Sunday's Top Action
October 17, 2014
CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-1-1) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 50
Opening Line & Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 48.5
The Colts look for their fifth straight victory when they host the Bengals on Sunday.
While Cincinnati came away with a 37-37 tie in its Week 6 matchup with the Panthers, Indianapolis jumped out to a big lead and held on for a 33-28 win as a 2.5-point favorite in Houston on Thursday. The Colts are now 5-1 ATS on the season. The Bengals won the most recent meeting last December by a 42-28 score as 7.5-point favorites. QB Andrew Luck threw four touchdowns in that game, but the Indianapolis defense was unable to stop Cincinnati. But when playing at home, the Colts are 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS versus the Bengals since 1992, and are also 6-0 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium in Weeks 5 through 9 over the past three years. Indy is also 12-1 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 in that time. The Bengals are, however, 11-1 ATS after allowing 400+ total yards in two straight games since 1992. WR A.J. Green (toe) is doubtful for Cincinnati. DE Arthur Jones (ankle) is likely to return to practice for the Colts, but he’s questionable for the game on Sunday.
The Bengals have played extremely well to this point in the season, and a lot of that is thanks to the play of RB Giovani Bernard (384 rush yards, 4 TD). Bernard rushed for a career-high 137 yards in a tie against the Panthers last game. He found the end zone on an 89-yard score and also caught four passes for 20 yards. With WR A.J. Green (17 rec, 314 yards, 2 TD) likely to be out or severely banged up against the Colts, Bernard will have a heavy workload. WR Mohamed Sanu (27 rec, 354 yards, 3 TD) will again take over for Green as the No. 1 receiver for the Bengals in this game if he can’t go. He was outstanding against the Panthers and caught 10 passes for 120 yards and a touchdown.
This Colts defense is, however, very opportunistic. QB Andy Dalton (1,249 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) will really need to take care of the ball in this game. Dalton threw for 323 yards and two touchdowns in the tie against the Panthers, but he also tossed two costly interceptions. With Green out, Dalton needs to manage the game better. This defense started the year off well, but it has surrendered 40.0 PPG in its past two contests. The Bengals are allowing 141.4 rushing YPG (29th in NFL) and 257.4 passing YPG (22nd in NFL). These numbers are alarming with a red-hot offense next on the schedule.
The Colts are coming off their fourth straight victory and QB Andrew Luck (1,987 pass yards, 17 TD, 7 INT) has now passed for more than 300 yards in three straight games and five of six total games this year. Luck is moving his offense at a very high level and should have no problem throwing on a defense that has been lit up the past two weeks. RBs Ahmad Bradshaw (284 rush yards, 5 rec TD) and Trent Richardson (281 rush yards, 2 TD) will be huge factors in determining the outcome of this game. The Colts rushed for just 93 yards in their win over the Texans, but that total won’t fly in most games. They should have less trouble rushing against a poor Bengals’ run defense.
WR T.Y. Hilton (40 rec, 604 yards, 1 TD) has been on a tear for the Colts recently. Hilton caught nine passes for 223 yards and a touchdown in Houston on Thursday. That marked his second straight game with nine receptions, and he should be in for a big Sunday afternoon against this Bengals defense. The Colts are allowing just 107.5 rushing YPG (11th in NFL), and they’ll need to continue to be successful against the versatile Giovani Bernard. This defense is allowing 233.0 passing YPG (14th in NFL), which means they could have some trouble with Andy Dalton if he is able to limit his mistakes.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-3) at DETROIT LIONS (4-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Detroit -2.5, Total: 48
Opening Line & Total: Detroit -2.5, Total: 50
The Saints look to get back to .500 when they head to Ford Field on Sunday to take on the Lions.
New Orleans is coming off a bye, and the team is 5-0 (SU and ATS) with an extra week of rest over the past five seasons. Detroit went to Minnesota last week and won 17-3 while holding the Vikings to just 212 yards of total offense. Lions offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi should be able to help his defense prepare for the Saints high-octane offense, as he spent 2007 to 2013 as an offensive assistant/QB coach with New Orleans. These teams have played just 10 times since 1992, with the Saints going 7-3 (SU and ATS) in those contests. Since 1992, Detroit is 5-17 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. The Lions are also 10-28 ATS after having won three of their past four games in that time. The Saints, however, are 2-9 ATS in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the past two years. Both teams figure to be without their top pass catchers, as New Orleans TE Jimmy Graham (shoulder) and Detroit WR Calvin Johnson (ankle) are both doubtful to play.
New Orleans heads to Detroit with a chance to get its season back on track and the matchup should be a good one for QB Drew Brees (1,574 pass yards, 9 TD, 6 INT). Brees has dominated the Lions in his career, going 4-0 (SU and ATS) with 14 TD and 1 INT. He has also thrown for 379.2 yards per game in those contests. Unfortunately for Brees, this Lions defense is much improved, and TE Jimmy Graham (34 rec, 376 yards, 3 TD) will be out. One player who could help spark this offense is RB Mark Ingram (143 rush yards, 3 TD), who is returning from a hand injury he suffered early in the season. Ingram was a monster in the first two weeks of the year and he could significantly help this team in the red zone.
As good as New Orleans can be offensively, it will need to improve on the defensive end. The Saints are allowing 267.6 passing YPG (25th in NFL) and have now surrendered 34.5 PPG over their past two contests. The Lions are capable of putting up big offensive numbers, so New Orleans will need to make sure they’re disciplined defensively. They should benefit from Detroit playing without star WR Calvin Johnson (22 rec, 348 yards, 2 TD).
The Lions played an unbelievable game defensively in a 17-3 victory over the Vikings, and are now allowing just 197.2 passing yards per game (1st in NFL) and 73.5 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL). They have also held their past four opponents to a mere 11.0 points per game. While they are unlikely to completely stop the Saints offense, this is the best defensive team in the NFL, and they should be able to make life difficult for Drew Brees. QB Matthew Stafford (1,592 pass yards, 7 TD, 4 INT) will need to be better in this game than he has been against the Saints in his career. The Lions’ quarterback is 0-3 SU and ATS versus New Orleans under Sean Payton and has thrown only four touchdowns with six picks in those games.
With Calvin Johnson out, things won’t be easier for him. He’ll need to make high percentage throws, while looking for WR Golden Tate (38 rec, 495 yards, 1 TD) regularly. Tate has been the most reliable receiver for the Lions this season and he should be able to break free for a couple of big plays against this porous New Orleans secondary. RB Joique Bell (226 yards, 2 TD) will likely lead this backfield in carries once again, and his powerful style of running will open things up for Stafford to find his receivers. The Lions also expect to have elusive RB Reggie Bush (161 rush yards, 1 TD) back on the field after he missed last week with an ankle injury.
NEW YORK GIANTS (3-3) at DALLAS COWBOYS (5-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -6.5, Total: 48
Opening Line & Total: Dallas -5.5, Total: 48
The Cowboys look to win their sixth straight game when they host the Giants on Sunday.
While Dallas went into Seattle last week and stunned the Seahawks with a 30-23 victory, the Giants went to Philly and were blown out 27-0. Dallas has gotten the best of this rivalry recently, winning-and-covering in both games in 2013. The Cowboys are 3-1 SU and ATS versus New York over the previous two seasons, but the Giants had won-and-covered in four straight in Dallas before the Cowboys snapped that streak last season. New York QB Eli Manning has thrown for 335.6 yards per game with 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions in his past five games in Big D, while Dallas QB Tony Romo has struggled with 10 touchdowns and eight picks in those games.
The Giants are 49-29 ATS in road games off of a division game since 1992. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 11-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two years. New York will likely be without its top two skill players in WR Victor Cruz (knee, IR) and RB Rashad Jennings (knee, doubtful). Dallas could be thin on the defensive end with LB Bruce Carter (quad) and DE Tyrone Crawford (calf) both questionable.
The Giants went into their matchup with the Eagles on a three-game win streak, but were blown out and lost top WR Victor Cruz (23 rec, 337 yards, 1 TD) to a season-ending knee injury (torn right patellar tendon) in the process. QB Eli Manning (1,325 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) struggled in that game and couldn’t get his team to put up any points against a bad Philadelphia defense. He now turns his attention to a Cowboys team that he has had a lot of success against in the past. He’ll need to avoid turning the ball over in order to have his team in this game on the road. WR Odell Beckham Jr. (8 rec, 72 yards, 1 TD) will likely slot into Cruz’s position as the No. 1 wide receiver on this team. He should be able to use his freakish athleticism to get himself open against Dallas.
RB Andre Williams (228 yards, 2 TD) will likely start again for this team with RB Rashad Jennings hurting, and he will try to improve upon his 58 rushing yards on 16 carries in the loss to the Eagles. He’ll need to be quicker and more decisive going forward than he was in that game. This Giants defense had allowed just 17.0 PPG in their three games prior to playing the Eagles. It’s a good unit, but they can be beaten by this powerful Cowboys offense.
Dallas is the hottest team in the NFL after winning its fifth straight game in an impressive road victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. QB Tony Romo (1,510 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) has played very well this season and that didn’t change in Seattle, where he threw for 250 yards and zero interceptions. He should be able to find plenty of success against the Giants defense. WR Dez Bryant (36 rec, 437 yards, 4 TD) had just four catches for 64 yards in the win over the Seahawks, but he should be utilized way more often against the Giants. The Cowboys, however, will likely be going to the ground more often than they pass in this one. RB DeMarco Murray (785 yards, 6 TD) is the NFL’s leading rusher and has had at least 100 yards in every game this season.
The Giants struggled to contain Eagles RB LeSean McCoy last game and that will only get worse against Murray, who is the most complete running back in football right now. The Cowboys defense has been a lot better than expected this year, allowing just 227.5 passing yards per game (12th in NFL) and 115.0 rushing yards per game (17th in NFL). Dallas isn’t spectacular at defending either method of attack, but the club is solid at both. The Cowboys should be able to contain the Giants, who are without their starting running back and most talented wide receiver.
