NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 9
Thursday’s game
Titans (3-4) @ Steelers (4-3)
— Rookie QB Levis threw for 238 yards, 4 TD’s, in his first NFL start.
— Tennessee is 0-3 SU in true road games, losing by 1-24-7 points (1-2 ATS)
— Titans scored 27-27-28 points in wins; they scored 15-3-16-16 in losses.
— Last two games, Tennessee converted 6-24 on third down.
— Titans are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Tennessee is 12-7 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win (0-2 TY)
— Titans are minus-3 in turnovers (2-5) so far this season.
— Levis is 1-0 as an NFL starter.
— AFC South underdogs are 11-5 ATS outside the division.
— Five of their seven games stayed under total.
— Team total: under 4-3. Opponents’ team total: over 4-2-1
— QB Pickett was hurt last week (check status)
— Steelers split their four home games SU (underdog in all four).
— Last four games, they were outscored 44-9 in first half.
— Steelers scored 26-23-17-24 points in wins, 7-6-10 in losses.
— Pittsburgh is 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.
— Pittsburgh has been outgained by 126.4 yards/game this season.
— Last six games, Steelers have a +8 turnover margin.
— Six of seven Steeler games stayed under the total.
— Pitt is 29-16-1 ATS in last 46 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— QB Pickett is 11-8 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 3-3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 4-3
— Steelers won four in row, seven of last nine series games.
— Titans are 3-7 ATS in their last ten visits to Pittsburgh.
— Over is 4-2-1 in last seven meetings.
Sunday’s games
Dolphins (6-2) vs Chiefs (6-2) (@ Frankfurt, Germany)
— Dolphins’ six wins are over teams with a combined 10-31 record
— Favorites are 7-0 ATS in their games this season.
— Miami scored 31+ points in five of six wins; 20-17 in losses.
— Last five games, Miami is minus-6 in turnovers (3-9).
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 35 TD’s on 83 drives.
— Away from home, Miami has scored 11 TD’s on 39 drives.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-5 ATS as an underdog.
— Under McDaniel, Dolphins are 8-5 ATS coming off a win.
— Over is 5-3 in their games, 2-2 away from home.
— Tagovailoa is 27-15 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 5-3. Opponents’ team total: over 4-4
— Chiefs had 6-game win streak snapped LW in Denver.
— Last three games, Chiefs were outscored 18-13 in second half.
— KC has outscored opponents 134-59 in first half.
— Chiefs have 10 takeaways in their wins (+1), 2 in losses (minus-3)
— KC is 11-15-1 ATS in last 27 games as a favorite away from home.
— Chiefs held six of last seven opponents under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Chiefs are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
— Last two games, Chiefs ran ball for only 68-62 yards.
— Under is 3-0-1 in their last four games.
— AFC West teams are 7-14 ATS outside thew division.
— Mahomes is 81-21 SU as an NFL starter.
— Team total: under 6-2. Opponents’ team total: under 6-2
— Chiefs won last three series games, scoring 33-29-34 points.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Vikings (4-4) @ Falcons (4-3)
— Rookie QB Hall gets first NFL start for Vikings after Cousins’ injury.
— Minnesota acquired QB Dobbs from Arizona Tuesday.
— Minnesota won last three games, scoring 19-22-24 points.
— Minnesota has seven takeaways in last three games (+4)
— Vikings allowed 13-13-17-10 points in their wins, 27.3 ppg in losses.
— Vikings are 7-8-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
— Minnesota is 10-14-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog.
— First NFL start for rookie QB Hall (BYU)
— Last four games, Vikings ran ball for only 70-46-74-63 yards.
— Under is 7-1 in Minnesota games this season.
— NFC North teams are 9-12-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-3. Opponents’ team total: under 5-2-1
— Unclear which QB will start, Heinicke or Ridder (concussion LW)
— Last five games, Atlanta is minus-9 in turnovers (3-12)
— Atlanta is 3-1 SU/1-2-1 ATS at home this year.
— Falcons are 3-10-1 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Falcons are 4-4, but haven’t led (0-6-2) at halftime yet.
— Atlanta has been outscored 97-49 in first half of games.
— Last two games, Falcons ran ball for 156-140 yards.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 10-11-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Ridder is 6-6 as an NFL starting QB; Heinicke is 12-12-1.
— Under is 13-3 in their last 16 games overall, 6-2 TY.
— Team total: under 5-3. Opponents’ team total: under 3-3-2
— Minnesota won four of last five series games.
— Vikings are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Atlanta.
— Under is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
Seahawks (5-2) @ Ravens (6-2)
— Seattle won five of last six games (4-1-1 ATS).
— Seahawks scored 37-37-24-20-24 points in wins, 13-13 in losses.
— Seahawks were outscored 40-6 in second half of their losses.
— Last three games, Seattle converted 16-37 third down plays.
— Seattle is 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Seattle is 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog.
— Seahawks are 10-15-1 ATS in last 26 games after a win.
— Geno Smith is 27-31 as an NFL starter, 15-13 with Seattle.
— Seattle is 21-21 SU last 2+ years, after going 34-18 from 2018-20.
— NFC West teams are 10-6-1 ATS outside the division.
— Under is 3-1 in Seattle’s last four games.
— Team total: under 4-3. Opponents’ team total: over 3-3-1
— Last five games, Ravens outscored opponents 91-16 in first half.
— Baltimore won four of last five games (3-2 ATS)
— Ravens scored 24+ points in its wins, 19-10 in losses.
— Baltimore is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite (2-1 TY)
— Ravens are 10-10 ATS in last 20 games vs NFC opponents.
— Ravens are 9-14 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore is minus-5 in TO’s in its losses, +4 in wins.
— Lamar Jackson is 52-21 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 5-3 in Baltimore games this season.
— AFC North teams are 11-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 5-3. Opponents’ team total: under 5-2-1
— Seattle won three of last four series games.
— Seahawks are ATS visits to Baltimore.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.
Cardinals (1-7) @ Browns (4-3)
— Rookie QB Tune could make 1st NFL start here; Dobbs got traded.
— Arizona is 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS last five games, losing by 19-14-17-17 points.
— Cardinals have been outscored 121-47 in 2nd half of games.
— Last six games, Arizona gave up 27.7 ppg.
— Cardinals have lost 18 of last 21 games SU (8-10 ATS in last 18).
— Cardinals are 8-8 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— QB Murray is 25-32-1 as an NFL starter; Tune is 0-0.
— Arizona is 11-8 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
— Arizona is 17-8-1 ATS last 26 games as a road underdog.
— Last four games, Cardinals allowed 21 TD’s on 64 drives.
— Five of last seven Cardinal games went over the total.
— Three of four Arizona road games stayed under total.
— NFC West teams are 10-6-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 5-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-4
— Browns’ last three games (2-1) were decided by total of seven points.
— Last three weeks, Cleveland ran ball for 160-150-155 yards.
— Last 3 weeks, backup QB Walker was 48-97/618, with 1 TD, 5 INT’s
— Browns gave up 3-3-17-38-24 points in their wins, 26-28 in losses.
— Cleveland won/covered three of its four home games.
— Last three games, Cleveland is only 13-44 on third down.
— Cleveland is 8-13-1 ATS last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 games coming off a loss.
— Opponents have converted only 26-92 third down plays.
— Under is 4-3 in Cleveland games the season.
— AFC North teams are 11-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 5-1-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3
— Cardinals won last five series games (4-1 ATS)
— Browns lost last four visits to Arizona (1-3 ATS)
— Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Rams (3-5) @ Packers (2-5)
— Stafford has screwed-up right thumb; unclear if he or Rypien will start.
— Rams lost three of their last four games.
— LA scored 30-29-26 points in its wins, 23-16-14-17-20 in losses.
— Rams are 2-2 SU/2-1-1 ATS on road this season.
— Rams are 3-2 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 0-3 when they don’t.
— Rams were outscored 63-35 in 2nd halves of their losses.
— Under McVay, Rams are 9-9-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Stafford is 22-16 with the Rams; Rypien is 2-1 as an NFL starter.
— Rams are 22-14-1 ATS in last 37 games coming of a loss.
— Under is 4-2 in Rams’ last six games.
— NFC West teams are 10-6-1 ATS outside their division.
— Team total: under 4-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3-1
— Green Bay is 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS in its last six games.
— Last four games, Packers were outscored 73-9 in first half.
— Green Bay has three takeaways in last five games (minus-5).
— Packers are 13-13-2 ATS in last 28 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Green Bay has outscored opponents 41-17 on 1st drive of a half.
— Jordan Love is 2-6 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 3-6 ATS in last nine games as home favorites.
— Green Bay is 1-6 ATS this year in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Green Bay is 4-7 ATS in last eleven games coming off a loss.
— Team total: under 5-2. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3
— Packers won eight of last nine series games.
— Rams are 0-6-1 ATS in last seven visits to Wisconsin.
— Over is 8-5 in last 13 meetings.
Buccaneers (3-4) @ Texans (3-4)
— Bucs lost three in row, four of last five games (2-3 ATS).
— Tampa Bay scored 20-27-26 points in wins, 11-6-13-18 in losses.
— Bucs have 14 takeaways in seven games (+8 turnovers)
— Bucs ran ball for 102.3 yards/game in wins, 41-46-73-78 in losses.
— Tampa Bay has allowed 9 TD’s on 60 drives.
— Bucs are 2-1 SU on road: 20-17 @ Minnesota, 26-9 @ NO, 18-24 @ Buffalo.
— Tampa is 3-0 ATS as road dog this year (6-13-3 from 2017-22)
— Bucs are 7-6-1 in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 6-1 in Tampa Bay’s games this season.
— Buccaneers are 5-7 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
— Mayfield is 35-43 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— NFC South underdogs are 5-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-0-1
— Houston won three of last five games (4-1 ATS)
— Texans scored 37-30-20 points in wins (9-20-19-13 in losses)
— Houston outscored last five foes 66-23 in first half.
— Texans are 2-9 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Opponents have converted 45-100 third down plays.
— Houston is 16-21-1 in last 30 games coming off a loss.
— Stroud is 3-4 as an NFL starter.
— Texans are 5-10-2 ATS last 17 games against NFC opponents.
— Houston is 13-8-2 ATS last 23 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— AFC South teams are 13-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 4-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-1
— Texans won last four series games (3-0-1 ATS)
— Buccaneers lost 19-9/28-14 in two visits to this stadium.
— Under is 3-2 in last five series games.
Commanders (3-5) @ Patriots (2-6)
— Washington lost five of last six games SU (2-3-1 ATS)
— Commanders scored 31-31 points vs Philly, but lost both games.
— Washington is 1-4 giving up 33+ points, 2-1 if they allow less.
— Last three weeks, Commanders are +4 in turnovers.
— Commanders are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS on road this season.
— Washington is 15-13-1 ATS in last 29 games as a home favorite.
— Washington is 8-12 ATS in last 20 games vs AFC opponents.
— Last six weeks, Commanders were outscored 87-54 in 1st half.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 4-5 as NFL starter.
— Washington is 9-12-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
— NFC East teams are 12-9-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: 5-3 over. Opponents’ team total: over 6-2
— Patriots lost four of their last five games (1-4 ATS).
— Patriots were outscored 82-26 in first half of those games.
— New England is minus-6 in turnovers this year.
— Last two games, Patriots have 7 offensive TD’s on 24 drives.
— Since Brady left, NE is 27-31 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Patriots are 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games vs NFC teams.
— Mac Jones is 18-22 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last five games, Patriots were outgained by 101.6 yards/game.
— Patriots are 14-15-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
— Under is 5-2-1 in New England games this season.
— AFC East favorites are 5-4 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 7-1. Opponents’ team total: 5-3 over
— New England won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
— Commanders lost 27-10/52-7 in last two visits to Foxboro.
— Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Bears (2-6) @ Saints (4-4)
— Rookie QB Bagent split his first two NFL starts
— Bears are +5 in turnovers in wins, minus-7 in losses.
— Chicago scored 40-30 points in its wins; they’re 0-6 otherwise.
— In Bagent’s two starts, Bears were 14-27 on third down.
— For season, Bears have been outscored 122-80 in second half.
— Bears are 11-31 SU/15-25-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Chicago is 6-13-1 ATS in last 20 games as road underdogs (1-3 TY).
— Chicago is 16-24-3 ATS in last 43 games coming off a loss.
— Six of their eight games went over the total.
— NFC North underdogs are 4-8-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-3. Opponents’ team total: over 6-2
— New Orleans is 3-1 scoring 20+ points, 1-3 scoring less than 20.
— Saints have seven offensive TD’s on last 24 drives.
— Last three weeks, NO gained 430-407-511 total yards.
— Saints outgained last four opponents, 1,652-1,154.
— Last four weeks, Saints outscored foes 51-24 in second half.
— Saints have been outscored 19-12 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Saints are 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
— Under is 6-2 in Saints’ games this season.
— NFC South home teams are 2-8-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 5-3. Opponents’ team total: under 5-3
— Saints won last seven series games (5-2 ATS).
— Bears are 1-3-1 ATS in last five visits to the Big Easy.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Colts (3-5) @ Panthers (1-6)
— Colts lost last three games, giving up 37-39-38 points.
— Backup QB Minshew is 9-19 as an NFL starter, 1-3 TY.
— Colts gave up 31-29-37-39-38 points in losses; 20-19-16 in wins.
— Indy won/covered two of its three road games TY.
— Indy has scored 20+ points in all eight games.
— Colts are 7-6 ATS last 13 games as a road favorite.
— since 2013, Colts are 42-30-2 ATS in games coming off loss (3-1 TY).
— Colts are 7-12 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Over is 6-2 in Indy’s games this season.
— Indy is 2-5 ATS in last seven games vs NFC teams.
— AFC South teams are 13-7 ATS outside the division.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 6-1-1. Opponents’ team total: over 5-3
— Carolina won its first game LW, after an 0-6 start (1-5-1 ATS).
— Last three games, Panthers allowed 14 TD’s on 29 drives.
— In Young’s six starts. Carolina averaged 5+ yards/pass attempt once.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started.
— Opponents are 16 of last 35 on third down plays.
— Carolina is 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games as a home dog (1-1-1 TY).
— Panthers are 5-7 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Panthers have been outscored 111-61 in second half of games.
— Carolina is 20-23-1 ATS in last 44 games following a win.
— NFC South teams are 7-14-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 4-3. Opponents’ team total: over 4-3
— Frank Reich coached the Colts from 2018-22 (41-35-1)
— Panthers won three of five series games.
— Bears split last two series games played here.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Giants (2-6) @ Raiders (3-5)
— QB Jones (23-36-1 as starter) is expected back for the Giants here.
— Giants lost five of last six games, scoring 10.7 ppg.
— Giants are 2-0-1 ATS in last three games.
— Giants outscored last three opponents 23-7 in first half.
— Giants are averaging only 267.8 yards/game this season.
— Last four games, Giants are +7 in turnovers.
— Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in last eight games vs AFC opponents.
— Last five games, Giants were outscored 64-22 in second half.
— Last four games, Giants have 4 TD’s, 28 3/outs on 65 drives.
— Giants are 12-9-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under is 7-1 in Giant games this season.
— Team total: under 6-2. Opponents’ team total: over 4-4
— Short week for Las Vegas after their Monday loss in Detroit.
— Raiders lost five of their last seven games.
— Last two games, Raiders ran ball 65 times for only 203 yards.
— Last two games, Las Vegas is 3-18 on third down.
— Opponents are 20 of last 39 on third down.
— Raiders won two of their three home games TY.
— Raiders are 6-3 in last nine games as a home favorite.
— Under is 6-2 in Raider games this season.
— Raiders are 11-17 ATS in last 28 games coming off a loss.
— WR Adams caught only one pass on seven targets Monday.
— AFC West teams are 7-13-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-0. Opponents’ team total: under 5-3
— Giants won four of last five series games.
— This is the Giants’ first-ever visit to Las Vegas.
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Cowboys (5-2) @ Eagles (7-1)
— Five Dallas wins were by a combined score of 171-50.
— Dallas scored 16-10 points in losses, 40-30-38-20-43 in wins.
— Cowboys gave up 222-170 YR in their two losses.
— Cowboys are 2-2 on road, winning 40-0 at Giants, 20-17 at Chargers.
— Dallas is 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road dog (0-0 TY).
— Cowboys are +9 in turnovers in wins, minus-4 in losses.
— Dallas is 15-11 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
— Dallas is 6-2 ATS last eight games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Dallas allowed 400-421 total yards in its losses.
— Three of last four Cowboy games stayed under the total.
— QB Prescott is 68-42 as an NFL starter.
— NFL-wide, home teams are 10-10 ATS in divisional games.
— Team total: over 4-3. Opponents’ team total: under 4-2-1
— Eagles won seven of first eight games (4-2-2 ATS)
— Weeks 1-5, Philly ran ball for 163.8 yards/game (80-99-59 last 3 games)
— Last four games, Philly is minus-7 in turnovers.
— Last two games, Eagles have nine TD’s on 18 drives.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 14-13-2 ATS coming off a win.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 10-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Eagles scored 23+ points in all of their wins, 14 in the loss.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 32-14 SU.
— Eagles were 7-12 ATS in last 19 NFC East home games.
— Hurts is 32-14 as an NFL starter.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Team total: over 5-2-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-4
— Dallas won five of last seven series games.
— Cowboys are 1-3 SU/ATS in last four visits to Philly.
— Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Bills (5-3) @ Bengals (4-3)
— Buffalo split its last four games (0-4 ATS) SU.
— Bills allowed 10-3-20-9-18 points in wins, 22-25-29 in losses.
— Bills have converted 49-101 third down plays this year.
— Bills are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
— This is first time Buffalo has been a dog since Week 15, 2021.
— Buffalo outscored last seven foes 111-50 in second half.
— Josh Allen is 52-31 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 21-15-1 ATS in last 37 games coming off a win.
— Buffalo is 11-2 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— AFC East underdogs are 3-5 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 4-4. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3-1
— Bengals won/covered last three games, giving up 20-13-17 points.
— Last three games, Bengals are +5 in turnovers.
— Cincy is 2-1 at home; all three games were decided by 4 or less points.
— Bengals ran ball for 134 yards LW, their most in any game TY.
— Last five games, Bengals converted only 18-59 third down plays.
— Cincinnati is 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite.
— Bengals are 10-2 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
— Cincy averaged 7.6 yards/pass attempt last game, by far their best TY.
— Cincy is 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 4-3 in their games this season.
— Team total: under 5-2. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3
— Bengals won five of last seven series games.
— Bills are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Cincinnati.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.
Monday’s game
Chargers (3-4) @ Jets (4-3)
— Chargers scored 28-24-30 points in wins; they’re 0-2 scoring less than 24.
— Bolts scored 27.5 ppg in first four games, 17-17-30 in last three.
— Chargers are 1-2 SU on road this season, giving up 27-24-31 points.
— under Staley, Chargers are 4-5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Bolts are 5-3-3 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
— Chargers have seven takeaways (+4) in wins, three (minus-1) in losses.
— Herbert is 28-29 as an NFL starter.
— Opponents are 11-39 on 3rd down in LA wins, 21-46 in losses.
— Under is 4-0-1 in last five Charger games.
— AFC West teams are 7-13-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 4-3
— Jets won last three games, are 3-0-1 ATS in last four
— Jets scored 22-31-20-13 points in wins, 10-10-20 in losses.
— Jets have been outscored 91-52 in first half of games.
— Jets gained 4.7/5.0/3.4/5.6/5.8/4.1/4.8 yards/pass attempt- not good.
— Gang Green is 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS as a home underdog this year.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 8-10 ATS as a home underdog
— Last five games, Jets converted 15-74 third down plays.
— Jets have scored eight TD’s, have 27 3/outs on 77 drives.
— Wilson is 11-17 as an NFL starter.
— Jets are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Under is 3-1 in their home games this season.
— Team total: over 3-3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 6-1
— Chargers won last four series games (2-1-1 ATS).
— Teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Chargers won 14-7/27-17 in last two visits to the Garden State.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine meetings.