Cnotes NBA April's Best Bets Thru the Playoffs- Trends,News,Stats !

[CNOTES]

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, April 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (25 - 55) at PHILADELPHIA (17 - 63) - 4/14/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 10-7 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 9-8 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
11 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (54 - 26) at WASHINGTON (42 - 38) - 4/14/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-5 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 6-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (15 - 65) at TORONTO (47 - 33) - 4/14/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 6-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHARLOTTE (41 - 39) at ATLANTA (37 - 43) - 4/14/2014, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 9-2 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 11-0 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
9 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA CITY (58 - 22) at NEW ORLEANS (32 - 48) - 4/14/2014, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-3 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN ANTONIO (62 - 18) at HOUSTON (53 - 27) - 4/14/2014, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 7-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 6-5 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ORLANDO (23 - 57) at CHICAGO (47 - 33) - 4/14/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 34-43 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in road games this season.
ORLANDO is 47-61 ATS (-20.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 90-64 ATS (+19.6 Units) in home games when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
CHICAGO is 38-52 ATS (-19.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 34-52 ATS (-23.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 5-3 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 7-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA LAKERS (25 - 55) at UTAH (24 - 56) - 4/14/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 72-90 ATS (-27.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
LA LAKERS are 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 48-67 ATS (-25.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 111-82 ATS (+20.8 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
LA LAKERS are 92-64 ATS (+21.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
UTAH is 33-43 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games this season.
UTAH is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
UTAH is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
UTAH is 17-30 ATS (-16.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 5-5 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 6-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (48 - 32) at PHOENIX (47 - 33) - 4/14/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 51-28 ATS (+20.2 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PHOENIX is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MEMPHIS is 93-78 ATS (+7.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 54-40 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 5-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 6-4 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (40 - 40) at GOLDEN STATE (49 - 31) - 4/14/2014, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 6-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 7-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Memphis at Phoenix
The Grizzlies come into their contest with the Suns tonight carrying a 4-1 ATS record in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. Memphis is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, APRIL 14

Game 501-502: Boston at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 113.029; Philadelphia 116.482
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 212
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Miami at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.848; Washington 120.659
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Milwaukee at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 108.987; Toronto 124.806
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 16; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 11; 204
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-11); Over

Game 507-508: Charlotte at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 115.716; Atlanta 116.502
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 203 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 3 1/2; 198
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3 1/2); Over

Game 509-510: Oklahoma City at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 115.489; New Orleans 114.212
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 200 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+7 1/2); Under

Game 511-512: San Antonio at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.857; Houston 127.333
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 4 1/2; 209 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6; 212
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+6); Under

Game 513-514: Orlando at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 112.419; Chicago 130.517
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 18; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 12; 184
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-12); Over

Game 515-516: LA Lakers at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 102.644; Utah 116.481
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 14; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 5 1/2; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-5 1/2); Under

Game 517-518: Memphis at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 126.135; Phoenix 125.173
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 1; 204 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3 1/2); Over

Game 519-520: Minnesota at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.508; Golden State 123.200
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 3 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 7 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+7 1/2); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, April 14

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Santana: ATLANTA 11-1 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog
Hernandez: PHILADELPHIA 11-22 after 2 or more consecutive wins

Washington at Miami, 7:10 ET
Zimmermann: 39-16 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5
Hand: MIAMI 73-126 after a loss

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Rodriguez: PITTSBURGH 17-7 after 6 or more consecutive road games
Bailey: CINCINNATI 19-38 in home games after a win by 8 runs or more

St Louis at Milwaukee, 8:10 ET
Lynn: ST LOUIS 18-31 in road games after a win
Garza: MILWAUKEE 10-2 in all games

NY Mets at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Wheeler: NY METS 49-23 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150
Collmenter: ARIZONA 9-1 OVER after a loss

Colorado at San Diego, 10:10 ET
Lyles: COLORADO 24-54 as a road underdog
Stults: 14-7 TSR when the total is 7 or less

Tampa Bay at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
Archer: TAMPA BAY 5-16 after a loss by 6 runs or more
Chen: 18-11 TSR as an underdog

Seattle at Texas, 8:05 ET
Elias: n/a
Lewis: n/a

Oakland at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Chavez: OAKLAND 122-79 after a win
Santiago: LA ANGELS 6-14 in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, April 14

Boston at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Boston: 14-6 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent
Philadelphia: 3-12 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less

Miami at Washington, 7:05 ET
Miami: 13-2 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4
Washington: 6-14 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins

Milwaukee at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Milwaukee: 22-43 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent
Toronto: 11-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games

Charlotte at Atlanta, 7:35 ET
Charlotte: 8-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite
Atlanta: 0-8 ATS in home games off a home win against a division rival

Oklahoma City at New Orleans, 8:05 ET
Oklahoma City: 48-27 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3
New Orleans: 19-29 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent

San Antonio at Houston, 8:05 ET
San Antonio: 12-1 ATS after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots
Houston: HOUSTON is 5-13 ATS after 2 games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls

Orlando at Chicago, 8:05 ET
Orlando: 12-23 ATS as a road underdog
Chicago: 14-6 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games

LA Lakers at Utah, 9:05 ET
LA Lakers: 48-71 ATS in road games
Utah: 53-31 ATS in home games off a loss against a division rival

Memphis at Phoenix, 10:05 ET
Memphis: 4-12 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite
Phoenix: 22-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses

Minnesota at Golden State, 10:35 ET
Minnesota: 17-40 ATS off a close road loss of 3 points or less
Golden State: 28-13 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 14

Hot teams
-- Celtics won last two games, covered three of last four.
-- Raptors won five of their last six games.
-- Wizards won six of their last nine games.
-- Bobcats won six of their last seven games. Atlanta won five of its last six games.
-- Bulls won seven of their last eight games.
-- Spurs won 22 of last 24 games, covered seven of last nine. Rockets won 14 of their 15 home games.
-- Thunder won three of their last four games.
-- Grizzlies won four of their last five games.
-- Warriors covered four of their last five games.

Cold Teams
-- 76ers lost 32 of their last 34 games, but covered six of last eight.
-- Bucks lost seven of last eight games (3-5 vs spread).
-- Miami lost four of its last six games.
-- Magic lost five of their last seven games.
-- Pelicans lost last eight games, but covered three of last four.
-- Utah lost nine of last ten games. Lakers lost last seven games (0-4-1 vs spread in last five).
-- Suns lost four of their last seven games.
--- Minnesota lost five of its last six road games.

Series records
-- 76ers are 10-9 in last 19 games with Boston, 2-1 this season.
-- Raptors are 3-0 vs Milwaukee this year, winning by 7-22-4 points.
-- Heat won/covered five of last six games with Washington.
-- Hawks won their last eleven games with Charlotte.
-- Bulls won nine of last eleven games with Orlando.
-- Spurs lost their last four games with Houston.
-- Pelicans lost their last ten games with Oklahoma City.
-- Lakers lost six of last eight games with Utah.
-- Grizzlies won six of their last eight games.
-- Warriors won seven of last eight games with Minnesota.

Totals
-- Seven of last nine Boston games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Milwaukee games went over total.
-- Last five Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Bobcat-Hawk games went over.
-- Four of last five Orlando games stayed under.
-- Last seven Houston games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven New Orleans games went over.
-- Five of last six Laker games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 25-15 in Memphis road games this year.
-- 12 of last 15 Minnesota-Golden State games stayed under.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, April 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
MIAMI vs. WASHINGTON
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 12 games
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

7:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. TORONTO
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Milwaukee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Milwaukee

7:00 PM
BOSTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Boston

7:30 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 6 games on the road
Charlotte is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games at home

8:00 PM
ORLANDO vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Orlando's last 15 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games on the road
San Antonio is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games

8:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City

9:00 PM
LA LAKERS vs. UTAH
LA Lakers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
LA Lakers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Utah is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games when playing at home against LA Lakers

10:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. PHOENIX
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Phoenix's last 14 games
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

10:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Golden State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, April 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Three teams books don't want to win the NBA title
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Calling it a doomsday scenario is a bit of an exaggeration but there is certainly one matchup sportbooks don’t want to see come the NBA Finals in June: The Brooklyn Nets versus the Los Angeles Clippers.

“The Nets would be a very bad result for us if they win the East and eventually go on to win the NBA Title,” says Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag. “We took decent action on them to start the season. Then they got off to an awful start and their odds got as high as 200/1. When you’re taking action at those odds it doesn’t take much to get exposed, and we did.”

As for the Clippers, it seems to be as much about their proximity to Nevada as it is about their strong play this season.

“Being in Reno, we usually always have more exposure on the “local” teams such as the Warriors and Lakers,” explains Steve Mikkelson, sportsbook director of the Atlantis Casino. “This year with the Lakers being as bad as they are, the attention was shifted to the Clippers.”

However, the books do seem very sanguine about the chances of this matchup coming to fruition. As No. 3 and No. 5 seeds respectively, the Clips and Nets would have to go through some formidable opponents – Spurs, Thunder, Heat, and Pacers - without home-court advantage to meet for the right to raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

As for the favorites, the books are quite comfortable with their current positioning. In fact, Stewart says it is only the New York Knicks (besides the Nets) that has them exposed at all.

“I don’t understand the fascination our bettors had with this Knicks team but they were a bet on team for our customers most of the year and they lost money on them throughout the season,” says Stewart. “And they bet them to win both the East and the NBA Title. We’ve had some very high odds on them but we’re talking about a team that isn’t going to even make the playoffs.”

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, April 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Three NBA teams that would love to play postseason spoiler
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The NBA schedule is wrapping up Wednesday, which leaves plenty of time for teams to jockey for playoff positioning. But beware basketball bettors. There are a few non-postseason teams still playing out the home stretch that would relish the role of spoiler in the final games of the season.

We look at three potential spoiled sports that NBA bettors should watch out for:

New York Knicks

The race for third spot in the Eastern Conference will have as much to do with the play of the New York Knicks as it will of the Toronto Raptors or Chicago Bulls. That’s because the Knicks travel to Toronto tonight before hosting the Bulls Sunday, going to Brooklyn and then welcoming the Raps on Wednesday.

For their part the Knicks still have an outside shot at the postseason with the Atlanta Hawks, up by two games, still needing to face the Nets, Heat, and Bobcats before finishing off with the Milwaukee Bucks.

But if the Knicks are to make the playoffs they may not be able to rely on Carmelo Anthony’s scoring. Reports say the Knicks’ All-Star will play these final games despite a deeply bruised shoulder that has seen Melo go just 9-for-31 over his last couple games.

“If you’ve even been a shooter, if it’s tough to raise your shooting arm it’s tough,” coach Mike Woodson told reporters. “Only Melo knows the severity of his pain. All I can try to do is put him in the best position possible, and if he tells me he’s hurting and he can’t play, then it’s my job to sit him. But I don’t know if he’ll ever tell me that.”

Milwaukee Bucks

The NBA’s worst team could have lots of say in the Eastern Conference’s final playoff positions. The Bucks play the Washington Wizards (tied with the Charlotte Bobcats for sixth), Toronto Raptors (fighting the Bulls for third), and Atlanta Hawks (see above) before we put the season to bed.

The Wiz would like to secure sixth instead of having to play either the Pacers or Heat, the Raps would like to avoid fourth and the Brooklyn Nets, and the Hawks have a tough schedule but essentially need just one more win to see off the Knicks for the final playoff spot.

And looking at the Bucks they probably won’t provide too much resistance to any of the three. The Bucks have lost eight of their last 10, keeping only two of the eight under 102 points. Heck, this team couldn’t even beat a struggling Indiana Pacers team that sat all five starters. But in all seriousness, what else can you expect from a team with a starting frontline of Khris Middleton, Jeff Adrien, and Zaza Pachulia all playing at least 32 minutes.

Sacramento Kings

The race for the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference between the Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, and Memphis Grizzlies is fascinating mostly because everyone still has to play each other.

Looking at the standings one would think getting to 49 wins will get you one of the two spots and currently the Mavs sit on 48 wins with two games (Suns and Grizz) left. Memphis, on 46 wins has the Sixers, Lakers, Suns, and Mavs, while Phoenix is on 47 with San Antonio, Dallas, Memphis and Sacramento left to play.

Looking at those matchups it’s realistic that it could come down to those final matchups between Dallas and Memphis and Phoenix versus Sacramento. If that’s the case the Phoenix has the best chance of getting one of the two spots.

Sacramento, as dysfunctional as any team, is as dead in the water as any bird on Duck Dynasty. Rudy Gay and Isaiah Thomas are probably done for the year and Ben McLemore with 79 NBA games under his belt is the most experienced starter in the backcourt. Meanwhile, Travis Outlaw and his near 5.3 ppg are playing nearly 30 minutes per game.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, April 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Spurs vs. Rockets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets (OFF)

The Houston Rockets wrap up what has been a phenomenal home performance when they host the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. Houston, which entered Sunday a game up on Portland in the battle for the fourth seed and homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, is 32-8 at home and can tie the 2008-09 edition for the most wins at the Toyota Center with a victory in the finale. The Rockets rallied for a 111-104 triumph over New Orleans on Saturday to snap a two-game skid and remain ahead of the Trail Blazers.

The Spurs have nothing to play for in the standings, having already clinched the best record in the NBA, but they are one win shy of matching the franchise record of 63 established in 2005-06. Tony Parker returned from a back injury to score 18 points and complement Danny Green's career-best 33 in a 112-104 win over Phoenix on Friday. Forward Tim Duncan and guard Manu Ginobili both took the night off.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBATV, FSN Southwest (San Antonio), CSN Houston

LINE HISTORY: The line and total for this game are currently off the board.

INJURY REPORT: San Antonio: C Tim Duncan - questionable (knee), G Manu Ginobili - questionable (hamsting), F Matt Bonner - questionable (illness). Houston: F Chandler Parsons - questionable (wrist)

POWER RANKINGS: San Antonio (-14) - Houston (-12) + home court (-3) = Houston -1

WHY BET THE SPURS (62-18, 45-35 ATS): With the top spot in the Western Conference already clinched, San Antonio could have eyed Friday's game - the second half of a back-to-back and the third game in four nights - as a chance to take it easy. However, the Spurs outscored the Suns by 19 points in an impressive second half and appear primed to finish strong. "Those guys have a lot of pride," head coach Gregg Popovich said of his players, whose 30 road wins is five more than any other NBA team.

WHY BET THE ROCKETS (53-27, 39-39-2 ATS) : Center Dwight Howard and guard Patrick Beverley both returned from eight-game layoffs to help Houston secure the comeback win over New Orleans, but forward Chandler Parsons sat with wrist and hip ailments. James Harden shouldered the load with 33 points and 13 assists and produced four points and two assists in a game-ending 15-0 run that kept the Rockets from falling into a tie with Portland. "We needed this win more than anything," Harden told reporters.

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 9-1 in Spurs last 10 games following an ATS win.
* Over is 5-0 in Rockets last five games playing on one days rest.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, April 14


Spurs' C Tim Duncan, questionable Monday

Duncan missed Friday's game with a knee injury and is questionable to play Monday against the Rockets.


Thunder guard Russell Westbrook, out Monday

Westbrook will get a scheduled day of rest on Monday and will not play against the Pelicans.

 

[CNOTES]

Hoop Trends - Monday

April 14, 2014


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Bobcats are 11-0 ATS (9.23 ppg) since Nov 05, 2008 on the road after a game in which they had at least 15 fewer shot attempts than their opponent.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The 76ers are 10-0 OU (12.70 ppg) since Apr 28, 2012 with at least one day of rest after a loss on the road in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Suns are 11-0 OU (14.05 ppg) since Feb 22, 2013 at home when not more than a 10 point favorite, after PJ Tucker scored fewer than 10 points in a road loss.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Spurs are 10-0 ATS (8.85 ppg) since Feb 05, 2014 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Heat are 7-0 OU (14.00 ppg) since Dec 05, 2003 after Dwyane Wade shot better than 66% from the field in a road loss.

-- The Suns are 7-0 ATS (7.36 ppg) since Dec 04, 2013 after Gerald Green took fewer than 10 shots on the road.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday's Tips

April 14, 2014


Heat at Wizards – 7:05 PM EST

Miami: 54-26 SU, 37-41-2 ATS
Washington: 42-38 SU, 41-38-1 ATS

These two Southeast Division rivals could potentially meet in the opening round of the playoffs later this week, but seedings won’t be decided for three days. The Heat got tripped up in Atlanta on Saturday night, 98-85, the third loss in the last four games. That defeat by Miami may have put them in the second spot in the East behind Indiana, as the Heat fell to 2-4 ATS in the past six contests.

The Wizards are fighting it out with the Bobcats for the sixth seed in the East, as Washington has posted a 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS record the last nine games. Washington’s defense has stepped up of late, holding nine of the past 10 opponents to less than 100 points, while hitting the ‘under’ nine times in this stretch. The home team has won all three meetings between the Heat and Wizards this season, as Washington ripped Miami in its last matchup at the Verizon Center in January, 114-97 as 5 ½-point underdogs.

Bobcats at Hawks – 7:35 PM EST

Charlotte: 41-39 SU, 46-31-3 ATS
Atlanta: 37-43 SU, 36-43-1 ATS

Both teams are headed to the playoffs, as Atlanta is assured the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks have won and covered five of their past six games, trying to put together some momentum prior to their first round matchup with either the Pacers or Heat. Atlanta has had tremendous success against Charlotte over the years, winning 11 straight meetings, including all three matchups this season.

Since getting tripped up at Orlando in overtime in late March, the Bobcats have won six of their past seven games to forge above the .500 mark. Charlotte continues to be a threat on the road by winning five of its last eight on the highway, including a pair of outright underdog wins at Washington. However, the Bobcats have beaten just three playoff teams on the road this season (Wizards, Warriors, and Raptors), as Charlotte has won 13 away contests against teams heading to the lottery.

Spurs at Rockets – 8:35 PM EST

San Antonio: 62-18 SU, 45-35 ATS
Houston: 53-27 SU, 39-39-2 ATS

The Spurs have wrapped up the top seed in the Western Conference, but are looking to avoid the season sweep to the rival Rockets tonight. Houston has covered just two of its last nine games overall, while cashing the ‘over’ in seven consecutive contests. The Rockets own a half-game lead over the Blazers for the fourth spot in the Western Conference, as Houston beat San Antonio in each of the first three matchups this season, all in the underdog role.

San Antonio erased a 21-point deficit in Friday’s 112-104 home victory over Phoenix in a potential first round matchup, while improving to 15-3 ATS the last 18 games overall. The Spurs have allowed at least 100 points in four of their last five away contests, while giving up at least 111 points twice to Houston this season.

Grizzlies at Suns – 10:05 PM EST

Memphis: 48-32 SU, 35-42-3 ATS
Phoenix: 47-33 SU, 51-28-1 ATS

The Grizzlies are on the doorstep of clinching the final playoff berth in the Western Conference, as a Memphis victory tonight sends them to the postseason. In three matchups with the Suns this season, the Grizzlies have won all three times, including a 99-91 road triumph at Phoenix back in early January as 5 ½-point underdogs. Last night, the Grizzlies avoided a letdown by holding off the Lakers as 12-point road favorites, 102-90 to win their third straight contest.

The Suns need to win their final two games to qualify for the playoffs, coupled with Memphis losing to Dallas on Wednesday. Regardless of the outcome, Phoenix has outdone any expectations with its incredible run this season, but consecutive losses to San Antonio and Dallas have dented the Suns’ hopes for the playoffs. Since late February, the Suns own a 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS the last 10 games in the Valley, which includes a pair of home victories over Oklahoma City.

 

[CNOTES]

Aprils Best Bets:

22 - 18..........................*****

12 - 4..........................DOUBLE PLAYS

9 - 11 - 1...........................TRIPLE PLAYS


Monday, April 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia +2.5 500 *****
Philadelphia - Under 211.5 500

Milwaukee - 7:00 PM ET Milwaukee +11 500 *****
Toronto - Over 206.5 500

Miami - 7:00 PM ET Washington -5.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Washington - Under 189 500

Charlotte - 7:30 PM ET Charlotte -5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Atlanta - Over 195.5 500

Orlando - 8:00 PM ET Orlando +11.5 500
Chicago - Under 183 500

San Antonio - 8:00 PM ET Houston -4.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Houston - Over 212 500

Oklahoma City - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans +8 500
New Orleans - Over 204 500

L.A. Lakers - 9:00 PM ET Utah -6 500 ******
Utah - Over 214 500

Memphis - 10:00 PM ET Memphis +3 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Phoenix - Under 194 500

Minnesota - 10:30 PM ET Golden State -7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Golden State - Over 210.5 500

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Denver at LA Clippers
The Clippers host a Denver team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games in Los Angeles. LA is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-9). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, APRIL 15

Game 701-702: New York at Brooklyn (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 115.098; Brooklyn 125.530
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 10 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 6; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-6); Over

Game 703-705: Denver at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 113.369; LA Clippers 124.508
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 11; 209
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 9; 220
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-9); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Tuesday, April 15


Nets' F Paul Pierce, questionable Tuesday

Pierce tweaked his right shoulder on Sunday and was forced to leave the game. He is questionable to play Tuesday's game against the Knicks.


Knicks' F Carmelo Anthony, doubtful Tuesday

Anthony is considering having an MRI done on his troublesome shoulder and is doubtful to play Tuesday against the Nets.


Heat rest James and Bosh, cede top seed

The Miami Heat decided that resting forward LeBron James and center Chris Bosh trumped playoff seeding.

Battling for their own postseason position, the Washington Wizards took full advantage of a game that had a preseason quality.

Forward Trevor Ariza scored 25 points, and forward Nene added 18 points as the Wizards earned their third consecutive win, beating the Heat 114-93 Monday night.

Miami's largest loss of the season locked up the Eastern Conference regular-season title for the idle Indiana Pacers. The Heat, who lost for the fourth time in five games, will enter the postseason as the second seed.


Raptors get franchise-record 48th win

The Toronto Raptors are keeping the blinkers on, looking straight ahead to the task that faces them in the playoffs.

Despite setting a franchise record with their 48th win of the season in defeating the Milwaukee Bucks 110-100 on Monday, they are not satisfied yet.

"We're not enjoying it the way we should right now," said guard Greivis Vasquez, who led the Raptors with 25 points while guard DeMar DeRozan was rested. "This is important, this is huge. We value this, but at the same time we're going to leave it to the moment and we're just going to be humble and try to continue to win. We want to get 49 wins."

Guard Kyle Lowry added 24 points for the Raptors (48-33), who swept their four-game season series against the Bucks (15-66) for the first time in team history.


Carter-Williams leads 76ers to rare win

In leading the Philadelphia 76ers to a rare victory Monday night, Michael Carter-Williams added another line to his resume.

The rookie point guard had 21 points, a career-high 14 rebounds and six assists as the Sixers held off the Boston Celtics 113-108.

"I think he's been great," 76ers coach Brett Brown said. "I think he feels and looks like he's the Rookie of the Year, and he's improved to that stage where I think it's well-deserved."

It was the 16th double-double of the season for Carter-Williams, and the 12th time he has had at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists in one game. All other rookies combined had eight such games entering Monday's action.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, April 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW YORK (35 - 45) at BROOKLYN (44 - 36) - 4/15/2014, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 5-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-4 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (36 - 44) at LA CLIPPERS (56 - 24) - 4/15/2014, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 6-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 5-5 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, April 15

Hot teams
-- Knicks won five of their last seven games. Brooklyn won seven of its last ten games.
-- Denver won its last three games, all by 7 or less points- they're 6-1 vs spread in last seven games. Clippers won six of their last eight.

Cold Teams
-- None.

Series records
-- Knicks won ten of last fourteen games with Brooklyn.
-- Clippers lost four of last five games with Denver.

Totals
-- Eight of last eleven Knick-Net games stayed under.
-- Nine of last thirteen Nugget-Clipper games stayed under.




NBA

Tuesday, April 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM
NEW YORK vs. BROOKLYN
New York is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against New York
Brooklyn is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home

10:30 PM
DENVER vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
LA Clippers are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the LA Clippers last 12 games at home


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA

Tuesday, April 15


Nets' F Paul Pierce, questionable Tuesday

Pierce tweaked his right shoulder on Sunday and was forced to leave the game. He is questionable to play Tuesday's game against the Knicks.


Knicks' F Carmelo Anthony, doubtful Tuesday

Anthony is considering having an MRI done on his troublesome shoulder and is doubtful to play Tuesday against the Nets.


Heat rest James and Bosh, cede top seed

The Miami Heat decided that resting forward LeBron James and center Chris Bosh trumped playoff seeding.

Battling for their own postseason position, the Washington Wizards took full advantage of a game that had a preseason quality.

Forward Trevor Ariza scored 25 points, and forward Nene added 18 points as the Wizards earned their third consecutive win, beating the Heat 114-93 Monday night.

Miami's largest loss of the season locked up the Eastern Conference regular-season title for the idle Indiana Pacers. The Heat, who lost for the fourth time in five games, will enter the postseason as the second seed.


Raptors get franchise-record 48th win

The Toronto Raptors are keeping the blinkers on, looking straight ahead to the task that faces them in the playoffs.

Despite setting a franchise record with their 48th win of the season in defeating the Milwaukee Bucks 110-100 on Monday, they are not satisfied yet.

"We're not enjoying it the way we should right now," said guard Greivis Vasquez, who led the Raptors with 25 points while guard DeMar DeRozan was rested. "This is important, this is huge. We value this, but at the same time we're going to leave it to the moment and we're just going to be humble and try to continue to win. We want to get 49 wins."

Guard Kyle Lowry added 24 points for the Raptors (48-33), who swept their four-game season series against the Bucks (15-66) for the first time in team history.


Carter-Williams leads 76ers to rare win

In leading the Philadelphia 76ers to a rare victory Monday night, Michael Carter-Williams added another line to his resume.

The rookie point guard had 21 points, a career-high 14 rebounds and six assists as the Sixers held off the Boston Celtics 113-108.

"I think he's been great," 76ers coach Brett Brown said. "I think he feels and looks like he's the Rookie of the Year, and he's improved to that stage where I think it's well-deserved."

It was the 16th double-double of the season for Carter-Williams, and the 12th time he has had at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists in one game. All other rookies combined had eight such games entering Monday's action.

 

[CNOTES]

Hoop Trends - Tuesday

April 15, 2014


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Nuggets are 0-12 ATS (-7.12 ppg) since Dec 18, 2001 with two or more days of rest off a win in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter at home.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Nets are 12-0-1 OU (11.8 ppg) since Jan 05, 2011 at home after a game in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average and did not win by 15 or more.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Clippers are 13-0-1 OU (12.9 ppg) since Mar 23, 2013 at home after Matt Barnes played fewer than 30 minutes at home when they were not favored by more than 14 points.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Nets are 0-11-1 ATS (-8.38 ppg) since Mar 29, 2009 with at most one day of rest and a total of between 180 and 205 after a game at home in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Nets are 7-0 ATS (10.00 ppg) since Feb 01, 2014 when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss as a dog.

-- The Knicks are 8-0 ATS (8.19 ppg) since Apr 26, 2012 on the road with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday's Top Action

April 15, 2014


New York (35-45) at Brooklyn (44-36)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Brooklyn -6.5, Total: 192.5

The Knicks look to close out their disappointing season on a high note Tuesday night with a victory over the in-state rival Nets.

New York is eliminated from the playoffs after a horrible season, but the club has won two straight games and will look to close out its final two games with pride. The team is coming off a 100-89 home victory over the Bulls on Sunday and has now won-and-covered in five of its past seven contests.

Brooklyn, on the other hand, is coming off a 97-88 home win over the Magic on Tuesday that snapped a two-game losing skid. But the Nets are already set in their playoff position and have been resting their starters to have them fresh when it matters most. SF Carmelo Anthony (shoulder) is doubtful for the Knicks, who are 2-1 (SU and ATS) in three games against the Nets this season.

New York is 6-4 SU against Brooklyn over the past three seasons, including 3-1 SU at Barclays Center. The Nets, however, are 5-4-1 ATS overall in this series over the past three seasons and have covered in two of the four games they’ve played at home during that timeframe. Over the past three seasons, the Knicks are 22-12 ATS in April games, but Brooklyn is 8-2 ATS revenging a loss versus an opponent who beat them by double-digits.

The Knicks are coming off of a home win over the Bulls, but that could ultimately end up being the last game that SF Carmelo Anthony (27.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG) ever plays in a Knicks uniform. Anthony had 17 points (7-of-13 FG) in just 28 minutes, and could sit out the team's back-to-back games to close out the season.

SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (10.0 PPG) led the team in scoring on Sunday with 20 points (5-of-12 FG) and also came away with three steals. In three meetings with the Nets this season, Hardaway Jr. is averaging 13.3 PPG in 24.0 MPG. With the Knicks' season coming to an end, the team will look to get their young stud plenty of minutes as a way to improve, and have him feeling confident for next season.

This should also mean some extended minutes for SG Iman Shumpert (6.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.2 SPG). Shumpert had 10 points and seven rebounds in the win over Chicago, and is averaging 9.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 2.4 SPG over the past five games. In three games against the Nets this season, he’s averaging 10.7 PPG in just 22.3 MPG.

SG J.R. Smith (14.3 PPG) finished the season on an extremely high note and will look to keep that up against the Nets as well. Over the past five games, last season's Sixth Man of the Year is averaging 24.0 PPG in 35.8 MPG.

The Nets are coming off a 97-88 win, and right now they’re playing strictly for momentum heading into the postseason. In that win over Orlando, PF Mirza Teletovic (8.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG) had 20 points and six rebounds in 29 minutes of play.

PG Deron Williams (14.4 PPG, 6.2 APG) played 35 minutes in the win over Orlando and he finished with 16 points, five assists and four steals. It was a great sign for the Nets because Williams was dealing with tendinitis in his knee this week and sat out of Friday night’s loss to the Hawks. He is averaging 12.5 PPG in two games against the Knicks this season.

SF Paul Pierce (13.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG) played 19 minutes against the Magic and finished with 10 points, five rebounds and three assists to go along with three steals in just 19 minutes. Pierce has struggled against the Knicks this season, averaging just 5.5 PPG in 26.5 MPG in the two games he’s played in the series.

PF Mason Plumlee (7.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG) has been one of the most consistent players for the Nets all season and has taken his game to a new level with an increase in minutes. Over the past five games, Plumlee is averaging 14.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 1.0 BPG in 27.0 MPG. He will need to play well if the Nets are going to come away with this win at home.

Denver (36-44) at L.A. Clippers (56-24)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Los Angeles -9, Total: 219.5

As the season winds down, the Nuggets and Clippers meet for a fourth and final time on Tuesday night.

Denver has had a very disappointing season, but is finishing strong with a three-game SU winning streak (2-1 ATS). The team's first two wins of the streak came against very tough opponents as it first defeated Houston by a score of 123-116 as two-point underdogs, and then took down the Warriors on the road, 100-99, while getting a hefty 12 points. The Nuggets extended their streak to three with a 101-94 victory against the Jazz on Saturday while out-rebounding their opponent by 13 and failing to cover the 9.5-point spread.

Los Angeles has arguably been the best team in the league since the All-Star break, going 19-4 SU (14-8-1 ATS) since Feb. 23. The team had no trouble against Sacramento this past Saturday, covering the 11-point spread at home with a 117-101 win while shooting 50.6% from the field. The road has been very rocky for Denver this season, as the club has put together a poor 14-26 SU record, but has been profitable at 21-18 ATS. Meanwhile, the Clippers are one of the top home teams in the NBA, going 33-7 SU and 20-20 ATS.

The home team has won each of the first three games of this series (both SU and ATS), with Denver hosting the past two contests and winning by an average of 5.5 PPG. The club limited L.A. to just 39.1% shooting in the most recent meeting on March 17, winning 110-100 as a 4-point underdog and out-rebounded the Clippers by 12 (55-43). These two teams have split their 10 games SU over the past three seasons, with Los Angeles going 4-6 ATS, but the club has won each of its past three home games SU in this series.

The Nuggets have dealt with injuries all season, and they will be short-handed again on Tuesday, as PG Ty Lawson (ankle) is doubtful, PF Darrell Arthur (knee) is questionable, and SF Danilo Gallinari, PF J.J. Hickson (knee) and PG Nate Robinson are all out for the season with knee injuries. SF Danny Granger (hamstring) is the sole injured player on L.A.’s side of the ball.

The Nuggets led the league in scoring last season, but have been far from doing that in 2013, netting 104.3 PPG (9th in league) on the season. Over their past five games, they have looked more like last season's offense, scoring 108.2 PPG. The defense has been the main downfall for the entire season, giving up 106.3 PPG (3rd-worst in NBA).

PF Kenneth Faried (13.6 PPG, 8.5 RPG) has taken advantage of some increased minutes and is averaging a huge double-double (19.6 PPG, 14.4 RPG) over his past five games. He’s been very effective in his first three games against the Clippers this season, getting 16.0 PPG (61% FG) to go along with 9.0 RPG and 1.0 BPG.

SG Randy Foye (13.0 PPG, 3.4 APG) has taken over the scoring duties over the past three games, putting up 25.3 PPG over that time while dishing out 9.3 APG and grabbing 5.3 RPG. With only 9.3 PPG (23% FG) in his three games against Los Angeles on the season, Foye has done little to aid in the team's past two series wins.

C Timofey Mozgov (9.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.2 BPG) had one of the best games in the entire league last Thursday when he dropped 23 points with 29 rebounds and three blocks against the Warriors. His three games when facing the Clips have been very close to his season averages, as he has 11.3 PPG (44% FG) and 7.3 RPG against them.

The Clippers offense has steamrolled plenty of their opponents and are averaging a league-best 107.9 PPG this season. Amazingly, they have improved on that number over their past five games, scoring 111.4 PPG on 48% FG in that time. In those same five contests, their defense has struggled, allowing opponents to score 105.2 PPG (45% FG), but L.A. has been better overall on the season, giving up 100.8 PPG (14th in NBA).

PG Chris Paul (19.1 PPG, 10.7 APG, 2.5 SPG) is coming off a double-double (17 points, 10 assists) while also grabbing seven rebounds in the win over the Kings. He’s played in 27 career games against Denver, averaging 19.7 PPG (46% FG), 9.7 APG and 2.2 SPG.

PF Blake Griffin (24.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG) has been an incredible all-around player in his past five games, scoring more than 23 points in each contest while getting double-digit rebounds twice and 9+ assists twice as well. Denver has been no match for him in the three games this season, as Griffin has posted 28.7 PPG (44% FG), 13.0 RPG and 1.3 SPG.

C DeAndre Jordan (10.5 PPG, 13.7 RPG, 2.5 BPG) had a near triple-double (21 points, 9 rebounds, 7 blocks) against the Kings, but snapped a 24-game streak of having double-digit rebounds. He’s averaged a double-double (11.3 PPG, 11.7 RPG) over his three games against Denver while adding 2.0 BPG.

 

[CNOTES]

Zig-Zag Theory

April 15, 2014


NBA Zig Zags…Up In Smoke

Long before “The Gold Sheet” first called out the premise, Zig Zags were primarily recognized as popular rolling papers for those who enjoy their smoke of choice.

In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs.

The premise is simple:

‘Play On’ a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.

The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.

How have these plays held up of late? You might be surprised.

Here are pointspread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2013.

Game On, Dude

Overall: 745-661-36 (52.9%)

Game Two: 186-147-13 (55.8%)
Game Three: 188-151-6 (55.4%)
Game Four: 153-155-7 (49.6%)
Game Five: 117-118-6 (49.7%)
Game Six: 72-67-2 (51.7%)
Game Seven: 29-23-2 (55.7%)

The strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Game Two where they become a near 56% point-spread play on the blind.

That’s especially true for home teams off a Game One home loss as they are 50-33-1 ATS (60.2%), including a spotless 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog.

Burn Baby Burn

Like all things that are popular, though, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.

A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the odds makers has seen the NBA Zig Zags go up in smoke since 2001.

That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 13 years (2001-2013), going 434-412-26 – or 51.3% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-10 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.

Talk about a buzz kill.

Round ‘Em Up

Round One: 351-315-20 (52.7%)
Round Two: 227-195-7 (53.7%)
Round Three: 167-151-9 (52.5%
Round Four: 56-48-3 (53.8%)

While it appears there is hold no discernable edge between rounds, it’s interesting to note that the largest profits are derived by home teams in Round Two as they are 124-103-4, including 76-48-3 when playing off a double-digit defeat.

Planting the Seed

No. 1 Seeds: 101-95-5 (51.5%)
No. 2 Seeds: 100-80-3 (55.5%)
No. 3 Seeds: 87-75-9 (53.7%)
No. 4 Seeds: 76-68-1 (52.7%)
No. 5 Seeds: 69-62-2 (52.6%)
No. 6 Seeds: 55-53-2 (50.9%)
No. 7 Seeds: 39-58-4 (40.2%)
No. 8 Seeds: 57-43-5 (57.0%)

Note these results are since the 1996 season, when our database first began charting seeds.

Disparate results abound between No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.

Digging deeper, No. 7’s are a not-so-lucky 3-15-1 (16.6%) as underdogs of 9 or more points, while No.8’s are 12-5 (70.5%) as a ‘pick’ or favorite.

Rocky Mountain High

So then where is it we can still expect to catch the best buzz possible with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?

Twist these two up for size and remember, no bogarting:

1) Double Digit Dogs are 44-23-2 (65.6%) and…
2) Favorites of 4 ½ points or more off a loss of 20 points or more are 30-9 (76.9%).

After all, they make the best ‘sense’… if you know what I mean.

 

[CNOTES]

Aprils Best Bets:

23 - 120..........................*****

14 - 5..........................DOUBLE PLAYS

11 - 11 - 1...........................TRIPLE PLAYS


Tuesday, April 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New York - 8:00 PM ET New York +6 500 *****

Brooklyn - Under 192 500 *****

Denver - 10:30 PM ET Denver +9.5 500 *****

L.A. Clippers - Under 219.5 500 *****