Vegas Line Moves - Week 1
September 4, 2014
The 2014 NFL season is finally upon us, kicking off with the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks hosting the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night and including several more intriguing matchups that will definitely have the attention of bettors in Week 1. Two Las Vegas sportsbooks located within a few blocks of each other took much different approaches regarding when they started booking the season-opening games.
Jay Kornegay, the Vice President of Race & Sports Operations at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (formerly LVH and Hilton), began taking action on Week 1 games back on Apr. 23 before even the NFL Draft took place. This has led to some major line moves over the past few months, particularly on two NFC South divisional matchups.
The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons have both gone from favorites to underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints, respectively. The Buccaneers (-2) and Saints (-3) emerged as popular teams on the NFL futures market, and in turn gained a lot of support from the betting public, who have backed them heavily in their season openers.
“We opened (Carolina) 2.5,” Kornegay said. “But we had discussions at that time back in April. Tampa Bay was kind of the wiseguy team because their offseason changes probably changed their power ranking more than any others. It wasn’t like grabbing headlines because they’re not contenders. But for betting purposes, the Buccaneers back in April and May were the sexy pick to do better than what last year’s team did based on their defensive free-agent signings, Lovie Smith and of course (Josh) McCown.
“I think they warranted that recognition back then, and I think from that point on they’ve stayed about the same. And Carolina’s power ranking has kind of gone sideways because of some of the injuries and poor performances on the offensive side of the ball. I can’t see Carolina receiving a lot of attention. The more you look at Tampa Bay – (Doug) Martin’s looking pretty good – you’d think that they would have to favor the Buccaneers a little bit in that game.”
Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, did not book Week 1 NFL games that early, instead choosing to wait until the final preseason games were over. Avello said his decision helps protect The Wynn from incurring any unnecessary risk with too many unknowns involved.
“I just put these up last Thursday – I don’t put these up way ahead of time,” Avello said. “I don’t believe in it. Because to me, you get limited action and you’re too open for exposure. There’s guys still trying to make the team, coaches trying new stuff, players getting hurt. I never put them up two months ahead of time, always after the last preseason games.”
Avello tends to agree with Kornegay on the Bucs and understands why bettors are wagering on them. But he also said he could see late money coming in on the Panthers and the result going either way.
“I guess Carolina was on no one’s team to achieve list this year because of all the hits they took,” Avello said. “That being said, they’re still going to be ok. They did lose at Tampa Bay last year. Tampa Bay’s supposed to be a better team. Certainly, McCown down there is supposed to make them a better team at quarterback. It’s a tough call. I could see either side being a small favorite.”
The other NFC South team garnering a significant amount of betting interest is the Saints, who opened at 15/1 to win the Super Bowl at the SuperBook and are now 7/1. Kornegay said the combination of New Orleans improving from last year and Atlanta just trying to get healthy has been a big factor. Plus, the loss of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez to retirement hurts the Falcons as well.
“We opened the Falcons -2,” Kornegay said. “Atlanta’s pretty much in neutral right now. They have some questionable starters injury-wise. And even their healthy guys have question marks about them. Julio Jones is a great receiver and everything, but is his foot ok? When Atlanta had their heyday and that pretty good run, they also had Tony Gonzalez, who was catching everything. He was playing like a Hall of Famer until the very end.
“I can understand why New Orleans is getting some play. I think they were at the top of the second tier, and then everybody dissected their schedule a little bit more. A lot of those teams on their schedule started to look like they had some issues. So it was not all about the Saints looking great. It’s also question marks surrounding two of their main competitors for that division title in Carolina and Atlanta.”
The biggest late game on Sunday takes place in Dallas when the Cowboys host the San Francisco 49ers, who some bookmakers seem to be down on lately but bettors are still backing despite an underwhelming performance in the preseason. The SuperBook opened the 49ers at -3.5, and they have been bet up as high as -5.5 around Vegas.
“The 49ers have got a lot of question marks,” Kornegay said. “I think they have good coaching there, good leadership there. And I expect them to turn it around. I don’t think they’re going to perform as poorly as they did in the preseason. I think the Cowboys are a nice cure for that. Dallas looks like a slumpbuster to me.”
Meanwhile, at The Wynn, Avello opened San Francisco -6.5, but bettors there have pushed the number down to -5. He is one of the bookmakers who does not believe in the 49ers right now.
“Certainly some early money there for the Cowboys, some early moneyline for the Cowboys,” he said. “San Francisco, I wouldn’t call them world beaters right now to open up the season. They haven’t looked that good in preseason. I watched Kaepernick throw the ball a few times, he didn’t look that good.”
One of the earlier games Avello said to keep an eye on is an AFC North battle between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh opened -5 at the SuperBook and -6.5 at The Wynn, showing the disparity between how the Browns were viewed a few months ago to how they appear now. In addition, the status of Steelers running backs Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount is up in the air due to possible suspensions following marijuana possession charges and could impact the point spread.
“I don’t think anybody’s expectations were that high on that Cleveland team,” Avello said. “Everybody thought maybe (Johnny) Manziel would get to start after a few weeks. That game will go to 7 though.
“Pittsburgh’s got the running back situation where there’s two guys, and nobody knows if they’re going to play or not play. So there’s a lot of indecisiveness there, but I think if that squares up, then you’re going to see Steelers go to a touchdown.”
Finally, arguably the biggest game in Week 1 will take place on Sunday night in Denver when the Colts visit the Broncos. Both Kornegay and Avello agreed this matchup has enormous potential from a ratings and betting perspective, although there has just been a small amount of early money coming in on Denver, moving the line slightly from -7 to -7.5 at most sportsbooks.
“That Indianapolis-Denver game is a little frustrating,” Kornegay said. “It’s always difficult when you have one of those marquee teams playing on Sunday night or Monday night. One of the great breaks that we have this year is that we don’t have a marquee team playing on Monday night. It’s nice to see that. I think that’s just pure luck, the way that the schedule came out.”
“The Broncos-Colts game is going to be a big betting game,” Avello said. “It’s a tough call. I think there’s going to be a lot of money on the game itself. I don’t know what side people will end up on. (But) I think it will be a heavily bet game.”
Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 1 Moves
Rotation Team Open Current Move
461 PACKERS - - -
462 SEAHAWKS 5 5.5 0.5
463 SAINTS - 3 -
464 FALCONS 2 - -5
465 VIKINGS - - -
466 RAMS 5 3.5 -1.5
467 BROWNS - - -
468 STEELERS 5 6.5 1.5
469 JAGUARS - - -
470 EAGLES 11 10.5 -0.5
471 RAIDERS - - -
472 JETS 4.5 5.5 1
473 BENGALS - - -
474 RAVENS 2.5 2 -0.5
475 BILLS - - -
476 BEARS 6.5 7 0.5
477 REDSKINS - - -
478 TEXANS 2.5 3 0.5
479 TITANS - - -
480 CHIEFS 5.5 3.5 -2
481 PATRIOTS 3.5 5 1.5
482 DOLPHINS - - -
483 PANTHERS 2.5 - -4.5
484 BUCS - 2 -
485 49ERS 3.5 5 1.5
486 COWBOYS - - -
487 COLTS - - -
488 BRONCOS 7 7.5 0.5
489 GIANTS - - -
490 LIONS 4 6 2
491 CHARGERS - - -
492 CARDINALS 3.5 3 -0.5
Updates provided by bettingmoves.com
September 4, 2014
The 2014 NFL season is finally upon us, kicking off with the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks hosting the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night and including several more intriguing matchups that will definitely have the attention of bettors in Week 1. Two Las Vegas sportsbooks located within a few blocks of each other took much different approaches regarding when they started booking the season-opening games.
Jay Kornegay, the Vice President of Race & Sports Operations at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (formerly LVH and Hilton), began taking action on Week 1 games back on Apr. 23 before even the NFL Draft took place. This has led to some major line moves over the past few months, particularly on two NFC South divisional matchups.
The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons have both gone from favorites to underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints, respectively. The Buccaneers (-2) and Saints (-3) emerged as popular teams on the NFL futures market, and in turn gained a lot of support from the betting public, who have backed them heavily in their season openers.
“We opened (Carolina) 2.5,” Kornegay said. “But we had discussions at that time back in April. Tampa Bay was kind of the wiseguy team because their offseason changes probably changed their power ranking more than any others. It wasn’t like grabbing headlines because they’re not contenders. But for betting purposes, the Buccaneers back in April and May were the sexy pick to do better than what last year’s team did based on their defensive free-agent signings, Lovie Smith and of course (Josh) McCown.
“I think they warranted that recognition back then, and I think from that point on they’ve stayed about the same. And Carolina’s power ranking has kind of gone sideways because of some of the injuries and poor performances on the offensive side of the ball. I can’t see Carolina receiving a lot of attention. The more you look at Tampa Bay – (Doug) Martin’s looking pretty good – you’d think that they would have to favor the Buccaneers a little bit in that game.”
Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, did not book Week 1 NFL games that early, instead choosing to wait until the final preseason games were over. Avello said his decision helps protect The Wynn from incurring any unnecessary risk with too many unknowns involved.
“I just put these up last Thursday – I don’t put these up way ahead of time,” Avello said. “I don’t believe in it. Because to me, you get limited action and you’re too open for exposure. There’s guys still trying to make the team, coaches trying new stuff, players getting hurt. I never put them up two months ahead of time, always after the last preseason games.”
Avello tends to agree with Kornegay on the Bucs and understands why bettors are wagering on them. But he also said he could see late money coming in on the Panthers and the result going either way.
“I guess Carolina was on no one’s team to achieve list this year because of all the hits they took,” Avello said. “That being said, they’re still going to be ok. They did lose at Tampa Bay last year. Tampa Bay’s supposed to be a better team. Certainly, McCown down there is supposed to make them a better team at quarterback. It’s a tough call. I could see either side being a small favorite.”
The other NFC South team garnering a significant amount of betting interest is the Saints, who opened at 15/1 to win the Super Bowl at the SuperBook and are now 7/1. Kornegay said the combination of New Orleans improving from last year and Atlanta just trying to get healthy has been a big factor. Plus, the loss of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez to retirement hurts the Falcons as well.
“We opened the Falcons -2,” Kornegay said. “Atlanta’s pretty much in neutral right now. They have some questionable starters injury-wise. And even their healthy guys have question marks about them. Julio Jones is a great receiver and everything, but is his foot ok? When Atlanta had their heyday and that pretty good run, they also had Tony Gonzalez, who was catching everything. He was playing like a Hall of Famer until the very end.
“I can understand why New Orleans is getting some play. I think they were at the top of the second tier, and then everybody dissected their schedule a little bit more. A lot of those teams on their schedule started to look like they had some issues. So it was not all about the Saints looking great. It’s also question marks surrounding two of their main competitors for that division title in Carolina and Atlanta.”
The biggest late game on Sunday takes place in Dallas when the Cowboys host the San Francisco 49ers, who some bookmakers seem to be down on lately but bettors are still backing despite an underwhelming performance in the preseason. The SuperBook opened the 49ers at -3.5, and they have been bet up as high as -5.5 around Vegas.
“The 49ers have got a lot of question marks,” Kornegay said. “I think they have good coaching there, good leadership there. And I expect them to turn it around. I don’t think they’re going to perform as poorly as they did in the preseason. I think the Cowboys are a nice cure for that. Dallas looks like a slumpbuster to me.”
Meanwhile, at The Wynn, Avello opened San Francisco -6.5, but bettors there have pushed the number down to -5. He is one of the bookmakers who does not believe in the 49ers right now.
“Certainly some early money there for the Cowboys, some early moneyline for the Cowboys,” he said. “San Francisco, I wouldn’t call them world beaters right now to open up the season. They haven’t looked that good in preseason. I watched Kaepernick throw the ball a few times, he didn’t look that good.”
One of the earlier games Avello said to keep an eye on is an AFC North battle between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh opened -5 at the SuperBook and -6.5 at The Wynn, showing the disparity between how the Browns were viewed a few months ago to how they appear now. In addition, the status of Steelers running backs Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount is up in the air due to possible suspensions following marijuana possession charges and could impact the point spread.
“I don’t think anybody’s expectations were that high on that Cleveland team,” Avello said. “Everybody thought maybe (Johnny) Manziel would get to start after a few weeks. That game will go to 7 though.
“Pittsburgh’s got the running back situation where there’s two guys, and nobody knows if they’re going to play or not play. So there’s a lot of indecisiveness there, but I think if that squares up, then you’re going to see Steelers go to a touchdown.”
Finally, arguably the biggest game in Week 1 will take place on Sunday night in Denver when the Colts visit the Broncos. Both Kornegay and Avello agreed this matchup has enormous potential from a ratings and betting perspective, although there has just been a small amount of early money coming in on Denver, moving the line slightly from -7 to -7.5 at most sportsbooks.
“That Indianapolis-Denver game is a little frustrating,” Kornegay said. “It’s always difficult when you have one of those marquee teams playing on Sunday night or Monday night. One of the great breaks that we have this year is that we don’t have a marquee team playing on Monday night. It’s nice to see that. I think that’s just pure luck, the way that the schedule came out.”
“The Broncos-Colts game is going to be a big betting game,” Avello said. “It’s a tough call. I think there’s going to be a lot of money on the game itself. I don’t know what side people will end up on. (But) I think it will be a heavily bet game.”
Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 1 Moves
Rotation Team Open Current Move
461 PACKERS - - -
462 SEAHAWKS 5 5.5 0.5
463 SAINTS - 3 -
464 FALCONS 2 - -5
465 VIKINGS - - -
466 RAMS 5 3.5 -1.5
467 BROWNS - - -
468 STEELERS 5 6.5 1.5
469 JAGUARS - - -
470 EAGLES 11 10.5 -0.5
471 RAIDERS - - -
472 JETS 4.5 5.5 1
473 BENGALS - - -
474 RAVENS 2.5 2 -0.5
475 BILLS - - -
476 BEARS 6.5 7 0.5
477 REDSKINS - - -
478 TEXANS 2.5 3 0.5
479 TITANS - - -
480 CHIEFS 5.5 3.5 -2
481 PATRIOTS 3.5 5 1.5
482 DOLPHINS - - -
483 PANTHERS 2.5 - -4.5
484 BUCS - 2 -
485 49ERS 3.5 5 1.5
486 COWBOYS - - -
487 COLTS - - -
488 BRONCOS 7 7.5 0.5
489 GIANTS - - -
490 LIONS 4 6 2
491 CHARGERS - - -
492 CARDINALS 3.5 3 -0.5
Updates provided by bettingmoves.com
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****........................................0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................1 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................0 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0
OVERALL OPINION AND RATED GAMES:
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50
*****........................................0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................1 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................0 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0
OVERALL OPINION AND RATED GAMES:
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50
Armadillo: Friday's six-pack
NFL trends to ponder for Week 1 (all records are ATS):
-- Patriots are 18-8-2 as divisional road favorites.
-- Bengals covered once in last seven divisional road games.
-- Jets covered six of their last eight home games.
-- Chiefs are 2-10 in last dozen games as home favorite.
-- 49ers covered eight of last nine as road favorites.
-- Arizona is 11-2-1 in last 14 non-divisional games.
**********
Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend......
13) There are three home underdogs in the NFL this weekend: Falcons-Dolphins-Cowboys. Which one has the best chance of winning? I’d say Atlanta, based on Siants’ struggles away from the Superdome in recent years.
12) Michigan State-Oregon is a statement game for conference supremacy, which is more important now, with the 4-team playoff looming for the first time. Spartans have had a very good defense recently; it gets a huge test this week in Eugene.
11) Buccaneers (4-12 last year) are 2-point favorites over Carolina (12-4 last year); was Lovie Smith that much of an upgrade over Greg Schiano, the last Tampa coach? (yes) Bucs' defense will force more turnovers under Lovie Smith.
10) Stanford-USC is Steve Sarkisian’s first Pac-12 game with the Trojans, as both teams step way up in class after dismantling inferior opponents last week. Cardinal has won five of last seven series games.
9) Since 1990, only 25% of NFL teams who lost their opener made it to the playoffs; keep that in mind while your favorite team plays Sunday.
8) Notre Dame-Michigan are playing for the last time in the foreseeable future, as Irish will be playing more ACC teams as payment for that league letting Notre Dame play basketball in the ACC, thereby siphoning off some of their NCAA tournament money. One thing about Notre Dame, they make a lot of money.
7) Giants were 5-0 this preseason, but no one thought they played well- their subs pulled some games out at the end and they won ‘em all this summer. Now comes the opener in Detroit; Lions have better talent, but Coughlin vs Caldwell is an epic coaching mismatch.
6) BYU ran the football for 550 yards in a 41-20 dismantling of Texas last year. 550 yards. You think the Texas conditioning coach mentioned that once or twice during conditioning drills this winter? 5) Oakland’s Derek Carr is the only rookie QB starting this week, while Jets start 2nd-year QB Geno Smith. Big difference between playing for Fresno State and starting in the NFL, but Carr beat out Matt Schaub—we’ll see how he does.
4) Texas A&M’s offense treated South Carolina like a piñata last week, scoring 52 points in Columbia; how do the Gamecocks bounce back as a double digit favorite over an East Carolina squad with experienced QB Shane Carden running the show? Pirates have historically played their BCS opponents pretty tough.
3) How much will Peyton Manning miss Wes Welker and which Bronco will step up and make the plays Welker would’ve?
2) Oakland A’s need to right their ship this weekend against Houston; 23 games left, they need to play pretty good ball to make the playoffs. A’s were terrific for four months, then dreadful in August; September needs to be a better month.
1) How will Shaun Hill do against Minnesota, in his first NFL start since 2010? He has a 13-13 record as an NFL starter. Will the Rams be improved? How will Matt Cassel do in Norv Turner’s offense?
NFL trends to ponder for Week 1 (all records are ATS):
-- Patriots are 18-8-2 as divisional road favorites.
-- Bengals covered once in last seven divisional road games.
-- Jets covered six of their last eight home games.
-- Chiefs are 2-10 in last dozen games as home favorite.
-- 49ers covered eight of last nine as road favorites.
-- Arizona is 11-2-1 in last 14 non-divisional games.
**********
Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend......
13) There are three home underdogs in the NFL this weekend: Falcons-Dolphins-Cowboys. Which one has the best chance of winning? I’d say Atlanta, based on Siants’ struggles away from the Superdome in recent years.
12) Michigan State-Oregon is a statement game for conference supremacy, which is more important now, with the 4-team playoff looming for the first time. Spartans have had a very good defense recently; it gets a huge test this week in Eugene.
11) Buccaneers (4-12 last year) are 2-point favorites over Carolina (12-4 last year); was Lovie Smith that much of an upgrade over Greg Schiano, the last Tampa coach? (yes) Bucs' defense will force more turnovers under Lovie Smith.
10) Stanford-USC is Steve Sarkisian’s first Pac-12 game with the Trojans, as both teams step way up in class after dismantling inferior opponents last week. Cardinal has won five of last seven series games.
9) Since 1990, only 25% of NFL teams who lost their opener made it to the playoffs; keep that in mind while your favorite team plays Sunday.
8) Notre Dame-Michigan are playing for the last time in the foreseeable future, as Irish will be playing more ACC teams as payment for that league letting Notre Dame play basketball in the ACC, thereby siphoning off some of their NCAA tournament money. One thing about Notre Dame, they make a lot of money.
7) Giants were 5-0 this preseason, but no one thought they played well- their subs pulled some games out at the end and they won ‘em all this summer. Now comes the opener in Detroit; Lions have better talent, but Coughlin vs Caldwell is an epic coaching mismatch.
6) BYU ran the football for 550 yards in a 41-20 dismantling of Texas last year. 550 yards. You think the Texas conditioning coach mentioned that once or twice during conditioning drills this winter? 5) Oakland’s Derek Carr is the only rookie QB starting this week, while Jets start 2nd-year QB Geno Smith. Big difference between playing for Fresno State and starting in the NFL, but Carr beat out Matt Schaub—we’ll see how he does.
4) Texas A&M’s offense treated South Carolina like a piñata last week, scoring 52 points in Columbia; how do the Gamecocks bounce back as a double digit favorite over an East Carolina squad with experienced QB Shane Carden running the show? Pirates have historically played their BCS opponents pretty tough.
3) How much will Peyton Manning miss Wes Welker and which Bronco will step up and make the plays Welker would’ve?
2) Oakland A’s need to right their ship this weekend against Houston; 23 games left, they need to play pretty good ball to make the playoffs. A’s were terrific for four months, then dreadful in August; September needs to be a better month.
1) How will Shaun Hill do against Minnesota, in his first NFL start since 2010? He has a 13-13 record as an NFL starter. Will the Rams be improved? How will Matt Cassel do in Norv Turner’s offense?
Team to Watch - Tennessee
September 5, 2014
Perhaps as an ode to late owner Bud Adams, the Tennessee Titans (SU 7-9, ATS 6-9-1, O/U 10-6) honored the memory of their former patriarch by switching coaches almost as soon as Adams passed last October. Just over two months later, HC Mike Munchak was dismissed, much as Adams used to do to his coaches with regularity while the franchise was known as the Houston Oilers. Though, to be fair, in his later years Adams was not nearly as impatient with his employees, and in fact kept Jeff Fisher employed as coach for 17 years.
(The Titans organization is now controlled by Adams' offspring, a consortium of daughter Susan and her husband Tommy Smith, who serves as CEO, daughter Amy Adams Strunk, and grandson Kenneth Adams IV.)
A new era of Titans football was thus christened in January with the hiring of Ken Whisenhunt, most recently the o.c. of the Chargers but previously the HC of the Cardinals between 2007-12 (and before that the o.c. with the Steelers). While in Arizona he was the only coach to lead the Bidwills to a Super Bowl, and indeed looked to be on his way to a secure future in the Valley of the Sun before the operation began to unravel after the retirement of QB Kurt Warner. Whisenhunt, who had turned to Warner almost in desperation after his inherited QB, Matt Leinart, proved such a flop, never got the QB equation right thereafter, contributing to the demise of his regime in the desert. Whisenhunt, though, remains well-regarded, and was the subject of a bidding war in the offseason as the Lions and Browns also actively recruited the Georgia Tech alum.
(We suspect Whisnhunt's wife Alice might have had a bit to do with the eventual choice of Nashville and its appealing Cool Springs Mall, while Whisenhunt's accountant didn't have to remind the coach that there is no state income tax in Tennessee, either.)
AFC South observers were quick to note a difference in the Titans training camp, which was a lot more organized with Whisenhunt than it was for predecessor Munchak. Indeed, Munchak was learning on the job in his first head coaching assignment, with several bumpy patches along the way. Insiders and scouts are unanimous in their belief that the entire Tennessee football operation seems to be operating more smoothly for Whisenhunt.
Now, can that translate to wins?
Much depends upon the health of oft-injured QB Jake Locker, who has found it difficult to stay in one piece throughout his career, both in college at Washington and with the Titans. Locker started just 18 of 32 games over the 2012 and 2013 seasons, as injuries to his foot, hip and shoulder kept Jake out of the lineup almost half the time. Those recurring maladies (a risk of Locker's fearless, physical, RB-like mentality and style) and the coaching change suggest that Locker is running out of chances in Nashville, which is one reason his contract hasn't been extended beyond 2014, as the club has declined to exercise an option for 2015. If Locker is to be the long-range QB answer for the Titans, he has to prove so this fall.
That might not be easy. An offense that has relied on the athleticism of Steve McNair, Vince Young, and Locker over the past decade now shifts to the Whisenhunt model of balance, precision passing, and limiting of turnovers. Locker remains a superior athlete, good improvisor, and on-field leader. But back to his frosh college season at Washington in 2007, only once has he completed better than 60% of his passes in a season (60.7% in limited work a year ago). He'll have to improve those numbers considerably, and prove he can stay healthy, for the Titans to reinvest in him. Already, strong-armed LSU rookie Zach Mettenberger, a possible steal in the sixth round of the draft, is looking like a possible long-term fit for the Whisenhunt offense after impressive preseason work. With Ryan Fitzpatrick off to Houston, and journeyman FA addition Charlie Whitehurt a short-term alternative at best, the Mettenberger era might be coming sooner than expected to Nashville if Locker can't stay healthy, or otherwise deliver, this fall..
Locker will also have to proceed without RB Chris Johnson, a longtime staple of Titan offenses, who was released in the offseason before landing with the Jets. A committee of backs, including former Jet, Shonn Greene (who disappointed in limited work last season), is expected to be a part of the infantry chores that will also likely feature another ex-Washington Husky, rookie Bishop Sankey, who can dance between the tackles and suddenly looms as an important cog for the offense, as well as ex-Chief Dexter McCluster, one of Tennessee's featured FA signings who could be used much the way Whisenhunt utilized Danny Woodhead, who caught 106 passes for the "Coach Wiz" offense in San Diego last season.
The receiving targets are mostly familiar, with Kendall Wright (94 catches last season) and Nate Washington (58 receptions in 2013) still in the fold. Whisenhunt will be looking for both to make their catches count a bit more after combining for only 5 TDs on their 142 receptions a year ago.
Improvement along the OL will also be mandatory if the Titans want to get back above .500, and GM Ruston Webster focused much of his offseason activity on OL upgrades, inking decorated RT Michael ("Blind Side") Oher from the Ravens as well as tabbing Michigan T Taylor Lewan with the 11th pick in the first round of the draft after RG Chance Warmack was selected with a first-round pick in 2013. They'll be expected to revamp the run blocking and solidify the pocket for Locker. Without those upgrades, it is doubtful Tennessee can improve upon its 7 wins from last season.
Whisenhunt used his old Arizona connections to fill out his staff. Fortuitously, that would include d.c. Ray Horton, who held the same position for Wiz in the desert and when last seen was working magic with the Cleveland defense last season before being part of the latest purge of the Browns coaching staff by impetuous owner Jimmy Haslam. Horton, a longtime devotee of 3-4 looks, will thus change the Titan scheme that has been 4-3 dating to the franchise's later days in Houston.
Fortunately for Horton, LBs Shaun Phillips (FA Denver) and Kamerion Wimbley have spent much of their pro careers standing up on the edge. It is also hoped that Akeem Ayers, who thrived in the 3-4 during his college days at UCLA, will adapt quickly to the new alignments after injury problems the past few years. Former DE Derrick Morgan will shift to an OLB spot for the first time in his career. At the inside LB spots, another FA via the Broncos, former Kentucky star Wesley Woodyard, could also provide an upgrade and is expected to help the run defense. The shift to a 3-4 also slightly changes the dynamics for DT Jurrell Casey, who was disruptive as an interior pass rusher in 2013 when recording 10 1/2 sacks, but will have to assume a role of tying up more blockers in Horton's 3-4 scheme.
Horton also inherits a pass "D" that was slightly above average a year ago but must replace playmaking CB Alterraun Verner, who moved to the Bucs in free agency. The battle for Verner's vacated RCB spot opposite Jason McCourty on the other side of the field has been one of the featured battles of training camp, with holdovers Coty Sensabaugh and Blidi Wreh-Wilson back-and-forth in the fight for a starting job. The other secondary positions remain set from 2013, featuring hard-hitting safeties Bernard Pollard and Michael Griffin. The platoon was a bit slow to adapt to Horton's 3-4 in the preseason, however, creating a bit of a red flag as the regular season approaches.
Whisenhunt is also auditioning new kickers after longtime PK Rob Bironas, who effectiveness beyond 40 yards had been in decline, was released. Whisenhunt watched the waiver wire closely after auditioning South Florida PK Maikon Bonani and another Washington Husky, rookie FA Travis Coons, in preseason before signing ex-Chief PK Ryan Succop at the conclusion of the exhibition season.
There are some question marks regarding the Titans, beginning with Locker's durability, making it risky to forecast them as a playoff contender. But we view Whisenhunt as an upgrade from Munchak on the sidelines, and the nucleus of talent (especially a healthy Locker) suggests a breakthrough is not impossible. Which is why we like Tennessee more than the Jags or Texans...though Nashville folk are likely to be watching Vanderbilt basketball rather than any Titans playoff action come January.
September 5, 2014
Perhaps as an ode to late owner Bud Adams, the Tennessee Titans (SU 7-9, ATS 6-9-1, O/U 10-6) honored the memory of their former patriarch by switching coaches almost as soon as Adams passed last October. Just over two months later, HC Mike Munchak was dismissed, much as Adams used to do to his coaches with regularity while the franchise was known as the Houston Oilers. Though, to be fair, in his later years Adams was not nearly as impatient with his employees, and in fact kept Jeff Fisher employed as coach for 17 years.
(The Titans organization is now controlled by Adams' offspring, a consortium of daughter Susan and her husband Tommy Smith, who serves as CEO, daughter Amy Adams Strunk, and grandson Kenneth Adams IV.)
A new era of Titans football was thus christened in January with the hiring of Ken Whisenhunt, most recently the o.c. of the Chargers but previously the HC of the Cardinals between 2007-12 (and before that the o.c. with the Steelers). While in Arizona he was the only coach to lead the Bidwills to a Super Bowl, and indeed looked to be on his way to a secure future in the Valley of the Sun before the operation began to unravel after the retirement of QB Kurt Warner. Whisenhunt, who had turned to Warner almost in desperation after his inherited QB, Matt Leinart, proved such a flop, never got the QB equation right thereafter, contributing to the demise of his regime in the desert. Whisenhunt, though, remains well-regarded, and was the subject of a bidding war in the offseason as the Lions and Browns also actively recruited the Georgia Tech alum.
(We suspect Whisnhunt's wife Alice might have had a bit to do with the eventual choice of Nashville and its appealing Cool Springs Mall, while Whisenhunt's accountant didn't have to remind the coach that there is no state income tax in Tennessee, either.)
AFC South observers were quick to note a difference in the Titans training camp, which was a lot more organized with Whisenhunt than it was for predecessor Munchak. Indeed, Munchak was learning on the job in his first head coaching assignment, with several bumpy patches along the way. Insiders and scouts are unanimous in their belief that the entire Tennessee football operation seems to be operating more smoothly for Whisenhunt.
Now, can that translate to wins?
Much depends upon the health of oft-injured QB Jake Locker, who has found it difficult to stay in one piece throughout his career, both in college at Washington and with the Titans. Locker started just 18 of 32 games over the 2012 and 2013 seasons, as injuries to his foot, hip and shoulder kept Jake out of the lineup almost half the time. Those recurring maladies (a risk of Locker's fearless, physical, RB-like mentality and style) and the coaching change suggest that Locker is running out of chances in Nashville, which is one reason his contract hasn't been extended beyond 2014, as the club has declined to exercise an option for 2015. If Locker is to be the long-range QB answer for the Titans, he has to prove so this fall.
That might not be easy. An offense that has relied on the athleticism of Steve McNair, Vince Young, and Locker over the past decade now shifts to the Whisenhunt model of balance, precision passing, and limiting of turnovers. Locker remains a superior athlete, good improvisor, and on-field leader. But back to his frosh college season at Washington in 2007, only once has he completed better than 60% of his passes in a season (60.7% in limited work a year ago). He'll have to improve those numbers considerably, and prove he can stay healthy, for the Titans to reinvest in him. Already, strong-armed LSU rookie Zach Mettenberger, a possible steal in the sixth round of the draft, is looking like a possible long-term fit for the Whisenhunt offense after impressive preseason work. With Ryan Fitzpatrick off to Houston, and journeyman FA addition Charlie Whitehurt a short-term alternative at best, the Mettenberger era might be coming sooner than expected to Nashville if Locker can't stay healthy, or otherwise deliver, this fall..
Locker will also have to proceed without RB Chris Johnson, a longtime staple of Titan offenses, who was released in the offseason before landing with the Jets. A committee of backs, including former Jet, Shonn Greene (who disappointed in limited work last season), is expected to be a part of the infantry chores that will also likely feature another ex-Washington Husky, rookie Bishop Sankey, who can dance between the tackles and suddenly looms as an important cog for the offense, as well as ex-Chief Dexter McCluster, one of Tennessee's featured FA signings who could be used much the way Whisenhunt utilized Danny Woodhead, who caught 106 passes for the "Coach Wiz" offense in San Diego last season.
The receiving targets are mostly familiar, with Kendall Wright (94 catches last season) and Nate Washington (58 receptions in 2013) still in the fold. Whisenhunt will be looking for both to make their catches count a bit more after combining for only 5 TDs on their 142 receptions a year ago.
Improvement along the OL will also be mandatory if the Titans want to get back above .500, and GM Ruston Webster focused much of his offseason activity on OL upgrades, inking decorated RT Michael ("Blind Side") Oher from the Ravens as well as tabbing Michigan T Taylor Lewan with the 11th pick in the first round of the draft after RG Chance Warmack was selected with a first-round pick in 2013. They'll be expected to revamp the run blocking and solidify the pocket for Locker. Without those upgrades, it is doubtful Tennessee can improve upon its 7 wins from last season.
Whisenhunt used his old Arizona connections to fill out his staff. Fortuitously, that would include d.c. Ray Horton, who held the same position for Wiz in the desert and when last seen was working magic with the Cleveland defense last season before being part of the latest purge of the Browns coaching staff by impetuous owner Jimmy Haslam. Horton, a longtime devotee of 3-4 looks, will thus change the Titan scheme that has been 4-3 dating to the franchise's later days in Houston.
Fortunately for Horton, LBs Shaun Phillips (FA Denver) and Kamerion Wimbley have spent much of their pro careers standing up on the edge. It is also hoped that Akeem Ayers, who thrived in the 3-4 during his college days at UCLA, will adapt quickly to the new alignments after injury problems the past few years. Former DE Derrick Morgan will shift to an OLB spot for the first time in his career. At the inside LB spots, another FA via the Broncos, former Kentucky star Wesley Woodyard, could also provide an upgrade and is expected to help the run defense. The shift to a 3-4 also slightly changes the dynamics for DT Jurrell Casey, who was disruptive as an interior pass rusher in 2013 when recording 10 1/2 sacks, but will have to assume a role of tying up more blockers in Horton's 3-4 scheme.
Horton also inherits a pass "D" that was slightly above average a year ago but must replace playmaking CB Alterraun Verner, who moved to the Bucs in free agency. The battle for Verner's vacated RCB spot opposite Jason McCourty on the other side of the field has been one of the featured battles of training camp, with holdovers Coty Sensabaugh and Blidi Wreh-Wilson back-and-forth in the fight for a starting job. The other secondary positions remain set from 2013, featuring hard-hitting safeties Bernard Pollard and Michael Griffin. The platoon was a bit slow to adapt to Horton's 3-4 in the preseason, however, creating a bit of a red flag as the regular season approaches.
Whisenhunt is also auditioning new kickers after longtime PK Rob Bironas, who effectiveness beyond 40 yards had been in decline, was released. Whisenhunt watched the waiver wire closely after auditioning South Florida PK Maikon Bonani and another Washington Husky, rookie FA Travis Coons, in preseason before signing ex-Chief PK Ryan Succop at the conclusion of the exhibition season.
There are some question marks regarding the Titans, beginning with Locker's durability, making it risky to forecast them as a playoff contender. But we view Whisenhunt as an upgrade from Munchak on the sidelines, and the nucleus of talent (especially a healthy Locker) suggests a breakthrough is not impossible. Which is why we like Tennessee more than the Jags or Texans...though Nashville folk are likely to be watching Vanderbilt basketball rather than any Titans playoff action come January.
Sharp Moves - Week 1
September 5, 2014
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays a lot sharper than others.
Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 1 of the pro football season!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Friday morning.
(Rotation #466) St. Louis -3.5 – It's not often that a favored team is considered sharp, but that's what the case is here in St. Louis. The Rams remember, were considered to be one of the up and coming teams in the league this year until quarterback Sam Bradford tore his ACL. The oddsmakers adjusted from the Rams being favored by five to favored by just 3.5 in this one, and that's proof that perhaps there isn't that much of a drop off from Bradford to QB Shaun Hill in the oddsmakers' eyes. St. Louis is a lot more than just a one-man offense, and this defense is the real deal. We see no reason why the Rams shouldn't be laying more than just standard home field advantage in this game.
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Opening Line: St. Louis -5
Current Line: St. Louis -3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on Minnesota
(Rotation #469) Jacksonville +10 – The sharpest play on the board. Most figure that head coach Chip Kelly is going to be able to keep QB Nick Foles playing at a ridiculously high rate in 2014, and we just don't know if it is going to happen. The Jaguars closed out the season on a strong note last year, and we have a feeling that they are going to be one of the better surprise teams in 2014. They aren't going to win this game, but just the fact that the spread has come down from 11.5 at the open to 10 at the present (with some 10.5 numbers still being shown up there) is proof enough to us that the "Wise Guys" agree with our assessment. This is a whole heck of a lot of points for a team to be getting in Week 1; especially with many of the belief that Philly is the surefire bet to repeat as NFC East champions.
Opening Line: Jacksonville +11.5
Current Line: Jacksonville +10
Public Betting Percentage: 69% on Philadelphia
(Rotation #479) Tennessee +3.5 – The Titans and Chiefs were really nowhere near each other last year, but the oddsmakers think that these clubs are virtually even heading into 2014. It's tough to fathom that, but Tennessee should be at least a relatively average team. This is a bet though, that goes against the public perception that says Kansas City is a good squad. In fact, we don't see how this team finishes .500 this year. QB Alex Smith is the quintessential game manager, and if RB Jamaal Charles is even remotely slowed down and DE Justin Houston can't get off of the edge in a hurry, we don't see how the Chiefs are winning games on either side of the ball.
Opening Line: Tennessee +5.5
Current Line: Tennessee +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 73% on Kansas City
September 5, 2014
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays a lot sharper than others.
Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 1 of the pro football season!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Friday morning.
(Rotation #466) St. Louis -3.5 – It's not often that a favored team is considered sharp, but that's what the case is here in St. Louis. The Rams remember, were considered to be one of the up and coming teams in the league this year until quarterback Sam Bradford tore his ACL. The oddsmakers adjusted from the Rams being favored by five to favored by just 3.5 in this one, and that's proof that perhaps there isn't that much of a drop off from Bradford to QB Shaun Hill in the oddsmakers' eyes. St. Louis is a lot more than just a one-man offense, and this defense is the real deal. We see no reason why the Rams shouldn't be laying more than just standard home field advantage in this game.
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Opening Line: St. Louis -5
Current Line: St. Louis -3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on Minnesota
(Rotation #469) Jacksonville +10 – The sharpest play on the board. Most figure that head coach Chip Kelly is going to be able to keep QB Nick Foles playing at a ridiculously high rate in 2014, and we just don't know if it is going to happen. The Jaguars closed out the season on a strong note last year, and we have a feeling that they are going to be one of the better surprise teams in 2014. They aren't going to win this game, but just the fact that the spread has come down from 11.5 at the open to 10 at the present (with some 10.5 numbers still being shown up there) is proof enough to us that the "Wise Guys" agree with our assessment. This is a whole heck of a lot of points for a team to be getting in Week 1; especially with many of the belief that Philly is the surefire bet to repeat as NFC East champions.
Opening Line: Jacksonville +11.5
Current Line: Jacksonville +10
Public Betting Percentage: 69% on Philadelphia
(Rotation #479) Tennessee +3.5 – The Titans and Chiefs were really nowhere near each other last year, but the oddsmakers think that these clubs are virtually even heading into 2014. It's tough to fathom that, but Tennessee should be at least a relatively average team. This is a bet though, that goes against the public perception that says Kansas City is a good squad. In fact, we don't see how this team finishes .500 this year. QB Alex Smith is the quintessential game manager, and if RB Jamaal Charles is even remotely slowed down and DE Justin Houston can't get off of the edge in a hurry, we don't see how the Chiefs are winning games on either side of the ball.
Opening Line: Tennessee +5.5
Current Line: Tennessee +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 73% on Kansas City
Sunday's Top Action
September 5, 2014
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at ATLANTA FALCONS
Sportsbook.ag Line: New Orleans -3 (-115) & 52
Opening Line & Total: Falcons -1 & 52
The Falcons host the Saints Sunday in an opening week matchup that could have huge implications within the NFC South later in the year.
Atlanta had a miserable season last year, disappointing its fans with a 4-12 SU record. The team was completely depleted by injuries, but now has a clean slate. A Week 1 win over the rival Saints could send a message to the league.
New Orleans made the playoffs after going 11-5 SU last season, but has its sights on winning the division and playing in the Super Bowl. Over the past three seasons, New Orleans is 3-1 SU against Atlanta, but the two have split wins ATS. When playing in Atlanta in those games, however, the Falcons are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS.
Last season, the Saints beat the Falcons on the road 17-13 as 7.5-point favorites. Three of the past four games played in this series have gone Under the total. The Saints have a 17-9 SU advantage in this series in the past 13 years, but the Falcons are 7-0 ATS at home in the first two weeks of the season under head coach Mike Smith.
The Saints had a strong 2013 season, finishing the year 11-5 and just one game behind the division-leading Carolina Panthers. QB Drew Brees is fresh off of a season in which he threw for 5,162 yards, 39 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. New Orleans traded RB Darren Sproles to Philadelphia for a draft pick, but in comes talented rookie WR Brandin Cooks who is looking to impact the passing game as well. He caught 128 passes for 1,730 yards and 16 touchdowns in his junior year at Oregon State. TE Jimmy Graham’s 16 touchdowns last season finally earned him a big contract extension and he and his quarterback will continue to terrorize defenses.
The Falcons, however, had a lot of trouble defending the rush last season. This could mean that the Saints look to get the ground game going early. The Saints defense allowed just 194.1 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and 111.6 rushing yards per game (19th in NFL) last season. Although they improved a lot defensively last year, it was not enough for them to be complacent. The team brought in three-time Pro Bowl FS Jairus Byrd to quarterback their secondary. He’ll have his work cut out for him going against a talented Falcons receiving corps.
Last season, Atlanta had high expectations but got off to a rocky 1-3 start and couldn’t get back into the swing of things all season. Injuries completely derailed the season where the club finished 4-12. However, the Falcons improved both their offensive and defensive lines in the offseason and WR Julio Jones is completely healthy after undergoing midseason foot surgery last year. QB Matt Ryan will be thrilled to have his go-to guy back as he threw for 13 touchdowns and just one interception in the first six games last season. After Jones left the field in Week 5 with his injury, it was downhill for the quarterback as he threw for 13 touchdowns and 16 interceptions the rest of the way.
RB Steven Jackson could be heavily featured in Week 1, as the Saints’ weakness is their ability to defend the run. Jackson is healthy now and the Falcons will feed him the rock early to open up the passing game. The Falcons will desperately need to clean up defensively if they are going to get themselves back into the hunt for the postseason.
Last year, Atlanta allowed 243.6 yards per game through the air (21st in NFL) and 135.8 yards per game on the ground (2nd-worst in NFL). The Falcons team that New Orleans is playing on Sunday will be far different from what they saw last year.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (0-0) at DALLAS COWBOYS (0-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: San Francisco -4.5 & 51.5
Opening Line & Total: 49ers -3 & 48.5
The Cowboys host the 49ers on Sunday and both teams will be looking to show the world that they are not completely one-dimensional.
San Francisco has a lot to prove in the opening week of the NFL season. The team severely struggled offensively during the preseason, for the most part failing to put up points with their first-team offense on the field.
Defensively, this team was elite last year but they are dealing with major injuries heading into this season, including star LB NaVorro Bowman (knee) and suspended OLB Aldon Smith. The Cowboys will return one of the most potent offenses in the league, but their lack of an NFL-caliber defense will neutralize all of the good they do on that side of the ball.
These teams have not met in the past three seasons, but when playing in Dallas since 1992, the Cowboys are 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS against the 49ers. Ten of the past 13 games played between these two teams have gone Over the total. San Francisco is 9-1 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less over the past three seasons, but the Cowboys have an excellent 10-5-1 ATS mark in the first half of the past two years.
Both teams are dealing with a few injuries, most notably San Francisco O-Linemen Marcus Martin (knee), Anthony Davis (hamstring) and Brandon Thomas (knee), and on the Dallas side, LB Sean Lee (knee) is out for the season, and DE Anthony Spencer (knee) will not be ready to play on Sunday.
The 49ers had a fantastic 2013 season, finishing 12-4 in the regular season and falling to the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks in the NFC Championship. The 49ers will benefit from having a full season of WR Michael Crabtree, who returned late last year after recovering from a torn Achilles tendon.
All eyes will be on QB Colin Kaepernick when the 49ers take the field on Sunday, as this team really looked miserable on offense during the regular season. Kaepernick threw for 3,197 yards and 21 touchdowns last season, while adding 524 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. This coaching staff will either need to get more out of Kaepernick through the air or take the reigns off of him in the running game, where he has shown he can dominate in the past.
San Francisco’s defense allowed only 221 passing yards per game (7th in NFL) and 95.9 rushing yards per game (4th in NFL) last season. They are, however, dealing with injuries to LB NaVorro Bowman (knee) and DT Glenn Dorsey (arm) while LB Aldon Smith is suspended for nine games.
The Dallas Cowboys hopes of making the playoffs will rest squarely on the shoulders of the defense. Last season, the Cowboys allowed 286.8 yards per game through the air (30th in NFL) and 128.5 yards per game on the ground (27th in NFL).
This matchup is just what the doctor ordered for the struggling San Francisco offense. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are more than capable of winning in a shootout. Tony Romo is healthy after undergoing surgery on his back. He threw for 3,828 yards, 31 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions last season.
The Cowboys’ new offensive coordinator, Scott Linehan, hopes to have Tony Romo get rid of the ball quicker while spreading it around more often. The team will also rely heavily on DeMarco Murray this season. Murray is a workhorse when healthy and he rushed for 1,121 yards and nine touchdowns in 2013. Dez Bryant is going to be in the mix even more often than last season. He is playing for a contract extension, coming off of a season in which he caught 93 passes for 1,233 yards and 13 touchdowns.
September 5, 2014
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at ATLANTA FALCONS
Sportsbook.ag Line: New Orleans -3 (-115) & 52
Opening Line & Total: Falcons -1 & 52
The Falcons host the Saints Sunday in an opening week matchup that could have huge implications within the NFC South later in the year.
Atlanta had a miserable season last year, disappointing its fans with a 4-12 SU record. The team was completely depleted by injuries, but now has a clean slate. A Week 1 win over the rival Saints could send a message to the league.
New Orleans made the playoffs after going 11-5 SU last season, but has its sights on winning the division and playing in the Super Bowl. Over the past three seasons, New Orleans is 3-1 SU against Atlanta, but the two have split wins ATS. When playing in Atlanta in those games, however, the Falcons are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS.
Last season, the Saints beat the Falcons on the road 17-13 as 7.5-point favorites. Three of the past four games played in this series have gone Under the total. The Saints have a 17-9 SU advantage in this series in the past 13 years, but the Falcons are 7-0 ATS at home in the first two weeks of the season under head coach Mike Smith.
The Saints had a strong 2013 season, finishing the year 11-5 and just one game behind the division-leading Carolina Panthers. QB Drew Brees is fresh off of a season in which he threw for 5,162 yards, 39 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. New Orleans traded RB Darren Sproles to Philadelphia for a draft pick, but in comes talented rookie WR Brandin Cooks who is looking to impact the passing game as well. He caught 128 passes for 1,730 yards and 16 touchdowns in his junior year at Oregon State. TE Jimmy Graham’s 16 touchdowns last season finally earned him a big contract extension and he and his quarterback will continue to terrorize defenses.
The Falcons, however, had a lot of trouble defending the rush last season. This could mean that the Saints look to get the ground game going early. The Saints defense allowed just 194.1 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and 111.6 rushing yards per game (19th in NFL) last season. Although they improved a lot defensively last year, it was not enough for them to be complacent. The team brought in three-time Pro Bowl FS Jairus Byrd to quarterback their secondary. He’ll have his work cut out for him going against a talented Falcons receiving corps.
Last season, Atlanta had high expectations but got off to a rocky 1-3 start and couldn’t get back into the swing of things all season. Injuries completely derailed the season where the club finished 4-12. However, the Falcons improved both their offensive and defensive lines in the offseason and WR Julio Jones is completely healthy after undergoing midseason foot surgery last year. QB Matt Ryan will be thrilled to have his go-to guy back as he threw for 13 touchdowns and just one interception in the first six games last season. After Jones left the field in Week 5 with his injury, it was downhill for the quarterback as he threw for 13 touchdowns and 16 interceptions the rest of the way.
RB Steven Jackson could be heavily featured in Week 1, as the Saints’ weakness is their ability to defend the run. Jackson is healthy now and the Falcons will feed him the rock early to open up the passing game. The Falcons will desperately need to clean up defensively if they are going to get themselves back into the hunt for the postseason.
Last year, Atlanta allowed 243.6 yards per game through the air (21st in NFL) and 135.8 yards per game on the ground (2nd-worst in NFL). The Falcons team that New Orleans is playing on Sunday will be far different from what they saw last year.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (0-0) at DALLAS COWBOYS (0-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: San Francisco -4.5 & 51.5
Opening Line & Total: 49ers -3 & 48.5
The Cowboys host the 49ers on Sunday and both teams will be looking to show the world that they are not completely one-dimensional.
San Francisco has a lot to prove in the opening week of the NFL season. The team severely struggled offensively during the preseason, for the most part failing to put up points with their first-team offense on the field.
Defensively, this team was elite last year but they are dealing with major injuries heading into this season, including star LB NaVorro Bowman (knee) and suspended OLB Aldon Smith. The Cowboys will return one of the most potent offenses in the league, but their lack of an NFL-caliber defense will neutralize all of the good they do on that side of the ball.
These teams have not met in the past three seasons, but when playing in Dallas since 1992, the Cowboys are 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS against the 49ers. Ten of the past 13 games played between these two teams have gone Over the total. San Francisco is 9-1 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less over the past three seasons, but the Cowboys have an excellent 10-5-1 ATS mark in the first half of the past two years.
Both teams are dealing with a few injuries, most notably San Francisco O-Linemen Marcus Martin (knee), Anthony Davis (hamstring) and Brandon Thomas (knee), and on the Dallas side, LB Sean Lee (knee) is out for the season, and DE Anthony Spencer (knee) will not be ready to play on Sunday.
The 49ers had a fantastic 2013 season, finishing 12-4 in the regular season and falling to the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks in the NFC Championship. The 49ers will benefit from having a full season of WR Michael Crabtree, who returned late last year after recovering from a torn Achilles tendon.
All eyes will be on QB Colin Kaepernick when the 49ers take the field on Sunday, as this team really looked miserable on offense during the regular season. Kaepernick threw for 3,197 yards and 21 touchdowns last season, while adding 524 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. This coaching staff will either need to get more out of Kaepernick through the air or take the reigns off of him in the running game, where he has shown he can dominate in the past.
San Francisco’s defense allowed only 221 passing yards per game (7th in NFL) and 95.9 rushing yards per game (4th in NFL) last season. They are, however, dealing with injuries to LB NaVorro Bowman (knee) and DT Glenn Dorsey (arm) while LB Aldon Smith is suspended for nine games.
The Dallas Cowboys hopes of making the playoffs will rest squarely on the shoulders of the defense. Last season, the Cowboys allowed 286.8 yards per game through the air (30th in NFL) and 128.5 yards per game on the ground (27th in NFL).
This matchup is just what the doctor ordered for the struggling San Francisco offense. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are more than capable of winning in a shootout. Tony Romo is healthy after undergoing surgery on his back. He threw for 3,828 yards, 31 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions last season.
The Cowboys’ new offensive coordinator, Scott Linehan, hopes to have Tony Romo get rid of the ball quicker while spreading it around more often. The team will also rely heavily on DeMarco Murray this season. Murray is a workhorse when healthy and he rushed for 1,121 yards and nine touchdowns in 2013. Dez Bryant is going to be in the mix even more often than last season. He is playing for a contract extension, coming off of a season in which he caught 93 passes for 1,233 yards and 13 touchdowns.
SNF - Colts at Broncos
September 5, 2014
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at DENVER BRONCOS
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -8 & 56
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -7.5 & 55.5
The Broncos’ road to Super Bowl redemption begins with a Sunday night showdown against the Colts in Week 1.
The 2013 regular season ended with Denver Broncos atop the AFC West and tied for the league’s best record at 13-3. Peyton Manning led his team to the Super Bowl, but the game didn’t play out the way they thought it would. Denver was beat down 43-8 by the Seahawks and that loss resulted in plenty of offseason changes.
The Indianapolis Colts, on the other hand, just have their goals set on continuing to improve behind their franchise QB Andrew Luck. They should be able to win the AFC South again this season, regardless of whether or not they improve on their 11-5 record from a year ago.
The last time these teams met 11 months ago, the Colts spoiled Manning's return to Indy by defeating the Broncos 39-33 as 6.5-point underdogs in Indianapolis. That win improved the Colts to 9-3 (SU and ATS) when playing the Broncos since 1992. But John Fox is 16-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 point as the coach of Denver.
One key player for each team in this game is suspended -- OLB Robert Mathis for Indy and WR Wes Welker for Denver -- and the only significant injury is Broncos LB Danny Trevathan (leg) who is out indefinitely.
The Colts have become a playoff team a lot faster than many imagined when they lost Peyton Manning to free agency just a few years back. Andrew Luck was just what this team needed and he has turned Indy into a playoff team that is on the verge of being able to make deep playoff run.
Last season, Luck threw for 3,822 yards with 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Denver’s weakness on defense is defending the pass, so it’s a good chance for the Colts to open up the playbook and let Luck do his thing.
This team often relies too much on its running game, especially since the acquisition of Trent Richardson last season. Richardson has a career average of 3.3 yards per carry and is likely in what will be a make or break year.
The Colts have improved defensively over the past two seasons. Last year, they allowed just 231.9 yards per game through the air (13th in NFL) but they will need to improve their pass rush. They allowed 125.1 yards per game on the ground (26th in NFL) last year and that number will need to get better in the 2014 season.
The Broncos are a star-studded squad that dominated the rest of the league last season until they met their match in the Super Bowl. Seattle exposed the Broncos’ defense and had them re-evaluating themselves in the offseason. Denver allowed 254.4 yards per game through the air (27th in NFL) and 101.6 yards per game on the ground (8th in NFL) last season.
The passing yards were a bit inflated because teams needed to throw late often when they were getting blown out. The Broncos saw the Super Bowl beatdown as a sign that they needed to get more talent on the defensive side of the ball, and they did just that by acquiring DE DeMarcus Ware, CB Aqib Talib and SS T.J Ward. When they get themselves fully healthy, opposing offenses will be afraid of this matchup.
Denver will also return the league’s best offense in 2014. Peyton Manning is healthy and back at it after a season in which he shattered league records with 5,477 passing yards and 55 touchdowns, while tossing only 10 interceptions in 2013.
His offense will now feature second-year pro Montee Ball as the workhorse running back. Ball was a force in college and should be able to make up for the production lost with Knowshon Moreno heading to Miami. New WR Emmanuel Sanders will be targeted often in place of Eric Decker, who signed a big deal to play for the Jets.
September 5, 2014
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at DENVER BRONCOS
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -8 & 56
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -7.5 & 55.5
The Broncos’ road to Super Bowl redemption begins with a Sunday night showdown against the Colts in Week 1.
The 2013 regular season ended with Denver Broncos atop the AFC West and tied for the league’s best record at 13-3. Peyton Manning led his team to the Super Bowl, but the game didn’t play out the way they thought it would. Denver was beat down 43-8 by the Seahawks and that loss resulted in plenty of offseason changes.
The Indianapolis Colts, on the other hand, just have their goals set on continuing to improve behind their franchise QB Andrew Luck. They should be able to win the AFC South again this season, regardless of whether or not they improve on their 11-5 record from a year ago.
The last time these teams met 11 months ago, the Colts spoiled Manning's return to Indy by defeating the Broncos 39-33 as 6.5-point underdogs in Indianapolis. That win improved the Colts to 9-3 (SU and ATS) when playing the Broncos since 1992. But John Fox is 16-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 point as the coach of Denver.
One key player for each team in this game is suspended -- OLB Robert Mathis for Indy and WR Wes Welker for Denver -- and the only significant injury is Broncos LB Danny Trevathan (leg) who is out indefinitely.
The Colts have become a playoff team a lot faster than many imagined when they lost Peyton Manning to free agency just a few years back. Andrew Luck was just what this team needed and he has turned Indy into a playoff team that is on the verge of being able to make deep playoff run.
Last season, Luck threw for 3,822 yards with 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Denver’s weakness on defense is defending the pass, so it’s a good chance for the Colts to open up the playbook and let Luck do his thing.
This team often relies too much on its running game, especially since the acquisition of Trent Richardson last season. Richardson has a career average of 3.3 yards per carry and is likely in what will be a make or break year.
The Colts have improved defensively over the past two seasons. Last year, they allowed just 231.9 yards per game through the air (13th in NFL) but they will need to improve their pass rush. They allowed 125.1 yards per game on the ground (26th in NFL) last year and that number will need to get better in the 2014 season.
The Broncos are a star-studded squad that dominated the rest of the league last season until they met their match in the Super Bowl. Seattle exposed the Broncos’ defense and had them re-evaluating themselves in the offseason. Denver allowed 254.4 yards per game through the air (27th in NFL) and 101.6 yards per game on the ground (8th in NFL) last season.
The passing yards were a bit inflated because teams needed to throw late often when they were getting blown out. The Broncos saw the Super Bowl beatdown as a sign that they needed to get more talent on the defensive side of the ball, and they did just that by acquiring DE DeMarcus Ware, CB Aqib Talib and SS T.J Ward. When they get themselves fully healthy, opposing offenses will be afraid of this matchup.
Denver will also return the league’s best offense in 2014. Peyton Manning is healthy and back at it after a season in which he shattered league records with 5,477 passing yards and 55 touchdowns, while tossing only 10 interceptions in 2013.
His offense will now feature second-year pro Montee Ball as the workhorse running back. Ball was a force in college and should be able to make up for the production lost with Knowshon Moreno heading to Miami. New WR Emmanuel Sanders will be targeted often in place of Eric Decker, who signed a big deal to play for the Jets.
Week 1 Tip Sheet
September 6, 2014
Saints (-3, 51 ½) at Falcons – 1:00 PM EST
Preseason Records:
New Orleans: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Atlanta: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
2013 Records:
New Orleans: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS
Atlanta: 4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS
Previous meeting results: As per usual with these two NFC South rivals, both games were decided by a total of 10 points as the Saints pulled off the season sweep. New Orleans grabbed the opener, 23-17 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, while holding off the Falcons at the Georgia Dome in November, 17-13 as 7 ½-point road favorites.
2013 Week 1 results:
-- The Saints knocked off the Falcons, 23-17 to cash as 3 ½-point home favorites.
Browns at Steelers (-6 ½, 41 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Preseason Records:
Cleveland: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS
Pittsburgh: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2013 Records:
Cleveland: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS
Pittsburgh: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS
Previous meeting results: The Browns have lost 18 of the past 20 matchups with the Steelers dating back to 2004, which includes two defeats last season. Both setbacks came in the second half of 2013, as the Steelers drilled the Browns in Cleveland, 27-11, followed by a 20-7 drubbing at Heinz Field in the season finale.
2013 Week 1 results:
-- Cleveland lost at home to Miami, 23-10 as 2 ½-point home favorites.
-- Pittsburgh dropped a 16-9 decision to Tennessee as six-point home ‘chalk.’
Bengals at Ravens (-1 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST
Preseason Records:
Cincinnati: 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS
Baltimore: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
2013 Records:
Cincinnati: 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS
Baltimore: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS
Previous meeting results: The Ravens held off the Bengals in overtime of their first matchup, 20-17, in spite of Cincinnati tying the game on the final play of regulation on a Hail Mary touchdown. The Bengals finished off the regular season by avenging that defeat with a 34-17 triumph over the Ravens as a seven-point home favorite. However, Cincinnati has lost four straight visits to M&T Bank Stadium.
2013 Week 1 results:
-- Cincinnati lost at Chicago, 24-21 to push as three-point road underdogs.
-- Baltimore fell at Denver as seven-point away underdogs, 49-27.
Patriots (-5) at Dolphins – 1:00 PM EST
Preseason Records:
New England: 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS
Miami: 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS
2013 Records:
New England: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS
Miami: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS
Previous meeting results: These two AFC East rivals split a pair of games last season with the home team winning each time. New England knocked off Miami in Foxboro last October, 27-17 to cover as six-point home favorites, but the Dolphins picked up revenge with a 24-20 December triumph as 2 ½-point home ‘chalk.’
2013 Week 1 results:
-- The Patriots held off the Bills as 10-point road favorites, 23-21.
-- Miami dominated Cleveland, 23-10 to cash as 2 ½-point away favorites.
Panthers at Buccaneers (-2, 39) – 4:25 PM EST
Preseason Records:
Carolina: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Tampa Bay: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2013 Records:
Carolina: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
Tampa Bay: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS
Previous meeting results: The Panthers swept the Buccaneers last season with a pair of blowout victories. Carolina ripped Tampa Bay, 31-13 at Raymond James Stadium as 6 ½-point favorites, while routing the Bucs at home a month later, 27-6. The Panthers have split their last six road meetings with Tampa Bay, while the ‘over’ has cashed in four of the past five trips to the Sunshine State.
2013 Week 1 results:
-- Carolina dropped a 12-7 home decision to Seattle as three-point underdogs.
-- The Bucs lost on a last-second field goal to the Jets as four-point road favorites, 18-17.
49ers (-4 ½, 51) at Cowboys – 4:25 PM EST
Preseason Records:
San Francisco: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Dallas: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS
2013 Records:
San Francisco: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS
Dallas: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS
Previous meeting result: The Cowboys held off the 49ers in overtime back in Week 2 of the 2011 season, 24-21 at Candlestick Park. Dallas pushed as three-point favorites, but gained over 450 yards of offense as the Cowboys won have each of the past three matchups with San Francisco dating back to 2002.
2013 Week 1 results:
-- San Francisco outlasted Green Bay, 34-28 as 5 ½-point home favorites.
-- Dallas held off the N.Y. Giants, 36-31 to cash as 3 ½-point home ‘chalk.’
September 6, 2014
Saints (-3, 51 ½) at Falcons – 1:00 PM EST
Preseason Records:
New Orleans: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Atlanta: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
2013 Records:
New Orleans: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS
Atlanta: 4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS
Previous meeting results: As per usual with these two NFC South rivals, both games were decided by a total of 10 points as the Saints pulled off the season sweep. New Orleans grabbed the opener, 23-17 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, while holding off the Falcons at the Georgia Dome in November, 17-13 as 7 ½-point road favorites.
2013 Week 1 results:
-- The Saints knocked off the Falcons, 23-17 to cash as 3 ½-point home favorites.
Browns at Steelers (-6 ½, 41 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Preseason Records:
Cleveland: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS
Pittsburgh: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2013 Records:
Cleveland: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS
Pittsburgh: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS
Previous meeting results: The Browns have lost 18 of the past 20 matchups with the Steelers dating back to 2004, which includes two defeats last season. Both setbacks came in the second half of 2013, as the Steelers drilled the Browns in Cleveland, 27-11, followed by a 20-7 drubbing at Heinz Field in the season finale.
2013 Week 1 results:
-- Cleveland lost at home to Miami, 23-10 as 2 ½-point home favorites.
-- Pittsburgh dropped a 16-9 decision to Tennessee as six-point home ‘chalk.’
Bengals at Ravens (-1 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST
Preseason Records:
Cincinnati: 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS
Baltimore: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
2013 Records:
Cincinnati: 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS
Baltimore: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS
Previous meeting results: The Ravens held off the Bengals in overtime of their first matchup, 20-17, in spite of Cincinnati tying the game on the final play of regulation on a Hail Mary touchdown. The Bengals finished off the regular season by avenging that defeat with a 34-17 triumph over the Ravens as a seven-point home favorite. However, Cincinnati has lost four straight visits to M&T Bank Stadium.
2013 Week 1 results:
-- Cincinnati lost at Chicago, 24-21 to push as three-point road underdogs.
-- Baltimore fell at Denver as seven-point away underdogs, 49-27.
Patriots (-5) at Dolphins – 1:00 PM EST
Preseason Records:
New England: 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS
Miami: 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS
2013 Records:
New England: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS
Miami: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS
Previous meeting results: These two AFC East rivals split a pair of games last season with the home team winning each time. New England knocked off Miami in Foxboro last October, 27-17 to cover as six-point home favorites, but the Dolphins picked up revenge with a 24-20 December triumph as 2 ½-point home ‘chalk.’
2013 Week 1 results:
-- The Patriots held off the Bills as 10-point road favorites, 23-21.
-- Miami dominated Cleveland, 23-10 to cash as 2 ½-point away favorites.
Panthers at Buccaneers (-2, 39) – 4:25 PM EST
Preseason Records:
Carolina: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Tampa Bay: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2013 Records:
Carolina: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
Tampa Bay: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS
Previous meeting results: The Panthers swept the Buccaneers last season with a pair of blowout victories. Carolina ripped Tampa Bay, 31-13 at Raymond James Stadium as 6 ½-point favorites, while routing the Bucs at home a month later, 27-6. The Panthers have split their last six road meetings with Tampa Bay, while the ‘over’ has cashed in four of the past five trips to the Sunshine State.
2013 Week 1 results:
-- Carolina dropped a 12-7 home decision to Seattle as three-point underdogs.
-- The Bucs lost on a last-second field goal to the Jets as four-point road favorites, 18-17.
49ers (-4 ½, 51) at Cowboys – 4:25 PM EST
Preseason Records:
San Francisco: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Dallas: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS
2013 Records:
San Francisco: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS
Dallas: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS
Previous meeting result: The Cowboys held off the 49ers in overtime back in Week 2 of the 2011 season, 24-21 at Candlestick Park. Dallas pushed as three-point favorites, but gained over 450 yards of offense as the Cowboys won have each of the past three matchups with San Francisco dating back to 2002.
2013 Week 1 results:
-- San Francisco outlasted Green Bay, 34-28 as 5 ½-point home favorites.
-- Dallas held off the N.Y. Giants, 36-31 to cash as 3 ½-point home ‘chalk.’
Gridiron Angles - Week 1
September 6, 2014
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Giants are 14-0 ATS since 2004 as an away dog in non-Sunday night games with a total over 44, facing a team they defeated by no more than 14 points last meeting.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Bengals are 0-8 ATS since 2008 against an AFC North foe that they beat by at least six points last meeting where they were not home dogs.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- Tom Brady is 0-12 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since 2005 against AFC teams when he threw for over 280 yards on less than 70% passing last time he faced this team, in a game where they were not favored by more than four points.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their season opener.
NCAA PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- Toledo is 12-0 ATS since October 25, 2008 as a 3-18 point dog with less than 9 days rest in the first 11 games of the season.
NCAA PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- Notre Dame is 0-12-2 ATS since October 23, 2004 if between a 3.5 and 7 point favorite, if they scored last week and allowed 7-34 points.
NFL O/U TREND:
-- The Steelers are 0-11 OU since December 04, 2011 as a home favorite facing a team they allowed no more than 20 points to last meeting.
NFL SUPER SYSTEM:
-- Teams which attempted at least 2.5 field goals per game last season are 12-1 OU in their season opener the next year. Active on Baltimore.
NCAA O/U TREND:
-- Notre Dame is 0-13 OU since 2010 at home as not more than a 14-point favorite if they scored more than 17 points last game.
NCAA SUPER SYSTEM:
-- Teams that are at least 20-point dogs after being at least 20-point favorites last game are 29-44-2 ATS. Active against San Jose State and Memphis.
September 6, 2014
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Giants are 14-0 ATS since 2004 as an away dog in non-Sunday night games with a total over 44, facing a team they defeated by no more than 14 points last meeting.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Bengals are 0-8 ATS since 2008 against an AFC North foe that they beat by at least six points last meeting where they were not home dogs.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- Tom Brady is 0-12 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since 2005 against AFC teams when he threw for over 280 yards on less than 70% passing last time he faced this team, in a game where they were not favored by more than four points.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their season opener.
NCAA PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- Toledo is 12-0 ATS since October 25, 2008 as a 3-18 point dog with less than 9 days rest in the first 11 games of the season.
NCAA PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- Notre Dame is 0-12-2 ATS since October 23, 2004 if between a 3.5 and 7 point favorite, if they scored last week and allowed 7-34 points.
NFL O/U TREND:
-- The Steelers are 0-11 OU since December 04, 2011 as a home favorite facing a team they allowed no more than 20 points to last meeting.
NFL SUPER SYSTEM:
-- Teams which attempted at least 2.5 field goals per game last season are 12-1 OU in their season opener the next year. Active on Baltimore.
NCAA O/U TREND:
-- Notre Dame is 0-13 OU since 2010 at home as not more than a 14-point favorite if they scored more than 17 points last game.
NCAA SUPER SYSTEM:
-- Teams that are at least 20-point dogs after being at least 20-point favorites last game are 29-44-2 ATS. Active against San Jose State and Memphis.
Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack
NFL trends to ponder for this week (all records are ATS):
-- Jets covered six of their last eight home games.
-- Steelers covered five of their last six home games.
-- Bengals covered once in last seven divisional road games.
-- 49ers covered eight of last nine as a road favorite.
-- Colts failed to cover their last six season openers.
-- Chargers are 7-3-1 vs spread in last 11 road games.
NFL trends to ponder for this week (all records are ATS):
-- Jets covered six of their last eight home games.
-- Steelers covered five of their last six home games.
-- Bengals covered once in last seven divisional road games.
-- 49ers covered eight of last nine as a road favorite.
-- Colts failed to cover their last six season openers.
-- Chargers are 7-3-1 vs spread in last 11 road games.
Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 1 line moves
NFL Week 1 odds have been around since the schedule was released in the early spring and during that time sharp bettors have dictated the movement as they react to offseason news, training camp injuries and preseason results.
And now that the start to the NFL season is finally here, the betting public is now having its say with the Week 1 lines. We talk to Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, about the late line moves heading into kickoff Sunday:
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -2.5, Move: Pick, Move: -1.5
Oddsmakers could blindly set every AFC North matchup between the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers at a pick’em and they wouldn’t likely be too far off.
Books opened with Baltimore as a 2.5-point favorite back in April but with all the drama going on with Ravens RB Ray Rice, the line shrunk to a pick before Baltimore posted a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS preseason. Since then, money has returned to the Ravens, who are currently 1.5-point chalk for Week 1.
“This one has pretty even action, outside of some teasers on Cincinnati,” Bogdanovich tells Covers. “It’s one of the nicest games and a critical division game for both teams.”
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -6.5, Move: -4.5, Move: -3
The Titans have been one of the sexy sleeper picks spewing from the mouths of football talking heads this offseason. Tennessee opened as a near touchdown underdog but has drawn money all summer, sinking this spread as low as a field goal at some markets.
“It’s been a big move, that’s for sure. We opened 6.5 and now we’re down to -3, -3.5. But I don’t get this move at all,” says Bogdanovich. “I don’t think Tennessee upgraded themselves that much this season. We expected the pro money (on the Titans) and moved this one down.”
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -5, Move: -6, Move: -5, Move: -7
This line has bounced around as much as two points since opening. Early action took the Steelers at home, looking to avoid another slow start to the schedule. Then, the Johnny Manziel craze trimmed the spread a touch, with hopes the former Heisman winner would be under center in Week 1.
But since sitting “Johnny Football” for Brian Hoyer Sunday, and losing WR Josh Gordon to a year-long suspension, money has pushed this spread all the way to a touchdown. Bogdanovich, however, expects that is as high as it will go.
“I think it will bounce between 6.5 and 7. It’s all on Pittsburgh right now,” he says.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys – Open: +3.5, Move: +5.5, Move: +4
This 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff headlines the Week 1 afternoon games with two of the most popular NFL teams butting heads in “Jerry’s World”. Bookmakers opened Dallas as a home underdog, tagging the spread with a half-point hook.
A season-ending injury to star LB Sean Lee and questions surrounding QB Tony Romo’s surgically-repaired spine forced bettors to fade the Cowboys all summer long, boosting the line two points. However, a poor preseason and controversy on defense for the 49ers has walked this spread as low as -4 San Francisco.
“This will be one of the biggest handles of the day, no question,” notes Bogdanovich, who says the popularity of both teams – and their recent issues – will even out the action. “A lot of our books are in Northern Nevada and they’ll all see San Fran action and Dallas, despite not winning much in recent years, are always very popular.”
The total for this game opened 48.5 and has since climbed as high as 52 points. Bogdanovich believes this could be one of the most high-scoring games of Week 1.
“Every bet will be on the Over,” he says. “I do think that of all the games Sunday, this could be the most entertaining.”
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos – Open: -7, Move: -7.5
The Broncos opened as touchdown favorites for the first Sunday Night Football game of the season, and bettors expect Denver to brush the dust off from its Super Bowl debacle and have bumped this spread a half point over the key number.
The total for this primetime showdown opened at 55 points and has risen as high as 56 heading into the weekend.
“The total is about as high as you can get in the NFL,” says Bogdanovich. “We’re going to need the Colts and the Under, especially when it comes to the Broncos. They were a dominating team last year and put up big number… People love betting Denver.”
NFL Week 1 odds have been around since the schedule was released in the early spring and during that time sharp bettors have dictated the movement as they react to offseason news, training camp injuries and preseason results.
And now that the start to the NFL season is finally here, the betting public is now having its say with the Week 1 lines. We talk to Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, about the late line moves heading into kickoff Sunday:
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -2.5, Move: Pick, Move: -1.5
Oddsmakers could blindly set every AFC North matchup between the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers at a pick’em and they wouldn’t likely be too far off.
Books opened with Baltimore as a 2.5-point favorite back in April but with all the drama going on with Ravens RB Ray Rice, the line shrunk to a pick before Baltimore posted a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS preseason. Since then, money has returned to the Ravens, who are currently 1.5-point chalk for Week 1.
“This one has pretty even action, outside of some teasers on Cincinnati,” Bogdanovich tells Covers. “It’s one of the nicest games and a critical division game for both teams.”
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -6.5, Move: -4.5, Move: -3
The Titans have been one of the sexy sleeper picks spewing from the mouths of football talking heads this offseason. Tennessee opened as a near touchdown underdog but has drawn money all summer, sinking this spread as low as a field goal at some markets.
“It’s been a big move, that’s for sure. We opened 6.5 and now we’re down to -3, -3.5. But I don’t get this move at all,” says Bogdanovich. “I don’t think Tennessee upgraded themselves that much this season. We expected the pro money (on the Titans) and moved this one down.”
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -5, Move: -6, Move: -5, Move: -7
This line has bounced around as much as two points since opening. Early action took the Steelers at home, looking to avoid another slow start to the schedule. Then, the Johnny Manziel craze trimmed the spread a touch, with hopes the former Heisman winner would be under center in Week 1.
But since sitting “Johnny Football” for Brian Hoyer Sunday, and losing WR Josh Gordon to a year-long suspension, money has pushed this spread all the way to a touchdown. Bogdanovich, however, expects that is as high as it will go.
“I think it will bounce between 6.5 and 7. It’s all on Pittsburgh right now,” he says.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys – Open: +3.5, Move: +5.5, Move: +4
This 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff headlines the Week 1 afternoon games with two of the most popular NFL teams butting heads in “Jerry’s World”. Bookmakers opened Dallas as a home underdog, tagging the spread with a half-point hook.
A season-ending injury to star LB Sean Lee and questions surrounding QB Tony Romo’s surgically-repaired spine forced bettors to fade the Cowboys all summer long, boosting the line two points. However, a poor preseason and controversy on defense for the 49ers has walked this spread as low as -4 San Francisco.
“This will be one of the biggest handles of the day, no question,” notes Bogdanovich, who says the popularity of both teams – and their recent issues – will even out the action. “A lot of our books are in Northern Nevada and they’ll all see San Fran action and Dallas, despite not winning much in recent years, are always very popular.”
The total for this game opened 48.5 and has since climbed as high as 52 points. Bogdanovich believes this could be one of the most high-scoring games of Week 1.
“Every bet will be on the Over,” he says. “I do think that of all the games Sunday, this could be the most entertaining.”
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos – Open: -7, Move: -7.5
The Broncos opened as touchdown favorites for the first Sunday Night Football game of the season, and bettors expect Denver to brush the dust off from its Super Bowl debacle and have bumped this spread a half point over the key number.
The total for this primetime showdown opened at 55 points and has risen as high as 56 heading into the weekend.
“The total is about as high as you can get in the NFL,” says Bogdanovich. “We’re going to need the Colts and the Under, especially when it comes to the Broncos. They were a dominating team last year and put up big number… People love betting Denver.”
NFL
Sunday, September 7
Chance of rain at Raymond James Stadium Sunday
Weather could play a factor in Tampa Bay as weather forecasts are calling for a 42 percent possibility of rain, which could play a role in the season opener between the Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers.
WeatherUnderground's forecast has temperatures in the mid-80s with wind blowing across the field at around 6 mph.
At the time of writing, oddsmakers have the Bucs as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 37.5 for the NFC South matchup.
Sunday, September 7
Chance of rain at Raymond James Stadium Sunday
Weather could play a factor in Tampa Bay as weather forecasts are calling for a 42 percent possibility of rain, which could play a role in the season opener between the Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers.
WeatherUnderground's forecast has temperatures in the mid-80s with wind blowing across the field at around 6 mph.
At the time of writing, oddsmakers have the Bucs as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 37.5 for the NFC South matchup.
NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 1
Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 1:
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+3, 51)
Saints’ rushing attack vs. Falcons’ run defense
When you think of the Saints you aren’t automatically drawn to thoughts of smashmouth football and a run-heavy playbook. However, with New Orleans working in a group of new receivers in 2014, head coach Sean Payton will look to running backs Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, and Pierre Thomas to tread water until Drew Brees and his new targets cook up some chemistry. Ingram has a lot of buzz around him this summer and was named the team’s Preseason Offensive MVP.
You’d think less Brees would be a good thing for the Falcons defense. And it is. But Atlanta was exposed on the ground last season, giving up 135.8 rushing yards per game – second worst in the NFL. The Falcons’ stop unit is extremely young with five second-year players starting but did spend some money up front, trying to plug those holes against the run. New Orleans’ RBs will put those new faces to the test early and often Sunday afternoon.
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-3.5, 42.5)
Vikings’ new defense vs. Rams’ offensive line
The Rams offensive line had one mission this season: Keep Sam Bradford healthy. They didn’t even make it out of the preseason, with Bradford suffering another ACL tear that leaves St. Louis starting backup Shaun Hill under center in Week 1. St. Louis’ pass protection is a mess. Left tackle Jake Long isn’t the same player since his own ACL injury, guard Roger Saffold has been slowed by ailments all summer, and first-round pick Greg Robinson hasn’t found his footing yet in the pros.
That iffy pass protection will be tested by the Vikings’ new-look defense under head coach Mike Zimmer, who is known for his aggressive blitz packages. Minnesota has already seen a major uptick on that side of the ball since Zimmer took over. The Vikings finished last in scoring defense in 2013, allowing 30 points per game. They gave up just 12.3 points per game in their undefeated preseason run – No. 2 in the NFL. Sure, those are only exhibition results but there’s excitement surrounding this stop unit in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (-7, 47.5)
Bills’ short secondary vs. Bears’ big receivers
The Bears’ receiving corps could be mistaken for members of the Chicago Bulls. Dynamic wideout combo Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery stand 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-3 respectively. Add to those weapons TEs Martellus Bennett (6-foot-6) and Dante Rosario (6-foot-3), along with pass-catching RB Matt Forte (6-foot-2, tall for a running back), and Da Bears have one hell of a five-on-five hoops lineup.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, these teams aren’t playing charity pick-up on the hallowed Windy City blacktop. It’s football on Sunday. The Bills will have to look up – way up – when Chicago head coach Marc Trestman unleashes his towers of power. Buffalo’s tallest member of the secondary is corner Stephon Gilmore, who measures up at 6-foot-1. Gilmore is one of the more physical pass defenders but has been limited by a groin injury. Five-foot-10 corner Leodis McKelvin is also on the mend after undergoing hip surgery this offseason.
"(Chicago’s WRs are) tall, they’re physical and they can go get the ball. It’s going to be a real good test for us corners," McKelvin told The Buffalo News.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 55)
Colts’ Denver domination vs. Broncos’ kicker conundrum
This Sunday Night Football matchup will likely play banker to most books on the first Sunday of the season, meaning there’s going to be a ton of money funneling into this primetime finale. And that loot will likely ride on the foot of Broncos seat-filler Brandon McManus, who is holding down the kicker spot with stud leg Matt Prater serving a four-game suspension. McManus has been collecting dust since booting for Temple in 2012 and could face some less than ideal kicking conditions at Mile High (chance of thunderstorms Sunday night).
The Colts have won and covered in six-straight meetings with the Broncos, including a tight 39-33 victory at home last season. Indianapolis’ defense was able to get to Peyton Manning four times in that game, forced four fumbles – recovering two – and grabbed one interception, leaving Prater to be called upon for two field goals. Colts opponents connected on just 78.79 percent of their field goal attempts in 2013 – a strange but convenient stat – and blocked a field goal for a 61-yard TD return in their win over Seattle. Indianapolis is known for nail bitters and with that half-point hook on the spread, a single missed field goal from McManus could spell doom for Denver backers.
Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 1:
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+3, 51)
Saints’ rushing attack vs. Falcons’ run defense
When you think of the Saints you aren’t automatically drawn to thoughts of smashmouth football and a run-heavy playbook. However, with New Orleans working in a group of new receivers in 2014, head coach Sean Payton will look to running backs Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, and Pierre Thomas to tread water until Drew Brees and his new targets cook up some chemistry. Ingram has a lot of buzz around him this summer and was named the team’s Preseason Offensive MVP.
You’d think less Brees would be a good thing for the Falcons defense. And it is. But Atlanta was exposed on the ground last season, giving up 135.8 rushing yards per game – second worst in the NFL. The Falcons’ stop unit is extremely young with five second-year players starting but did spend some money up front, trying to plug those holes against the run. New Orleans’ RBs will put those new faces to the test early and often Sunday afternoon.
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-3.5, 42.5)
Vikings’ new defense vs. Rams’ offensive line
The Rams offensive line had one mission this season: Keep Sam Bradford healthy. They didn’t even make it out of the preseason, with Bradford suffering another ACL tear that leaves St. Louis starting backup Shaun Hill under center in Week 1. St. Louis’ pass protection is a mess. Left tackle Jake Long isn’t the same player since his own ACL injury, guard Roger Saffold has been slowed by ailments all summer, and first-round pick Greg Robinson hasn’t found his footing yet in the pros.
That iffy pass protection will be tested by the Vikings’ new-look defense under head coach Mike Zimmer, who is known for his aggressive blitz packages. Minnesota has already seen a major uptick on that side of the ball since Zimmer took over. The Vikings finished last in scoring defense in 2013, allowing 30 points per game. They gave up just 12.3 points per game in their undefeated preseason run – No. 2 in the NFL. Sure, those are only exhibition results but there’s excitement surrounding this stop unit in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (-7, 47.5)
Bills’ short secondary vs. Bears’ big receivers
The Bears’ receiving corps could be mistaken for members of the Chicago Bulls. Dynamic wideout combo Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery stand 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-3 respectively. Add to those weapons TEs Martellus Bennett (6-foot-6) and Dante Rosario (6-foot-3), along with pass-catching RB Matt Forte (6-foot-2, tall for a running back), and Da Bears have one hell of a five-on-five hoops lineup.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, these teams aren’t playing charity pick-up on the hallowed Windy City blacktop. It’s football on Sunday. The Bills will have to look up – way up – when Chicago head coach Marc Trestman unleashes his towers of power. Buffalo’s tallest member of the secondary is corner Stephon Gilmore, who measures up at 6-foot-1. Gilmore is one of the more physical pass defenders but has been limited by a groin injury. Five-foot-10 corner Leodis McKelvin is also on the mend after undergoing hip surgery this offseason.
"(Chicago’s WRs are) tall, they’re physical and they can go get the ball. It’s going to be a real good test for us corners," McKelvin told The Buffalo News.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 55)
Colts’ Denver domination vs. Broncos’ kicker conundrum
This Sunday Night Football matchup will likely play banker to most books on the first Sunday of the season, meaning there’s going to be a ton of money funneling into this primetime finale. And that loot will likely ride on the foot of Broncos seat-filler Brandon McManus, who is holding down the kicker spot with stud leg Matt Prater serving a four-game suspension. McManus has been collecting dust since booting for Temple in 2012 and could face some less than ideal kicking conditions at Mile High (chance of thunderstorms Sunday night).
The Colts have won and covered in six-straight meetings with the Broncos, including a tight 39-33 victory at home last season. Indianapolis’ defense was able to get to Peyton Manning four times in that game, forced four fumbles – recovering two – and grabbed one interception, leaving Prater to be called upon for two field goals. Colts opponents connected on just 78.79 percent of their field goal attempts in 2013 – a strange but convenient stat – and blocked a field goal for a 61-yard TD return in their win over Seattle. Indianapolis is known for nail bitters and with that half-point hook on the spread, a single missed field goal from McManus could spell doom for Denver backers.
NFL
Sunday, September 7
Rams historically bad ATS in recent season openers
The St. Louis Rams have been historically bad covering the spread in recent years. In their last seven season opening games, the Rams are just 1-6 ATS.
St. Louis hosts Minnesota in Week 1 action Sunday. The Rams are currently -3.5 faves with a total of 43 for the matchup.
Saints surprisingly strong under play
It is well known the New Orleans Saints have a high-powered offense, what you might not know is that despite this the Saints had become a strong under play at the end of last season.
The under is 8-1 in the Saints last nine games overall and 6-0 in the Saints last six road games. The under is also 12-2 in their last 14 against NFC opponents.
Sunday they open their season at the Atlanta Falcons where the total is currently sitting at 52.
Steelers come to play vs. division foes
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers early troubles last season, they ended the season strong, especially against division foes.
The Steelers finished the season 7-1 against the spread and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the AFC North.
Pittsburgh are currently favored by a touchdown when they host the Cleveland Browns in their season opener.
Eagles cashing majority of Under tickets at home
The Philadelphia Eagles were a solid bet for Under bettors at Lincoln Financial Field last season, as six out of their eight home games went under the total. in the 2013-14 season.
Philly is currently -10.5 home faves for their season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. The total for the game is presently 51.5.
Raiders looks to reverse ATS trend vs. AFC
The Oakland Raiders brought in a horde of veteran free agents and turn to rookie quarterback Derek Carr to reverse the Black and Silver's woes.
The Raiders are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games against the AFC and are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.
Oakland travels across the country to take on the New York Jets Sunday and are currently 5-point road dogs.
Bears look to turn around ATS fortunes at home
For a team that didn't have a losing season last season the Chicago Bears had the worst record against the spread and the worst part is they haven't been able to get the job done at Solider Field.
The Bears, who went just 4-11-1 ATS last season, are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Their 2014 season opens Sunday with the Buffalo Bills coming to town. The Bears are currently listed at -7.
Home team covering when these teams meet
AFC North Rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have had a lot of closely contested battles in recent years, but it's the home team that's been covering for bettors when the two teams have gotten together as of late.
The home club is a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four meetings. Baltimore - who has home field advantage for the Week 1 match - is currently a -2 fave with a total of 42.5.
Texans coming off dismal year ATS at home
The Houston Texans posted some ugly numbers against the spread at home last season. In eight games at Reliant Stadium in 2013-14, the Texans went 1-7 ATS.
Houston kicks off the 2014-15 NFL season against the Washington Redskins at home Sunday. The Texans are presently -3 faves with a total of 44.5.
Chiefs on a bit of an over run
The Kansas City Chiefs were top five defense in points allowed, but despite this ended last season on a solid over run.
The over is 6-1 in the Chiefs last seven games overall and is 5-1 in their last six against the AFC.
The total for the Chiefs first game against the Tennessee Titans Sunday is currently at 44.
Under sizzling when Pats/Dolphins meet
When the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins have gotten together recently, it's been bettors backing the Under that have been profiting.
The Under is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two teams.
New England is currently -4 road faves with a total of 46.5 for the game.
Chance of thunderstoms, strong wind in Miami
The New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East showdown to begin the season and there could be some weather in the forecast that could affect your bets for this matchup.
There are thunderstorms expected in the area to go along with a 40 percent chance of rain. There will also be a 12 mile per hour wind blowing towards the north west end zone.
The Patriots are currently four-point road favorites, with a total sitting at 46.5.
Sunday, September 7
Rams historically bad ATS in recent season openers
The St. Louis Rams have been historically bad covering the spread in recent years. In their last seven season opening games, the Rams are just 1-6 ATS.
St. Louis hosts Minnesota in Week 1 action Sunday. The Rams are currently -3.5 faves with a total of 43 for the matchup.
Saints surprisingly strong under play
It is well known the New Orleans Saints have a high-powered offense, what you might not know is that despite this the Saints had become a strong under play at the end of last season.
The under is 8-1 in the Saints last nine games overall and 6-0 in the Saints last six road games. The under is also 12-2 in their last 14 against NFC opponents.
Sunday they open their season at the Atlanta Falcons where the total is currently sitting at 52.
Steelers come to play vs. division foes
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers early troubles last season, they ended the season strong, especially against division foes.
The Steelers finished the season 7-1 against the spread and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the AFC North.
Pittsburgh are currently favored by a touchdown when they host the Cleveland Browns in their season opener.
Eagles cashing majority of Under tickets at home
The Philadelphia Eagles were a solid bet for Under bettors at Lincoln Financial Field last season, as six out of their eight home games went under the total. in the 2013-14 season.
Philly is currently -10.5 home faves for their season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. The total for the game is presently 51.5.
Raiders looks to reverse ATS trend vs. AFC
The Oakland Raiders brought in a horde of veteran free agents and turn to rookie quarterback Derek Carr to reverse the Black and Silver's woes.
The Raiders are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games against the AFC and are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.
Oakland travels across the country to take on the New York Jets Sunday and are currently 5-point road dogs.
Bears look to turn around ATS fortunes at home
For a team that didn't have a losing season last season the Chicago Bears had the worst record against the spread and the worst part is they haven't been able to get the job done at Solider Field.
The Bears, who went just 4-11-1 ATS last season, are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Their 2014 season opens Sunday with the Buffalo Bills coming to town. The Bears are currently listed at -7.
Home team covering when these teams meet
AFC North Rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have had a lot of closely contested battles in recent years, but it's the home team that's been covering for bettors when the two teams have gotten together as of late.
The home club is a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four meetings. Baltimore - who has home field advantage for the Week 1 match - is currently a -2 fave with a total of 42.5.
Texans coming off dismal year ATS at home
The Houston Texans posted some ugly numbers against the spread at home last season. In eight games at Reliant Stadium in 2013-14, the Texans went 1-7 ATS.
Houston kicks off the 2014-15 NFL season against the Washington Redskins at home Sunday. The Texans are presently -3 faves with a total of 44.5.
Chiefs on a bit of an over run
The Kansas City Chiefs were top five defense in points allowed, but despite this ended last season on a solid over run.
The over is 6-1 in the Chiefs last seven games overall and is 5-1 in their last six against the AFC.
The total for the Chiefs first game against the Tennessee Titans Sunday is currently at 44.
Under sizzling when Pats/Dolphins meet
When the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins have gotten together recently, it's been bettors backing the Under that have been profiting.
The Under is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two teams.
New England is currently -4 road faves with a total of 46.5 for the game.
Chance of thunderstoms, strong wind in Miami
The New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East showdown to begin the season and there could be some weather in the forecast that could affect your bets for this matchup.
There are thunderstorms expected in the area to go along with a 40 percent chance of rain. There will also be a 12 mile per hour wind blowing towards the north west end zone.
The Patriots are currently four-point road favorites, with a total sitting at 46.5.
REPORT FROM VEGAS
No sports book director in Las Vegas knows how the Week 1 NFL results will end up, but one thing is certain for all: the Broncos-Colts nightcap has the potential to make or break their day.
“This thing is going to be a monster,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “We’ve already got a ton of risk on the Broncos, which is telling because these 5 p.m. (PT) games usually don’t start to build the type of action we’re already seeing until results from the first two wave of games are in. I don’t see the betting patterns changing from now to 4 p.m. on the game, so I may as well start protecting myself now and make the move to minus-8 and see if there are any takers” (lines range from Broncos -7.5 to -8.5 on Sunday morning).
At 6:30 a.m. (PT) Sunday morning, as Osborne was reviewing some of his biggest risk on the day with us, he moved the Broncos from -7.5 to -8 because of mounting risk on the favorite. No large straight bets, just the knowledge of his clientele’s betting patterns and the type of teams the majority of them like to support. Based on the way the rest of NFL card stacks up, his entire win on the day may be tied to how the Colts fare.
“Most of these Sunday night games are extremely volatile for us, and when you put in a big public team like the Broncos, it goes through the roof,” said Osborne. “If bettors have a great day, this is the type of game that can really carry us out, and if it’s us that have a great day to start with, this is the type of game where we could give much of the winnings back. Either way, we‘ll be needing the Colts pretty good.”
The one positive for Osborne is that most of his parlay and teaser risk on the Broncos isn’t tied to the OVER, where 13-to-5 payout odds on a parlay can really shrink the day’s profit margin.
“We’re pretty even on the total, both in straight bets and parlays, and we haven’t had to do too much. Since opening at 56 way back when (April), we’re sitting at 55.5. But we do know the majority that bet an hour before kickoff will be taking that combination of Broncos and OVER.”
That combination hit in just six of the Broncos 16 regular season games last year.
Before Osborne begins his classic style of maneuvering on the late game – when he knows exact amounts he has to shave off to limit risk – he's got to traverse through the first 12 games of the day, and there are plenty of land minds he hopes his book can avoid.
“I can tell you right off the top our two biggest losers would be the Saints (-3) and Patriots (-4), and then right after that, it’s the Bears (-7), Steelers (-7), Eagles (-10.5) and Chiefs (-3). All of those are big parlay and teaser games that the majority of our wagering public have today.”
You’ll notice the trend there – all favorites; betting the chalk is a national pastime of the majority of bettors. Should all those games come through for bettors, the risk might get so high that not even the Colts could save the day with a cover.
No sports book director in Las Vegas knows how the Week 1 NFL results will end up, but one thing is certain for all: the Broncos-Colts nightcap has the potential to make or break their day.
“This thing is going to be a monster,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “We’ve already got a ton of risk on the Broncos, which is telling because these 5 p.m. (PT) games usually don’t start to build the type of action we’re already seeing until results from the first two wave of games are in. I don’t see the betting patterns changing from now to 4 p.m. on the game, so I may as well start protecting myself now and make the move to minus-8 and see if there are any takers” (lines range from Broncos -7.5 to -8.5 on Sunday morning).
At 6:30 a.m. (PT) Sunday morning, as Osborne was reviewing some of his biggest risk on the day with us, he moved the Broncos from -7.5 to -8 because of mounting risk on the favorite. No large straight bets, just the knowledge of his clientele’s betting patterns and the type of teams the majority of them like to support. Based on the way the rest of NFL card stacks up, his entire win on the day may be tied to how the Colts fare.
“Most of these Sunday night games are extremely volatile for us, and when you put in a big public team like the Broncos, it goes through the roof,” said Osborne. “If bettors have a great day, this is the type of game that can really carry us out, and if it’s us that have a great day to start with, this is the type of game where we could give much of the winnings back. Either way, we‘ll be needing the Colts pretty good.”
The one positive for Osborne is that most of his parlay and teaser risk on the Broncos isn’t tied to the OVER, where 13-to-5 payout odds on a parlay can really shrink the day’s profit margin.
“We’re pretty even on the total, both in straight bets and parlays, and we haven’t had to do too much. Since opening at 56 way back when (April), we’re sitting at 55.5. But we do know the majority that bet an hour before kickoff will be taking that combination of Broncos and OVER.”
That combination hit in just six of the Broncos 16 regular season games last year.
Before Osborne begins his classic style of maneuvering on the late game – when he knows exact amounts he has to shave off to limit risk – he's got to traverse through the first 12 games of the day, and there are plenty of land minds he hopes his book can avoid.
“I can tell you right off the top our two biggest losers would be the Saints (-3) and Patriots (-4), and then right after that, it’s the Bears (-7), Steelers (-7), Eagles (-10.5) and Chiefs (-3). All of those are big parlay and teaser games that the majority of our wagering public have today.”
You’ll notice the trend there – all favorites; betting the chalk is a national pastime of the majority of bettors. Should all those games come through for bettors, the risk might get so high that not even the Colts could save the day with a cover.
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****........................................0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................1 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................0 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0
OVERALL OPINION AND RATED GAMES:
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50
Sunday, September 7
Game Score Status Pick Amount
New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta +3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Atlanta - Over 51 500
Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis -2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
St. Louis - Under 43.5 500
Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +5.5 500
Pittsburgh - Under 41.5 500
Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +10 500
Philadelphia - Over 49 500
Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Oakland +6.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
N.Y. Jets - Under 41 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati +1 500
Baltimore - Under 43.5 500
Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +7 500
Chicago - Over 47 500
Washington - 1:00 PM ET Houston -3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Houston - Over 43.5 500
Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee +3 500 LIGHTS OUT
Kansas City - Over 44.5 500
New England - 1:00 PM ET Miami +3.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Miami - Under 46.5 500
Carolina - 4:25 PM ET Tampa Bay -3.5 500
Tampa Bay - Under 38 500
San Francisco - 4:25 PM ET San Francisco -3.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Dallas - Over 50 500
*****........................................0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................1 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................0 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0
OVERALL OPINION AND RATED GAMES:
Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50
Sunday, September 7
Game Score Status Pick Amount
New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta +3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Atlanta - Over 51 500
Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis -2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
St. Louis - Under 43.5 500
Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +5.5 500
Pittsburgh - Under 41.5 500
Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +10 500
Philadelphia - Over 49 500
Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Oakland +6.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
N.Y. Jets - Under 41 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati +1 500
Baltimore - Under 43.5 500
Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +7 500
Chicago - Over 47 500
Washington - 1:00 PM ET Houston -3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Houston - Over 43.5 500
Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee +3 500 LIGHTS OUT
Kansas City - Over 44.5 500
New England - 1:00 PM ET Miami +3.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Miami - Under 46.5 500
Carolina - 4:25 PM ET Tampa Bay -3.5 500
Tampa Bay - Under 38 500
San Francisco - 4:25 PM ET San Francisco -3.5 500 LIGHTS OUT
Dallas - Over 50 500
NFL Rated Games For Sept.
*****........................................0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT RATED PLAYS:
Indianapolis - 8:30 PM ET Indianapolis +8.5 500 *****
Denver - Under 53 500 *****
*****........................................0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS..............................2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAYS...............................2 - 0
LIGHTS OUT..................................3 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT RATED PLAYS:
Indianapolis - 8:30 PM ET Indianapolis +8.5 500 *****
Denver - Under 53 500 *****
