the 49ers offensive reserves left much to be desired in the 23-3 loss in Baltimore. The 49ers are hoping to get a boost from ex-Bills star Stevie Johnson, but he didn't get much help from Colin Kaepernick backups Blaine Gabbert, Josh Johnson and McLeod Bethel-Thompson, who went a combined 12-for-26 for 109 yards and two interceptions. Kaepernick should throw more than a single pass in Saturdays afternoon home date with Denver, but the lack of production beyond him is alarming and could put them at a disadvantage against the Brock Osweiler-led Broncos second-string that got so many quality reps in turning away the Seahawks last week.

Seattle: The Seahawks saw their nine-game preseason win streak snapped when Terrelle Pryor was intercepted at the goal line, but he did a real nice job marching down the field, showing off better accuracy in addition to his usual speed and elusiveness. It wouldn't be surprising to see Pryor push Tarvaris Jackson for the top backup spot behind Russell Wilson, and he should have plenty of reps since Pete Carroll isn't likely to expose Wilson much due to the multiple absences along the offensive line. Starters Russell Okung, Max Unger and James Carpenter all missed the Denver game, but are back at practice, slowly working their way back from nagging injuries. San Diego could take advantage, but the Seahawks have lost only one home game -- preseason, regular season or playoffs -- in their last 22 outings, a string that began Aug. 11, 2012.

St. Louis: Rookie running back Tre Mason showed terrific burst and drew praise from Rams legend Marshall Faulk on the St. Louis broadcast. The Hall of Famer believes Mason is a grinder who can be a 25-30 carry guy in spite of his small stature. Even though though Zac Stacy looks like the starter and Mason opened with the fourth-string, he ended up with 51 yards on 15 carries despite seeing a few big runs called back against New Orleans. If he continues to excel, he'll be a weapon throughout the preseason in winnable games against Green Bay, Cleveland and Miami.

 

[CNOTES]

NFLX
Dunkel

Week 2

Jacksonville at Chicago
The Bears kick off the second week of the preseason looking to follow up on their 34-28 win over the Eagles in the opener. Chicago is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-4). Here are all of this week's NFL preseason picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 14

Game 401-402: Jacksonville at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 115.012; Chicago 123.963
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Chicago by 4; 42
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-4); Over


FRIDAY, AUGUST 15

Game 403-404: Philadelphia at New England (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 119.426; New England 124.915
Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Over

Game 405-406: Tennessee at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 122.570; New Orleans 124.246
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2); Over

Game 407-408: Detroit at Oakland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 123.242; Oakland 119.979
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2 1/2); Under

Game 409-410: San Diego at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 123.140; Seattle 131.958
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 9; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-5 1/2); Under


SATURDAY, AUGUST 16

Game 411-412: Green Bay at St. Louis (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 117.284; St. Louis 121.856
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: NY Giants at Indianapolis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 120.028; Indianapolis 119.488
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Over

Game 415-416: Baltimore at Dallas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 126.112; Dallas 119.132
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 37
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1); Under

Game 417-418: NY Jets at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 118.838; Cincinnati 125.989
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2); Over

Game 419-420: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 117.315; Pittsburgh 121.786
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Miami at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.514; Tampa Bay 117.249
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2); Under

Game 423-424: Atlanta at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.476; Houston 119.042
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Arizona at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 120.519; Minnesota 124.930
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over


SUNDAY, AUGUST 17

Game 427-428: Denver at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.393; San Francisco 125.031
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

Game 429-430: Kansas City at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.384; Carolina 122.008
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over


MONDAY, AUGUST 18

Game 431-432: Cleveland at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.868; Washington 123.730
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over

 

[CNOTES]

Preseason Notes - AFC

August 14, 2014


Earlier this week, we provided notes on all 16 NFC teams for Week 1 of the preseason. After watching all of the games, here are my thoughts on the 16 squads from the AFC.

Buffalo: Sammy Watkins only has three catches for 21 yards through his first two contests, but he's been as advertised in camp, looking every bit like the No. 1 receiver he was drafted to be. Expect him and second-year QB E.J. Manuel to take their shots against a veteran Steelers secondary. Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is trying to get his own unit up to speed, creating a great opportunity for Doug Marrone to see exactly where his young offense stands in their third preseason game.

Miami: Jimmy Wilson is getting first-team reps since strong safety Rashad Jones was suspended for the regular season's first four games, so look for the first quarter of this short trip to Tampa Bay to be quite telling on the defensive side of the ball. The Buccaneers are working with a new starting QB Josh McCown, so since Matt Ryan took the Falcons right down the field against the first string last week, we're going to see an honest effort from that unit. Missed tackles and poor coverage were issues the Dolphins don't want to see follow them into the regular season.

New England: Tom Brady will see his first game action at home against Philadelphia, a necessity since this week's joint practices have been marred by rainy weather, unlike last week's work against Washington. He's stated that he'd like to play as long as Bill Belichick will let him, so expect him to lead multiple drives against the Eagles. Brady completed his first 11 passes in the second preseason game last year, but won't have Rob Gronkowski to work with since the tight end still hasn't been cleared for contact.

N.Y. Jets: Geno Smith was erratic against Indianapolis. While his line did him no favors, the second-year quarterback failed to show off his improved grasp of the offense that has created separation between him and Michael Vick. Smith has taken over 80 percent of the first-team reps thus far in training camp, so he'll get plenty of rope over the next few weeks to lay claim to the starting job, a foregone conclusion according to Jets observers. Vick created something out of nothing against the Colts and will likely have a few packages installed to take advantage of his unique abilities even if he remains the backup, but it would be interesting to see what transpires if he shines at Cincinnati while Smith again struggles.

Houston: No starting QB fared worse last week than Ryan Fitzpatrick, so while the gospel dictates that you shouldn't read much into preseason, you better believe that internal pressure has ramped up. Tom Savage won't start as a rookie, but Case Keenum does have enough experience to move up to No. 1 on the depth chart if he moves the offense against Atlanta while Fitzpatrick is brutal again and hears boos at home. First-year head coach Bill O'Brien is likely to play the hot hand who gives the Texans their best chance to beat visiting Washington in the opener.

Indianapolis: The Colts dodged an immense bullet when tests on center Khaled Holmes showed that an ankle injury suffered against the Jets wasn't serious. Rookie Jonotthan Harrison, an undrafted free agent from Florida, played the bulk of the meaningful snaps once Holmes went down, which illustrates the lack of depth at a key position snapping balls to Andrew Luck. The best case scenario for Holmes would be to return for Week 1 of the regular season, which means Harrison 's ability to carve out a top backup role is vital. Expect him to play extensively against the Giants.

Jacksonville: While rookie QB Blake Bortles looked sharp in his home debut against the Bucs, the plan to "redshirt" the first offer site player selected in the 2014 draft remains and will likely be in place through at least the regular season's opening month. His college teammate at UCF, running back Storm Johnson may actually wind up seeing more action in 2014, getting second team reps behind Jordan Todman due to Toby Gerhart's early absence. Gerhart returned to practice after missing two weeks with a hip flexor injury and may start against Chicago on Thursday night, but Johnson and former college QB Denard Robinson are likely to get the bulk of the reps, particularly in the second half when the game is decided. Johnson runs hard and has a patient approach to hitting holes that you like to see from young backs.

Tennessee: With Ken Whisenhunt replacing Mike Munchak as head coach, starter Jake Locker gets a clean slate. A new regime means his injury related struggles and inconsistency can be washed away by a strong showing in training camp as the former No. 8 pick seeks to build trust with his new coaches. Wet conditions limited his playing time in Week 1, resulting in 1-for-2 passing for five yards against Green Bay. Word out of Titans camp is that he's looked sharp and impressed. He'll start road games at New Orleans on Friday and at Atlanta next week, so weather won't be a factor as he looks to generate momentum and lead a new-look offense.

Baltimore: A 23-3 whipping of kid brother Jim's 49ers produced a satisfying opening preseason result, but these next two weeks are going to be critical for John Harbaugh's Ravens, who open the regular season against three straight AFC North opponents. Home games against the Bengals and Steelers will be played without Ray Rice due to his well-documented suspension, so getting Bernard Pierce, Justin Forsett and rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro up to speed while keeping them healthy takes priority at Dallas and home against Washington the next two Saturdays.

Cincinnati: Andy Dalton hit A.J. Green for 53 yards on the opening drive at Arrowhead, but it definitely wasn't business as usual for the Bengals. Starting linemen Andrew Whitworth, Andre Smith and Clint Boling all sat and will likely again be unavailable against the Jets this week. Given New York's impressive defense site front and the varied looks they offer, it's unlikely Dalton will be exposed much, especially with top backup Jason Campbell banged up and No. 2 receiver Marvin Jones out with foot injury. Undrafted rookie Matt Scott, Nick Foles' former backup at Arizona, is likely to get a ton of reps this week.

Cleveland: Johnny Manziel was average in his debut against Detroit, missing early reads in his progression and trusting his legs more than his arm, but there's no question he's got the strength to make throws against professional defenses. The expectation is that the NFL's most popular rookie will start Monday night's game at Washington, which means we'll probably see more of read option packages and wrinkles that OC Kyle Shanahan will have in place for Manziel against his former employer. Brian Hoyer should also get time with the starters, so this second game may actually be more important to the Browns than the traditional third-game dress rehearsal. Rex Grossman arrives after being signed this week to upgrade the No. 3 spot since he's so familiar with Shanahan's system, so the offense should produce more than just managed last Saturday.

Pittsburgh: Ohio State product Ryan Shazier should be on everyone's short list for top defensive rookie, right there with Houston's Jadeveon Clowney and Oakland's Khalil Mack. Expected to start at weakside linebacker, Shazier sat out the preseason opener with a knee injury but looks likely to participate this weekend against Buffalo. We'll hopefully all get to see why he created such a buzz before suffering a slight setback, but anyone who saw him with the Buckeyes can already tell you. He's blessed with speed and plays with a ferocity that can't be taught.

Denver: Danny Trevathan isn't Peyton Manning, Wes Welker or Demariyus Thomas. He's not even as recognizable as high-profile acquisitions DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib. Still, the outside linebacker is probably the most irreplaceable piece on the defense due to his versatility. He played on most downs, led the Broncos in tackles and was clearly on the rise before a tibial impact fracture of his left leg suffered Tuesday sidelined him for 6-8 weeks. Former fifth-round picks Brandon Marshall and Lamin Barrow, a rookie from LSU, will be under the microscope the next few weeks as likely replacements if the team doesn't acquire additional help.

Kansas City: The Chiefs went three and-out in their opening drive against Cincinnati, so even though they piled up 41 points in their preseason-opening home win, there was plenty for Andy Reid and his staff to dissect. After all, roughly half their points came as a result of two interception TD returns in addition to a punt return for a score, so the huge scoring output is misleading. Of the team's quarterbacks, only Chase Daniel stood out and threw for a score, so look for Reid to see where his first-stringers stand against a typically stingy Carolina defense on Sunday night, especially since Alex Smith's final play after sputtering on that first drive saw him sacked and stripped.

Oakland: If we're talking about Matt McGloin leading the Raiders to their only points again, something has gone horribly wrong. Friday's home game vs. Detroit is bound to be one where Oakland head coach Dennis Allen looks to impressed, especially since Bay area media pointed out that owner Mark Davis was visibly disgusted watching from his box in Minneapolis. Matt Schaub went 3-for-7 and will see plenty more action against the Lions, while rookie second-round pick Derek Carr should be given every opportunity to become an instant fan favorite in order to generate some hope after a woeful Week 1 loss to the Vikings. Scoring only six points provided an immediate buzz kill in what is expected to be an improved season for a franchise coming off consecutive 4-12 records that hasn't topped .500 since 2002.

San Diego: Frank Reich was promoted from QB coach to offensive coordinator when Whisenhunt left for Tennessee, so he's seeing his first action calling plays. Although he got a chance to do it sporadically last year, he's starting to develop his style this preseason, developing developing a rapport with Philip Rivers, who always prefers to be aggressive. With road games at the Seahawks and 49ers on tap the next few weeks, it will be interesting to see whether the Chargers use these games as an opportunity to generate confidence by pulling no punches against Super Bowl contenders. The offense is by far the team's healthiest segment, missing only WR Vincent Brown and guard Jeromey Clary.

 

[CNOTES]

Preseason Notes - NFC

August 12, 2014


Week 1 of the NFL preseason is in the books and if you rode the home teams last weekend, then you fared well at the betting counter as the hosts posted a 14-2 record.

Against the number, bettors watched the favorites go 12-4 straight up and 10-3-1 against the spread while the ‘under’ produced a 12-4 mark.

Looking ahead to the season week of the preseason, oddsmakers have listed the home team as favorites in all 16 games. Despite a flurry of ‘under’ winners last week, most totals are hovering above 40 points and the Eagles-Patriots matchup on Friday has a number hovering around 47.

Including the Hall of Fame Game on Aug. 3 that saw the Giants defeat the Bills 17-13 from Canton, the NFC owns a slight 7-6 advantage over the AFC in this year’s preseason.

In case you missed any of this year’s preseason, here are my notes for all 16 teams in the NFC.

Dallas: Despite a goal line stand when they forced a fumble from Ryan Mathews, the Cowboys defense looked horrendous. The Chargers moved the ball seemingly at will and beat Dallas on short runs, deep balls and everything in between, taking full advantage of a painfully obvious lack of depth. While Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray and Jason Witten seeing their first action against Baltimore will get the headlines, Dallas' defensive improvement is what matters most for a unit that has already struggled with attrition. With Morris Claiborne nursing a sore knee, the team got bad news on Monday night when Jerry Jones revealed CB Orlando Skandrick will miss the regular season's first four games due to a substance abuse violation.

N.Y. Giants: Installing a new offense has been made tougher by David Wilson's retirement and Peyton Hillis' absence, though rookie Andre Williams has taken to an increased role extremely well. The reigning Doak Walker Award winner is averaging six rushing yards per carry, but still needs to prove he can help protect Eli Manning and Curtis Painter, elevated to a primary backup role ahead of Ryan Nassib. Look for him to get extensive action with the ones and twos against Indianapolis in what is likely to be an extensive test to see whether he can truly handle an extensive load.

Philadelphia: Nick Foles was pressured heavily by Chicago's front seven and didn't handle it well, throwing a pair of ugly interceptions. He had his timing thrown off in a timing-based offense, which combined with new backup Mark Sanchez's strong debut, has everyone but Eagles coaches overreacting. Chip Kelly will stick with him and seems to have no fear of a third-year decline, but that doesn't mean panic won't become the overwhelming narrative if he plays poorly at New England. Joint practices with the Patriots may mean more than the actual game, especially with Darrelle Revis on a quest for redemption, but Foles should do himself a favor and avoid turnovers to keep the Philly press from overreacting.

Washington: Since Robert Griffin III looks like he's moving around like old times, interest in Kirk Cousins is sure to ramp up again. That makes his next game against Cleveland a huge audition, taking place in a Monday nighter everyone will be watching because of Johnny Manziel. Given all the quarterbacks involved, it sure would open eyes if he can be the most productive on the field. Look for Jay Gruden to be aggressive, especially with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon suiting up for the first time.

Atlanta: Julio Jones wasn't even in uniform against Miami, and while his workload will increase, it's highly doubtful that he'll play Friday night in Houston. That means the team can take a longer look at roster hopefuls beyond locks Roddy White and Harry Douglas. Rookies Geraldo Boldewijn, Bernard Reedy and Freddie Martino will all get their shot, but have to get more accurate QB play from backups T.J. Yates and Sean Renfree, who were a combined 13-for-31 against the Dolphins.

Carolina: With Cam Newton, D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart scheduled to debut on Sunday night against the Chiefs, the Panthers will look to see how some of their pieces fit. Remember, they had a pair of key offensive linemen retire and saw top receivers Steve Smith and Ted Ginn depart, so the opening game was really one you can discard outside of first-round pick Kelvin Benjamin's only reception going for 29 yards and six points. They managed 75 first-half yards. It will be interesting to see how long they participate, but the first meaningful action of the season is set to come after Carrie Underwood's theme song plays on NBC.

New Orleans: Drew Brees says he might have the fastest weapons around him that he's ever worked with, surprising because jitterbug Darren Sproles is now playing for the Eagles. Rookie Brandin Cooks' first-round selection raised some eyebrows given the team's other needs, but suddenly looks like an absolute steal since the Rams had no prayer of staying in front of him. He'll debut in front of the home crowd at the Superdome against Tennessee on Saturday and should expect to be on the Titans radar. He managed to remain an NFL secret for about two minutes.

Tampa Bay: Vincent Jackson only got one grab in the 16-10 loss in Jacksonville, so it's not a huge deal that No. 7 pick Mike Evans goes into the preseason home opener against Miami without a reception. He was targeted only twice, so expect to see a concerted effort to get him on the same page with QBs Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, even if it requires force-feeding him. The Buccaneers did see a productive debut from rookie Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, a tight end taken in the second round who could make the offense dynamic alongside new acquisition Brandon Myers. Expect new offensive coordinator Jeff Telford to seek out bigger plays in his second test drive with this bunch.

Chicago: The Bears should've had a far easier time with Philadelphia, but left points on the board after turnovers and were really sloppy on special teams. Josh Huff took a kickoff 102 yards inside of the first half's two- minute warning, a horrid look for long-time special teams coordinator Joe DeCamilis. His unit muffed a punt and had a field goal blocked, so you can probably count on a cleaner effort in Thursday's nationally televised home game against the Jaguars. Head coach Marc Trestman has already stated plans to move people around, which means there will be an increased sense of urgency and attention to detail from guys looking to impress in an area that often plays tiebreaker when deciding who makes the team.

Detroit: Rookie tight end Eric Ebron went from being unlikely to play to being extremely active in his first stint of action against Cleveland. The Lions declined to disclose the nature of the injury, but felt comfortable enough with his mobility to target him four times, getting him a reception in a game situation as they look to feed his confidence following a drop-filled start to training camp. The 10th pick in this past NFL Draft figures to feature heavily in the next few exhibitions, and between center Travis Swanson, the second-string offense will have two potential game-changing rookies in the mix at Oakland, which bodes well for them against an opponent that was held scoreless for more than three quarters in Minnesota. Swanson will have to clean up his snap game, however, since he had a key turnover against the Browns that nearly sealed a loss before Kellen Moore rescued the result with some clutch late throws.

Green Bay: Defensive coordinator Dom Capers was instructed by head coach Mike McCarthy to keep coverages simple and not give anything away since the Packers will visit Seattle on the opening Thursday night. Still, they left the first team defense on the field following a turnover in Tennessee to see whether they would hold up. A second straight road date against the Rams should call for another vanilla approach, especially on turf, but it's worth pointing out that Green Day's only preseason win in 2013 was a 19-7 result in St. Louis in Week 2.

Minnesota: The Vikings sound ready to really test expected starter Matt Cassel, who only got 10 snaps in the opener, looking sharp in completing 5-of-6. The Cardinals defense is down a few men, but should offer a great look with their ability to generate pressure. Rookie second-rounder Teddy Bridgewater will see the bulk of time after Cassel, leaving mop-up duty for Cristian Ponder. That could create a potentially beneficial situation to have a former starter against third-string defense that gave up the only points against the Raiders, especially if raw project Logan Thomas sees late action for Arizona and the game is close. The Vikings drew over 50,000 for the preseason opener.

Arizona: The Cardinals aren't hiding their excitement over third-rounder John Brown, a Pittsburg State product from South Florida viewed as an immediate difference-maker. He caught five passes for 87 yards in a 32-0 rout of Houston, working well with backup Drew Stanton after catching a 25-yard strike from Carson Palmer in his only series co-exist in with the starting QB and top receiver Larry Fitzgerald. He's a potential x-factor worth monitoring closely as he takes the field at Minnesota, and the fact his alma mater's teams are nicknamed the Gorillas makes it al, the easier to root for him.

San Francisco: Although rookie Carlos Hyde looked like the load he was expected to be running the football, the rest of the 49ers offensive reserves left much to be desired in the 23-3 loss in Baltimore. The 49ers are hoping to get a boost from ex-Bills star Stevie Johnson, but he didn't get much help from Colin Kaepernick backups Blaine Gabbert, Josh Johnson and McLeod Bethel-Thompson, who went a combined 12-for-26 for 109 yards and two interceptions. Kaepernick should throw more than a single pass in Saturdays afternoon home date with Denver, but the lack of production beyond him is alarming and could put them at a disadvantage against the Brock Osweiler-led Broncos second-string that got so many quality reps in turning away the Seahawks last week.

Seattle: The Seahawks saw their nine-game preseason win streak snapped when Terrelle Pryor was intercepted at the goal line, but he did a real nice job marching down the field, showing off better accuracy in addition to his usual speed and elusiveness. It wouldn't be surprising to see Pryor push Tarvaris Jackson for the top backup spot behind Russell Wilson, and he should have plenty of reps since Pete Carroll isn't likely to expose Wilson much due to the multiple absences along the offensive line. Starters Russell Okung, Max Unger and James Carpenter all missed the Denver game, but are back at practice, slowly working their way back from nagging injuries. San Diego could take advantage, but the Seahawks have lost only one home game -- preseason, regular season or playoffs -- in their last 22 outings, a string that began Aug. 11, 2012.

St. Louis: Rookie running back Tre Mason showed terrific burst and drew praise from Rams legend Marshall Faulk on the St. Louis broadcast. The Hall of Famer believes Mason is a grinder who can be a 25-30 carry guy in spite of his small stature. Even though though Zac Stacy looks like the starter and Mason opened with the fourth-string, he ended up with 51 yards on 15 carries despite seeing a few big runs called back against New Orleans. If he continues to excel, he'll be a weapon throughout the preseason in winnable games against Green Bay, Cleveland and Miami.

 

[CNOTES]

NFLX

Thursday, August 14

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Game of the Day: Jaguars at Bears
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 42.5)

Jacksonville's quarterback situation takes center stage Thursday night as the Jaguars resume their NFL preseason schedule with a game against the Bears in Chicago. The Jaguars have already laid out who will play when, with incumbent Chad Henne expected to take the snaps in the first half and rookie Blake Bortles playing the entire second half. Jacksonville had a multitude of errors on the offensive end in its exhibition opener, a 16-10 win over Tampa Bay.

The Bears have their own storylines playing out under center, though Jay Cutler's starting job is quite safe. The battle of the backups will be front and center against the Jaguars, with former high school phenom Jimmy Clausen expected to see plenty of time Thursday as he competes with Jordan Palmer for the No. 2 spot behind Cutler. The Bears were also victorious in their preseason opener, outslugging the Philadelphia Eagles 34-28 at Soldier Field.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened -4, but the line has since dipped a half-point. The O/U has risen a half-point to 42 1/2.

INJURY REPORT: Jaguars: LB Paul Posluszny (biceps), WR Cecil Shorts (hamstring), DT Roy Miller (shoulder) and CB Aaron Colvin (knee) are all expected to miss the game; Bears: WR Marquess Wilson (collarbone) and T Jordan Mills (foot) aren't expected to play; S Chris Conte (shoulder) is questionable.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (1-0): For as much attention is being paid to the battle between Henne and Bortles, the Jaguars are also paying close attention to the running game. Offseason acquisition and probable Week 1 starter Toby Gerhart will see his first in-game action in a Jacksonville uniform, and will get some sense of what he's dealing with on the offensive line. That cast of characters - featuring a host of inexperienced run-blockers - struggled against the Buccaneers to the point where they asked for - and were granted - an extra series to work out the kinks.

ABOUT THE BEARS (1-0): It isn't enough that Chicago has one of the top wide receiver tandems in the league in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey, but a new weapon may have emerged in last week's victory over Philadelphia. Tight end Zach Miller stole the show with a pair of touchdown catches versus the Eagles, and has looked sensational in practice leading up to the game against the Jaguars as he looks to provide Cutler with one more pass-catching weapon. Miller - not to be confused with Seattle tight end Zach Miller - was a sixth-round pick in 2009 who is now on his third NFL roster.

TRENDS:

* The Bears are 2-2-1 ATS in five preseason games under head coach Marc Trestman.
* The Jaguars have won two straight exhibition games SU and ATS after dropping their previous three.
* Chicago is 4-1 O/U in the preseason with Trestman at the helm.
* Jacksonville went 3-1 O/U in the 2013 exhibition season but was an Under in its 2014 opener.

CONSENSUS: 64.79 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the host Bears.


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NFLX

Thursday, August 14


Line moves in Jags-Bears matchup

The betting line for the first game of Week 2 of the NFL preseason has moved towards the Jacksonville Jaguars for their Thursday night matchup against the Chicago Bears.

The line moved a half-point towards the Jaguars Thursday morning and now sits at Jaguars +3.5 after opening at +4.0.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, August 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Jacksonville - 8:00 PM ET Jacksonville +3 500

Chicago - Over 42.5 500

 

[CNOTES]

Philadelphia Hype

August 14, 2014


Team to Watch - N.Y. Giants

Every year, there seems to be a team du jour that catches the fancy of the fans and media and is subject to intense overhype. Meet this year's candidate, the Philadelphia Eagles (2013: 10-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-8 O/U). Among other projections, none other than NBC's Cris "Aw Shucks" Collinsworth has suggested that Birds fans ought to be readying to welcome the Lombardi Trophy next February.

Collinsworth, however, is only one of many media voices who have been touting the Eagles since the end of last season. All of which not lost on the many listeners of venerable 610 WIP and 97.5 FM The Fanatic in Philadelphia, where Birds talk began to dominate the airwaves even before the Phillies would fall out of the NL East race.

Andy Reid? Who's he? Callers to WIP and The Fanatic would rarely mention the former coach after talking about nothing else for the preceding 13 years.

For us, however, we suggest that Eagles backers pump the brakes a little bit. We're not yet convinced that Philly is a Super Bowl contender. Call it our lengthy exposure to various false alarms over the decades. While we do believe the Eagles are definitely on their way up for 2nd-year HC Chip Kelly, we're simply suggesting some caution.

That's partially because there's a bit suspicion on our part about some of the Eagles' accomplishments last season, when they unexpectedly rallied down the stretch to win the NFC East. Which looked unlikely at midseason when Philly was sitting at a ho-hum 3-5. In retrospect, however, the Birds were helped by a variety of factors, among them collapses from division enemies Washington and the Giants.

Philly also caught unexpected breaks in a handful of games last season when facing backup QBs, as was the case in road tests against Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay and Tony Romo-less Dallas in the finale that decided the NFC East. The Birds were also getting whipped by the Lions when a blizzard hit the Linc last December and the Motown bunch suddenly forgot how to generate traction in the inclement conditions. Philly also beat Tampa Bay when the Bucs were still winless in the first half of the season, caught the Raiders when they were in the midst of collapse, and ran into Minnesota long after the season had slipped away from the Vikings. They were also fortunate to beat the Cardinals 24-21 in a late-season game at the Linc. Those sorts of schedule breaks are not likely to recur again this season.

Then, given the opportunity to host a playoff game, the Birds lost at home in the final seconds to the Saints. No shame in that effort, but an indicator that Philly still has some ground to make up if it wants to climb into the elite class in the NFC.

Of course, Kelly's progressive offense generated lots of headlines a year ago, and QB Nick Foles deservedly won accolades with his shock performance that included 27 TD passes and only 2 picks despite starting only 10 games. The Birds also led the NFL in rushing. But the defense was hardly championship caliber, ranking 29th overall, which could potentially undermine any fireworks provided by the Kelly offense this fall. The stop unit was also one of many in the league to get torched by the Broncos, who scored a franchise-record 52 points in a Denver blowout early last season.

The pass rush remains a question mark after managing just 37 sacks last season, and Bill Davis' stop unit could sorely use a dominant interior run-stuffer. The front three of Fletcher Cox,, Cedric Thornton, and Bennie Logan made progress last season, and Vinny Curry is in the process of emerging as a valued pass-rush specialist, but improvements must continue. Though Kelly and GM Howie Roseman believe the "D" has upgraded through free agency with the addition of ex-Saints FS Malcolm Jenkins, who could give the Birds their first lockdown safety since Brian Dawkins departed after the 2009 campaign. The Birds went defense with their first pick in the draft, tabbing Louisville OLB Marcus Smith, who could also provide pass-rush help. But this platoon still has a long way to go before it resembles a Super Bowl-caliber stop unit.

Perhaps the Birds can simply outscore everybody while the defense matures. The Kelly offense would figure to have a chance to do so with one of the best lines in the league and now adding ex-Saints RB Darren Sproles to spell LeSean McCoy, who gained 1607 YR last season. For those who believe the Kelly offense is simply pass-oriented, note those league-leading rush stats and the fact Philly ran the ball on more than 47% of its plays, the sixth-highest percentage in the league.

It's Foles, however, who needs to take the next step, which might seem a bit snarky on our part after the ex-Arizona Wildcat posted such gaudy numbers last season. Foles, however, was a bit too glad to take sacks, suffering 28 while throwing only 317 passes. The strategy of not forcing the ball worked out pretty well in 2013, as Foles finished with the third lowest interception percentage in league history. Offseason and summer camp work, however, has stressed a quicker release and getting the ball out of his hand earlier, avoiding so many sacks. "This year, I really want to not take as many sacks, get rid of the ball faster, dump it down to the back earlier," Foles recently said. "That's something I'll continue to work on the next few weeks (of training camp and the preseason)."

With Michael Vick finally out of the picture, Kelly and Roseman have brought in ex-Jet Mark Sanchez to battle another former USC Trojan, Matt Barkley, for backup duties. Safe to say that keeping Foles healthy will be crucial if the Birds want to get back to the playoffs this fall.

Roseman and Kelly also raised a few eyebrows when they decided to show WR DeSean Jackson the door in the offseason, and we applaud the braintrust for apparently responding to Jackson's alleged ties to gangs back in his native L.A. area. It was a bold move, because Jackson led the team with 82 receptions last season and was their main deep threat. Jackson's release is a calculated risk, because Kelly believes Jeremy Maclin, who missed last season with a torn ACL, can fill Jackson's downfield role. Rookie WRs Jordan Matthews (Vanderbilt) and Josh Huff (Oregon) were the second and third-round draft picks, respectively, and will be expected to make immediate contributions.

The offense could also use PK Alex Henery converting with a bit more consistency from long distance; while near automatic inside of 40 yards, Henery was only 5 for 11 from 45 yards or beyond last season.

The Eagles should be good and are are a good bet to get back to the playoffs. But we are much more skeptical of all of the Super Bowl talk that remains nonstop in the Delaware Valley, or at least as far as the WIP and 97.5 FM signals can travel.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC South Notebook

August 14, 2014

Carolina Panthers

2013 Record: 12-4
Postseason: L 10-23 vs. San Francisco in Divisional round
Off YPG: 319 (25th)
Def YPG: 301 (2nd)
Off PPG: 22.9 (18th)
Def PPG: 15.1 (2nd)

2014 Total Win Analysis - LVH Total Win Opening Line: 8

The Panthers were the surprise team in the NFL last year. After starting 1-3, Carolina reeled off 11 wins over the final 12 games to win the division and earn a first round bye in the playoffs. After some personnel losses and a much more difficult schedule, Carolina is expected to take a bit of a step back this season. They still possess one of the top defenses in the NFL, but the offense didn't do a whole bunch to improve on its below-average 2013. Cam Newton is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, but the Panthers let his two top targets walk in free agency leaving Newton with little to work with in the passing game. The schedule will not be easy. In addition to playing six difficult games against division foes, Carolina plays at Baltimore, vs. Chicago, @Cincinnati, @Green Bay, vs. Seattle, and at Philadelphia. With what appears to be a below-average offense against a very difficult sched, expect Carolina to take a step back this season. We recommend a play on the UNDER 8 wins.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 9-6-1, 5-11
-- Carolina ranks as the 6th best road team since 2003, accumulating a 53-39-2 (57.6%) record over that span.
-- They also rank 6th in the NFL as a favorite since 2008 with a 24-18-2 ATS record (57.1%).
-- Since 2011, the Panthers are 9-4-1 ATS (69.2%), the 2nd best percentage in the NFL over that span.
-- The Panthers had only five of 17 games finished 'OVER' the total last year, just 29.4%, by far the lowest in the NFL.
-- Carolina has had the most in-division success with New Orleans. The Panthers are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. They are also just 11-2 ATS in the last 13 road games at NO.
-- The Panthers are 3-1 SU & ATS in the last two years against the Falcons. They are also 4-2 ATS in the last six road games at Atlanta.
-- Carolina won & covered both meetings with Tampa Bay last year by an average of 19.5 PPG. The Panthers are 7-4 ATS overall in the last 11 meetings.

Player & Team Notes

-- Newton's passing stats didn't wow anybody last year. He managed games well, throwing for 3,379 yards (61.7%), 24 TD, and 13 INT. He also tallied 585 rush yards and 6 TD on 111 carries.
-- Newton will have to get acclimated to a whole new WR corps as the top three WR from 2013 - Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, and Ted Ginn Jr. - are gone. The Panthers picked up Jason Avant and Jerricho Cotchery in free agency and added 6'5" Kelvin Benjamin in the 1st round of the draft.
-- Another area for concern is the offensive line. Newton was sacked 43 times (6th highest in the NFL) last year and now his LT and LG both retired in the offseason. -- Carolina is a bit strapped against the salary cap, so they didn't make any big name additions, but they were able to retain DE Greg Hardy on a franchise tag. Hardy and fellow DE Charles Johnson helped Carolina lead the NFL in sacks in 2013.

New Orleans Saints

2013 Record: 11-5
Postseason: L 15-23 at Seattle in the Divisional round, 15-23
Off YPG: 399 (4th)
Def YPG: 306 (4th)
Off PPG: 25.9 (10th)
Def PPG: 19 (4th)

2014 Total Win Analysis - LVH Total Win Opening Line: 9.5

The Saints bounced back with 11 wins after their 7-9 finish in the "bountygate" 2012. New Orleans was finally able to pack a punch defensively after bringing in Rob Ryan. They finished 4th in both yards allowed and points allowed; 12 of 16 regular season opponents were held to 20 points or fewer. If that defense can hold steady behind this Drew Brees-led offense, this team will win a lot of games; which is why we're high on this team and recommend a play on the OVER. The schedule opens up very favorably for this team (@ATL, @CLE, vs. MIN, @DAL, vs. TB, @DET) and anything less than a 5-1 start would be surprising. After that they get their four toughest non-division games of the season - Green Bay, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Baltimore - all in the comforts of the Superdome. Atlanta, Carolina, and Tampa Bay will all be competitive this season, but we don't see any of them challenging the Saints for the top spot in the South. Expect at least 10 wins and take the OVER.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 8-8, 6-10
-- New Orleans is 3rd in the NFL in overall spread record, tallying a 31-21 ATS mark (59.6% cover rate).
-- It's a remarkable advantage that the Saints have when playing at home. Since 2010 they are 24-9 ATS (72.7%). That's by far the best record in the NFL over that span. -- It's also quite remarkable the disadvantage they have when playing on the road. Since 2010 they are just 14-22 ATS (38.9%) in away games - 2nd worst in the NFL.
-- They've been getting overvalued on the road over the past few seasons. They are just 7-14 ATS (33.3%) as a road favorite since 2010. The 21 games as a road favorite is 3rd to only Green Bay (24 games) and New England (23 games).
-- The Saints are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with Tampa Bay. The 'UNDER' is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
-- New Orleans is 13-3 SU in the last 16 meetings with Atlanta. They are 5-2 ATS in the last seven overall and five of those games have remained 'UNDER' the total.
-- New Orleans has had the most in-division trouble with Carolina. The Saints are just 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings. They are also just 2-11 ATS in the last 13 home games against the Panthers.

Player & Team Notes

-- Drew Brees surpassed 5,000 yards for the fourth time in his career. No other player has done it more than once. He's been the model of consistency as he's averaged 38 TD and 15 INT per season over the past six years.
-- The Saints let one of Brees' favorite targets walk in the offseason as RB Darren Sproles was traded to the Eagles. Sproles caught 86, 75, and 71 passes in his three seasons in New Orleans.
-- New Orleans is hoping top draft pick WR Brandin Cooks can fill in for Sproles. The speedster from Oregon State caught 128 passes for 1,730 yards and 16 TD for the Beavers last season. He's drawn rave reviews from Saints camp so far and expect to see him often on Sundays.
-- The defense that performed so well last season lost a number of veteran starters. Roman Harper, Jabari Greer, Will Smith, Jonathan Vilma, and Malcolm Jenkins were all let go in the offseason.
-- New Orleans brought in All-Pro safety Jairus Byrd and future Hall of Fame CB Champ Bailey to team with Kenny Vaccaro and Keenan Lewis, forming one of the better secondaries in the NFL.
-- Among the Saints' defensive accomplishments last year: 49 sacks (4th), 16 forced fumbles (11th), 194 pass YPG allowed (2nd), 20 pass TD allowed (6th).

Atlanta Falcons

2013 Record: 4-12
Postseason: No Playoffs
Off YPG: 343 (14th)
Def YPG: 379 (27th)
Off PPG: 22.1 (20th)
Def PPG: 27.7 (27th)

2014 Total Win Analysis - LVH Total Win Opening Line: 8

After three straight playoff trips, including a narrow loss to San Francisco in the 2012 NFC Championship game, the wheels fell off for the Falcons last year as the team limped to a 4-12 finish. Injuries played a big part in the downfall, but so did a porous defense and a terrible offensive line. The Falcons seemed to make the necessary moves to improve their areas of need, and there's still a lot of talent on this roster -- which is why we're leaning slightly towards the OVER on this total. Looking at the schedule - which is ranked the 11th toughest - the Falcons won't have an easy time in the division as Carolina and New Orleans both made the playoffs last year and Tampa Bay is a trendy wild card pick this season. Outside of the division is where Atlanta catches some breaks. They have manageable road games at Minnesota and NY Giants while hosting Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Arizona, and Pittsburgh. The two toughest non-division games happen on October 19 (@Baltimore) and December 8 (@Green Bay). There's ample talent on the roster that, if healthy, can contend for the NFC South crown. Expect a +.500 season and take the OVER.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 7-9, 9-7
-- Since Matt Ryan arrived in 2008, the Falcons have been one of the more dependable favorites in the NFL. Atlanta is 34-25-2 ATS (57.6%) over that span - behind only Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, and Seattle.
-- They are also a favorable 12-7-1 ATS (63.2%) as an away favorite since 2008, the sixth best percentage in the NFL.
-- Over the last decade they rank 5th in non-conference games with a 27-17 ATS record (61.4%) - the best mark among NFC teams.
-- Since 2009, Atlanta has been the 5th best 'UNDER' bet when playing at home, tallying a 57.1% rate of 'UNDER.'
-- Atlanta is just 3-13 SU in the last 16 meetings with New Orleans. They are just 2-5 ATS in the last seven overall and five of those games have remained 'UNDER' the total.
-- The Falcons are just 1-3 SU & ATS in the last two years against the Carolina Panthers. They are also just 2-4 ATS in the last six road games at Carolina.
-- They are a positive 8-6 SU in the last 14 meetings with Tampa Bay, but just 4-10 ATS in those 14 games.

Player & Team Notes

-- QB Matt Ryan was sacked 44 times last seasons, the 3rd highest mark in the NFL. That constant pressure from opponents led to hurried throws and a career high 17 INT's. Still, he had a respectable 4,515 yards and 67.4% completions.
-- Ryan will also get one of the top WR's in the NFL back in the fold as a healthy Julio Jones returns to the lineup after only playing five games last season. Jones had 41 receptions for 580 yards through just five games in 2013 - which would translate to 125+ receptions and 1,700+ yards through a full season.
-- With a revamped O-Line and a healthy Julio Jones, Ryan will absolutely benefit. But perhaps more importantly is a run game that was non-existent a year ago (77.9 rush YPG on 3.9 YPC) will finally see some daylight.
-- The Falcons offensive line, which was so bad in 2013, appears to be a unit of strength now. They brought in RG Jon Asamoah from Kansas City and drafted LT Jake Matthews (who will start at RT) with the 4th overall pick in the draft. That'll be a huge upgrade for both the protection of Ryan and opening holes in the running game. -- Outside linebacker Sean Weatherspoon will miss the entire 2014 season with an achilles injury. He missed 10 games last year with injury.
-- The Falcons were absolutely abysmal on defense last year. They allowed 31 TD passes and only recorded 10 INT's last year. They couldn't get to the quarterback (29th with just 32 sacks) and also ranked 31st against the run (135.8 rush YPG allowed).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2013 Record: 4-12
Postseason: No Playoffs
Off YPG: 277 (32nd)
Def YPG: 348 (17th)
Off PPG: 18 (30th)
Def PPG: 24.3 (21st)

2014 Total Win Analysis - LVH Total Win Opening Line: 7

It was a nightmare season in 2013 for the Bucs. Tampa lost its first eight games, released once-considered franchise QB Josh Freeman, and concluded with the firing of head coach Greg Schiano. Despite everything that went wrong, there's still quiet optimism heading into the 2014 season. Lovie Smith has brought a new attitude and with a young & talented roster, this team is on the way up. Still, winning more than seven games in this division will be a tall task for the Bucs and we're leaning slightly towards the UNDER. We don't know Josh McCown will perform as the unquestioned starter after playing very well in relief duty for Jay Cutler in Chicago last year. The offense as a whole looks better on paper, but this unit still has a ways to go after ranking dead last in yards per game and 30th in points per game in 2013. A tough first five weeks of the schedule will give us a good idea of where this team is headed. They host Carolina and St. Louis in weeks 1 & 2, then have three straight road games at Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans. An 0-5 or 1-4 start is certainly plausible and then it'll be extremely difficult to exceed seven wins if that's the case. Especially with matchups at Chicago, vs. Cincinnati, at Detroit, at Carolina, vs. Green Bay and vs. New Orleans to end the season. Take the UNDER.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 6-10, 8-8
-- TB is just 13-26-1 ATS (33.3%) at home since 2009, the 2nd worst home record in the NFL over that span.
-- On the flip side, they have the 3rd best record in the NFL on the road since 2009, accumulating a 23-16-1 ATS record (59%).
-- They are also 22-14 ATS (61.1%) as a road underdog since 2008, the third best percentage in the NFL.
-- Since 2003, the Bucs are just 11-22-2 ATS (33.3%) as a home underdog, the third worst spread record in the NFL over that span.
-- Tampa Bay was 0-2 SU & ATS last year against Carolina, losing by an average of 19.5 PPG. The Bucs are just 4-7 ATS overall in the last 11 meetings.
-- TB is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings with New Orleans. The 'UNDER' is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
-- The Bucs are a 10-4 ATS in the last 14 games against the Atlanta Falcons.

Player & Team Notes

-- Delegated QB Mike Glennon to 2nd string after a decent rookie season (19 TD, 9 INT) in favor of free agent Josh McCown. McCown threw for 1,337 yards, 13 TD, and just 1 INT in eight games with Chicago last year.
-- TB will get a healthy RB Doug Martin back after he missed most of last season with a knee injury. Martin rushed for 1,454 yards (4.6 YPC) and 11 TD as a rookie and had 456 yards through six games last year before the injury. Martin will be a welcome addition considering TB rushed for just 5 TD in 10 games without him.
-- McCown should have no shortage of big targets in the passing game. After drafting Mike Evans in the 1st round, the Bucs will feature a very intimidating receiving corps. Evans, Vincent Jackson, and rookie TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins are all 6'5". Fellow receivers Chris Owusu and Louis Murphy are 6'2".
-- Released arguably the top CB in the league, Darrelle Revis. Revis wasn't a natural fit in the defense Greg Schiano was running and Lovie Smith apparently felt he wasn't a great fit in his defense either. Replaced him with Pro Bowl CB Alterraun Verner from Tennessee.
-- This defensive line should resemble something close to what Lovie Smith had in Chicago when they had a dominant defense. They will rotate about 6-7 players regularly, led by All-Pro talent DT Gerald McCoy and DE Michael Johnson.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC North Notebook

August 14, 2014

Chicago Bears

2013 record: 8-8
Postseason: No playoffs
Off YPG: 382 (8th)
Def YPG: 395 (30th)
Off PPG: 27.8 (2nd)
Def PPG: 29.9 (30th)

2014 Total Win Analysis - LVH Total Win Opening Line: 8

Chicago’s total win line opened at 8 and we took the OVER. The Bears won 8 games last year with arguably the worst defense in the NFL. We’ve been hearing from Chicago camp that they expect their stop unit to be much improved this season. The offense was among the more potent in the NFL scoring nearly 28 points (2nd in the NFL) under first year head coach Marc Trestman who came in as an offensive guru. We expect the offense to again be very good and possibly better with a year of Trestman’s system under their belt. QB Jay Cutler missed 5 games due to injury last season yet they still won 8 games. If we get a full season, or close to it, from Cutler, the Bears should improve offensively. They do have a fairly tough start to the season with 5 of their first 8 games away from home. However, after their bye week in early November, they close with 5 of their final 8 games at home. All of their final 5 home games in November & December are against warm weather teams or dome teams (New Orleans, Dallas, Detroit, Minnesota, & Tampa). That should favor Chicago as the weather could be rough that late in the season. Six of Chicago’s eight losses last season were one score finals (8-points or less) so they were in almost all of their setbacks. We look for their defense to improve greatly which pushes Chicago OVER 8 wins.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 4-11-1, 12-4
-- Chicago has THE WORST spread record in the NFL since 2007 coming in at 48-62-4 ATS (43.6%).
-- Bears are just 7-19-1 ATS their last 27 games dating back to early 2012.
-- Since November 22nd of 2010, the Bears have gone OVER the total 36 times and UNDER the total just 20 times.
-- Chicago went OVER the total in 12 of their 16 games last year and they averaged almost 58 total points per game.
-- Since the start of the 2008 season, Chicago & Green Bay have gone UNDER the total 11 times and OVER just twice.
-- The Bears have had 23 Overs & 7 Unders the last 30 times they’ve been tabbed a favorite.

Player & Team Notes

-- Chicago was dead last in the NFL last year allowing their opponents to gain 6.2 yards per play. That was after finishing 3rd in the NFL in that category in 2012 allowing only 4.9 YPP.
-- The Bears lost DE Julius Peppers (118.5 career sacks) to the Packers but added former Viking DE Jared Allen (128.5 career sacks).
-- In 2013, Chicago led the NFL in defensive touchdowns per game for the third straight season. Last year they averaged 0.4 defensive TD’s per game tying them with KC for the best mark in the league.
-- The Bears have more players over the age of 30 (21 of them) than any other team in football.
-- Chicago’s offensive line did a MUCH better job of protecting Jay Cutler last season. After finishing near the bottom of the NFL in sacks allowed per game the previous 3 seasons (2.8, 3.1, and 3.4), the Bears allowed only 1.9 sacks per game last year which was 3rd fewest in the NFL.

Minnesota Vikings

2013 Record: 4-12
Postseason: No playoffs
Off YPG: 344 (13th)
Def YPG: 399 (31st)
Off PPG: 24.4 (15th)
Def PPG: 30 (32nd)

2014 Total Win Analysis - LVH Total Win Opening Line: 6

Minnesota should be better than its 4-12 campaign a year ago. A new coaching staff and a rookie 1st round quarterback signal a new start in Minneapolis. However, the talent and depth of the roster isn't up to par with the rest of the division and a brutal schedule means that it will likely be another rebuilding year for the Vikings. We are leaning towards the UNDER here. With five 1st round picks in the last two years combined, there's a lot of young talent on this team, but there's still problem areas (quarterbacks, secondary, linebackers) and lack of depth that will hurt this team in 2014. Minnesota's first six games of 2014 are: @St. Louis, vs. New England, @New Orleans, vs. Atlanta, @Green Bay, and vs. Detroit. The Vikings would be extremely lucky to come away with a 2-4 record through that slate. The rest of the schedule is more forgiving, but still consists of difficult games @Buffalo, @Tampa Bay, @Chicago, vs. Green Bay, vs. Carolina, and @Detroit. The way it stands right now, it would take a near miraculous season for the Vikings to come away with seven wins. Take the UNDER.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 9-7, 12-4
-- Among the worst in the NFL on the road over the past 10 years. The Vikes are just 39-50-3 ATS (43.8%) in away games since 2003 - 30th in the NFL.
-- Ranked dead last in the NFL with just 3-11-1 ATS (21.4%) record as a favorite since 2011.
-- Conversely, the Vikes are 20-12-2 ATS (62.5%) as an underdog since 2011, the 3rd best mark in the NFL - including an 8-2-1 ATS record as a home underdog.
-- Minnesota was a consistently strong 'OVER' team in 2013 with 12 of 16 games finishing 'OVER' the total.
-- Minnesota is 11-4-3 ATS in the last 18 games against the Detroit Lions. Eight of the last 12 meetings have finished 'OVER' the total.
-- Just 4-10-1 SU & 5-10 ATS in the last 15 vs. the Green Bay Packers. That includes a 2-6 ATS record at Lambeau Field. Also, 10 of the last 13 matchups have finished 'OVER' the total.
-- The Vikes are just 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS in the last 11 road games at Chicago, getting outscored by an average of 10.9 PPG in those 11 meetings.

Player & Team Notes

-- Mike Zimmer was hired as the new head coach after spending the previous six as Cincinnati's defensive coordinator. Zimmer brings a much-needed defensive prowess to Minnesota after leading the Bengals to the 3rd, 6th, and 7th ranked overall defense over the past three seasons (never ranked below 15th in six years as Bengals DC).
-- The Vikings need Zimmer to work wonders after ranking 31st in total defense, 31st against the pass, and 32nd in points allowed. Eight of 16 opponents exceeded 30 points and only one was held below 20 points.
-- Teddy Bridgewater was taken with the 32nd pick of the NFL Draft, but he'll likely start the season on the 2nd unit behind Matt Cassell. Cassel completed 60.2% with 11 TD and 9 INT in nine games last year. If Cassell falters through the first five weeks or so, expect to see Bridgewater take over.
-- Let veterans Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, Chris Cook, Erin Henderson, Letroy Guion, and Desmond Bishop walk in free agency; further signaling the rebuild in Minnesota.
-- Brought in Linval Joseph to the defensive line to play alongside promising 2nd year DT Shariff Floyd. Brian Robison, Everson Griffin, and rookie Anthony Barr will be counted on to replace the production of departed DE Jared Allen, who accounted for 85.5 sacks in six years as a Viking.
-- There will be no more Metrodome home games. The Vikings will play their home games at University of Minnesota's TCF Bank Stadium in 2014 & 2015 during the construction of new stadium.
-- WR Cordarrelle Patterson ranked 2nd in all-purpose yards as a rookie behind only LeSean McCoy. He will be counted on even more this year as they integrate him into the passing attack after just 469 receiving yards.

Detroit Lions

2013 Record: 7-9
Postseason: No Playoffs
Off YPG: 392 (6th)
Def YPG: 347 (16th)
Off PPG: 24.7 (13th)
Def PPG: 23.5 (15th)

2014 Total Win Analysis - LVH Total Win Opening Line: 8

The NFC North appears to be a three-team race, the favorite being Green Bay with Detroit and Chicago not far behind. All three teams could finish above .500 which is why we are leaning slightly towards the OVER here. Detroit brought in a new head coach, Jim Caldwell, who worked with Peyton Manning for the better part of the last 10 years and with Joe Flacco last year. He's expected to aid QB Matthew Stafford and bring some much needed consistency to this offense, which could be the best in the division. They open the season on MNF at home against the New York Giants and a win could propel them through the next two weeks with tough games at Carolina and vs. Green Bay. The schedule is kind to the Lions after that despite a few two-week stretches (vs. New Orleans & @Atlanta in October, @Arizona & @New England in November, and @Chicago & @Green Bay in December). If the Lions can go at least 3-3 in those six games, they'll position themselves nicely for a playoff berth and a +.500 record.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 6-10, 8-8
-- Detroit is dead last in the NFL with a 25-36-4 ATS record (41%) in road games since 2006.
-- The Lions are 22-33-3 ATS (40%) as a favorite since 2004 - ranked 30th in the NFL over that span.
-- The Lions have been a road favorite just 18 times since 2003. They are just 5-11-2 ATS (31.2%) in those games, ranked 31st in the NFL over that span.
-- They are 3rd worst in the NFL against division foes since 2005, covering just 41.2% of the time (21-30-3 ATS).
-- Detroit is an abysmal 2-14 SU & 4-12 ATS in the last 16 games against the Green Bay Packers. They haven't won back-to-back games against GB since 98-99 (won the last meeting on Thanksgiving last year).
-- Just 6-23 SU & 11-14-4 ATS against Minnesota since the calendar turned to 2000. That includes just 4-11-3 ATS mark over the last 18 games.
-- The one team in the division that Detroit has had ATS success against is the Chicago Bears. Detroit is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 and 7-1 ATS in the last 8 against Chicago.

Player & Team Notes

-- This team will look a lot different this year after cutting notable veterans Louis Delmas, Nate Burleson, Willie Young, Jason Fox, and David Akers among others.
-- Brought in Golden Tate from Seattle (64 rec, 898 yards, 5 TD in 2013) and drafted TE Eric Ebron in the 1st round to help stretch the field and take some pressure off of Calvin Johnson, who dominated despite not having much help in the receiving corps (84 rec, 1,492 yards, and 12 TD in 2013).
-- Detroit had just 33 sacks in 2013, ranking 28th in the NFL. With Suh, Fairley, and Ansah on the defensive line, the Lions expect much more from this pass-rush.
-- Matthew Stafford ranked 3rd in the NFL with 4,650 passing yards, which is good; but the 58.5% completion percentage and the 19 interceptions are a major cause for concern. With new weapons in the passing attack and a more conservative offensive approach under Jim Caldwell, expect Stafford's numbers to improve.
-- The defensive and offensive statistical ratings suggest that Detroit should've been a playoff team last year, but the lack of discipline played a role in their demise. In addition to Stafford's 19 INT's, the Lions coughed up 15 fumbles in 2013, leading to a -12 turnover differential - ranking 30th in the NFL.

Green Bay Packers

2013 Record:8-7-1
Postseason: L 23-26 vs. San Francisco in Wild Card Round
Off YPG: 400 (3rd)
Def YPG: 372 (25th)
Off PPG: 26.1 (8th)
Def PPG: 26.8 (24th)

2014 Total Win Analysis - LVH Total Win Opening Line: 10

The Packers played seven games without star QB Aaron Rodgers in 2013 and still got to eight wins, so 10 wins in 2014 with a healthy Rodgers should be a shoo in, right? Well, GB benefited from a weak slate in 2013. Division foes Chicago, Minnesota, and Detroit all had down year and they caught the weak NFC East and AFC North. Green Bay faces a difficult schedule in 2014, but there are still a few breaks that make it manageable. Three of the first four weeks have them traveling to Seattle, Detroit, and Chicago. And they have a road trip to New Orleans in week eight to round out the first half of the season. The final eight games are a bit kinder. They host Chicago, Philadelphia, New England, Atlanta, and Detroit and have reasonable road games at Minnesota, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay among their final eight games. Despite catching few breaks on the schedule, the NFC North is one of the better divisions in football and there are simply too many heavyweights on the slate to envision this team winning more than 10 games.

Betting Notes

-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 7-9, 9-7
-- Green Bay is the best spread team overall since 2007 with a 73-47-3 ATS record, good for 60.8% covers.
-- They are 2nd in the NFL with 20-13-1 (60.6%) record as an underdog since 2007
-- GB is 1st in the NFL against AFC squads since 2007 with a 20-9 ATS mark (69%). This year they get the AFC East.
-- The Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field has been one of the best home field advantages in the NFL as GB is 4th best at home since 2009 with a 26-15-2 ATS record (63.4%).
-- They rank 2nd in the NFL 42-26-1 ATS as a favorite since 2009 (61.8%).
-- The Packers are 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS in the last 16 games against the Detroit Lions. They haven't lost back-to-back games to the Lions since 98-99 (lost the last meeting on Thanksgiving last year).
-- GB is 7-1-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings with Minnesota. The 'OVER' is 10-3 in the last 13 matchups with the Vikings, averaging 52.4 total PPG over those games.
-- 10-3 SU & ATS in the last 13 against Chicago. The 'UNDER' is 11-2 in those 13 games, averaging just 39 PPG in those games.

Player & Team Notes

-- Acquired DE/OLB Julius Peppers in free agency via Chicago. Peppers has 29.5 sacks over the past three seasons and will play opposite of Clay Matthews - giving GB two of the most feared pass-rushers in the NFL.
-- Let WR James Jones walk in free agency. Jones has had over 600 receiving yards in four straight seasons and has 29 TD over that span. Drafted three receivers (Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederris, and Jeff Janis) to fill the void.
-- RB Eddie Lacy gives this offense a power-running attack that they haven't seen since the Ahman Green days. Lacy ranked 8th in the NFL with 1,178 yards (4.1 YPC) and his 11 TD ranked 3rd.
-- Green Bay's pass defense ranked 27th in TD allowed and 26th in INT. Stronger play from the safety positions (got rid of abysmal MD Jennings and drafted Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in the 1st round) as well as a revamped pass rush should help GB improve.
-- They also ranked 25th against the run, allowing 4.6 YPC on 125 YPG. The 16 rushing touchdowns allowed were ranked 25th in the NFL as well.

 

[CNOTES]

NFLX
Dunkel

Week 2


FRIDAY, AUGUST 15

Game 403-404: Philadelphia at New England (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 119.426; New England 124.915
Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Over

Game 405-406: Tennessee at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 122.570; New Orleans 124.246
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2); Over

Game 407-408: Detroit at Oakland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 123.242; Oakland 119.979
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2 1/2); Under

Game 409-410: San Diego at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 123.140; Seattle 131.958
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 9; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-5 1/2); Under


SATURDAY, AUGUST 16

Game 411-412: Green Bay at St. Louis (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 117.284; St. Louis 121.856
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: NY Giants at Indianapolis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 120.028; Indianapolis 119.488
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Over

Game 415-416: Baltimore at Dallas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 126.112; Dallas 119.132
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 37
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1); Under

Game 417-418: NY Jets at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 118.838; Cincinnati 125.989
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2); Over

Game 419-420: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 117.315; Pittsburgh 121.786
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Miami at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.514; Tampa Bay 117.249
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2); Under

Game 423-424: Atlanta at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.476; Houston 119.042
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Arizona at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 120.519; Minnesota 124.930
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over


SUNDAY, AUGUST 17

Game 427-428: Denver at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.393; San Francisco 125.031
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

Game 429-430: Kansas City at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.384; Carolina 122.008
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over


MONDAY, AUGUST 18

Game 431-432: Cleveland at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.868; Washington 123.730
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NFLX

Friday, August 15


Preseason games continue to go under

The Chicago Bears needed a fourth quarter comeback to defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-19 Thursday night, meaning yet another NFL preseason game has gone under the total.

The under has hit almost 78 percent of the time this preseason with teams now 4-14 over/under in 18 games.

There are four more preseason games on tap Friday with totals ranging from 38.5 to 46.5.

 

[CNOTES]

NFLX

Friday, August 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday's NFL Week 2 preseason betting primer
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The first game of the second week of NFL preseason is in the books, but there's plenty of action remaining as the league reaches the halfway point of its exhibition schedule. Here's a look at betting notes for Friday's preseason action:

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-3, 46.5)

* With Riley Cooper (foot) and Jeremy Maclin (hamsttring) both expected to be out Friday night, expect to see a cast of unknowns line up for the Eagles at wide receiver - a group that includes Josh Huff, Arrelious Benn and Jordan Matthews. Quarterback Nick Foles will be hoping for a better performance from his offensive line, which struggled in the opener against Chicago.

* Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo sat out his third consecutive practice Thursday and is expected to miss Friday's game as he continues his recovery from a season-ending pectoral muscle tear. Veteran quarterback Tom Brady will make his preseason debut against Philadelphia after sitting out the exhibition opener, though it isn't immediately clear how long the 37-year-old will play.


Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3, 43)

* The Titans want to see a lot more of starting quarterback Jake Locker, who has looked good in practice but was on the field for just 12 plays in the opener and wound up attempting only two passes. With three of Tennessee's five wide receiver spots (Kendall Wright, Nate Washington, Justin Hunter) spoken for, Friday will see Derek Hagan, Marc Mariani, Michael Preston and Brian Robiskie battle for the final slots.

* The Saints will be without franchise quarterback Drew Brees, who continues to nurse an oblique injury and is aiming to return in time for New Orleans' third preseason game. Brees isn't the only key starter expected to be on the sidelines Friday night; he'll be joined by cornerback Champ Bailey, receiver Kenny Stills and linebackers David Hawthorne and Victor Butler.


San Diego Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 38.5)

* The Chargers are expected to roll with rookie offensive lineman Chris Watt on Friday against a defensively elite Seahawks team playing in front of a raucous home crowd. Fellow first-year player Jason Verrett, still recovering from surgery in March to repair a posterior labral tear, will not be in the lineup but the first-round defensive back is expected to see action before the regular-season opener.

* Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is expected to give both candidates for the backup quarterback job - Tavaris Jackson and Terrelle Pryor - an equal number of snaps against the Chargers. Seattle came into its preseason opener having outscored opponents 125-37 in the second half of its last eight exhibition games, but was outscored 14-6 in the second half against Denver last week.


Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2.5, 39.5)

* Don't expect to see wide receiver Calvin Johnson much, if at all; head coach Jim Caldwell hasn't said whether Megatron will suit up Friday, but he's still recovering from off-season knee and finger surgeries and may want one more week to recover. Defensive tackle Nick Fairley has fallen down the depth chart due to uninspired play and poor work habits, and will give way to new starter C.J. Mosley this week.

* Lost in an endless flurry of scuffles and squabbles during its joint practice with the Dallas Cowboys was the fact that the Oakland offense looked good in the days leading up to Friday's encounter with Detroit. Former practice squad tight end Brian Leonhardt has been taking first-team reps with Mychal Rivera, and may be pressed into significant duty Friday due to a spate of injuries at the position.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Preseason Tips

August 15, 2014

Preseason Recap: The home teams have won 15 of the first 17 preseason contests, including Chicago's comeback victory over Jacksonville on Thursday. Home clubs own a 12-4-1 ATS record, as the Bears failed to cover against the Jaguars last night, while the only road teams to win outright have been the Saints (at Rams) and Bills (at Panthers). The 'under' has cashed in 14 of 18 exhibition games (including the Hall of Fame game), including each of the last five contests since last Saturday.

Eagles at Patriots (-2 ½, 47) - 7:30 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records: NE (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), PHI (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Patriots (+3 ½) beat Eagles, 24-6 in 2013

Week 1 Review: New England was dominated by Washington, 23-6 as Tom Brady rested in the preseason opener for the Pats. The loss snapped a five-game winning streak for New England in exhibition openers. The Eagles fell to the Bears as one-point road favorites, 34-28, as Chicago scored the final 17 points of the contest.

Expert Handicapper Analysis: Joe Nelson - Chip Kelly is now 2-3 S/U and ATS in the preseason and this will be a second straight road game which could take a toll at this stage in the season. New England is 6-3 S/U in the last nine home games in the preseason, averaging 27 points per game. Given Belichick’s respect for Kelly this is a game his team will take seriously and the Patriots should have opportunities early and late in this matchup.

Titans at Saints (-3, 43) - 8:00 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records: TEN (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), NO (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Titans (+4 ½) beat Saints, 10-6 in 2012

Week 1 Review: The Saints outlasted the Rams as short road underdogs, 26-24, as New Orleans was just one of two teams (Buffalo) to win on the highway last week. The Titans held off the Packers in a driving rainstorm in Nashville, 20-16 as -2 ½-point favorites.

Expert Handicapper Analysis: Doc's Sports - Never like to lay this many points in the exhibition season, but New Orleans played to win in game 1 and I see that trend continuing in Week 2. Hard to take away much from the Tennessee–Green Bay game since weather played a role, but playing in the Superdome is always a factor that greatly favors the home team. Drew Brees did not play in Week 1 and the Saints still managed to complete 27 of their 40 passes. New Orleans wins this game by double digits.

Lions at Raiders (-2 ½, 39) - 10:00 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records: DET (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), OAK (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Raiders (+3) beat Lions, 31-20 in 2012

Week 1 Review: The Raiders fell to the Vikings as three-point underdogs, 10-6, as Oakland scored a late touchdown and failed on a two-point conversion in the final minutes. The Lions rallied past the Browns, 13-12 to cash as 1 ½-point home underdogs, as the lone touchdown came in the contest came by Detroit with 1:05 remaining.

Expert Handicapper Analysis: The Gold Sheet - The Oakland coaching staff is fighting for its job this season and was very upset with the team's poor performance last week at Minnesota, as evidenced by the team's several fights this week while scrimmaging with Dallas. Detroit is not very deep on defense, especially in the secondary, which should yield opportunities to new Oakland No. 1 QB Matt Schaub, impressive rookie Derek Carr, and young veteran Matt McGloiin. New Detroit coach Jim Caldwell is from the Tony Dungy "low key" school of thought in preseason, with Caldwell going only 4-8 vs. the spread while head coach at Indianapolis and only 1-5 vs. the spread as a visitor.

Chargers at Seahawks (-6, 38 ½) - 10:00 PM EST

2014 Preseason Records: SD (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), SEA (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Seahawks (-3) beat Chargers, 31-10 in 2013

Week 1 Review: Seattle's eight-game preseason winning streak came to an end in a Super Bowl rematch with Denver, as the Seahawks lost 21-16 as one-point road favorites. The Chargers cruised past the beat-up Cowboys, 27-7 as 3 ½-point home favorites, snapping a two-game home losing streak in the preseason.

Expert Handicapper Analysis: James Manos - It's obvious that Seahawks HC Pete Carroll takes the preseason seriously as he's gone 21-13 SU and 24-10 ATS in his NFL preseason coaching appearances, including going 8-0 SU combined in 2012 and 2013. The Seahawks did lose their preseason opener this season at Denver, but that was a huge revenge setup for the Broncos, and anyone who really watched the game could see that both coaches were making an effort to WIN. This will be Seattle's first home game since winning the Super Bowl and they should be welcomed by the loud and racous crowd that give the Seahawks the best homefield advantage in the NFL. The Chargers enter off demolishing Dallas and San Diego accomplished all it's goals in that game.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Friday, August 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 7:30 PM ET Philadelphia +1 500

New England - Under 46.5 500


Tennessee - 8:00 PM ET Tennessee +3 500

New Orleans - Under 43.5 500


Detroit - 10:00 PM ET Oakland -2.5 500

Oakland - Under 40 500


San Diego - 10:00 PM ET San Diego +6 500

Seattle - Under 38.5 500

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

-- If Jimmy Graham dunks the ball after every TD pass this year and gets 15-yard penalties every time, will Brees stop throwing to him in the red zone? Not a help to kick off from the 20 after a touchdown.

-- A's have lost five of last six games, are tied in loss column with Angels, who are in a soft spot (Phillies/Rangers) of their schedule. Teams meet next weekend.

-- There is a kid in the Little League World Series who is 6-4, 229. At age 13.

-- Red Sox challenged two calls on the same play last night, lost both, then lost in extra innings to the Astros.

-- Cuban prospect Rusney Castillo is taking offers, with Bronx, Boston, Detroit said to be the three most interested team. Castillo is an outfielder.

-- Hyun-Jin Ryu heads to the DL with a pulled gluteal muscle, a genuine pain in the butt to my fantasy team, with the playoffs already underway.

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.........

13) Rob Manfred will be next baseball commissioner; other than that, I know zero about the guy. It took him six votes of MLB teams to get the necessary 23 of 30 teams to vote for him; it was 20-10 after one vote, then 22-8 after three, before supposedly the Nationals got tired of being there and voted for Manfred so they could go home (votes took 4.5 hours).

Tampa Bay/Milwaukee were said to be two teams that flipped to get Manfred up to 22 votes. He’s going to be replacing former used car salesman Allen H Selig, someone who loves baseball, owned a team and did his best to improve the game; pretty tough act to follow.

12) Media whining about “pace of game” has gotten old quickly; do these two things and you lop 13-15 minutes off every game, immediately:
a) Ban managers/pitching coaches from ever visiting the mound during an inning, except for injuries and......
b) Cut 30 seconds per half inning of TV commercials; this has as much chance of happening as I have of dating Pamela Anderson, but it is one of the main reasons games take longer, the commercial breaks are longer.

11) Was watching old Florida-Alabama SEC title game late Thursday night on the new SEC Network; eerie watching Aaron Hernandez playi for the Gators, while announcers gushed about “…..what a great pro player this kid is going to be.”

10) Washington Nationals have won their last 11 games at Citi Field; they held the Mets to four runs in their 3-game sweep there this week.

9) Took more than a month, but Cubs finally brought Dan Straily to big leagues, hopefully to replace the hideous Edwin Jackson in the starting rotation. Its about freakin’ time. Straily ain't great, but he's better (and cheaper) than Jackson.

8) This is why coaches jump for bigger contracts: former Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe will now be analyzing ACC games on TV. He did tough duty at Wake Forest, getting one of the smallest schools in I-A football to the Orange Bowl game, a miracle of Bill Snyder-esque proportions, but eventually the Deacons didn’t win enough and he got shown the door, seven years after he turned down the Nebraska job.

It takes loyalty to turn Nebraska down and stay at Wake Forest, at least in football; Grobe is a terrific coach and would be a good option for someone next season.

7) Justin Simon, a California PG who has committed to Arizona, will spend his last year of high school at Brewster Academy in New Hampshire, a major weather downgrade. Why do kids do this? How does it help them?

He’s already got his scholarship for next year, why give up your last year of being a kid to play prep ball in New Hampshire? I’m sure there’s an excellent reason (play against better competition, maybe get better coaching) but it seems like sometimes, kids just grow up too soon.

6) Brian Hoyer is starting at QB Monday night for Cleveland; he and Johnny Manziel will play two series at a time, alternating playing with the first team OL.

5) Have Troy Tulowitzki and/or Carlos Gonzalez played their last games for the Rockies? They have this year; both are getting operated on, are finished for this season. Been a brutal year for Walt Weiss in Denver; makes you appreciate the job Clint Hurdle did there more and more.

4) Why are the Chargers/Cardinals playing in the last preseason game, then again in the season opener? What genius made that schedule?

3) In 1976, Clemson's weight room cost $250,000 to build. Alabama's new weight room costs $9 million.

2) Thursday night in St Louis, umpire Bob Davidson called the tying run out at the plate in the bottom of the 8th inning on a close play, but then IMMEDIATELY went to the kid with the replay headphones to ask for a review.

I thought he called the runner out for going out of the baseline—the catcher missed the tag, and replay people let the out call stand, so that had to be it, but the San Diego announcers were outraged and never broached that possibility. Was huge play in the game, for sure and St Louis wound up winning 4-3.

1) Injured pitcher Matt Harvey has to be driving the Mets nuts; he keeps saying he wants to pitch this year, their medical people say he should take it slow (another Met, Jeremy Hefner, re-injured his arm this month and needs another surgery) after Tommy John surgery, but Harvey seems like a spoiled brat who won’t shut up—he did a radio interview during a Met game, saying how he was throwing 95 and was almost ready.

Manager Terry Collins, whose ultimate job security will rely greatly on Harvey’s ongoing good health, apparently told the kid to put a sock in it, but then admitted to the media that Harvey can pretty much do what he wants, they can’t watch him 24 hours a day. Oy.

 

[CNOTES]

NFLX
Dunkel

Week 2

Buffalo at Pittsburgh
The Steelers return home following last week's 20-16 loss to the Giants in New York as they host Buffalo on Saturday night. Pittsburgh is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL preseason picks.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 16

Game 411-412: Green Bay at St. Louis (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 117.284; St. Louis 121.856
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: NY Giants at Indianapolis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 120.028; Indianapolis 119.488
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Over

Game 415-416: Baltimore at Dallas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 126.112; Dallas 119.132
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 37
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1); Under

Game 417-418: NY Jets at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 118.838; Cincinnati 125.989
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2); Over

Game 419-420: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 117.315; Pittsburgh 121.786
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Miami at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.514; Tampa Bay 117.249
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2); Under

Game 423-424: Atlanta at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.476; Houston 119.042
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Arizona at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 120.519; Minnesota 124.930
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over


SUNDAY, AUGUST 17

Game 427-428: Denver at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.393; San Francisco 125.031
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

Game 429-430: Kansas City at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.384; Carolina 122.008
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over


MONDAY, AUGUST 18

Game 431-432: Cleveland at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.868; Washington 123.730
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Tip Sheet

August 16, 2014

This year’s preseason has been all about the home team and that trend continued on Friday. Prior to yesterday’s action, home teams were 15-2 straight up and that number improved to 19-2 after all four home squads captured victories last night.

Bettors also saw a bunch of low-scoring games in Week 1 but it appears that trend could be balanced out by next weekend. After watching the ‘under’ go 14-4 in the first 18 games of the preseason, the scoreboard was finally lit up on Friday as the ‘over’ went 4-0.

Seven of the eight teams in action scored 24-plus points and half of them busted 30 or more points. With starters getting more minutes and the new emphasis of penalties being called that favor the offense, bettors shouldn’t be surprised to see more points going forward.

We have eight more preseason games on Saturday and with the help of our expert handicappers, we’ll focus on four primetime matchups for you to follow.

Be sure to check out all the openers and lines moves, plus follow us on Twitter for daily NFL updates.

N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. ET)

2014 Preseason Records: NYJ (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS), CIN (0-1 SU, 0-0-1 ATS)

Week 1 Review: New York held off Indianapolis 13-10 but failed to cover as a 3 ½-point home favorite. The combined 23 points never threatened the closing total of 39. Cincinnati found itself on the short end of a wild shootout loss to Kansas City, 41-39. The Bengals earned a push (+2) with a late touchdown and two-point conversion while the ‘over’ cashed in the second quarter.

Preseason H2H: These teams didn’t meet last summer. In 2011, the Jets captured a 27-7 win at home while the Bengals returned the favor in 2012 with a 17-6 from Cincinnati.

Expert Handicapper Notes: Tony Stoffo - New York Jets at Cincinnati

We have a strong multi-year preseason trend going here - as the Bengals under head coach Marvin Lewis and the Bengals sure like to bring a big effort in their first home preseason game - as the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread the last 4 years. The Jets may be the perfect opponent to extend this streak for the Bengals as the Jets in the first road preseason game over the past 3 years are a money making 0-3.

N.Y. Giants at Indianapolis (7:00 p.m. ET)

2014 Preseason Records: NYG (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS), Indianapolis (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS)

Week 1 Review: This will be the third preseason game for the Giants, who defeated the Bills 17-13 in the Hall of Fame Game and the Steelers 20-16 last Saturday. The ‘under’ connected in both games, barely. The Colts lost a 13-10 decision to the Jets while covering as 3 ½-point road ‘dogs.

Preseason H2H: In last year’s preseason, the Colts defeated the Giants 20-12 as two-point road underdogs while the combined 32 points fell ‘under’ the closing total of 41 ½.

Expert Handicapper Notes: Mike Rose - New York’s season was over in October a year ago as the Giants started 0-6 before finishing the season 7-9. The Giants have a pair of preseason wins thanks to playing in the Hall of Fame game and their running game has shown significant improvement with the addition of RBs Rashard Jennings and rookie Andre Williams, who should be in the spotlight even more this week with backup RB Peyton Hillis out for a bit with an ankle injury suffered last week. The offensive line is clearly stronger and going to offer better protection for Eli Manning and the Giants QBs. Veteran backup Curtis Painter is 10/10 for 94 yards in the preseason and promising rookie Ryan Nassib has played well in two games going 19/33 for 220 yards. Manning may play more to get sharper in the new West Coast offense installed this year. The Giants had a top-10 defense last year while the Colts won 11 games with a defense that ranked #20 and was below average against the run and pass despite playing in a very weak division with poor QB play.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. ET)

2014 Preseason Records: BUF (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS), PIT (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Week 1 Review: Similar to the Giants, this will be the third preseason game for the Bills. Buffalo bounced back from the HOF Game loss to New York with a 20-18 road win over Carolina last Friday. The Bills led from start to finish and avoided overtime by stopping the Panthers from converting a late two-point conversion. Pittsburgh fell to the aforementioned Giants 20-16 in Week 1. The Steelers offense produced nine points on three field goals while the defense helped the cause with a fumble recovery touchdown.

Preseason H2H: The pair met in 2012 and the Steelers ripped the Bills 38-7 as 2 ½-point road underdogs. The ‘over’ (39.5) cashed.

Expert Handicapper Notes: ASA – The Steelers' Mike Tomlin has been very successful in the preseason and goes out to win games. He had a 19-10 record in the preseason entering this season and they lost their opener in Week 1. After a rare “off” season last year where the Steelers finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs we expect them to emphasize winning this game in front of their home fans. Buffalo isn’t in a great spot here in our opinion. They are playing their 3rd straight week away from home after losing to the Giants in the Hall of Fame game in Canton, OH and then beating Carolina on the road last week 20-18. They squeaked by the Panthers despite the fact Carolina start QB Cam Newton didn’t even play in the game. The yardage was fairly close in that contest but the Panthers turned the ball over three times to just one for Buffalo which was the difference in the game.

Miami at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. ET)

2014 Preseason Records: MIA (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), TB (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Week 1 Review: The Dolphins and Buccaneers both suffered 16-10 losses in Week 1 of the preseason on the road to the Falcons and Jaguars respectively. Each team also saw the ‘under’ connect as well.

Preseason H2H: These teams square off every preseason. The Buccaneers have won and covered the last three meetings, but two of the margins were decided by four points or less. Total bettors should note that the ‘under’ is 16-3 in the last 19 preseason encounters, which includes a current run of six straight.

Expert Handicapper Notes: Pat Hawkins – The Buccaneers looked very weak in their preseason opener last week against Jacksonville, losing 16-10 on the road. I expect head coach Lovie Smith and Tampa Bay to have their offense performing at a higher level than it did in the first week of the preseason. Prior to last week’s loss, Smith was 6-2 in his last eight exhibition games, which tells you that he takes these games to heart. Look for the Bucs to put a much better performance out on the field as Lovie makes his home debut against intrastate rival Miami.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday, August 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount


N.Y. Jets - 7:00 PM ET Cincinnati -3 500

Cincinnati - Under 41 500


Baltimore - 7:00 PM ET Baltimore -2.5 500

Dallas - Over 42.5 500


N.Y. Giants - 7:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants +0 500

Indianapolis - Over 42 500


Buffalo - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo +1 500

Pittsburgh - Under 41 500


Miami - 7:30 PM ET Tampa Bay -2.5 500

Tampa Bay - Under 38.5 500


Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Atlanta +3.5 500

Houston - Under 41 500


Arizona - 8:30 PM ET Minnesota -5 500

Minnesota - Over 40.5 500