Thursday's Top Action
March 10, 2016
BAYLOR BEARS (21-10) vs. TEXAS LONGHORNS (20-11)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Baylor -1, Total: 138
Two Top 25 teams collide when No. 22 Baylor looks to knock off No. 23 Texas for the second time this season and move on in the Big 12 tournament.
Baylor (10-14-1 ATS) comes into Thursday’s game having lost their last two to close out the season and three of their last four, most recently at home Saturday against West Virginia (69-58, Baylor -3). Coach Scott Drew must hope that 3+ days rest continues to be good to the Bears (15-3 SU on 3+ days).
Texas closed the season on a winning note at Oklahoma State (62-50, Texas -6.5) on Saturday. Coach Shaka Smart’s team will be looking to rebound from a drubbing at the hands of Baylor in Austin just weeks earlier (78-64, Texas -6) on Feb. 20th. Texas allowed the Bears to shoot 62.7% FG while only grabbing 22 rebounds in the loss. Texas actually drew first blood this season, going into Waco on Feb. 1st and winning 67-59 (Baylor -4.5), holding Baylor to 35.2% FG.
Literally big news for the Longhorns may alter their recent rebounding woes as injured C Cameron Ridley (12.7 PPG, 10 RPG), who hasn’t played since Dec. 19th with a broken foot, has now been cleared for basketball activities. While just days earlier reports were that he’d miss the Big 12 tournament, there is now a chance that Ridley could suit up as soon as Thursday’s game. Texas has only outrebounded one of their last six opponents.
Baylor and Texas are both knotted up at 5 games apiece (5-5 ATS) over their last 10 meetings, with Thursday’s game being the rubber match between the two this season. Baylor and Texas last met in Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament in March of 2014, with the Bears rolling, 86-69 (Baylor +1.5). Baylor is 4-1 ATS over their last five against Texas.
In total trends, the OVER has been hit in 8 of the last 11 games that Baylor and Texas have met.
Baylor can beat you in a variety of ways. They’re not a terrible three point shooting team (38.1% 3PT) but they don’t shoot the long ball often (16.4 3PA), as coach Drew’s club plays to their strengths: sharing the ball and crashing the glass. The Bears average 17.6 assists per game (5th NCAA) and grab 40% of all available offensive rebounds (3rd NCAA).
On defense, Baylor’s best weapon is that gaudy offensive rebounding, as they only allow 29.2 total rebounds per game (2nd NCAA). The Bears also post gaudy steal numbers (7.8 SPG, 20th NCAA). So why do the Bears only have a so-so scoring defense (69.9 PPG)? Baylor unfortunately succumbs to teams that can move the ball (17.7 APG, 347th NCAA), which leads to easy shots and kills their defensive percentages (45% FGA; 37.6% 3PA).
F Taurean Prince (15.5 PPG, 6 RPG) leads four double-figure scorers for the Bears. Prince fancies himself as a playmaker, and is definitely a consistent scorer (14 straight in double-figures), but has a tendency to force the action a bit, which can make him turnover prone (2.7 TO/G). Prince’s turnover mark is more per game than Baylor’s primary ball handler, G Lester Medford (9.3 PPG, 6.8 APG), who’d be more recognized for his steady assist-to-turnover ratio if he didn’t play in the same conference as Iowa State’s Monte Morris.
On Feb. 1st against Texas, F Rico Gathers (11.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG) would go on to score 20 points and grab 8 rebounds in a loss to the Longhorns. Gathers hasn’t scored in double-figures again this season, having been battling health issues and playing limited minutes. Nobody quite knows what version of Gathers the Bears will get on Thursday; will it be the brute who averaged 11.7 RPG last season, or the player who’s been a shell of himself for the last month and not in basketball shape?
F Johnathan Motley (11 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is another x-factor for Baylor, as he proved with 24 points on 12-13 FG in the Bears’ win over the Longhorns. Unfortunately Motley has been plagued by effort and foul issues throughout his career and comes off of a combined two points and eight rebounds over Baylor’s last two games.
Given the uncertainty around Ridley’s possible return, it’s hard to say how coach Smart’s rotation will shake out for Thursday’s game, but Baylor is the perfect opponent to have Ridley available for. Countering the Bears’ efficiency in the paint will go a long way toward helping Texas duplicate the success they had in Waco, while preventing Baylor from shooting 60% FG or better as they did more recently against the Longhorns.
G Isaiah Taylor (15 PPG, 4.8 APG) is the focal point of this Texas team, but he’s struggled mightily from the field to close the season (11-39 FG over last three games). While the three-point shot isn’t a main part of his arsenal, Taylor’s only hit once from long distance in his past seven games (1-10). Taylor did have a season-high nine assists in Texas’ win over Baylor.
F Connor Lammert (6.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG) also tied a season high as he scored 15 (5-7 FG, 3-4 3PT) in the early February win over Baylor. Lammert is struggling with his shot lately though, going 3-13 FG (2-11 3PT) in his last two games.
In Texas’ season-closing win on Saturday, freshman G Kerwin Roach Jr. (7.4 PPG) would lead the Longhorns over Oklahoma State with 15 points and 6 rebounds, but is an inconsistent offensive option for coach Smart.
Steady senior G Javan Felix (11 PPG) provides experience and a history of clutch shooting, but has shied away from his strength (perimeter shooting) as of late, going only 1-2 combined from three over his last three games. This game against Baylor will most likely come down to whether Texas can hold off the Bears on the glass and stop them from easy buckets in the paint.
IOWA ST CYCLONES (21-10) vs. OKLAHOMA SOONERS (24-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Oklahoma -3, Total: 160.5
No. 21 Iowa State and No. 6 Oklahoma meet for the third time this season, this time with a Big 12 tournament semifinal berth at stake.
Iowa State versus Oklahoma has produced two great games this season, the margin of victory in both games combining for less than 10 points. The home team won each matchup, Oklahoma (12-16 ATS) defeated Iowa State (87-83, OU -6.5) in Norman on Jan. 2, while the Cyclones (14-13-1 ATS) took out the Sooners (82-77, ISU -2) on Jan. 18th in Ames.
After a lackluster performance in beating Oklahoma State, 58-50 (ISU -11) on Feb. 29th, Iowa State had a weeks’ worth of preparation for Tuesday’s game at Kansas, but couldn’t pull off the upset of the No. 1 team in the country as they fell 85-78 (ISU +11.5). The Cyclones have covered in only two of their last six games.
These two teams met last season in Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament, with Iowa State rallying from 11 down and surviving a missed layup at the buzzer for a 67-65 win (ISU -1). The Cyclones would go on to win the conference tournament last season. Iowa State is 6-4 SU (6-4 ATS) in the past 10 games against Oklahoma and the Cyclones have covered each of the past four.
Both of these squads have had great offenses in recent years, and therefore the total for this matchup is usually quite high. However, the total has been UNDER in six of the past eight games between the Sooners and Cyclones. Oklahoma’s team total has also been UNDER in each of their last five regular season games to close out 2016.
For all of Iowa State’s star power, boasting arguably the best frontcourt player in the conference (F Georges Niang – 19.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and best point guard in the conference (G Monte Morris – 14.2 PPG, 7.1 APG, 1.7 TO), the best news for coach Steve Prohm’s club going into the postseason is that they’re getting a productive Jameel McKay (11.8 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.8 BPG) when they need him most.
McKay, their erstwhile senior rim-protector, allows Iowa State not to be a defensive sieve when he’s on the floor. The big man’s troubles with ineffectiveness and an in-season suspension have been well documented, as McKay hadn’t scored double-figures in a game from Jan. 16 until Feb. 22nd (11 games). McKay would struggle off the bench after suspensions and limited playing time reduced his effectiveness, as Iowa State would slump to 3-3 with McKay playing limited minutes. Over Iowa State’s final three games, McKay looked rejuvenated (13 PPG, 12 RPG) and minutes followed. The Cyclones would close out the season 2-1, their only loss in a hard fought defeat at Kansas where McKay put up 19 points and 9 rebounds.
Iowa State actually has a better scoring offense than the vaunted Sooners attack (82 PPG, 13th NCAA) and is second in the nation in shooting (50.3% FG). The Cyclones get their scoring from the field, making more shots per game than anyone else in the country (31.2 FGM) to offset their lack of free throw opportunities (16 FTA/game, 334th NCAA). Iowa State shoots 37.9% from deep and hits a solid 8.2 threes per game, as Matt Thomas (10.6 PPG, 43% 3PT) has been a consistent weapon from beyond the arc since taking over for injured Naz Long in December.
Niang, as you’d expect, has been brilliant in his senior season, scoring double-figures in every game including a 25.5 PPG average against Oklahoma (2 games). Mercurial offensive threats in F Abdel Nader (13.2 PPG) and G Deonte Burton (10 PPG) have both been effective against Oklahoma this season; Nader having scored 20 points in the home win over the Sooners on Jan. 18th, while Burton broke out with 19 points in 20 minutes in the road loss at Norman.
The supposed demise of coach Lon Kruger’s club that relies so much on perimeter shooting and the brilliance of G Buddy Hield (25.1 PPG, 49.5% FG, 47.3% 3PT) has been bandied about for over a month now, as the former No. 1 team in the land couldn’t possibly shoot like the Golden State Warriors over the course of a whole season. Yes, the Sooners have regressed, but they also are a sorely underrated defensive club (40.3% FG, 10.6 APG, 5.2 BPG, 17 fouls/game – all numbers that are top-40 in the nation).
Yet, the Sooners have big issues on the offensive glass, giving up 10 offensive boards per game, which leads to unsightly FGA/game numbers on defense (63.3 FGA, 333rd NCAA) and raises their PPG allowed to a mediocre 70.3 (128th NCAA).
Even with their late-season shooting slump, Oklahoma is still the best Power Six team from beyond the arc in the country (43% 3PT, 2nd NCAA) and they make 10.6 threes per game to boot. The Sooners shot 57% from the line and got outrebounded by 11 in their loss to Iowa State on Jan 18th, even though they shot 53% from three. Oddly enough, Oklahoma didn’t hit their shooting averages (42.7% FG, 37.9% 3PT) in their win over Iowa State on Jan. 2nd, but did hit their free throws to close out the game (85.7%) and rebounded with the Cyclones (40-39).
F Ryan Spangler (10.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG) is the only interior threat for Oklahoma, as he has the ability to go inside-out on offense and is their leading rebounder by a wide margin. Spangler shined with 20 points and 12 rebounds in the Jan. 2 win, but was invisible with 2 points and 6 rebounds in the most recent loss. Fair or not, Spangler’s performance has been the barometer for this matchup dating back to last season’s Big 12 tournament game, where the 6-foot-8 forward missed an open layup at the buzzer to potentially send this matchup into overtime.
G Jordan Woodard (12.9 PPG, 44% 3PT) and G Isaiah Cousins (13 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.4 APG), so spectacular as Hield’s running mates through February, have really lost some steam down the stretch, as Cousins is averaging 9 points on 28.9% FG in his last four and Woodard is also only averaging 9 points while turning it over 2.5 times per game (versus only 1.8 assists).
BUTLER BULLDOGS (21-9) vs. PROVIDENCE FRIARS (22-9)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Butler -3.5, Total: 146.5
Providence and Butler meet in the Big East tournament quarterfinals as they look to secure a bid to the Big Dance.
The prospects of earning high seeds in the NCAA tournament were promising for both Butler and Providence when they first met this season on New Year's Eve, when the No. 12 Friars outscored the No. 9 Bulldogs by 19 points in the second half en route to an 81-73 win (Butler -7.5) in Indianapolis.
As is often the case, Providence was led by G Kris Dunn (16.3 PPG, 6.4 APG, 5.7 RPG, 2.7 SPG)—the reigning Big East Player of the Year and a projected Top 5 pick in this June's NBA draft—as the junior guard put up 20 points, nine assists and seven boards in the road win. Dunn was held to nine points in the January 19 rematch, but that didn't stop the No. 16 Friars from pulling off another come-from-behind victory over the No. 18 Bulldogs, this time by a score of 81-78 (Butler -1).
These days, the outlook is slightly less rosy for both programs, as each is no longer ranked. Butler, in particular, will need a victory in Wednesday's Big East tournament quarterfinal to ensure an at-large bid to the Big Dance.
After a 1-5 stretch in February (0-6 ATS), Providence bounced back to win three straight games (3-0 ATS) to end its regular season at 22-9 (16-14 ATS) and earn a four seed for the Big East tournament. Key wins include a 69-65 victory against now-No. 15 Arizona (Zona -5.5) and a six-point road triumph over possible No. 1 seed Villanova (Nova -12.5).
Butler, the tournament's five seed, enters the matchup having won seven of nine (8-1 ATS) and boasting an overall record of 21-9 (16-12-2 ATS). The Bulldogs have not made a habit of taking down big-time opponents this year, but a December win over Purdue (Purdue -4.5) that gave the Boilermakers their first loss of the season stands out as particularly impressive.
Dunn is not only the leader for the Friars; he is one of college basketball's foremost stars. While Dunn receives the most attention of anyone on the team from national media, he's joined this year by teammate F Ben Bentil (21.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.1 BPG) as an anonymous First Team All-Big East selection.
Bentil, a sophomore from Ghana, came out of nowhere to lead the Big East in scoring and finished fifth in the conference in rebounds per game. He has also averaged 25.2 PPG in the Friars' last five contests, while Dunn has averaged 12.6 points per game over the same stretch. While the Friars may be able to escape Butler with only one member of the duo putting up big numbers, both players will have to be firing on all cylinders if Providence plans on making a serious run at the conference title.
Joining Dunn and Bentil in double-digit points-per-game scoring is F Rodney Bullock (11.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG). Bullock played a key role in each of Providence's wins over Butler this season, averaging 20.5 PPG and 9 RPG in the two contests. All in all, though, the Friars’ offense is not particularly strong, ranking seventh in the Big East with 74.2 PPG, and its .475 FG percentage is next to last in the 10-team conference.
The Friars are led on defense by Dunn, a hounding perimeter defender who is now a two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year. With a scoring defense of 69.8 points allowed per game, good for third in the Big East, the Friars' defense can be considered better than their offense. Their rebounding margin of +0.2, however, is worse than all other teams in the conference, save for lowly St. John's.
Butler, for its part, enters the postseason averaging 81.3 points per game, the most in the Big East and 17th in the nation. Its scoring margin, too, trumps the Friars', as the Bulldogs' +10.2 is 30th nationally, while Providence comes in at 112th with +4.3.
The Bulldogs get much of their scoring from senior G Kellen Dunham (16.2 PPG) and sophomore F Kelan Martin (16.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG). Dunham was snubbed for this year's All-Big East team after being selected each of the past two seasons, but he's been no slouch when it comes to scoring: He's shooting a career-best 43.6 percent from the field and a deadly 41.4 percent from deep.
Martin saw his playing time nearly double this year, and his solid, shorter build and versatile play from the small forward position remind some of Draymond Green in his Michigan State days. He's stepped up his scoring production toward the end of the season, putting up 19.7 PPG since the start of February.
Alongside Martin on the All-Big East team is 6'4" senior F Roosevelt Jones (14.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.5 SPG), who has made a habit of stuffing all areas of the stat sheet. If he were he averaging .2 more points per game, he'd be in the Top 10 in the Big East in scoring, passing and rebounding.
On defense, the Bulldogs surrender an average of 71.1 PPG, putting them in the middle of the pack in the Big East. That number may be overly flattering, though, as the team has been criticized at various points throughout the season for poor defensive effort, particularly in games away from home. Sophomore F Tyler Wideman (7.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.6 BPG) holds things down in the paint. He’s fourth in the Big East in blocks per game—but he's also second in fouls.
