Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack
Golden Nugget sportsbook's college football over/unders for this coming fall..........
-- Houston Cougars 9, under -$150
-- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 9, under -$125
-- Ohio State Buckeyes, 8.5, over -$115
-- Tennessee Volunteers, 10
-- Baylor Bears 9, under -$125
-- Michigan State Spartans 8.5, under -$130
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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: College football knowledge, and DDLohaus handicaps the Preakness Stakes........
The Kentucky Derby is behind us and the race really ended as we had expected. Nyquist was all he was said to be; looked great winning the race in a very solid time. The top four favorites covered the top four spots with Exaggerator again the runner up. We couldn't collect on our big bets as Mohaymen could only manage fourth. We did hit the saver exacta but not much joy there....
The Preakness comes quickly and welcomes a host of newcomers trying to not only beat the Derby winner, but launch themselves into the summer spotlight as the racing season continues to crank up. As I sit here in Delaware, the weather forecast for Saturday is BAD; 90% chance of rain all morning into the afternoon and COLD with a high of 57 degrees. The weather forecast certainly requires a bit of restraint in wagering but also introduces a whole other set of variables when handicapping the race.
Nyquist is still the horse to beat. As I've said before, he has done nothing wrong and look really good in the Derby. I am convinced that Exaggerator is as honest as they come and he keeps Nyquist honest. If Nyquist doesn't show up, Exaggerator will turn the tables. These two (Nyquist and Exaggerator) are clear standouts in the 3yr old category so far this year; I just don't see a very deep crop of 3yr olds (yet). The problem is that they are both very short odds AND the weather conditions are sure to make conditions anything but ideal. Talent alone, these two run 1-2 but I challenge anyone to say, for sure, how they will respond to adverse conditions on Saturday.
As is customary, I will throw out a wildcard for you to consider. This runner may be worth a small wager and given the expected weather and track conditions is not a complete reach. Abiding Star is on a bit of a hot streak coming into the Preakness. He has won five in a row and has had success over wet tracks. He will likely be close to the front if not on the lead and may not look back. Distance is a concern and he may be a notch below many in here but horses do get brave sometimes and if he finds himself in front turning for home, the track is heavy and tiring, and the others don't fire their best he may shock at a big price and he would be a nice play underneath the two favorites.
Selections:
Nyquist: Deserving favorite and a notch better than the rest (just cant bet a 3/5 in adverse conditions)
Exaggerator: Honest, hard knocker capable of winning if top one doesn't fire his best (just cant bet a horse that has lost 4 times to top one and short odds)
Abiding Star: Longshot being tested for class and distance but may get brave on the front end and has handled off tracks.
The Bets:
$5WPS Abiding Star
$5EXBX Abiding Star/Nyquist/Exaggerator
$2TRIBX Abiding Star/Nyquist/Exagerator
Total Bets: $57.00
College football knowledge..........
13) LSU's new defensive coordinator last worked at Wisconsin; Tigers, who have 18 starters back, open the season Sept 3 against the Badgers at Lambeau Field.
12) USC plays Alabama, Stanford, Utah in September, none of them at home.
11) Urban Meyer has a 154-27 record, 50-4 at Ohio State; his defensvie coordinator this year is former Rutgers/Bucs coach Greg Schiano.
10) Texas A&M recruited only two of the top 20 recruits from the Lone Star State this year- they're on their fourth offensive coordinator in the last five years. Aggies are 16-10 overall the last two years, 17-15 in conference play the last four years.
9) Contrast that to Oklahoma State, which is 27-12 the last three years; their OC is in his fourth season in Stillwater, their DC is in his sixth season. Continuity helps.
8) UCLA's freshman kicker JJ Molson is the grandson of Montreal Canadiens' owner, beer magnate Geoff Molson; wonder if they'll be selling Molson beer at the Rose Bowl this year. Having a freshman kicker can drive you to drink.
7) Michigan State is 36-5 the last three years, but lost top two WRs and their QB who started for three years. Spartans play Notre Dame/Wisconsin on back/back early on in season. Mark D'Antonio is 7-2 against rival Michigan.
6) Tennessee hasn't won SEC East since 2007; they haven't won the SEC since '98, the year after Peyton Manning left. Vols' over/under win total in Las Vegas this year is 10, so with 18 starters back, Butch Davis' team has high expectations.
5) Mack Brown was 25-14 his last three years at Texas; Charlie Strong is 11-14 his first two years in Austin. Longhorns gave up 30.3 ppg last year.
4) Florida State is 49-6 the last four years; only one of their four September games is at home. RB Dalvin Cook won SEC rushing title by 164 yards LY.
3) Oregon went 9-4 LY, after going 48-5 the four years before that; they lost their bowl game after leading 31-0 at the half. Once again, the Ducks' QB will be a transfer from a I-AA school, this time Dakota Prukop from Montana State.
2) Ole Miss has its first-ever two-game winning streak over Alabama, which is hard to believe. Rebels play Florida State, Alabama and Georgia, all in September. Oy.
1) Michigan is 2-14 against Ohio State/Michigan State the last eight years.