Cnotes October's NFL Football Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[CNOTES]

Patriots host struggling Jets

October 14, 2014


NEW YORK JETS (1-5) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-2)
Kickoff: 8:25 p.m. EST
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: New England -9.5, Total: 46.5

The Jets look to avoid losing their sixth straight game when they head to Foxboro on Thursday night to face the Patriots.

New York is coming off of a 31-17 home loss against the Broncos, but New England has won two in a row, including a 37-22 road defeat of the Bills last week. The last time these two teams played was October 20, 2013, when the Jets won 30-27 as three-point home underdogs. Patriots QB Tom Brady did not throw for a touchdown in that game, but did throw an interception that was returned for a touchdown by Antonio Allen. Prior to that game, New England had won five straight games SU versus New York. Brady is 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS in his career when facing the Jets under Rex Ryan.

In the previous two seasons, New England is 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS, when hosting New York. Bill Belichick is 13-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of the Patriots, but the Jets are 16-6 ATS since 1992 after playing three straight games with a turnover margin of minus-1 or worse. CB Dee Milliner (Achilles) suffered a season-ending injury last week season for New York, while New England saw two starters leave with season-ending knee injuries, RB Stevan Ridley and LB Jerod Mayo.

The Jets (0-5-1 ATS) have now lost five straight games after their opening week victory over the Raiders. QB Geno Smith (1,139 pass yards, 6 TD, 7 INT) was solid in a lost to Denver last week, throwing for 190 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He’ll now face the Patriots in New England, where he threw for 214 yards with no touchdowns and a miserable three interceptions a season ago. The Jets would be wise to feed RB Chris Ivory (325 rush yards, 2 TD) in this game. The last time these teams met, Ivory rushed for 104 yards. He rushed 12 times for 52 yards in the game at New England last year as well. Ivory’s powerful style of running has been an issue for the Pats, and it’s also helped severely wear down the defensive line by the end of the game.

TE Jace Amaro (24 rec, 212 yards, 1 TD) figures to be a much bigger part of the passing game after a breakout performance against the Broncos. He caught 10 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown, and this should be more of a sign of things to come rather than a fluke, with Amaro being one of the only legitimate weapons in this offense. New York’s defense has now allowed 24+ points in five consecutive games. They’re allowing only 92.2 rushing yards per game (8th in NFL), but can’t stop teams when it matters most.

Everybody was ready to write off the Patriots just two weeks ago after they were crushed in Kansas City, but now they’ve won back-to-back games in impressive fashion. New England’s defense is allowing just 111.0 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL) and 208.5 passing yards per game (4th in NFL). They’ve allowed just 19.5 PPG over the past two weeks and could really cause problems for the erratic Geno Smith. Offensively, this team has scored 40.0 PPG over the past two weeks. QB Tom Brady (1,444 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT) has been on fire, throwing for six touchdowns and zero interceptions in that time.

Brady is also facing a Jets team that he has dominated in the past. Including playoffs, Brady is 19-6 SU in his career versus New York with 36 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions. He could be even more dominant against this horrible Jets secondary. With Brady turning his season around, TE Rob Gronkowski (26 rec, 341 yards, 4 TD) has also come to life. The tight end caught seven passes for 94 yards in the win over Buffalo. He’s a monster working the middle of the field and could pose some real serious problems for the Jets.

RB Shane Vereen (216 rush yards, 1 TD) will likely assume the bulk of the responsibilities in this running game with RB Stevan Ridley (340 rush yards, 2 TD) out for the season.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 7

October 15, 2014

Thursday, Oct. 16

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND...Rexy just 1-5 SU and vs. line TY. Belichick "over" trend resurfacing with "overs" last 3, now 48-21 "over" in reg. season since 2010. "Overs" 8-1 last nine meetings. "Over," based on 'totals" trends.


Sunday, Oct. 19

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS...Bengals 6-2-1 as away dog since 2012. Colts, however, now 5-1 vs. line TY after Houston win, and on 9-2 spread uptick since late 2013. Colts also "over" 6-1-1 last eight since late 2013. "Over" and Colts, based on team and "totals" trends

TENNESSEE at WASHINGTON...Teams combined 3-9 SU vs. line. Skins just 2-5 vs. spread last seven at home, but Tenn. no covers last 5 Y. Skins 7-15 vs. line last 22 on board. Slight to Titans, based on extended Skins spread woes.

MIAMI at CHICAGO...Early Dolphin trend to "over" (4-1) this season. Miami also 8-3 as dog since 2013 for Philbin. Bears 0-2 SU and vs. line at Solider Field TY and now 3-9 last 12 vs. spread as host. Bears also "over" 15-6-1 for Trestman. "Over" and Dolphins, based on "totals" and team trends.

CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE...Jags 1-5 vs. line. Also 1-8-1 last 10 as EverBank dog. But Gus won 32-28 at Cleveland LY. Brownies "over" 4-1 TY. "Over" and Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.

SEATTLE at ST. LOUIS...Hawks are 8-3 SU their last 11 away from CenturyLink and are 11-3-1 vs. line last 15 away from Seattle. Carroll 27-13-2 vs. spread since 2012 and 6-2 vs. line last 8 after SU loss. Series "under" 7-1 last 8. Seahawks and "under," based on team and series "totals" trends.

CAROLINA at GREEN BAY...Cam 9-2 as road dog since 2012 (2-1 TY) and "over" last 4 TY. Pack "over" 23-13 last 36 at home. "Over" and Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.

ATLANTA at BALTIMORE...Falcs 0-3 SU and vs. line away TY, now 1-10 SU and 2-9 vs. spread on road since LY. Flacco 9-4 vs. line last 13 at M&T Bank Stadium. Ravens also "over" 5-2 last eight at home. Ravens and "over," based on team and "totals" trends

at MINNESOTA at BUFFALO...Bills 2-5 vs. spread last seven in game subsequent to facing Patriots. Slight to Vikings, based on recent Bills trends.
NEW ORLEANS at DETROIT...Saints 1-4 vs. line TY, no wins or covers first three on road and have now dropped nine straight spread decisions on reg.-season road (1-8 SU those games; does not count 1-1 SU and 2-0 vs. line in playoffs road games LY). Lions "under" last 5 TY and 8 of 9 "under" since late 2013. Lions and "under," based on Saints road woes and "under" trends.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO...Andy Reid now 10-1 vs. line on road in regular season since taking over Chiefs LY (3-0 TY). But Bolts 10-2 last 12 vs. spread (L vs. KC at end last season). "Overs" last four in series. "Over" and Chiefs, based on "totals" and series trends.

NY GIANTS at DALLAS...Jerry Jones has won last 5 SU and 4-1 vs. line in those, but 7-15 vs. spread last 22 as host. G-Men are 4-1 SU and vs. line in new Jerry Stadium and road team 7-3 vs. line last 10 in series. "Over" last three meetings. Giants and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARIZONA at OAKLAND...Raiders 7-15-1 last 23 vs. mark at home. Arians 10-3-1 last 14 vs. line, 5-1 vs. line last 6 away. Cards, based on team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at DENVER...Harbaugh 7-4-1 as dog with Niners. SF "under" 7-2 last 9 since late 2013, Denver 1-2 vs. line at home TY but still 13-5 as reg.-season home chalk since 2012 and Manning arrival. Slight to "under" and Broncos, based on "totals' and team trends.


Monday, Oct. 20

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

HOUSTON at PITTSBURGH...Hou now 4-2 vs. line for O'Brien after Indy loss. Texans 2-1 vs. line away TY after 2-5-1 mark last season as visitor vs. number. Steel 0-2 vs. line as host TY, now also "over" 5-1 last six as host. "Over" and Texans, based on team and "totals" trends.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 7

Thursday, Oct. 16th

New York Jets at New England, 8:25 ET
NY Jets: 3-14 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
New England: 11-1 ATS off a division game


Sunday, Oct. 19th

Cincinnati at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 11-1 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Indianapolis: 15-5 ATS in home games

Tennessee at Washington, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 41-22 ATS in non-conference games
Washington: 30-48 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Miami at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Miami: 38-21 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Chicago: 6-15 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

Cleveland at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 1-6 ATS off a home win
Jacksonville: 2-10 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Seattle at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 22-9 ATS against conference opponents
St Louis: 17-33 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points

Carolina at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Green Bay: 45-27 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better

Atlanta at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS in road games in the first half of the season
Baltimore: 43-23 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored

Minnesota at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 57-36 OVER in weeks 5 through 9
Buffalo: 3-12 ATS after playing a game at home

New Orelans at Detroit, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 2-9 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Detroit: 50-73 ATS as a favorite

Kansas City at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Kansas City: 28-48 ATS when they allow 400 or more total yards
San Diego: 58-30 ATS when their defense forces 2 turnovers

New York Giants at Dallas, 4:25 ET
NY Giants: 49-29 ATS in road games off a division game
Dallas: 26-43 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Arizona at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Arizona: 21-7 ATS after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game
Oakland: 48-70 ATS off a division game

San Francisco at Denver, 8:30 ET
San Francisco: 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Denver: 11-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road


Monday, Oct. 20th

Houston at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Houston: 15-4 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games
Pittsburgh: 8-1 UNDER in October games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, October 16

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Thursday Night Football: Jets at Patriots
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New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10, 44)

Looking like a team whose time had passed just a couple of weeks ago, the New England Patriots are back atop the AFC East and preparing to face an opponent they have dominated in recent years. The Patriots aim to pad their division lead when they host the New York Jets on Thursday. New England has won six of the past seven meetings, but New York claimed a 30-27 overtime win in last season's second showdown.

The Patriots were all but counted out after a 41-14 drubbing by the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night in Week 4, but they've claimed two straight impressive victories, including a 37-22 win at Buffalo on Sunday to move to the top of the standings. While the Jets have lost five straight since a 19-14 win over Oakland in Week 1, they gave defending AFC champion Denver a scare before falling 31-17 on Sunday. The Patriots have won 32 straight home games against AFC opponents, the longest streak since the NFL merger in 1970.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: After opening at Patriots -9.5, the line has since shifted to -10 where it sits currently. The toal opened as 45, but has sinced dropped a point to 44.

INJURY REPORT: Jets - WR David Nelson (Ques-Ankle) Patriots - DL Dominique Easley (Ques-Shoulder), CB Brandon Browner (Ques-Ankle), LB Dont'a Hightower (Ques-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: Rain is suppose to be hitting Gillette Stadium hard from Wednesday night straight through till kickoff. Rain is supposed to open up right around kickoff and dropping 15 mm of rain. Winds are expected to be blowing between five and six mph.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-5 SU, 0-5-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U): New York ranks 30th in the league in total offense (303.3 yards per game) and last in passing (182.2) but coach Rex Ryan insists he is committed to second-year quarterback Geno Smith. Smith has thrown seven interceptions — at least one in every game — and has completed only 57.1 percent of his passes, so the Jets have leaned heavily on running backs Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson to power the offense. The Jets rank sixth in the league in total defense but 25th in scoring defense, largely because of unfavorable field position thanks to 12 giveaways.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): After a disastrous game against the Chiefs, Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense have come back to life the past two games, though the loss of running back Stevan Ridley is a big one. Shane Vereen becomes the featured back with Ridley out, but Brady might have to go to the air more often. The Patriots lead the NFL with a plus-9 turnover margin in large part because of an AFC-best seven interceptions and will try to force Smith into the type of poor decisions he is prone to make.

TRENDS:

*Jets are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
*Over is 14-3 in Patriots last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
*Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in New England.
*Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 57.48 percent of users are backing the Patriots -10, with 64.14 percent taking the over.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some NFL trends to ponder with Week 7 upon us........

-- Patriots covered eight of last 12 as a home favorite.

-- Saints failed to cover their last ten road games.

-- Bengals are 5-0-1 in last six games as a road underdog.

-- Green Bay covered once in last seven non-divisional games.

-- Falcons covered three of last eleven road games.

-- Jaguars are 4-14 vs spread in last 18 home games.

**********


Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Our bottom 5, top 8 in NFL..........

32) Raiders—You start a rookie QB and before his career is five games old, you fire his head coach? How is this anything but incompetent management?

31) Jaguars—They finally covered a spread this week, so there’s that. Jags have actually played better since Bortles has been the QB.

30) Jets—By not cutting Michael Vick after he admitted to not being prepared to play, it appears to me they’ve given up the ship. Vick was supposed to be a mentor of sorts for Geno Smith, but now it is obvious he is just stealing money. If I owned the Jets, I'd clean house on December 29, the day after the season ends.

29) Rams—Just win, baby. You are what you are and the Rams are 1-4, despite having runs of 21-0/21-0/14-0 in their last three games. There is talent here, but not much maturity and the upcoming schedule is tough.

28) Titans—They beat Jacksonville at home by 2. With Charlie Whitehurst under center. In my fantasy league, the best available WRs are mostly Titans, because no one trusts their QB’s to get them the ball.

8) Cardinals—Guy like Bruce Arians almost never got his chance to be an NFL head coach. Now that he has it in his early 60’s, he is making the most out of it. He is 14-7 as coach of the Redbirds, in a tough division.

7) Patriots—Injury to Mayo is big blow to a defense; injury to Ridley means that Brady will have to throw more. Can his OL protect him enough?

6) Colts—Won last four games after an 0-2 start, but four games with Titans/Jags won’t hurt either. Has any team ever had a more seamless transition from an all-time great at QB (Manning-to-Luck)?

5) Bengals—They visit Indy this week, are 0-1-1 since their bye/3-0 start. Lose this week and that missed 36-yard FG at end of Carolina game is going to hurt more and more.

4) Eagles—Chip Kelly is good for the NFL; he’s making other coaches think differently, which makes the game more interesting. How was this guy an assistant coach at New Hampshire for so long?

3) Cowboys—Cue the mute buttons for Sunday night highlight shows, if Dallas wins. “The NFL is better when the Cowboys are good”; that was said on TV Sunday night and Jerry Jones didn’t say it, a guy on ESPN did. I want to puke, but that’s how people think.

2) Broncos—How much $$ do you think Peyton Manning is worth? If a journeyman NBA player like Steve Kerr can donate $1M to U of Arizona, how much money must a megastar like Manning be worth?

1) Chargers—Last NFL QB to wear a number in the 20’s? John Hadl, who was at his best as a Charger in late 60’s/early 70’s, throwing to Lance Alworth. Hadl was later Steve Young’s coach in the USFL with the LA Express.

 

[CNOTES]

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL line moves

If it wasn't obvious before, quarterbacks are the most important position in football. Several line moves have supported this as bettors are bailing from teams with questionable QB situations this week.

We look at some of the biggest line moves as Sunday draws near, and talk to Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag about why those odds are moving and where they could end up come kickoff:

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills - Open: -5.5, Move: -4

After the three interception performance Teddy Bridgewater displayed last week, money hit the home faves early and often in this matchup. Despite the Bills losing three of their last four, Kyle Orton has proven to be a calming presence for the team since taking over the starting job.

"Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater will be making his first start on the road, it’s going to be interesting to see how he handles a very good Bills defense in a foreign environment," Stewart explains.


Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins - Open: -4, Move: -6

Uncertainty has fueled the action in this one as it is still unknown whether QB Jake Locker or QB Charlie Whitehurst will get the start for the Titans on Sunday. In Whitehurst's last two starts he has completed 61.3 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and no interceptions, but the public is far from eager to back the 32-year old journeyman backup.

"With sharps and the public now on both sides of this game, no real need to move it for now," Stewart tells Covers. "We’re assuming Whitehurst will go for the Titans, but if Locker is announced the starting QB then expect this line to move back down to 4.5 or even 4."


Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams - Open: +6.5, Move: +7.5

After opening at the Rams +6.5, it should come as no shock that it has since moved to +7.5. St. Louis was leading the 49ers 14-0 after the first quarter Monday night, then got promptly outscored 31-3.

"After the Rams got annihilated in the second half on Monday Night, we can’t imagine they’re going to draw much support going up against a Seahawks team off a tough loss last week," Stewart explains. "With nearly 85% of the action on the Seahawks...This will be the biggest decision of the weekend for us."


Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars - Open: +4, Move: +6

With a running game that ranks first in the NFL and an offense that has given up a league low two turnovers, the Browns have captures the eyes of bettors. Across the field from the Browns are the winless Jaguars who have been abysmal straight-up and against the spread.

"After seeing how well this team played against the Steelers last week, the public is fully backing the Browns in this game. With over 75% of the early action on the favorite, I don’t see us going back down unless we see some sharp action on the homedog," says Stewart.


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys - Open: -5, Move: -6.5

The Cowboys went to Qwest Field last week and shocked the world by winning in Seattle, only the second team to do that since the start of the 2012 season. However, Dallas has only gone 1-2 against the spread at home this season.

"As well as the Cowboys are playing, they have little to no home field advantage playing in Jerry’s World and their last home game QB Tony Romo had to go to a silent count because their was so much crowd noise against them," Stewart tells Covers.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 8

Thurs, Oct. 16

Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh, 7:30 ET
Virginia Tech: 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games off a road win
Pittsburgh: 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) in home games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games

Utah at Oregon State, 10:00 ET
Utah: 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) after a bye week
Oregon State: 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins


Fri, Oct. 17

Fresno State at Boise State, 8:00 ET
Fresno St: 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Boise St: 56-31 ATS (+21.9 Units) after playing 2 straight conference games

Temple at Houston, 9:00 ET
Temple: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog
Houston: 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins


Sat, Oct. 18

Marshall at Florida International, 6:00 ET
Marshall: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game
Florida Int: 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses

Syracuse at Wake Forest, 12:00 ET
Syracuse: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival
Wake Forest: 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

Miami Ohio at Northern Illinois, 5:00 ET
Miami OH: 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games
N Illinois: 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9

Akron at Ohio, 2:00 ET
Akron: 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) against conference opponents
Ohio: 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents

Purdue at Minnesota, 12:00 ET
Purdue: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored
Minnesota: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in the second half of the season

Iowa at Maryland, 12:00 ET
Iowa: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games
Maryland: 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games after a loss by 28 or more points

Baylor at West Virginia, 12:00 ET
Baylor: 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 63
W Virginia: 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

Virginia at Duke, 12:30 ET
Virginia: 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games
Duke: 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a favorite

Georgia Tech at North Carolina, 7:00 ET
Georgia Tech: 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games
N Carolina: 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

North Carolina State at Louisville, 3:30 ET
N Carolina St: 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders
Louisville: 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49

Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts, 3:00 ET
E Michigan: 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) off a home win
Mass: 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest

Western Michigan at Bowling Green, 2:00 ET
W Michigan: 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday
Bowling Green: 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games

Ball State at Central Michigan, 3:30 ET
Ball St: 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game
C Michigan: 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) as a home favorite

Georgia at Arkansas, 4:00 ET
Georgia: 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
Arkansas: 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

San Jose State at Wyoming, 4:00 ET
San Jose St: 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after playing a game at home
Wyoming: 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after the first month of the season

New Mexico at Air Force, 3:30 ET
New Mexico: 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Air Force: 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in all games

South Florida at Tulsa, 12:00 ET
S Florida: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite
Tulsa: 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56

Tex San Antonio at Louisiana Tech, 12:00 ET
Tex San Antonio: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Louisiana Tech: 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival

Southern Miss at North Texas, 7:00 ET
S Miss: 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all lined games
N Texas: 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56

Cincinnati at SMU, 3:30 ET
Cincinnati: 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games
SMU: 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more

Appalachian State at Troy, 3:00 ET
Appalachian St: 1-6 ATS as an underdog
Troy: 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) as a favorite

Nevada at BYU, 10:15 ET
Nevada: 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games
BYU: 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Army at Kent State, 3:30 ET
Army: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games
Kent State: 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games

Stanford at Arizona State, 10:30 ET
Stanford: 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival
Arizona St: 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Washington at Oregon, 8:00 ET
Washington: 26-11 OVER (+13.9 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9
Oregon: 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9

UCLA at California, 3:30 ET
UCLA: 30-16 UNDER (+12.4 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game
California: 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against conference opponents

UAB at Mid Tennessee State, 3:30 ET
UAB: 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival
Mid Tenn State: 17-6 UNDER (+10.4 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game

Rutgers at Ohio State, 3:30 ET
Rutgers: 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Ohio State: 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in home games off a road win

Texas AM at Alabama, 3:30 ET
Texas AM: 17-5 OVER (+11.5 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite
Alabama: 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63

Colorado at USC, 6:00 ET
Colorado: 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs
USC: 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins

Michigan State at Indiana, 3:30 ET
Michigan St: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival
Indiana: 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game

Clemson at Boston College, 3:30 ET
Clemson: 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games
Boston College: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game

Kansas State at Oklahoma, 12:00 ET
Kansas State: 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after playing a conference game
Oklahoma: 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

New Mexico State at Idaho, 5:00 ET
New Mexico St: 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games
Idaho: 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) as a favorite

Georgia State at South Alabama, 7:30 ET
Georgia State: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games
South Alabama: 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in October games

Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic, 12:00 ET
W Kentucky: 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Florida ATL: 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) off a road loss

Utah State at Colorado State, 7:00 ET
Utah St: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games
Colorado St: 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite

Tennessee at Mississippi, 7:00 ET
Tennessee: 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9
Mississippi: 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games

Iowa State at Texas, 8:00 ET
Iowa St: 11-30 ATS (-22.0 Units) after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Texas: 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Missouri at Florida, 7:00 ET
Missouri: 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) off a home loss by 14 or more points
Florida: 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games after a loss by 6 or less points

Kansas at Texas Tech, 3:30 ET
Kansas: 42-66 ATS (-30.6 Units) in road lined games
Texas Tech: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Oklahoma State at TCU, 4:00 ET
Oklahoma State: 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival
TCU: 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Tulane at Central Florida, 12:00 ET
Tulane: 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after scoring and allowing 17 or less points
Central Florida: 19-8 OVER (+10.2 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Nebraska at Northwestern, 7:30 ET
Nebraska: 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers
Northwestern: 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders

Kentucky at LSU, 7:30 ET
Kentucky: 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents
LSU: 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after a 2 game road trip

Notre Dame at Florida St, 8:00 ET
Notre Dame: 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9
Florida St: 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins

Hawaii at San Diego St, 10:30 ET
Hawaii: 81-55 OVER (+20.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday
San Diego St: 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games

 

[CNOTES]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences

Team to watch: Boise State Broncos (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)

This week: -17 vs. Fresno State

Their most recent game on Oct. 4 saw the Broncos post a season-high 51 points in a win at Nevada as Grant Hedrick threw for 346 yards and Jay Ajayi rushed for 116 of his 152 yards in the second half.

Boise State also welcomed the return of cornerback Cleshawn Page, who had missed three games (knee). Page played sparingly in the first half as a backup but was in there full time in the second. It will not hurt Page or any other Bronco that the team is coming off a bye week.

“I think it came at a really good time,” Hedrick assured, “to get guys rested up a little bit. We (can) kind of focus back on the fundamentals of the game and catch our breath.”

Meanwhile, Fresno State gave up more than 50 points in its first three games and allowed 30 last week during a loss to UNLV as a 10-point favorite. Don’t be fooled by the Bulldogs’ defensive performance against San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey on Oct. 3 (season-low 3.9 yards per carry on 24 attempts). The Aztecs started a true freshman at quarterback and—very much unlike Boise State—had no semblance of a passing game to keep the defense honest.

Team to beware: Appalachian State Mountaineers (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS)

This week: +7 at Troy

A few weeks ago, head coach Scott Satterfield started picking up the pace right away in practices and jumping straight into game situations. His hope was to end a trend of slow starts. It has not worked. Appalachian State fell behind South Alabama 20-0 midway through the second quarter of a blowout loss Oct. 4 and it trailed Liberty 14-7 after one quarter last weekend en route to a 55-48 overtime heartbreaker.

Troy, on the other hand, appears to be playing inspired football in the wake of head coach Larry Blakeney’s announcement last Monday that he will retire at the end of this season. The Trojans responded by winning their first game of 2014, 41-24 over New Mexico State.

App State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 0-4 ATS in its last four overall. Troy is 4-0 ATS in its last four against the Sun Belt.

Total team: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (4-3 SU, 5-1-1 O/U)

This week: vs. UAB

Middle Tennessee has made 32 trips to the red zone this season and has scored on 29 of those occasions—including 21 touchdowns. That’s part of the reason why the over is 6-1 ATS in the Blue Raiders’ last seven home games.

UAB’s defense is made to go over the total. It gives up plenty of points (an average of 31.3 in its last three outings), but it has also been known to make the big play. The unit scored a whopping three touchdowns in last weekend’s win over North Texas, two on interceptions and one after a fumble recovery.

The over is 7-0 in the Blazers’ last seven Conference USA games and 5-0 in their last five on the road.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Thursday, October 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Utah at Oregon State
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Utah Utes at Oregon State Beavers (+2.5, 52.5)

Utah quarterback Kendal Thompson is expected to make his first start Thursday when the Utes visit Oregon State, which won last season’s meeting 51-48 in overtime. Thompson, who transferred in the offseason from Oklahoma, replaced an inefficient Travis Wilson and rushed for 83 yards to spark No. 23 Utah’s 30-28 upset of UCLA on Oct. 4. Utes coach Kyle Whittingham hasn’t named a starter for Thursday, but all signs point to Thompson getting the nod.

After opening Pac-12 play with a 35-10 loss at USC, Oregon State bounced back from a with a 36-31 victory at Colorado on Oct. 4. Beavers senior quarterback Sean Mannion threw five touchdowns in last year’s win over Utah, but brings a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio into this season’s matchup. While Mannion and his young receiving corps has struggled throughout the first half of the season, Oregon State ranks second in the Pac-12 in total defense at 331.4 yards allowed per game.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: Utah opened as 2-point road favorites and were bet as high as -3, before settling at -2.5. The total opened at 52 and is now up to 52.5.

INJURY REPORT: Oregon State - OL Garrett Weinreich (questionable Thursday, knee). Utah - N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It will be mostly cloudy at kickoff with seven mile per hour wind blowing towards the northwest endzone. There will be a slight nine percent chance of rain.

POWER RANKINGS: Utah (-10.5) - Oregon State (-4) + home field (-3) = Oregon State +3.5

ABOUT UTAH (4-1, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Running back Devontae Booker had 156 yards on 33 carries against UCLA and could post similar numbers against an Oregon State front seven that is missing two injured starters. The Utes’ defense leads the nation in sacks (5.6 per game) and tackles for loss (10.2 per game), and defensive end Nate Orchard ranks first in the country with 8.5 sacks. The Utes boast one of the top special teams units in the country, led by kicker Andy Phillips and kick returner Kaelin Clay, who leads the Pac-12 in punt return average (23.1).

ABOUT OREGON STATE (4-1, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Terron Ward provided a boost for the Beavers’ offense with 102 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Colorado, but Mannion has struggled at times while waiting for receivers such as Victor Bolden and Richard Mullaney to become consistent downfield threats. The Beavers rank second in the league in passing efficiency defense, led by linebackers Michael Doctor, D.J. Alexander and Jabral Johnson. Kicker Trevor Romaine has been on a tear since missing the first two games, going 8-for-8 on extra points and 4-for-4 on field goals, including a 47-yarder.

TRENDS:

* Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Utah is 4-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 7-1 in Utah's last eight games versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Oregon State's last six home games.

CONSENSUS: Just under 52 percent of wagers are backing Utah at -2.5.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Thursday's games
Underdogs covered six of last seven Va Tech-Pitt games, winning four of last five SU; Hokies lost last three visits here, by 18-3-31 points, as Pitt won four of last five series games. Tech already won at Ohio State and North Carolina; win at OSU was its first cover in last seven tries as road underdog. Pitt lost last three games, including a horrible loss to Akron at home; they're 0-2 as home favorites this year, 5-4 under Chryst. ACC home favorites are 6-8 vs spread in conference play.

Home side won four of last five Utah-Oregon State games; Utes lost last two visits here 21-7/24-7- they got upset 51-48 at home by Beavers LY. Utah has road wins at Michigan/UCLA; they've failed to cover last four tries as road favorites. OSU is 2-4 in last six tries as home dog; they gave up 66 points in splitting last two games (won 36-31 at Colorado)- they beat San Diego State in only I-A home game. Underdogs are 12-4 vs spread in Pac-12 conference games, 4-2 at home.

 

[CNOTES]

October's Rated and Opinons Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/13/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

10/12/14 14-*12-*0 53.85% +*400 Detail

10/09/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/06/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 26-*33-*1 44.07% -*5150

Rated Plays:

2 - 6 .................................*****

6 - 3 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

6 - 11 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

2 - 2 ................................BLOW OUTS



Thursday, October 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount


N.Y. Jets - 8:25 PM ET New England -10 500 BLOW OUT ( DBABPT = DON'T BET AGANIST BRADY ON PRIME TIME )

New England - Under 44 500 TRIPLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

October's Rated and Opinons Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/16/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/13/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

10/12/14 14-*12-*0 53.85% +*400 Detail

10/09/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/06/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 26-*35-*1 42.62% -*6250

Rated Plays:

2 - 6 .................................*****

6 - 3 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

6 - 12 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

2 - 3 ................................BLOW OUTS

 

[CNOTES]

Sharp Moves - Week 7

October 16, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 7!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Thursday night.

(Rotation #460) St. Louis +7 – Though there has been some line movement in the direction of the Seahawks, it certainly doesn't warrant the stunning 90 percent of the bets which have come in on Seattle this week. The Rams just haven't played to their best this year, but this is a team which always plays at a really high level in these divisional games. Heck, St. Louis is just six days removed from being up two touchdowns on the San Francisco 49ers. Many just make the assumption that the Seahawks are going to come out angry about their loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys and whoop up on a suspect team, but this is a heck of a lot of points to be giving a team that’s generally is tough to blow out; especially in its own house.

Opening Line: St. Louis +6.5
Current Line: St. Louis +7
Public Betting Percentage: 90% on Seattle

(Rotation #468) Detroit -3 – A rare situation where a home team and a favored team is sharp for sure. For some reason, bettors still believe in the Saints even though TE Jimmy Graham is out of the lineup, handicapping QB Drew Brees by taking away his favorite target. The Lions are getting healthy, though they are still without WR Calvin Johnson, and most believe that the Detroit offense begins and ends with Megatron. There's some merit to that for sure, but this is basically going to be the fourth game without Megatron out there, and there is some talent to be had in Motown. It's the Detroit defense which has our eye though, as this defensive line is one of the best in the league. The Lions have the better of these two teams, but neither the betting line nor the reaction from the general public suggests that to be the case.

Opening Line: Detroit -2.5
Current Line: Detroit -3
Public Betting Percentage: 61% on New Orleans

(Rotation #474) Oakland +3.5 – The Raiders are once again on our list of sharp picks for the third straight week, and this is probably as sharp a play as we’ve seen all year long. Sharp bettors have been losing, but they’re playing the percentages and lining up to bet against an Arizona team which is overrated at 4-1. The Raiders should have won last week against San Diego, but stupid mistakes cost them in the end. Those dumb mistakes will work themselves out week after week, and in the end, Oakland is ultimately going to win games like these more often than not. In Sparano we trust!

Opening Line: Oakland +4
Current Line: Oakland +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 84% on Arizona

 

[CNOTES]

Week 7 Tip Sheet

October 17, 2014

Bengals at Colts (-3, 49 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- Cincinnati’s 11-game regular season home winning streak came to a halt in a 37-37 tie against Carolina, as the Bengals failed to cover as seven-point favorites. The Bengals are winless in the last two games following a 3-0 start, allowing 80 points against the Patriots and Panthers after giving up just 33 points in the first three weeks.
-- The Colts improved to 3-0 in AFC South play after holding off the Texans, 33-28 as 2 ½-point road favorites to win and cover for the fourth straight game. Indianapolis put things on cruise control after grabbing a 24-0 lead in the first quarter at Houston, while Andrew Luck eclipsed the 300-yard mark for the fifth time in six games.

Previous meeting: The Bengals ripped up the Colts last December at home, 42-28 to easily cash as seven-point favorites. Cincinnati jumped out to a 14-0 halftime lead, as the Bengals overcame four touchdown passes by Luck to improve to 9-4 on the season. The home team has won each of the past five matchups, as Andy Dalton is 2-0 in his career against Indianapolis.

What to watch for: The Colts have been a terrific ‘over’ team, hitting in five of six games, including a 2-1 ‘over’ mark at Lucas Oil Stadium. However, Indianapolis owns an average 5-5 ATS record as a home favorite since the start of the 2013 season. The Bengals have put together a 6-2 ATS mark since the middle of 2012 following a loss/tie, but five of those covers came at home.

Panthers at Packers (-7, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- The Panthers forged a 37-37 tie with the Bengals, as no team led by more than seven points in the game. Carolina grabbed the cover as seven-point underdogs, improving to 2-1 ATS on the highway. However, the Panthers remained winless against AFC North foes this season (0-2-1 SU), while allowing at least 37 points in each interconference contest.
-- The Packers rallied past the Dolphins, 27-24 on a late touchdown pass by Aaron Rodgers to lift Green Bay to its third straight win. After the line dropped from three to 1 ½, bettors that waited until Sunday won with the Packers, as Green Bay has won each of its past two road games since an 0-2 start away from Lambeau Field.

Previous meeting: Green Bay held off Carolina as 10 ½-point road favorites in Week 2 of the 2011 season, 30-23. Cam Newton made his Panthers’ home debut by throwing for 432 yards, but was intercepted three times. Carolina managed the cover with a late touchdown run by Newton, as the Panthers blew an early 13-0 lead. The Panthers won in their past visit to Lambeau Field in 2008 by outlasting the Packers, 35-31.

What to watch for: The Packers own a strong 9-1 SU/ATS record in the last 10 games as a home favorite started and ended by Aaron Rodgers (taking away the game he was injured in the first quarter against Chicago last season). Carolina has compiled a 9-2 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog since 2012, while going ‘under’ the total in five of the past seven away contests.

Saints at Lions (-3, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- New Orleans returns from the bye week following a dramatic comeback against Tampa Bay in Week 5, but failed to cover as 11-point favorites. The Saints saved many “suicide pool” contestants by erasing a 31-20 deficit to beat the Bucs in overtime, 37-31, overcoming three interceptions by Drew Brees to win just their second game of the season.
-- The Lions continue to play terrific defense, allowing 17 points or fewer for the fifth time in six games as Detroit took care of Minnesota, 17-3 as one-point road underdogs. Detroit’s defense picked off Teddy Bridgewater three times, while the Lions improved to 2-0 in NFC North action.

Previous meeting: The Saints eliminated the Lions in the Wild Card round of the 2011 playoffs at the Superdome, 45-28 as 10 ½-point favorites. Brees torched the Lions for 466 yards and three touchdown passes, as the Saints have won each of the last four meetings with Detroit by double-digits each. New Orleans makes its first trip to Ford Field since late in the 2008 season, when the Saints left with a 42-7 blowout of the Lions.

What to watch for: Since going ‘over’ in their opener, Detroit has cashed the ‘under’ in five straight games, but hasn’t scored more than 19 points in each of its past two home contests. The Saints are listed as an underdog for the first time this season (1-4 ATS), while going 3-3 ATS last season when receiving points (2-0 ATS in playoffs).

Chiefs at Chargers (-4, 45) – 4:05 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- Kansas City is fresh off the bye as it heads back to the West Coast after dropping a 22-17 decision at San Francisco in Week 5 as 4 ½-point ‘dogs. The Chiefs racked up just 265 yards offensively in quarterback Alex Smith’s return to San Francisco, as Kansas City failed to score a point in the final 27 minutes of regulation after taking a 17-13 third quarter lead.
-- The Chargers won their fifth consecutive game after rallying late at Oakland, 31-28. San Diego failed to cover as 7 ½-point favorites, the first ATS loss for the Lightning Bolts this season in six tries. The Chargers have eclipsed the 30-point mark in three straight contests and four times in six games.

Previous meeting: San Diego swept the season series in 2013 by winning each game by three points each. The Chargers outlasted the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium as short ‘dogs, 41-38, then clinched a playoff berth in Week 17 in overtime, 27-24, even though Kansas City covered as 15 ½-point underdogs with many of their starters out. The Chiefs have lost six straight visits to Qualcomm Stadium, with the last victory coming in 2007 as 12-point underdogs.

What to watch for: The Chargers have covered five of their past six home games dating back to last season, while cashing the ‘over’ in four of the last six home contests against divisional foes (one ‘under’ closed at 56 against Denver). In Andy Reid’s career coaching the Eagles and Chiefs, he has won 13 of 15 games off the bye week, but one of those losses came in Reid’s debut season of 2013 against the Broncos.

Giants at Cowboys (-6 ½, 48) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- The Giants put together an effort to forget in a 27-0 rout at the hands of the Eagles, while losing top receiver Victor Cruz for the season with a right knee injury. New York’s three-game winning streak came to a screeching halt, as all three losses for the Giants this season have come by double-digits.
-- The Cowboys keep cruising along, grabbing their fifth consecutive victory in a 30-23 upset at Seattle as 10-point underdogs to improve to 3-0 on the highway. What made this win even more impressive for Dallas was overcoming a 10-0 deficit against a team that had lost one home game since the start of 2012 prior to last Sunday.

Previous meeting: Dallas took both matchups from New York last season, including a 36-31 shootout victory in the season opener. That victory by the Cowboys snapped a four-game home losing streak to the Giants that dated back to 2009, as the last five contests played in Dallas have sailed ‘over’ the total.

What to watch for: Following a three-year stretch in which the Cowboys put together a dreadful 3-16 ATS record as a home favorite from 2010-2012, Dallas has somewhat improved in that role since 2013 with a 3-4 ATS mark. One of those non-covers came in a Week 5 overtime victory over Houston, while going 3-5 SU/ATS in the past eight home games against division foes. The Giants used to be a strong play as a road underdog (9-3-1 ATS from 2011-12), but New York owns a below average 4-5 ATS mark in this role since 2013.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Some NFL trends to ponder with Week 7 upon us........

-- Chargers covered four of last five as a home favorite.

-- Giants covered six of last eight as a divisional underdog.

-- Denver is 13-5 in last 18 games as a home favorite.

-- Dolphins are 5-9 in last 14 games as a road underdog.

-- St Louis is 6-2 in last eight games as a divisional home dog.

-- Washington covered twice in its last seven home games.

**********


Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend........

13) Chiefs-Chargers is an interesting game out west; Bolts have dominated series lately, but their two wins over KC last year were both by a FG.

12) Baylor lost 70-63 the last time they visited Morgantown; they beat WVU 73-42 LY in Waco. Bears gained over 1,500 total yards in the two games. Not sure why, but WVU coach Holgorsen has cooler full of Red Bull on his sidelines during games, just for him.

11) Bengals are 0-1-1 since their bye, which came at a bad time, when they were 3-0. Colts won their last four games after an 0-2 start. This will be a fun game.

10) UCLA is favored at Cal, but Bruins lost their last seven visits to Berkeley, the last five by 14+ points. If they lose this week, especially with UCLA coming off a loss, it’ll be a major upset.

9) Falcons’ owner Arthur Blank was quoted this week as being unhappy with his team’s 2-4 start, which makes sense, but given how dreadful Atlanta’s defense has been, will heads roll if Atlanta doesn’t make the playoffs this year?

8) Royals-Giants World Series will be first time since 1918 (in a non-strike year) that neither World Series team will have won 90 regular season games. Royals are like Colorado was a few years ago, getting very hot at the perfect time.

7) Saints are 0-10 vs spread in last ten road games; they visit defensively-stout Detroit, which is struggling on offense with star WR Calvin Johnson hobbled.

6) Last three Nebraska-Northwestern games were decided by total of seven points; Wildcats collapsed at end of LY’s game, blowing big second half lead to Nebraska. Can they beat the Cornhuskers this year?

5) Dallas won its last five games; Murray has chance to be first RB ever to start season with seven 100+-yard games. Can Giants protect Eli? If not, this’ll be a long day for Big Blue.

4) Kentucky is improved, which is a good thing, seeing as they lost their last three visits to LSU by combined score of 118-7. Tigers are young and slowly getting better; you better get ‘em this year.

3) Carson Palmer leads the 4-1 Cardinals into Oakland, where he played in 2011-12. Rookie QB Carr played his best game in near-miss vs Chargers last week. This is a game the first-place Cardinals have to win, to stay ahead of favored 49ers/Seahawks.

2) Sure is a lot of drama around the Florida State program, kind of like UNLV’s old basketball teams; lot of drama, but they just keep on winning. Notre Dame gave up 43 points at home to North Carolina last week; what will Heisman Trophy winner Winston hang on them? What were the odds of a TE named O’Leary playing for FSU and not the Fighting Irish?

1) Patrick Willis won’t play when the 49ers visit Denver this week, bad news for a 49er defense playing on short week after their strong second half showing in St Louis. Broncos are 2-0 since their bye, scoring 72 points.

 

[CNOTES]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 7 line moves

Lines for Week 7 of the NFL season have been juking and jiving since late Sunday night. We look at some of the most notable line adjustments and get insight into the action from Scott Kaminsky of TheGreek.com.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions – Open: 52, Move: 47

At first glance, a matchup between these two teams would demand nothing but Over action. However, with Detroit’s offense sputtering along and the Saints’ struggles on the road, most of the money has walked this number down as much as five points heading into the weekend.

“In hindsight, we opened this total too high due to the fact both teams look like they are going to be missing their big weapons in (Jimmy) Graham and (Calvin) Johnson respectively,” says Kaminsky. “Also throw in the fact Detroit leads the league in defense. The wildcard factor here is how bad New Orleans’ defense is. We moved it rather quickly so we don't have a lot of liability due to those factors.”


Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins – Open: -4, Move: -6

Books opened Washington as a 4-point home favorite against a Titans squad starting backup QB Charlie Whitehurst again. Tennessee is coming off a victory over Jacksonville, which is far from enough to convince bettors to back them on the road in Week 7 – even against a Redskins team that has lost four in a row (1-3 ATS).

“It seems a little on the high side considering Washington has only have one win and that was against Jacksonville,” says Kaminsky. “Tennessee hasn't fared much better but they do have an impressive win over Kansas City and have been competitive against similar competition against weakfish teams like the Redskins. We will need Tennessee to cover here come kickoff.”


Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +4, Move: +6

Behind the Cowboys, the Browns were the most talked-about team in the NFL this week. Cleveland is off back-to-back wins and is 3-0-2 ATS on the year. Early money jumped Cleveland in this road game, pushing the spread to the key number of six. However, buy back took the Jaguars there and has this spread bouncing between Cleveland -5 and the half-point hook.

“The Browns offense has been one of the more surprising aspects thus far ranking 10th in points scored,” notes Kaminsky.


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -5, Move: -7

This game opened with New York as a 5-point road underdog after Dallas invaded CenturyLink Field and took a win from the 12th Man in Week 6. Then the G-Men were promptly handed their own asses in a 27-0 blanking versus Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football. The line quickly jumped to a touchdown at some spot with money on the red-hot Cowboys.

“The X-factor here is the Dallas defense, which ranks ninth in points allowed. Put that together with their league leading rushing and the fact the Giants have suddenly had a relapse for the worse, and we are expecting the Cowboys to win easily,” says Kaminsky. “After opening the game Dallas -5.5 we kept the side on the high side compared to the market, drawing Giant money and will need the Cowboys in this game.”

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Bengals (3-1-1) @ Colts (4-2)— Home side won eight of last nine series games, including last five in row; Bengals lost last six visits here, with all six by 6+ points, four of six by 13+ points, but they did beat Colts 42-28 at home LY. Cincy is 0-1-1 since its bye after a 3-0 start; they missed 36-yard FG to win on last play of OT last week, almost overcoming 116 penalty yards by converting 10-16 on third down. Indy won four in row after 0-2 start, scoring 38+ points in three of four games; they’re 30 for 50 on third down in last four games (8 of 25 in first two). Indy is 7-6 as home favorite under Pagano, 2-1 this year. Bengals are 7-3-2 vs spread in last dozen games as a road underdog. Four of last five Colt games went over the total.

Titans (2-4) @ Redskins (1-5)—Both teams struggling badly; Titans snapped 4-game skid last week with 16-14 win over winless Jags- their last two games were decided by total of three points. Tennessee lost last two road games by combined score of 74-24. Redskins lost last four games, allowing 34.8 ppg; they’ve lost field position in last three games by 25-18-15 yards- four of their five losses are by 10+ points. Home side lost last four series games; six of last ten series games were decided by 3 or less points. Titans won last two visits here, 27-21/25-22. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-5. Four of last five Washington games went over. Redskins are 5-10 in last 15 games as a home fave.

Dolphins (2-3) @ Bears (3-3)—Chicago turned ball over nine times in its three losses (-2/-2/-1), one time in its three wins (+4/+2/+1); they lost both home games, to Bills/Packers, as road team won five of their six games this season. Since 2007, Chicago is 12-20-1 as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; they’re 4-3 in last seven games vs Miami, but lost three of four here, with only win in 1988. Dolphins lost three of last four games, giving up winning score to Pack last week with 0:03 left; they’ve turned ball over 3+ times in three of their five games. Chicago is 0-3 scoring less than 27 points. Fish are 27-14-1 as road underdogs since ’08, 7-7 under Philbin. Four of Miami games went over total, as have three of last four Bear games.

Browns (3-2) @ Jaguars (0-6)—Huge trap game for improved Browns, coming off rare win vs rival Steelers. Winning point scored in last 1:09 in four of five Cleveland games; their two road games (1-1) were decided by total of four points. Over last decade, Browns are 6-1 when favored on road; they’ve run ball for33 yards in last two games. Jaguars got first cover of season last week; since ’10 they’re 6-20-1 as home dogs, 0-2 this season, losing by 27-8 points, but they allowed total of only 33 points in last two games. Last eight Brown-Jaguar games were decided by 6 or less points. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 5-2-2 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 3-5 out of division. Four of five Cleveland games went over the total.

Seahawks (3-2) @ Rams (1-4)—Rams won 27-20 at Seattle in ’04 playoffs; since then, St Louis is 2-16 against the Seahawks, scoring an average of 9.5 ppg in their last six series losses- teams split last four games played here. Rams lost last three games overall, despite having a spurt of at least 14-0 in each game; St Louis has spurts where they play very well, but then they undo it with huge mistakes at bad times (see last 0:30 of 1st half Monday). Since 2007, they’re 17-25 as home underdogs. Seattle has only four takeaways in five games but is still +1 in turnovers; they’ve allowed 7.2+ ypa in three of last four games- they’ve covered six of last nine games as road favorites. NFL-wide, home underdogs in division games are 4-7 against the spread.

Panthers (3-2-1) @ Packers (4-2)—Carolina is 3-0-1 when they get 2+ takeaways in a game, scoring 28 ppg; they scored 19-10 points in losing both games with no takeaways. Panthers covered nine of last 11 tries as a road dog- they’re 1-1-1 SU on road, losing 38-10 in Baltimore. Packers won last three games by 21-32-3 points, after 1-2 start; they’ve scored 13 TD’s on last 29 drives, after scoring six on first 30 this season. Pack is 15-9 as home favorites since ’11, 1-1 this season. GB is 8-4 in this series, 3-2 here; average total in last four series games is 57.0. NFC South road teams are 2-6-1 vs spread on road; NFC North non-conference favorites are 3-2. Last four Carolina games, five of six Packer games went over the total.

Falcons (2-4) @ Ravens (4-2)—Atlanta lost last three games, allowing 32.7 ppg; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 14-13-10 points while allowing 31.7 ppg (10 TD’s on 31 drives); foes are 22 of last 43 on 3rd down. Falcons covered three of last 10 tries as road dogs. Three of four Raven wins are by 20+ points; they’re 16-8-2 vs spread in NFC games under Harbaugh- they were held to 16-13 points in two losses. Atlanta hasn’t held anyone under 24 points this year. Teams split four series games, with three of four decided by 6 or less points; Falcons lost 24-10 in only visit here, in 2006. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 1-4-1 vs spread; AFC North favorites are 5-2-2 outside their division. Three of last four Raven games went over total.

Vikings (2-4) @ Bills (3-3)—Buffalo lost three of last four games after 2-0 start, losing last two home games by 12-15 points; they’ve run ball 45 times for only 117 yards in last two games, are 6-4 in last 10 games as home favorite, 1-1 this year- two of its three wins are by FG over NFC North teams. Minnesota lost four of last five games while starting three different QB’s, losing last two games by combined 59-13; they turned ball over 3+times in three of four losses, had no takeaways in 4th loss- they were +2 in both wins. Vikings are 8-4 in series games, winning four of six in both cities; they scored 31+ points in four of last five series games- they’re 18-21-1 in last 40 games as a road underdog, 1-2 this season, 6-11 in last 17 games vs AFC foes.

Saints (2-3) @ Lions (4-2)- New Orleans is 0-3 on road this year (allowing 33.7 ppg), 0-10 vs spread in last 10 games on foreign soil, but they’ve won last five post-bye games, scoring average of 40.2 ppg- four of those five were at home. Star TE Graham (shoulder) is expected to miss this game. Saints are allowing 145 rushing yards per road game. Detroit allowed total of only 34 points in last four games, allowing one TD on foes’ last 26 drives. All this despite Lions converting just 2 for last 29 on third down; their offense isn’t good with WR Johnson out. Saints won last four series games, scoring 40.8 ppg, but this is their first visit to Motor City since 2008. Lions Last five Detroit games stayed under total; four of five Saint games went over.

Chiefs (2-3) @ Chargers (5-1)—San Diego won 11 of last 13 series games, including last four in row, winning both games LY by three points each; Chiefs lost last six visits here, with three of six by exactly 3 points. Chargers won their last five games overall (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-0 as home favorites this year, winning by 9-19-31 points at home- Bolts are 8-3 vs spread at home under McCoy, 4-1 when favored. KC covered its last four games, winning two of last three after 0-2 start; they scored 17 or less points in losses, 34+ in wins. Chargers held four of six opponents to 18 or less points. Chiefs lost four of last five post-bye games, with three of four losses by 10+; they’re 3-0 as road dogs this year, 5-1 overall under Reid.

Giants (3-3) @ Cowboys (5-1)— Underdogs are 26-8 vs spread in Cowboy home games in Garrett era. Dallas won its last five games (4-1 vs spread), with three of five wins on road; they’re still just 6-21 vs spread as a home favorite under Garrett, 0-1 this year, but they’re 2-1 at home, winning by 21-3 points. Giants’ passing game hurt by losing WR Cruz for year; they’ve won three of last four games, are 1-2 on road, with all three games decided by 21 points. Big Blue is 12-8 in last 20 games as road dog, 1-2 this year. Cowboys won three of last four series games, with last three all decided by 5 or less points, but Giants won four of last five visits here, with all five decided by 6 or less. Three of last four Dallas games went over total.

Cardinals (4-1) @ Raiders (0-5)—Oakland showed spunk in Sparano’s first game as interim coach, losing 31-28 to 5-1 Chargers, but Raiders are still 0-5 (2-2-1 vs spread), losing home games by 16-24-3 points; they’re 6-12-1 in last 19 games as home dogs, 1-2 this year. Arizona’s last three wins are all by 9+ points; their only loss was at Denver, when #3 QB Thomas wound up playing, something he ain’t ready for. Palmer was 8-16 as Oakland’s starting QB in 2011-12 Home team lost five of last eight series games, with four of last six decided by 3 or less points. Arizona is 3-0 as a road favorite under Arians; no team has run ball for more than 92 yards against them this year. Cardinals split two visits here, haven’t played in Coliseum since ’06.

49ers (4-2) @ Broncos (4-1)—Not the best week for defensive stalwart Willis (toe) to be out for 49ers; they allowed 28-23 points in two losses, only two games Niners allowed more than 21 points. Broncos are averaging 32 ppg at home, are different team since getting Welker back and then ironing out kinks during bye week, winning last two weeks by 21-14 points while scoring 8 TD’s on 26 drives (36 ppg). Denver is 13-5 as home favorites with Manning at QB, 1-2 this year, winning all three at home by 7-7-21 points. 49ers are 6-4-1 as road underdog under Harbaugh, losing by TD in OT (+5) at Seattle, in only game as a dog this season. Five of six Niner games stayed under total. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread.

Texans (3-3) @ Steelers (3-3)—Pitt is struggling badly, losing to Bucs/Browns in last three weeks, with 17-9 win at Jacksonville in between; Steelers scored total of just 27 points (two TD’s on 21 drives) in last two games, despite converting 20 of last 46 on 3rd down. Houston lost three of last four games after 2-0 start; they’re 6-5-1 in last dozen games as road dog, 1-0 this year. Teams split four series games, only one of which was decided by less than 18 points; Texans won 24-6, lost 38-17 in two visits here, last of which was in ’08. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional home teams are 4-1-1; non-divisional favorites are 5-2-2. Remember that over is 15-4 in primetime games this season.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, October 19

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Game of the Day: 49ers at Broncos
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San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-7, 49)

Peyton Manning can shatter the NFL record for career touchdown passes when the Denver Broncos host the surging San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night. Manning needs three scoring strikes to surpass the all-time record of 508 held by Brett Favre, but the league's only five-time Most Valuable Player said his focus is on San Francisco. “We’re playing a tough schedule, we've got the 49ers at home and they've been one of the dominant teams of the past couple years," Manning said. "That’s all I’m thinking about.”

San Francisco has a short week to prepare for Manning and the Broncos after spotting St. Louis an early 14-point lead before roaring back for a 31-17 victory on Monday night, extending its winning streak to three games. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is coming off his finest performance of the season, throwing for 343 yards and three scoring passes to keep the 49ers a half-game behind first-place Arizona in the NFC West. San Francisco's defense offers a test for Manning, ranking second in both total yards (287.2) and passing yards (207.3).

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The line initially opened at Denver -6.5 where it stayed for several fays before moving to -7. The total has been dropping sincer opening at 50.5, it is now sitting at 49.

INJURY REPORT: 49ers - WR Stevie Johnson (Prob-Hip), S Jimmie Ward (Ques-Quadricep), CB Chris Culliver (Ques-Shoulder) Broncos - RB Juwan Thompson (Prob-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a nice night for football with clear skies, minimum winds and a temperature around 68°F.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U): San Francisco could be shorthanded for the duel with Manning, with Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis expected to miss the game and cornerback Jimmie Ward a question mark after suffering injuries against St. Louis, leaving the 49ers without three of their top linebackers. Defensive back Perrish Cox said the team has confidence in rookie Chris Borland, who replaced Willis on Monday night and register two tackles and a pair of pass breakups. "“We've all got trust in Chris Borland,” Cox said. "He’s got big shoes to fill. We’re going to miss Pat in this game, but we’ve all just got to step in.” San Francisco may lean on running back Frank Gore, who was limited to 38 yards last week but went over 100 yards in each of his previous two games.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Manning has one of the league's best weapons and a matchup nightmare in third-year tight end Julius Thomas, who hauled in two more scoring passes in last week's 31-17 win over the New York Jets to give him nine for the season - tying Calvin Johnson for the most in league history through five games. Wideout Demaryius Thomas shook off a slow start and has put up a pair of monster games since the bye week, hauling in 18 catches for 350 yards and three touchdowns while running back Ronnie Hillman rushed for 100 yards against the Jets in his first career start. Manning has thrown for at least three TDs in four of the five games and has 15 scoring passes versus three interceptions. Linebacker Von Miller has six sacks for Denver, which is allowing only 76.8 yards rushing per game.

TRENDS:

*49ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
*Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 10-2 in Broncos last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, October 19


Falcons going through rough patch ATS

The Atlanta Falcons have gone ice cold for their spread backers, covering in just one of their last five games.

Matt Ryan's crew invade M&T Bank Stadium Sunday for a date with the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens are currently 6.5-point home faves with an O/U of 50.


Dogs prevailing in Titans-Redskins matchups

When the Tennessee Titans and the Washington Redskins get together, the underdogs have been coming out on top.

The dogs are 4-0 ATS in the last four games between the two clubs. The Titans will take on the 'Skins once again in D.C. Sunday.

Washington is presently 6-point home faves with the total set at 45.5.


Sam Shields out against Panthers

At best, the Green Bay Packers will have only one of their two starting cornerbacks for Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers. And even that is only a 50-50 proposition. Coach Mike McCarthy on Friday ruled out Sam Shields and listed fellow starting cornerback Tramon Williams as questionable.


Jags struggling to cover vs. AFC teams

The Jacksonville Jaguars have had a tough time covering across the board in recent years, but it's been especially hard for them against the AFC.

The Jags are 1-5-1 in their last seven games against AFC teams. Jacksonville hosts Cleveland Friday for another matchup with a club from the conference.

The Jags are presently 5.5-point home dogs. The total is sitting at 44.5.


Colts have become a boon for Over bettors

If you've been paying attention to recent Indianapolis Colts games, you're well aware of just how profitable they've been for bettors backing the Over.

The Over is 7-1 in the Colts' previous eight games. Indy welcomes the Cincinnati Bengals to Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday.

Andrew Luck's squad are currently 3-point home faves with an O/U of 49.5.


Seahawks-Rams have history of going Under

The Under has been the hot bet when the St. Louis Rams and the Seattle Seahawks clash.

All four of the last four games between the two teams have gone under the total. They'll face off again in Missouri Sunday.

The Seahawks are presently 6.5-point road faves with an O/U of 42.5.


Vikings continue to be a poor spread play

It's been a rough season for the Minnesota Vikings, and it's showing in their results against the spread.

The Vikes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games. They'll try and turn that around Sunday against the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

The Bills are currently 5-point home favorites with a total of 43.


Dolphins drop DT for secondary depth

The Miami Dolphins waived defensive tackle Deandre Coleman and signed defensive back Lowell Rose from the practice squad Saturday.

Rose provides depth in case safety Jimmy Wilson cannot play in Chicago on Sunday. Wilson is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury.

Rose, an undrafted free agent out of Tulsa in 2013, has spent time with San Francisco, the New York Jets and San Diego Chargers but has not played.

Coleman had played in just one game this season. The Dolphins will get defensive lineman Derrick Shelby back from a one-game suspension this week.


Texans' Clowney questionable for Monday night

Houston Texans linebacker Jadeveon Clowney is listed as questionable to play in Monday night's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers after being limited in practice for a second straight day Saturday.

Clowney underwent arthroscopic knee surgery on Sept. 8 for a torn meniscus after getting injured in a Week 1 win over the Washington Redskins. He returned to the practice field Friday and Texans coach Bill O'Brien said there was a "50-50" chance the No. 1 overall pick in the draft will play.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick 5 games a week:

6) Bears, -3-- Starting OL practiced together for first time this week.

5) Ravens, -6.5-- Going against Atlanta on the road.

4) Seahawks, -6.5-- Must have been fun flight after Harvin trade.

3) Giants, +6.5-- Underdogs dominate in Dallas home games.

2) Colts, -3-- Indy won four in row after an 0-2 start.

1) Chiefs, +4.5-- KC lost to Chargers twice LY, both by a FG. .

Season record of six most popular picks each week: 19-17

2013 season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-57-4