Sunday's Rated Games:
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................3 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/07/14 16-*10-*0 6153% +*2500 Detail
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 17-*11-*0 60.71% +2450
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................3 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/07/14 16-*10-*0 6153% +*2500 Detail
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 17-*11-*0 60.71% +2450
Sunday's Rated Games:
*****........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................3 - 2
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/07/14 16-*10-*0 6153% +*2500 Detail
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 17-*11-*0 60.71% +2450
*****........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................3 - 2
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/07/14 16-*10-*0 6153% +*2500 Detail
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 17-*11-*0 60.71% +2450
Armadillo: Monday's six-pack
-- Oklahoma State QB JW Walsh broke his foot Saturday, is out 6-8 weeks.
-- Baltimore has a 9.5-game lead in AL East; their magic number to clinch is 10.
-- Yasiel Puig batted 7th for the Dodgers Sunday, after going 8 for his last 65. Will be very interested to see what the Dodgers do with their playoff roster.
-- In his last 36 holes of the BMW tourney, Morgan Hofmann had 17 birdies and an eagle. Thats pretty good at pitch 'n putt.
-- Big night in Detroit Monday; Royals-Tigers and Giants-Lions in Motown.
-- At what point does Peyton Manning become known as Mr September?
**********
Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday......
13) Falcons 37, Saints 34 OT-- Best game of day, but not lot of defense; only one of nine TD drives was less than 80 yards and that was 71. Teams combined to go 14 of 24 on third down. Falcons averaged 10.1 yards per pass attempt.
12) Vikings 34, Rams 6-- Worst game of day, good start for Mike Zimmer, who had to wait until age 58 to get his first head coaching job. Norv Turner made good use of speedy WR Patterson in this game-- he's a weapon.
11) Steelers 30, Browns 27-- Pittsburgh blew 27-3 halftime lead, then won at gun on a 41-yard FG. Hoyer played whole game for Browns, who gained 389 yards and didn't turn ball over. Only one TD in three red zone trip for Steelers.
10) Eagles 34, Jaguars 17-- Jax scored early, with turnover-aided drives of 44-21 yards, and led 17-0 at halftime,but was outscored 34-0 in second half, with bad beat of day when Iggles scored defensive TD with 1:23 left for the cover.
9) Jets 19, Raiders 14-- Eight teams were +2 or better in turnovers this week; only the Raiders/Jaguars lost, maybe two worst teams in NFL. Jets outrushed Oakland 212-25, but had only one TD, two FGs on four red zone drives.
8) Bengals 23, Ravens 16-- Cincy tried FGs on six of first seven drives, making first five. Flacco blew easy FG just before half with pathetic clock management and it cost them late. Bengals hit AJ Green for game-winning bomb with 4:58 left.
7) Bills 23, Bears 20 OT-- Buffalo ran ball for 193 yards, had 14-yard advantage in field position- they averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt, were +2 in turnovers. Jay Cutler passed for 341 yards, but also threw two interceptions.
6) Texans 17, Redskins 6-- Washington scored first, then had PAT blocked and never scored again. Houston blocked punt for TD, so rough day for Redskins' special teams. Teams combined for one TD, two empty trips on four red zone drives.
5) Titans 26, Chiefs 10-- KC was -24 in turnovers in 2012, +18 LY, now they're -3 this year. Titans had 162 rushing yards, 243 passing, as they outgained Chiefs by 160 yards and had 10-yard edge in field position.
4) Dolphins 33, Patriots 20-- Only thing more depressing than the Ram game was drafting Tom Brady in my fantasy league, then watching him get outscored by Ryan Tannehill, who doesn't even know which teams are in the AFC East. Dolphins had TD drives of 15 and 34 yards- they shut Patriots out in second half.
3) Panthers 20, Buccaneers 14-- Carolina gets a divisional road win with Newton in street clothes; rookie WR Benjamin looks like a keeper for Panthers. Tampa Bay DB dropped an INT in last 2:00 that would've set up at least a trying FG, then they fumbled on first play after the Carolina punt.
2) 49ers 28, Cowboys 17-- FOX had two 4:25 games; they insist on pretending the Cowboys are good, so they get marquee games. Since 1997, Dallas is 137-138 in the regular season, with one playoff win. Their last winning season was in 2009.
1) Broncos 31, Colts 24-- Week 1 so far: favorites are 4-9-1 vs spread, home dogs are 2-1. Under is 9-5 with two games left. Denver had a 24-7 lead at the half, then hung on for dear life for the win. Luck was impressive in the second half.
-- Oklahoma State QB JW Walsh broke his foot Saturday, is out 6-8 weeks.
-- Baltimore has a 9.5-game lead in AL East; their magic number to clinch is 10.
-- Yasiel Puig batted 7th for the Dodgers Sunday, after going 8 for his last 65. Will be very interested to see what the Dodgers do with their playoff roster.
-- In his last 36 holes of the BMW tourney, Morgan Hofmann had 17 birdies and an eagle. Thats pretty good at pitch 'n putt.
-- Big night in Detroit Monday; Royals-Tigers and Giants-Lions in Motown.
-- At what point does Peyton Manning become known as Mr September?
**********
Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday......
13) Falcons 37, Saints 34 OT-- Best game of day, but not lot of defense; only one of nine TD drives was less than 80 yards and that was 71. Teams combined to go 14 of 24 on third down. Falcons averaged 10.1 yards per pass attempt.
12) Vikings 34, Rams 6-- Worst game of day, good start for Mike Zimmer, who had to wait until age 58 to get his first head coaching job. Norv Turner made good use of speedy WR Patterson in this game-- he's a weapon.
11) Steelers 30, Browns 27-- Pittsburgh blew 27-3 halftime lead, then won at gun on a 41-yard FG. Hoyer played whole game for Browns, who gained 389 yards and didn't turn ball over. Only one TD in three red zone trip for Steelers.
10) Eagles 34, Jaguars 17-- Jax scored early, with turnover-aided drives of 44-21 yards, and led 17-0 at halftime,but was outscored 34-0 in second half, with bad beat of day when Iggles scored defensive TD with 1:23 left for the cover.
9) Jets 19, Raiders 14-- Eight teams were +2 or better in turnovers this week; only the Raiders/Jaguars lost, maybe two worst teams in NFL. Jets outrushed Oakland 212-25, but had only one TD, two FGs on four red zone drives.
8) Bengals 23, Ravens 16-- Cincy tried FGs on six of first seven drives, making first five. Flacco blew easy FG just before half with pathetic clock management and it cost them late. Bengals hit AJ Green for game-winning bomb with 4:58 left.
7) Bills 23, Bears 20 OT-- Buffalo ran ball for 193 yards, had 14-yard advantage in field position- they averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt, were +2 in turnovers. Jay Cutler passed for 341 yards, but also threw two interceptions.
6) Texans 17, Redskins 6-- Washington scored first, then had PAT blocked and never scored again. Houston blocked punt for TD, so rough day for Redskins' special teams. Teams combined for one TD, two empty trips on four red zone drives.
5) Titans 26, Chiefs 10-- KC was -24 in turnovers in 2012, +18 LY, now they're -3 this year. Titans had 162 rushing yards, 243 passing, as they outgained Chiefs by 160 yards and had 10-yard edge in field position.
4) Dolphins 33, Patriots 20-- Only thing more depressing than the Ram game was drafting Tom Brady in my fantasy league, then watching him get outscored by Ryan Tannehill, who doesn't even know which teams are in the AFC East. Dolphins had TD drives of 15 and 34 yards- they shut Patriots out in second half.
3) Panthers 20, Buccaneers 14-- Carolina gets a divisional road win with Newton in street clothes; rookie WR Benjamin looks like a keeper for Panthers. Tampa Bay DB dropped an INT in last 2:00 that would've set up at least a trying FG, then they fumbled on first play after the Carolina punt.
2) 49ers 28, Cowboys 17-- FOX had two 4:25 games; they insist on pretending the Cowboys are good, so they get marquee games. Since 1997, Dallas is 137-138 in the regular season, with one playoff win. Their last winning season was in 2009.
1) Broncos 31, Colts 24-- Week 1 so far: favorites are 4-9-1 vs spread, home dogs are 2-1. Under is 9-5 with two games left. Denver had a 24-7 lead at the half, then hung on for dear life for the win. Luck was impressive in the second half.
NFL
Monday, September 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Monday Night Football doubleheader
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New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47)
The New York Giants debut their new-look offense with hopes of avoiding a repeat of their horrific start to the 2013 campaign when they visit the Detroit Lions on Monday night in the season opener for both teams. New York put itself out of playoff contention early last year, losing its first six games thanks largely to its shoddy offensive play. The Giants led the NFL with 44 giveaways, including a league-high 27 interceptions by Eli Manning, and ranked 28th in scoring with 294 points.
Offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride promptly retired after the season and New York brought in Ben McAdoo from Green Bay to install his version of the West Coast offense - a system with which Manning struggled during the preseason. Detroit is seeking just its third winning season in the last 15 after losing six of its last seven games in 2013 - including each of its final four. Coach Jim Schwartz took the fall for the meltdown and was replaced by Jim Caldwell, whose offensive-minded approach could do wonders for a team boasting the likes of Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford and Reggie Bush.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Lions as 4-point faves, but they now have Lions -6.5. The total opened at 46 and is now 47.
INJURY REPORT: Giants - CB Prince Amukamara (Probably, groin), LB Jon Beason (Probably, foot), WR Odell Beckham (Questionable, hamstring). Lions - S James Ihedigbo (Probable, knee).
POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+3) - Lions (+3.25) + home field (-3.0) - Lions (-3.25)
WEATHER REPORT: N/A
ABOUT THE GIANTS (2013: 7-9, 7-9 ATS, 7-9 O/U, 3rd NFC East): New York will be without its 2014 first-round pick as wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. will watch from the sideline with a hamstring injury that limited him throughout the preseason. Guard Geoff Schwartz will miss the first half of the season as he was placed on injured reserve/designated to return with a dislocated big toe on his right foot. To replace him, New York signed veteran offensive lineman Adam Snyder, who was released by San Francisco on Saturday.
ABOUT THE LIONS (2013: 7-9, 6-10 ATS, 8-8 O/U, 3rd NFC North): Stafford will have a second option after Johnson this season as Detroit added Golden Tate, who made a career-high 64 receptions for Super Bowl champion Seattle last season. That's good news for Johnson, who missed two games in 2013 due to a nagging knee injury and saw action in only one preseason contest in order to maintain his good health. "My body feels great," the superstar said. "This is as good as I've felt in a while." Stafford hopes the duo will help him eclipse the 4,500-yard plateau for a fourth straight season.
TRENDS:
* Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 7-0 in Lions last seven Monday games.
* Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Monday games.
* Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 games in Week 1.
CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 60 percent of wagers are supporting the Lions.
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 46.5)
The San Diego Chargers look to get off to a better start this year as they visit the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night in the season opener for both clubs. San Diego needed to finish 2013 with a four-game winning streak in order to qualify for the playoffs, where it defeated Cincinnati in a wild-card game before falling to AFC West rival Denver in the divisional round. The Chargers rode the strong play of Philip Rivers, who completed a league-leading and career-high 69.5 percent of his passes en route to Comeback Player of the Year honors.
The Cardinals reached double digits in victories for just the second time in their 26 years in Arizona but failed to reach the postseason due to the strength of the NFC West. The club went 2-4 against division rivals in 2013, including a 23-20 loss to San Francisco in the season finale. Arizona thrived at home last season, going 6-2 while allowing an impressive 17.8 points per contest, but could be without starting running back Andre Ellington, who hurt his foot Thursday and did not practice Friday.
TV: 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Cards as 3-point faves in July and it's remained at that number. The total opened at 44.5 and is up to 46.5.
INJURY REPORT: Chargers - LB Manti Te'o (Probably, foot), TE Antonio Gates (Questionable, hamstring). Cardinals - S Tyrann Mathieu (Questionable, knee), RB Andre Ellington (Doubtful, foot).
POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (-2) + Cardinals (+1) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
WEATHER FORECAST: N/A
ABOUT THE CHARGERS (2013: 9-7, 9-6-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U, 3rd AFC West): San Diego hopes to improve upon its rank of 23rd in total defense with the return of linebacker Dwight Freeney and addition of cornerback Brandon Flowers. Freeney had his 2013 campaign abruptly ended when he tore his quadriceps in Week 4 while Flowers joins the club from division rival Kansas City, where he recorded a career-worst one interception but registered a personal-best six sacks. The Chargers were fifth in the league with an average of 393.3 total yards and could put up even better numbers with another strong effort from Rivers and a backfield that features three solid options in Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead and newcomer Donald Brown.
ABOUT THE CARDINALS (2013: 10-6, 11-5 ATS, 8-8 O/U, 3rd NFC West): Carson Palmer had a strong initial season in the desert, throwing for a career-high 4,274 yards while completing 63.3 percent of his passes - his best mark since 2007 while with Cincinnati (64.9). Arizona's defense was a strong point in 2013, ranking sixth in both yards allowed (317.4) and sacks (47), but it took a major hit afterward. Karlos Dansby exited via free agency and fellow linebacker Daryl Washington was suspended for the entire 2014 campaign after violating the league's substance policy a second time while defensive end Darnell Dockett suffered a season-ending knee injury during training camp.
TRENDS:
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last five Monday games.
* Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Under is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 games in September.
CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 53 percent of wagers are behind the Chargers.
Monday, September 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Monday Night Football doubleheader
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New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47)
The New York Giants debut their new-look offense with hopes of avoiding a repeat of their horrific start to the 2013 campaign when they visit the Detroit Lions on Monday night in the season opener for both teams. New York put itself out of playoff contention early last year, losing its first six games thanks largely to its shoddy offensive play. The Giants led the NFL with 44 giveaways, including a league-high 27 interceptions by Eli Manning, and ranked 28th in scoring with 294 points.
Offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride promptly retired after the season and New York brought in Ben McAdoo from Green Bay to install his version of the West Coast offense - a system with which Manning struggled during the preseason. Detroit is seeking just its third winning season in the last 15 after losing six of its last seven games in 2013 - including each of its final four. Coach Jim Schwartz took the fall for the meltdown and was replaced by Jim Caldwell, whose offensive-minded approach could do wonders for a team boasting the likes of Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford and Reggie Bush.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Lions as 4-point faves, but they now have Lions -6.5. The total opened at 46 and is now 47.
INJURY REPORT: Giants - CB Prince Amukamara (Probably, groin), LB Jon Beason (Probably, foot), WR Odell Beckham (Questionable, hamstring). Lions - S James Ihedigbo (Probable, knee).
POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+3) - Lions (+3.25) + home field (-3.0) - Lions (-3.25)
WEATHER REPORT: N/A
ABOUT THE GIANTS (2013: 7-9, 7-9 ATS, 7-9 O/U, 3rd NFC East): New York will be without its 2014 first-round pick as wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. will watch from the sideline with a hamstring injury that limited him throughout the preseason. Guard Geoff Schwartz will miss the first half of the season as he was placed on injured reserve/designated to return with a dislocated big toe on his right foot. To replace him, New York signed veteran offensive lineman Adam Snyder, who was released by San Francisco on Saturday.
ABOUT THE LIONS (2013: 7-9, 6-10 ATS, 8-8 O/U, 3rd NFC North): Stafford will have a second option after Johnson this season as Detroit added Golden Tate, who made a career-high 64 receptions for Super Bowl champion Seattle last season. That's good news for Johnson, who missed two games in 2013 due to a nagging knee injury and saw action in only one preseason contest in order to maintain his good health. "My body feels great," the superstar said. "This is as good as I've felt in a while." Stafford hopes the duo will help him eclipse the 4,500-yard plateau for a fourth straight season.
TRENDS:
* Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 7-0 in Lions last seven Monday games.
* Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Monday games.
* Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 games in Week 1.
CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 60 percent of wagers are supporting the Lions.
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 46.5)
The San Diego Chargers look to get off to a better start this year as they visit the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night in the season opener for both clubs. San Diego needed to finish 2013 with a four-game winning streak in order to qualify for the playoffs, where it defeated Cincinnati in a wild-card game before falling to AFC West rival Denver in the divisional round. The Chargers rode the strong play of Philip Rivers, who completed a league-leading and career-high 69.5 percent of his passes en route to Comeback Player of the Year honors.
The Cardinals reached double digits in victories for just the second time in their 26 years in Arizona but failed to reach the postseason due to the strength of the NFC West. The club went 2-4 against division rivals in 2013, including a 23-20 loss to San Francisco in the season finale. Arizona thrived at home last season, going 6-2 while allowing an impressive 17.8 points per contest, but could be without starting running back Andre Ellington, who hurt his foot Thursday and did not practice Friday.
TV: 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Cards as 3-point faves in July and it's remained at that number. The total opened at 44.5 and is up to 46.5.
INJURY REPORT: Chargers - LB Manti Te'o (Probably, foot), TE Antonio Gates (Questionable, hamstring). Cardinals - S Tyrann Mathieu (Questionable, knee), RB Andre Ellington (Doubtful, foot).
POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (-2) + Cardinals (+1) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
WEATHER FORECAST: N/A
ABOUT THE CHARGERS (2013: 9-7, 9-6-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U, 3rd AFC West): San Diego hopes to improve upon its rank of 23rd in total defense with the return of linebacker Dwight Freeney and addition of cornerback Brandon Flowers. Freeney had his 2013 campaign abruptly ended when he tore his quadriceps in Week 4 while Flowers joins the club from division rival Kansas City, where he recorded a career-worst one interception but registered a personal-best six sacks. The Chargers were fifth in the league with an average of 393.3 total yards and could put up even better numbers with another strong effort from Rivers and a backfield that features three solid options in Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead and newcomer Donald Brown.
ABOUT THE CARDINALS (2013: 10-6, 11-5 ATS, 8-8 O/U, 3rd NFC West): Carson Palmer had a strong initial season in the desert, throwing for a career-high 4,274 yards while completing 63.3 percent of his passes - his best mark since 2007 while with Cincinnati (64.9). Arizona's defense was a strong point in 2013, ranking sixth in both yards allowed (317.4) and sacks (47), but it took a major hit afterward. Karlos Dansby exited via free agency and fellow linebacker Daryl Washington was suspended for the entire 2014 campaign after violating the league's substance policy a second time while defensive end Darnell Dockett suffered a season-ending knee injury during training camp.
TRENDS:
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last five Monday games.
* Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Under is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 games in September.
CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 53 percent of wagers are behind the Chargers.
NFL
Monday, September 8
Underdogs solid ATS between Giants-Lions
The underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between the New York Giants and the Detroit Lions.
That's a trend that will gives some hope for Giants backers as they currently sit at +6.5 road dogs for the matchup. The total is presently 47.
Road team cleaning up ATS between Cardinals-Chargers
When the San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals have met recently, it's the road team that's been cashing in for spread bettors.
The visiting team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six clashes between the two. San Diego will be on the road Monday when they pay a visit to the Cardinals in the desert.
Arizona is currently three-point faves with a total of 46.5.
Trends show Chargers love high totals in September
The San Diego Chargers have a history of putting a lot of points on the board early in the year, evidenced by the Over going 4-1 in their last five September games.
The Arizona Cardinals host the Chargers in their season opening game Monday night.
The Cardinals are currently -3 faves with a total of 46.5.
Fading Super Bowl loser remains a hot trend
The Indianapolis Colts used 14-unanswered points in the fourth quarter to salvage a cover of the closing 8-point spread in their 31-24 loss to the Denver Broncos Sunday Night.
The Broncos' loss now puts the runner-up in the previous season's Super Bowl at 5-10 straight up and a dismal 3-12 against the spread in season openers since 2000.
The Super Bowl loser had taken on an average spread of -2 in Week 1 over the past 14 seasons, but after opening as touchdown faves at most shops, the Broncos closed as 8-point faves on their own turf.
Early lines have hit the board for Week 2 and oddsmakers have opened the Broncos as 12-point home faves versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
Monday, September 8
Underdogs solid ATS between Giants-Lions
The underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between the New York Giants and the Detroit Lions.
That's a trend that will gives some hope for Giants backers as they currently sit at +6.5 road dogs for the matchup. The total is presently 47.
Road team cleaning up ATS between Cardinals-Chargers
When the San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals have met recently, it's the road team that's been cashing in for spread bettors.
The visiting team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six clashes between the two. San Diego will be on the road Monday when they pay a visit to the Cardinals in the desert.
Arizona is currently three-point faves with a total of 46.5.
Trends show Chargers love high totals in September
The San Diego Chargers have a history of putting a lot of points on the board early in the year, evidenced by the Over going 4-1 in their last five September games.
The Arizona Cardinals host the Chargers in their season opening game Monday night.
The Cardinals are currently -3 faves with a total of 46.5.
Fading Super Bowl loser remains a hot trend
The Indianapolis Colts used 14-unanswered points in the fourth quarter to salvage a cover of the closing 8-point spread in their 31-24 loss to the Denver Broncos Sunday Night.
The Broncos' loss now puts the runner-up in the previous season's Super Bowl at 5-10 straight up and a dismal 3-12 against the spread in season openers since 2000.
The Super Bowl loser had taken on an average spread of -2 in Week 1 over the past 14 seasons, but after opening as touchdown faves at most shops, the Broncos closed as 8-point faves on their own turf.
Early lines have hit the board for Week 2 and oddsmakers have opened the Broncos as 12-point home faves versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
NFL Week 1 underdogs a winner for sportsbooks around the globe
The dogs had their day in Week 1 of the NFL season Sunday. Pointspread underdogs finished 10-3 ATS on the first big slate of football action in 2014, handing sportsbooks across the globe a nice win to start the season.
Following a win for the favorite in the season opener between Seattle and Green Bay Thursday night – Seahawks winning 36-16 as 4.5-point chalk – the Sunday 1 p.m. kickoffs produced underdog winners in eight of the first 10 games of the day. Houston covering as a 3-point favorite versus Washington and Philadelphia coming back from 17 points down to win 34-17 as a 10-point fave were the lone favorites to hit early.
“The early games were very good for the books, and days like these are tough on the general betting public,” a spokesman for GTBets.eu told Covers. “Notable dog covers of the day were Atlanta, Miami, and Buffalo. Had Jacksonville pulled it off, it would have been a straight massacre.”
The Falcons, Dolphins and Bills were cash cows across the board for most books as well – all winning outright as underdogs. Atlanta (+3) knocked off New Orleans 37-34 in overtime, Miami (+3.5) stunned New England 33-20, and Buffalo (+7) forced overtime and eventually won 23-20 in Chicago.
“The Falcons, Bills and Dolphins we needed big,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, tells Covers. “Every game we were exposed on landed on our side. Very good day for the first Sunday.”
UK-based sportsbooks watched plenty of parlays burn up early with big favorites like the Patriots and Saints go down. According to Ladbrokes, Chicago was a very popular tie-in on many punters’ parlays cards, with many expecting the Bears to easily cover the touchdown spread at home.
“We did indeed have a very good Sunday with particularly well-backed favorites New England and New Orleans both losing being the most profitable of the results,” Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes tells Covers. “Chicago losing at home to Buffalo was also a good result as many punters included the Bears as a banker bet in multiples.”
In Las Vegas, bookmakers celebrated similar results. In the late afternoon starts, Carolina’s 20-14 win over Tampa Bay - with backup QB Derek Anderson in for the injured Cam Newton – was the biggest winner of the day at MGM properties.
“Carolina was the biggest win for us, beating the Bucs,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, tells Covers. “That, then the Bills and the Bears tied for second. A short third was the Falcons beating the Saints.”
And even when the favorite did cash in Sunday, sportsbooks were still reaping the rewards. San Francisco dominated Dallas 28-17 as 4-point chalk. Stoneback says the wiseguy money jumped on the Cowboys, eclipsing what the public was betting on the 49ers.
“It was actually our fourth-best result of the day,” he says. “All the sharp money was on Dallas but we still had people betting the Niners. All the parlay cards and ticket count was high on San Francisco, but an onslaught of sharp money on Dallas made it a winner for us.”
The Sunday Night Football finish, with Indianapolis just covering as a 7.5-point underdog, was actually a breakeven game for bookmakers. Stoneback says there was so much first-half action on Denver and Over that it wiped out any profit from the overall game result.
“It was a small winner if that. Ninety-nine percent of the first-half bets were on Denver and the Over,” he says.
As for Monday night’s games, Stoneback doesn’t see the betting public blindly following the red-hot underdog trend from Sunday. Early money has come in on the Lions (-6.5) versus New York while siding with San Diego (+2.5).
“We’ll likely need the Giants and Cardinals, so we’ll be rooting for at least one favorite,” says Stoneback.
The dogs had their day in Week 1 of the NFL season Sunday. Pointspread underdogs finished 10-3 ATS on the first big slate of football action in 2014, handing sportsbooks across the globe a nice win to start the season.
Following a win for the favorite in the season opener between Seattle and Green Bay Thursday night – Seahawks winning 36-16 as 4.5-point chalk – the Sunday 1 p.m. kickoffs produced underdog winners in eight of the first 10 games of the day. Houston covering as a 3-point favorite versus Washington and Philadelphia coming back from 17 points down to win 34-17 as a 10-point fave were the lone favorites to hit early.
“The early games were very good for the books, and days like these are tough on the general betting public,” a spokesman for GTBets.eu told Covers. “Notable dog covers of the day were Atlanta, Miami, and Buffalo. Had Jacksonville pulled it off, it would have been a straight massacre.”
The Falcons, Dolphins and Bills were cash cows across the board for most books as well – all winning outright as underdogs. Atlanta (+3) knocked off New Orleans 37-34 in overtime, Miami (+3.5) stunned New England 33-20, and Buffalo (+7) forced overtime and eventually won 23-20 in Chicago.
“The Falcons, Bills and Dolphins we needed big,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, tells Covers. “Every game we were exposed on landed on our side. Very good day for the first Sunday.”
UK-based sportsbooks watched plenty of parlays burn up early with big favorites like the Patriots and Saints go down. According to Ladbrokes, Chicago was a very popular tie-in on many punters’ parlays cards, with many expecting the Bears to easily cover the touchdown spread at home.
“We did indeed have a very good Sunday with particularly well-backed favorites New England and New Orleans both losing being the most profitable of the results,” Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes tells Covers. “Chicago losing at home to Buffalo was also a good result as many punters included the Bears as a banker bet in multiples.”
In Las Vegas, bookmakers celebrated similar results. In the late afternoon starts, Carolina’s 20-14 win over Tampa Bay - with backup QB Derek Anderson in for the injured Cam Newton – was the biggest winner of the day at MGM properties.
“Carolina was the biggest win for us, beating the Bucs,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, tells Covers. “That, then the Bills and the Bears tied for second. A short third was the Falcons beating the Saints.”
And even when the favorite did cash in Sunday, sportsbooks were still reaping the rewards. San Francisco dominated Dallas 28-17 as 4-point chalk. Stoneback says the wiseguy money jumped on the Cowboys, eclipsing what the public was betting on the 49ers.
“It was actually our fourth-best result of the day,” he says. “All the sharp money was on Dallas but we still had people betting the Niners. All the parlay cards and ticket count was high on San Francisco, but an onslaught of sharp money on Dallas made it a winner for us.”
The Sunday Night Football finish, with Indianapolis just covering as a 7.5-point underdog, was actually a breakeven game for bookmakers. Stoneback says there was so much first-half action on Denver and Over that it wiped out any profit from the overall game result.
“It was a small winner if that. Ninety-nine percent of the first-half bets were on Denver and the Over,” he says.
As for Monday night’s games, Stoneback doesn’t see the betting public blindly following the red-hot underdog trend from Sunday. Early money has come in on the Lions (-6.5) versus New York while siding with San Diego (+2.5).
“We’ll likely need the Giants and Cardinals, so we’ll be rooting for at least one favorite,” says Stoneback.
Sunday's Rated Games:
*****........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................3 - 2
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/07/14 16-*10-*0 6153% +*2500 Detail
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 17-*11-*0 60.71% +2450
Monday, September 8
Game Score Status Pick Amount
N.Y. Giants - 7:10 PM ET N.Y. Giants +4.5 500 *****
Detroit - Over 45 500 DOUBLE PLAY
San Diego - 10:20 PM ET Arizona -2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Arizona - Under 46 500 *****
*****........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................3 - 2
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/07/14 16-*10-*0 6153% +*2500 Detail
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 17-*11-*0 60.71% +2450
Monday, September 8
Game Score Status Pick Amount
N.Y. Giants - 7:10 PM ET N.Y. Giants +4.5 500 *****
Detroit - Over 45 500 DOUBLE PLAY
San Diego - 10:20 PM ET Arizona -2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Arizona - Under 46 500 *****
Monday's Doubleheader
September 7, 2014
N.Y. Giants (0-0) at Detroit (0-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Detroit -6, Total: 47
Opening Line and Total: Detroit -4, Total 45.5
Two disappointing 2013 NFC teams look to start off the 2014 season with a confidence-building victory.
Last season, the Giants and Lions both had high expectations for themselves, but they both ended the year 7-9 SU. New York lost the first six games of the season in 2013 and that hole was too deep to dig out of. The Lions, on the other hand, were plagued by inconsistency all season and were never able to find their groove. When these teams met last year, the Giants prevailed 23-20 in Detroit. The game was decided on a field goal in overtime. Since 1992, the Giants are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS when playing on the road against the Lions. Since becoming the coach of the Giants, Tom Coughlin is 10-2 ATS in road games versus an NFC North opponent. For those interested in betting the total, 10 of the past 12 Monday night games that Detroit has played in have gone Under.
The Giants struggled last season, and a lot of that had to do with the poor play of their quarterback, Eli Manning. The two-time Super Bowl MVP threw for just 18 touchdowns with a career-worst 27 interceptions. New York brought in new offensive coordinator, Ben McAdoo, who will bring a similar look to what the Packers have done over the past few years. McAdoo has spent time as Aaron Rodgers’ quarterbacks coach, and the Giants are hoping that he can turn Manning back into a solid signal caller. If he is not taking care of the ball in this game, the Giants will struggle. Another player New York will rely on offensively is new RB Rashad Jennings.
The Giants signed the former Raiders rusher after a season in which he carried the football 163 times for 733 yards (4.5 YPC) and six touchdowns. Jennings is the type of no-nonsense runner that Tom Coughlin was begging for the past couple of years. His Week 1 matchup against a tough Lions front line will not be easy. The Giants defense will need to improve from last year. They allowed 223.3 passing yards per game (10th in NFL) and 108.9 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL). While those numbers don’t seem terrible, the Giants defense kept them out of many games last season. The addition of CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie should be a major boost to their secondary.
The Lions are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and it’s only a matter of time before they make themselves a threat in the NFC. The Lions brought in a new head coach in Jim Caldwell and new offensive coordinator in Joe Lombardi, who spent last season with the Saints and hopes to bring over a very similar attack. Last season, QB Matt Stafford threw for 4,650 yards with 29 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. If he can master the same offense that Drew Brees did, Stafford could be in for a big year. WR Calvin Johnson is fresh off a season in which he caught 84 passes for 1,492 yards and 12 touchdowns. He is also as healthy as he’s been in recent memory.
The signing of WR Golden Tate, who had 64 receptions for 898 yards and five touchdowns last year for Seattle, will allow Johnson to work with more room on the field. Against the Giants, it would be wise for this team to balance its offense with a heavy dose of RBs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. At times they get too predictable when forcing the ball to Calvin Johnson. They will need to open up the field to beat the Giants. Detroit has one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL. The club allowed just 99.8 yards per game on the ground (6th in NFL) last season. The Lions must, however, improve their secondary. Last season, they were allowing 246.9 yards per game through the air (23rd in NFL).
San Diego (0-0) at Arizona (0-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Arizona -3, Total: 45
Opening Line and Total: Arizona -3.5, Total 44.5
Two of the more surprising 2013 teams face off Monday night in Arizona when the Cardinals host the Chargers.
Last season, both the Chargers and Cardinals flew under the radar but terrorized opposing coaches. San Diego went 9-7 SU and stole a Wild Card playoff spot in the AFC. Arizona missed the playoffs despite going 10-6 SU while even winning a road game in Seattle. These two teams rarely get the opportunity to face one another in the regular season, but when they have, it has been all San Diego. Since 1992, the Chargers are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS when playing against the Cardinals. When the teams have met in Arizona, San Diego has gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS.
Since 1992, the Chargers are 23-10 ATS in dome games. Bruce Arians, however, has gone 7-0 ATS as the Cardinals coach in home games where the Total is between 42.5 and 49 points. Four of the past seven games in this series have gone Over the total. The big injury news in this contest is Arizona star RB Andre Ellington, who is questionable with a foot injury. Teammate S Tyrann Mathieu (knee) is also questionable, while the Chargers have no key players that are questionable or doubtful for this game.
The Chargers were not expected to make the playoffs in the AFC last season, but they ended up winning 27-10 against the Bengals in the Wild Card round before losing to the Broncos 24-17 in the divisional round. Philip Rivers completely turned his career around last season, throwing for 4,478 yards with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Rivers was accurate and made plays whenever his team needed him. One of the biggest recipients of Rivers' play was rookie WR Keenan Allen who caught 71 passes for 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns last season. The Chargers are hoping he can jump into the league’s elite in his sophomore campaign. If the passing game doesn’t get going for the Chargers, they’ll have a lot of trouble winning this game.
Arizona’s strength is stopping the run, so Rivers will need to make the most of his pass attempts. When he does hand the ball off, it will be to the three-person committee of RBs Ryan Mathews, Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead. San Diego had a solid rush defense last year, allowing just 107.8 yards per game on the ground (12th in NFL). However, the club will need to improve in defending the pass. The Chargers allowed 258.7 yards per game through the air (29th in NFL) last year. If they show up sluggish in Week 1, Carson Palmer could make them pay with deep balls quite often.
Arizona had a great season last year, but now it must set its sights on making small improvements to secure a spot in the postseason. Carson Palmer is back to orchestrate the offense after a year in which he threw for 4,274 yards with 24 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. The Cardinals will want him to make better decisions this season as he throws to a talented group of wide receivers. Also expected to lead this team is RB Andre Ellington. The former Clemson running back rushed for 652 yards and three touchdowns on just 118 carries last season. He also caught 39 balls for 371 yards and a touchdown. Ellington has breakaway speed at the running back position, but it's not clear yet if he will be sidelined by his foot injury.
The Cardinals also bolstered the best rushing defense in the league last year, allowing just 84.4 yards per game (1st in NFL). The loss of DL Darnell Dockett (knee, IR) could set them back a little in that area, but they should still be one of the better units in the league. Their secondary has some room to improve, as they allowed 233.0 yards per game through the air (14th in NFL). CB Patrick Peterson will look to establish himself as the top shutdown corner in football this season.
September 7, 2014
N.Y. Giants (0-0) at Detroit (0-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Detroit -6, Total: 47
Opening Line and Total: Detroit -4, Total 45.5
Two disappointing 2013 NFC teams look to start off the 2014 season with a confidence-building victory.
Last season, the Giants and Lions both had high expectations for themselves, but they both ended the year 7-9 SU. New York lost the first six games of the season in 2013 and that hole was too deep to dig out of. The Lions, on the other hand, were plagued by inconsistency all season and were never able to find their groove. When these teams met last year, the Giants prevailed 23-20 in Detroit. The game was decided on a field goal in overtime. Since 1992, the Giants are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS when playing on the road against the Lions. Since becoming the coach of the Giants, Tom Coughlin is 10-2 ATS in road games versus an NFC North opponent. For those interested in betting the total, 10 of the past 12 Monday night games that Detroit has played in have gone Under.
The Giants struggled last season, and a lot of that had to do with the poor play of their quarterback, Eli Manning. The two-time Super Bowl MVP threw for just 18 touchdowns with a career-worst 27 interceptions. New York brought in new offensive coordinator, Ben McAdoo, who will bring a similar look to what the Packers have done over the past few years. McAdoo has spent time as Aaron Rodgers’ quarterbacks coach, and the Giants are hoping that he can turn Manning back into a solid signal caller. If he is not taking care of the ball in this game, the Giants will struggle. Another player New York will rely on offensively is new RB Rashad Jennings.
The Giants signed the former Raiders rusher after a season in which he carried the football 163 times for 733 yards (4.5 YPC) and six touchdowns. Jennings is the type of no-nonsense runner that Tom Coughlin was begging for the past couple of years. His Week 1 matchup against a tough Lions front line will not be easy. The Giants defense will need to improve from last year. They allowed 223.3 passing yards per game (10th in NFL) and 108.9 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL). While those numbers don’t seem terrible, the Giants defense kept them out of many games last season. The addition of CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie should be a major boost to their secondary.
The Lions are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and it’s only a matter of time before they make themselves a threat in the NFC. The Lions brought in a new head coach in Jim Caldwell and new offensive coordinator in Joe Lombardi, who spent last season with the Saints and hopes to bring over a very similar attack. Last season, QB Matt Stafford threw for 4,650 yards with 29 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. If he can master the same offense that Drew Brees did, Stafford could be in for a big year. WR Calvin Johnson is fresh off a season in which he caught 84 passes for 1,492 yards and 12 touchdowns. He is also as healthy as he’s been in recent memory.
The signing of WR Golden Tate, who had 64 receptions for 898 yards and five touchdowns last year for Seattle, will allow Johnson to work with more room on the field. Against the Giants, it would be wise for this team to balance its offense with a heavy dose of RBs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. At times they get too predictable when forcing the ball to Calvin Johnson. They will need to open up the field to beat the Giants. Detroit has one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL. The club allowed just 99.8 yards per game on the ground (6th in NFL) last season. The Lions must, however, improve their secondary. Last season, they were allowing 246.9 yards per game through the air (23rd in NFL).
San Diego (0-0) at Arizona (0-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Arizona -3, Total: 45
Opening Line and Total: Arizona -3.5, Total 44.5
Two of the more surprising 2013 teams face off Monday night in Arizona when the Cardinals host the Chargers.
Last season, both the Chargers and Cardinals flew under the radar but terrorized opposing coaches. San Diego went 9-7 SU and stole a Wild Card playoff spot in the AFC. Arizona missed the playoffs despite going 10-6 SU while even winning a road game in Seattle. These two teams rarely get the opportunity to face one another in the regular season, but when they have, it has been all San Diego. Since 1992, the Chargers are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS when playing against the Cardinals. When the teams have met in Arizona, San Diego has gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS.
Since 1992, the Chargers are 23-10 ATS in dome games. Bruce Arians, however, has gone 7-0 ATS as the Cardinals coach in home games where the Total is between 42.5 and 49 points. Four of the past seven games in this series have gone Over the total. The big injury news in this contest is Arizona star RB Andre Ellington, who is questionable with a foot injury. Teammate S Tyrann Mathieu (knee) is also questionable, while the Chargers have no key players that are questionable or doubtful for this game.
The Chargers were not expected to make the playoffs in the AFC last season, but they ended up winning 27-10 against the Bengals in the Wild Card round before losing to the Broncos 24-17 in the divisional round. Philip Rivers completely turned his career around last season, throwing for 4,478 yards with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Rivers was accurate and made plays whenever his team needed him. One of the biggest recipients of Rivers' play was rookie WR Keenan Allen who caught 71 passes for 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns last season. The Chargers are hoping he can jump into the league’s elite in his sophomore campaign. If the passing game doesn’t get going for the Chargers, they’ll have a lot of trouble winning this game.
Arizona’s strength is stopping the run, so Rivers will need to make the most of his pass attempts. When he does hand the ball off, it will be to the three-person committee of RBs Ryan Mathews, Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead. San Diego had a solid rush defense last year, allowing just 107.8 yards per game on the ground (12th in NFL). However, the club will need to improve in defending the pass. The Chargers allowed 258.7 yards per game through the air (29th in NFL) last year. If they show up sluggish in Week 1, Carson Palmer could make them pay with deep balls quite often.
Arizona had a great season last year, but now it must set its sights on making small improvements to secure a spot in the postseason. Carson Palmer is back to orchestrate the offense after a year in which he threw for 4,274 yards with 24 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. The Cardinals will want him to make better decisions this season as he throws to a talented group of wide receivers. Also expected to lead this team is RB Andre Ellington. The former Clemson running back rushed for 652 yards and three touchdowns on just 118 carries last season. He also caught 39 balls for 371 yards and a touchdown. Ellington has breakaway speed at the running back position, but it's not clear yet if he will be sidelined by his foot injury.
The Cardinals also bolstered the best rushing defense in the league last year, allowing just 84.4 yards per game (1st in NFL). The loss of DL Darnell Dockett (knee, IR) could set them back a little in that area, but they should still be one of the better units in the league. Their secondary has some room to improve, as they allowed 233.0 yards per game through the air (14th in NFL). CB Patrick Peterson will look to establish himself as the top shutdown corner in football this season.
Monday's Tip Sheet
September 7, 2014
Giants at Lions (-6 ½, 47) – 7:10 PM EST
New York finished the preseason unbeaten at 5-0, but that won’t exactly predict regular season success. The Giants began the 2013 campaign at 0-6, which not covering their first five games. New York heads to the Motor City for the season opener, taking on a Lions’ team searching for the magic of their playoff season in 2011, when Detroit started 5-0.
The Lions are loaded offensively with Matt Stafford, Reggie Bush, and Calvin Johnson at the skill positions, but Detroit dropped six of its final seven games to close out the 2013 season at 6-10. In that 1-6 stretch, Detroit covered only one time as Jim Schwartz is out as head coach and former Colts’ head man Jim Caldwell will run things this season for the Lions.
The Giants finished strong after the slow start by winning seven of the final 10 games last season, which included a 23-20 overtime triumph at Ford Field as 9 ½-point underdogs. The Lions erased a 13-3 deficit by tying the Giants at 20-20 with an interception return for a touchdown, but Josh Brown’s 45-yard field goal halfway through overtime lifted New York to the victory. The Giants have won each of the last three meetings with the Lions since 2007, which includes a pair of wins at Ford Field.
Under Tom Coughlin, the Giants have been a great ‘over’ team in road openers, going 9-1 to the ‘over’ in this situation since 2004. Last season, New York fell at Dallas in Week 1 by a 36-31 count, easily going ‘over’ the total of 48 ½. From a defensive standpoint, the Giants were torched in 2013 by allowing at least allowing at least 27 points five times away from Met Life Stadium, but cashed the ‘over’ in just three road contests.
Detroit hasn’t been a profitable team to back at Ford Field the last two seasons, posting a 5-10-1 ATS record, which includes a 3-5 ATS record in 2013. The Lions have won each of their past three season openers, including a 34-24 triumph over the Vikings in 2013 as four-point favorites. Detroit is playing its third Monday night game ever at Ford Field, as the Lions took care of the Bears, 24-13 in 2011 en route to a 5-0 start. Last season, the Lions lost on a last-second field goal to the Ravens as 4 ½-point favorites, 18-16, damaging any kind of playoff hopes in December.
Chargers at Cardinals (-3, 46 ½) – 10:20 PM EST
This situation doesn’t happen very often, when two teams play in the final preseason game then turn around and face off in the regular season opener. That’s the case in Glendale on Monday, as the Chargers won a 12-9 thriller against the Cardinals last week in a game in which no touchdowns were scored and no significant players participated.
San Diego found a way to qualify for the playoffs in 2013 with a 9-7 record thanks to four straight wins to end the season. The Chargers shocked the Bengals as six-point road underdogs in the Wild Card round, 27-10, but fell short in the divisional playoffs to the Broncos, but cashed as 7 ½-point ‘dogs. In Mike McCoy’s initial season as head coach of the Lightning Bolts, San Diego managed a 5-1-1 ATS record in the away underdog role, which included outright victories at Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Denver.
The Cardinals put together an impressive season at 10-6, but that was good for third place in the NFC West behind the Seahawks and 49ers, while missing the playoffs. Following a 3-4 start, Arizona won seven of its final nine games, as both losses in that stretch came by three points each to Philadelphia and San Francisco. Bruce Arians’ team compiled a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS record at University of Phoenix Stadium, but the Cardinals are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against AFC opponents since 2011.
In the last regular season matchup between these teams, the Chargers blasted the Cardinals, 41-10 early in the 2010 season. San Diego is making its first meaningful trip to University of Phoenix Stadium, as the Bolts beat the Cardinals in their last regular season visit to Arizona in 2002 by a 23-15 count at Sun Devil Stadium.
September 7, 2014
Giants at Lions (-6 ½, 47) – 7:10 PM EST
New York finished the preseason unbeaten at 5-0, but that won’t exactly predict regular season success. The Giants began the 2013 campaign at 0-6, which not covering their first five games. New York heads to the Motor City for the season opener, taking on a Lions’ team searching for the magic of their playoff season in 2011, when Detroit started 5-0.
The Lions are loaded offensively with Matt Stafford, Reggie Bush, and Calvin Johnson at the skill positions, but Detroit dropped six of its final seven games to close out the 2013 season at 6-10. In that 1-6 stretch, Detroit covered only one time as Jim Schwartz is out as head coach and former Colts’ head man Jim Caldwell will run things this season for the Lions.
The Giants finished strong after the slow start by winning seven of the final 10 games last season, which included a 23-20 overtime triumph at Ford Field as 9 ½-point underdogs. The Lions erased a 13-3 deficit by tying the Giants at 20-20 with an interception return for a touchdown, but Josh Brown’s 45-yard field goal halfway through overtime lifted New York to the victory. The Giants have won each of the last three meetings with the Lions since 2007, which includes a pair of wins at Ford Field.
Under Tom Coughlin, the Giants have been a great ‘over’ team in road openers, going 9-1 to the ‘over’ in this situation since 2004. Last season, New York fell at Dallas in Week 1 by a 36-31 count, easily going ‘over’ the total of 48 ½. From a defensive standpoint, the Giants were torched in 2013 by allowing at least allowing at least 27 points five times away from Met Life Stadium, but cashed the ‘over’ in just three road contests.
Detroit hasn’t been a profitable team to back at Ford Field the last two seasons, posting a 5-10-1 ATS record, which includes a 3-5 ATS record in 2013. The Lions have won each of their past three season openers, including a 34-24 triumph over the Vikings in 2013 as four-point favorites. Detroit is playing its third Monday night game ever at Ford Field, as the Lions took care of the Bears, 24-13 in 2011 en route to a 5-0 start. Last season, the Lions lost on a last-second field goal to the Ravens as 4 ½-point favorites, 18-16, damaging any kind of playoff hopes in December.
Chargers at Cardinals (-3, 46 ½) – 10:20 PM EST
This situation doesn’t happen very often, when two teams play in the final preseason game then turn around and face off in the regular season opener. That’s the case in Glendale on Monday, as the Chargers won a 12-9 thriller against the Cardinals last week in a game in which no touchdowns were scored and no significant players participated.
San Diego found a way to qualify for the playoffs in 2013 with a 9-7 record thanks to four straight wins to end the season. The Chargers shocked the Bengals as six-point road underdogs in the Wild Card round, 27-10, but fell short in the divisional playoffs to the Broncos, but cashed as 7 ½-point ‘dogs. In Mike McCoy’s initial season as head coach of the Lightning Bolts, San Diego managed a 5-1-1 ATS record in the away underdog role, which included outright victories at Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Denver.
The Cardinals put together an impressive season at 10-6, but that was good for third place in the NFC West behind the Seahawks and 49ers, while missing the playoffs. Following a 3-4 start, Arizona won seven of its final nine games, as both losses in that stretch came by three points each to Philadelphia and San Francisco. Bruce Arians’ team compiled a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS record at University of Phoenix Stadium, but the Cardinals are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against AFC opponents since 2011.
In the last regular season matchup between these teams, the Chargers blasted the Cardinals, 41-10 early in the 2010 season. San Diego is making its first meaningful trip to University of Phoenix Stadium, as the Bolts beat the Cardinals in their last regular season visit to Arizona in 2002 by a 23-15 count at Sun Devil Stadium.
Sportsbooks win Week 1
September 8, 2014
After the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks trounced the Green Bay Packers 36-16 last Thursday to open the 2014 NFL season, there was no way of predicting what would happen next. Public money came in on the Packers, pushing the Seahawks from 5-point favorites to -4.5 at close, and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook got an early win.
But Sunday’s Week 1 action made the SuperBook and other sportsbooks even bigger winners, with underdogs going 7-6 straight-up and 10-3 against the spread. Wins by the Miami Dolphins (33-20 vs. the New England Patriots), the Atlanta Falcons (37-34 in overtime vs. the New Orleans Saints) and Buffalo Bills (23-20 in OT at the Chicago Bears) as dogs set the tone for a great day, according to Jay Kornegay, the SuperBook’s Vice President of Race & Sports Operations.
“The upsets – not just the covers but the outright wins by some of the underdogs – certainly treated us well,” Kornegay said. “Our bigger decisions of the day were a lot of these short favorites that so many public bettors like to support. The Saints they love, the Patriots. The 49ers got there for them, but by that time the damage had been done.
“It’s always those short favorites that we see, teams that attract a lot of public play. In the morning games, the two biggest short public teams, road favorites, lost and those were two really big decisions for us. It seems like the old days. Home dogs kind of came through for us.”
One home favorite that helped sportsbooks a lot by losing on Sunday was the Bears, who opened at -6.5 and closed at -7. Chicago tends to be a very public team and busted many parlay and teaser cards.
“As far as underdogs winning and covering, I’d have to say the Bears and the defense,” Kornegay said. “The Bills never winning in Chicago and going in there and finally winning with all their struggles at quarterback. Their linebackers are just awful.
“I’d have to say that’s one of the bigger surprises and one of our better decisions. I think that was the last straw that kind of broke the camel’s back for a lot of the bettors out there. It was the teaser killer.”
While the public won some money back on San Francisco’s 28-17 road win against the Dallas Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites, many sportsbooks were able to come right back in the Sunday Night Football game when the Indianapolis Colts (+8.5) rallied back to cover the spread in a 31-24 road loss to the Denver Broncos. However, Kornegay said the SuperBook did not really need the Colts in that one.
“The Bronco game, a lot people thought we did really well,” Konegay sad. “But we actually had a few bigger bets on the Colts. We didn’t mind accepting those thinking that we could have a liability going to the Broncos no matter what happened. Well, we didn’t think that many underdogs were going to cover, which basically eliminated so many parlays. By the time we got to the late game, it was pretty well balanced.”
The biggest line move of Week 1 took place in an NFC South matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers, who sat starting quarterback Cam Newton due to a rib injury. The Bucs opened as 2.5-point home underdogs and closed -4.5 at the SuperBook, with the line jumping from -3 when news broke that Carolina head coach Ron Rivera would likely make Newton inactive.
Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, had said late last week that the Panthers were still a good team regardless of Newton’s status, so he was not surprised by the result.
“I don’t know if they’re good or Tampa’s just not quite there yet,” Avello said. “Tampa’s probably got a long way to go. MCown’s not going to come in and be the answer and turn that team around in one year. They’ll be alright. They did fight back in the game.”
Like Kornegay, Avello said he was surprised by a few other teams that did disappoint bettors as favorites.
“The Bears losing at home was a surprise, the Patriots losing was a surprise, but I did expect big things from Miami this year,” Avello said. “The other game is probably Kansas City, the way they got beat at home because that’s usually a strong home field.”
The Chiefs looked like the same team that blew a 38-10 lead in a 45-44 loss to the Colts in the playoffs back in January, falling at home to the Tennessee Titans 26-10 as 3-point favorites. They seemed to pick up where they left off last season, just like the Bears, who some thought had fixed their defense.
“It was amazing though how we have these games up for four-and-a- half-months, all the analysis and the data and simulations and everything,” Kornegay said. “And there we are sitting at the end of day one, and a lot of us are scratching our heads. Wow, that’s not what I thought was going to happen in a lot of those games. Not all of them, but a lot of them.” Ironically, Kornegay said one of Sunday’s bigger stunners actually came courtesy of a double-digit favorite that trailed big early and not only came back to win but still managed to cover as well.
“The biggest surprise was probably the Eagles covered despite being down 17-0,” said Kornegay about Philadelphia, the biggest favorite in Week 1 at -10 who scored 34 points unanswered in a 34-17 victory.
September 8, 2014
After the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks trounced the Green Bay Packers 36-16 last Thursday to open the 2014 NFL season, there was no way of predicting what would happen next. Public money came in on the Packers, pushing the Seahawks from 5-point favorites to -4.5 at close, and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook got an early win.
But Sunday’s Week 1 action made the SuperBook and other sportsbooks even bigger winners, with underdogs going 7-6 straight-up and 10-3 against the spread. Wins by the Miami Dolphins (33-20 vs. the New England Patriots), the Atlanta Falcons (37-34 in overtime vs. the New Orleans Saints) and Buffalo Bills (23-20 in OT at the Chicago Bears) as dogs set the tone for a great day, according to Jay Kornegay, the SuperBook’s Vice President of Race & Sports Operations.
“The upsets – not just the covers but the outright wins by some of the underdogs – certainly treated us well,” Kornegay said. “Our bigger decisions of the day were a lot of these short favorites that so many public bettors like to support. The Saints they love, the Patriots. The 49ers got there for them, but by that time the damage had been done.
“It’s always those short favorites that we see, teams that attract a lot of public play. In the morning games, the two biggest short public teams, road favorites, lost and those were two really big decisions for us. It seems like the old days. Home dogs kind of came through for us.”
One home favorite that helped sportsbooks a lot by losing on Sunday was the Bears, who opened at -6.5 and closed at -7. Chicago tends to be a very public team and busted many parlay and teaser cards.
“As far as underdogs winning and covering, I’d have to say the Bears and the defense,” Kornegay said. “The Bills never winning in Chicago and going in there and finally winning with all their struggles at quarterback. Their linebackers are just awful.
“I’d have to say that’s one of the bigger surprises and one of our better decisions. I think that was the last straw that kind of broke the camel’s back for a lot of the bettors out there. It was the teaser killer.”
While the public won some money back on San Francisco’s 28-17 road win against the Dallas Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites, many sportsbooks were able to come right back in the Sunday Night Football game when the Indianapolis Colts (+8.5) rallied back to cover the spread in a 31-24 road loss to the Denver Broncos. However, Kornegay said the SuperBook did not really need the Colts in that one.
“The Bronco game, a lot people thought we did really well,” Konegay sad. “But we actually had a few bigger bets on the Colts. We didn’t mind accepting those thinking that we could have a liability going to the Broncos no matter what happened. Well, we didn’t think that many underdogs were going to cover, which basically eliminated so many parlays. By the time we got to the late game, it was pretty well balanced.”
The biggest line move of Week 1 took place in an NFC South matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers, who sat starting quarterback Cam Newton due to a rib injury. The Bucs opened as 2.5-point home underdogs and closed -4.5 at the SuperBook, with the line jumping from -3 when news broke that Carolina head coach Ron Rivera would likely make Newton inactive.
Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, had said late last week that the Panthers were still a good team regardless of Newton’s status, so he was not surprised by the result.
“I don’t know if they’re good or Tampa’s just not quite there yet,” Avello said. “Tampa’s probably got a long way to go. MCown’s not going to come in and be the answer and turn that team around in one year. They’ll be alright. They did fight back in the game.”
Like Kornegay, Avello said he was surprised by a few other teams that did disappoint bettors as favorites.
“The Bears losing at home was a surprise, the Patriots losing was a surprise, but I did expect big things from Miami this year,” Avello said. “The other game is probably Kansas City, the way they got beat at home because that’s usually a strong home field.”
The Chiefs looked like the same team that blew a 38-10 lead in a 45-44 loss to the Colts in the playoffs back in January, falling at home to the Tennessee Titans 26-10 as 3-point favorites. They seemed to pick up where they left off last season, just like the Bears, who some thought had fixed their defense.
“It was amazing though how we have these games up for four-and-a- half-months, all the analysis and the data and simulations and everything,” Kornegay said. “And there we are sitting at the end of day one, and a lot of us are scratching our heads. Wow, that’s not what I thought was going to happen in a lot of those games. Not all of them, but a lot of them.” Ironically, Kornegay said one of Sunday’s bigger stunners actually came courtesy of a double-digit favorite that trailed big early and not only came back to win but still managed to cover as well.
“The biggest surprise was probably the Eagles covered despite being down 17-0,” said Kornegay about Philadelphia, the biggest favorite in Week 1 at -10 who scored 34 points unanswered in a 34-17 victory.
NFL Betting Recap - Week 1
September 7, 2014
Overall Notes
NFL Week 1 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-7
Against the Spread 4-10
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-6
Against the Spread 4-10
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8
Biggest Favorite to Cash
Philadelphia (-10) defeated Jacksonville, 34-17
Biggest Underdog to Cash
Buffalo (+7, +250 ML) defeated Chicago, 23-20 (OT)
Blowing in the Wind
-- Three public favorites were on their way to cashing easily, but the Steelers, Saints, and Patriots failed to cover. Pittsburgh managed a last-second field goal to edge Cleveland as six-point home favorites, 30-27, as the Steelers squandered a 27-3 lead before the Browns rallied to tie the game at 27-27.
-- New Orleans and New England weren't as lucky in the road 'chalk' role. The Saints blew a 13-0 advantage in a 37-34 setback to the Falcons in overtime, as Atlanta tied the game with a last-second field at the end of regulation. Atlanta cashed as three-point home favorites, while avenging a pair of losses to New Orleans last season.
-- The Patriots threw away a 17-7 edge at Miami, as the Dolphins outscored New England, 26-3 in the final 32 minutes of a 33-20 loss at Sun Life Stadium. New England closed as 3 ½-point road favorites, as Bill Belichick's team lost its season opener for the first time since 2003.
Back (and front) door left open
-- The Raiders were totally outclassed by the Jets in Week 1, getting outgained 402-158. However, Oakland managed to cash as six-point road underdogs in a 19-14 defeat at New York thanks to a Derek Carr touchdown pass in the final two minutes.
-- So you think you were sharp by taking the Jaguars and 10 points. Things looked good for Jacksonville backers with a 17-0 halftime advantage, but Philadelphia scored the final 34 points of the game, capped off by a fumble return for a touchdown with 1:23 left to cover the double-digit line. Fair to say (after the fact) that taking the Eagles -7 ½ in the second half was probably the easiest second half bet of the week.
Bark like a dog
-- Nine underdogs cashed on Sunday afternoon, including four road teams that won outright. Cincinnati and Minnesota weren't that shocking, but how many people had Buffalo winning at Chicago? The Bills built a 17-7 halftime lead at Soldier Field as seven-point underdogs, but Chicago rallied to tie the game and force overtime. Following a Chicago punt on its first possession of overtime, Buffalo drove for the game-winning field goal to shock the Bears, 23-20.
-- The Titans opened as six-point underdogs at Kansas City, but that line moved all the way down to three at kickoff. Tennessee rolled at Arrowhead Stadium, 26-10, knocking off the defending AFC West champions by limiting Kansas City to 245 yards of offense. For the second straight season, the Titans won their season opener on the road in the underdog role, as Tennessee stunned Pittsburgh last season in Week 1.
Chase is on
-- For the bettors that lost with favorites in the 1:00 kickoffs, have no fear because the 49ers took care of the business in the dreaded "chase" game with a 28-17 victory at Dallas as 3 ½-point road favorites. The same can't be said for those who wanted to fade Carolina after news broke that Cam Newton was inactive. The Panthers played very well without their starting quarterback as Derek Anderson led Carolina to a 20-14 triumph at Tampa Bay as four-point 'dogs, while the two touchdowns by the Bucs came in the fourth quarter.
September 7, 2014
Overall Notes
NFL Week 1 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-7
Against the Spread 4-10
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-6
Against the Spread 4-10
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8
Biggest Favorite to Cash
Philadelphia (-10) defeated Jacksonville, 34-17
Biggest Underdog to Cash
Buffalo (+7, +250 ML) defeated Chicago, 23-20 (OT)
Blowing in the Wind
-- Three public favorites were on their way to cashing easily, but the Steelers, Saints, and Patriots failed to cover. Pittsburgh managed a last-second field goal to edge Cleveland as six-point home favorites, 30-27, as the Steelers squandered a 27-3 lead before the Browns rallied to tie the game at 27-27.
-- New Orleans and New England weren't as lucky in the road 'chalk' role. The Saints blew a 13-0 advantage in a 37-34 setback to the Falcons in overtime, as Atlanta tied the game with a last-second field at the end of regulation. Atlanta cashed as three-point home favorites, while avenging a pair of losses to New Orleans last season.
-- The Patriots threw away a 17-7 edge at Miami, as the Dolphins outscored New England, 26-3 in the final 32 minutes of a 33-20 loss at Sun Life Stadium. New England closed as 3 ½-point road favorites, as Bill Belichick's team lost its season opener for the first time since 2003.
Back (and front) door left open
-- The Raiders were totally outclassed by the Jets in Week 1, getting outgained 402-158. However, Oakland managed to cash as six-point road underdogs in a 19-14 defeat at New York thanks to a Derek Carr touchdown pass in the final two minutes.
-- So you think you were sharp by taking the Jaguars and 10 points. Things looked good for Jacksonville backers with a 17-0 halftime advantage, but Philadelphia scored the final 34 points of the game, capped off by a fumble return for a touchdown with 1:23 left to cover the double-digit line. Fair to say (after the fact) that taking the Eagles -7 ½ in the second half was probably the easiest second half bet of the week.
Bark like a dog
-- Nine underdogs cashed on Sunday afternoon, including four road teams that won outright. Cincinnati and Minnesota weren't that shocking, but how many people had Buffalo winning at Chicago? The Bills built a 17-7 halftime lead at Soldier Field as seven-point underdogs, but Chicago rallied to tie the game and force overtime. Following a Chicago punt on its first possession of overtime, Buffalo drove for the game-winning field goal to shock the Bears, 23-20.
-- The Titans opened as six-point underdogs at Kansas City, but that line moved all the way down to three at kickoff. Tennessee rolled at Arrowhead Stadium, 26-10, knocking off the defending AFC West champions by limiting Kansas City to 245 yards of offense. For the second straight season, the Titans won their season opener on the road in the underdog role, as Tennessee stunned Pittsburgh last season in Week 1.
Chase is on
-- For the bettors that lost with favorites in the 1:00 kickoffs, have no fear because the 49ers took care of the business in the dreaded "chase" game with a 28-17 victory at Dallas as 3 ½-point road favorites. The same can't be said for those who wanted to fade Carolina after news broke that Cam Newton was inactive. The Panthers played very well without their starting quarterback as Derek Anderson led Carolina to a 20-14 triumph at Tampa Bay as four-point 'dogs, while the two touchdowns by the Bucs came in the fourth quarter.
NFL Consensus Picks
September 8, 2014 »
Sides (ATS)
Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds
7:10 PM N.Y. Giants +4.5 1843 41.30% Detroit -4.5 2620 58.70% View View
10:20 PM San Diego +2.5 2342 53.29% Arizona -2.5 2053 46.71% View View
Totals (Over/Under)
Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds
10:20 PM San Diego 46 1601 53.44% Arizona 46 1395 46.56% View View
7:10 PM N.Y. Giants 45.5 2018 63.72% Detroit 45.5 1149 36.28% View View
September 8, 2014 »
Sides (ATS)
Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds
7:10 PM N.Y. Giants +4.5 1843 41.30% Detroit -4.5 2620 58.70% View View
10:20 PM San Diego +2.5 2342 53.29% Arizona -2.5 2053 46.71% View View
Totals (Over/Under)
Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds
10:20 PM San Diego 46 1601 53.44% Arizona 46 1395 46.56% View View
7:10 PM N.Y. Giants 45.5 2018 63.72% Detroit 45.5 1149 36.28% View View
Monday's Rated Games:
*****..........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
TRIPLE PLAYS................................0 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****.........................................2 - 2
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................5 - 2
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/08/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/07/14 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 19-*13-*0 59.38% +2350
*****..........................................1 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
TRIPLE PLAYS................................0 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****.........................................2 - 2
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................5 - 2
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
RATED AND OPINONS ON ALL GAMES
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/08/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/07/14 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 19-*13-*0 59.38% +2350
Seven Lessons - Week 1
September 9, 2014
Seattle Repeat?
We'll start at the top with the team at the top. How good can the Seattle Seahawks be? Seattle looked dominant in an opening game that was not an easy setup for them. The Seahawks were facing a talented, motivated opponent who had extra time to prepare for their defense and came in confident and mostly healthy. The result? Absolute domination by the Seahawks in every aspect of the game. Their defense looked every bit as good as the one that carried them to a Super Bowl victory last season, allowing just 255 total yards to a good Packers offense, limiting QB Rodgers to just 175 yards passing, giving up just 3.0 ypc, and surrendering only 16 points. In addition, the Seahawks harassed Rodgers all night long, forcing him to throw early or off his back foot more often than not. Rodgers threw ZERO pass attempts to CB Richard Sherman's side and essentially allowed the Seattle secondary to cut the field in half on passing downs. On offense, they looked in mid-season form and QB Russell Wilson seems to be improving. They found unique and multiple ways to get the ball in playmaker Percy Harvin's hands and the Packers defense had no answer for him when he was allowed to run in open space.
Someone better beat the Seahawks early (they do play San Diego and Denver the next two weeks) because, if not, they have a 7 game stretch after their bye in which they play just two playoff teams and get home games vs Dallas, Oakland, and the NY Giants (will be double-digit favorites). This Seattle secondary has a chance to be one of the best ever and their home dominance is now reaching epic proportions, 18-1 SU over the last 2-plus seasons with an average margin of victory of 16 points per game!!
More importantly, the entire franchise seems to be saying the right things and moving on from last season rather quickly. All the post-game interviews had Seattle players saying things like, "it's not about them, it's about us", "we just play our game", "last year was last year", if they keep that attitude……this year could be just like last year.
Matty Ice
Prior to the season, I made an effort to draft Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan in all of my fantasy leagues and I wound up getting him in every league without using a pick higher than the 7th round. Whether that says something about the quality of leagues I'm playing in or the general level of awareness about Ryan's talent I'm not sure, but regardless, I believe that Ryan's Week 1 results are not an aberration. Ryan, and the Falcons as a team, seem in line for a resurgence after a very disappointing 2013. Ryan was fantastic in the opening game of the 2014 campaign, throwing for 448 yards and 3 TD's against a Saints defense that was #2 against the pass last year. When WR's Roddy White and Julio Jones are healthy they are one of the best tandems in the league and Ryan did an excellent job of allowing them to use their big bodies to make catches.
Last season, with both of them hurt, Harry Douglas had to assume the role of #1 WR, that allowed him to gain valuable experience and confidence and he should be an excellent complementary receiver this year. The addition of Devin Hester makes this offense even more versatile. Hester should be used as an all-around athlete who gets touches in open space and the Falcons would be smart to utilize him in much the same way that the Seahawks use Percy Harvin. Hester had 5 catches for 99 yards but returned just 1 punt and had zero carries, expect both of those numbers to increase next week. Ryan faces a couple of quality defenses over the next two weeks (Cincinnati, Tampa Bay) but then gets a five-week stretch where he faces Minnesota, the N.Y. Giants, Chicago, and Detroit, all games in which he should be able to have a great deal of success. With a plethora of weapons at the WR position and an aging Steven Jackson in the backfield, the Falcons may become a passing team and Ryan's 43 pass attempts may become the norm.
Pass the Buck
With the focus on defensive holding and illegal contact, it's simply an acknowledgement of the passing league the NFL has become. However, it's always interesting to see just how much the tilt towards passing has effected a team’s ability to win and cover. For me, I consider 45 or more passing attempts in a game a "high" number. This year in Week 1 five QB's attempted 45+ passes in regulation, Nick Foles (45), Joe Flacco (62), Jay Cutler (46), Tom Brady (56), and Andrew Luck (53), those five QB's went 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Some would say, of course the teams that threw the ball more had poor SU and ATS records because teams that are behind throw the ball more. True, but Flacco, Cutler, and Brady work in offenses that are pass oriented and 45% of the total 262 pass attempts occurred in the 1st half, with both Brady and Foles actually attempting more 1st half passes. How do these Week 1 results compare to prior years?
QB Attempts
Year Statistics SU ATS
2014 5 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 1-4 2-3
2013 6 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 3-3 1-5
2012 5 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 2-3 0-5
2011 6 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 2-4 1-5
Overall Statistics SU ATS
2011-14 5.5 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 8-14 4-18
So, since 2011 when we started seeing an increase in the average betting totals for Week 1, we really haven't seen an increase in the number of games with a "high" number of pass attempts. However, those games have shown that throwing the ball an extreme number of times does not result in SU wins and renders you worthless ATS. Granted, this is a very small sample size but the results are interesting enough to warrant attention and could be useful in making 2nd half or in game wagers.
4) NFC L-EAST
How bad did the teams from the NFC EAST look over the opening weekend? NFC EAST teams went 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS with the only cover coming on a miracle defensive TD for the Eagles with under two minutes to play. Dallas and the New York Giants turned in two of the worst offensive performances of the week and the Redskins managed just six points. This certainly looks like Philadelphia's division for the taking as the Cowboys and Giants problems could be season long. Dallas has one of the worst defenses in the league and if QB Tony Romo plays the way he did in Week 1, the Cowboys will struggle to win games. The Giants have seemingly truly scuffled to adjust to their new West Coast passing scheme and after Manning completed just 48% of his passes in the preseason, he opened the regular season by going 18-of-33 for 163 yards and 2 INT's for a QBR of 27.8. Not to be outdone, Romo threw three INT's and garnered a QBR of 19.9. I've got to give credit to Philly head coach Chip Kelly, with his team trailing by 17 points at halftime and being shutout, he went into the locker room, made adjustments, and dominated the 2nd half 34-0. I'm still not a fan, but I must give credit where it is due. Now, I understand why Dallas owner Jerry Jones wanted to draft Johnny Manziel, the Cowboys are dangerously close to becoming irrelevant. Jones won't stand for that. My prediction, rookie DE Michael Sam will see the field for the Cowboys this season.
5) Quick Thoughts
When I can, I make an attempt to watch every NFL game. I usually hang out at one of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and take in as many games as possible while compiling some notes. I thought it might be fun to list some of those notes here, along with some post game observations.
"WOW, RGIII is getting hit a lot"
RGIII wound up getting hit a total of 14 times vs the Texans. Twice as many contacts as any other QB took in Week 1.
"San Fran knows they have Dallas completely outclassed, I've never seen an NFL team take their foot off the gas after THE 1st QUARTER!"
San Fran's 2nd half possessions = 0 yds, 37 yds, 17 yds, 40 yds, 10 yds and a total of ZERO points.
"Ravens throwing the ball too much. This didn't work in the opener last year either, RUN the ball"
2014 Week 1 - Flacco put up 62 pass attempts to lead the league, the Ravens had just 20 rushes. Baltimore losses SU and ATS.
2013 Week 1 - Flacco put up 62 pass attempts to lead the league, the Ravens had just 21 rushes. Baltimore losses SU and ATS.
"Dolphins might have themselves a nice little RB combo"
Knowshon Moreno, 24 carries 134 yards. Lamar Miller, 11 carries 59 yards.
"Cam Newton hurt, RB's look slow, defense looks just fine"
The Panthers defense didn't allow a point until midway through the 4th quarter while holding the primary Buccs RB's to 21 yds on 13 carries. They created 3 TO's and controlled the LOS.
"Please, no more Bud Light or Shock Top promotions in the sportsbook"
I'd like to watch the games without having to endure promo teams for macro-brews. Why can't Firestone Walker or 3 Floyds do a beer give away?
6) SuperContest
The Las Vegas SuperContest is turning into the sports betting version of the World Series of Poker. This year's entries reached an all-time high as 1,403 entry fees were accepted. With a cost of $1,500, the prize pool reached a new high and consists of over 2.1 million dollars in potential winnings. This year's winner will claim a 1st place prize of over 700K, more than double what the first place winner took home just four short years ago. Just as the WSOP exploded and saw a dramatic increase in participants and prize money, so has the SuperContest. The difference is, I don't see the interest in this contest waning anytime soon. Sportswagering is becoming more mainstream and the $1,500 entry fee is a price point that doesn't price too many potential customers out of the market. The potential is there for 2,000-plus entrants.
With that said, let's look at the Week 1 results. Out of 1,403 entrants only 23 (1.6%) managed to go 5-0. With underdogs going 11-5 ATS over the opening week, that makes sense, but I would have ventured with the number of sharp players in this contest a predominantly underdog weekend would have resulted in more 5-0 cards. On the flip side, 72 entrants (5.1%) managed to pick ZERO winners. An old mentor of mine once told me, "it's easier to find a loser and fade him than to find a winner and follow him", these results seem to make that cryptic advice ring true. It will most likely take 55 or 56 wins to take home the 1st place prize so those who went 0-5 in week #1 must now handicap at a 70% clip for the next 16 weeks to have a chance to win…….that's a tough road to hoe.
7) Dirty Rice
I'll keep this part short and sweet as many others over the next few weeks and days will have more to say and much more eloquently than I, but I will say this, that sound you hear may just be executives at NFL headquarters and the Baltimore Ravens front office shredding documents and deleting texts and emails. If you think that yesterday was the first time anyone had seen the Ray Rice elevator footage………well, ok. The Ravens and the NFL parting ways with Rice is not the end of this, Baltimore plays a national TV game vs. Pittsburgh this Thursday night and I'd be very surprised if everyone working for the Ravens front office is still employed by kickoff.
Handicapping the NFL, in many ways, is about analyzing data and then making predictions, here are some easy ones. Ray Rice has played his last NFL game and Roger Goodell has seen his last days as commissioner, there is a DA in Atlantic City who will be job hunting soon, and Thursday's Baltimore/Pittsburgh game will have little to do with football.
The NFL has a unique chance to gain some good from this via revised policies and increased awareness but not as long as any of the parties who were involved are still around. Usually during October, the NFL has its players wear pink for Breast Cancer Awareness Month this year they should have them wear purple to help bring even more awareness to the issue of domestic violence. If the Ravens were smart, they would petition to wear all purple uniforms for the month and donate Ray Rice's 2014 salary (3.5 million) to Safe Horizon, the National Coalition Against Domestic Violence, and the House of Ruth.
Aloha.
September 9, 2014
Seattle Repeat?
We'll start at the top with the team at the top. How good can the Seattle Seahawks be? Seattle looked dominant in an opening game that was not an easy setup for them. The Seahawks were facing a talented, motivated opponent who had extra time to prepare for their defense and came in confident and mostly healthy. The result? Absolute domination by the Seahawks in every aspect of the game. Their defense looked every bit as good as the one that carried them to a Super Bowl victory last season, allowing just 255 total yards to a good Packers offense, limiting QB Rodgers to just 175 yards passing, giving up just 3.0 ypc, and surrendering only 16 points. In addition, the Seahawks harassed Rodgers all night long, forcing him to throw early or off his back foot more often than not. Rodgers threw ZERO pass attempts to CB Richard Sherman's side and essentially allowed the Seattle secondary to cut the field in half on passing downs. On offense, they looked in mid-season form and QB Russell Wilson seems to be improving. They found unique and multiple ways to get the ball in playmaker Percy Harvin's hands and the Packers defense had no answer for him when he was allowed to run in open space.
Someone better beat the Seahawks early (they do play San Diego and Denver the next two weeks) because, if not, they have a 7 game stretch after their bye in which they play just two playoff teams and get home games vs Dallas, Oakland, and the NY Giants (will be double-digit favorites). This Seattle secondary has a chance to be one of the best ever and their home dominance is now reaching epic proportions, 18-1 SU over the last 2-plus seasons with an average margin of victory of 16 points per game!!
More importantly, the entire franchise seems to be saying the right things and moving on from last season rather quickly. All the post-game interviews had Seattle players saying things like, "it's not about them, it's about us", "we just play our game", "last year was last year", if they keep that attitude……this year could be just like last year.
Matty Ice
Prior to the season, I made an effort to draft Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan in all of my fantasy leagues and I wound up getting him in every league without using a pick higher than the 7th round. Whether that says something about the quality of leagues I'm playing in or the general level of awareness about Ryan's talent I'm not sure, but regardless, I believe that Ryan's Week 1 results are not an aberration. Ryan, and the Falcons as a team, seem in line for a resurgence after a very disappointing 2013. Ryan was fantastic in the opening game of the 2014 campaign, throwing for 448 yards and 3 TD's against a Saints defense that was #2 against the pass last year. When WR's Roddy White and Julio Jones are healthy they are one of the best tandems in the league and Ryan did an excellent job of allowing them to use their big bodies to make catches.
Last season, with both of them hurt, Harry Douglas had to assume the role of #1 WR, that allowed him to gain valuable experience and confidence and he should be an excellent complementary receiver this year. The addition of Devin Hester makes this offense even more versatile. Hester should be used as an all-around athlete who gets touches in open space and the Falcons would be smart to utilize him in much the same way that the Seahawks use Percy Harvin. Hester had 5 catches for 99 yards but returned just 1 punt and had zero carries, expect both of those numbers to increase next week. Ryan faces a couple of quality defenses over the next two weeks (Cincinnati, Tampa Bay) but then gets a five-week stretch where he faces Minnesota, the N.Y. Giants, Chicago, and Detroit, all games in which he should be able to have a great deal of success. With a plethora of weapons at the WR position and an aging Steven Jackson in the backfield, the Falcons may become a passing team and Ryan's 43 pass attempts may become the norm.
Pass the Buck
With the focus on defensive holding and illegal contact, it's simply an acknowledgement of the passing league the NFL has become. However, it's always interesting to see just how much the tilt towards passing has effected a team’s ability to win and cover. For me, I consider 45 or more passing attempts in a game a "high" number. This year in Week 1 five QB's attempted 45+ passes in regulation, Nick Foles (45), Joe Flacco (62), Jay Cutler (46), Tom Brady (56), and Andrew Luck (53), those five QB's went 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Some would say, of course the teams that threw the ball more had poor SU and ATS records because teams that are behind throw the ball more. True, but Flacco, Cutler, and Brady work in offenses that are pass oriented and 45% of the total 262 pass attempts occurred in the 1st half, with both Brady and Foles actually attempting more 1st half passes. How do these Week 1 results compare to prior years?
QB Attempts
Year Statistics SU ATS
2014 5 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 1-4 2-3
2013 6 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 3-3 1-5
2012 5 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 2-3 0-5
2011 6 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 2-4 1-5
Overall Statistics SU ATS
2011-14 5.5 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 8-14 4-18
So, since 2011 when we started seeing an increase in the average betting totals for Week 1, we really haven't seen an increase in the number of games with a "high" number of pass attempts. However, those games have shown that throwing the ball an extreme number of times does not result in SU wins and renders you worthless ATS. Granted, this is a very small sample size but the results are interesting enough to warrant attention and could be useful in making 2nd half or in game wagers.
4) NFC L-EAST
How bad did the teams from the NFC EAST look over the opening weekend? NFC EAST teams went 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS with the only cover coming on a miracle defensive TD for the Eagles with under two minutes to play. Dallas and the New York Giants turned in two of the worst offensive performances of the week and the Redskins managed just six points. This certainly looks like Philadelphia's division for the taking as the Cowboys and Giants problems could be season long. Dallas has one of the worst defenses in the league and if QB Tony Romo plays the way he did in Week 1, the Cowboys will struggle to win games. The Giants have seemingly truly scuffled to adjust to their new West Coast passing scheme and after Manning completed just 48% of his passes in the preseason, he opened the regular season by going 18-of-33 for 163 yards and 2 INT's for a QBR of 27.8. Not to be outdone, Romo threw three INT's and garnered a QBR of 19.9. I've got to give credit to Philly head coach Chip Kelly, with his team trailing by 17 points at halftime and being shutout, he went into the locker room, made adjustments, and dominated the 2nd half 34-0. I'm still not a fan, but I must give credit where it is due. Now, I understand why Dallas owner Jerry Jones wanted to draft Johnny Manziel, the Cowboys are dangerously close to becoming irrelevant. Jones won't stand for that. My prediction, rookie DE Michael Sam will see the field for the Cowboys this season.
5) Quick Thoughts
When I can, I make an attempt to watch every NFL game. I usually hang out at one of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and take in as many games as possible while compiling some notes. I thought it might be fun to list some of those notes here, along with some post game observations.
"WOW, RGIII is getting hit a lot"
RGIII wound up getting hit a total of 14 times vs the Texans. Twice as many contacts as any other QB took in Week 1.
"San Fran knows they have Dallas completely outclassed, I've never seen an NFL team take their foot off the gas after THE 1st QUARTER!"
San Fran's 2nd half possessions = 0 yds, 37 yds, 17 yds, 40 yds, 10 yds and a total of ZERO points.
"Ravens throwing the ball too much. This didn't work in the opener last year either, RUN the ball"
2014 Week 1 - Flacco put up 62 pass attempts to lead the league, the Ravens had just 20 rushes. Baltimore losses SU and ATS.
2013 Week 1 - Flacco put up 62 pass attempts to lead the league, the Ravens had just 21 rushes. Baltimore losses SU and ATS.
"Dolphins might have themselves a nice little RB combo"
Knowshon Moreno, 24 carries 134 yards. Lamar Miller, 11 carries 59 yards.
"Cam Newton hurt, RB's look slow, defense looks just fine"
The Panthers defense didn't allow a point until midway through the 4th quarter while holding the primary Buccs RB's to 21 yds on 13 carries. They created 3 TO's and controlled the LOS.
"Please, no more Bud Light or Shock Top promotions in the sportsbook"
I'd like to watch the games without having to endure promo teams for macro-brews. Why can't Firestone Walker or 3 Floyds do a beer give away?
6) SuperContest
The Las Vegas SuperContest is turning into the sports betting version of the World Series of Poker. This year's entries reached an all-time high as 1,403 entry fees were accepted. With a cost of $1,500, the prize pool reached a new high and consists of over 2.1 million dollars in potential winnings. This year's winner will claim a 1st place prize of over 700K, more than double what the first place winner took home just four short years ago. Just as the WSOP exploded and saw a dramatic increase in participants and prize money, so has the SuperContest. The difference is, I don't see the interest in this contest waning anytime soon. Sportswagering is becoming more mainstream and the $1,500 entry fee is a price point that doesn't price too many potential customers out of the market. The potential is there for 2,000-plus entrants.
With that said, let's look at the Week 1 results. Out of 1,403 entrants only 23 (1.6%) managed to go 5-0. With underdogs going 11-5 ATS over the opening week, that makes sense, but I would have ventured with the number of sharp players in this contest a predominantly underdog weekend would have resulted in more 5-0 cards. On the flip side, 72 entrants (5.1%) managed to pick ZERO winners. An old mentor of mine once told me, "it's easier to find a loser and fade him than to find a winner and follow him", these results seem to make that cryptic advice ring true. It will most likely take 55 or 56 wins to take home the 1st place prize so those who went 0-5 in week #1 must now handicap at a 70% clip for the next 16 weeks to have a chance to win…….that's a tough road to hoe.
7) Dirty Rice
I'll keep this part short and sweet as many others over the next few weeks and days will have more to say and much more eloquently than I, but I will say this, that sound you hear may just be executives at NFL headquarters and the Baltimore Ravens front office shredding documents and deleting texts and emails. If you think that yesterday was the first time anyone had seen the Ray Rice elevator footage………well, ok. The Ravens and the NFL parting ways with Rice is not the end of this, Baltimore plays a national TV game vs. Pittsburgh this Thursday night and I'd be very surprised if everyone working for the Ravens front office is still employed by kickoff.
Handicapping the NFL, in many ways, is about analyzing data and then making predictions, here are some easy ones. Ray Rice has played his last NFL game and Roger Goodell has seen his last days as commissioner, there is a DA in Atlantic City who will be job hunting soon, and Thursday's Baltimore/Pittsburgh game will have little to do with football.
The NFL has a unique chance to gain some good from this via revised policies and increased awareness but not as long as any of the parties who were involved are still around. Usually during October, the NFL has its players wear pink for Breast Cancer Awareness Month this year they should have them wear purple to help bring even more awareness to the issue of domestic violence. If the Ravens were smart, they would petition to wear all purple uniforms for the month and donate Ray Rice's 2014 salary (3.5 million) to Safe Horizon, the National Coalition Against Domestic Violence, and the House of Ruth.
Aloha.
