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[CNOTES]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 8

October 24, 2014

LAS VEGAS – It appears that the biggest NFL line move in Week 8 will come in an intriguing AFC North matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, two teams clearly heading in opposite directions. The public has stated their case during early betting action this week, backing the Ravens and making them small road favorites in this key divisional game after the Bengals had opened at -3.

The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas waited longer than most others around town to swap the role of favorite from Cincinnati to Baltimore, with the line finally going the other direction on Friday. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said there are a few factors going in favor of the Ravens, who will likely face a Bengals team without wide receiver A.J. Green due to a lingering toe injury that has forced him to miss the past two games. Green had six catches for 131 yards, including a 77-yard touchdown, in the first meeting at Baltimore in Week 1, resulting in a 23-16 Cincinnati victory as a 1-point road underdog.

“A.J. Green has been downgraded to doubtful, so I don’t expect him to play,” Avello said. “That’s only a piece of it because I think he was expected to be out. When they went up to New England, the offense looked awful. And then they play Carolina at home to a tie in a game they were supposed to win, their defense gave up a bunch. Then they go to Indianapolis, they get shut out.

“In the first three games, they were giving up about 10 points a game. In the last three games, they’re giving up about 35. So not only has the offense sputtered, but the defense has just collapsed. It’s just a move based on who’s playing well and who’s not. Baltimore’s playing as well as anybody in the NFL.”

Another solid line move involves the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who will be looking to avoid a three-game winning streak when they visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Seattle opened as a 4-point favorite at The Wynn and was up to -5.5 on Friday afternoon.

“Slight move, there’s some early money on them,” Avello said of the Seahawks. “It’s probably based on the team losing two in a row against a Carolina team that’s really hard to figure out. I thought this (Panthers) team was going to be a dead issue this year, then they came out of the box playing pretty good. At home, they’ve played pretty good football though.

“The question is, is Seattle going to rebound because they’re a good football team and just had a couple of poor weeks, or is this team not the same team as last year? I’ll tell you what, they’re putting themselves in a very difficult spot, you get a couple of games behind in that division, it might be hard to catch up.”

Sunday’s primetime matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers could be the most heavily bet game of Week 8, according to Avello. The Saints actually opened as 1.5-point home underdogs against the Packers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook before coming back at -2.5. At The Wynn, New Orleans opened -1 and has since moved to -2 with the total jumping from 54.5 to 55.5.

“That’s a difficult game because you’re playing one of the better teams in the NFL, and you haven’t showed well,” Avello said. “As far as New Orleans goes, luckily they’re in a division that they’re a game back, and they can get in (to first) with a win here and then beating Carolina.

“The team’s just having a rough go at it right now, losing close games too except the Dallas game, they kind of got buried. But all the other games were very, very close. The team didn’t lose a game at home last year, and so far this year they’re 2-0.”

During the Saints’ 10-game home winning streak, they are 8-1-1 against the spread. Meanwhile, Green Bay is just 1-7 straight-up and ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog. While the side may be too tough to call in this one due to the current form of each team, Avello believes one trend will continue. The total has gone OVER in nine of the past 10 meetings, which are averaging 60 points per game.

“This total’s going to fly over,” he said. “There’s no way anybody’s going to bet this under.”

Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 8 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move

251 LIONS 4 3.5 -0.5
252 FALCONS X X X

253 VIKINGS X X X
254 BUCCANEERS 2 2.5 0.5

255 BEARS X X X
256 PATRIOTS 7 6 -1

257 RAMS X X X
258 CHIEFS 6 7 1

259 SEAHAWKS 3.5 5 1.5
260 PANTHERS X X X

261 BILLS X X X
262 JETS 2.5 3 0.5

263 DOLPHINS 4.5 6 1.5
264 JAGUARS X X X

265 TEXANS 1 3 2
266 TITANS X X X

267 RAVENS X 1 X
268 BENGALS 3 X -4

269 EAGLES X X X
270 CARDINALS 2.5 2.5 0

271 COLTS 2.5 3 0.5
272 STEELERS X X X

273 RAIDERS X X X
274 BROWNS 7 6.5 -0.5

275 PACKERS 1.5 X -4
276 SAINTS X 2.5 X

277 REDSKINS X X X
278 COWBOYS 8 9.5 1.5

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 8

October 25, 2014

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center , which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 8 Picks (# of Selections)

1) Indianapolis -3 (604)
2) Kansas City -6.5 (420)
3) Houston -2 (485)
4) Baltimore +1 (444)
5) New Orleans -1.5 (431)

Week 7 Results

1) Kansas City (+4.5) - WIN
2) Indianapolis (-3) - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants (+6.5) - LOSS
4) Seattle (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Baltimore (-6.5) - WIN

Week 6 Results

1) Miami (+3.5) - WIN
2) N.Y. Giants (+3) - LOSS
3) Buffalo (+3) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-7) - LOSS
5) Denver (-8.5) - WIN

Week 5 Results

1) Denver (-7) - WIN
2) Baltimore (+3.5) - LOSS
3) Cincinnati (-1) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-6.5) - WIN
5) Chicago (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 4 Results

1) Green Bay (-1.5) - WIN
2) Kansas City (+3.5) - WIN
3) Atlanta (-3) - LOSS
4) Philadelphia (+5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

2014 SuperContest Weekly and Overall Consensus Records

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage

1 2-3 2-3 40%

2 3-2 5-5 50%

3 5-0 10-5 67%

4 3-2 13-7 65%

5 2-3 15-10 60%

6 2-3 17-13 57%

7 3-2 20-15 57%

8 - - -

9 - - -

10 - - -

11 - - -

12 - - -

13 - - -

14 - - -

15 - - -

16 - - -

17 - - -

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 8

October 25, 2014


Week 7 Recap

The ‘under’ produced an 8-7 record in Week 7 and those results included three ‘over’ tickets in the primetime games. Including the Denver-San Diego outcome from this past Thursday, we’ve had 25 games played under the lights and the ‘over’ has gone 21-4 (84%) in these contests. I asked the Westgate SuperBook Director Jay Kornegay about this current 'over' run and wanted to know if his Las Vegas based shop would adjust.

He answered, “It’s business as usual. We know the general public will be betting the over on these games. If the sharps bet it over, we might move it a little more aggressively knowing the public will also be on that same side.”

It’s more than likely that things will balance out in the second-half of the season. For those keeping track, the ‘over’ went 28-22 in 50 primetime games last season.

Through seven weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ has gone 56-50.

Back to London (*Early Game – 9:30 a.m. ET*)

In Week 4 of the regular season the Dolphins dropped the Raiders 38-14 from Wembley Stadium in London. The combined 52 points easily went ‘over’ the closing number of 41.

In that week’s installment of “Total Talk” we mentioned the current total trend in the NFL International Series and we’ll bring it to your attention again.

Including the Miami-Oakland outcome, the ‘over’ has now cashed in four consecutive games played from London.

NFL International Series History (2007-2014)
Year Matchup Total Result
2007 New York Giants 13 Miami 10 Under 48
2008 New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 Over 45.5
2009 New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 Under 45
2010 San Francisco 24 Denver 16 Under 41.5
2011 Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 Under 44
2012 New England 45 St. Louis 7 Over 46
2013 Minnesota 34 Pittsburgh 27 Over 41
2013 San Francisco 42 Jacksonville 10 Over 41
2014 Miami Dolphins 38 Oakland Raiders 14 Over 41.5
2014 Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons -
2014 Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -


This Sunday, Detroit and Atlanta will play the second of three NFL games in London this season. The total on this game is hovering between 46 and 47 points and this looks like a pass for me. Atlanta’s offense is struggling lately and I can’t see them moving the ball consistently against Detroit’s defense. Despite facing the Falcons dismal defense (412 YPG, 28.4 PPG), the Lions attack is limited without the duties of WR Calvin Johnson and RB Reggie Bush. Atlanta has watched the ‘under’ cash in three straight plus the ‘under’ has gone 5-2 for Detroit this season, which includes a 3-0 mark on the road.

Next Stop: New England

This particular segment has become increasingly popular and I’m more than glad to touch on the “Thursday Night Total” system on a weekly basis, especially when it wins.

For those of you reading “Total Talk” for the first time, the total angle that’s been profitable is very simple to follow. All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Dating back to last season, the ‘over’ has gone 19-3-1 (86%) in these situations.

This week, the angle applies to the New England-Chicago matchup since the Patriots defeated the Jets 27-25 at home on Thursday in Week 7.

The number has already jumped from 49 to as high as 51 at some shops. The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 in their last four games and Chicago has been better on the road, averaging 26.5 PPG.

New England’s defense is banged up but the unit has been respectable (22 PPG) this season, especially against the pass (208 YPG). Chicago is 1-2 against the weaker trio of the AFC East this season and the defense has allowed 27, 19 and 23 points in those games. Stepping up in class would make you believe the Bears unit could be in trouble Sunday.

Keep in mind that this system will remain in Foxborough for Week 9 since the Broncos visit the Patriots and Denver just played this past Thursday at home.

National TV Matchup

The ‘over’ has cashed in the last two nationally televised games o Sunday, both involving the Cowboys.

Prior to these results, the ‘under’ had gone 5-0 in the late afternoon spot. This week’s national television game heads to Western Pennsylvania as the Steelers host the Colts on CBS. The total opened 48 ½ and is steadily creeping up.

Pittsburgh is a tough team to figure out, especially on offense. The Steelers put up 30 points last week in their win against the Texans but 14 of those points were gifted. Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 4-3 this season, 3-0 at home.

Indianapolis is ranked first in total offense (452 YPG) and second in scoring (30.9 PPG) and those numbers improve on the road (464 YPG, 33.7 PPG). The Colts have gone 3-0 to the ‘over’ away from home and they face a Steelers defense that has surrendered 27, 27 and 23 points at home to quarterbacks named Hoyer, Glennon and Fitzpatrick.

Good Luck (pun intended) on Sunday!

Off the Bye

Teams off the bye have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 in their games and the one observation I’m seeing is that the rest has helped the offensive units.

Last week, the New Orleans and Kansas City both scored 23 points and those results were on the road.

In Week 6, Miami (24) and Oakland (28) were productive off the bye.

Week 5 saw Cleveland (29), St. Louis (28), Arizona (20), Denver (41) Cincinnati (17) and Seattle (27) post quality efforts with rest.

Based on those numbers, we’ve seen teams off rest average 28.8 PPG this season. At home off rest, the number increases to 31 PPG.

This Sunday, we have two teams playing off rest, one at home and one on the road.

Tampa Bay vs. Minnesota
Philadelphia at Arizona

Divisional Matchups

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets: This is the lowest total (40) on the board and it’s not surprising. The Bills (19.3 PPG) and Jets (17.3 PPG) are ranked 27th and 28th in scoring and they both have Top 10 defensive units (YPG). Buffalo has watched the ‘under’ go 6-1 in its first seven games and it’s also banged up offensively. The ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: These teams met in Week 1 and the Bengals captured a 23-16 road win. The combined 37 points fell ‘under’ the closing total of 43.5 but points were left off the board in this game. Cincinnati has scored 24, 33 and 37 at home this season, which isn’t a surprise. Last year, the Bengals averaged 31.6 PPG in nine games on their turf.

Houston at Tennessee: Oddsmakers sent out a total of 43.5 on this matchup and the number has dropped to 41.5. The Titans are starting rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback, which could have you leaning ‘under’ in the spot. Especially when you realize Houston just faced Romo, Luck and Roethlisberger. Titans are 5-2 to the ‘under’ this season.

Washington at Dallas: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Green Bay at New Orleans: Highest total on the board (55) in Week 8 and it’s very hard to argue for the ‘under’ in this spot unless you’re going against the consensus. The Packers have seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 this season and that includes a run of four straight tickets. Green Bay has also covered all four games during the current run, which has crippled bookmakers. The Saints have also been a strong ‘over’ (5-1) team this season and it’s offensive tendencies at home cannot be ignored. The last three meetings between the pair have seen combined points of 80, 76 and most recently 55 in their 2012 encounter.

Washington at Dallas: This game opened at 51 and that number has dropped to 49 ½ as of Saturday, which doesn’t surprise me. Dallas has the firepower to light up the scoreboard but the same can’t be said for Washington, especially with Colt McCoy at QB. The Cowboys and Redskins have both seen the ‘over’ go 4-3 this season but this series has watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their last three encounters. If you’re looking for a possible ‘over’ angle, you could point to Washington’s defense. The unit has allowed a combined 82 points (Eagles - 37, Giants - 45) in their first two matchups against NFC East squads.

Fearless Predictions

Week 7 didn’t go as planned and if it wasn’t for the gimmick teaser bet, it would’ve been dreadful. The deficit is $300 as we near the midway point of the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Chicago-New England 50.5

Best Under: Miami-Jacksonville 42.5

Best Team Total: Over Tampa Bay 22.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)

Over 41.5 Chicago-New England

Over 40 Indianapolis-Pittsburgh

Under 51.5 Miami-Jacksonville

 

[CNOTES]

Week 8 Tip Sheet

October 25, 2014

Bears at Patriots (-6, 51) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- This Chicago team is very hard to figure out, up one week and down the other. The bad Bears came out last Sunday in a 27-14 home loss to the Dolphins as three-point favorites. Chicago fell behind, 14-0 at halftime, as the Bears own a dreadful 0-3 record at Soldier Field this season.
-- The Patriots keep rolling along following their third straight win, holding off the Jets last Thursday night, 27-25. New England failed to cover for the second time as a home favorite this season, but the Pats have won five of its past six games since losing at Miami in the season opener.

Previous meeting: New England crushed Chicago at Soldier Field in 2010 by a 36-7 count as three-point road favorites. The Patriots blew the game open by putting up 26 second quarter points, while Tom Brady threw for 369 yards. The last time the Bears visited New England, the Patriots held off the Bears, 17-13 in 2006.

What to watch for: Chicago’s best efforts have been put together on the road this season, winning three of four games on the highway (3-1 ATS). The Bears are 3-1 to the ‘over’ away from the Windy City, while going 5-0 SU/ATS in its past five road games against the AFC. The Patriots have riding a four-game ‘over’ streak, while going 8-8 ATS since the start of 2012 as a home favorite of at least six points.

Seahawks (-5, 44 ½) at Panthers – 1:00 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- The Seahawks are in the midst of their first two-game losing streak since midway through the 2012 season after getting tripped up at St. Louis, 28-26 as 6 ½-point road favorites. The Seattle defense has allowed 58 points in the past two losses, but the Seahawks yielded just 275 yards to the Rams last Sunday.
-- The Panthers were blitzed out of the gate in a 38-17 drubbing at Green Bay, falling behind 21-0 after the first quarter. Carolina failed to cover as 6 ½-point underdogs, snapping a two-game ATS winning streak. The Panthers’ defense has allowed at least 37 points in four of the past five games, hitting the ‘over’ five straight times.

Previous meeting: The Seahawks topped the Panthers in last season’s opener, 12-7 at Bank of America Stadium. Russell Wilson found Jermaine Kearse on a 43-yard touchdown strike in the fourth quarter to give Seattle the win and cover as three-point favorites. Seattle has won in each of the past two visits to Charlotte, while limiting the Panthers to only 19 points in those contests.

What to watch for: In spite of last week’s defeat, Seattle owns an 8-4 ATS record in the past 12 opportunities as a road favorite (1-2 ATS this season). Since the start of last season, the Panthers have compiled a 9-2-1 ATS mark at home, but Carolina is 4-8 ATS as an underdog in this stretch.

Ravens (-2, 45 ½) at Bengals – 1:00 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- The Ravens are quietly rolling atop the AFC North at 5-2, as Baltimore routed a beat-up Atlanta squad, 29-7 as seven-point home favorites. Baltimore has taken care of business against NFC foes, posting a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record, while winning each of those games by at least 22 points apiece.
-- The Bengals aren’t falling apart at the seams, but the team that was once 3-0 has stumbled to an 0-2-1 record the past three weeks. Cincinnati was blanked at Indianapolis, 27-0, as the Bengals’ defense has allowed 107 points in the last three games.

Previous meeting: The Bengals took care of the Ravens in Baltimore to open the season, 23-16 as one-point underdogs. Cincinnati built a 15-0 halftime lead on five field goals, but the Ravens rallied for 16 unanswered points to take a one-point fourth quarter advantage. Andy Dalton connected with A.J. Green on a 77-yard touchdown pass to give Cincinnati the lead for good, snapping a four-game skid at Baltimore that dated back to 2009.

What to watch for: Cincinnati has won five of its past six home divisional matchups, while going 2-0 SU/ATS last season as a home underdog. The Ravens have dropped four of their last five road games within the AFC North, while playing at Cincinnati outside of Week 17 for the first time since 2010.

Eagles at Cardinals (-1 ½, 48) – 4:05 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- The Eagles rested comfortably after blowing out the Giants at home in Week 6 by a 27-0 count. Philadelphia improved to 4-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, as the Eagles racked up 448 yards of offense to pick up their second divisional win of the season.
-- The Cardinals cruised past the Raiders as 3 ½-point road favorites, 24-13 to move to 5-1 on the season. Arizona has limited four of six opponents to 17 points or fewer, as the Cardinals have won five of their past seven games on the road dating back to last season.

Previous meeting: Philadelphia jumped out to a 24-7 advantage over Arizona last December, before the Cardinals eventually lost 24-21. The late rally helped out Arizona backers, as the Cardinals cashed as 3 ½-point underdogs. Arizona owns a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS mark against Philadelphia in the past four matchups, which includes a home victory over the Eagles to win the NFC Championship in 2008.

What to watch for: Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles have put together a 7-3 record on the road, including a Week 2 victory at Indianapolis as three-point ‘dogs. The Cardinals are 9-2 in the past 11 games at University of Phoenix Stadium, but are just 4-6 ATS as a home favorite.

Colts (-3 ½, 49) at Steelers – 4:25 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- The Colts started the season at 0-2, but Indianapolis has stormed back with five straight victories, including a 27-0 rout of Cincinnati. In all five of those wins, the Colts have covered each time, while scoring 27 points in six straight games. Since losing to the Dolphins in Week 2 of the 2013 season, the Colts are nearly automatic at home with a 9-2 record the past 11 games.
-- The Steelers erased an early 14-3 deficit against the Texans, scoring 21 points in the final two minutes of the half to knock off Houston, 30-23. Pittsburgh has now alternated wins and losses in its seven games this season, while going 1-2 ATS at Heinz Field.

Previous meeting: In the disastrous season of 2011 for Indianapolis, the Colts actually hung around with the Steelers as 10 ½-point home underdogs in a 23-20 loss. The Colts are making just their second visit to Heinz Field since 2003, knocking off the Steelers as short ‘dogs, 24-20 in 2008.

What to watch for: Indianapolis has been automatic as a road favorite since Andrew Luck took over in 2012, winning and covering all seven times in the role. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers own a 5-1 ATS record as a home underdog, while covering and winning against Detroit and Cincinnati last season.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick 5 games a week:

6) Vikings, +2.5-- Tampa Bay is coming off a bye.

5) Chiefs, -6.5-- Won a big game in San Diego last week.

4) Saints, -1.5-- New Orleans is struggling, but they are 2-0 at home.

3) Ravens, +1-- No AJ Green for Cincy; Ravens out for revenge.

2) Texans, -2-- Rookie QB Mettenberger starting for Tennessee.

1) Colts, -3-- Pittsburgh has solid record as a home underdog.

Season record of six most popular picks each week: 22-20

2013 season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-57-4

**********


Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Summing up a sports Saturday.......

13) Mississippi State 45, Kentucky 31-- #1-ranked Bulldogs got good challenge at improved Kentucky, which passed for 401 yards, but couldn't handle State's running game. Bulldogs ran for 324 yards, ran a squib kick back for clinching TD with 2:22 to play. No way is Mississippi State the best team in the country.

12) TCU 82, Texas Tech 27-- Tech beat the Horned Frogs the last two years; this is a league game, and TCU scored 82 points!!!! Frogs had 785 yards of offense. Here's a hint for Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury-- recruit defensive players. A lot of them.

11) Arizona State 24, Washington 10-- Game was 10-10 with 4:00 left, but ASU scored twice in last 3:00 to get on the plane happy- they're 4-0 on road. QB Kelly got knocked silly when he threw GW TD pass; Sun Devils got clinching pick-6 with 0:53 left- they host Utah, Notre Dame the next two Saturdays. .

10) Georgia Tech 56, Pitt 28-- Panthers lost five fumbles on their first 13 plays and trailed 28-0 5:16 into the game. No bueno, especially against a team that is content to run the ball for three hours. Tech ran the ball for 465 yards.

9) Michigan State 35, Michigan 11-- Another dismal day for Brady Hoke, whose players planted a stake on Spartan Stadium turf after running onto the field before the game. Michigan State players and their coaches noticed, so when Spartans scored a meaningless TD in game's last minute, that was why.

In case you wondering, the 17-point spread Michigan got in this game was the third-biggest Wolverines had ever gotten in a game-- ever. Michigan got 20+ points in a couple of games in 2008, against Penn State and Ohio State.

8) Nebraska 42, Rutgers 24-- This is my weekly plea for geographic sanity; why are these teams in the same league? Rutgers is in New Jersey, which is, according to Mapquest, 1,297 miles from Lincoln. Apparently TV money drives all this, but it baffles me how taking so many long road trips helps Rutgers win.

7) Giants 11, Royals 4-- KC led 4-2 in middle of 5th inning, but their bullpen got roughed up and World Series is now 2-2. Since 1982, when WS is tied 2-2, team that wins Game 5 has only won series four of 11 times.

6) Marshall 35, FAU 16-- Unbeaten Thundering Herd were down 16-14 at the half in this game, but held Owls scoreless in second half. There was a female official in this game; Maia Chaka, who Mike Pereira thinks will be in the NFL fairly soon.

Pereira is really, really good on TV; he works a lot of games in the studio and gives clear rules explanations for his opinions and he is usually right.

5) Utah 24, USC 21-- Trojans fell to 5-3 when Utah scored with 0:08 left to win; five of USC's eight games were decided by 6 or less points.

Unrelated weather note: It is 2am as I type this-- we just had a thunderstorm here in upstate NY, complete with a brief hailstorm. Weird for this time of year.

4) Kansas State 23, Texas 0-- Why did Texas fire Mack Brown? Longhorns hadn't been shut out since Oklahoma beat them 12-0 in 2004- they look terrible now.

3) UCLA 40, Colorado 37 OT-- Mark my words: two years from now, Colorado is going to be really good. Coach MacIntyre is building a solid program, it just takes lot of time to build a solid football program, unlike basketball.

2) Ohio State 31, Penn State 24 OT--Buckeyes were up 17-0 at half, but threw a pick-6 early in third quarter and wound up surviving in OT, in a game where neither side gained 300 yards. Penn State has now lost its last three games, scoring total of 36 points, not counting the OTs in this one.

1) LSU 10, Ole Miss 7-- This was a fierce throwback-type game where Tigers ran ball for 264 yards, but kept shooting itself in the foot, with a missed FG and couple fumbles in Ole Miss territory. LSU finally drove ball 95 yards on 13 plays to win on a TD with 5:07 left, then survived the Rebels' final drive.

Our thoughts and prayers go out to Coach Miles, whose mom Martha passed away Friday night, at age 92.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, October 26


C.J. Mosley sent home from London

On the eve of their game against the Atlanta Falcons in Wembley Stadium, the Detroit Lions have suspended defensive tackle C.J. Mosley and sent him home from England. The Lions announced Saturday that they have suspended Mosley for two weeks for an unspecified violation of team rules and conduct detrimental to the team.


Dolphins activate Jordan

The Miami Dolphins have activated pass rusher Dion Jordan for their game Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

To make room on the 53-man roster, the Dolphins waived wide receiver Damian Williams.

Jordan, the team's first-round pick in 2013, just finished serving a six-game suspension for violations of the NFL's substance-abuse policy.

Jordan had two sacks as a rookie and now should get a chance to prove he can fit into Miami's 4-3 defensive scheme.

Without Jordan, the Dolphins have 17 sacks -- eight by Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.


Under the trend in AFC's all-Florida battle

The Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Miami Dolphins from EverBank Field for the AFC's Florida bragging rights, but if there's a trend that sticks out when these teams meet, it's the Under.

The two teams have met six times since the Jags joined the league and the Under has gone 4-2, but has cashed in the last four games which these teams have squared off.

The last meeting was 2012 with the Dolphins prevailed 24-3 and the scoreline staying well under the closing total of 38.5.

Currently, the total is 42.5 after opening 43 or 43.5 depending on your book of choice. The highest total the two have seen was 43 in 2009 when the Dolphins won 14-10.


Indianapolis Colts are Sunday's top Consensus play

Seeing 72.48 percent of betting support, the Indianapolis Colts are the top play according to Consensus on Sunday's NFL board.

Not necessarily surprising as the Colts are the top team in the league against the spread. They've put together a 6-1 record against the spread and have covered five-straight since losing 30-27 to the Philadelphia Eagles as 3-point home faves.

Indy will look to make it six-straight at the betting window as it visits the Pittsburgh Steelers in late afternoon action Sunday. The Colts are presently 3.5-point road faves.

 

[CNOTES]

Rated Plays:

6 - 6 .................................*****

6 - 5 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

11 - 16 - 1 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

4 - 3 ................................BLOW OUTS


Sunday, October 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Kansas City - Under 44.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Houston -3.5 500 BLOW OUT
Tennessee - Over 43 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -2 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Tampa Bay - Over 43 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Seattle -6 500 *****
Carolina - Over 45 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati +2.5 500 *****
Cincinnati - Over 44.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +7 500 *****
Jacksonville - Under 42 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Chicago +5.5 500 *****
New England - Over 51.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
N.Y. Jets - Under 40 500




Philadelphia - 4:05 PM ET Philadelphia +1 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Arizona - Under 48 500

Oakland - 4:25 PM ET Oakland +6.5 500 *****
Cleveland - Under 44 500 *****

Indianapolis - 4:25 PM ET Pittsburgh +4 500 BLOW OUT
Pittsburgh - Over 48.5 500

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY NIGHT BAIL OUT PLAY


Green Bay - 8:30 PM ET New Orleans -2.5 500 BLOW OUT

New Orleans - Under 54.5 500 BLOW OUT

 

[CNOTES]

Rated Plays:

8 - 10.................................*****

6 - 6 ................................DOUBLE PLAYS

12 - 19 - 1 ................................TRIPLE PLAYS

7 - 4 ................................BLOW OUTS


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/26/14 12-*12-*0 50.00% -*600 Detail

10/20/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/19/14 12-*13-*1 48.00% -*1150 Detail

10/16/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/13/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

10/12/14 14-*12-*0 53.85% +*400 Detail

10/09/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/06/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/05/14 9-*16-*1 36.00% -*4300 Detail

10/02/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 52-*60-*2 46.43% -*7000

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Monday, October 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football: Redskins at Cowboys
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 48.5)

A season-opening loss to San Francisco seems like a lifetime ago for the Dallas Cowboys, who will go for their seventh consecutive victory when they host the Washington Redskins on Monday night. The Cowboys have surged to the top of the NFC East behind an offense featuring DeMarco Murray, the first running back in league history to open a season with seven straight 100-yard games. Dallas has won seven of the last 10 versus Washington, including a season sweep a year ago.

The Redskins snapped a four-game skid last week when coach Jay Gruden benched quarterback Kirk Cousins in favor of third-stringer Colt McCoy, who is expected to make his first start since December 2011. However, Gruden employed some gamesmanship by refusing to rule out Robert Griffin III, who has been sidelined since suffering a dislocated ankle in Week 2. "Colt's the starter. We're preparing for Colt to be the starter," Gruden said. "But we're trying to get Robert some reps, get him ready."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Cowboys -8.5 and adjusted to -10. The total opened 49.5 and has dropped to 48.5.

INJURY REPORT: Redskins - S Ryan Clark (Questionable, ankle), CB Tracy Porter (Questionable, hamstring), LB Perry Riley (Questionable, knee). Cowboys - CB Brandon Carr (Probable, hamstring), LB Bruce Carter (Questionable, quad), DE Tyrone Crawford (Out, calf).

POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (+3.75) + Cowboys (-2.25) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -9.0

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U): With Washington in dire need of a victory last week, Gruden made a surprise move by inserting McCoy, who wound up completing 11-of-12 for 128 yards and a touchdown in his first action since attempting one pass last season as a member of the 49ers. While McCoy is keeping the seat warm until Griffin returns, a major concern is the running game. Alfred Morris, who rushed for nearly 2,900 yards in his first two seasons, has managed only 124 over the past three games while averaging a meager 2.8 yards per carry. Washington's defense, which ranks sixth with 321.9 yards allowed but has surrendered an average of 26.1 points, absorbed a big loss when linebacker Brian Orapko (torn pectoral) was lost for the season.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Murray rumbled for 128 yards and a touchdown in last week's 31-21 victory over the New York Giants to push his league-leading total to 913 while breaking Hall of Famer Jim Brown's record of six straight 100-yard outings to open a season. “I think we did this as a group, so it’s hard for me to accept this individually,” Murray said. “The offensive line is a huge part of this. ... I definitely give a lot of credit to those guys." Quarterback Tony Romo has multiple TDs in five straight games after throwing for 279 yards and three scores last week, with Dez Bryant hauling in nine balls for 151 yards. Dallas ranked last in total defense last season with an average of 415.3 yards but has cut that number to 343.9 through seven games.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Dallas.
* Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
* Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last four vs. NFC.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 52 percent of wagers are backing the Dallas Cowboys.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Monday, October 27


Cowboys struggling to cover in Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football has not been kind to Dallas Cowboys spread backers. The Cowboys are 0-4 in their last night Monday primetime games.

Colt McCoy will lead the Washington Redskins into AT&T Stadium Monday for a date with Tony Romo's crew.

Dallas is presently 10-point home favorites. The total for the game is sitting at 48.5.


Trend shows Cowboys going Over the total

The Dallas Cowboys have had no problem putting points on the board this season, and as a result, bettors banking on high totals are profiting.

The Over is 4-1 in Dallas' last five games. They'll host the Washington Redskins at "Jerry World" in Week 8 Monday Night Football.

The 'Boys are currently 10-point home faves with an O/U of 48.5.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend.....

13) Lions 22, Falcons 21-- Long trip home for Atlanta, which led 21-0 al halftime. Word is NFL will have five of these London games next year; not fond of starting a game at 9:30am ET. Second week in row Lions won after being in hopeless situation, good for them. NFC South teams are putrid.

12) Vikings 19, Bucs 13 OT-- Minnesota tied game with FG at gun, then scored a defensive TD on first play of OT to snap 3-game losing streak and go home happy. Four of six Buc losses are by six or less points, with two of last three in OT- they scored 17 or less points in five of seven games. .

11) Patriots 51, Bears 23-- Brady was 30-35/354 with five TD passes; this game was 38-7 at the half. Going to be long bye week for the Bears, who visit Lambeau in first game after their bye- they've lost four of their last five games. Patriots are now 22-15 vs spread in last 37 games as a non-divisional home favorite.

10) Chiefs 34, Rams 7-- Rams' putrid lack of production from WRs is summed up by this stat; they're last in NFL, getting only 8 first downs vis penalty- DBs do not respect them enough to grab/hold/interfere with them. St Louis special teams won game last week; they were not good in this one, missing a chip shot FG when it was 7-7, giving up a 99-yard kick return when it was 10-7.

9) Seahawks 13, Panthers 9-- Seattle has come to Charlotte and won three years in row, by similar scores: 16-12/12-7/13-9. Rumors persist there are problems between QB Wilson and other Seahawks. Carolina is 1-4-1 after its 2-0 start.

8) Bills 43, Jets 23-- Jets were -6 in turnovers, lost for 7th game in row after being first 1-6 team EVER to be favored a team with a winning record. Bills threw for 217 yards despite throwing only 17 passes- they won field position by 30 yards.

7) Dolphins 27, Jaguars 13-- Jax rookie QB Bortles had three turnovers, giving him six in the past two weeks and 13 in six games. Four of those have been interceptions returned for touchdowns, two by Miami here. Dolphins are unspectacular but 4-3 and thats a hell of a lot better than last year's debacle.

6) Texans 30, Titans 16-- Tennessee RB Greene was arrested Friday after parking his BMW in a handicapped spot, then almost hitting a traffic cop as he left the scene. Distractions like this are almost always a red flag. go-against sign, especially for a team starting a QB for first time in NFL. No news is good news.

5) Bengals 27, Ravens 24-- Terrific game that turned many times, last of which was when refs called offensive interference on Steve Smith with 0:32 left, negating what would've been an 80-yard TD pass. Cincinnati sweeps the season series and now has tie-breakers over Baltimore.

4) Cardinals 24, Eagles 20-- Thing I like about Bruce Arians is that he blitzes the other QB when he is protecting a lead late in the game. Arizona had TD passes of 80-75 yards, Eagles had only a FG to show for three red zone drives, and also threw an INT in the end zone from the 25. Hard to win that way.

3) Steelers 51, Colts 34-- Big Ben is now 100-50 as an NFL starter after throwing for 522 yards as Pitt dismantled a Colt team that had won five in a row. Back when he was a HS junior, Ben sat behind the coach's son, who wound up playing WR at a Division III college. Coach must be a helluva guy.

2) Browns 23, Raiders 13-- Good sign for Cleveland fans, winning easily against an inferior opponent. Raiders have now lost 13 straight dating to last season. Oakland has dropped 16 games in a row played in Eastern time zone -- a streak that started in 2009. Browns are now 4-3, matching their win total of last season.

1) Saints 44, Packers 23-- Green Bay is 0-3 on artificial turf, Saints are 3-0 at home. Luck of the schedule whether you play New Orleans at home or in the Superdome. Rodgers dinged his hanstring in this game, but Pack has next week off, so he can get better before they play the Bears on Sunday night, November 9.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Monday, October 27


Home teams come through for backers Sunday

It was a good week to back home teams against the spread in the NFL this Sunday.

Teams that enjoyed home cooking this week went 9-4 ATS, hitting over 69 percent of the time. The only home teams to not cover yesterday were Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and the New York Jets.

Home favorites fare even better going 5-5 ATS, good for a success rate of just over 71 percent.


Saints, Packers go over again

New Orleans bounced back with a big 44-23 win over Green Bay Sunday night in a game that went well of over the total making the Saints and Packers the best over plays this season.

The total closed at 55, but it was no match for the Saints and Packers. The Saints are now 6-1 over/under on the season, while the Packers are an NFL best 7-1 O/U and gone over the total in five straight games.


Rams left tackle Jake Long has torn his ACL again

The Rams weren’t necessarily expecting any good news, but that doesn’t mean they’re not disappointed. A league sources tells PFT that Long has indeed torn his ACL, which will cost him the rest of the season.


Griffin still could return on Sunday against Vikings

At one point, there was a report that Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III would return on Monday night against the Cowboys. The better view was, and had been, that Griffin will be back when Washington emerges from the bye week, at home against the Buccaneers.


Jets get blown out by Bills, are league's worst bet

Bringing in Percy Harvin wasn't enough to turn things around for the New York Jets this week, as they got stomped out 43-23 by Buffalo and are now the worst bet in the NFL.

The humiliating loss drops the Jets to 1-7 straight up and a league worst 1-6-1 against the spread this season.

It doesn't get any easier for the Jets in Week 9 as they travel to Kansas City, where they are already listed as double-digit rod dogs, currently at +10.

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Redskins at Cowboys

October 26, 2014

The expectations on the Cowboys this season weren’t high as many people didn’t have faith in a defense that ranked near the bottom of the league last year. Following a home blowout loss to San Francisco in the season opener, Dallas is riding a six-game winning streak and looks to keep up its momentum on Monday night against a struggling Washington squad.

The Cowboys (6-1) have leaned on their offense throughout this hot stretch, scoring at least 30 points in four of the six victories, including in a 31-21 home triumph over the Giants last Sunday. Dallas erased an early 14-7 deficit with three unanswered touchdowns, including a pair of touchdown tosses by Tony Romo. The Cowboys managed to cover as 4 ½-point favorites, while improving to 1-0 inside NFC East play.

The Redskins (2-5) scratched and clawed to their second win on the season by needing a late field goal to edge the Titans, 19-17. Washington failed to cash as six-point home favorites, both of its victories have come at FedEx Field against Tennessee and Jacksonville. Kai Forbath kicked four field goals in last week’s victory, including the game-winner from 22 yards out, while Colt McCoy looked sharp by going 11 of 12 with a 70-yard touchdown strike to Pierre Garcon.

McCoy is slated to start on Monday, but that isn’t an iron-clad guarantee, according to head coach Jay Gruden. If and when Robert Griffin III is healthy and ready to play, Gruden will start the ex-Baylor star at quarterback. However, Gruden will turn to another former Big 12 standout in McCoy, who is set to make his first start since back in 2011 as a member of the Browns.

Two years ago, Griffin led the Redskins to a season sweep of the Cowboys, as Washington went on to win the NFC East crown. Last season was a different story, as Dallas returned the favor and won both matchups against Washington, including a 31-16 home victory as 5 ½-point favorites. The Redskins outgained the Cowboys on the ground, 216-48, but found the end zone just once. Romo wasn’t sharp by throwing for 170 yards, but a 21-yard touchdown pass to Terrence Williams gave Dallas a 21-9 lead as the Cowboys never looked back.

In the second meeting at FedEx Field in Week 16, the Cowboys edged the Redskins, 24-23, but Washington covered as three-point home underdogs. Griffin was sidelined in this matchup, as Kirk Cousins guided the Washington offense to a 23-14 fourth quarter advantage. However, Dan Bailey drilled a 25-yard field goal with six minutes left, then Romo found DeMarco Murray for a 10-yard touchdown with a minute remaining to give Dallas the one-point triumph for their fourth win in their past six trips to Washington.

The miracle run of 2012 seems like a memory for Washington, as the Redskins finished that season at 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS inside the division. Since then, the Redskins have lost eight consecutive games against NFC East opponents, which includes defeats this season against the Eagles and Giants. As a road underdog, Washington has failed to cover seven of its past nine in this role, as the Redskins are 1-2 ATS this season with the lone ATS win at Philadelphia in Week 3 as four-point ‘dogs.

The Cowboys went through a stretch of being a nearly automatic fade as a home favorite, posting a dreadful 3-16 ATS when laying points in Arlington from 2010-12. Dallas has improved recently, even if it hasn’t resulted in major profits. Since 2013, Jason Garrett’s club is 4-4 ATS when laying points at AT&T Stadium, and 7-5 ATS overall at home in this span. Under Garrett, the Cowboys have compiled a 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS record at home off a home victory, which includes a non-cover in an overtime win over the Texans in Week 5.

Dallas is featured under the Monday night lights for the first time since 2012, but the Cowboys have struggled to cover the number in this spotlight. The Cowboys have failed to cash in seven of their past eight Monday contests since 2006, while putting up a 4-4 SU record in this span. At home against division foes in this stretch, Dallas is 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS, including an 18-16 squeaker against Washington in 2011 as three-point favorites, as the Cowboys kicked six field goals in the win.

Washington is playing on Monday for the second time this season, as the Redskins lost at home to the Seahawks in Week 5 as seven-point underdogs, 27-17. Since 2008, Washington has stunk it up on Mondays, going 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS, but the only road contest came at Dallas in the two-point loss back in 2011.

The ‘over’ run in primetime games has been unreal this season, going 19-4 through 23 night contests. Both teams are 4-3 to the ‘over’ this season with no significant home/road splits. Both meetings last season finished ‘under’ the total, but those games closed at 52 and 51 points. The Redskins and Cowboys each have played one game this season with a total above 50, as both teams went ‘over’ in those contests.

Dallas is listed as a 9 ½-point favorite at most spots with several 10’s out there. With the success of the Cowboys this season, expect the number to close in double-digits with public money coming in on Dallas. The total is set at 49 ½ as the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

 

[CNOTES]

'Boys look for 7th straight win

October 24, 2014


WASHINGTON REDSKINS (2-5) at DALLAS COWBOYS (6-1)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -9.5, Total: 50

The sizzling-hot Cowboys aim for a seventh straight victory when they host the Redskins on Monday night.

Washington snapped a four-game losing skid last week when third-string QB Colt McCoy replaced Kirk Cousins and led his team to a 19-17 victory over the Titans in the nation's capital. Dallas beat the Giants 31-21 last week for its sixth straight victory (5-1 ATS).

When hosting the Redskins since 1992, the Cowboys are 18-4 SU (12-10 ATS). Last season Dallas won both games SU over Washington, but the teams split wins ATS.

This Cowboys defense has surprised plenty of people this season, as they’re allowing just 19.5 PPG over their past four contests and will be eager to put the pressure on McCoy.

Washington is 25-12 ATS in road games after having lost five or six of its previous seven games since 1992. However, the Redskins are also 4-13 ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons.

Dallas, meanwhile, is 12-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two years, but only 7-16 ATS when favored under head coach Jason Garrett.

Both teams will be missing key defensive players in this matchup, as Washington just placed LB Brian Orakpo (pectoral) on IR and lists CB Tracy Porter (hamstring) and LBs Akeem Jordan (knee) and Perry Riley (knee) as questionable. Dallas might not have the services of either LB Bruce Carter (quad) or CB Brandon Carr (hamstring), who are both questionable to play.

The Redskins wisely replaced ineffective QB Kirk Cousins (1,170 pass yards, 10 TD, 9 INT) with Colt McCoy last week and McCoy was able to do exactly what the Redskins needed. He managed the game to perfection, completing 11-of-12 throws for 128 yards (10.9 YPA) and a touchdown, and led his team to a win, which is something Cousins wasn’t able to do in any of his previous four starts.

One thing McCoy won’t have to deal with in Washington is a lack of weapons, as he’ll be throwing the ball to both WRs DeSean Jackson (26 rec, 528 yards, 3 TD) and Pierre Garcon (35 rec, 396 yards, 3 TD). Jackson had just three catches for 49 yards last week, but in the previous two games, he had over 100 yards receiving and a touchdown in each. Garcon has had a touchdown in back-to-back games and is finally getting himself going after a slow start to the year.

One player the Redskins will really need to establish early is RB Alfred Morris (440 rush yards, 3 TD). Morris has really struggled recently, rushing for less than 55 yards in each of the past three games. He has not had 20 carries since Week 3, and Washington would be wise to change that.

The Redskins defense could have a lot of trouble with this potent Dallas offense. They’ve done well in preventing big yardage games from their opponents, but they’re allowing 31.2 PPG over their past five contests.

The Cowboys have won their past six games largely due to the dominant running of RB DeMarco Murray (187 carries, 913 yards and 7 TD, all NFL highs). Murray is the first player in league history to rush for 100+ yards in each of the first seven games of the season. He should be in for yet another big game against this miserable Redskins’ defense.

QB Tony Romo (1,789 rush yards, 14 TD, 6 INT) has been great since his opening week disaster against the 49ers. He’s thrown for 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions since the start of Week 2. As long as he takes care of the football the way he has been, Dallas is going to be a contender in the NFC. He’ll continue looking for his go-to receiver in WR Dez Bryant (45 rec, 590 yards, 4 TD), who has seen 37 targets over the past three weeks. Last Sunday, Bryant had nine catches for 151 yards in the win over the Giants.

Defensively, the Cowboys have been way better than anybody expected. They’re allowing 230.4 passing yards per game (12th in NFL) and 113.4 rushing yards per game (16th in NFL). They’re not dominant in either facet, but they’re solid defending both the pass and the rush, and efficiency of the Dallas offense is the reason this defense ranks second in fewest time of possession (26:27). The Cowboys are allowing just 19.5 PPG over the past four contests.

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 8

October 26, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL Week 8 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 9-4

Against the Spread 7-6

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 7-6

Against the Spread 9-4

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-7


NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 82-35-1

Against the Spread 62-53-3

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 59-49-1

Against the Spread 54-61-3

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 62-56


Biggest Favorite to Cash

The Broncos (-9) cruised past the Chargers on Thursday night to improve to 5-0 at home. Denver started the season at 0-3 ATS, but the Broncos have cashed in four consecutive games, while hitting the favorites/over combination each time during this stretch.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Carolina (+6) lost to Seattle at home for the third straight season, but the Panthers covered in a 13-9 loss. The Seahawks scored a late touchdown to take the four-point lead, just like last season on opening day when Seattle topped Carolina, 12-7.

Home Sweet Home

Home teams weren't great from a straight-up perspective, going 7-6, but the hosts posted a solid 9-4 ATS record. Among the home underdogs to cash, the Panthers, Bengals, Steelers, and Falcons. Atlanta (+3.5) was the home squad in London, but it will be a long flight back as the Falcons blew a 21-0 lead in a 22-21 loss to the Lions.

Several road favorites pulled off double-digit wins, as the Dolphins and Texans each dominated on the highway. Miami (-7) overcame a slow start in a 27-13 victory at Jacksonville, as the Dolphins won consecutive games for the first time this season (coincidentally, both on the highway). Houston (-3.5) seemed like the squarest play on the board, but the Texans bounced back from last Monday's loss at Pittsburgh to dominate Tennessee, 30-16.

Going For the Kill

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Both New England and Pittsburgh broke the 50-point mark in their home blowouts. The Patriots (-6) had no problems with the scuffling Bears, destroying Chicago, 51-23, while putting up 31 points in the second quarter alone. The Steelers (+4.5) didn't have a Monday night hangover, as Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 500 yards in a 51-34 rout of the Colts, who had never lost as a road favorite with Andrew Luck at quarterback.

Wild in the Desert

The craziest finish of the day took place in Arizona, as the Cardinals and Eagles went back and forth in the second half. Nick Foles hit Jeremy Maclin for a 54-yard touchdown pass to give the Eagles a 17-14 lead in third quarter. After the two teams exchanged field goals, Carson Palmer connected with rookie John Brown on a 75-yard touchdown strike to put the Cardinals in front for good. The Eagles put together one final drive, but Foles couldn't bring home a win as Arizona held off Philadelphia, 24-20 to improve to 6-1.

Somebody Had to Win

One week after blowing a late lead in a one-point loss at Buffalo, the Vikings traveled to Tampa Bay and built a 10-0 lead. The Buccaneers rallied for a 13-10 advantage in the fourth quarter, but rookie Teddy Bridgewater marched Minnesota down the field for the game-tying field goal to force overtime. Tampa Bay won the coin toss in overtime, but on the first play of scrimmage, the Bucs fumbled and Minnesota returned it for a touchdown for the 19-13 walk-off win. The Bucs fell to 1-6 on the season and 0-3 ATS as a favorite.

Hot and Not

New England has won four straight games, while covering three times in this stretch.

Since starting 0-2, the Chiefs are 4-1 in their previous five contests, as Kansas City owns a 5-2 ATS record this season.

Of course the Jets are on this list for not being hot. New York was pummeled by Buffalo at home, losing its seventh straight game, while going 0-4 ATS at Met Life Stadium.

Totals

The 'under' finished 7-6, including a 2-1 mark in the late kickoffs. Three teams scored at least 40 points, while just two clubs scored in single-digits..

Since beginning the season with four consecutive 'overs,' the Browns have hit the 'under' in three straight games.

The Ravens and Bengals seemed destined for an 'under' as Cincinnati led Baltimore at the half, 7-6 on a 44 total. But the two AFC North rivals exploded in the second half for a combined 38 points to easily sail 'over' the total, as Cincinnati pulled off the sweep of Baltimore, 27-24.

The 'over' continues to hit in primetime games, going 19-4 through 23 night contests, including in Denver's victory over San Diego last Thursday night.