NFL
Week 16
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Trend Report
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Denver vs LA Chargers
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Chargers's last 11 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home
Houston vs Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Houston
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland vs Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Cleveland's last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Detroit vs Chicago
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Chicago is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Chicago is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
NY Giants vs Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New England vs Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Arizona vs Carolina
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games at home
Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Tennessee vs Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Tennessee
LA Rams vs NY Jets
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Philadelphia vs Washington
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Minnesota vs Seattle
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Jacksonville vs Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
San Francisco vs Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Miami
San Francisco is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Tampa Bay vs Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans vs Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
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Week 16
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Trend Report
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Denver vs LA Chargers
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Chargers's last 11 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home
Houston vs Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Houston
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland vs Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Cleveland's last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Detroit vs Chicago
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Chicago is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Chicago is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
NY Giants vs Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New England vs Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Arizona vs Carolina
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games at home
Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Tennessee vs Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Tennessee
LA Rams vs NY Jets
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Philadelphia vs Washington
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Minnesota vs Seattle
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Jacksonville vs Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
San Francisco vs Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Miami
San Francisco is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Tampa Bay vs Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans vs Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 16
Thursday’s game
Broncos @ Chargers (-3)
Broncos (9-5)
Broncos won last four games, scoring 38-29-41-31 points.
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five games.
Denver is 8-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-5 if they score 20 or less.
Broncos are 1-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Team total: over 9-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 9-5
Denver is 4-3 SU/6-1 ATS in its road games TY.
Denver is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog TY.
In wins, Broncos are +11 in turnovers; in losses, minus-6.
Denver is 9-12-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Nine of Broncos’ last eleven games went over the total.
Denver is 5-3 ATS in last eight AFC West road games.
Chargers (8-6)
Chargers lost three of their last four games.
LA is 3-6 scoring 23 or fewer points, 5-0 scoring 24+.
Last four games, Chargers ran ball for only 68.5 yards/game .
Last seven games, Chargers are +5 in turnovers.
Team total: over 7-7
Opponents’ team total: under 8-5-1
Chargers are 4-1 ATS this season as home favorites.
Bolts are 74 ATS in last 11 AFC West home games.
Chargers are 3-1 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
QB Herbert is 38-39 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-0 in their last three home games.
Chargers are 9-29-7 ATS last 45 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Chargers (-3) won 23-16 in Denver back in Week 6.
Chargers led that game 20-0 at half; they were +2 in turnovers.
Denver is 8-4 SU in last 12 series games.
Broncos lost three of last four visits to SoFi.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Saturday’s games
Texans (-2.5) @ Chiefs
Texans (9-5)
Houston is 3-1 in last four games; they’ve clinched AFC South.
Texans are 7-4 in one-score games (decided by 8 or less points).
Texans are +16 in turnovers their last nine games.
Houston is 2-5 when it gives up more than 20 points.
Team total: under 7-6-1
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3-1 last ten
Texans are 4-3 SU on road TY, 2-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Texans are 4-10-2 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
Houston is 8-11 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 19-12 as an NFL starter.
Texans held three of last four opponents under 100 YR.
AFC South teams are 6-14 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chiefs (13-1)
Star QB Mahomes (high ankle sprain) is hurt; check status
Obviously, these stats mean little in Mahomes doesn’t play.
Carson Wentz (47-46-1 as NFL starter) is Chiefs’ backup QB.
Chiefs ran for less than 100 yards in four of last six games.
Team total: under 9-5
Opponents’ team total: over 5-3 last eight
Four of Chiefs’ last five wins were by 3 or fewer points.
Chiefs are 13-1, but they’re 1-7 ATS last eight games.
Chiefs are 12-22 ATS in last 34 games coming off a win.
Chiefs had six takeaways LW; they had only three in previous eight games.
Chiefs are 10-0 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs’ last five home games.
AFC West favorites are 15-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chiefs won six of last eight series games.
Texans are 1-3 SU/ATS in last four visits to Arrowhead.
Over is 4-0-1 in last five meetings.
Steelers @ Ravens (-6)
Steelers (10-4)
Steelers won/covered seven of their last nine games.
Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS last 11 games coming off a loss.
Last ten games, Steelers are +16 in turnovers.
Pittsburgh is 7-1 when it scores 20+ points.
Team total: over 6-3 last nine
Opponents’ team total: under 7-7
Steelers are 5-3 SU/ATS on the road this season.
Pittsburgh is 9-5 ATS in last 14 NFC North road games.
Pittsburgh was outgained 401-163 in LW’s loss at Philly.
Over is 7-4 in their last ten games.
Wilson is 130-81-1 as an NFL QB, 6-2 with Pittsburgh.
Steelers are 24-13 ATS last 37 games as a road underdog.
Ravens (9-5)
Baltimore is 4-3 in its last seven games, after a 5-game win streak.
Baltimore is 9-0 if they score 27+ points, 0-5 if they score less than 27
Ravens are 5-5 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Ravens are 2-8 ATS in last 10 AFC North home games.
Team total: over 9-5
Opponents’ team total: over 9-5
Ravens are 8-6 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
Over is 11-3 in Baltimore’s games this year.
Over is 4-2 in Baltimore home games this season.
QB Jackson is 70-28 as an NFL starter.
Ravens are 18-21 ATS in last 39 games coming off a win.
Jackson threw 5 TD passes, averaged 9.8 yards/attempt in LW’s win.
Ravens (-3) lost 18-16 at Pittsburgh in Week 11.
Steelers didn’t score a TD; they kicked six FG’s.
Pittsburgh won eight of last nine series games.
Steelers won/covered their last four visits to Baltimore.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 16
Thursday’s game
Broncos @ Chargers (-3)
Broncos (9-5)
Broncos won last four games, scoring 38-29-41-31 points.
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five games.
Denver is 8-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-5 if they score 20 or less.
Broncos are 1-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Team total: over 9-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 9-5
Denver is 4-3 SU/6-1 ATS in its road games TY.
Denver is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog TY.
In wins, Broncos are +11 in turnovers; in losses, minus-6.
Denver is 9-12-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Nine of Broncos’ last eleven games went over the total.
Denver is 5-3 ATS in last eight AFC West road games.
Chargers (8-6)
Chargers lost three of their last four games.
LA is 3-6 scoring 23 or fewer points, 5-0 scoring 24+.
Last four games, Chargers ran ball for only 68.5 yards/game .
Last seven games, Chargers are +5 in turnovers.
Team total: over 7-7
Opponents’ team total: under 8-5-1
Chargers are 4-1 ATS this season as home favorites.
Bolts are 74 ATS in last 11 AFC West home games.
Chargers are 3-1 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
QB Herbert is 38-39 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-0 in their last three home games.
Chargers are 9-29-7 ATS last 45 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Chargers (-3) won 23-16 in Denver back in Week 6.
Chargers led that game 20-0 at half; they were +2 in turnovers.
Denver is 8-4 SU in last 12 series games.
Broncos lost three of last four visits to SoFi.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Saturday’s games
Texans (-2.5) @ Chiefs
Texans (9-5)
Houston is 3-1 in last four games; they’ve clinched AFC South.
Texans are 7-4 in one-score games (decided by 8 or less points).
Texans are +16 in turnovers their last nine games.
Houston is 2-5 when it gives up more than 20 points.
Team total: under 7-6-1
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3-1 last ten
Texans are 4-3 SU on road TY, 2-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Texans are 4-10-2 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
Houston is 8-11 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 19-12 as an NFL starter.
Texans held three of last four opponents under 100 YR.
AFC South teams are 6-14 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chiefs (13-1)
Star QB Mahomes (high ankle sprain) is hurt; check status
Obviously, these stats mean little in Mahomes doesn’t play.
Carson Wentz (47-46-1 as NFL starter) is Chiefs’ backup QB.
Chiefs ran for less than 100 yards in four of last six games.
Team total: under 9-5
Opponents’ team total: over 5-3 last eight
Four of Chiefs’ last five wins were by 3 or fewer points.
Chiefs are 13-1, but they’re 1-7 ATS last eight games.
Chiefs are 12-22 ATS in last 34 games coming off a win.
Chiefs had six takeaways LW; they had only three in previous eight games.
Chiefs are 10-0 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs’ last five home games.
AFC West favorites are 15-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chiefs won six of last eight series games.
Texans are 1-3 SU/ATS in last four visits to Arrowhead.
Over is 4-0-1 in last five meetings.
Steelers @ Ravens (-6)
Steelers (10-4)
Steelers won/covered seven of their last nine games.
Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS last 11 games coming off a loss.
Last ten games, Steelers are +16 in turnovers.
Pittsburgh is 7-1 when it scores 20+ points.
Team total: over 6-3 last nine
Opponents’ team total: under 7-7
Steelers are 5-3 SU/ATS on the road this season.
Pittsburgh is 9-5 ATS in last 14 NFC North road games.
Pittsburgh was outgained 401-163 in LW’s loss at Philly.
Over is 7-4 in their last ten games.
Wilson is 130-81-1 as an NFL QB, 6-2 with Pittsburgh.
Steelers are 24-13 ATS last 37 games as a road underdog.
Ravens (9-5)
Baltimore is 4-3 in its last seven games, after a 5-game win streak.
Baltimore is 9-0 if they score 27+ points, 0-5 if they score less than 27
Ravens are 5-5 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Ravens are 2-8 ATS in last 10 AFC North home games.
Team total: over 9-5
Opponents’ team total: over 9-5
Ravens are 8-6 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
Over is 11-3 in Baltimore’s games this year.
Over is 4-2 in Baltimore home games this season.
QB Jackson is 70-28 as an NFL starter.
Ravens are 18-21 ATS in last 39 games coming off a win.
Jackson threw 5 TD passes, averaged 9.8 yards/attempt in LW’s win.
Ravens (-3) lost 18-16 at Pittsburgh in Week 11.
Steelers didn’t score a TD; they kicked six FG’s.
Pittsburgh won eight of last nine series games.
Steelers won/covered their last four visits to Baltimore.
Wednesday’s 6-pack:
College hoop teams shooting the best on the foul line:
84.8%— Wisconsin
83.8%— Cal-Irvine
82.4%— Tex-San Antonio
82.2%— Valparaiso
81.5%— Canisius
81.3%— Campbell
Quote of the Day
“He’s got to play better. We have to find a way to get him to play better. We have to play better at the quarterback position.”
Falcons coach Raheem Morris, before he benched Kirk Cousins Tuesday
Wednesday’s quiz
Which NFL team drafted Kirk Cousins in 2012?
Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook has scored the most points.
Monday’s quiz
25 years ago, the Rams won the Super Bowl for the first time, behind QB Kurt Warner, who was the backup during training camp. Trent Green was the Rams’ starting QB that summer, before he blew his knee out in an exhibition game.
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33.3%- Chiefs
30.4%- Dolphins
29.4%- Broncos
28.8%- Eagles
28.5%- Steelers
— NFL teams who get the lowest %age of their first downs on 3rd down plays:
20.6%- Packers
22.0%- Browns
22.0%- Falcons
22.9%- Lions
23.1%- Vikings
— NFL screwed around with the Week 17 (next week) schedule, moving some games:
Saturday December 28:
Chargers @ Patriots, 1:00
Broncos @ Bengals, 4:00
Cardinals @ Rams, 8:00
Sunday, December 29:
Falcons @ Commanders, 8:20
— Minnesota Vikings are 12-2, having a great year; are they really going to let QB Sam Darnold walk next spring? The franchise tag for a QB figures to be around $41M next year, which would be a crimp in Minnesota’s salary cap, but quarterbacks are really important, and Darnold is leading a 12-2 team this season.
Rookie JJ McCarthy hasn’t played yet; he’s already had two knee procedures. Will Minnesota really let Darnold walk and let McCarthy take over, with Giants’ reject Daniel Jones as the #2 quarterback? Tough decision they’ll have to face after the season.
— Falcons are benching QB Kirk Cousins, will start rookie Michael Penix this week against the Giants, giving the rookie QB his first NFL start.
Tennessee Titans are benching QB Will Levis; Mason Rudolph is the likely starter- Trevor Siemian is their other QB. Rudolph has a 9-6-1 record as an NFL starter, mostly with Pittsburgh.
Cleveland Browns are benching QB Jameis Winston, will start #3 QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson against Cincinnati. Bailey Zappe is Cleveland’s other QB. Thompson-Robinson was 1-2 as a starter for Cleveland last year.
— Memphis 42, West Virginia 37
Tigers led 28-17 at halftime.
West Virginia outgained Memphis, 534-474
Mountaineers ran ball for 206 yards, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
Memphis threw an 89-yard pass that wasn’t a TD; it was the longest pass play in the country this year that didn’t result in a touchdown.
— Ohio U is playing Jacksonville State in a bowl game in Orlando Friday; both teams have had really good years, so good that both head coaches have already bolted to greener pa$ture$.
Famous birthdays, December 18th:
Steven Spielberg, 78
Bobby Jones, 73 (basketball player)
Roy Howell, 71
Brad Pitt, 61
Charles Oakley, 61
Don Beebe, 60
Dan McGwire, 57
Byron Buxton, 31
Ronald Acuna, 27
Jayden Daniels, 24
— Chicago Cubs traded OF/1B Cody Bellinger to New York Tuesday, in exchange for P Cody Poteet- the Cubs are dumping most of Bellinger’s salary. Chicago will send $5M to New York as part of the deal, but Bellinger is going to make $52.5M the next two years, so the Cubs dump $47.5M in salary.
Bellinger hit 18 homers LY with a .751 OPS; his numbers figure to go up with the short right field fence in the Bronx.
— Baltimore Orioles signed P Tomoyuki Sugano to one-year, $13M deal; the 35-year old Sugano had a 1.67 ERA in 24 starts LY in Japan, but had only 111 strikeouts in 156.2 IP. Sugano has spent his entire 12-year pro career with the Yomiuri Giants.
— Bucks 97, Thunder 81
Milwaukee wins the NBA Cup championship; not sure what that means.
Lakers won its last year; they fired their coach after the season.
Bucks have won 11 of their last 13 games.
— WCC (Gonzaga’s league) is ranked #7 this year; this is the highest the league has been ranked in the last 25 years, partly because having Washington State/Oregon State for this year only has provided a boost.
Oregon State is 12-6, ranked #65; Wazzu is 11-7, ranked #72; they give the WCC more depth than it has had in quite a while.
Of course, Gonzaga is off to the Mountain West in a couple years, and Coogs/Beavers will be back in the Pac-12 then, so the WCC has darker days ahead.
— Florida 90, North Carolina 83
11-0 Gators outscored Carolina 13-3 over the final 4:03
Tar Heels were only 5-28 behind the arc.
SEC is 28-3 against the ACC this year, which is pretty amazing.
— South Carolina 91, Clemson 88 OT
Gamecocks led by 14 in first half; they shot 56% inside the arc.
Clemson led 69-67 with 5:09 left in the game.
Carolina has won five games in a row, after a 3-3 start.
— Drake 73, Kansas State 70 OT
Drake was up 29-9 in first half of this game.
K-State was up by a hoop with 1:19 left to play.
Drake is 10-0, with four starters who were playing D-2 ball last season.
— Dayton 66, UNLV 65
UNLV led 62-58 with 1:25 left in the game.
Dayton shot 63.3% inside the arc.
— Cal-San Diego 75, Utah State 73
Tritons of Big West have won eight in a row, are 10-2.
Cal-San Diego shot 70% inside arc; they were 23-27 on foul line.
— Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)
AAC 1-0 SU/0-1 ATS
Big X 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS
MAC. 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
Sun Belt 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
Favorites: 1-1 ATS
Totals: under 1-1
College hoop teams shooting the best on the foul line:
84.8%— Wisconsin
83.8%— Cal-Irvine
82.4%— Tex-San Antonio
82.2%— Valparaiso
81.5%— Canisius
81.3%— Campbell
Quote of the Day
“He’s got to play better. We have to find a way to get him to play better. We have to play better at the quarterback position.”
Falcons coach Raheem Morris, before he benched Kirk Cousins Tuesday
Wednesday’s quiz
Which NFL team drafted Kirk Cousins in 2012?
Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook has scored the most points.
Monday’s quiz
25 years ago, the Rams won the Super Bowl for the first time, behind QB Kurt Warner, who was the backup during training camp. Trent Green was the Rams’ starting QB that summer, before he blew his knee out in an exhibition game.
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Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……
— NFL teams who get the highest %age of their first downs on 3rd down plays:33.3%- Chiefs
30.4%- Dolphins
29.4%- Broncos
28.8%- Eagles
28.5%- Steelers
— NFL teams who get the lowest %age of their first downs on 3rd down plays:
20.6%- Packers
22.0%- Browns
22.0%- Falcons
22.9%- Lions
23.1%- Vikings
— NFL screwed around with the Week 17 (next week) schedule, moving some games:
Saturday December 28:
Chargers @ Patriots, 1:00
Broncos @ Bengals, 4:00
Cardinals @ Rams, 8:00
Sunday, December 29:
Falcons @ Commanders, 8:20
— Minnesota Vikings are 12-2, having a great year; are they really going to let QB Sam Darnold walk next spring? The franchise tag for a QB figures to be around $41M next year, which would be a crimp in Minnesota’s salary cap, but quarterbacks are really important, and Darnold is leading a 12-2 team this season.
Rookie JJ McCarthy hasn’t played yet; he’s already had two knee procedures. Will Minnesota really let Darnold walk and let McCarthy take over, with Giants’ reject Daniel Jones as the #2 quarterback? Tough decision they’ll have to face after the season.
— Falcons are benching QB Kirk Cousins, will start rookie Michael Penix this week against the Giants, giving the rookie QB his first NFL start.
Tennessee Titans are benching QB Will Levis; Mason Rudolph is the likely starter- Trevor Siemian is their other QB. Rudolph has a 9-6-1 record as an NFL starter, mostly with Pittsburgh.
Cleveland Browns are benching QB Jameis Winston, will start #3 QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson against Cincinnati. Bailey Zappe is Cleveland’s other QB. Thompson-Robinson was 1-2 as a starter for Cleveland last year.
— Memphis 42, West Virginia 37
Tigers led 28-17 at halftime.
West Virginia outgained Memphis, 534-474
Mountaineers ran ball for 206 yards, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
Memphis threw an 89-yard pass that wasn’t a TD; it was the longest pass play in the country this year that didn’t result in a touchdown.
— Ohio U is playing Jacksonville State in a bowl game in Orlando Friday; both teams have had really good years, so good that both head coaches have already bolted to greener pa$ture$.
Famous birthdays, December 18th:
Steven Spielberg, 78
Bobby Jones, 73 (basketball player)
Roy Howell, 71
Brad Pitt, 61
Charles Oakley, 61
Don Beebe, 60
Dan McGwire, 57
Byron Buxton, 31
Ronald Acuna, 27
Jayden Daniels, 24
— Chicago Cubs traded OF/1B Cody Bellinger to New York Tuesday, in exchange for P Cody Poteet- the Cubs are dumping most of Bellinger’s salary. Chicago will send $5M to New York as part of the deal, but Bellinger is going to make $52.5M the next two years, so the Cubs dump $47.5M in salary.
Bellinger hit 18 homers LY with a .751 OPS; his numbers figure to go up with the short right field fence in the Bronx.
— Baltimore Orioles signed P Tomoyuki Sugano to one-year, $13M deal; the 35-year old Sugano had a 1.67 ERA in 24 starts LY in Japan, but had only 111 strikeouts in 156.2 IP. Sugano has spent his entire 12-year pro career with the Yomiuri Giants.
— Bucks 97, Thunder 81
Milwaukee wins the NBA Cup championship; not sure what that means.
Lakers won its last year; they fired their coach after the season.
Bucks have won 11 of their last 13 games.
— WCC (Gonzaga’s league) is ranked #7 this year; this is the highest the league has been ranked in the last 25 years, partly because having Washington State/Oregon State for this year only has provided a boost.
Oregon State is 12-6, ranked #65; Wazzu is 11-7, ranked #72; they give the WCC more depth than it has had in quite a while.
Of course, Gonzaga is off to the Mountain West in a couple years, and Coogs/Beavers will be back in the Pac-12 then, so the WCC has darker days ahead.
— Florida 90, North Carolina 83
11-0 Gators outscored Carolina 13-3 over the final 4:03
Tar Heels were only 5-28 behind the arc.
SEC is 28-3 against the ACC this year, which is pretty amazing.
— South Carolina 91, Clemson 88 OT
Gamecocks led by 14 in first half; they shot 56% inside the arc.
Clemson led 69-67 with 5:09 left in the game.
Carolina has won five games in a row, after a 3-3 start.
— Drake 73, Kansas State 70 OT
Drake was up 29-9 in first half of this game.
K-State was up by a hoop with 1:19 left to play.
Drake is 10-0, with four starters who were playing D-2 ball last season.
— Dayton 66, UNLV 65
UNLV led 62-58 with 1:25 left in the game.
Dayton shot 63.3% inside the arc.
— Cal-San Diego 75, Utah State 73
Tritons of Big West have won eight in a row, are 10-2.
Cal-San Diego shot 70% inside arc; they were 23-27 on foul line.
— Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)
AAC 1-0 SU/0-1 ATS
Big X 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS
MAC. 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
Sun Belt 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
Favorites: 1-1 ATS
Totals: under 1-1
Thursday’s 6-pack:
Most TD passes thrown for the Buffalo Bills:
237— Jim Kelly
192— Josh Allen
181— Joe Ferguson
80— Ryan Fitzpatrick
77— Jack Kemp
55— Drew Bledsoe
Quote of the Day
“I mean, you really want to get me going today. Yeah, I think to be honest with you, I think that’s complete and total bullshit if you want my honest opinion. These guys are tough (bleep)ers, man, they go after it every day……I can’t even wrap my mind around how that would even be a conversation. I mean, just because we don’t win games doesn’t mean we’re soft.”
Titans coach Brian Callahan
Thursday’s quiz
Which two starting QB’s in the NFL have fathers who played major league baseball?
Wednesday’s quiz
Washington Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft.
Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook has scored the most points.
********************************************
Dukes get their first-ever I-A bowl win.
Hilltoppers led 14-7 at halftime.
JMU ran ball for 212 yards, outgained WKU 394-318
— UNLV 24, California 13
Rebels get their first bowl win since 2000.
UNLV won despite completing only 6-19 passes.
Cal’s QB bolted; they used two backups in this game.
— Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)
AAC 1-0 SU/0-1 ATS
ACC 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
Big X 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS
C-USA 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
MAC 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
MWest 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
Sun Belt 2-0 SU/2-0 ATS
Favorites: 2-2 ATS
Totals: under 3-1
— UConn 94, Xavier 89 OT
Xavier shot 13-24 on arc; they led by 5 with 5:16 left.
UConn shot 55.6% inside the arc.
— Oklahoma 87, Michigan 86
11-0 Sooners were down 11 with 9:55 left to play.
Oklahoma was 12-25 on arc, Wolverines 4-28
— Memphis 64, Virginia 62
Virginia led by 11 early in second half.
PJ Haggerty played all 40:00, scored 27 points for 9-2 Memphis
— New Mexico 78, VCU 71
Donovan Dent scored 40 points for the Lobos.
VCU was only 13-24 on the foul line.
— Atlanta Falcons added kicker Riley Patterson to replace Younghoe Koo, who is on IR and is done for the regular season.
— As we speak, the Chicago White Sox win total for 2025 in 49.5, the lowest in recent memory. Last year, the A’s were supposed to suck; their win total was 57.5. White Sox were 41-121, an incredibly terrible season. The 2024 A’s wound up 69-93, by the way.
— Famous birthdays, December 19:
Tim Reid, 80
Kevin McHale, 67
Bill Wegman, 62
Jennifer Beals, 61
Arvydas Sabonis, 60
Joe Slusarski, 58
Tom Gugliotta, 55
Alyssa Milano, 52
Warren Sapp, 52
Jake Plummer, 50
— When the Carolina Panthers were favored over the Cowboys Sunday, it was the first time in 34 games that the Panthers were favored to win. It didn’t go well.
— Former NFL QB Michael Vick is the new football coach at Norfolk State, which went 3-8/4-8 the last two years at the I-AA level.
Vick is 44 years old; he last played in the NFL in 2015 for Pittsburgh. He has no formal coaching experience, but he played QB in the NFL for 13 years and was a coaching intern for the Chiefs five years ago. He’ll need to hire experienced assistant coaches.
— Quarterback TJ Finley should write a book someday; he recently transferred to Tulane, which will be his fifth college team. He’’ll be 23 in March.
2020— started five games for LSU (2-3)
2021-22— started six games for Auburn (2-4)
2023— started the whole season at Texas State (8-5)
2024— started three games for Western Kentucky (2-1)
2025— Tulane.
— Wake Forest hired former Washington State coach Jake Dickert as its new football coach; he replaces Dave Clawson, who is a really good coach, but Wake Forest doesn’t have the resources that its competitors have, so Clawson resigned.
Dickert was 23-20 in three years at Wazzu, 8-4 this season. Washington State wasn’t in a league this year; they’ll eventually be in the re-configured Pac-12 with a lot of Mountain West teams.
— Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia was granted eligibility for the 2025 season, very good news for the Commodores; he’s been arguing that junior college seasons should not count against NCAA eligibility, which could open up a whole new can of worms.
— Modern college football: Alabama poached the long snapper from the Cal Bears.
— In his excellent career, NBA star James Harden has scored 40+ points in 103 games.
Most TD passes thrown for the Buffalo Bills:
237— Jim Kelly
192— Josh Allen
181— Joe Ferguson
80— Ryan Fitzpatrick
77— Jack Kemp
55— Drew Bledsoe
Quote of the Day
“I mean, you really want to get me going today. Yeah, I think to be honest with you, I think that’s complete and total bullshit if you want my honest opinion. These guys are tough (bleep)ers, man, they go after it every day……I can’t even wrap my mind around how that would even be a conversation. I mean, just because we don’t win games doesn’t mean we’re soft.”
Titans coach Brian Callahan
Thursday’s quiz
Which two starting QB’s in the NFL have fathers who played major league baseball?
Wednesday’s quiz
Washington Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft.
Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook has scored the most points.
********************************************
Thursday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….
— James Madison 27, Western Kentucky 17Dukes get their first-ever I-A bowl win.
Hilltoppers led 14-7 at halftime.
JMU ran ball for 212 yards, outgained WKU 394-318
— UNLV 24, California 13
Rebels get their first bowl win since 2000.
UNLV won despite completing only 6-19 passes.
Cal’s QB bolted; they used two backups in this game.
— Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)
AAC 1-0 SU/0-1 ATS
ACC 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
Big X 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS
C-USA 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
MAC 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
MWest 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
Sun Belt 2-0 SU/2-0 ATS
Favorites: 2-2 ATS
Totals: under 3-1
— UConn 94, Xavier 89 OT
Xavier shot 13-24 on arc; they led by 5 with 5:16 left.
UConn shot 55.6% inside the arc.
— Oklahoma 87, Michigan 86
11-0 Sooners were down 11 with 9:55 left to play.
Oklahoma was 12-25 on arc, Wolverines 4-28
— Memphis 64, Virginia 62
Virginia led by 11 early in second half.
PJ Haggerty played all 40:00, scored 27 points for 9-2 Memphis
— New Mexico 78, VCU 71
Donovan Dent scored 40 points for the Lobos.
VCU was only 13-24 on the foul line.
— Atlanta Falcons added kicker Riley Patterson to replace Younghoe Koo, who is on IR and is done for the regular season.
— As we speak, the Chicago White Sox win total for 2025 in 49.5, the lowest in recent memory. Last year, the A’s were supposed to suck; their win total was 57.5. White Sox were 41-121, an incredibly terrible season. The 2024 A’s wound up 69-93, by the way.
— Famous birthdays, December 19:
Tim Reid, 80
Kevin McHale, 67
Bill Wegman, 62
Jennifer Beals, 61
Arvydas Sabonis, 60
Joe Slusarski, 58
Tom Gugliotta, 55
Alyssa Milano, 52
Warren Sapp, 52
Jake Plummer, 50
— When the Carolina Panthers were favored over the Cowboys Sunday, it was the first time in 34 games that the Panthers were favored to win. It didn’t go well.
— Former NFL QB Michael Vick is the new football coach at Norfolk State, which went 3-8/4-8 the last two years at the I-AA level.
Vick is 44 years old; he last played in the NFL in 2015 for Pittsburgh. He has no formal coaching experience, but he played QB in the NFL for 13 years and was a coaching intern for the Chiefs five years ago. He’ll need to hire experienced assistant coaches.
— Quarterback TJ Finley should write a book someday; he recently transferred to Tulane, which will be his fifth college team. He’’ll be 23 in March.
2020— started five games for LSU (2-3)
2021-22— started six games for Auburn (2-4)
2023— started the whole season at Texas State (8-5)
2024— started three games for Western Kentucky (2-1)
2025— Tulane.
— Wake Forest hired former Washington State coach Jake Dickert as its new football coach; he replaces Dave Clawson, who is a really good coach, but Wake Forest doesn’t have the resources that its competitors have, so Clawson resigned.
Dickert was 23-20 in three years at Wazzu, 8-4 this season. Washington State wasn’t in a league this year; they’ll eventually be in the re-configured Pac-12 with a lot of Mountain West teams.
— Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia was granted eligibility for the 2025 season, very good news for the Commodores; he’s been arguing that junior college seasons should not count against NCAA eligibility, which could open up a whole new can of worms.
— Modern college football: Alabama poached the long snapper from the Cal Bears.
— In his excellent career, NBA star James Harden has scored 40+ points in 103 games.
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 16
Sunday’s games
Rams (-3) @ Jets
Rams (8-6)
Rams won seven of their last nine games, after a 1-4 start.
Rams are 5-0 scoring 26+ points, 3-6 scoring less than 26.
11 of their 14 games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
Rams won/covered their last four road games.
Team total: under 9-5
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3-1 last ten
Rams won/covered their last four road games.
Favorites are 6-1 ATS in their road games.
Last nine games, Rams are +6 in turnovers.
Rams are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
LA is 6-10-1 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 3-1 in their last four road games.
Rams are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games vs AFC teams.
NFC West road favorites are 5-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets (4-10)
Jets are 2-9 SU/3-8 ATS in last 11 games.
Four of their last five losses were by 3-1-5-6 points.
Jets are 3-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 1-9 if they allow 23+.
Jets are 0-6 scoring less than 21 points.
Team total: under 6-4 last ten
Opponents’ team total: over 8-1 last nine
Jets are 2-4 SU/ATS at home this season.
Jets are 9-14 ATS last 23 games as a home underdog.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Jets are 2-7 SU/3-6 ATS since their coaching change.
Last five games, Jets allowed 28.4 points/game.
AFC East underdogs are 12-16 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets won three of last four series games.
Jets (+17) won last meeting 23-20, four years ago.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Eagles (-3.5) @ Commanders
Eagles (12-2)
Eagles are 10-0 SU/7-3 ATS in their last ten games.
Last four weeks, Eagles ran ball for 204.4 yards/game.
Eagles outscored last nine opponents 115-68 in first half.
LW, Philly had two WR’s with 100+ receiving yards.
Team total: over 7-2 last nine
Opponents’ team total: under 7-3 last ten
Philly is 6-1 SU/ATS in true road games this year.
Last eight games, Eagles are +9 in turnovers.
QB Hurts is 48-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 4-3-1 ATS in last eight NFC East road games.
Eagles are 7-4 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
Under is 5-1 in their last six games.
Eagles held 8 of last 10 opponents under 300 TY.
Commanders (9-5)
Washington won last two games 42-19/20-19, after an 0-3 skid.
Commanders are 1-5 if they give up more than 22 points.
Rookie QB Daniels is 9-5 as an NFL starter.
Washington held last three opponents to 65 rushing yards/game.
Team total: over 10-4
Opponents’ team total: under 8-6
Washington allowed 26+ points in all five losses.
Commanders are 5-2 SU/ATS at home this season.
Washington was held under 300 TY in three of five losses.
Commanders are 4-8-2 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.
Commanders are 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 NFC East home games.
Over is 3-0 in their last three home games.
Eagles (-4.5) beat Washington 26-18 at home in Week 11.
Philly ran for 228 yards, outgained Commanders 434-264
Eagles won six of last seven series games.
Philly is 6-1 SU/4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits here.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Giants @ Falcons (-8.5)
Giants (2-12)
Giants are 0-9 SU/1-8 ATS in last nine games.
Giants are 2-4 SU/ATS on road this year.
Giants haven’t had a positive turnover ratio in any games TY.
Team total: under 8-6
Opponents’ team total: over 7-1 last eight
Last nine games, Giants were outscored 125-39 in first half.
Under Daboll, Giants are 11-9 ATS as a road underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 15-13-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB Lock is 9-16 as an NFL starter.
Under is 9-5 in their games this season.
Last four weeks, Giants gained 263.3 yards/game.
NFC East road underdogs are 10-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Falcons (7-7)
Rookie QB Penix gets his first NFL start here.
Atlanta is 1-4 SU/ATS last five games, after a 6-3 start.
Falcons were held to 21 or fewer points in all seven losses.
Atlanta scored 22= points in six of its seven wins.
Team total: under 6-2 last eight
Opponents’ team total: over 6-4-1 last 11
Atlanta is 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS at home this year.
Falcons are 6-18-1 ATS last 25 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
Last six games, Atlanta is minus-7 in turnovers
Six of Falcons’ last eight games stayed under the total.
NFC South home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Falcons won last three meetings, by 3-3-4 points.
Giants lost 23-20/34-0 in last two visits to Atlanta.
Under is 6-0 in last six series games.
Cardinals (-5) @ Panthers
Cardinals (7-7)
Cardinals are 2-4 SU on road; both wins were by one point.
Arizona is 1-3 since its bye; they lost three of last four on road.
Arizona is 6-1 scoring 24+ points, 1-6 scoring less than 24.
In its seven wins, Arizona outscored foes 94-44 in second half.
Team total: over 8-6
Opponents’ team total: under 9-5
Last three years, Arizona is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Last three weeks, Cardinals gained average of 385.7 yards/game.
Arizona is 3-1 in games decided by 5 or fewer points.
Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Cardinals held four of last six opponents under 300 total yards.
NFC West favorites are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Panthers (3-11)
Carolina lost its last four games, is 5-1 ATS in last six.
Five of their last six games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Last three weeks, Panthers gave up 236-209-211 rushing yards.
QB Young is 4-21 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 7-6-1
Opponents’ team total: over 9-5
Carolina is 4-6 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Panthers are 11-8-1 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.
Carolina is 3-1 ATS in its last four home games.
Over is 10-4 in Carolina games this year.
Carolina is 0-10 when they give up more than 22 points..
NFC South home underdogs are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Panthers won four of last five series games.
Cardinals are 2-5 SU/2-4-1 ATS in last seven visits to Charlotte
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Browns @ Bengals (-7.5)
Browns (3-11)
#3 QB Thompson-Robinson gets his first start TY
Thompson-Robinson is 1-2 as an NFL starter (starts were LY)
Cleveland is 1-10 when they score less than 24 points.
Browns lost five of last six games, giving up 28.3 ppg
Team total: under 11-3
Opponents’ team total: over 8-6
Browns are 6-16-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a loss.
Browns are 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS on road this season.
Browns are 11-18-1 in last 30 games as a road underdog.
Cleveland allowed 20+ points in 12 of 14 games.
Browns are minus-11 in turnovers the last four games.
Browns are 4-12 ATS in last 16 AFC North road games.
Bengals (6-8)
Bengals won last two games, scoring 27-37 points, after a 1-4 skid.
Last six games, Bengals scored 34 ppg, but went 3-3
Bengals are 5-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 1-7 if they allow more than 24.
Over is 10-3 in their last thirteen games.
Team total: over 9-5
Opponents’ team total: over 9-4-1
Bengals are 1-5 SU/ATS at home this season.
Bengals are 10-7-2 ATS last 19 games as a home fave (1-4 TY).
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in last five AFC North home games.
Bengals are 16-7-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win
Four of their six wins are by 10+ points.
QB Burrow is 40-32-1 as an NFL starter.
Bengals (-5.5) won 21-14 in Cleveland in Week 5.
Browns outgained Cincinnati 336-233, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
Under is 3-1-1 in last five meetings.
Titans @ Colts (-3.5)
Titans (3-11)
Titans will start backup QB Rudolph this week.
He is 9-6-1 as an NFL starter, mostly with Pittsburgh
Titans lost three in row, five of last six games.
Tennessee is 2-8 SU/1-9 ATS in last ten games.
Team total: under 9-4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 7-4-3
Titans are 2-8 ATS as an underdog this season.
Tennessee is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
Tennessee has been outscored 193-116 in second half.
Six of their last seven losses were by 10+ points.
Tennessee is minus-13 in turnovers, with 16 takeaways.
Tennessee is 2-8 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
Titans are 10-6 ATS in last 16 AFC South road games.
Colts (6-8)
Indy lost 5 of last 7 games, are 1-5 ATS in last six games,
Colts don’t have a win by more than six points.
Colts are 3-7 when they give up 20+ points.
Colts have played 11 games (6-5) decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: under 6-6-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4 last nine
QB Richardson is 7-7 as an NFL starter.
Colts are 4-1 ATS last five games as a home favorite (2-0 TY)
Indy is 12-13 ATS in last 25 games coning off a loss.
Over is 4-1 in Colts last five games.
Colts are 4-2 if they score more than 20 points, 2-6 if they don’t.
Indy is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 AFC South home games.
Colts (+2.5) won 20-17 at Tennessee in Week 6.
Indy outscored Titans 10-0 in 4th quarter of the game.
Colts won/covered last three series games.
Colts are 4-2 SU/ATS in last six visits to Nashville.
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
Lions (-6.5) @ Bears
Lions (12-2)
Detroit won 11 of its last 12 games (8-4 ATS).
Last two games, Lions gave up 31-48 points.
Lions gave up 10.6 yards/pass attempt last week.
Detroit is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS on road this season.
Team total: over 7-4 last eleven
Opponents’ team total: under 8-6
Under Campbell, Lions are 8-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 7-1 ATS in NFC North road games.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 10-4 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Lions have outscored opponents 64-16 in last 2:00 of each half.
QB Goff is 82-56-1 as an NFL starter, 38-26-1 with Detroit.
This is only 2nd outdoor game for Detroit TY (W24-14 at Lambeau Week 9)
Bears (4-10)
Bears are 0-8 SU/2-6 ATS in last eight games.
Bears are 3-3 SU/4-2 ATS at home this year.
Chicago was outscored 68-25 in two games without Eberflus.
Bears scored 24+ points in their wins (0-9 score less than 24)
Team total: under 8-5-1
Opponents’ team total: under 9-5
Bears are 7-5 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Chicago is 13-16-2 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss.
Last four weeks, Bears ran ball for 84.3 yards/game.
Last seven games, Bears are 0-8, despite being +4 in turnovers.
Chicago is 3-11 ATS in last 14 NFC North home games.
Bears are 0-9 when they allow 19+ points.
Bears (+10) lost 23-20 in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.
Detroit won four of last five series games.
Lions are 2-4 SU/ATS in last six visits to Chicago.
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Vikings (-3) @ Seahawks
Vikings (12-2)
Minnesota won last seven games, scoring 31.3 ppg in last four.
Vikings allowed 31-30 points in their two losses.
Minnesota is 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS on road this season.
Vikings are 7-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: over 9-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 8-6
Short week for Vikings after their home win Monday night.
Under O’Connell, Minnesota is 9-2-2-ATS as a road favorite.
Minnesota has 27 takeaways in 13 games (+7 turnovers).
Minnesota gave up 391/386 TY in its two losses.
QB Darnold is 32-37 as an NFL starter, 11-2 with Vikings.
Vikings are 13-4-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
Last three games, Vikings are +4 in turnovers.
Seahawks (8-5)
Seahawks are 4-0 since their bye, giving up 17-6-21-18 points.
Seattle allowed 26+ points in losses, 21 or less in wins.
Seahawks are 15-21-2 ATS in last 38 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 9-4
Opponents’ team total: over 7-6
QB Smith is 38-42 as an NFL starter, 26-23 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 11-10-1 in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Seattle was held under 300 TY in four of last six games.
Under is 4-3 in their last seven games.
Seattle is 4-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Seahawks are minus-9 in turnovers in losses, +4 in wins.
Teams haven’t met since 2021
Seahawks won six of last seven series games.
Vikings are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS last five visits to Seattle.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Patriots @ Bills (-14)
Patriots (3-11)
Patriots are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in last four games.
Last four games, New England gave up 28-34-25-30 points.
Patriots are 1-11 when they allow more than 10 points.
Patriots are 3-5 ATS last eight AFC East road games.
Team total: under 7-5-1
Opponents’ team total: over 4-0 last four
NE is 11-23-1 ATS in last 35 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 32-50 SU since Tom Brady left town.
Patriots are 3-4 ATS as a road underdog this year.
Rookie QB Maye is 2-7 as an NFL starter.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Five of Patriots’ 11 losses were by 14+ points.
Bills (11-3)
Buffalo split its last two games, 42-44/48-42.
Bills won eight of their last nine games (7-2 ATS)
Buffalo gave up 35-23-44 points in its losses (9-0 allow less than 23).
Last ten games, Bills are +13 in turnovers (18-5).
Team total: over 12-2
Opponents’ team total: under 8-6
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite TY.
Bills are 7-3 ATS TY in games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 79-38 as an NFL starter.
Last nine Buffalo games went over the total.
Buffalo is 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 AFC East home games.
Last two games, Bills gave up 457-521 yards, with both games in domes.
Last two games, Bills threw ball for 342/362 yards.
Bills are 7-2 SU/5-4 ATS in last six meetings.
Patriots are 1-4 SU/3-2 ATS in last five visits to Buffalo.
Over is 6-2 in last eight series games.
Jaguars @ Raiders (-1.5)
Jaguars (3-11)
Jaguars lost six of their last seven games (5-2 ATS).
Jaguars covered six of their last eight games.
Last four games, Jaguars are minus-6 in turnovers.
Team total: under 8-6
Opponents’ team total: over 6-4 last ten
Jaguars are 2-8 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Jaguars are 6-3 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Jaguars are 1-11 if they score less than 32 points.
Jaguars are 1-10 if they give up 18+ points.
Backup QB Jones is 19-28 as an NFL starter.
Seven of their last ten games went over the total.
AFC South road underdogs are 4-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jaguars are 9-12-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Raiders (2-12)
Raiders are 0-10 SU/3-7 ATS in last ten games
Raiders have 28 turnovers in 14 games (minus-19).
Last three weeks, Las Vegas scored only 13 ppg.
How are the Raiders favored over anyone???
Raiders are 1-3 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Team total: over 8-6
Opponents’ team total: over 9-5
Raiders are 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS at home this season.
Last two weeks, Raiders were held to 286-249 TY.
QB O’Connell is back; he is 5-9 as a starter, 0-4 TY.
Under is 3-0 in their last three games.
Las Vegas is 18-24-1 ATS in last 43 games coming off a loss.
AFC West favorites are 15-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jaguars are 5-3 in last eight series games.
Jaguars split their last four visits to Oakland
This is their first-ever visit to Las Vegas.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
49ers @ Dolphins (-1)
49ers (6-7)
49ers lost four of last five games, are 1-5 ATS since their bye.
49ers are 1-7 when they score less than 30 points.
Last five weeks, 49ers are minus-8 in turnovers. .
49ers are 0-7 when they gain less than 400 yards.
Team total: under 8-6
Opponents’ team total: over 8-5-1
49ers are 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS on the road this year.
49ers are 13-9 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
QB Purdy is 27-12 as an NFL starter.
Over is 8-4 in their last 12 games.
49ers are 5-9 ATS last 14 games vs AFC teams.
49ers are 9-11 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points.
NFC West road teams are 7-8-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dolphins (6-8)
Dolphins won last three home games, scoring 34-34-32 points.
Miami is 1-7 when it gives up 20+ points, 5-1 if they allow less.
Last two games, Miami is 5-22 on 3rd down
Tagovailoa is 37-25 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 7-6-1
Opponents’ team total: over 8-6
Miami is 2-5 ATS at home this season.
In games 5-8, Dolphins ran ball for 170 yards/game.
Last six games, Miami ran ball for 58.2 yards/game.
Dolphins are 11-16 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
Over is 5-0 in their last five home games.
Miami is 9-12 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less points.
AFC East home teams are 6-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split last four meetings.
49ers lost 31-24/14-9 in last two visits to Miami (last one, 2016).
Last four series games went over the total.
Buccaneers (-4) @ Cowboys
Buccaneers (8-6)
Bucs are 4-0 since their bye, scoring 30-26-28-40 points.
Bucs are 2-4 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU/ATS on the road this year.
Bucs are 9-6 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 11-3
Opponents’ team total: over 8-6
Bucs are 5-2 SU/ATS on the road this season.
Under Bowles, Tampa Bay is 5-5 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Mayfield is 50-54 as an NFL starter, 18-15 with Buccaneers.
Eight of Tampa Bay’s last 11 games went over the total.
Bucs are 3-1 SU/ATS in domed stadiums this year.
Bucs held last five opponents under 100 yards rushing.
NFC South road teams are 9-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cowboys (6-8)
Dallas won three of its last four games, after an 0-5 skid.
Cowboys are 1-8 when they allow more than 20 points.
Last seven games, Cowboys gave up 27 TD’s on 88 drives.
Dallas is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Team total: under 7-4 last eleven
Opponents’ team total: over 6-3 last nine
Dallas is 4-3 SU/ATS at home this season.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS last eight games as a home dog.
Backup QB Rush is 8-4 as an NFL starter.
Cowboys converted only 27 of last 79 third down plays.
Over is 8-3 in last eleven Dallas games.
Dallas is minus-11 in turnovers in its losses, +8 in wins.
NFC East non-divisional home underdogs are 1-7 ATS
Teams split their last six meetings.
Bucs are 1-5 SU/3-2-1 in last six visits to Dallas.
Under is 7-1 in last eight series games.
Monday’s game
Saints @ Packers (-14.5)
Saints (5-9)
New Orleans is 3-2 SU/ATS since their coaching change.
Saints failed on 2-point try on last play of LW’s 20-19 loss.
New Orleans is 2-9 when it scores less than 35 points.
Saints are 0-8 when they give up 20+ points.
Team total: under 6-2 last eight
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1 last five
Saints are 16-7-1 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Saints are 2-5 in one-score games this year.
#3 QB Rattler is 0-4 as a starter this year.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
NFC South road underdogs are 7-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Saints are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS in outdoor games this year.
Packers (10-4)
Packers won eight of last ten games (4-0 ATS last four).
Green Bay has four wins by 16+ points.
Last four weeks, Green Bay scored 32.3 points/game.
This is Packers’ third night game in four weeks.
Team total: over 9-5
Opponents’ team total: under 10-3 last 13
GB is 5-4-1 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite (3-3 TY).
Packers are 10-7 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Green Bay is 9-0 when they allow less than 24 points.
Under is 5-2 in their home games.
Last four games, Green Bay is +5 in turnovers.
NFC North home favorites are 12-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split their last ten meetings.
Saints are 1-3 SU/2-1-1 ATS last four visits to Lambeau
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 16
Sunday’s games
Rams (-3) @ Jets
Rams (8-6)
Rams won seven of their last nine games, after a 1-4 start.
Rams are 5-0 scoring 26+ points, 3-6 scoring less than 26.
11 of their 14 games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
Rams won/covered their last four road games.
Team total: under 9-5
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3-1 last ten
Rams won/covered their last four road games.
Favorites are 6-1 ATS in their road games.
Last nine games, Rams are +6 in turnovers.
Rams are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
LA is 6-10-1 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 3-1 in their last four road games.
Rams are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games vs AFC teams.
NFC West road favorites are 5-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets (4-10)
Jets are 2-9 SU/3-8 ATS in last 11 games.
Four of their last five losses were by 3-1-5-6 points.
Jets are 3-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 1-9 if they allow 23+.
Jets are 0-6 scoring less than 21 points.
Team total: under 6-4 last ten
Opponents’ team total: over 8-1 last nine
Jets are 2-4 SU/ATS at home this season.
Jets are 9-14 ATS last 23 games as a home underdog.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Jets are 2-7 SU/3-6 ATS since their coaching change.
Last five games, Jets allowed 28.4 points/game.
AFC East underdogs are 12-16 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets won three of last four series games.
Jets (+17) won last meeting 23-20, four years ago.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Eagles (-3.5) @ Commanders
Eagles (12-2)
Eagles are 10-0 SU/7-3 ATS in their last ten games.
Last four weeks, Eagles ran ball for 204.4 yards/game.
Eagles outscored last nine opponents 115-68 in first half.
LW, Philly had two WR’s with 100+ receiving yards.
Team total: over 7-2 last nine
Opponents’ team total: under 7-3 last ten
Philly is 6-1 SU/ATS in true road games this year.
Last eight games, Eagles are +9 in turnovers.
QB Hurts is 48-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 4-3-1 ATS in last eight NFC East road games.
Eagles are 7-4 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
Under is 5-1 in their last six games.
Eagles held 8 of last 10 opponents under 300 TY.
Commanders (9-5)
Washington won last two games 42-19/20-19, after an 0-3 skid.
Commanders are 1-5 if they give up more than 22 points.
Rookie QB Daniels is 9-5 as an NFL starter.
Washington held last three opponents to 65 rushing yards/game.
Team total: over 10-4
Opponents’ team total: under 8-6
Washington allowed 26+ points in all five losses.
Commanders are 5-2 SU/ATS at home this season.
Washington was held under 300 TY in three of five losses.
Commanders are 4-8-2 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.
Commanders are 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 NFC East home games.
Over is 3-0 in their last three home games.
Eagles (-4.5) beat Washington 26-18 at home in Week 11.
Philly ran for 228 yards, outgained Commanders 434-264
Eagles won six of last seven series games.
Philly is 6-1 SU/4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits here.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Giants @ Falcons (-8.5)
Giants (2-12)
Giants are 0-9 SU/1-8 ATS in last nine games.
Giants are 2-4 SU/ATS on road this year.
Giants haven’t had a positive turnover ratio in any games TY.
Team total: under 8-6
Opponents’ team total: over 7-1 last eight
Last nine games, Giants were outscored 125-39 in first half.
Under Daboll, Giants are 11-9 ATS as a road underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 15-13-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB Lock is 9-16 as an NFL starter.
Under is 9-5 in their games this season.
Last four weeks, Giants gained 263.3 yards/game.
NFC East road underdogs are 10-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Falcons (7-7)
Rookie QB Penix gets his first NFL start here.
Atlanta is 1-4 SU/ATS last five games, after a 6-3 start.
Falcons were held to 21 or fewer points in all seven losses.
Atlanta scored 22= points in six of its seven wins.
Team total: under 6-2 last eight
Opponents’ team total: over 6-4-1 last 11
Atlanta is 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS at home this year.
Falcons are 6-18-1 ATS last 25 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
Last six games, Atlanta is minus-7 in turnovers
Six of Falcons’ last eight games stayed under the total.
NFC South home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Falcons won last three meetings, by 3-3-4 points.
Giants lost 23-20/34-0 in last two visits to Atlanta.
Under is 6-0 in last six series games.
Cardinals (-5) @ Panthers
Cardinals (7-7)
Cardinals are 2-4 SU on road; both wins were by one point.
Arizona is 1-3 since its bye; they lost three of last four on road.
Arizona is 6-1 scoring 24+ points, 1-6 scoring less than 24.
In its seven wins, Arizona outscored foes 94-44 in second half.
Team total: over 8-6
Opponents’ team total: under 9-5
Last three years, Arizona is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Last three weeks, Cardinals gained average of 385.7 yards/game.
Arizona is 3-1 in games decided by 5 or fewer points.
Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Cardinals held four of last six opponents under 300 total yards.
NFC West favorites are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Panthers (3-11)
Carolina lost its last four games, is 5-1 ATS in last six.
Five of their last six games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Last three weeks, Panthers gave up 236-209-211 rushing yards.
QB Young is 4-21 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 7-6-1
Opponents’ team total: over 9-5
Carolina is 4-6 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Panthers are 11-8-1 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.
Carolina is 3-1 ATS in its last four home games.
Over is 10-4 in Carolina games this year.
Carolina is 0-10 when they give up more than 22 points..
NFC South home underdogs are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Panthers won four of last five series games.
Cardinals are 2-5 SU/2-4-1 ATS in last seven visits to Charlotte
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Browns @ Bengals (-7.5)
Browns (3-11)
#3 QB Thompson-Robinson gets his first start TY
Thompson-Robinson is 1-2 as an NFL starter (starts were LY)
Cleveland is 1-10 when they score less than 24 points.
Browns lost five of last six games, giving up 28.3 ppg
Team total: under 11-3
Opponents’ team total: over 8-6
Browns are 6-16-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a loss.
Browns are 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS on road this season.
Browns are 11-18-1 in last 30 games as a road underdog.
Cleveland allowed 20+ points in 12 of 14 games.
Browns are minus-11 in turnovers the last four games.
Browns are 4-12 ATS in last 16 AFC North road games.
Bengals (6-8)
Bengals won last two games, scoring 27-37 points, after a 1-4 skid.
Last six games, Bengals scored 34 ppg, but went 3-3
Bengals are 5-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 1-7 if they allow more than 24.
Over is 10-3 in their last thirteen games.
Team total: over 9-5
Opponents’ team total: over 9-4-1
Bengals are 1-5 SU/ATS at home this season.
Bengals are 10-7-2 ATS last 19 games as a home fave (1-4 TY).
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in last five AFC North home games.
Bengals are 16-7-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win
Four of their six wins are by 10+ points.
QB Burrow is 40-32-1 as an NFL starter.
Bengals (-5.5) won 21-14 in Cleveland in Week 5.
Browns outgained Cincinnati 336-233, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
Under is 3-1-1 in last five meetings.
Titans @ Colts (-3.5)
Titans (3-11)
Titans will start backup QB Rudolph this week.
He is 9-6-1 as an NFL starter, mostly with Pittsburgh
Titans lost three in row, five of last six games.
Tennessee is 2-8 SU/1-9 ATS in last ten games.
Team total: under 9-4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 7-4-3
Titans are 2-8 ATS as an underdog this season.
Tennessee is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
Tennessee has been outscored 193-116 in second half.
Six of their last seven losses were by 10+ points.
Tennessee is minus-13 in turnovers, with 16 takeaways.
Tennessee is 2-8 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
Titans are 10-6 ATS in last 16 AFC South road games.
Colts (6-8)
Indy lost 5 of last 7 games, are 1-5 ATS in last six games,
Colts don’t have a win by more than six points.
Colts are 3-7 when they give up 20+ points.
Colts have played 11 games (6-5) decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: under 6-6-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4 last nine
QB Richardson is 7-7 as an NFL starter.
Colts are 4-1 ATS last five games as a home favorite (2-0 TY)
Indy is 12-13 ATS in last 25 games coning off a loss.
Over is 4-1 in Colts last five games.
Colts are 4-2 if they score more than 20 points, 2-6 if they don’t.
Indy is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 AFC South home games.
Colts (+2.5) won 20-17 at Tennessee in Week 6.
Indy outscored Titans 10-0 in 4th quarter of the game.
Colts won/covered last three series games.
Colts are 4-2 SU/ATS in last six visits to Nashville.
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
Lions (-6.5) @ Bears
Lions (12-2)
Detroit won 11 of its last 12 games (8-4 ATS).
Last two games, Lions gave up 31-48 points.
Lions gave up 10.6 yards/pass attempt last week.
Detroit is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS on road this season.
Team total: over 7-4 last eleven
Opponents’ team total: under 8-6
Under Campbell, Lions are 8-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 7-1 ATS in NFC North road games.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 10-4 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Lions have outscored opponents 64-16 in last 2:00 of each half.
QB Goff is 82-56-1 as an NFL starter, 38-26-1 with Detroit.
This is only 2nd outdoor game for Detroit TY (W24-14 at Lambeau Week 9)
Bears (4-10)
Bears are 0-8 SU/2-6 ATS in last eight games.
Bears are 3-3 SU/4-2 ATS at home this year.
Chicago was outscored 68-25 in two games without Eberflus.
Bears scored 24+ points in their wins (0-9 score less than 24)
Team total: under 8-5-1
Opponents’ team total: under 9-5
Bears are 7-5 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Chicago is 13-16-2 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss.
Last four weeks, Bears ran ball for 84.3 yards/game.
Last seven games, Bears are 0-8, despite being +4 in turnovers.
Chicago is 3-11 ATS in last 14 NFC North home games.
Bears are 0-9 when they allow 19+ points.
Bears (+10) lost 23-20 in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.
Detroit won four of last five series games.
Lions are 2-4 SU/ATS in last six visits to Chicago.
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Vikings (-3) @ Seahawks
Vikings (12-2)
Minnesota won last seven games, scoring 31.3 ppg in last four.
Vikings allowed 31-30 points in their two losses.
Minnesota is 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS on road this season.
Vikings are 7-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: over 9-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 8-6
Short week for Vikings after their home win Monday night.
Under O’Connell, Minnesota is 9-2-2-ATS as a road favorite.
Minnesota has 27 takeaways in 13 games (+7 turnovers).
Minnesota gave up 391/386 TY in its two losses.
QB Darnold is 32-37 as an NFL starter, 11-2 with Vikings.
Vikings are 13-4-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
Last three games, Vikings are +4 in turnovers.
Seahawks (8-5)
Seahawks are 4-0 since their bye, giving up 17-6-21-18 points.
Seattle allowed 26+ points in losses, 21 or less in wins.
Seahawks are 15-21-2 ATS in last 38 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 9-4
Opponents’ team total: over 7-6
QB Smith is 38-42 as an NFL starter, 26-23 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 11-10-1 in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Seattle was held under 300 TY in four of last six games.
Under is 4-3 in their last seven games.
Seattle is 4-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Seahawks are minus-9 in turnovers in losses, +4 in wins.
Teams haven’t met since 2021
Seahawks won six of last seven series games.
Vikings are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS last five visits to Seattle.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Patriots @ Bills (-14)
Patriots (3-11)
Patriots are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in last four games.
Last four games, New England gave up 28-34-25-30 points.
Patriots are 1-11 when they allow more than 10 points.
Patriots are 3-5 ATS last eight AFC East road games.
Team total: under 7-5-1
Opponents’ team total: over 4-0 last four
NE is 11-23-1 ATS in last 35 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 32-50 SU since Tom Brady left town.
Patriots are 3-4 ATS as a road underdog this year.
Rookie QB Maye is 2-7 as an NFL starter.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Five of Patriots’ 11 losses were by 14+ points.
Bills (11-3)
Buffalo split its last two games, 42-44/48-42.
Bills won eight of their last nine games (7-2 ATS)
Buffalo gave up 35-23-44 points in its losses (9-0 allow less than 23).
Last ten games, Bills are +13 in turnovers (18-5).
Team total: over 12-2
Opponents’ team total: under 8-6
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite TY.
Bills are 7-3 ATS TY in games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 79-38 as an NFL starter.
Last nine Buffalo games went over the total.
Buffalo is 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 AFC East home games.
Last two games, Bills gave up 457-521 yards, with both games in domes.
Last two games, Bills threw ball for 342/362 yards.
Bills are 7-2 SU/5-4 ATS in last six meetings.
Patriots are 1-4 SU/3-2 ATS in last five visits to Buffalo.
Over is 6-2 in last eight series games.
Jaguars @ Raiders (-1.5)
Jaguars (3-11)
Jaguars lost six of their last seven games (5-2 ATS).
Jaguars covered six of their last eight games.
Last four games, Jaguars are minus-6 in turnovers.
Team total: under 8-6
Opponents’ team total: over 6-4 last ten
Jaguars are 2-8 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Jaguars are 6-3 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Jaguars are 1-11 if they score less than 32 points.
Jaguars are 1-10 if they give up 18+ points.
Backup QB Jones is 19-28 as an NFL starter.
Seven of their last ten games went over the total.
AFC South road underdogs are 4-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jaguars are 9-12-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Raiders (2-12)
Raiders are 0-10 SU/3-7 ATS in last ten games
Raiders have 28 turnovers in 14 games (minus-19).
Last three weeks, Las Vegas scored only 13 ppg.
How are the Raiders favored over anyone???
Raiders are 1-3 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Team total: over 8-6
Opponents’ team total: over 9-5
Raiders are 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS at home this season.
Last two weeks, Raiders were held to 286-249 TY.
QB O’Connell is back; he is 5-9 as a starter, 0-4 TY.
Under is 3-0 in their last three games.
Las Vegas is 18-24-1 ATS in last 43 games coming off a loss.
AFC West favorites are 15-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jaguars are 5-3 in last eight series games.
Jaguars split their last four visits to Oakland
This is their first-ever visit to Las Vegas.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
49ers @ Dolphins (-1)
49ers (6-7)
49ers lost four of last five games, are 1-5 ATS since their bye.
49ers are 1-7 when they score less than 30 points.
Last five weeks, 49ers are minus-8 in turnovers. .
49ers are 0-7 when they gain less than 400 yards.
Team total: under 8-6
Opponents’ team total: over 8-5-1
49ers are 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS on the road this year.
49ers are 13-9 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
QB Purdy is 27-12 as an NFL starter.
Over is 8-4 in their last 12 games.
49ers are 5-9 ATS last 14 games vs AFC teams.
49ers are 9-11 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points.
NFC West road teams are 7-8-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dolphins (6-8)
Dolphins won last three home games, scoring 34-34-32 points.
Miami is 1-7 when it gives up 20+ points, 5-1 if they allow less.
Last two games, Miami is 5-22 on 3rd down
Tagovailoa is 37-25 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 7-6-1
Opponents’ team total: over 8-6
Miami is 2-5 ATS at home this season.
In games 5-8, Dolphins ran ball for 170 yards/game.
Last six games, Miami ran ball for 58.2 yards/game.
Dolphins are 11-16 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
Over is 5-0 in their last five home games.
Miami is 9-12 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less points.
AFC East home teams are 6-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split last four meetings.
49ers lost 31-24/14-9 in last two visits to Miami (last one, 2016).
Last four series games went over the total.
Buccaneers (-4) @ Cowboys
Buccaneers (8-6)
Bucs are 4-0 since their bye, scoring 30-26-28-40 points.
Bucs are 2-4 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU/ATS on the road this year.
Bucs are 9-6 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 11-3
Opponents’ team total: over 8-6
Bucs are 5-2 SU/ATS on the road this season.
Under Bowles, Tampa Bay is 5-5 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Mayfield is 50-54 as an NFL starter, 18-15 with Buccaneers.
Eight of Tampa Bay’s last 11 games went over the total.
Bucs are 3-1 SU/ATS in domed stadiums this year.
Bucs held last five opponents under 100 yards rushing.
NFC South road teams are 9-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cowboys (6-8)
Dallas won three of its last four games, after an 0-5 skid.
Cowboys are 1-8 when they allow more than 20 points.
Last seven games, Cowboys gave up 27 TD’s on 88 drives.
Dallas is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Team total: under 7-4 last eleven
Opponents’ team total: over 6-3 last nine
Dallas is 4-3 SU/ATS at home this season.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS last eight games as a home dog.
Backup QB Rush is 8-4 as an NFL starter.
Cowboys converted only 27 of last 79 third down plays.
Over is 8-3 in last eleven Dallas games.
Dallas is minus-11 in turnovers in its losses, +8 in wins.
NFC East non-divisional home underdogs are 1-7 ATS
Teams split their last six meetings.
Bucs are 1-5 SU/3-2-1 in last six visits to Dallas.
Under is 7-1 in last eight series games.
Monday’s game
Saints @ Packers (-14.5)
Saints (5-9)
New Orleans is 3-2 SU/ATS since their coaching change.
Saints failed on 2-point try on last play of LW’s 20-19 loss.
New Orleans is 2-9 when it scores less than 35 points.
Saints are 0-8 when they give up 20+ points.
Team total: under 6-2 last eight
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1 last five
Saints are 16-7-1 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Saints are 2-5 in one-score games this year.
#3 QB Rattler is 0-4 as a starter this year.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
NFC South road underdogs are 7-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Saints are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS in outdoor games this year.
Packers (10-4)
Packers won eight of last ten games (4-0 ATS last four).
Green Bay has four wins by 16+ points.
Last four weeks, Green Bay scored 32.3 points/game.
This is Packers’ third night game in four weeks.
Team total: over 9-5
Opponents’ team total: under 10-3 last 13
GB is 5-4-1 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite (3-3 TY).
Packers are 10-7 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Green Bay is 9-0 when they allow less than 24 points.
Under is 5-2 in their home games.
Last four games, Green Bay is +5 in turnovers.
NFC North home favorites are 12-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split their last ten meetings.
Saints are 1-3 SU/2-1-1 ATS last four visits to Lambeau
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Top NFL Things To Know
Close as Ever
Lamar Going for HistoryAs an underdog of 4 pts or more vs. Ravens, the Steelers are 8-0 ATS in franchise history. Lamar Jackson is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS vs. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers in his career. Against all other teams, Lamar is 52-39-1 ATS.
In the regular season, when the line is three or more points, the underdog is 23-4-3 ATS in this series last 20 years. The underdog is 16-2-1 ATS since 2015, covering the spread by 5.6 points per game.
Final margin between the Steelers and Ravens since 2020: 2, 7, 7, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 4
A New World
Falcons Big FavoritesThe Falcons made their move to start Michael Penix Jr. this week and bench Kirk Cousins. The line got up to -10 and directly moved to -8.5 with the news for Atlanta.
In the last 40 years, no rookie QB in Week 10 or later has made his first career start as a favorite of 7 pts or higher. The closest were Lamar Jackson in 2018 and Jim Everett in 1986 as 6.5-pt favorites.
The New Black and Blue
DominationThe NFC North is now 30-10 SU and 26-14 ATS (65%) vs. other divisions this year — the 30-10 mark is the 2nd-best for a full season by any division since 1990 (2002 NFC East), and the ATS mark is the best for any division since the 2019 NFC West.
Need More Than Two
The Worst Betting HistoryThe Titans are 2-12 against the spread this season, the worst mark for any team through 14 games since the 2016 Browns.
2-12 ATS or Worse Thru 14 Games in the Super Bowl Era:
2024 Titans, 2-12 ATS
2016 Browns, 2-12 ATS
2007 Ravens, 2-12 ATS
1987 Benals, 2-12 ATS
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Overall, the worst ATS mark for any team since 1990 is the Ravens, who went 3-13 ATS back in 2007. That 2007 Ravens team is also the only squad to start 2-13 ATS for a season, which Tennessee could join Sunday.
Road Advantage
Changing of the GuardThis season, home underdogs are 35-48-3 ATS (42%). Over a full season, that would be the 2nd-least profitable mark for any season since 1990, behind just 2005.
On the other side, road favorites went 7-0 SU last week. They are now 14-1 SU over the last three weeks and 34-8 SU since Week 9.
More Oranges
Can't Hold OnTeams to lead at half are 87-124-3 against the second half spread (41%) this year, the worst season over the last 20 years.
In an over 700-game sample size in the last 3 years, they are just 44% against the second half spread. Only 7 of 32 teams are above .500 2H ATS when having the lead over this sample size. Holding a lead has been hard.
Four for Fighting
NFC BeastIn 2024, the Eagles are 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the NFC East, beating the Cowboys, Giants and Commanders all once.
Eagles haven’t won four consecutive games ATS vs. NFC East since 2011-12 behind Michael Vick.
An Unlikely Streak
Rodgers Goes for No. 9No QB has had a bigger advantage in the betting world against another opponent than Aaron Rodgers against the Rams.
In his career, Rodgers is 8-0 ATS against the Rams, the most wins without a loss for any QB in the Bet Labs database. The next closest is Tua Tagovailoa being 7-0 ATS vs. Patriots
Best NFL Week 16 betting trends
The trend: The Texans are an NFL-best 12-2 ATS in the first half this season
The trend: These teams have gone Under in eight straight games against each other, Bal vs. Pit
The trend: The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games
The trend: Over their last nine games, these teams are a combined 14-4 to the Over, NE vs. BUF
The trend: The Lions are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after a loss
The trend: Cincinnati’s last five home games have had an average combined score of 70.2 points.
The trend: The Titans are 2-12 ATS this season
The trend: The Rams are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games played in December
The trend: The Eagles are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five road games
The trend: The Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite
The trend: The first-half total in Seahawks’ home games is 7-1 to the Under
The trend: The Jaguars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog
The trend: The Dolphins have gone Over in five straight home games
The trend: The Bucs average the most points per game on the road, while the Cowboys allow the most points per game on the road
The trend: The Packers have covered in four straight games as a double-digit favorite
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 32-118 SU and 55-92 ATS (37.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY GIANTS (+8.5 at ATL), CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CIN), TENNESSEE (+3.5 at IND), JACKSONVILLE (+1 at LVR)
Cincinnati: 11-0 ATS rematch streak vs. Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs. CLE)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 59-14 SU and 48-23-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3 vs. HOU)
New Orleans Under in 18 of the last 23 on the road primetime games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NO-GB (o/u at 42.5)
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 16-15 SU but 8-22-1 ATS (26.7%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5 vs. TEN)
PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 30-20 SU and 35-13 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-6 at BAL)
DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 9-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-6.5 at CHI)
Retread coaches aren’t as proficient at covering spreads when at home in the last decade – 87–120-1 ATS (42%)
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA, WASHINGTON
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: MIAMI -1 vs. SF (+4.3 difference)
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 32-118 SU and 55-92 ATS (37.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY GIANTS (+8.5 at ATL), CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CIN), TENNESSEE (+3.5 at IND), JACKSONVILLE (+1 at LVR)
Cincinnati: 11-0 ATS rematch streak vs. Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs. CLE)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 59-14 SU and 48-23-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3 vs. HOU)
New Orleans Under in 18 of the last 23 on the road primetime games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NO-GB (o/u at 42.5)
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 16-15 SU but 8-22-1 ATS (26.7%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5 vs. TEN)
PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 30-20 SU and 35-13 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-6 at BAL)
DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 9-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-6.5 at CHI)
Retread coaches aren’t as proficient at covering spreads when at home in the last decade – 87–120-1 ATS (42%)
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): LA CHARGERS, ATLANTA, WASHINGTON
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: MIAMI -1 vs. SF (+4.3 difference)
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Denver @ LA Chargers -3, Total 42
UNDER is 10-1 LA Chargers’ last 11 games at home against Denver.Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games, 6-1 ATS past 7 on road
Chargers are just 3-10 SU past 13 divisional games
UNDER is 12-4 past 16 Chargers divisional games
Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 16.
Broncos are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games as the underdog
OVER is 5-1 LA Chargers’ last 6 games played on a Thursday.
Chargers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as faves
· Road teams have been solid, 36-42 SU and 43-32-3 ATS (57.3%) in the last 78.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+3 at LAC)
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 and later are 43-26 SU and 40-26-3 ATS (60.6%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-3 vs. DEN)
· A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 21-18 SU but 16-23 ATS (41%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-3 vs. DEN)
· Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 26-32 SU and 21-36-1 ATS (36.8%).
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-3 vs. DEN)
Under the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of DEN-LAC series at Chargers
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in DEN-LAC (o/u at 41.5)
(123) DENVER at (124) LA CHARGERS
* DENVER is 17-5 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
* DENVER is 96-65 Under the total (59.6%) since 2015
Trends Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42)
* LA CHARGERS are 12-1 Under the total as a divisional home favorite since 2018
* LA CHARGERS’s Jim Harbaugh is on 10-1 Under the total surge vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG
* LA CHARGERS are 35-50-1 ATS (41.2%) at home since 2014
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021
* LA CHARGERS’s Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 28-8 SU and 25-9 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011 (*if they fall into this line range)
Trends Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42), also consider LA CHARGERS (-2.5 vs. LAC)
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team NFL Betting Trends
Denver 9-20 SU and 10-17-2 ATS in the last 29
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+3 at LAC)
UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 17-5 Under since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-LAC (o/u at 42)
The trend: The Chargers have gone Under in 15 of their last 19 divisional home games, and the Broncos have gone Under in 16 of their last 21 divisional road games
Thursday Night Struggles for Home Teams
➤Thursday home teams are just 46-57-1 ATS since 2019, including 41-50-1 ATS in night Thursday games.Rookie Bo Nix Faces Tough Road Challenge
➤Rookie Bo Nix is getting the start for the Broncos on the road on TNF. Since 2006, rookie QBs are 15-25 SU on Thursday Night Football. Over the last two seasons they are 4-3 SU, with Nix beating the Saints on the road earlier this season. When those QBs are on the road, that record falls to 8-20 SU since 2006.Sean Payton’s Bounce-Back Opportunities
➤Don’t count out Sean Payton. After his teams throw an interception in consecutive games, he is 34-32-2 ATS as a head coach but 12-6-1 ATS when he’s listed as an underdog, including 17-2 in a 6-pt teaser.Bo Nix Shines on the Road
➤In Nix’s early career as a starter, he is 6-1 ATS on the road, covering the spread by 6.1 PPG.Best QBs ATS on the Road This Season
Joe Burrow 7-1 ATS
Bo Nix 6-1 ATS
Jalen Hurts 6-1 ATS
Jared Goff 6-1 ATS
Broncos head coach Sean Payton has also been great ATS on the road, he is 79-59-3 ATS (57%), including 32-15-1 ATS since 2018, best mark for any head coach in the NFL.
Sean Payton’s Night Game Record
➤This will be Sean Payton’s 8th night game with the Denver Broncos. He is 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS this season.Payton has had success on short rest as well. He is 1-0 SU/ATS with Bo Nix and 24-18-1 ATS overall in his career, including 9-6-1 ATS as an underdog.
Chargers’ Interception Woes
➤Justin Herbert threw just his 2nd interception of the season last week in the home loss vs. the Buccaneers, breaking a streak of 357 pass attempts.Even though interceptions have been hard to come by for L.A. recently with Herbert, they are now 1-7 SU/ATS in their last 8 games when the Chargers have thrown an INT at any point in the game.
Chargers’ Defensive Struggles Continue
➤The full season numbers may not do it justice, but the Chargers defense has struggled the last few weeks, facing a few good offenses. Since Week 11, the Chargers have been 2-3 SU; they are 21st in EPA/play, 23rd in success rate and 20th or worse in dropback and rush EPA. The over is now 4-2 in their last six games. They were 19-4 to the under in the 23 games before that.Herbert’s Second Half Spread Struggles
➤Herbert has struggled against the second half spread in his career. Herbert is 24-48-5 (33%) against the second half spread in his career. He’s 12-32-2 against the second half spread when leading at halftime as well.Herbert Excels on Short Rest at Home
➤So far, during the 2024 season, Herbert has started two games on short rest against the Saints and Falcons, and he is 2-0 SU/ATS in those games.In his career, Herbert hasn’t had an issue putting up points on short rest at home, averaging 32.2 PPG.
NFL BEST BETS FOR DECEMBER !
12/19/2024.................0 - 2 - 0.....................00.00%.......................- 11.00
12/16/2024................. 3 - 1 - 0....................75.00%.......................+ 9.50
12/15/2024.................5 - 12 - 0...................29.41%.......................- 36.00
12/12/2024...................1 - 1 - 0...................50.00%........................- 0.50
12/09/2024...................0 - 2 - 0...................00.00%........................- 11.00
12/08/2024...................9 - 8 - 0....................52.94%.........................+ 1.00
12/05/2024....................0 - 2 - 0....................00.00%....................- 11.00
12/02/2024....................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%....................+ 10.00
12/01/2024.....................3 - 7- 0.....................30.00%.....................- 23.50
TOTALS........................23 - 35 - 0.....................39.65%.................... - 72.50
12/19/2024.................0 - 2 - 0.....................00.00%.......................- 11.00
12/16/2024................. 3 - 1 - 0....................75.00%.......................+ 9.50
12/15/2024.................5 - 12 - 0...................29.41%.......................- 36.00
12/12/2024...................1 - 1 - 0...................50.00%........................- 0.50
12/09/2024...................0 - 2 - 0...................00.00%........................- 11.00
12/08/2024...................9 - 8 - 0....................52.94%.........................+ 1.00
12/05/2024....................0 - 2 - 0....................00.00%....................- 11.00
12/02/2024....................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%....................+ 10.00
12/01/2024.....................3 - 7- 0.....................30.00%.....................- 23.50
TOTALS........................23 - 35 - 0.....................39.65%.................... - 72.50
Friday’s 6-pack:
College basketball teams with the best eFG% defense in country:
40.0%— Tennessee
41.0%— Houston
41.2%— Duke
41.4%— Illinois
42.2%— George Mason
42.2%— Cincinnati
Quote of the Day
“Great football game. Let’s talk about Cam Dicker and the free kick. It’s my favorite rule in football. I have been trying to get one in every game. When Cameron Dicker made it, it got the momentum back. This was our chance. This was our moment [to try it].”
Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh, talking about the 57-yard FG on a free kick
Friday’s quiz
What city is the Liberty Bowl football game played in every year?
Thursday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff are the two starting QB’s in the NFL who have fathers that played major league baseball.
Wednesday’s quiz
Washington Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft.
*******************************************************
Broncos’ first three drives: 28 plays, 212 yards, 21 points.
Denver led 21-13 at halftime.
Broncos last seven drives: 37 plays, 124 yards, 3 points.
Broncos are 1-5 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Denver’s team total: over 10-4-1
QB Herbert threw for 284 yards and two TD’s.
Chargers are 6-0 scoring 24+ points, 3-6 scoring 23 or fewer points.
Over is 5-0 in their last five home games.
Chargers are 5-1 ATS this season as home favorites.
Bolts are 8-4 ATS in last 12 AFC West home games.
Chargers got a 57-yard field goal at the end of the first half on a free kick after a fair catch by the punt returner; the last time that happened in the NFL was 1976.
— Sam Houston 31, Georgia Southern 26
Sam Houston scored on a pick-6 2:58 into the game.
Georgia Southern ran for 181 yards, outgained Bearkats 393-267.
Problem is, Sam Houston was +4 in turnovers (5-1)
Bearkats win their first-ever I-A bowl game.
Sam Houston still has 10 guys who were on 2021 team that won the 2021 national title at the I-AA level.
— When the Detroit Lions play in Chicago Sunday, it’ll be their second outdoor game this year, on freakin’ December 22. Very unusual.
Lions won their first outdoor game 24-14 at Green Bay in Week 9, but they were outgained 411-261. Detroit scored 34-42 points in their last two games, but those were both at home.
— Cardinals’ 3B Nolan Arenado vetoed a trade to Houston; at this point, the best St Louis can probably get for Arenado is most likely a mid-level prospect and for the other team to take on some of his salary (he will make $59M the next two years).
Does this mean Alex Bregman is leaving the Astros? Boston is rumored to be interested in him, as well as the Tigers.
— Sacramento A’s signed 33-year old IF Gio Urshela Thursday; he hit .250 last year, with nine homers, 52 RBI in a season split between Detroit/Atlanta.
— 31-year old Max Kepler signed a one-year, $10M deal with the Phillies; he’s played for the Twins the last 10 years, and was hampered by injuries LY, playing in only 105 games. Kepler is expected to play left field for Philadelphia.
— Washington Nationals signed P Mike Soroka for one year, $9M; Soroka was 17-8, 3.32 in 43 starts for Atlanta from 2018-23, but was 0-10, 4.74 in 25 games (nine starts) for a dreadful White Sox team last year. He is expected to be a starter again for Washington.
— Famous birthdays, December 20th:
Dick Wolf, 78 (executive producer, Law and Order)
Cecil Cooper, 75
Jenny Agutter, 72
Trent Tucker, 65
Tom Newberry, 62
Rich Gannon, 59
David DeJesus, 45
James Shields, 43
Jonah Hill, 41
Calvin Ridley, 30
Bryce Perkins, 28
De’Aaron Fox, 27
Friday would’ve been John Hillerman’s 92nd birthday.
— Cal-Irvine 92, Belmont 84
Anteaters were down 13 with 12:20 left to play.
Irvine scored 40 points in the last 10:00 of the game.
Anteaters were 24-26 on foul line, Belmont 5-8; game was at Belmont.
It is December 20; Irvine already has four true road wins. Impressive.
— How much does Patrick Mahomes’ status effect the pointspread?
When it was thought he was sitting Saturday’s game out, Houston was favored by 2.5 points.
Now that Mahomes is going to play, Kansas City is favored by 3.5 points.
— Duke QB Maalik Murphy bolted to Oregon State, which probably means the Beavers gave him a lot more $$$$ than Duke was. On the surface, bolting from the ACC to the Mountain West isn’t a brilliant move. Duke is 9-3 this year; Murphy threw 26 TD’s, 12 INTs before he bolted.
Washington State QB John Mateer is bolting to Oklahoma, where he will reunite with his old offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, and quarterbacks coach John Kuceyesk from Wazzu.
Coogs are 8-4 this year, losing their last three games; Mateer threw 29 TD’s, 7 INT’s. It is safe to assume that Oklahoma gave him a boatload of $$$, too.
— NBA franchises that are worth the most $$$$:
Golden State $9.14B
NY Knicks $8.3B
LA Lakers $8.07B
Brooklyn $5.7B
LA Clippers $5.68B
— Steph Curry is getting paid $55,761,216 this season: he is expected to make another $90M or so off the floor, in endorsements. Same thing for Lebron James, who the Lakers are paying $48,728,845 this year (plus another $2M or so to his son).
Basketball is big business, but if the TV ratings keep tanking, will be interesting to see where the salary cap winds up the next few years.
— JJ Redick gave up the TV booth this year to coach Lebron and the Lakers, who are 15-12 as we speak, the #7-seed in the West. Redick had never coached before; they fired last year’s coach Darvin Ham even after the Lakers won the in-season tournament, which is probably an indictment of that event.
Would seem that coaching a big-market team with two big stars wouldn’t be an entry-level position, but this year, it is.
— Random stat: Los Angeles Chargers have lost their last 11 games that were decided by 3 or fewer points; the longest losing streak ever in that category is 13 (Buffalo, from 2001-06).
— Looks like Georgia Bulldogs QB Carson Beck is exploring surgery options on his injured throwing elbow; he isn’t expected to play in Georgia’s playoff games. Sophomore Gunner Stockton is expected to take his place- he was 12-16 for 71 yards in the SEC title game against Texas, which the Dawgs won 22-19 in overtime.
College basketball teams with the best eFG% defense in country:
40.0%— Tennessee
41.0%— Houston
41.2%— Duke
41.4%— Illinois
42.2%— George Mason
42.2%— Cincinnati
Quote of the Day
“Great football game. Let’s talk about Cam Dicker and the free kick. It’s my favorite rule in football. I have been trying to get one in every game. When Cameron Dicker made it, it got the momentum back. This was our chance. This was our moment [to try it].”
Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh, talking about the 57-yard FG on a free kick
Friday’s quiz
What city is the Liberty Bowl football game played in every year?
Thursday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff are the two starting QB’s in the NFL who have fathers that played major league baseball.
Wednesday’s quiz
Washington Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft.
*******************************************************
Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….
— Chargers 34, Broncos 27Broncos’ first three drives: 28 plays, 212 yards, 21 points.
Denver led 21-13 at halftime.
Broncos last seven drives: 37 plays, 124 yards, 3 points.
Broncos are 1-5 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Denver’s team total: over 10-4-1
QB Herbert threw for 284 yards and two TD’s.
Chargers are 6-0 scoring 24+ points, 3-6 scoring 23 or fewer points.
Over is 5-0 in their last five home games.
Chargers are 5-1 ATS this season as home favorites.
Bolts are 8-4 ATS in last 12 AFC West home games.
Chargers got a 57-yard field goal at the end of the first half on a free kick after a fair catch by the punt returner; the last time that happened in the NFL was 1976.
— Sam Houston 31, Georgia Southern 26
Sam Houston scored on a pick-6 2:58 into the game.
Georgia Southern ran for 181 yards, outgained Bearkats 393-267.
Problem is, Sam Houston was +4 in turnovers (5-1)
Bearkats win their first-ever I-A bowl game.
Sam Houston still has 10 guys who were on 2021 team that won the 2021 national title at the I-AA level.
— When the Detroit Lions play in Chicago Sunday, it’ll be their second outdoor game this year, on freakin’ December 22. Very unusual.
Lions won their first outdoor game 24-14 at Green Bay in Week 9, but they were outgained 411-261. Detroit scored 34-42 points in their last two games, but those were both at home.
— Cardinals’ 3B Nolan Arenado vetoed a trade to Houston; at this point, the best St Louis can probably get for Arenado is most likely a mid-level prospect and for the other team to take on some of his salary (he will make $59M the next two years).
Does this mean Alex Bregman is leaving the Astros? Boston is rumored to be interested in him, as well as the Tigers.
— Sacramento A’s signed 33-year old IF Gio Urshela Thursday; he hit .250 last year, with nine homers, 52 RBI in a season split between Detroit/Atlanta.
— 31-year old Max Kepler signed a one-year, $10M deal with the Phillies; he’s played for the Twins the last 10 years, and was hampered by injuries LY, playing in only 105 games. Kepler is expected to play left field for Philadelphia.
— Washington Nationals signed P Mike Soroka for one year, $9M; Soroka was 17-8, 3.32 in 43 starts for Atlanta from 2018-23, but was 0-10, 4.74 in 25 games (nine starts) for a dreadful White Sox team last year. He is expected to be a starter again for Washington.
— Famous birthdays, December 20th:
Dick Wolf, 78 (executive producer, Law and Order)
Cecil Cooper, 75
Jenny Agutter, 72
Trent Tucker, 65
Tom Newberry, 62
Rich Gannon, 59
David DeJesus, 45
James Shields, 43
Jonah Hill, 41
Calvin Ridley, 30
Bryce Perkins, 28
De’Aaron Fox, 27
Friday would’ve been John Hillerman’s 92nd birthday.
— Cal-Irvine 92, Belmont 84
Anteaters were down 13 with 12:20 left to play.
Irvine scored 40 points in the last 10:00 of the game.
Anteaters were 24-26 on foul line, Belmont 5-8; game was at Belmont.
It is December 20; Irvine already has four true road wins. Impressive.
— How much does Patrick Mahomes’ status effect the pointspread?
When it was thought he was sitting Saturday’s game out, Houston was favored by 2.5 points.
Now that Mahomes is going to play, Kansas City is favored by 3.5 points.
— Duke QB Maalik Murphy bolted to Oregon State, which probably means the Beavers gave him a lot more $$$$ than Duke was. On the surface, bolting from the ACC to the Mountain West isn’t a brilliant move. Duke is 9-3 this year; Murphy threw 26 TD’s, 12 INTs before he bolted.
Washington State QB John Mateer is bolting to Oklahoma, where he will reunite with his old offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, and quarterbacks coach John Kuceyesk from Wazzu.
Coogs are 8-4 this year, losing their last three games; Mateer threw 29 TD’s, 7 INT’s. It is safe to assume that Oklahoma gave him a boatload of $$$, too.
— NBA franchises that are worth the most $$$$:
Golden State $9.14B
NY Knicks $8.3B
LA Lakers $8.07B
Brooklyn $5.7B
LA Clippers $5.68B
— Steph Curry is getting paid $55,761,216 this season: he is expected to make another $90M or so off the floor, in endorsements. Same thing for Lebron James, who the Lakers are paying $48,728,845 this year (plus another $2M or so to his son).
Basketball is big business, but if the TV ratings keep tanking, will be interesting to see where the salary cap winds up the next few years.
— JJ Redick gave up the TV booth this year to coach Lebron and the Lakers, who are 15-12 as we speak, the #7-seed in the West. Redick had never coached before; they fired last year’s coach Darvin Ham even after the Lakers won the in-season tournament, which is probably an indictment of that event.
Would seem that coaching a big-market team with two big stars wouldn’t be an entry-level position, but this year, it is.
— Random stat: Los Angeles Chargers have lost their last 11 games that were decided by 3 or fewer points; the longest losing streak ever in that category is 13 (Buffalo, from 2001-06).
— Looks like Georgia Bulldogs QB Carson Beck is exploring surgery options on his injured throwing elbow; he isn’t expected to play in Georgia’s playoff games. Sophomore Gunner Stockton is expected to take his place- he was 12-16 for 71 yards in the SEC title game against Texas, which the Dawgs won 22-19 in overtime.
Saturday’s 6-pack:
Some college basketball teams with a bad eFG% defense:
#361- VMI
#359- Stony Brook
#355- Seattle
#352- Oral Roberts
#350- Canisius
#348- Kansas City
Quote of the Day
“Joe does a great job at buying gifts that are extremely meaningful. The fact that he bought me a sword, it’s the most ancient form of respect.”
Bengals left tackle Orlando Brown, talking about the Christmas gifts QB Joe Burrow gave to his offensive linemen this week
Saturday’s quiz
Where did Patrick Mahomes play his college football?
Friday’s quiz
The Liberty Bowl football game played in Memphis.
Thursday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff are the two starting QB’s in the NFL who have fathers that played major league baseball.
************************************
Indiana scored two TD’s in last 2:00; final score is misleading.
Notre Dame scored on a 98-yard TD run on their second series.
Notre Dame was 7-13 on third down, Indiana 4-12
Notre Dame plays Georgia in the Elite 8 next week.
— Florida 33, Tulane 8
Tulane’s QB bolted to Duke; his backup didn’t play well.
Florida’s lead was only 6-0 at halftime.
Gators ran for 224 yards; they outgained Tulane, 529-194
— Ohio 30, Jacksonville State 27
Ohio U led this game 27-7 at halftime.
Ohio QB Navarro ran for 3 TDs, threw a 4th TD, all in first half.
Both head coaches in this game have bolted to bigger $$$ jobs.
— Indiana had 13 players who played for James Madison last year; despite that, JMU went 9-4 this year and won their bowl game. Lot of talent out there.
— Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)
AAC 1-1 SU/1-1 ATS
ACC 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
Big 18 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
Big X 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
C-USA 1-2 SU/1-2 ATS
MAC 1-1 SU/1-0-1 ATS
M West 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
SEC 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
Sun Belt 2-1 SU/1-1-1 ATS
Favorites: 4-3-1 ATS
Totals: under 5-3
— St John’s 72, Providence 70
Friars led 42-29 at halftime.
Red Storm survived going 11-26 on the foul line.
Providence lost six of its last eight games.
— Cincinnati 66, Dayton 59
Bearcats never trailed, led 16-4 midway thru first half.
Dayton shot 39.2% from floor.
9-1 Cincinnati has #6 eFG% defense in country.
— Famous birthdays, December 21st:
Dave Kingman, 76
Samuel L Jackson, 76
Ray Romano, 67
Andy Van Slyke, 64
Kiefer Sutherland, 58
LaTroy Hawkins, 52
Mike Alstott, 51
Chris Davis, 37
Kendall Graveman, 34
Mike Clevinger, 34
— Houston Astros signed 1B Christian Walker to a 3-year, $60M contract; 33-year old Walker hit 26 homers for Arizona last year, with an .803 OPS.
— A record nine MLB teams were over the luxury tax threshold for 2024, which resulted in $311M in penalties, with the Dodgers ($103,016,896), Mets ($97,115,609) and Bronx ($62,512,111) paying the biggest penalties.
Some questions for this week’s NFL games:
— Steelers lead the Ravens by a game in AFC North; they visit Baltimore Sunday. Pittsburgh has won eight of its last nine games against the Ravens, including an 18-16 win in Week 11..
— Lions @ Bears- December 22 and this is Detroit’s 2nd game outdoors all season; should be a bit nippy in Chicago for this one. Lions won their first outdoor game 24-14 in Green Bay.
— Giants @ Atlanta- Falcons are favored by 8.5 points; they’re playing a QB making his first-ever NFL start. Atlanta lost four of its last five games; Giants have lost nine in a row.
— Jaguars @ Raiders
Jacksonville lost six of its last seven games.
Las Vegas lost its last 10 games; their last win was September 29.
Please don’t bet on this game, but if you do, play the total.
— Patriots @ Bills- Weird scheduling— it is Week 16 and these division rivals haven’t met yet this season- they play again in two weeks.
— Vikings @ Seahawks- Both teams are scrambling for playoff position; Vikings have a short week after their win against the Bears Monday night. Minnesota is 7-1 this year in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Some college basketball teams with a bad eFG% defense:
#361- VMI
#359- Stony Brook
#355- Seattle
#352- Oral Roberts
#350- Canisius
#348- Kansas City
Quote of the Day
“Joe does a great job at buying gifts that are extremely meaningful. The fact that he bought me a sword, it’s the most ancient form of respect.”
Bengals left tackle Orlando Brown, talking about the Christmas gifts QB Joe Burrow gave to his offensive linemen this week
Saturday’s quiz
Where did Patrick Mahomes play his college football?
Friday’s quiz
The Liberty Bowl football game played in Memphis.
Thursday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff are the two starting QB’s in the NFL who have fathers that played major league baseball.
************************************
Saturday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….
— Notre Dame 27, Indiana 17Indiana scored two TD’s in last 2:00; final score is misleading.
Notre Dame scored on a 98-yard TD run on their second series.
Notre Dame was 7-13 on third down, Indiana 4-12
Notre Dame plays Georgia in the Elite 8 next week.
— Florida 33, Tulane 8
Tulane’s QB bolted to Duke; his backup didn’t play well.
Florida’s lead was only 6-0 at halftime.
Gators ran for 224 yards; they outgained Tulane, 529-194
— Ohio 30, Jacksonville State 27
Ohio U led this game 27-7 at halftime.
Ohio QB Navarro ran for 3 TDs, threw a 4th TD, all in first half.
Both head coaches in this game have bolted to bigger $$$ jobs.
— Indiana had 13 players who played for James Madison last year; despite that, JMU went 9-4 this year and won their bowl game. Lot of talent out there.
— Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)
AAC 1-1 SU/1-1 ATS
ACC 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
Big 18 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
Big X 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
C-USA 1-2 SU/1-2 ATS
MAC 1-1 SU/1-0-1 ATS
M West 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
SEC 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
Sun Belt 2-1 SU/1-1-1 ATS
Favorites: 4-3-1 ATS
Totals: under 5-3
— St John’s 72, Providence 70
Friars led 42-29 at halftime.
Red Storm survived going 11-26 on the foul line.
Providence lost six of its last eight games.
— Cincinnati 66, Dayton 59
Bearcats never trailed, led 16-4 midway thru first half.
Dayton shot 39.2% from floor.
9-1 Cincinnati has #6 eFG% defense in country.
— Famous birthdays, December 21st:
Dave Kingman, 76
Samuel L Jackson, 76
Ray Romano, 67
Andy Van Slyke, 64
Kiefer Sutherland, 58
LaTroy Hawkins, 52
Mike Alstott, 51
Chris Davis, 37
Kendall Graveman, 34
Mike Clevinger, 34
— Houston Astros signed 1B Christian Walker to a 3-year, $60M contract; 33-year old Walker hit 26 homers for Arizona last year, with an .803 OPS.
— A record nine MLB teams were over the luxury tax threshold for 2024, which resulted in $311M in penalties, with the Dodgers ($103,016,896), Mets ($97,115,609) and Bronx ($62,512,111) paying the biggest penalties.
Some questions for this week’s NFL games:
— Steelers lead the Ravens by a game in AFC North; they visit Baltimore Sunday. Pittsburgh has won eight of its last nine games against the Ravens, including an 18-16 win in Week 11..
— Lions @ Bears- December 22 and this is Detroit’s 2nd game outdoors all season; should be a bit nippy in Chicago for this one. Lions won their first outdoor game 24-14 in Green Bay.
— Giants @ Atlanta- Falcons are favored by 8.5 points; they’re playing a QB making his first-ever NFL start. Atlanta lost four of its last five games; Giants have lost nine in a row.
— Jaguars @ Raiders
Jacksonville lost six of its last seven games.
Las Vegas lost its last 10 games; their last win was September 29.
Please don’t bet on this game, but if you do, play the total.
— Patriots @ Bills- Weird scheduling— it is Week 16 and these division rivals haven’t met yet this season- they play again in two weeks.
— Vikings @ Seahawks- Both teams are scrambling for playoff position; Vikings have a short week after their win against the Bears Monday night. Minnesota is 7-1 this year in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
