NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 2
Lions (1-0) @ Panthers (1-0)-- Newton is expected back at QB after Anderson won season opener last week. Carolina is 2-8 in last ten home openers, 4-12-1 vs spread in last 17; they're 9-4-1 as home favorites under Rivera. Panthers won four of six series games, three of four here. Since 1990, Detroit is 1-8 vs spread in road openers that weren't in Week 1. Both teams opened with wins; Lions are on a short week after outgaining Giants 417-197 Monday night. Of 29 plays of 20+ yards last week that came on 3rd down, Detroit had four of them. Johnson had 164 receiving yards with two TDs. Lions were 11-15-2 as road underdog under Schwartz; they're 3-10 in last 13 road openers.
Jaguars (0-1) @ Redskins (0-1)--- Jaguars led 17-0 at half in Philly last week, with TD drives of 44-21 yards after Eagle turnovers, but they couldn't even cover as an 11-point dog. Jags are 4-5 as road dogs under Bradley, 4-16 in last 20 games against NFC teams. Since '11, they're 8-23-1 as single digit underdogs. Since '88, Redskins are 1-7 vs spread in home openers that weren't in Week 1; Washington won four of five games vs Jags, winning last two in OT; Jax is 0-2 here, but last visit was in '06. Skins scored first on 46-yard drive in Houston last week, but PAT was blocked and they didn't score again; since '06, they're 9-19-1 as home favorites. Washington lost its last two home openers, allowing 71 points.
Cowboys (0-1) @ Titans (1-0)-- Tennessee was bet down from 100-1 to 60-1 to win Super Bowl after 26-10 win at Arrowhead last week, when they outgained KC by 160 yards. Titans won three of last four home openers, but are 3-6-1 vs spread in last 10 HOs when favored. Cowboys are 13-8 as road underdogs, 10-6 vs AFC under Garrett; they're 6-1 in last seven road openers, with dogs covering last four- they split two visits to Nashville. Romo threw three 1st half picks in 28-17 home loss to 49ers last week; Niners had defensive TD and a 2-yard TD drive. Last nine years, Titans are 24-12-1 vs spread vs NFC teams- they're 8-11-1 in last 20 games as a home favorite.
Cardinals (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)-- Arizona covered its last six road openers, going 4-2 SU; they pulled out 18-17 home win late Monday night, are 10-5-1 vs spread on road last two years. Redbirds were 6-1 vs number LY in games with spread of 3 or less points- they're 10-4-1 vs spread in last 15 non-divisional road games. Giants are 7-3 in last ten series games, but Arizona won last visit here, in '09. Big Blue got outgained 417-197 in Detroit Monday night; they lost last two home openers. Over is 8-0-1 in Week 2 Giant games the last nine years. Over last eight years, Giants are 16-23-1 vs spread at home. Arizona is 12-9-1 vs spread in game following its last 22 wins. Giants are still struggling with new offense; will home crowd help them?
Patriots (0-1) @ Vikings (1-0)-- Over last decade, New England is 25-9 vs spread in game following a loss; they're 5-7 in games vs NFC teams last three years. Pats got shut out 23-0 in second half of 33-20 loss in Miami last week; thery won last three series games, by 7-24-10 points; they've split four visits here. Vikings were 0-6 vs spread in last six Metrodome openers, with all games decided by 4 or less points; they're playing outdoors for two years, as new stadium is built. Vikes won opener 34-6 last week, running for 186 yards as WR Patterson proves to be threat running, catching ball. Remember that Viking QB Cassel was Brady's backup from 2005-08, playing whole season in '08 after Brady got hurt early in opener. Peterson will not play in this game due to his legal problems in Texas. Spread doubled as a result.
Dolphins (1-0) @ Bills (1-0)—Buffalo won three of last four series games, winning 19-14/19-0 in last two played here; Miami lost seven of last nine visits here overall. Dolphins outscored Pats 23-0 in second half of impressive 33-20 home win last week; their two takeaways created short fields that saw Fish score on TD drives of 15-34 yards. Miami lost eight of last ten road openers (2-6-1 vs spread in last nine). 10 of their last 12 road openers stayed under the total. Bills won four of last six home openers, are 8-6 vs spread in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points. Buffalo covered five of last six divisional home games; they covered six of eight at home in Marrone’s first year as HC.
Saints (0-1) @ Browns (0-1)—New Orleans continues to struggle on road; they failed to cover last five tries as road favorite, are 8-9 vs spread in last 17 games on grass, but they covered 17 of last 23 vs AFC teams, are 14-6 in last 20 games that followed a loss. Cleveland rallied back from down 27-3 at half last week, lost at gun to Steelers, but they had good balance on offense, running for 183 yards, passing for 206. Browns are 6-4 vs spread in last ten games as a home underdog- they won three of last four games with Saints, with visitor winning all four- they’re 12-17-3 vs spread vs NFC teams since ’06. Saints gave up 568 yards in Atlanta last week, but this opponent ain’t the Falcons.
Falcons (1-0) @ Bengals (1-0)— Both teams off divisional wins last week. Cincinnati was 6-0 as home favorite LY, after being 13-27-2 the nine years before that; they hadn’t scored a TD last week until 77-yard bomb to Green with 4:58 left that saved them in Baltimore, after they blew 15-0 halftime lead. Bengals are 16-6-2 vs spread in last 24 games vs NFC teams, 22-10 in game following last 32 wins. Falcons won last three series games by 27-2-7 points, with three of last four series totals 56+. Atlanta lost four of six visits here, but haven’t been here since ’06. Falcons are 15-9 vs spread in AFC games under Smith; they’re 21-16-1 vs spread in game after wins the last four years.
Rams (0-1) @ Bucs (0-1)—Tampa Bay didn’t force turnover last week, losing 20-14 to Carolina backup QB Anderson; now Rams visit with backup Hill under center, after they got crushed 34-6 at home by Minnesota. St Louis lost its last 12 road openers; they’re 2-12 vs spread in last 14 road openers, but beat Bucs 28-13/23-13 last two years, with ’12 win here its first in last six visits to Tampa. Rams are 9-7 as road dogs under Fisher, 5-4 in non-division games. Bucs are 7-10-1 as home favorites last four years; Smith was 12-19-1 as home fave his last six years in Chicago. Rams’ DE Chris Long is out two months; he’ll miss first games of his NFL career during that time. Bucs are 11-20 vs spread in game following their last 31 losses.
Seahawks (1-0) @ Chargers (0-1)—Bolts frittered away game in Arizona late Monday night, losing two fumbles and botching shotgun snap that took them out of FG range at key time late in game; they ran ball for only 52 yards, lost C Hardwick to injury (check status). Defending champ Seattle waxed Packers in home opener four nights earlier; they won six of last seven series games, with seven of last nine meetings decided by 3 or less points- they won last three visits here, but last one was in 2002. Seahawks are just 6-6 as road favorites under Carroll, but 5-2 in non-divisional games. San Diego won three of last four home openers, scoring 24+ points in last six; nine of their last 11 home openers went over total.
Houston (1-0) @ Oakland (0-1)-- Raiders' rookie QB Carr plays against team his brother once played for; his backup Schaub was Houston's QB this time last year. Texans were 0-3 as road favorites LY, after being 8-4-1 the three years before that; they blocked punt for TD last week, in game where Redskins outgained them by 56 yards. Oakland had only 25 rushing yards, was 3-12 on 3rd down in 19-14 loss at Swamp Stadium; not lot of NFL teams lose with +2 turnover ratio. Houston won three of four visits here; home team lost five of last seven series games. Oakland is 3-7 as home underdog under Allen, 2-8 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Houston won its last five road openers.
Jets (0-1) @ Packers (1-0)-- Green Bay drew short straw, having to play in Seattle last week; their reward was extra three days off after, but they lost RT for year, and their center is new player. Jets are 8-3 in seldom-played series, scoring total of 17 points in three losses- they are 11-14-1 as road dogs under Ryan, lost last three road openers by 10-17-3 points, but covered 12 of last 17, with five of last seven staying under. Pack is 21-11 in last 32 games as home favorite; they won six of last seven home openers, scoring 34 ppg in last four; they're 4-2 in last six home openers that weren't in Week 1. Since '09, Green Bay is 15-8 vs spread in game afetr a loss- they play all three division rivals the next three weeks.
Chiefs (0-1) @ Broncos (1-0)-- Thought #18 missed Welker last week, especially in second half, when they needed first downs to kill clock. Welker apparently will not play, since new drug agreement wasn't signed on time. KC was -3 in turnovers in dismal loss to Tennessee in home opener, after being +18 LY, -24 in '12; they lost two players to Achilles injuries, are banged up on OL- they ran ball for only 67 yards last week. Over last decade, Chiefs are 15-5 as double digit dog 12-7 as divisional road dogs since '07. Denver won last four games by average score of 29-14, winning 38-13/27-17 in last two played here. Broncos are 20-11-1 in game after a win, under Fox- they're 12-4 in last 16 games as a home favorite.
Bears (0-1) @ 49ers (1-0)-- Chicago lost home opener to Bills in OT last week, bad loss; they lost last seven visits to Candlestick, with Chicago's last win here in Super Bowl year ('85), but this is first game in new stadium for 49ers, who led 28-3 at half last week in Dallas and coasted home. Besrs are 4-5 in last nine road openers; 10 of their last 13 stayed under total- they're 4-10-1 in last 15 games as road dog, 7-12-2 in game following last 21 losses. 49ers are 15-6-1 as home favorite under Harbaugh, 10-4 in non-division games- they're 20-11-2 in game after last 33 wins. Bears were outrushed 193-86 by Buffalo last week, passed for 341 yards, but only two plays of 20+ yards, while allowing six.
Eagles (1-0) @ Colts (0-1)-- Underdogs are 8-2 vs spread in Colts' non-divisonal home games under Pagano (5-5 as home favorite); Indy is 9-0-1 vs spread in game following a loss the last two years. Philly was down 17-0 at half to Jags last week, but stopped turning ball over and won/covered 34-17, getting defensive TD in last 2:00. Since '07, Iggles are 19-7 as road underdogs. Colts won four of last five series games; this is Philly's first visit here since '06. Eagles won last five road openers, scored 31+ points in five of last six- they're 9-4 as underdogs in road openers. Colts won eight of last 11 home openers, but covered one of last four as favorite in HO's; they covered five of last six Week 2 home openers.
