NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 10
Thursday's game
Panthers (1-7) @ Bears (2-7)
— Carolina is 0-4 SU/ATS) on road this year, losing by 14-10-18-21.
— Last four games, Panthers were outscored 76-33 in first half.
— In two post-bye games, Panthers scored 2 TD’s on 18 drives.
— Last week, Young threw two pick-6’s vs Colts.
— In Young’s six starts. Carolina averaged 5+ yards/pass attempt once.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started.
— Carolina’s only win was 15-13; they allowed 20+ points in their losses.
— Carolina is 6-12 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog (0-4 TY).
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Panthers have been outscored 118-71 in second half of games.
— Carolina is 8-17-1 ATS in last 26 games following a loss.
— NFC South teams are 9-16-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-3. Opponents’ team total: over 5-3
— Chicago lost three of last four games, scoring 13-13-17 in losses.
— Bears are +5 in turnovers in wins, minus-12 in losses.
— Chicago turned ball over 5 times last week (minus-5)
— Chicago scored 40-30 points in its wins; they’re 0-7 otherwise.
— In Bagent’s three starts, Bears were 20-39 on third down.
— For season, Bears have been outscored 132-83 in second half.
— last 2+ years, Bears are 11-32 SU/16-25-2 ATS.
— Chicago is 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games as home favorites (0-1 TY).
— Chicago is 17-24-3 ATS in last 44 games coming off a loss.
— Three of their four games stayed under the total.
— NFC North favorites are 6-3 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-3
— Bears won five of last six series games.
— Panthers are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Chicago.
— Underdogs covered four of last five meetings.
— Under is 5-4-1 in last ten series games.
Sunday’s games
Colts (4-5) vs Patriots (2-7) (@ Frankfurt, Germany)
— Colts allowed 20 or less points in wins, 29+ in losses.
— Indianapolis lost three of its last four games.
— Backup QB Minshew is 10-19 as an NFL starter, 2-3 TY.
— Colts won/covered three of their four road games TY.
— Indy has scored 20+ points in all nine games.
— Colts are 10-6 ATS last 16 games as an underdog away from home.
— Colts are 16-17 ATS in last 33 games coming off win.
— Colts are 8-12 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 6-3 in Indy’s games this season.
— AFC South teams are 14-9 ATS outside the division.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 7-1-1. Opponents’ team total: over 5-4
— Patriots lost five of their last six games (1-5 ATS).
— Patriots were outscored 92-40 in first half of those games.
— New England is minus-5 in turnovers this year.
— NE is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.
— Since Brady left, NE is 27-32 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— In his career, Belichick is 82-97 without Brady.
— Mac Jones is 18-23 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last six games, Patriots were outgained by 102.2 yards/game.
— Patriots are 14-16-1 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 6-2-1 in New England games this season.
— AFC East teams are 9-12 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-1. Opponents’ team total: 6-3 over
— New England won seven of last eight series games.
— Favorites covered last three meetings.
— Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.
Browns (5-3) @ Ravens (7-2)
— Browns are 3-1 since their bye week.
— Last four weeks, Cleveland ran ball for 144.5 yards/game.
— Browns are 1-9-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
— Browns are 4-0 giving up less than 24 points, 1-3 allowing 24+.
— Cleveland is 1-2 SU/0-2-1 ATS in its road games.
— Cleveland is 3-10 ATS in last 13 AFC North road games.
— Cleveland is 5-7-1 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Opponents have converted only 27-104 third down plays.
— Under is 4-2 in last six Cleveland games.
— Watson is 36-31 as an NFL starter, 7-4 with Cleveland.
— NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 11-11 ATS this year.
— Team total: over 6-1-1. Opponents’ team total: under 5-3
— Ravens won last four games, last three by a combined 106-33.
— Last six games, Ravens outscored foes 108-19 in first half.
— Baltimore is 6-11 ATS in last 17 games as home favorite (3-1 TY)
— Ravens scored 24+ points in its wins, 19-10 in losses.
— Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in last six AFC North home games.
— Ravens are 10-14 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore is minus-5 in TO’s in its losses, +4 in wins.
— Lamar Jackson is 53-21 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 6-3 in Baltimore games this season.
— Team total: over 6-3. Opponents’ team total: under 6-2-1
— Ravens (+3) won 28-3 in Cleveland in Week 4
— That was game #3 QB Thompson-Robinson was Browns’ QB.
— Ravens won five of last seven series games.
— Browns are 8-5 ATS in last 13 visits to Baltimore.
— Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Texans (4-4) @ Bengals (5-3)
— Houston won four of its last six games (4-2 ATS)
— Houston led five of its last six games at halftime.
— Three of their last four games were decided by exactly two points.
— Texans are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS on road this year.
— Houston is 7-4-1 ATS in last 12 games as a road underdog.
— Texans QB Stroud threw for 470 yards, 5 TD’s last week.
— Houston is 19-16-1 in last 26 games coming off a win.
— Stroud is 4-4 as an NFL starter.
— First five games, Texans were +5 in turnovers; last three games, minus-2
— AFC South teams are 14-9 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 4-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-2
— Bengals won/covered last four games, scoring 26.5 ppg.
— Last four games, Bengals are +7 in turnovers. (10-3)
— Burrow (calf) is moving around lot better than he was before their bye.
— Cincinnati is 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.
— Bengals are 11-2 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
— Last two games, Cincy averaged 7.6/7.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Last two games. Cincy had seven TD’s on 18 drives.
— Bengals have a Thursday night game at Baltimore next week.
— Under is 5-3 in their games this season.
— Team total: under 6-2. Opponents’ team total: under 5-3
— Teams haven’t met since 2020, once since 2017.
— Texans won seven of last nine series games.
— Houston won/covered last four visits to Cincinnati.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
49ers (5-3) @ Jaguars (6-2)
— 49ers lost last three games, scoring 17-17-17 points.
— SF scored 30-30-30-35-42 points in 5-0 start (4-0-1 ATS).
— 49ers have outscored opponents 95-56 in 2nd half.
— First 5 games, SF ran ball for 156.4 yards/game (108-65-113 last 3 games).
— 49ers are 4-6-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Since 2012, SF is 3-7-1 SU/2-9 ATS in post-bye games.
— last two games, 49ers are minus-4 in turnovers (+8 10/first six games)
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 12-4 as NFL starter.
— NFC West teams are 10-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-4. Opponents’ team total: over 6-2
— Jaguars won/covered their last five games.
— Jacksonville outscored last four opponents 75-19 in first half.
— Jaguars scored 21-23-25-37-31-20 points in wins, 9-17 in losses.
— Jaguars are 10-16 ATS last 26 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Jaguars are 9-3-1 ATS in last 13 post-bye games.
— Under Pederson, Jags are 9-6 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +12 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— AFC South teams are 14-9 ATS outside the division.
— Pederson is 62-50-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 18-24 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Team total: over 4-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 5-3
— San Francisco won/covered last four series games.
— 49ers won 42-10/30-10 in last two visits to Jacksonville.
— Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Saints (5-4) @ Vikings (5-4)
— New Orleans is 4-1 scoring 20+ points, 1-3 scoring less than 20.
— Saints have 10 offensive TD’s on their last 34 drives.
— Last five games, New Orleans is +8 in turnovers.
— Last two games, Saints were 13-26 on third down.
— Last five weeks, Saints outscored foes 61-27 in second half.
— Saints have been outscored 19-12 in last 2:00 of each half.
— NO is 14-8 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog (1-0 TY)
— Saints are 6-12-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
— Under is 7-2 in Saints’ games this season.
— NFC South teams are 9-16 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 6-3. Opponents’ team total: under 5-4
— QB Dobbs came off bench and won game for Vikings LW.
— Dobbs is 1-9 as an NFL starter; he actually practiced this week.
— Minnesota won/covered last four games, scoring 19-22-24-31 points.
— Minnesota has nine takeaways in last four games (+4)
— Vikings are 4-1 when they allow less than 27 points.
— Vikings are 8-8-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win (3-1 TY).
— Minnesota is 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as a road home favorite.
— Vikings ran ball for 146 yards LW, their most this season.
— Under is 7-2 in Minnesota games this season.
— NFC North teams are 11-13-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-4. Opponents’ team total: under 5-3-1
— Vikings won four of last six series games.
— Saints are 2-3-1 ATS last six visits to Minnesota (last one, 2018)
— Over is 4-1-1 in last six series games played here.
Packers (3-5) @ Steelers (5-3)
— Green Bay is 1-4 SU/ATS in its last five games.
— Last five games, Packers were outscored 76-16 in first half.
— Green Bay has ten giveaways in last five games (minus-5).
— Packers are 14-13-2 ATS in last 29 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Green Bay has outscored opponents 48-20 on 1st drive of a half.
— Jordan Love is 3-6 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 12-5-1 ATS in last 18 games as road underdog.
— Green Bay is 1-6 ATS this year in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under is 5-1 in their last six games.
— Packers are 2-7 ATS in last nine games vs AFC opponents.
— Green Bay is 4-7 ATS in last eleven games coming off a win.
— Team total: under 6-2. Opponents’ team total: under 5-3
— Steelers won/covered three of their last four games.
— Steelers are 4-7 ATS in last 11 games as home favorites (1-0 TY)
— Last five games, they were outscored 57-19 in first half.
— Steelers scored 26-23-17-24-20 points in wins, 7-6-10 in losses.
— Pittsburgh has been outgained by 111.1 yards/game this season.
— Last seven games, Steelers have a +9 turnover margin.
— Steelers are 5-2 ATS in last seven games vs NFC opponents.
— Seven of eight Steeler games stayed under the total.
— Pitt is 30-16-1 ATS in last 46 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— QB Pickett is 12-8 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 3-3-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-4
— Steelers won four of last six series games.
— Packers lost 31-28/37-36 in last two visits to Pittsburgh.
— Four of last five meetings went over the total.
Titans (3-5) @ Buccaneers (3-5)
— Titans lost three of their last four games.
— Tennessee is 0-4 SU in true road games, losing by 1-24-7-4 points (1-3 ATS)
— Titans scored 27-27-28 points in wins; they scored 15-3-16-16-16 in losses.
— Last two games, Tennessee converted 9-37 on third down.
— Titans are 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— Tennessee is 16-13-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss (2-1 TY)
— Tennessee is 7-5 ATS last 12 games against NFC opponents.
— Titans are minus-4 in turnovers (5-9) so far this season.
— Levis is 1-1 as an NFL starter.
— AFC South underdogs are 11-6 ATS outside the division.
— Six of their eight games stayed under total.
— Team total: under 5-3. Opponents’ team total: over 4-2-2
— Bucs lost four in row, five of last six games (3-3 ATS).
— Tampa Bay’s last three losses were by 3-6-2 points.
— Bucs have 15 takeaways in eight games (+9 turnovers)
— Bucs ran ball for 102.3 yards/game in wins, 41-46-73-78-81 in losses.
— Tampa Bay is 2-6-1 ATS last nine games as a home favorite.
— Bucs are 8-6-1 in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 6-2 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 6-7 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC teams.
— Mayfield is 35-44 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— NFC South favorites are 3-7-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-1-1
— Tennessee are 5-1 SU/4-0-2 ATS in last six series games.
— Titans split their last two visits to Tampa.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Falcons (4-5) @ Cardinals (1-8)
— Falcons lost three of their last four games (underdogs 4-0 ATS)
— Falcons were 10-18 on third down LW, in Heinicke’s first ’23 start.
— Last six games, Atlanta is minus-9 in turnovers (5-14)
— since 2017, Atlanta is 5-9 ATS as a road favorite (0-1 TY)
— Falcons are 5-9-1 ATS last 15 games coming off a loss.
— Atlanta is 16-22-3 in last 41 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons are 4-5 SU, have led (1-6-2) at halftime once.
— Atlanta has been outscored 107-60 in first half of games.
— Heinicke is 12-13-1 as an NFL starting QB.
— Under is 13-4 in their last 16 games overall, 6-3 TY.
— Team total: under 5-4. Opponents’ team total: over 4-3-2
— QB Murray is expected to make ’23 debut (check status)
— Arizona is 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS last six games (5 losses by 10+ points).
— Cardinals have been outscored 135-47 in 2nd half of games.
— Last seven games, Arizona gave up 27.6 ppg.
— Cardinals have lost 19 of last 22 games SU (8-11 ATS in last 19).
— Three of last four Cardinal games stayed under the total.
— QB Murray is 25-32-1 as an NFL starter; Tune is 0-1.
— Arizona is 11-9 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
— Arizona is 3-1 ATS as a home underdog this year.
— Last five games, Cardinals allowed 24 TD’s on 77 drives.
— All four Arizona home games went over the total.
— NFC West teams are 10-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 5-4. Opponents’ team total: over 5-4
— Atlanta won six of last eight series games.
— Falcons are 0-3 SU/ATS in last three visits to Arizona.
— Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Lions (6-2) @ Chargers (4-4)
— Lions won/covered five of its last six games.
— Lions gave up 37-38 points in their two losses.
— since 2020, Detroit is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite (2-0 TY)
— Lions won/covered three of its four road games TY.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 2-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 29-12-1 ATS overall.
— Detroit is 9-2 ATS in last eleven post-bye games.
— Lions are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC opponents.
— Opponents converted only seven of last 29 third down plays.
— Goff is 62-50-1 as an NFL starter, 18-19-1 with the Lions.
— NFC North teams are 11-13-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 4-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3
— Chargers won last two games, outscoring foes 41-10 in first half.
— Bolts scored 28-24-30-27 points in wins; they’re 0-2 scoring less than 24.
— under Staley, Chargers are 8-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Bolts are 6-3-3 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
— Chargers have ten takeaways (+7) in wins, three (minus-1) in losses.
— Herbert is 29-29 as an NFL starter.
— Opponents are 14-56 on 3rd down in LA wins, 21-46 in losses.
— Under is 5-0-1 in last six Charger games.
— Chargers are 9-5-3 ATS in last 17 games vs AFC opponents.
— AFC West teams are 9-13-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 5-3
— Home team won last four series games.
— Lions lost 33-28/51-14 in last two visits to San Diego (last one, 2015)
— Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Giants (2-7) @ Cowboys (5-3)
— QB’s Jones/Taylor are out; 3rd-stringer DeVito is 17-27/174 passing TY.
— This will be DeVito’s first NFL start (Matt Barkley is backup)
— Giants are 1-6 SU/2-4-1 ATS in last seven games, scoring 10 ppg.
— Giants are 2-1-1 ATS in last four games.
— Last seven games, Giants were outscored 57-22 in 2nd half.
— Giants are averaging only 268.8 yards/game this season.
— Last five games, Giants are +5 in turnovers.
— Giants are 11-4 ATS in last 15 NFC East road games.
— Last five games, Giants have 5 TD’s, 32 3/outs on 76 drives.
— Last time the Giants were this big an underdog was 2007.
— Under is 8-1 in Giant games this season.
— Team total: under 7-2. Opponents’ team total: over 5-4
— Cowboys split their last six games SU.
— Five Dallas wins were by a combined score of 171-50 (34-10 average).
— Dallas scored 16-10-23 points in losses, 40-30-38-20-43 in wins.
— Cowboys are 13-5 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite (3-0 TY)
— Cowboys are +9 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
— Dallas is 10-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
— since 2019, Dallas is 6-1 ATS as a double digit favorite.
— Dallas allowed 400-421 total yards in its losses.
— QB Prescott is 69-42 as an NFL starter.
— NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 11-11 ATS.
— Team total: over 5-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3-1
— Cowboys (-3.5) beat the Giants 40-0 in Week 1 in New Jersey.
— Dallas blocked FG for TD, also had a defensive TD.
— Cowboys won six in row, 12 of last 13 series games.
— Giants are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Dallas.
— Over is 4-0 in Giants’ last four visits here.
Commanders (4-5) @ Seahawks (5-3)
— Washington lost five of last seven games SU (3-3-1 ATS)
— Commanders are 4-0 ATS as a road underdog this year.
— Washington is 1-4 giving up 33+ points, 3-1 if they allow less.
— Last four weeks, Commanders are +3 in turnovers.
— Last two weeks, Commanders are 16-29 on third down.
— Washington is 15-9-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
— Last seven weeks, Commanders were outscored 101-64 in 1st half.
— three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 5-5 as NFL starter.
— NFC East teams are 12-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: 6-3 over. Opponents’ team total: over 6-3
— Seattle split last four games, after a 3-1 start.
— Seahawks scored 37-37-24-20-24 points in wins, 13-13-3 in losses.
— Seahawks were outscored 60-6 in second half of their losses.
— Last two games, Seattle converted 5-24 third down plays.
— Seattle is 15-11 ATS in last 26 games coming off a loss.
— Seattle is 17-22-3 ATS in last 42 games as a home favorite (2-1-1 TY).
— Geno Smith is 27-32 as an NFL starter, 15-14 with Seattle.
— Seattle is 21-22 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— NFC West teams are 10-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Under is 4-1 in Seattle’s last five games.
— Team total: under 5-3. Opponents’ team total: over 4-3-1
— Washington won four of last five meetings (wins by 2-3-6-3 points)
— Commanders are 3-2-1 ATS in last six visits to Seattle.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Jets (4-4) @ Raiders (4-5)
— Short week, long travel for Gang Green after Monday’s home loss.
— Jets won three of last four games, are 3-1-1 ATS in last five
— Jets scored 22-31-20-13 points in wins, 10-10-20-6 in losses.
— Jets have been outscored 108-55 in first half of games.
— Jets gained 4.7/5.0/3.4/5.6/5.8/4.1/4.8/3.6 yards/pass attempt- not good.
— Jets split their first two true road games this year (over 2-0)
— Under Saleh, Jets are 7-9 ATS as a road underdog
— Last five games, Jets converted 18-91 third down plays.
— Jets have scored eight TD’s, have 32 3/outs on 90 drives.
— Wilson is 11-18 as an NFL starter.
— Jets are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Team total: under 4-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-2
— Las Vegas won last three home games, giving up 13-17-6 points.
— Home team won Raiders’ last six games.
— Last two games, Raiders have five takeaways (+4).
— Last three games, Las Vegas is 9-32 on third down.
— Raiders won three of their four home games SU TY.
— Raiders are 7-3 in last ten games as a home favorite.
— Under is 7-2 in Raider games this season.
— Raiders are 4-6 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
— Last two games, WR Adams caught only five passes for 45 yards.
— AFC West teams are 9-13-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
— Raiders won three of last four series games.
— Jets were 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Oakland (last one, 2017)
— Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Monday’s game
Broncos (3-5) @ Bills (5-3)
— Broncos won last two games, giving up 17-9 points.
— Last four games, Denver ran ball for 138 yards/game.
— Denver is 4-8 ATS in its last dozen road games (0-3 TY)
— Broncos led five of its eight games at halftime.
— Last six games, Denver was outscored 33-12 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Last six weeks, Broncos were outgained by 140.5 yards/game.
— Denver is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games on artificial turf (0-0 TY)
— Broncos are 10-3 ATS in last 13 post-bye games.
— Last three Bronco games stayed under the total.
— Russell Wilson is 120-76-1 as an NFL starter, 7-16 with Denver.
— Team total: under 5-3. Opponents’ team total: over 4-4
— Buffalo lost three of its last five games (0-5 ATS) SU.
— Bills are 5-0 giving up 20 or less points, 0-4 giving up more than 20.
— Bills have converted 56-113 third down plays this year.
— Bills are 14-10-1 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.
— Buffalo outscored last eight foes 122-53 in second half.
— Josh Allen is 52-33 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
— Last four games, Buffalo has a minus-6 turnover ratio.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— AFC East favorites are 5-5 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-4. Opponents’ team total: under 5-3-1
— Buffalo is 5-1 SU/6-0 ATS in last six series games.
— Broncos are 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS in last four trips to Western NY.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.