Cnotes preseason thread with stats-trends- qb rotation- picks etc. !!

[CNOTES]

Week 1 Must-Win Spots

August 6, 2014

The Super Bowl is not won or lost in Week 1, but eight of last season’s 12 playoff teams won their openers last season and only two teams that lost to non-playoff teams in Week 1 wound up in the postseason in the 2013 season. In 2012, the same was true with only four teams that started the season 0-1 making the playoffs.

While many established teams with veteran leaders accustomed to success can likely handle a Week 1 defeat and move on to a successful season, the opener will hold extra importance for these four teams in 2014. These are teams that most expect to be on the postseason bubble this season and the Week 1 results could go a long way in determining which direction the season heads for these franchises.

Atlanta Falcons: If Atlanta is going to return to being a playoff team in 2014, as many expect they will, they need to re-establish the Georgia Dome as a formidable place to play. In three straight playoff appearances from 2010-2012, the Falcons went 20-4 at home, but in a disastrous 2013 season, the Falcons went just 3-5 at home. Atlanta only has seven home games in 2014 with a London date ahead and the opener with the Saints will be critical to establishing the Falcons as a viable playoff threat in the NFC again.

Atlanta lost both games with the Saints last season although both games were tight low-scoring affairs decided by just 10 points combined. With a very tough road game at Cincinnati next on the schedule in Week 2 and then a Thursday night game in Week 3, the season for the Falcons could unravel quickly, so a decisive first step is critically important for the Falcons chances in 2014. The Saints are one of the favorites in the NFC and a team that is a regular in the postseason, but this will be a much bigger game for the hosting Falcons.

St. Louis Rams: While Minnesota may be more competitive than many people think this season, this is a game that the Rams cannot let slip away. St. Louis has a ton of talent with an incredible defensive line going up against a questionable quarterback situation for the Vikings in the first game for head coach Mike Zimmer with Minnesota. St. Louis is a team that would likely be favored to win several other divisions this season, but they are caught in the ultra tough NFC West.

The Rams have a favorable starting schedule facing winnable games in the first three weeks before a bye in Week 4. With Sam Bradford healthy in a big season for the future trajectory of his career, he needs to perform well to get St. Louis off to a good start before the team gets caught in an incredibly difficult midseason schedule. To make the playoffs in 2014, the Rams probably need to start 3-0 or at least 2-1 given the remaining schedule and the depth of the division and starting 1-0 is an absolute must for this team, especially catching the Vikings in their first game of a major transition.

New York Jets: The Jets were respectably competitive last season at 8-8 even with an ugly overall point differential on the season. New York should again have a solid defense and with a few upgrades on offense, New York feels like it can be a playoff team again in 2014. The Raiders look like an improved team in 2014 even with the team going just 4-12 the past two seasons, but catching the Raiders in Week 1 given the great roster turnover for Oakland and getting to play a west coast team at home in the opener should be an advantage for the Jets. Given the microscope on the Jets in the New York media landscape, the opener will be a critical game for quarterback Geno Smith.

In his rookie season, Smith had great inconsistency, but this season with Michael Vick waiting in a back-up role, the Jets need to avoid fueling a controversy. The schedule also will put great emphasis on Week 1 for New York as the rest of the first half schedule is filled with contenders, facing three NFC North foes in the next three games and then facing three 2013 AFC playoff teams in Weeks 5-7, including games with the both the Broncos and the Patriots.

Kansas City Chiefs: In the first season under Andy Reid, the Chiefs stormed out to a 9-0 start and made the playoffs as a Wild Card at 11-5 before blowing a big lead against the Colts to exit the playoffs. The Chiefs are almost universally projected to fall in record this season and getting off to a good start with a Week 1 victory will be critical in any attempt to deflect a fall in the standings in 2014. Tennessee is an interesting team this season as there are some quality pieces in place and this is not a franchise that hit rock bottom and is starting completely over in the coaching change with Ken Whisenhunt taking over for Mike Munchak. The Titans expect to be a competitive team this season and are even considered a sleeper by many in the AFC.

If Kansas City is to remain a viable playoff candidate, they need to win this game at home, especially considering that a trip to Denver is next on the schedule and starting 0-2 would make for a very tough hurdle to climb. The Chiefs also have to play New England and San Francisco in the first five weeks as things could go from bad to worse quickly in Kansas City, but a Week 1 victory would at least allow the Chiefs to avoid a disastrous start and feature some confidence heading into the huge AFC West showdown in Week 2.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC South Outlook

August 7, 2014

Division winner

Order was restored last season with Sean Payton reinstated following a one-year suspension for Bountygate that saw New Orleans fall to 7-9, offering further proof that he's among the NFL's elite head coaches. His renowned organizational skills and the preparation he puts into game plans has helped produce four consecutive double-digit win totals. The Saints have 48 victories over the last four seasons he's been at the helm, which includes capturing Super Bowl XLIV as an underdog. After finishing one game behind Carolina in 2013, look for Payton's team to claim their first NFC South title since 2012. The Panthers won't be as consistent as they were last season, and while Tampa Bay and Atlanta will be better, no one seems to be in New Orleans' class.

Drew Brees has familiar weapons Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas and Kenny Stills back, not to mention intriguing rookie wideouts Brandin Cooks and Brandon Coleman. Rob Ryan is a quality defensive coordinator who has had an impact helping to shore up the team's biggest weakness, which helps make them a legitimate Super Bowl contender. New Orleans was within a possession of the defending champion Seahawks in Seattle for much of the fourth quarter of the divisional playoffs as the No. 6 seed. With a better draw and a little home field advantage, they can do serious damage come January.

Projected order of finish

1) New Orleans
2) Carolina
3) Atlanta
4) Tampa Bay

Go over with

While the Saints getting over 10.5 wins is the recommendation, Sportsbook.ag has the Panthers total available at 7 ½, which seems like an immense trap. We know Carolina won't be a division power and is unlikely to be a playoff team again, but to go from 12 wins to sub-.500 seems drastic. Don't fall in. The defense will do the heavy lifting, counting on Cam Newton to play Emeril Lagasse and make chicken salad out of those offensive pieces. Even if they're successful and get to 8-8 or 9-7, it's going to be a grind. Up front, it won't help matters that Jordan Gross retired, but having center Ryan Kalil anchoring the line means they should be successful. Newton has to replace Steve Smith and deep threat Ted Ginn, but he'll find a few pieces to develop great rhythm with, relying on timing patterns to methodically move the chains. The Panthers will scrap for everything they get, which may appeal to their fan base, but not to your sanity when the possibility of riding with New Orleans to get to 11-5 exists. I just didn't want to write about the Saints here, so went the cautionary route instead.

Go under with

The Buccaneers could also surprise, going from 4-12 to possibly .500 in Lovie Smith's first season. They need everything to go smoothly in their transition to a new system and new quarterback in Josh McCown, but Sportsbook.ag projection of 7 seems about right. That leaves Atlanta, given the extra wiggle room at 8 ½, as the friendlier option.

The Falcons will be better. Losing Tony Gonzalez hurts, but Julio Jones will remind people just how great he is. The offensive line, if healthy, should provide ample time and space to execute. Even with linebacker Sean Weatherspoon out another season, there's talent on the defense, especially along line especially up front. They'll be able to get pressure. Still, there's a stretch you probably don't want to get caught up in, because there's little room for error. From September 28 to November 16, Atlanta will have exactly one home game. Chicago comes into Georgia Dome on October 12, and a scheduled "home" date two weeks later against Detroit will actually be played at London's Wembley Stadium. The Vikings, Giants, Ravens, Lions, Bucs and Panthers aren't murderers row, but when you're playing all of them on their turf, or overseas, with only one lengthy bye in between, it's very easy to fall into a bad spell. It also puts great pressure on Atlanta to take care of its home turf. Expecting them to more than double last season's win total seems demanding.

Games to watch - September

Sept. 7 - New Orleans at Atlanta: Let's see just how far apart these teams are out of the gate and give the Falcons homefield just to make it even more interesting. Hopefully, both get through preseason in good health and we get a show. In spite of last season's win discrepancy, both meetings were one-possession games that were decided late when the Saints defense held.

Sept. 7 - Carolina at Tampa Bay: We get to see just how both are planning to score right out of the gate. The Panthers outscored the Bucs 58-19 in 2013's sweep. Lovie's home debut, and probably McCown's, comes against an opponent that has terrorized them. Can another making his first official appearance at Raymond James, top pick Mike Evans, dazzle to help pull an upset?

Sept. 14 - Detroit at Carolina: Regardless of how the Tampa game turns out, this is going to tell us a lot about the Panthers. Can they stop a dynamic offense like old times? Score just enough, or somehow find a way in a shootout? After their highly anticipated opener in Charlotte, will they be 2-0? 1-1? 0-2?

Sept. 14 - St. Louis at Tampa Bay: The Rams are a playoff hopeful looking to continue their ascent, but a second straight home game gives the Bucks an opportunity to position themselves as the NFL's surprise team after Week 2.

Sept. 18 - Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Week 3 begins with a Thursday night battle to see which team has come the farthest. Considering what we covered above regarding the odyssey that awaits the Falcons after this game ends, it's vital they get this one.

Sept. 21 - Pittsburgh at Carolina: Though they've closed out every preseason since 2003, this Sunday nighter will match the Steelers and Panthers for the first time since 2010. Expect it to be a pivotal game for both, guaranteeing a physical battle fueled by two of the toughest quarterbacks in the game to bring down.

Sept. 28 - Atlanta at Minnesota: Atlanta's road warrior mentally would have to start developing here against one-time defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer in his second home game as Vikings head coach. Since it has arguably the toughest opening three-game stretch of anyone (at St. Louis, vs. New England, at New Orleans), Minnesota isn't likely to go down quietly.

Sept. 28 - New Orleans at Dallas: Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan got revenge against his former employer in a 49-17 rout last November, watching Drew Brees carve up the Cowboys for an NFL-record 40 first downs and a franchise-best 625 yards. He'd love to go into Jerry World and have his defense put on an equally impressive showing in Week 4's Sunday night game.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Preseason Tips

August 7, 2014

Colts at Jets (-3, 36 ½) - 7:00 PM EST

2013 Preseason Records: IND (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS), NYJ (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Jets (+3) beat Colts, 31-7 in 2004

QB Rotations:
IND - A. Luck, M. Hasselbeck, C. Harnish
NYJ - G. Smith, M. Vick, M. Simms, T. Boyd*

Expert Handicapper Analysis: Dave Cokin - Colts head man Chuck Pagano is the first to come right out and say this game doesn't mean a whole lot to him. His team has some early injuries, and his "just trying to get through this" comment is telling. The Jets offense has not looked good in scrimmages, which is not shocking at all, but the defense appears to very sharp already. Not necessarily saying the Jets will want this more, but I'm pretty sure the Colts want it less. That's enough to get me to the favorite in this game, laying the points with the Jets.

Patriots at Redskins (-1 ½, 38) - 7:30 PM EST

2013 Preseason Records: NE (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), WSH (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Patriots (-3 ½) beat Redskins, 27-24 in 2009

QB Rotations:
NE - R. Mallett, J. Garoppolo*
WSH - R. Griffin III, K. Cousins, C. McCoy

Expert Handicapper Analysis: Bruce Marshall - While the track record of new head coaches (such as Washington's Jay Gruden) in their first preseason games is not particularly illuminating, Bill Belichick's recent marks in preseason openers are worth noting. That's because his Patriots have won five consecutive lid-lifters, as Belichick usually likes to set a winning tone at the outset before inevitably delivering a flat effort or two later in preseason. Play the Patriots.

49ers at Ravens (-1, 35) - 7:30 PM EST

2013 Preseason Records: SF (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), BAL (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: First ever meeting

QB Rotations:
SF - C. Kaepernick, J. Johnson, B. Gabbert, M. Bethel-Thompson, K. Faulkner
BAL - J. Flacco, T. Taylor, K. Wenning*

Expert Handicapper Analysis: Hank Goldberg - The Harbaugh brothers will match wits and I believe John takes the exhibition more seriously. He’s 5-1 against the spread in his last six preseason openers. Plus, I believe it will be very tough for San Francisco, who has to travel cross-country to Maryland.

Bengals at Chiefs (-1 ½, 36 ½) - 8:00 PM EST

2013 Preseason Records: CIN (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), KC (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: First ever meeting

QB Rotations:
CIN - A. Dalton, J. Campbell, A.J. McCarron*
KC - A. Smith, C. Daniel, T. Bray, A. Murray*

Expert Handicapper Analysis: Pat Hawkins - I'm taking the Bengals on the money line because taking under a field doesn't help especially when laying odds (-110). Andy Reid has a proven track record of not caring about the first preseason game going 1-8 in his last nine openers while the Chiefs are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 preaseason games. Kansas City is coming off a surprise season in 2013, but look for Reid to address this game as a practice in pads and play very conservatively.

Seahawks (-2, 37 ½) at Broncos - 9:00 PM EST

2013 Preseason Records: SEA (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS), DEN (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Seahawks (-5) beat Broncos, 40-10 in 2013

QB Rotations:
SEA - R. Wilson, T. Jackson, T. Pryor, B. J. Daniels
DEN - P. Manning, B. Osweiler, Z. Dysert, B. Renner*

Expert Handicapper Analysis: ASA - Seattle’s offense scored a bunch of points in last year’s pre-season schedule (30 PPG), but they were breaking in Russell Wilson at QB and he picked up a lot of playing time. That won’t be the case this year. They know what Wilson can do so look for him to only be in for a series or two. The Bronco defense will be focused in here after allowing 43 points in the Super Bowl and we expect a big effort on that side of the ball. Look for a defensive battle with neither team revealing much offensively here. Take the under.

Cowboys at Chargers (-3, 37) - 10:00 PM EST

2013 Preseason Records: DAL (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS), SD (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Chargers (-3) beat Cowboys, 28-20 in 2012

QB Rotations: DAL - B. Weeden, C. Hanie, D. Vaughan*
SD - P. Rivers, K. Clemens, B. Sorensen

Expert Handicapper Analysis: Tony Stoffo - Going with a highly recommended play on the over in this spot between the Cowboys and Chargers - as first the Chargers with McCoy in his first season as head coach of the Chargers saw 3 of the 4 San Diego preseason games go over the posted total. With his former offensive experience from his Denver days, I look for more of an wide open offensive approach in the preseason this year. I can see the Cowboys offensive numbers going up this preseason with the addition of Brandon Weeden in the offseason.

* - Rookie

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, August 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Indianapolis - 7:00 PM ET Indianapolis +3.5 500

N.Y. Jets - Over 37 500


New England - 7:30 PM ET Washington -1.5 500

Washington - Over 38.5 500


San Francisco - 7:30 PM ET San Francisco +2.5 500

Baltimore - Under 37 500


Cincinnati - 8:00 PM ET Kansas City -1.5 500

Kansas City - Under 37 500


Seattle - 9:00 PM ET Seattle -2 500

Denver - Under 37.5 500


Dallas - 10:00 PM ET Dallas +3.5 500

San Diego - Over 37.5 500

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's NFL Week 1 preseason betting primer

The opening week of the NFL preseason continues in full force Friday with six games on the docket. Here's a look at betting notes for Friday's NFL preseason action:

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 37)

* The Dolphins are expected to be without several key offensive contributors Friday night, including running back Knowshon Moreno (knee), wide receiver Mike Wallace (hamstring) and tight end Charles Clay (knee). The quarterbacking play behind starter Ryan Tannehill will likely fall to Seth Lobato and Brock Jensen, a pair of undrafted free agents.

* Falcons star receiver Julio Jones will likely sit out the game as he makes his recovery from foot surgery, though he did practice on a limited basis Wednesday and is hopeful of seeing action at some point during the exhibition season. Head coach Mike Smith is traditionally stingy when it comes to first-team offense in the preseason opener, which means Matt Ryan and Co., will likely only play the game's opening series.

Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (+1.5, 37)

* The Bills may be dealing with a handful of major injuries - including standout linebacker Kiko Alonso's season-ending ACL tear early in training camp - but the kicking game is strong, as Dan Carpenter went a perfect 8-for-8 Wednesday. Buffalo will be looking for a better performance from its first-team offense than it had in its preseason opener, when it managed just 27 yards on 11 plays against the Giants.

* Quarterback Cam Newton has been careful with his surgically repaired left ankle, participating in only light passing drills Thursday and likely sitting out Friday's contest as a precaution. Head coach Ron Rivera says Newton won't see more than two series if he does take the field, and likely won't be allowed to scramble or use the read-option during the game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1, 37)

* The Buccaneers have anointed offseason acquisition Josh McCown as the Week 1 starter, which means he should see limited action Friday while starter-turned-backup Mike Glennon sees as much or more playing time as the game goes on. Rookie wide receiver Mike Evans is "progressing" from a hamstring injury but may be limited Friday or held out altogether.

* The Jaguars will be without seven players for the preseason opener, including expected No. 1 running back Toby Gerhart (hip flexor), No. 1 wide receiver Cecil Shorts (hamstring) and tight ends Clay Harbor (calf) and Brandon Barden (illness). The Jaguars will go with a three-pronged rush attack in Gerhart's absence, with Jordan Todman starting and Storm Johnson and Denar Robinson spelling him.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-1.5, 42)

* With two of the Eagles' veteran wide receivers - Riley Cooper (ankle) and Jeremy Maclin (legs) - likely to sit out Friday's exhibition opener, unproven pass-catchers like Jordan Matthews, Josh Huff and Brad Smith will jockey for playing time. Head coach Chip Kelly doesn't see his starters playing more than two series, with 10-15 plays the target amount before the backups take over.

* The Bears suspended tight end Martellus Bennett for conduct detrimental to the team earlier in the week, but head coach Marc Trestman had a "very positive" conversation with Bennett and won't rule out his participation in the preseason opener. At quarterback, Jimmy Clausen and Jordan Palmer will both see plenty of action Friday as they duel for the No. 2 spot behind Jay Cutler.

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams (-3, 38)

* Veteran receivers Marques Colston and Kenny Stills will likely see a lighter load Friday as they take a back seat to electrifying rookie Brandin Cooks, who has impressed the New Orleans coaching staff in training camp and will be a popular target against St. Louis. The Saints were an impressive 3-1 in preseason action last year, then rode that momentum to a season-opening five-game winning streak.

* The Rams will be without left tackle Chris Long, who spent the offseason recovering from ACL surgery last January and still isn't quite ready for game action. St. Louis also isn't expecting to play quarterback Sam Bradford, who took the first-team reps throughout the week but will be treated with caution by head coach Jeff Fisher after undergoing major knee surgery last season.

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 38)

* Head coach Dennis Allen told reporters Thursday that "everyone healthy" will see action against the Vikings, though it's likely quarterback Matt Schaub and the rest of the first-team offense will play just two series. Oakland is relatively healthy going into the game; left guard Lamar Mady missed Wednesday's practice with an ankle injury, those who participated came away unscathed.

* Those hoping to catch a glimpse of Adrian Peterson in the preseason will be disappointed; the All-Pro running back won't dress for Friday's opener and might possibly sit out the entire exhibition campaign to preserve himself for the rigors of the regular season. Matt Cassel will likely get the start at quarterback Friday, though Teddy Bridgewater will see time as the two remain locked in a battle for the Week 1 starting job.

 

[CNOTES]

NFLX
Dunkel

Week 1

FRIDAY, AUGUST 8

Game 263-264: Miami at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.670; Atlanta 124.729
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6; 42
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2 1/2); Over

Game 265-266: Buffalo at Carolina (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 122.521; Carolina 118.676
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4; 33
Vegas Line: Buffalo 1 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1 1/2); Under

Game 267-268: Tampa Bay at Jacksonville (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 116.743; Jacksonville 120.518
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 4; 32
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 1; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-1); Under

Game 269-270: New Orleans at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 120.253; St. Louis 126.409
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 6; 44
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-3); Over

Game 271-272: Philadelphia at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 122.284; Chicago 120.337
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 35
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+2); Under

Game 273-274: Oakland at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 121.818; Minnesota 120.861
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Over


SATURDAY, AUGUST 9

Game 275-276: Cleveland at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.331; Detroit 125.739
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 8 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); Under

Game 277-278: Pittsburgh at NY Giants (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 120.116; NY Giants 124.605
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BY Giants (-2 1/2); Under

Game 279-280: Green Bay at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 123.981; Tennessee 121.292
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2); Over

Game 281-282: Houston at Arizona (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 124.306; Arizona 121.677
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NFLX

Friday, August 8


What trends emerged in Thursday's preseason action

Teams have gotten off to a slow start this preseason going 1-6 over/under in the first seven games, hitting almost 86 percent of the time.

While home teams have been the side to bet against the spread so far, going 5-1-1 ATS, coming in over 83 percent of the time.

 

[CNOTES]

Opinions in the Preseason.....

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/07/14 5-*7-*0 41.67% -*1350 Detail

08/03/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

Totals 5-*9-*0 35.71% -*2450


Friday, August 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Miami - 7:00 PM ET Miami +3.5 500

Atlanta - Under 37 500


Buffalo - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo -2 500

Carolina - Under 37 500


Tampa Bay - 7:30 PM ET Tampa Bay +2.5 500

Jacksonville - Over 36 500


Philadelphia - 8:00 PM ET Philadelphia +0 500

Chicago - Over 42 500


New Orleans - 8:00 PM ET St. Louis -1.5 500

St. Louis - Under 38 500


Oakland - 8:00 PM ET Oakland +3 500

Minnesota - Under 38 500

 

[theMadMan]

Wow

For the amount of time and effort you put into these stats Your results are very disappointing==

THIS IS HOW HARD IT IS TO WIN IN THE NFL

anyway thanks for the info.......

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's NFL Week 1 preseason betting primer

The opening week of the NFL preseason winds down Saturday. Here's a look at betting notes for the four remaining games:

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-1, 39.5)

* Browns head coach Mike Pettine isn't telling anyone about how he'll divide up the playing time - not even the players - but it's expected that Brian Hoyer and the first-team offense will see two or three series. Much of the offensive focus will be on rookie running back Terrance West, who is expected to see plenty of playing time as he looks to solidify the backup role behind Ben Tate.

* The Lions sport a new-look offense, and will have it on display against Cleveland - though it may not include wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who is questionable for the exhibition opener. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi wouldn't say how much time quarterback Matthew Stafford would see, suggesting that would be dictated by the flow of the game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-2.5, 37)

* The Steelers had a dreadful preseason a year ago, dropping all four games - including an 18-13 decision to the Giants in their opener nearly a year to the day before their next exhibition matchup. As it was a year ago, the early focus will be on quarterbacks Bruce Gradkowski and Landry Jones, who will both get a chance Saturday to make their case for serving as Ben Roethlisberger's backup.

* Even though the Giants are playing their second game of the exhibition season, head coach Tom Coughlin doesn't see the first-team offense playing much more than it did in the opener against the Buffalo Bills. Head coach Tom Coughlin said he's still in the process of evaluating the rest of the roster, which means that quarterback Eli Manning and Co. may only see slightly more than the 15 snaps it had against Buffalo.

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-2, 38)

* Packers head coach Mike McCarthy expects to give work to all four of his quarterbacks currently in camp against the Titans, so don't expect Aaron Rodgers to see more than one or two series of action. Seven players still in camp didn't make the trip to Tennessee due to injury, including safety Morgan Burnett (oblique strain) and tight end Colt Lyerla (knee sprain).

* Head coach Ken Whisenhunt has said both the offensive and defensive starters should expect to play 12-15 snaps against the Packers. With the Titans having emerged from training camp relatively healthy, there should be several areas of focus Saturday - including battles for starting cornerback spots and the duel between Charlie Whitehurst and rookie Zach Mettenberger for the No. 2 quarterback job.

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 37.5)

* With No. 1 quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick expected to be limited in the opener, Case Keenum and rookie Tom Savage will see the majority of reps over the final 3 1/2 quarters - and for Keenum, the opportunity is there to perhaps seize the starting role. With wide receiver Andre Johnson sitting out with a hamstring injury, the focus will be on third-year receiver DeVier Posey, who will start in his place.

* Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians believes the starters on both sides of the ball will see about 15 snaps, though it's unlikely to be any more than that with nearly the entire Arizona roster healthy and available to play. Arizona had a successful exhibition campaign a year ago, rolling to a 3-1 record after going just 1-4 a season earlier.




NFLX
Dunkel

Week 1

SATURDAY, AUGUST 9

Game 275-276: Cleveland at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.331; Detroit 125.739
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 8 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); Under

Game 277-278: Pittsburgh at NY Giants (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 120.116; NY Giants 124.605
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BY Giants (-2 1/2); Under

Game 279-280: Green Bay at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 123.981; Tennessee 121.292
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2); Over

Game 281-282: Houston at Arizona (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 124.306; Arizona 121.677
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NFC West Outlook

August 8, 2014

Division winner

There's clearly not a lot separating Seattle and San Francisco. Since Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh took over their respective teams, they've split a pair of NFC West titles. To be fair, Carroll's 2010 conquest came against Mike Singletary with a 7-9 record that won a brutal division, but he certainly got his licks in on Harbaugh and the 49ers last season. Not only did the Seahawks end their rival's two-year reign atop the division, they captured the first playoff duel between these star head coaches, earning a Super Bowl berth and trash-talking rights. That's history, though.

With both teams loaded, there isn't much between them again. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick should continue their emergence and friendly rivalry. Both stables of running backs look tremendous and deep. The defenses are truly formidable. They should remain among the NFC's elite and may decide matters with another winner-take-all date in 2015. As for the division, the team that's healthiest for their showdowns on Thanksgiving night (November 27 in S.F.) and Dec. 14 will have an edge, but there is one variable worth remembering when the time comes. It's about the challenge sandwiched in between their meetings.

Seattle, while home for Game 2, will have played in Philadelphia the week prior. Meanwhile, San Francisco gets to hang in the Bay area for a road game against the Raiders, probably lightening the mental and physical load. Added to the revenge factor, that forces a slight nod to the hungrier 49ers, blessed by the schedule fairy.

Projected order of finish

1) San Francisco
2) Seattle
3) St. Louis
4) Arizona

Go over with

It's likely going to take at least 11 wins to take the NFC West, so I'd sign off on the 49ers, since Sportsbook.ag has their total available at 10.5, favoring the Seahawks (11). The best option, however, is counting on Jeff Fisher's rebuilding project in St. Louis to produce at least a .500 record for the first time. After going 7-9 in 2013, the Rams should be ready to make a serious at the playoffs in spite of their loaded division. Gregg Williams returns to a defensive coordinator role for the first time since Bountygate and knows what he's doing. He's got excellent weapons, particularly up front. If rookie Aaron Donald keeps developing fast, a unit already featuring First Team All-Pro Robert Quinn and fellow first-rounders Chris Long and Michael Brockers could become the NFL's top defensive line. QB Sam Bradford will need to be slightly more than a game manager without putting his team in bad spots with turnovers, but he's at the point where things should click, especially if he can make better use of Tavon Austin's game-changing speed. The Rams will surpass the 7.5 available at most shops.

Go under with

This is definitely the strongest division in the sport, but someone has to bring up the rear and likely won't get to .500 in doing so. Looking at you, Arizona. Carson Palmer improved the offense in the first year of the Bruce Arians regime, completing over 63 percent of his passes for a career-high 4,274 yards. If he can do it again, it would merit applause but would be surprising. Andre Ellington, Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor have to prove they can handle the load at tailback, while the addition of burner Ted Ginn must translate into a suitable replacement for reliable threat Andre Roberts. Defensively, suspended linebacker Daryl Washington will be greatly missed, while talented defensive back Tyrann Mathieu will spend at least the first month of the season getting back in a flow. After missing out on the playoffs despite 10 wins, the Cardinals are set to slip given their difficult schedule and likely regression in key spots.

Games to watch - September

Sept. 4 - Green Bay at Seattle: The Thursday night season opener sees these powers meet for the second time in three years at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks won on that awful "touchception" call that ended up helping to bring an end to the 2012 referee strike, but will be in a favorite role this time around, hoping to take care of business without the need for such a dramatic ending.

Sept. 8 - San Diego at Arizona: The second half of Week 1's now annual Monday night doubleheader header will decide pools and fantasy leagues, but will likely also be worth tuning into just for the actual game. Palmer vs. Philip Rivers slinging it around sounds like fun.

Sept. 14 - Arizona at N.Y. Giants: Palmer will likely continue in gunslinger mode against Eli Manning, hoping to capitalize against New York's vulnerable secondary. If the Cardinals are going to be a playoff contender again, they'll have to capture their share of winnable road games like this one, especially since NYG will be performing on a short week, too.

Sept 14 - Chicago at San Francisco: The Week 2 Sunday night game will be a massive hurdle for Jay Cutler and a Bears offensive line that returns intact after starting all 16 games together last season. If they keep making significant progress, they'll be a factor in the NFC. This will be a great opportunity to see where they stand.

Sept. 21 - Dallas at St. Louis: The Cowboys won last year's meeting 31-7 and need to capture winnable road games like these if they're going to truly contend. Of course, the Rams have their own aspirations and their fan base will view this as a marquee matchup whether the Cowboys stink or turn things around. Count on Gregg Williams sending a ton of pressure Tony Romo's way.

Sept. 21 - San Francisco at Arizona: The first intra division game of 2014 is vital to the confidence of both, since the Cardinals want to prove at home that they'll again be a factor and the 49ers want to stomp out their fire. Don't forget, last time these teams met, Phil Dawson snuffed out Arizona's postseason dreams with a Week 17 game-winning field goal as time expired.

Sept. 21- Denver at Seattle: The Broncos held off a Terrelle Pryor-led rally late in the preseason opener, riding top backup Brock Osweiler for the duration after he relieved Peyton Manning. That should tell you how much they wanted to wash the taste of the Super Bowl rout out of their mouths. Something tells me the Seahawks will be OK letting Denver end their nine-game winning streak in exhibition play if they can hold serve at home here.

Sept. 28 - Philadelphia at San Francisco: A truly difficult first month for the Eagles ends in the Bay area, bu they'll get no sympathy from the host 49ers. After a challenging month of their own, Harbaugh's team is the only NFC West team playing to close September. Chip Kelly's projected top 5 offense visits Vic Fangio's elite defense in Week 4's marquee matchup.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Preseason Tips

August 9, 2014

Week 1 Recap: The home teams have won 10 of the first 12 preseason contests, including a 6-0 mark on Thursday. Last night, the Bills and Saints were the only road teams to win, while the 'over' went 3-3 on Friday. The 'under' cashed in five of six games on Thursday night, while eight teams so far this preseason have scored 10 points or less.

Browns at Lions (-1, 39 ½) - 7:30 PM EST

2013 Preseason Records: CLE (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS), DET (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Browns (-1 ½) beat Lions, 24-6 in 2013

QB Rotations:
CLE - B. Hoyer, J. Manziel*, T. Thigpen, C. Shaw*
DET - M. Stafford, K. Moore, D. Orlovsky, J. Franklin*

Expert Handicapper Analysis: Marc Lawrence - The Browns are 4-0 SU/ATS in preseason openers last four years, and 2-0 SU/ATS last two games in this preseason series. The Lions are 2-4 SU/ATS pin reseason openers as either a dog or favorite of less than 3 points. With Caldwell 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS during the preseason, including 0-3 SU/ATS in opening games, and the Browns in a heated quarterback battle for the starting job, we recommend a play on Cleveland.

Steelers at Giants (-2 ½, 37) - 7:30 PM EST

2013 Preseason Records: PIT (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), NYG (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Giants (+2 ½) beat Steelers, 18-13 in 2013

QB Rotations:
PIT - B. Roethlisberger, B. Gradkowski, L. Jones, B. Kay*
NYG - E. Manning, R. Nassib, C. Painter

Expert Handicapper Analysis: Kevin Rogers - The Giants are just 2-4-1 ATS in their past seven preseason games in the favorite role, while coming off a three-point win over the Bills in the Hall of Fame Game. The Steelers were winless in the preseason last year, but I expect them to put together a better effort to kick off this exhibition campiagn.

Packers at Titans (-1 ½, 38) - 8:00 PM EST

2013 Preseason Records: GB (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS), TEN (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Titans (-3 ½) beat Packers, 27-13 in 2009

QB Rotations:
GB - A. Rodgers, M. Flynn, S. Tolzien, C. Rettig*
TEN - J. Locker, C. Whitehurst, T. Wilson, Z. Mettenberger*

Expert Handicapper Analysis: ASA - This is a much more important game for the host Titans. After winning only three games last year, new head coach Ken Whisenhunt wants this win. They are playing a high profile team in front of the home fans. The Packers are a playoff and Super Bowl contender. They know what they have. They’ve been in the same situation the last few years and haven’t taken the pre-season all that seriously with a 3-5 SU record the last two seasons. Last year, Green Bay was held to 10 points or less in 3 of their 4 pre-season tilts. They don’t care. Tennessee is trying to build some confidence under a new coach.

Texans at Cardinals (-2, 37 ½) - 8:30 PM EST

2013 Preseason Records: HOU (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), ARZ (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Cardinals (+2 ½) beat Texans, 19-16 in 2010

QB Rotations:
HOU - R. Fitzpatrick, C. Keenum, T. Savage*
ARZ - C. Palmer, D. Stanton, R. Lindley, L. Thomas*

Expert Handicapper Analysis: Tony Stoffo - With all the changes going on in Houston, I feel it will take new head coach Bill O'Brien a few preseason games to start to see things run smoothly. So I can see the Texans running into problems here against a solid Arizona squad that won 3 of their 5 preseasons games a year ago under head coach Bruce Arians.

* - Rookie

 

[b-rad]

Thanks for the Info Cnotes, Always Appreciated..!! WoW...Isn't it strange no matter what a person does that there is always some type of criticism..

 

[CNOTES]

lol.........I WASN'T going to say anything ........its only a opinion on the games....1st week of preseason and am getting grief......what is it with some people.......i don't see any posts for that dude....but he sure can complain about my record....he couldn't just use the infor i put here and shut up.....nooooooooooo he had to say something about my selections of games..... am usually very quiet and don't say much.....but give me a break bradda.......football has just started.........AMAZING

Right i do put in alot of work to give everyone information......and am sorry i can't give you 99% on all my selections....I hope you do find that person bradda......thanks for kicking my ass so early in the season...i feel so good now...

azzkick(&^

 

[CNOTES]

THESE ARE OPINIONS ONLY:

Saturday, August 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Cleveland - 7:30 PM ET Cleveland +0 500

Detroit - Over 39.5 500


Pittsburgh - 7:30 PM ET N.Y. Giants -3 500

N.Y. Giants - Over 37.5 500


Green Bay - 8:00 PM ET Tennessee -1.5 500

Tennessee - Over 38 500


Houston - 8:30 PM ET Arizona -2.5 500

Arizona - Under 37.5 500

 

[RDTrains]

CNOTES - appreciate all the work & info. Any thoughts or info on how rookie coaches do in first preseason game/first season? Thanks again.

 

[johnnylightning]

the last 10 games that a Rookie Head Coach went into in the Pre Season the 1st game they are 7-2-1 ats, this was going into this preseason, so far 1-1 this year Washington a winner and Tampa Bay a loser, this info was from a very reliable source

 

[b-rad]

Cnotes, I wasn't criticizing your picks, I just mentioned that other post and how he was picking on your selections. I do appreciate all the work you put in and use most of it for handicapping as a tool.

 

[CNOTES]

I wasn't talking about you Brad......am sorry but it was meant for the other person........

 

[CNOTES]

Team to Watch - N.Y. Giants

August 9, 2014


We've seen a similar scenario unfold twice with the New York Giants (2013 SUR 7-9, ATS 7-9, O/U 7-9) in recent memory. Overlooked entering the season, while the media fawns over more flashy contenders in the NFC East. Back-and-forth efforts throughout the first half of the campaign. Then, the gears begin to mesh in December, quarterback Eli Manning begins to play with confidence, and the Giants peak at just the right time to storm down the stretch and win the Super Bowl.

The above transpired in both the 2007 and 2001 seasons under head coach Tom Coughlin, and, in truth, we don't really expect lightning to strike the same way for a third time in 2014. But history suggests to us that this is the sort of situation in which Coughlin and Manning are often their most dangerous. And since we have reservations (in some cases severe reservations) about the other entries in the NFC East, we think this is the time to be on the lookout for another Giants revival this fall.

We know the many questions surrounding the G-Men, who were far from contention a year ago and do not have the look of a serious contender entering the preseason. There is also considerable discussion about the future of Coughlin, now 67 and likely to consider retirement at some point in the near future. Moreover, there are legitimate questions about Eli, whose recent performances suggest he has begun on the downside of his career, now entering its 11th season. The 2013 version of Manning hardly suggested a repeat of the 2007 or 2011 Super Bowl runs would occur anytime soon.

Coughlin and GM Jerry Reese, however, hardly stood still after the disappointment of 2013, and were quick to authorize changes in the offseason. Reese proceeded to overhaul much of the roster with a $114 million face lift. Coughlin also made important changes in his staff, namely recruiting a bright, new, and young offensive coordinator, 37-year-old Ben McAdoo, who most recently served as the QB coach on Mike McCarthy's Green Bay staff.

McAdoo has made sweeping changes on the offensive side of the ball, introducing a West Coast offense that many believe is a better fit for Eli. In theory, the Giants should no longer be as one-dimensional and predictable, with an improved infantry and emphasis on a short and intermediate passing game and a faster pace that Eli should be able to master. He'd better, because there is no room for a repeat of his subpar 2013 performance in which he tossed a league-high 27 picks, contributing the Giants' ghastly 44 turnovers, which ranked worst in the league and a main factor in an 0-6 start that had the G-Men scrambling for answers a few weeks before Halloween.

Much of Reese's offseason maneuvering involved getting upgraded pieces for the new McAdoo offense. The line was targeted in free agency, with projected starters J.D. Walton (via Redskins) at center and Geoff Schwartz (via Chiefs) at left guard among the recruits. Another key addition was ex-Raider RB Rashad Jennings, who gained 733 YR and caught 36 passes last year in Oakland and appears well suited for a feature-back role. Although former first-round pick David Wilson has been forced to retire due to recurring neck issues, NFC East sources believe backfield depth is still fine with promising Boston College rookie Andre Williams (who gained 2,177 YR last year with the Eagles) and well-traveled Peyton Hillis, a perfect addition for short-yardage situations.

Even after the FA departure of Hakeem Nicks, Eli will have plenty of receiving targets at the ready, led by big-play Victor Cruz (another 73 catches LY) and emerging ex-LSU star Rueben Randle, whose progress made it easier to let Nicks walk after the season. A hero of the Super Bowl XVLI win over the Patriots, Mario Manningham, also returns to the fold and will provide Eli with another familiar weapon, while the Giants' first-round draft pick, LSU WR Odell Beckham, Jr., adds another potential fear factor to the offense. Ex-Bronco Trindon Holliday, a lethal special teams threat who burned the G-Men for a punt return TD at Met Life Stadium last September, has also been inked to upgrade the return game.

Meanwhile, Perry Fewell's defense mostly performed in a playoff-quality manner last season, but Reese was still busy at upgrades in the offseason, with CB Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie moving from Denver and the single biggest-ticket (five years at $35 million) FA addition by the G-Men. He fills a glaring need for a shutdown corner, while ex-Seahawk Walter Thurmond, who was the prime nickel back in Pete Carroll's defense, now likely to slip into a the starting role on the right corner, opposite Rodgers-Cromartie. These secondary upgrades were critical in a division with as many big receiving targets as the NFC East.

Reese also made sure to re-sign MLB Jon Beason, who emerged as the team's defensive MVP after an October trade with the Panthers. A key development in the front four will be a return to form of DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who as recently as 2011 recorded a whopping 16 1/2 sacks but was reduced to just two last season in his comeback year from back surgery. Coughlin, Fewell and Reese expect Pierre-Paul back to top form, however, which was one of the reasons they were willing to let fellow DE Justin Tuck walk (to the Raiders) in free agency.

We don't expect to see the Giants picked to win the East by too many others in the media, who often base such projections on results from last season...period. But history also tells us this is just the sort of situation where the Coughlin G-Men have to be feared.