Cnotes March NCAABB Conference Playoffs Thru The Madness Picks-Trends-News-Stats !!

[CNOTES]

*NCAAB
Short Sheet


Friday, March 4*

Buffalo at Bowling Green, 7:00 ET
Buffalo: 20-8 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less or pick
Bowling Green: 1-7 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent


Kent State at Akron, 7:00 ET
Kent St: 10-3 OVER after playing a home game
Akron: 9-2 ATS off a home win


Ohio at Miami OH, 7:00 ET
Ohio: 6-0 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog
Miami OH: 26-45 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins

Texas at Oklahoma State, 9:00 ET
Texas: 8-19 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6
Oklahoma St: 34-18 ATS after a combined score of 115 points or less

 

[CNOTES]

EMU at TOL 07:00 PM


TOL -9.0




BALL at NIU 07:00 PM


BALL +1.0 BEST BET


O 136.5 BEST BET




PENN at DART 07:00 PM


PENN +4.5




KENT at AKR 07:00 PM


KENT +8.0 BEST BET




BUFF at BGSU 07:00 PM


BGSU +2.5




PRIN at HARV 07:00 PM


HARV +7.0




MOSU at EVAN 07:00 PM


MOSU +13.5 BEST BET




BRWN at CLMB 07:00 PM


BRWN +14.5 BEST BET




OHIO at M-OH 07:00 PM


OHIO -2.5 BEST BET




WMU at CMU 07:00 PM


WMU +7.0 BEST BET




RID at MONM 07:00 PM


MONM -9.0 BEST BET




CIT at MER 07:30 PM


MER -9.5




PEAY at BEL 07:30 PM


PEAY +10.0

 

[CNOTES]

WEBB at CCAR 08:00 PM


WEBB +4.5 BEST BET




DEL at COFC 08:30 PM


DEL +7.0




USD at LMU 09:00 PM


USD +4.0 BEST BET




TEX at OKST 09:00 PM


OKST +5.0 BEST BET


U 128.0 BEST BET




CAN at IONA 09:30 PM


CAN +12.5 BEST BET




INST at ILST 09:30 PM


ILST -3.5 BEST BET




MORE at UTM 09:30 PM


UTM +5.0 BEST BET


O 135.0 BEST BET

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Hoyas (14-16) at Wildcats (26-4)
Date: March 05, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

A Big East regular-season title and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament are all familiar accomplishments for Villanova. Judgment, however, will come later this month under the white-hot national spotlight.


The third-ranked Wildcats will try to end the regular season on a positive note Saturday and send Georgetown to its longest losing streak in 12 years.


Villanova (26-4, 15-2) fell 90-83 at then-fifth-ranked Xavier on Feb. 24 to fall out of the top spot in the AP poll. The Wildcats, though, followed that up with consecutive wins, pounding DePaul 83-62 on Tuesday to sew up a third straight conference championship.


"It's something at the end of the year, we will take great pride in," coach Jay Wright said. "We really do take pride in the regular season. We evaluate our program by what we do in the regular season. That's how we make all our decisions."


That's not how the Wildcats will be remembered. Villanova, which won the conference tournament last season, hasn't advanced beyond the third round in the NCAA Tournament since 2009. The Wildcats were eliminated three times over that span as a No. 1 or 2 NCAA seed, including last year by eighth-seeded North Carolina State.


Villanova should at least be a second seed this time.


"We know that we get judged publicly by how you do in the tournament," Wright said.


Kris Jenkins could be a major factor in avoiding another early exit. The junior forward is averaging 23.0 points on 55.8 percent shooting and 18 of 35 from 3-point range over the last four games.


"My teammates do an unbelievable job of making the right play. Recently, the right play has just been to catch and shoot," said Jenkins, who set career highs with 31 points and eight 3-pointers Tuesday.


Jenkins has been limited to 7.5 points in his last four matchup with the Hoyas, scoring 10 while Josh Hart and Ryan Arcidiacono had 15 apiece in a 55-50 win Jan. 16.


Hart added 12 rebounds in that matchup, and he enters this one averaging 18.0 points over the last four games.


Villanova has won five of the last six meetings with Georgetown (14-16, 7-10), including three straight at home.


The Hoyas are in danger of losing six straight for the first time since dropping the final nine games of 2003-04.


Snapping the skid would give Georgetown the seventh seed in the Big East tournament if Marquette loses at Butler, giving the Hoyas the tiebreaker. Although, it seems more likely they'll finish eighth, setting up a first-round matchup versus DePaul with the winner advancing to face Villanova.


The Hoyas would've had the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Golden Eagles, but lost 88-87 at Marquette on Tuesday. D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera put Georgetown ahead with 8 seconds left before fouling Luke Fisher with 1.2 to go, leading to the two decisive free throws.


Smith-Rivera is averaging 19.5 points over the last four games, but he's been held to 11.7 on 34.8 percent shooting in six career meetings with the Wildcats. He scored 15 and matched his career high with six turnovers in the most recent matchup.


He only had two points and missed 6 of 7 from the field in a 69-53 loss in the most recent visit to Wells Fargo Center on Feb. 7, 2015.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Buckeyes (19-11) at Spartans (25-5)
Date: March 05, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

(AP) - Magic Johnson, Draymond Green and Denzel Valentine. Just a couple years ago, putting Valentine in the same sentence with those former Michigan State greats would not have made sense.


The do-it-all senior guard, though, has earned the right to be mentioned in the same breath with one of the greatest basketball players in the history of the game and a current NBA All-Star.


Valentine plans to follow the Michigan State tradition of kissing the green Spartan head in the middle of the Breslin Center floor Saturday when he plays his last home game for the second-ranked Spartans against Ohio State.


"We still have a national championship to win," Valentine said. "It's going to be emotional, but at the same time, we've got a lot of season left.


"The (former Michigan State players) who have separated themselves are the people who went to multiple Final Fours and are championship players. I want to be a part of that group."


Following a relatively slow start to his college career, Valentine is closing it by averaging a combination of points, assists and rebounds no one has in at least three decades - likely boosting his chances of becoming the national player of the year.


Valentine is averaging a Big Ten-best 19.3 points and 7.3 assists and ranks among conference leaders with 7.6 rebounds for the Spartans (25-5, 12-5), who can clinch the second seed in next week's league tournament with a win over the Buckeyes (19-11, 11-6).


He's on pace to become the first player to average at least 19 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in a season since at least 1983-84, when the NCAA began recognizing assists as an official statistic. He is the only player in Michigan State's storied history to rank among the top 10 in both assists and rebounds.


Valentine has been spectacular during a recent stretch in which the Spartans have won nine of 10, averaging 21 points, 8.4 assists and 7.7 rebounds. He finished with 14 points, eight boards and eight assists Wednesday in a 97-66 victory at Rutgers that was Michigan State's fifth in a row.


Fellow senior Bryn Forbes was the story that night, though, with a career-high 33 points on a Big Ten-record 11 3-pointers. Forbes is the nation's leading 3-point shooter at 51.5 percent, helping the Spartans lead the country with a 43.7 mark as a team.


Matt Costello, who also will be playing his final game at the Breslin Center, had 10 points and a career high-tying 15 rebounds.


"Beating Ohio State is probably the biggest thing going through my head right now," Costello said. "Once we take care of that, it'll be easier to reflect on the season before the Big Ten (tournament)."


Forbes had 27 points while hitting 7 3s in an 81-62 victory at Ohio State on Feb. 23 - the Spartans' third straight win in the series. That's the only defeat for the Buckeyes in their last six as they push towards an NCAA Tournament berth.


Ohio State helped its cause Sunday when Marc Loving scored 25 points and Keita Bates-Diop added 19 in a 68-64 home victory over then-No. 8 Iowa.


Although the Buckeyes have dropped their last three visits to East Lansing, each contest was decided by four points or fewer, including one in overtime.


"Obviously (Forbes) is shooting the ball at a level right now that's as good as anybody in the country, probably including (Golden State Warriors standout) Steph Curry," coach Thad Matta said with a laugh.


"We made some mistakes going into (the last meeting) and we've made some changes of how we want to guard. Hopefully we'll be better at it."


Michigan State is 19-2 when attempting at least 20 3-pointers.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Commodores (19-11) at Aggies (23-7)
Date: March 05, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

Though neither took the easiest path, both Texas A&M and Vanderbilt sit in desirable positions entering the SEC regular season's final day.


The 20th-ranked Aggies can clinch the conference tournament's top seed with a home win over the resurgent Commodores, who head into Saturday's matchup still with a shot of earning a share of the league title.


Texas A&M (19-11, 12-5) already has clinched at least a piece of its first SEC crown during a season in which it has endured plenty of ups and downs. The Aggies won their first seven league games, then lost their next five before regrouping with five consecutive victories - none bigger than a 79-77 overtime win over Kentucky on Feb. 20.


That result gives the Aggies the tiebreaker on the Wildcats should both win Saturday to finish tied for first place, providing extra incentive for the Aggies' senior core of Danuel House, Jalen Jones, Alex Caruso and Anthony Collins in their final Reed Arena game.


"They deserve a special night and an SEC title for the team because we work so hard," freshman center Tyler Davis said. "I really can't wait to play.'


Standing in the Aggies' way is the conference's other red-hot team. Vanderbilt (19-11, 11-6) has remained in the title chase by winning its last four, including last Saturday's 74-62 victory over then-No. 16 Kentucky that followed a pivotal road win over Florida on Feb. 23.


The Commodores could create a four-way tie for first should they win and LSU defeats Kentucky. Vanderbilt would be the No. 2 seed in that scenario, behind LSU and one spot ahead of Texas A&M.


Vanderbilt also could fall out of the top four, thereby losing a double-bye to the quarterfinals, if it loses and South Carolina wins at Arkansas.


Just getting to this point seemed unthinkable two months back, when the Commodores lost their first three league games and appeared a longshot for an NCAA Tournament bid. They've since won 11 of 14 as one of the SEC's most talented rosters has finally come together.


Among the top defensive teams throughout the league season, Vanderbilt averaged 73.8 points through 10 SEC games but has raised that mark to 81.9 while winning six of the last seven. Center Damian Jones is averaging 17.4 points on 66.3 percent shooting over that stretch, and the Commodores have been outstanding at taking care of the ball, committing eight or fewer turnovers in five of their last six.


"We've been doing very well," point guard Wade Baldwin IV said after Tuesday's 86-69 win over Tennessee. "We have two tremendous big men (Jones and Luke Kornet) that create a lot of space in the paint, and can rebound the ball. We have guys that can defend, and for that span we defended really well, got rebounds, and played Vanderbilt basketball."


The Commodores, second in the SEC in field goal percentage defense (38.4), held Texas A&M to 36.8 percent in a 77-60 victory in Nashville on Feb. 4. House and Jones, the Aggies' top two scorers, combined for 14 points on 3-of-21 shooting.


Vanderbilt, however, has lost 10 straight on the road to ranked teams since beating No. 14 Marquette on Dec. 29, 2011. Four of those defeats have come this season.


Texas A&M, 16-1 at home, has emerged from its midseason slump by regaining its defensive edge and ferociously attacking the glass. Leading the SEC in scoring defense, the Aggies are yielding 66.2 points per game over the streak while owning a plus-8.0 rebounding margin. They outrebounded Auburn 51-27 in Tuesday's 81-63 win.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Sooners (23-6) at Horned Frogs (11-19)
Date: March 05, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

A win over Baylor this week kept Oklahoma in the hunt for a second-place finish in the Big 12. If the Sooners take care of business in their finale Saturday at last-place TCU, they'll be rooting for the Bears to bounce back.


Sixth-ranked Oklahoma (23-6, 11-6) beat No. 19 Baylor 73-71 on Tuesday before No. 10 West Virginia rolled to a 90-68 win over Texas Tech the next night, moving the Mountaineers one game ahead of the Sooners.


Oklahoma, though, swept the season series with West Virginia, so it would clinch second place if it gets past TCU (11-19, 2-15) and the Mountaineers lose at Baylor.


The Sooners have beaten the Horned Frogs five straight times, winning 95-72 on Feb. 2, but they aren't going to take them lightly considering how Tuesday's game finished.


Oklahoma blew a 26-point lead on Senior Night and was outscored 46-27 in the second half before holding off the Bears for its third win in four games.


'You can't afford to do that, especially this time of year,' coach Lon Kruger said. 'Obviously, you get into tournament play, and one bad stretch can cost you and end it all very quickly.'


The home careers of seniors Buddy Hield, Ryan Spangler and Isaiah Cousins came to an end. Hield scored 23, Spangler added 15 points, 13 rebounds and a season-high five assists and Cousins hit a jumper to put Oklahoma ahead after Baylor took a 68-67 lead.


'We were just stagnant,' said Hield, a national player of the year candidate who's second in the nation with 25.3 points per game and first with 121 made 3-pointers. 'Thank God Isaiah could step up and make a big shot. We really needed it. He picked us up enough.'


The trio has started each game since the beginning of the 2013-14 season, going 70-27. They'll take the court Saturday for the final time in the regular season before trying to lead the Sooners to their first conference tournament title since winning three in a row from 2001-03.


'I'm proud of these guys. These guys have been outstanding,' Kruger said. 'I can't imagine three guys in the country who have impacted, in one class, a program more than these guys have. It's a special, special group and we'll feel their impact for a long time after the next month or so.'


Oklahoma now finishes up on the road, where it's dropped three of four while averaging 67.8 points and shooting 39.8 percent overall and 29.4 from beyond the arc. On the season, the Sooners score 81.1 points per game and shoot 45.7 percent and 42.8 from 3.


They have a good chance to reach those numbers against TCU, which has allowed opponents to average 79.3 points, shoot 47.4 percent and hit 41.1 percent from 3 during a six-game losing streak.


Kansas State made 56.5 percent of its shots and went 10 for 19 from behind the arc to rout visiting TCU 79-54 on Wednesday.


'That was a good 'ol fashion beat down,' coach Trent Johnson said. 'I had concerns going in because we were fatigued. But I don't want to take anything away from K-State - they shot the ball really well.'


Defense, though, hasn't been the only problem for the Horned Frogs. They're last in Big 12 play with 62.5 points per game and a 38.1 field-goal percentage.


TCU has dropped 14 straight and 35 of 36 against Top 25 teams. Its 10 such losses this season have come by an average of 15.8 points.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Bluejays (18-12) at Musketeers (25-4)
Date: March 05, 2016 2:30 PM EDT

Xavier has locked up the No. 2 seed for the Big East tournament. Its next task is trying to nail down the same spot for the NCAA Tournament.


The fifth-ranked Musketeers (25-4, 13-4) host Creighton in their regular-season finale Saturday after being idle since a 90-81 loss at Seton Hall on Sunday. The letdown coach Chris Mack feared for his team after beating then-No. 1 Villanova in its previous game materialized as the Pirates stormed to a 19-point halftime lead and shot 50.0 percent overall.


The goal now is to bounce back ahead of next week's conference tournament at Madison Square Garden, though Xavier also has a chance to avenge one of its Big East setbacks. The Musketeers had their worst offensive performance of the season in Omaha on Feb. 9, falling behind 21-4 and shooting 1 for 21 from 3-point range and 30.0 percent overall in a 70-56 defeat.


"We had an opportunity to give our players a little more rest than they normally get at this time of year," Mack said Friday, referring to the break in his team's schedule. "They had our number in Omaha, were quick to tell us about it and our guys are competitive. Hopefully we're much better than we were the first time we faced them."


Though the Musketeers are seeking their 10th win in 12 games, defense is a concern. Xavier has allowed an average of 76.1 points over the last eight, well above its season mark of 69.7. One reason may be that Big East opponents appear to be scheming better against the Musketeers' 1-3-1 zone defense - four of the seven teams scored more points in the second matchup of the season.


It will be the last home game for Musketeers seniors James Farr and Remy Abell. Farr has averaged 13.7 points while making 15 of 23 shots in his last three games.


"They've sacrificed a lot, they've always put the team first," Mack said. "It says a lot about them that the guys younger than them play together and play hard. Xavier's always been led by its older players and this year isn't any different."


Creighton (18-12, 9-8) could be seeded from fourth through sixth for the Big East tournament and would claim the No. 4 seed with a victory and a loss by Providence at St. John's. The Bluejays are trying to avoid a fourth loss in five games following a 70-66 road defeat to the Friars on Wednesday.


James Milliken scored a career-high 26 points on 8-of-13 shooting, including 4 of 6 from 3-point range, but his teammates shot a combined 15 of 44. Maurice Watson Jr., who scored a career-best 32 points in last month's win over Xavier, was held to a season-low six while making 2 of 9 shots.


Supersub Cole Huff had a solid effort despite shooting 4 of 12 with 10 points and nine rebounds, and he's averaged 11.5 points and 8.3 boards in his last four games.


Perimeter defense has been a bellwether for Creighton's success in Big East play. The Bluejays have limited foes to 29.1 percent shooting from beyond the arc in their wins and 35.0 in their defeats.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Hurricanes (24-5) at Hokies (17-13)
Date: March 05, 2016 4:00 PM EDT

Miami showed some eagerness to capture an ACC regular-season title with a spectacular start to its latest game.


The seventh-ranked Hurricanes can secure at least a share of the crown with another road victory Saturday against Virginia Tech.


Miami (24-5, 13-4) scored the first 12 points and 21 of the first 24 on Wednesday en route to a 68-50 victory at Notre Dame, its eighth in nine games. Angel Rodriguez matched a season high with 19 points in the Hurricanes' most-lopsided conference victory this season.


"I just really want to win an ACC championship, and we're in a position to do that," Rodriguez said. "I thought we were more physical than them. It seemed like we wanted it more."


Miami, tied with North Carolina atop the ACC, is seeking its second regular-season league title in four seasons. The Hurricanes finished one game ahead of Duke in 2012-13, and would own another outright crown with a win coupled with the No. 17 Blue Devils beating eighth-ranked UNC on Saturday night.


"They know where we are in the standings. They know how close we are to finishing the regular season on a very high note," coach Jim Larranaga said.


Miami will try to do its part by earning a sixth consecutive win over Virginia Tech (17-13, 9-8). The Hurricanes have won the past four meetings by an average of 17.7 points, and a 65-49 victory Feb. 17 was their most lopsided in ACC play until Wednesday.


They held the Hokies to 29.6 percent shooting, their worst performance since February 2008.


Virginia Tech has responded with four straight wins, its longest in ACC play since a five-game run in February 2010. The Hokies, though, earned three of those victories against teams that are currently 11th or worse in the 15-team league.


They claimed their most high-profile win in that bunch Wednesday by beating Pittsburgh 65-61. Virginia Tech and Pitt are among four teams tied for seventh place in the conference.


The Hokies were 2-16 in each of their previous two ACC campaigns and have finished with at least a share of last place in each of their past four.


"Hopefully we can keep that momentum going against Miami," junior guard Devin Wilson said.


Zach LeDay led the way with 20 points and 10 rebounds in the Hokies' third consecutive home win. Virginia Tech has lost 11 of 12 visits from ranked teams, earning that victory over then-No. 4 Virginia on Jan. 4, and has dropped 24 of 25 overall to Top 25 foes.


LeDay, averaging a team-best 15.1 points and 7.7 rebounds, was held to six points and three boards in 22 foul-plagued minutes against Miami 2 1/2 weeks ago. The Hokies' second-leading scorer, Seth Allen (13.9 ppg), also dealt with the same issue and finished with five points on 1-of-6 shooting.


Miami's Sheldon McClellan, who averages a team-best 15.6 points, also had foul woes but scored 11, among his streak of 17 double-digit scoring performances. Rodriguez led all scorers with 14 points on 6-of-10 shooting.


The Hurricanes won 82-61 at Virginia Tech last March, the only road victory in their streak against the Hokies.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Ducks (24-6) at Trojans (20-10)
Date: March 05, 2016 4:00 PM EDT

Oregon has secured the No. 1 seed in the Pac-12 tournament and at least a share of the conference title for the first time in 14 years.


However, that doesn't make Saturday's regular-season finale at Southern California meaningless.


The ninth-ranked Ducks have their sights set on the outright championship when they face a Trojans team that has dropped 11 straight in the series.


Oregon (24-6, 13-4) will finish at least tied for first place in the conference for the first time since 2002 after winning 76-68 at UCLA on Wednesday.


The Ducks hold a one-game lead over No. 13 Utah, which hosts Colorado on Saturday night in its finale. An Oregon win or loss by the Utes gives the Ducks the outright title, and they will be the top seed in the Pac-12 tournament regardless of Saturday's results because they swept Utah this season.


Freshman guard Tyler Dorsey had 20 points and a season-high nine rebounds to lead four Oregon players in double-figure scoring against the Bruins.


'Now we need to go beat USC to be the only one at No. 1,' Dorsey said. 'We're not going to celebrate until we finish off USC.'


Oregon has won four straight and 10 of 12, a stretch that began with an 89-81 victory over then-No. 21 USC (20-10, 9-8) on Jan. 21. Senior forward Elgin Cook tied a career high with 26 points, while freshman forward Bennie Boatwright scored a season-best 23 for the Trojans.


USC entered that matchup 3-1 in conference play and went on to win seven of its first 10 in Pac-12 action before seeing its hopes of a league title dashed.


The Trojans lost five of their next six before beating Oregon State 81-70 on Wednesday, ending a three-game losing streak and giving them 20 victories for the first time since 2008-09. Their previous two defeats were by a combined 42 points.


'It felt like we got back to being the team that won 19 games,' said leading scorer Jordan McLaughlin, who had 17 points and nine assists. 'This week on film we watched some of our good games. We got into the film room and we got our confidence back.'


The Trojans have been a confident bunch at the Galen Center, but they've dropped five in a row at home to the Ducks.


'We're 16-1 on our home floor, so whatever magic they have needs to happen on Saturday because Oregon is one of the top teams in the country,' coach Andy Enfield said.


The Ducks need one more win to set a school record with 103 over a four-season span, while USC is on track to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in five years.


'We're just excited to have won 20 games,' Enfield said. 'Forget about any tournaments. We still have a lot to play for. We've got a big game Saturday, and then the Pac-12 tournament. Whatever happens after that, we'll be thankful for it.'


USC had lost 12 of 13 meetings with Top 25 teams before splitting four this season.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Cyclones (21-9) at Jayhawks (26-4)
Date: March 05, 2016 4:00 PM EDT

(AP) - Perry Ellis has had one of the most decorated careers at Kansas, but it has not come without disappointment and despair.


The Jayhawks have mostly struggled in the postseason in his tenure, but before Ellis begins his quest for a national championship he'll step foot on the hallowed floor of Allen Fieldhouse for the last time Saturday against a 21st-ranked Iowa State that has had Kansas' number of late.


Ellis scored 20 points as No. 1 Kansas (26-4, 14-3 Big 12) won 86-56 at No. 23 Texas on Monday to clinch the outright conference championship, the 12th straight time the Jayhawks earned at least a share of the title.


'That was definitely motivation. We didn't want to come out flat and thinking the league was over. We wanted to come out and win it outright,' guard Devonte' Graham said.


Now that the regular-season title is wrapped up, Ellis' motivation is to deliver Kansas fans their first national championship since 2008. They'll get to see him for the final time in Lawrence on Saturday, and he should receive a rousing ovation despite some of those fans making the Wichita, Kansas native a scapegoat for the Jayhawks' postseason shortcomings.


Ellis has been part of 108 wins and has 1,645 points and 792 rebounds, joining Danny Manning, Nick Collison, Raef LaFrentz, Clyde Lovellette and Dave Robisch as the only Jayhawks to achieve those kinds of marks.


'He's got a chance to be in the top 10 in both at our school in scoring in rebounding, and that's a pretty special deal,' coach Bill Self said. 'And he didn't start as a freshman.'


Kansas, though, has twice failed to make it out of the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament and captured just one Big 12 tournament title since he joined the team in 2012-13.


Those disappointing results haven't made Ellis question his decision to attend Kansas.


'When I was growing up, I didn't see myself going anywhere else,' he said. 'It's been great. Each year I've had more and more fun, got better and better. And now I'm just looking to finish strong.'


The Jayhawks take a 10-game winning streak into this meeting with the Cyclones (21-9, 10-7), who handed them their last loss Jan. 25. Iowa State has won four of the past five meetings, including eliminating Kansas both times en route to winning the last two conference tournament titles.


The Cyclones, however, have lost 10 straight visits to Kansas and the Jayhawks own the nation's longest active home winning streak at 41.


'Obviously we got a great task in front of us on Saturday to finish up the regular season,' first-year Cyclones coach Steve Prohm said.


Iowa State enters with three wins in four games after beating Oklahoma State 58-50 on Monday. Seniors Abdel Nader and Georges Niang combined for 36 points.


They totaled that same amount in January's meeting with Kansas while junior guard Monte Morris scored 21. Ellis had 23 points, and he leads the Jayhawks with 17.5 per game in conference action.


'He's just steady,' Self said. 'I think that's something that we've really grown to not only to respect, but also at times to take for granted, because he has been so steady.'

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Tar Heels (24-6) at Blue Devils (22-8)
Date: March 05, 2016 6:30 PM EDT

With North Carolina focused on clinching its first regular-season ACC title in four years, Marcus Paige admits it would be nice to celebrate at Cameron Indoor Stadium.


The eighth-ranked Tar Heels have a heartbreaking home defeat to No. 17 Duke last month still fresh in their minds as they try to snap a four-game slide in the series Saturday night.


Coach Roy Williams said the loss was "tough to swallow" on Feb. 17 when North Carolina (24-6, 13-4) had an eight-point advantage with 6:49 remaining before the Blue Devils rallied to go ahead with 1:09 left and came up with a couple of late stops in a 74-73 win at Chapel Hill.


"We know there's nothing we can do about the past," Paige said, "but we can change a lot about how we play (Saturday)."


Paige, who had seven points on 2-of-10 shooting in the first meeting, said the Tar Heels didn't have time to hang their heads as they won three of the next four games. A victory in Durham will give them at least a share of their first ACC title since 2011-12 and the conference tournament's top seed, while both of those will still happen with a loss should Miami and Virginia fall as well.


The last time North Carolina won at Cameron was also the last time they won a conference title.


"If you told us we had one game to be ACC champs, then obviously that would be the biggest game for us in our careers since we haven't won anything like that," Paige said. "So the fact that it is in Cameron and we haven't won there, just elevates that even further."


The senior point guard looks to regroup after he had just six points on 2-of-10 shooting and eight assists in Monday's 75-70 win over Syracuse in the home finale. Brice Johnson led the way with 14 points and 10 rebounds, and he's averaged 18.7 and 11.5 in his last six games.


Johnson also has been a force against the Tar Heels' biggest rival, averaging 19.8 points and 11.8 rebounds in the last four meetings. He had a big game with 29 and 19 in February, when North Carolina outrebounded Duke 46-34 but went 1 for 13 from 3-point range.


Johnson and Kennedy Meeks finished with 18 points apiece but Paige had five on 2-of-11 shooting in a 92-90 overtime defeat in the most recent meeting in Durham on Feb. 18, 2015.


"If we happen to win, I'm not going to go around the locker room screaming and chanting that we beat Duke," Williams said. "They're a great program, great team and we have battles every year with them, but we have a chance to win a conference championship."


The Blue Devils (22-8, 11-6) had dropped two of three after beating the Tar Heels before Tuesday's 79-71 home win over Wake Forest. Grayson Allen had 30 points while Brandon Ingram added 15 points and 11 rebounds and Marshall Plumlee had 13 and 17.


Allen, second in the conference with 21.2 points per game, scored 23 against the Tar Heels. Ingram, the ACC Freshman of the Year favorite, also came through with 20 and 10 boards.


'It's definitely a big game,' said Ingram, who chose Duke over North Carolina, 'and there's definitely motivation, but I'm with my team now."


The Blue Devils, seeking their sixth straight home win, hope to regain their touch after shooting a combined 36.9 percent in their last two games. The Tar Heels, though, rank third in the ACC in defensive field-goal percentage (41.4) and held Duke to 41.5 percent in Chapel Hill.


North Carolina has won its last four at Cameron when entering as a top-10 team.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Hawkeyes (20-9) at Wolverines (20-10)
Date: March 05, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

Careers that started with so much promise are winding down for Michigan's Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht as spectators of a mediocre season. For Iowa, a season that built so much promise two months ago is winding down with a lengthy losing streak.


Both conclude the regular season Saturday night in Ann Arbor jockeying for position in the Big Ten tournament with the Wolverines seeking a win over the 16th-ranked Hawkeyes to pad a questionable NCAA Tournament resume.


It was nearly three years ago that LeVert and Albrecht carved out reserve roles as freshmen on a national finalist team, followed by sophomore seasons as more heavily featured players on a team that fell three points short of returning to the Final Four.


Their Crisler Center send-off now comes with both shut down for the season, though Albrecht could redshirt, as Michigan (20-10, 10-7) tries to start cleaning up a 3-5 span since the start of February with a third straight home win.


"I always say my first two years, I thought it was just like a walk in the park: We're going to win a lot of games, not much adversity," said Albrecht, who had hip surgery last offseason and has played eight games in 2015-16 while LeVert announced this week that his season is done after dealing with a lingering leg issue for two months. "Everything's going great when you're winning. Last year and this year, a little bit of a reality check."


Iowa (20-9, 11-6), meanwhile, has lost four in a row and is one game ahead of the Wolverines after starting conference play 7-0 and climbing as high as No. 3, yet coach Fran McCaffery considered Tuesday's 81-78 home loss to No. 12 Indiana the bounce-back effort the Hawkeyes needed.


"I think we already have. I'm not worried about that at all," said McCaffery, whose team needs a victory and additional help to secure a top-four spot and double-bye in the conference tournament. "We were in a position to win. We fought."


To be fair, none of Iowa's losses have been terribly alarming. They've all come by eight points or fewer, making it one of six teams to not lose a game by double figures. Though the fact remains the Hawkeyes are in danger of dropping five straight for the first time since a six-game skid in 2010-11 because they've fallen off offensively.


Iowa has averaged 69.0 points and shot 38.3 percent overall and 32.9 from 3-point range on the slide after being at 78.2, 45.3 and 39.0 over its 11-2 Big Ten start. Top scorer Jarrod Uthoff has been a big part of the dip, shooting 31.6 percent and going 6 of 25 from long range. No. 2 scorer Peter Jok has consistently fallen off over the last four games from 28 points to eight and is shooting 36.5 percent.


"We need to play together, have a positive vibe and go out there and win," Uthoff told the school's official website. "I am sick of losing."


The impressive 13-game start to conference play included an 82-71 home win over Michigan with Uthoff scoring 23. The Hawkeyes have won the last three meetings by an average of 15.7 points while shooting 53.2 percent and 48.0 from deep.


Michigan, which can't finish higher than seventh, will be happy to play at home after Sunday's 68-57 loss to Wisconsin dropped it to 3-5 on the road in the Big Ten. Regardless of venue, the Wolverines' struggles over the past eight games have come defensively with opponents shooting 50.3 percent and 38.8 from 3-point range after entering that span at 42.4 and 33.5.

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Cardinals (23-7) at Cavaliers (23-6)
Date: March 05, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

Damion Lee and Trey Lewis transfered to Louisville for their final season of eligibility in part to compete for a national championship under coach Rick Pitino.


A share of the regular-season ACC title would be a nice parting gift, but there's obviously a great deal of disappointment surrounding the No. 11 Cardinals heading into Saturday night's visit to Virginia knowing they won't be playing in the postseason.


The fourth-ranked Cavaliers, on the other hand, can boost their case for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a second victory over the Cardinals, and both may know if they've received the help necessary for their conference title hopes by tipoff.


Lee came to Louisville (23-7, 12-5) as a senior transfer after averaging 21.6 points for Drexel last season. His 16.2 per game lead the Cardinals, with Lewis second at 11.4 after transferring from Cleveland State.


Their one season under Pitino will come to an dissatisfying end, though, after Louisville self-imposed a postseason ban in the wake of a scandal in which Pitino maintains he played no role.


Lee hit two late free throws and scored 14 points in his final home contest Tuesday and the Cardinals held on to beat Georgia Tech 56-53.


After the game, Pitino presented rings to Lee and Lewis and a highlight video to the tune of "One Shining Moment," which is the NCAA Tournament's trademark song and is played following the national championship game each year.


"It's amazing that they never got bitter, never complained, never said 'the university let us down,' they never did any of that," Pitino said. "They always said the right thing. We understand and I told them some people do the wrong things and unfortunately we have to pay the penalties for it. But they never hung their heads."


Pitino is so bitter about the self-imposed sanctions that NCAA Tournament coverage will have one less viewer.


"None of us are going to get the experience of fighting," Pitino said. "I'm not turning it on. I'm not going to watch. I'm just going to hope for the best and some of my friends maybe have a chance to win it."


Louisville also won't be competing in next week's ACC tournament, but it still can win a share of the regular-season crown. Miami needs to lose at Virginia Tech and Duke would have to beat North Carolina earlier in the day, and the Cardinals would then have to beat Virginia (23-6, 12-5).


The same scenario exists for the Cavaliers, who held then-No. 16 Louisville to 32.7 percent shooting in a 63-47 road victory in the first matchup Jan. 30. Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill scored 13 apiece in that contest and will both be playing their final home game in this meeting.


Virginia lost at Miami on Feb. 22, but Brogdon had 26 points in a 79-74 win over the then-No. 7 Tar Heels on Feb. 27 before netting 18 in Tuesday's 64-57 victory at Clemson.


The Cavaliers hope to have a chance at a third straight regular-season ACC title, but they also have their sights set on a deep NCAA run after winning three games over the last two years combined.


"I want to win a national championship," Brogdon said. "Those are the reasons why we play. At the same time, we're going to control what we can control (in the ACC race), and that's win out this season. We want to beat Louisville to end the season."

 

[CNOTES]

Preview: Buffaloes (21-9) at Utes (23-7)
Date: March 05, 2016 9:30 PM EDT

(AP) - Utah still has a chance to share the Pac-12 regular-season championship for the first time joining the conference in 2011-12.


The 13th-ranked Utes are in the midst of their best stretch of the season with a six-game winning streak, and the improved play of seniors Brandon Taylor and Jordan Loveridge may be the biggest difference.


Taylor and Loveridge will take the floor at the Huntsman Center for the final time Saturday night against Colorado, which lost on a late hoop in the first meeting.


The Utes (23-7, 12-5) upset then-No. 9 Arizona 70-64 at home last Saturday and were rewarded with their highest ranking of the season this week. If Utah beats the Buffaloes (21-9, 10-7) and No. 9 Oregon - which has locked up the No. 1 seed for the Pac-12 tournament - loses at Southern California, the Utes will earn a share of the title.


Taylor and Loveridge were simply off for a period of the conference season, but they've improved their numbers across the board during the win streak.


Taylor's scoring average increased by three (12.5) and his assists by nearly two (5.3). The point guard's shooting percentage went from 37.8 in the first 11 Pac-12 games to 52.9 in the last six. His 3-point percentage has gone from 32.8 to 55.9.


Loveridge's points in conference action have gone from 9.5 to 14.0. The forward's shooting percentage has gone from 36.7 to 41.8 and the 3-point numbers have increased from 38.1 to 40.8.


Taylor said he was at 'the bottom of the bottom' after missing two free throws with 1.8 seconds left in a 70-68 defeat at Stanford on Jan. 1 and making bigger mistakes in back-to-back road losses to Oregon and Oregon State last month.


The Utes led by one point with 3 seconds left against the Beavers, but Taylor fouled Stephen Thompson Jr. on a halfcourt heave with 1 second remaining. Thompson hit all three free throws to win the game.


'I was so down and out, it didn't make any sense,' Taylor said. 'It was just like, you've done this all your life. You know how to get through situations. You've been through way harder stuff.


'I knew those tough times weren't going to last.'


Loveridge admitted he had begun to slack on some of the details. Things came to a head after the losses on the Oregon trip where the team 'didn't like that feeling, that taste we had,' according to Loveridge.


'I just had to take a step back and realize you don't get that many more (opportunities),' Loveridge said. 'Just knowing that if I want to have a future and help my team right now, I have to play hard every possession and try to make the most of every possession.


'When your days are numbered, it's going to be human nature (to take it up another notch). ... Me and Brandon definitely know there aren't many games left.'


Coach Larry Krystkowiak points to the defense for the recent success, but life is much better for the Utes when shots fall and the offense flows.


'Let's try to get clicking on as many cylinders as we can this time of year and get as many guys playing well right now,' he said. 'That's important because we're in March.'


Colorado played well last week, posting its own upset of Arizona and beating Arizona State to tie the school record for most regular-season wins. The Buffaloes are on track to return to the NCAA Tournament after having a three-year run end last season.


'We're going to take the mojo and what we've learned from the entire season and make a final push,' leading scorer and senior forward Josh Scott said.


Sunday's 79-69 victory over the Sun Devils gave Colorado a 16-1 home record, with the loss coming Jan. 8 when Lorenzo Bonam hit a floater with 1.1 seconds remaining to give the Utes a 56-54 win - their fourth straight in the series.


'I'll be honest,' Scott said. 'I think the word for us is payback. They beat us on our home court and we'd like to get them back. I'm not going to shy around from saying that. That's something all of us want.'

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Top Action
March 4, 2016




IOWA STATE CYCLONES (21-9, 10-7 Big 12) at KANSAS JAYHAWKS (26-4, 14-3 Big 12)


Allen Fieldhouse - Lawrence, KS
Tip-off: Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kansas -8.5


No. 1 Kansas aims for an 11th straight win on Saturday while trying to avenge an earlier loss to No. 21 Iowa State.


The Cyclones (13-13-1 ATS overall) enter this contest with two straight home wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma State, but they have allowed a whopping 94.0 PPG during a current three-game road losing skid at Texas Tech, Baylor and West Virginia.


The Jayhawks (18-9 ATS overall) are 9-1 ATS during their 10-game win streak, which includes an 86-56 romp at Texas on Monday. That victory clinched their 12th straight Big 12 regular-season title, which matches UCLA's record run from 1967 to 1979. But Iowa State was the last team to hand Kansas a defeat, prevailing 85-72 on Jan. 25 in a game where both schools made at least 50% FG. That was ISU's fourth win in the past five games in this series (SU and ATS), but the school is just 2-11 in its past 13 trips to Allen Fieldhouse.


The Cyclones are happy the new month is here, based on their perfect 5-0 record (4-0-1 ATS) versus Big 12 teams last March, which included a 70-66 conference championship win over KU. But the Jayhawks are 12-4 ATS following an ATS win this season, and have yet to lose at home (13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS), where they are outscoring teams by 19.5 PPG.


Iowa State is an explosive offensive squad with 82.2 PPG (14th in nation) on a blistering 50% FG (2nd in D-I) and 38% threes (41st in nation). This is an average foul-shooting team at 70% FT (156th in D-I) that rarely gets to the line with a mere 475 free-throw attempts (337th in nation). However, the school has a strong 1.47 Ast/TO ratio (23rd in D-I) because it usually makes the extra pass (16.8 APG, 20th in nation) and rarely turns the ball over (11.4 TOPG, 57th in D-I). Iowa State does not have a very tough defense, allowing 74.5 PPG (243rd in nation) on 43.3% FG (171st in D-I) and 33.9% threes (145th in nation), but it stays out of trouble with the fewest amount of personal fouls in D-I (15.4 per game).


Two upperclassmen carry this program, senior F Georges Niang (19.3 PPG, 2nd in Big 12) and junior PG Monte Morris (14.3 PPG), whose stellar 4.1 Ast/TO ratio ranks fifth in the nation, while his 7.2 APG rank seventh in the land. The burly 6-foot-8 Niang rarely takes a bad shot, as evidenced by his conference-leading 54% FG, plus 38% threes and 81% FT (6th in Big 12) this season. He also grabs 6.2 RPG, dishes out 3.2 APG, and has a current streak of 39 straight double-figure scoring games dating to last season. During his 11 straight contests of 14+ points, Niang recorded 19 points (8-of-17 FG) and six rebounds in the Jan. 25 win over Kansas. Morris also stepped up huge that game with 21 points, nine assists and four rebounds, but has gone cold in his past four contests with only 7.5 PPG on 10-of-27 shooting (37%).


Senior F/C Jameel McKay (11.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) has six double-doubles this season and has tallied 20 points and 27 rebounds (8 offensive) during his team's two-game win streak.


Junior G Matt Thomas (10.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG) is the school's best long-range shooter, as he is making 43% of his threes this season. Thomas has averaged 14.0 PPG (15-of-33 threes) in his past four contests, including a 20-point effort (4-of-5 FG) versus Kansas State on Saturday. Thomas had a well-rounded performance versus Kansas on Jan. 25 with 13 points (3-of-6 threes), six rebounds and four steals.


Senior F Abdel Nader (13.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG) has been heating up with 19+ points in four of his past five games (19.2 PPG), and also played well in the win over the Jayhawks with 17 points (6-of-9 FG) and four steals, one shy of his career high.


Kansas also knows how to put up points, generating 81.7 PPG (16th in nation) on 49% FG (8th in D-I) and 43% threes (2nd in nation) this season. The Jayhawks are very efficient with 15.9 APG (39th in D-I) and only 12.5 TOPG, which equals a strong 1.3 Ast/TO ratio (58th in D-I). The defense allows a pedestrian 67.5 PPG (73rd in nation), but limits opponents to 39% FG (19th in D-I) and 33% threes.


Kansas has four main scorers it relies on with F Perry Ellis (16.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), G Wayne Selden Jr. (13.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.5 APG), G Frank Mason III (13.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.4 SPG) and G Devonte' Graham (11.0 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.3 SPG). After a subpar eight points versus Texas Tech last Saturday, Ellis responded with 20 points on 9-of-11 FG with four rebounds and four assists on Monday versus Texas. He also produced 23 points (10-of-18 FG) and five rebounds in the loss at Iowa State in late January. Selden wasn't as much of a factor in that defeat in Ames, scoring only 11 points on 1-of-6 threes. After lighting up Kentucky for 33 points on Jan. 30, Selden had a bitter cold February with only 8.3 PPG on 36% FG, 24% threes (10-of-42) and 46% FT (11-of-24) in nine games.


The junior Mason has scored at least 14 points in each of the past seven contests, where he's averaging 15.3 PPG. Mason also pumped in 16 points, six rebounds and three assists at ISU in the last meeting, but he also committed six turnovers, which are one shy of his career-high seven miscues at West Virginia on Jan. 12. Graham has been outstanding in running the offense with a 2.4 Assist/Turnover ratio this season (5th in Big 12), but had only seven points, four assists and three turnovers in recent loss in Ames.


NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (24-6, 13-4 ACC) at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (22-8, 11-6 ACC)


Cameron Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Even


No. 17 Duke looks for a season sweep of No. 8 North Carolina when the rivals collide on Saturday in Durham.


The Tar Heels have been losing wager this season at 11-18-1 ATS overall (38%), and are coming off a rough February, where they were only 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS. One of those defeats came on Feb. 17 as a 7.5-point home favorite versus the Blue Devils, who prevailed 74-73 by holding Carolina to just 27 points in the second half. But since that game, Duke is just 2-2 SU (1-2-1 ATS) with losses at Louisville and Pittsburgh, and an unimpressive 79-71 home win over 16-point underdog Wake Forest on Tuesday.


Although the Blue Devils are 8-2 SU in the past 10 meetings with four straight wins over the Tar Heels, the teams are an even 4-4 ATS in the past eight matchups. Bettors can point to negative trends on either side, as UNC is 1-5 ATS in its past six road games and 1-5 SU in the past six visits to Cameron Indoor Stadium. But Duke is only 2-5 ATS in its past seven home games, and is only 1-4 ATS in the past five home meetings in this rivalry.


North Carolina's offense is difficult to contain with 83.1 PPG (11th in nation) on 48% FG (24th in D-I), but it shoots a woeful 32% threes (291st in nation). The Heels are terrific at handling the basketball with 18.4 APG (5th D-I) and only 10.9 TOPG (29th in nation) for a 1.69 assist-to-turnover ratio (3rd in D-I). This team is always aggressive on the glass with a +7.7 rebounding margin (19th in nation) and 13.9 offensive RPG (13th in D-I), but this defense isn’t very tough, as it allows 70.5 PPG (142nd in nation) on 41% FG (76th in D-I) and a dreadful 36% threes (271st in nation).


Senior F Brice Johnson leads the team with 16.8 PPG (8th in ACC) and leads the entire conference in shooting (62% FG), rebounds (10.4 APG) and double-doubles (18). Johnson had a monster game versus Duke last month with 29 points (13-of-17 FG) and 19 rebounds, which included 18 points and 11 boards in the first half. With the Blue Devils still lacking a quality big man, Johnson should be able to dominate again on Saturday.


Senior PG Marcus Paige (12.1 PPG, 3.7 APG, 1.2 SPG) hopes his final game in this rivalry goes much better than last month when he scored just seven points on 2-of-10 FG, including 0-for-6 threes. He hasn't been great since that game either with only 9.0 PPG on 12-of-40 FG (30%) in his past four contests. Paige has done a nice job handling the basketball though, with 12 assists and only two turnovers during the past two contests.


The Heels have three other main scorers in G Joel Berry II (12.3 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG), swingman Justin Jackson (12.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.2 APG) and F Kennedy Meeks (9.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG). Berry is the best long-range shooter on the team at 38% threes, and has strung together four straight double-figure scoring games (13.8 PPG). However, this streak followed a horrendous 2-of-12 shooting night versus Duke. Jackson has netted at least 10 points in seven straight games (14.4 PPG), which includes 13 points and eight rebounds in the loss to the Blue Devils. Meeks is making 57% FG this season, and scored 10 points in just 13 minutes in Monday's win over Syracuse. He also chipped in six points and eight rebounds in the Feb. 17 meeting.


Duke is always known for its high-octane offense, and this season is no exception as the group is averaging a robust 81.5 PPG (17th in nation) on 47% FG (58th in D-I) and 39% threes (20th in nation). This is a decent foul-shooting team (73% FT, 67th in D-I) that rarely turns the ball over (10.2 TOPG, 12th-fewest in nation), but has a weak +1.2 RPG margin (152nd in D-I) due largely to the absence of top rebounder Amile Jefferson (11.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG), who hasn't played since Dec. 5 due to a broken foot. This offense needs to be super efficient, because its defense is not strong with allowing 71.0 PPG (154th in nation) on 44% FG (227th in D-I) and 34% threes (163rd in nation).


In addition to Jefferson, four other Duke players average at least 11 points per game, led by G Grayson Allen (21.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.3 SPG) and F Brandon Ingram (16.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 1.1 SPG). The sophomore Allen has scored at least 15 points in 19 straight games, and pumped in 30 points on Tuesday on 7-of-16 FG and 14-of-19 FT. He collected 23 points (7-of-18 FG, 8-of-10 FT), seven rebounds and two steals in last month's win in Chapel Hill. The 6-foot-9 freshman Ingram is also on fire, recording 13+ points in 22 of his past 23 games. This timespan includes a double-double of 20 points and 10 rebounds in the Feb. 17 win over North Carolina.


The other two healthy double-digit scorers on this team are freshman F/G Luke Kennard (11.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG) and junior G Matt Jones (11.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.0 SPG). Kennard can hurt opponents from anywhere on the court, and loves getting to the foul line where he is nearly automatic at 89% FT (80-of-90). He scored 15 points versus the Tar Heels two weeks ago, but was held without a point (0-for-4 FG) in Tuesday's win over Wake Forest. Jones has played well in three games back from injury with 10.7 PPG on 10-of-19 FG and 8-of-14 threes, and hopes to log a lot more than his nine minutes at UNC last month when he had zero points on 0-for-3 shooting before exiting with a badly sprained ankle.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Tip Sheet
March 4, 2016




**Iowa State at Kansas**


-- As of late Friday afternoon, several offshore books had Kansas (26-4 straight up, 19-9 against the spread) installed as an 8.5-point home favorite for Saturday’s Big 12 showdown vs. Iowa St. in Lawrence. A win over the Cyclones would almost certainly guarantee the Jayhawks of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament even if they lost their first game at the Big 12 Tourney.


-- Kansas is unbeaten in 15 home games this year, going 8-5 ATS. The Jayhawks have been single-digit home ‘chalk’ only three times, going 2-1 ATS.


-- Bill Self’s team has been cashing tickets galore in recent weeks, posting a 9-1 spread record in its last 10 games. KU is off perhaps its best performance of the season, smashing Texas by an 86-56 count Monday as a 3.5-point road favorite. Perry Ellis was the catalyst with 20 points, four rebounds and four assists. Ellis made 9-of-11 attempts from the field on a night when the Jayhawks shot 64.0 percent from the field and an astounding 11-of-16 from 3-point range (68.8%!). Frank Mason had 14 points and six assists compared to only one turnover, burying all three of his launches from long distance. Devonte’ Graham added 13 points, seven boards and a pair of steals.


-- KU is led by Ellis, the senior power forward who averages 16.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and shoots at a 52.3 percent clip from the field.


-- KU ranks 16th in the nation in scoring (81.7 PPG), eighth in field-goal percentage (49.3%) and second in 3-point percentage (43.0%).


-- Kansas is No. 1 in the RPI Rankings thanks to an incredible 8-3 record against the Top 25. KU is 13-3 versus the Top 50 and 17-3 against the Top 100. The Jayhawks swept Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas and Texas Tech. In addition, they have home wins over Kentucky and Oregon St. Furthermore, they won by 13 at San Diego St. and knocked off Vanderbilt on a neutral floor.


-- Iowa State (21-9 SU, 13-13-1 ATS) is No. 19 in the RPI, posting a 3-7 record against the Top 25, a 7-8 mark versus the Top 50 and an 11-9 record against the Top 100. The Cyclones have home wins over Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech and Chattanooga. They have beaten Colorado and Virginia Tech on a neutral court, in addition to winning at Cincinnati.


-- Steve Prohm’s first team at ISU has lost six of its 10 road assignments while going 5-5 ATS. The Cyclones have been road underdogs five times, producing a 2-3 spread record with one outright victory (at Cincy).


-- Since losing five of eight games, Iowa St. has responded with back-to-back home wins over Kansas State (80-61) and Oklahoma State (58-50). ISU failed to cover the number in Monday’s win over the Cowboys as a 14-point home favorite. Abel Nader hit 6-of-9 shots from the field and 3-of-5 from downtown en route to scoring a team-best 19 points. Georges Niang finished with 17 points, 10 rebounds and four assists.


-- Niang is one of the nation’s best players with the size to play inside and the range to knock down 3-balls in bunches. Niang is averaging 19.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. He is making 54.2 percent of his attempts from the field, 37.8 percent from 3-point range and 81.3 percent at the free-throw line.


-- Iowa State has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings with Kansas, including an 85-72 win in Ames as a 1.5-point home favorite on Jan. 25. The 157 combined points slipped ‘under’ the 161-point total. Monte Morris stole the show by tallying 21 points and nine assists without committing a turnover. Niang had 19 points and six rebounds, while Nader contributed 17 points, four steals, three boards and three assists. In the losing effort for KU, Ellis had a team-high 23 points.


-- This rivalry has seen the ‘over’ go 10-4 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings. Also, the ‘over’ is 7-1 in the last eight encounters at Kansas.


-- The ‘under’ is 18-9 overall for KU, 8-5 in its home games. The Jayhawks have watched the ‘under’ hit at a 12-3-1 rate in their last 16 outings.


-- The ‘under’ is 14-12-1 overall for ISU, but the ‘over’ has gone 6-4 in its road tilts.


-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.


**North Carolina at Duke**


-- North Carolina will be in revenge mode and also aiming to clinch at least a share of the ACC regular-season title when it invade Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on its arch rival Saturday in Durham. As of late Friday afternoon, one offshore betting shop had the Blue Devils listed as one-point favorites.


-- Duke (22-8 straight up, 13-14-2 against the spread) has 15 of its 17 home game while posting an 8-7 spread record.


-- Duke is led by sophomore shooting guard Grayson Allen, who is averaging team-highs in scoring (21.2 points per game), assists (3.5 APG), field-goal percentage (48.0%) and steals (1.3 SPG). The best talent on the team is future lottery pick Brandon Ingram, who averages 16.9 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. He also has 42 blocked shots, while Marshall Plumlee (8.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG) has a team-best 44 rejections.


-- Amile Jefferson (11.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG) remains ‘out’ with an injury. Mike Krzyzewski said “he still can’t run fluidly” earlier this week and indicated Jefferson may redshirt if he’s not ready to play for the NCAA Tournament.


-- Duke has won seven of its last nine games, including Tuesday’s 79-71 win over Wake Forest as a 16-point home favorite. Allen scored a game-high 30 points, grabbed five rebounds and has five steals. Ingram went for 15 points and 11 boards, while Plumlee finished with 13 points and 17 rebounds before fouling out.


-- Duke is No. 14 in the RPI Rankings, sporting a 5-6 record against the Top 50 and a 10-7 mark versus the Top 100. The Blue Devils have high-quality home wins over Virginia, Louisville and Indiana (by 20!), in addition to a win at UNC and a victory over VCU on a neutral court.


-- North Carolina (24-6 SU, 12-17-1 ATS) is No. 9 in the RPI, going 2-4 against the Top 25, 3-5 versus Top-50 foes and 12-6 against the Top 100. The Tar Heels’ best wins have come at home vs. Maryland, Pitt and Miami. They won at Syracuse and swept three non-conference games on a neutral court against Temple, Kansas State and UCLA.


-- Roy Williams’s team is led by senior forward Brice Johnson, who averages 16.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Johnson is hitting 61.6 percent of his shots from the field and has 36 blocked shots. Sophomore wing Justin Jackson (12.3 PPG) has a 93/32 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Senior point guard Marcus Paige (12.1 PPG) has had a disappointing campaign, but the streaky shooter is capable of getting hot at any time. Paige is draining only 33.6 percent of launches from downtown, though he has a solid 89/28 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Joel Berry II (12.2 PPG) averages team-highs in assists (3.7 APG) and steals (1.5 SPG).


-- When these schools met in Chapel Hill on Feb. 17, Duke won a 74-73 thriller in come-from-behind fashion as an 8.5-point road underdog. Allen dropped 23 points on the Tar Heels, including the go-ahead free throws with 1:09 remaining. Ingram produced 20 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and two blocked shots. In the losing effort, Johnson had 29 points and 19 rebounds. Paige struggled mightily, missing all six of his 3-point attempts. Paige was 2-of-10 from the field, scored only seven points and had the same amount of turnovers (three) as assists (three). Jackson had 13 points and eight boards.


-- Since losing at Duke, UNC has won three of its four games while going 2-2 ATS. The Tar Heels beat Syracuse 75-70 Monday at home, but they failed to cover as 13-point ‘chalk.’ Johnson was the catalyst on his Senior Night with 14 points and 10 boards.


-- UNC is 11th in the nation in scoring (83.1 PPG) despite ranking 297th in 3-point percentage (31.6%).


-- North Carolina owns an 8-2 spread record in its last 10 games at Duke, but it hasn’t won outright at Cameron since 2012.


-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings between these bitter rivals.


-- The ‘over’ is 16-14-1 overall for UNC, but the ‘under’ is 6-4 in its 10 road assignments. The ‘under’ is 7-2 for the Tar Heels in their last nine outings.


-- The ‘under’ is 17-12-2 overall for Duke, 9-7 in its home games. The ‘under’ has cashed in seven in a row for the Blue Devils and nine of their last 10.


-- Tip-off is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- Chris Vernon is a sports radio titan in Memphis. I’m on his show every Friday during football season and occasionally on at other times to talk hoops and UFC. Verno tells me that Josh Pastner is actually safe at Memphis because the school can’t afford to hire a (quality) new coach because it’s a reach to even ante up the $10.5 million buyout to oust Pastner, whose team lost against Thursday night at Temple by a 72-62 count.


-- Michigan has won 14 of its 17 home games this year and the early numbers coming out offshore late Friday afternoon had it as a pick ‘em vs. Iowa in Ann Arbor. The Hawkeyes have lost five of their last six games while going 0-6 ATS.


-- Kentucky is favored by double digits against LSU at Rupp Arena. The Wildcats are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in SEC home games. They have won those contests by margins of 6, 10, 22, 19, 34, 19, 34, 10 and 25. The Tigers are 3-5 ATS with one outright win in eight games as underdogs. With that said, they won outright in their lone double-digit ‘dog spot (+10 at Vandy). Senior guard Keith Hornsby is listed as ‘questionable’ (hernia).


-- Alabama is a short underdog (3.5 offshore) at Georgia. Although the Crimson Tide has lost three of its last four games while going 0-4 ATS, it maintains a stellar record as an underdog. Avery Johnson’s team has been a ‘dog 18 times, compiling a 12-6 spread record with nine outright victories. ESPN.com’s Bracketolgoy guru Joe Lunardi’s currently has Alabama and Florida as a part of “Next Four Out.”


-- UF is favored by six at Missouri, so it can’t help itself on Saturday. Hell, a loss might even put the Gators on the NIT bubble.


-- Vanderbilt has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including Tuesday’s 86-69 win over Tennessee as a 13-point home ‘chalk.’ The Commodores have won six of their last seven with the lone defeat coming at Mississippi State, where they blew a 17-point second-half lead and lost on a buzzer beater. They have seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 in their last eight outings. Kevin Stallings’ team head to College Station to close the regular season against Texas A&M. The Aggies have bounced back from a four-game losing streak both SU and ATS to win five in a row, going 4-1 ATS in the process. They have seen the ‘under’ cash at a frenetic 12-3 clip in their last 15 contests. Offshores had Texas A&M as a four-point home fave.


-- Ohio State is a double-digit underdog at Michigan State. The Buckeyes have taken the cash in both previous spots as double-digit ‘dogs. They own a 7-6 spread record with five outright wins as ‘dogs this season.


-- 5Dimes has posted odds for all the conference tournaments. UNC is the +230 ‘chalk’ to win the ACC at Verizon Center in Washington D.C. The next-shortest odds belong to Virginia (+270), Duke (+350), Miami (+425), Notre Dame (16/1), Pitt (22/1) and Syracuse (34/1).


-- The SEC looks like this: Kentucky (+145) Vandy (+310), Texas A&M (+375), Florida (12/1), South Carolina (17/1), LSU (18/1), Arkansas (30/1), Georgia (55/1), Ole Miss (65/1), Mississippi State (75/1), Alabama (85/1), Tennessee (85/1) and Auburn (500/1).


-- And the Big 12...Kansas (+140), West Virginia (+290), Oklahoma (+350), Iowa St. (+950), Baylor (11/1), Texas (14/1), Texas Tech (50/1), Kansas State (70/1), Oklahoma State (150/1) and TCU (800/1).

 

[CNOTES]

Bubble Update
March 4, 2016


We're now down to single-digit days in the countdown to Selection Sunday as the final games of the regular-season take place this weekend, and conference tourneys take center stage for the next week. The final full "Bracketology" update will be ready early enxt week. In the meantime, we have an updated Big Dance seeding list as of midweek.


1 - Kansas, Villanova, Michigan State, Virginia
2 - North Carolina, Xavier, Oklahoma, Miami-Fla
3 - Maryland, Oregon, West Virginia, Indiana
4 - Utah, Purdue, Wichita State, Kentucky
5 - Texas A&M, Duke, Iowa State, Arizona
6 - Baylor, Cal, Wisconsin, Providence
7 - Texas, South Carolina, Iowa, Dayton
8 - Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Colorado
9 - Pitt, Seton Hall, Saint Joseph's, Cincinnati
10 - UConn, VCU, Saint Mary's, Southern Cal
11 - San Diego State, St. Bonaventure, Butler, Monmouth
12 - Valparaiso, UALR, George Washington*, Temple*, Gonzaga*, Michigan*
13 - Chattanooga, UAB, Akron, Hawaii
14 - Princeton, UNCW, Belmont, Stephen F. Austin
15 - Stony Brook, South Dakota State, Weber State, New Mexico State
16 - FGCU, Winthrop, Hampton*, Texas Southern*, Wagner*, Bucknell*


*-Projected play-in game participants


Last four at-large byes...VCU, Butler, Southern Cal, St. Bonaventure
Last four in...George Washington, Temple, Gonzaga, Michigan
First four out...Tulsa, Syracuse, LSU, Houston
Next four out... Creighton, Washington, Ohio State, Alabama


Following is a last look at upcoming major conference tourney action and the "bubble" ramifications in each league.


AMERICAN


Bubble...Cincinnati, UConn, Temple, Tulsa, Houston
Conference Power Rating-7th
Tourney March 10-13 at Amway Center, Orlando, FL
Last year...NCAA-2 (Cincinnati-second round, SMU); NIT-3 (Temple-semifinals, Tulsa-second round, UConn).


NOTES...The most "bubble-icious" league in the land, perhaps, with no Big Dance locks into the final weekend of the regular, but a loop that nonetheless figures to get at least three bids. Who is likely left out of those mentioned above? Houston rates the longest shot, though its win last Sunday at UConn at least moved the Cougs back into the discussion, and the Thursday win over Cincinnati suddenly makes it appear possible for UH to get a scall on Selection Sunday. A deep foray in Orlando next week would at least have to make the selection committee take a further hard look at Kelvin Sampson's team. As for the Bearcats, they could really use a win over SMU on Sunday, or else face several must-win games next week in orlando. Meanwhile, Temple and Tulsa must take care of business this weekend to keep themselves viable heading into Orlando. UConn missed a chance on Thursday when losing big at SMU and has work to do next week in Orlando, though the Huskies should benefit on Selection Sunday from no truly bad losses. Temple is looking better after the Thursday win over Memphis, but has a lot to lose if it can't win at Tulane on Sunday.


ACC


Solid...North Carolina, Virginia, Miami-Florida, Duke, Notre Dame
Looking Good...Pittsburgh
Bubble...Syracuse
Conference Power Rating-2nd
Tourney March 9-13 at Verizon Center, Washington, D.C.
Last year...NCAA-6 (Duke-Champion, Notre Dame-Elite Eight, Louisville-Elite Eight, NC State-Sweet 16, North Carolina-Sweet 16, Virginia-second round); NIT-2 (Miami-Fla.-Runner-up, Pittsburgh)


NOTES...There will be a lot of jockeying for favorable NCAA Tourney seeds among the power teams at the Verizon Center next week. Should Virginia or North Carolina win the event, either will likely get a spot on the top line, and there remains a chance that both could end up as No. 1 seeds in their assigned regions. There also remains some bubble drama; with a chance to effectively seal an at-large bid, Pitt dropped the ball (literally and figuratively) in Wednesday's painful-to-watch loss at Virginia Tech. Which is not a terrible defeat, as Buzz Williams' Hokies now seem NIT-bound in their bounce-back season. But after their marquee win over Duke on Sunday, the Blacksburg trip offered the Panthers a chance to start making Big Dance preparations. Pitt should still make the field of 68, perhaps comfortably, but Jamie Dixon's team probably has a ceiling of an 8 seed right now. Which leaves us Syracuse, whose case has been reduced to moral victories, such as the close loss on Big Monday at North Carolina. But the Orange are still looking for a late push that lands it on the safe side of the cut line. We suspect they'll need to beat Florida State in the regular-season finale this weekend and avoid an early exit in D.C. next week to stay in the mix. Failure on either count might mean the NIT instead for Jim Boeheim. Clemson, by the way, is now officially off of the bubble after a gallant run peaked at midseason, but fizzled in recent weeks.


ATLANTIC 10


Solid...Dayton
Looking Good...Saint Joseph's
Bubble...George Washington, St. Bonaventure, Virginia Commonwealth
Conference-8th
Tourney March 9-13 at Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Last year...NCAA-3 (Dayton-Second Round, Davidson, Virginia Commonwealth); NIT-3 (Richmond-Quarterfinals, George Washington-Second Round, Rhode Island-Second Round).

NOTES...Whew! Man, did Dayton need that midweek win at Richmond, which was not quite as tight as that 85-84 final score indicated (the Spiders hit a long three-ball at the final buzzer to make the score look a bit better for them and a lot better for any UR backers at the Vegas sports book who bet early and took the 1 1/2 points before the price dropped to 1!). On the heels of three losses in four games, the Flyers weren't exactly in bubble trouble, but there is at least no remaining worst-case scenario that could put Archie Miller's team even in a hint of danger. Though the recent wobble has likely cost the Flyers a protected seed. Elsewhere there is still a lot to play for heading into Brooklyn. St. Joe's is probably safe, but we can't yet say a lock after another loss to St. Bonaventure on Wednesday. For the Bonnies, it was their second win over the Hawks in a bang-up month that saw them also win on the road at Dayton and beat another bubbler, GW. There are bad losses at Duquesne and La Salle in A-10 play, and no significant wins to speak of in November and December, but Bona is 13-4 in a fairly well-regarded league. There is also now a little bit of buzz surrounding Bonnies star G Marcus Posley, whose 47 points Wednesday vs. St. Joe's marks a Division I scoring-high for this season. George Washington has something that Bona doesn't...quality non-conference wins over Virginia and Seton Hall. But the Colonials have their own bad losses (try DePaul and Saint Louis) that are going to keep them on the bubble into tourney week and require a good run in Brooklyn. VCU would be looking a lot safer if not for a recent loss at George Mason, but the Rams could go a long way to locking up an at-large bid if they can beat visiting Dayton on Saturday.






BIG EAST


Solid...Villanova, Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall
Bubble...Butler, Creighton, Marquette
Conference-5th
Tourney March 9-12 at Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY
Last year...NCAA-6 (Xavier-Sweet 16, Villanova-Second Round, Georgetown-Second Round, Butler-Second Round, Providence, St. John's).


NOTES...Since our first conference tourney preview in issue No. 26, both Providence and Seton Hall have moved onto safe ground. The Friars had a pair of semi must-win games in the past week vs. DePaul and Creighton to solidify their Big Dance bid, and got the job done. Along with worthy early-season marks and that huge win at Villanova in January, we don't think the Friars have anything to worry about, even after a wobbly February. The Hall's recent home wins over Xavier and Providence also have locked the Pirates into the field of 68. Not quite there is Butler, though the Bulldogs helped themselves immensely with the Wednesday win over Seton Hall after surviving a calamitous late-game meltdown at Georgetown on Sunday. With good non-league wins over Temple, Cincy, and Purdue, we're thinking Chris Holtmann's team might be able to lock up a bid before it takes the floor at Madison Square Garden if it can beat Marquette on Saturday. As for the Golden Eagles and Creighton, each might have Hail Mary-pass hopes to get back into the bubble discussion, and would probably have to advance to the Big East finale to even get that much mention, though their best ways to get to the Dance will be to win in New York next week. Otherwise, we're afraid both fall a bit short.






BIG TEN


Solid...Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin
Bubble...Michigan, Ohio State
Conference-4th
Tourney March 9-13 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Last year...NCAA-7 (Wisconsin-Runner-up, Michigan State-Final Four, Iowa-Second Round, Maryland-Second Round, Ohio State-Second Round, Indiana, Purdue); NIT-1 (Illinois).


NOTES...The bubble mix in the Big Ten has been reduced by one since our last update, as Wisconsin is now solidly in the field after its breathtaking run over the past five weeks. With no one expecting much of an encore this season in Madison after back-to-back Final Four runs and the departures of key cogs Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, it has hardly been an uneventful campaign, with Bo Ryan's late-December retirement and a 9-9 start with losses to Milwaukee, Marquette, and Western Illinois at home, a point when even an NIT invitation seemed a longshot. Does any team better exemplify this wacky 2015-16 season? And when do the Badgers take the interim off HC Greg Gard's title? Any bubble attention next week in Indy thus turns to Michigan, whose 20-10 SU record does not overwhelm. But in a season like this when those 10 defeats involve only high-level foes, a team stays in the mix. John Beilein's bunch helps its cause immensely if it can win this weekend vs. faltering Iowa, whose recent skid has taken it out of protected seed territory and the likely assignment to the preferable Des Moines sub-regional. Let's get serious, however...the Hawkeyes are not going to land on the wrong side of the cut line. Can't say the same about Ohio State, which did beat Iowa last week and has a December win over Kentucky...but only one other top-100 win. The Buckeyes can get very serious about their at-large chances if they can upset Michigan State this weekend. But that's a big if, as the Spartans are back on the ascent and taking aim at a top regional seed, which they likely secure if they win in Indy next week.






BIG 12


Solid...Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor, Iowa State, West Virginia, Texas
Looking Good...Texas Tech
Conference-1st
Tourney March 9-12 at Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
Last year...NCAA-7 (Oklahoma-Sweet 16, West Virginia-Sweet 16, Kansas-Second Round, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas).


NOTES...There's a chance we get two top-line teams from the Big 12, though at this point we'd say that Oklahoma has to win the event in Kansas City next week for a top regional seed. Otherwise the Sooners likely settle for a 2 slot but, most importantly, get ticketed to the nearby Oklahoma City sub-regional at The Peake. As for white-hot Kansas, it could end up as the number one overall seed and could stay on the top line even if its loses at Sprint Center next week. If Texas Tech wins its regular-season finale this weekend vs. Kansas State, we'd be prepared to call the Red Raiders a lock. Just in case they lose, however, they risk taking a 3-game losing streak into Kansas City, and a quick exit at Sprint Center could put them back in the soup. But Tubby Smith's team bought itself plenty of cushion with its recent 3-week blitz, as well as owning the top-rated schedule in the country. Those sort of credentials are usually good enough to qualify for the Dance.






BIG WEST


Bubble...Hawaii
Conference-13th
Tourney March 10-12 at Honda Center, Anaheim, CA, home of the NHL Ducks
Last year...NCAA-1 (UC Irvine); NIT-1 (UC Davis); CBI-1 (UC Santa Barbara)


NOTES...Prior to last week's stunning home loss to underdog UC Riverside, some regional observers believed Hawaii might have an at-large case. Now, unless some divine intervention arrives from the ghost of Don Ho, that appears very unlikely, and we'll have to see how the Rainbow Warriors deal with the conference tourney in the middle of enemy territory in Orange County (Anaheim Honda Canter), where local teams and top contenders UC Irvine and Long Beach State figure to be well-supported. Although the team many are watching is UCSB, which has made late surges in the past for shrewd, vet HC Bob Williams and had won six straight heading into Thursday's game at the Thunderdome vs. UCR.






COLONIAL


Conference tourney champ will be only Big Dance rep
Conference-10th
Tourney March 4-7 at Royal Farms Baltimore Arena, Baltimore, MD
Last year...NCAA-1 (Northeastern); NIT-1 (William & Mary); CBI-1 (Hofstra); CIT-2 (James Madison, UNC-Wilmington).


TOURNEY PREVIEW...The CAA Tourney has not only been wide-open in recent years, but it has featured many nail-biters and cliffhangers to boot. Any hoop junkies in the mid-Atlantic region who want to see some exciting action and are willing to risk a trip into downtown Baltimore should be well-rewarded. Regional observers believe there are six teams (UNCW, Hofstra, William & Mary, James Madison, Northeastern, and local Towson) with legit shots in this event, which commences on Friday.






CONFERENCE USA


Bubble...UAB
Conference-22nd
Tourney March 8-12 at Birmingham-Jefferson Civic Center, Birmingham, AL (not the home court of UAB, which plays at Gene Bartow Arena)
Last year...NCAA-1 (UAB-Second Round); NIT-3 (Old Dominion-Semifinals, La Tech-Quarterfinals, UTEP); CIT-1 (Middle Tennessee).


NOTES...With UAB's bubble chances appearing extremely remote, C-USA appears to be a one-bid league. Once again, however, the Birmingham venue suggests that Jerod Haase's hometown Blazers are the team to beat. Last year, they won as an underdog; this year they wear the target as the favorite. But there are legitimate cases to be made for no fewer than six other contenders (La Tech, Middle Tennessee, Marshall, Old Dominion, and slightly longer-shots UTEP and Charlotte). Those looking to prepare for the NIT, CBI, CIT, and the new Vegas 16 should keep a close watch on developments, as C-USA reps are likely to be popular in those non-Big Dance events.






HORIZON


Bubble...Valparaiso
Conference-19th
Tourney March 5-8 at Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI
Last year...NCAA-1 (Valparaiso); NIT-1 (Green Bay); CIT-2 (Cleveland State-Second Round, Oakland).


NOTES...So, does Valpo have an at-large case? We think the Crusaders should, and note a couple of pre-league losses when dealing with injuries. The Crusader profile really does not look much worse than Wichita State's, though we suppose there is a case to be made for the Missouri Valley being a stronger league than the Horizon. By how much, we're not sure. So, to be safe, Bryce Drew's team is best advised to win the conference tourney, where local foes Detroit and Oakland, and perhaps Green Bay, loom as the top contenders. The venue for this event is now Joe Louis Arena in Detroit, the home of the NHL Red Wings and rarely a basketball venue since the Pistons were forced to play a few playoff games in 1985 in the building. So even though there might be a local edge for the Titans and the Motown suburb-based Golden Grizzlies, none of these teams in the Horizon has ever played a game at the Joe, and it is not really a long drive for fans of most of the teams in this regional league (Valpo only 3 hours or so away by car).






MID-AMERICAN


Conference tourney champ will be only Big Dance rep
Conference-10th
Tourney first round March 9 at campus sites; quarters, semis, and Final March 11-14 at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
Last year...NCAA-1 (Western Michigan-2nd round); NIT-1 (Toledo); CIT-3 (Ohio-3rd round, Eastern Michigan-2nd round, Akron).


TOURNEY PREVIEW...We stretched things a couple of weeks ago when putting Akron on the bubble. But after the Zips suffered recent losses at Kent State and Miami-Ohio, James Carville couldn't even sell the Akron at-large candidacy to the selection committee. So, as usual, it's win or else for Akron and everyone else next week in Cleveland, as the MAC will continue its 0-for-this-millennium streak of failing to get multiple entries into the Big Dance (1999 was the last time accomplished). No team appears completely out of the mix, as even Miami-Ohio, which had struggled all season, has scored a few wins lately. There is not a league tourney with as many teams having a chance as the MAC.






MISSOURI VALLEY


Solid...Wichita State
Bubble...Northern Iowa
Conference-11th
Tourney ("Arch Madness") March 3-6 at Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO
Last year...NCAA-2 (Wichita State-Sweet 16, Northern Iowa-Second Round); NIT-1 (Illinois State-Second Round); CBI-1 (Loyola-Chicago-Champion); CIT-1 (Evansville-Champion).


NOTES...Don't argue with us about Wichita, which we assure you will be in the field of 68 no matter what happens at Arch Madness in St. Louis this weekend. A 23-7 record overall, a 16-2 mark in the Missouri Valley (both losses by single digits), the No. 1 per-possession defense (adjusted for competition) in all of college basketball, a top-10 rank in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency, and a top-25 perch in the BPI are already good enough for an "up" vote. The Shockers' flaws on paper can be explained in large part by the early-season injury to PG Fred VanVleet, who missed all three games at the Disney World Tourney during Thanksgiving week, which wound up being losses to USC, Alabama, and Iowa. It took VanVleet to get healthy, but the Shockers ended up roughly where we thought they would be. By virtue of wins over North Carolina, Iowa State, and Wichita, Northern Iowa can cling to the periphery of the bubble due to the VCU example of 2011, when the Rams were apparently the last team in when no bracketologist had them close to the final cut. Then VCU went out and made it to the Final Four. In St. Louis this weekend, also do not dismiss Evansville or late-charging Illinois State, which beat Wichita four weeks ago and shocked the Shockers at Scottrade Center last March.






MOUNTAIN WEST


Bubble...San Diego State, Boise State
Conference-9th
Tourney March 9-12 at Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV (home court of UNLV)
Last year...NCAA-3 (San Diego State-Second Round, Wyoming, Boise State-First Four); NIT-1 (Colorado State).


NOTES...Shouldn't Boise at least get some mention when the selection committee meets next week in Indianapolis? The Broncos dipped for a bit at midseason but have seemingly recovered and did KO San Diego State on the road last week. Which, in Big Dance terms, might have been more significant for damaging the Aztecs' at-large hopes. But SDSU's profile has been helped in recent weeks by a surge from Cal, which is the Aztecs' only non-conference victim of note. The new buzz in the Mountain is to keep an eye on recently-surging Fresno State, the only MW team other than Boise to beat SDSU this season. But the best advice for either the Broncos or Aztecs is to simply win the conference tourney at the Thomas & Mack Center and not have to worry about Selection Sunday. We do suggest paying attention to the MW Tourney if interested in scouting for other non-Big Dance postseason events, as many MW reps figure to populate those competitions.






PAC 12


Solid...Oregon, Utah, Arizona, Cal
Looking Good...Colorado, Southern Cal
Bubble...Washington, Oregon State
Conference-3rd
Tourney March 9-12 at MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Last year...NCAA-4 (Arizona-Elite Eight, UCLA-Sweet 16, Utah-Sweet 16, Oregon-Second Round) NIT-2 (Stanford-Champion, Arizona State-Second Round); CBI-1 (Colorado-Second round).


NOTES...Recent developments to note in the Pac are Oregon securing at least a share of its first Pac crown since 2002, plus and the recent surge by Utah which has likely put the Utes in protected seed territory. There has also been a recent and alarming dip by Southern Cal, which lost five of six before temporarily righting the ship in a Wednesday win over Oregon State. That victory got SC to 20 wins and has moved it closer to safety, but a loss in the regular-season finale to Oregon and a quick exit in the Pac-12 Tourney next week in Vegas would give the committee an excuse to kick out the Trojans, who would have lost 7 of their last 9 in that scenario. The other recent storyline has been Oregon State, which took a blow in its Wednesday loss to the Trojans at Galen Center but remains the object of enormous affection by the RPI, which had the Beavs as high as 28 earlier this week. Why the love for OSU? Because Wayne Tinkle's team played just four non-Pac foes who currently exist outside the RPI top 150, and only two (Quinnipiac, Cal State Fullerton) are hovering near the dreaded 300 range. Throw in a road game against Kansas, a road win at top-100 UC Santa Barbara, a neutral-court victory over bubbly Tulsa, and there's your bubble case!






SEC


Solid...Kentucky, Texas A&M
Looking Good...South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Bubble...Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Florida
Conference-6th
Tourney March 11-15 at Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN (home of the NHL Predators)
Last year...NCAA-5 (Kentucky-Final Four, Arkansas-Second Round, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia); NIT-3 (Vanderbilt-Quarterfinals, Alabama-Second Round, Texas A&M-Second Round).


NOTES...The recent "it" team in the SEC is Vandy, which can move into the "solid" category with a win at Texas A&M this weekend. If the Dores lose in College Station, they are probably going to have to do a bit of good work in next week's SEC Tourney, which for the second straight year is being held in Vandy's hometown on Nashville. As for South Carolina, its weak pre-league slate is proving a bit of a problem with the computer numbers, but as long as they don't lose both vs. Georgia and Arkansas before heading to Nashville next week, the Gamecocks should be safe. The bubble cases for LSU and especially Florida (with four straight losses into this weekend's regular-season finale at Mizzou) and Bama (loser of 3 of its last 4) are looking increasingly dicey.




SUN BELT


Bubble...UA-Little Rock
Conference-20th
Tourney March 10-13 at Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA
Last year...NCAA-1 (Georgia State-Second Round); CIT-2 (ULM-Runner-up, UL-Lafayette-Third Round).


NOTES...Well, what about UALR's chances as an at-large, if the Trojans need to go that route? They have kept chugging thru the Sun Belt and will be top seed for next week's tourney at the UNO Lakefront Arena. The computer numbers are good. There are non-conference wins at bubbly San Diego State and Tulsa. We would have said they're in no matter what happens next week in New Orleans until they lost in a stunner on Thursday at Appalachian State. Now, is anyone up to knocking off UALR and its highly-ranked scoring defense? UTA is down top scorer Kevin Hervey and faded from the race after his injury. Which leaves UL-Monroe and UL-Lafayette and maybe Georgia State (which slumped at midseason but appears to be regathering) as the two most likely to give the Trojans a scare.




WEST COAST


Looking Good...Saint Mary's
Bubble...Gonzaga
Conference-12th
Tourney March 3-8 at Orleans Hotel Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Last year...NCAA-2 (Gonzaga-Elite Eight, BYU-First Four); NIT-1 (Saint Mary's); CBI-1 (Pepperdine); CIT-1 (Portland).


NOTES...Is it just us, or do these other bracketologists seem to enjoy kicking Gonzaga's at-large chances the way Stephen Colbert likes to trash Donald Trump? We still think the Zags have a decent shot at an at-large, though of course they will want to win the WCC Tourney in Las Vegas to guarantee avoiding what would be their first Big Dance miss since 1998. Whether Gonzaga has a top-50 win depends largely on which way the RPI wind is blowing and whether that wind has knocked UConn below or above that semi-arbitrary line of demarcation. Though the Zags' narrow escape from Provo, and a desperate BYU team, last Saturday night was a positive sign for Mark Few's team. As for Saint Mary's, it felt compelled to add Tuesday's oddball bit of scheduling against WAC contender Grand Canyon to help the profile. It would have been a torpedo hit to lose to Dan Majerle's Antelopes, but instead it is another win to help (perhaps not much, but at least a bit) the Gaels' computer numbers. The at-large feels very reachable, if needed, in Moraga.

 

[CNOTES]

Bubble Watch: Vandy rising, Gators falling
March 4, 2016


Vanderbilt is finally living up to expectations after a sluggish start to the season, peaking at just the right time to boosts its NCAA Tournament hopes.


Another SEC team is headed the wrong direction.


Once in solid position to make the bracket, Florida finds itself on the outside of the bubble after a disappointing loss to No. 22 Kentucky on Tuesday, the Gators' fourth straight.


''We let a lot of cheap games go by that we could've had, but this is where we're at and we just got to continue to fight and continue to battle,'' sophomore John Egbunu said after the 88-79 home loss to the Wildcats. ''We still have a few games in the SEC tournament coming up.''


The Gators may need to win it at this point.


Florida enters its regular-season finale against Missouri with a losing conference record (8-9) and is 17-13 overall. Even if the Gators beat the Tigers, it won't help their chances all that much, leaving them in likely need of winning or at least reaching the championship of the conference tournament.


The Commodores, on the other hand, picked the right time to get rolling, knocking off Kentucky and Florida during a four-game winning streak that puts them at 19-11 overall and 11-6 in the SEC heading into Saturday's regular-season finale against No. 20 Texas A&M.


Find a way to beat the Aggies on the road and it might be hard to keep the Commodores out of the NCAA bracket.


---


ON THE RISE


Butler.


Once in danger of their bubble bursting, the Bulldogs (20-9, 9-8 Big East) took a huge step in the resume-building process by knocking off Seton Hall. Beating a team that's headed to the NCAA Tournament is a boost, but there's still work to be done, starting with Saturday's game against Marquette. Win that and a couple of games in the Big East tournament, the Bulldogs might feel a little safer next Sunday.


Providence.


The Friars (21-9, 9-8 Big East) and do-everything guard Kris Dunn appeared to be in trouble after a stretch of six losses in eight games. Providence boosted its chances with wins over DePaul and Creighton and could enter the Big East tournament on a three-game winning streak if it beats St. John's. Get to the tournament semifinals and the Friars should be in. Lose to St. John's and bow out of the Big East tournament early and Selection Sunday might not be much fun.


Ohio State.


The Buckeyes (19-11, 10-6 Big Ten) still have a long way to go, but knocking off No. 16 Iowa last weekend at least puts them back in the bracket conversation.


Southern California.


Seemingly careening away from the NCAA Tournament with five losses in six games, the Trojans (20-10, 9-8 Pac-12) gained a little momentum by knocking off fellow bubble team Oregon State on Wednesday. Beating No. 9 Oregon on Saturday would certainly get them back on the right track heading into next week's Pac-12 tournament.


---


FADING HOPES


Syracuse.


The Orange 19-11, 9-8 ACC) missed out on huge opportunity Monday night, when they lost a potential resume-boosting game to No. 8 North Carolina. A win in Chapel Hill would have assured Syracuse of a winning record in one of the nation's toughest conferences and all but locked up an NCAA Tournament bid. Now the Orange probably need a win over Florida State and a couple of wins in the ACC tournament to feel safe.


Cincinnati.


The Bearcats (21-9, 11-6 AAC) have a solid record at first glance, but it's a bit deceiving. Cincinnati is 0-3 against teams in the RPI top 25 and is 2-4 against the top 50. Adding to that is a loss to Houston on Thursday. Knocking off No. 24 SMU on Sunday would certainly boost their chances as would a deep run in the ACC tournament.


Virginia Commonwealth.


Despite a win over Davidson last Friday, the Rams (22-8, 14-3 A10) are not on the most solid ground for an NCAA bid. VCU's record looks good, but among its losses were a disheartening setback to struggling George Mason, its second this season to a team with an RPI over 150. Beating Dayton on Saturday would give the Rams at least a share of the Atlantic-10 title, but they still may need a good run in the conference tournament to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.


Gonzaga.


Another record-can-be-deceiving team. The Bulldogs enter this weekend's West Coast Conference tournament at 23-7 and 15-3, yet don't have many marquee wins and have struggled in potential resume-building games. Gonzaga also has lost to St. Mary's twice and may need to at least reach the WCC tournament title game to extend its NCAA Tournament streak to 18 straight seasons.

 

[CNOTES]

Duke's Ingram looks to foil UNC again
March 4, 2016


DURHAM, N.C. (AP) Duke's Brandon Ingram has a knack for foiling North Carolina.


The instate native chose the Blue Devils over the Tar Heels, then - while being booed relentlessly by UNC's fans - scored 20 points last month while winning his first meeting with them.


Now the freshman is ready for Round 2 on Saturday night and the renewal of college basketball's fiercest rivalry when his 17th-ranked Blue Devils (22-8, 11-6 ACC) play host to No. 8 North Carolina (24-6, 13-4).


''It's definitely a big game,'' the soft-spoken Ingram said, ''and there's definitely motivation, but I'm with my team now. I'm with the Duke basketball team now, and I love every part of it.''


The wiry, 6-foot-9 forward with a reliable stroke from 3-point range and a nose for rebounds has made it look effortless at times during a season that statistically ranks with a pair of predecessors who have gone one-and-done in the past two years, Jabari Parker and Jahlil Okafor.


Ingram sure looks like a shoo-in to become the third straight Duke player picked as the ACC's freshman of the year. He leads all freshmen in the league with averages of 16.9 points and 6.8 rebounds, eight double-doubles and a 3-point percentage of 40.6 percent.


Three of the top five freshman scorers in the history of the program have passed through the program in the past three years. Ingram's average of 16.9 points would rank him fifth on that list; Parker set the record by averaging 19.1 points two years ago before Okafor scored 17.3 points per game to take third place.


And like Parker and Okafor, Ingram has been nearly impossible for other ACC teams to stop. He's scored in double figures in every conference game but one - a loss at Louisville in which he had 10 turnovers.


''There's some guys that they're just hard to guard,'' North Carolina forward Justin Jackson said. ''At the end of the day, they're probably going to score at least 10. But I think against him, you have to somehow try to figure out ways to make it more difficult for him.''


Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski thinks Ingram is capable of even more. He said Ingram ''could have had a 35-40-point night'' earlier this week against Wake Forest - instead of only 15 - had he perhaps not been worn down a bit by the grind of his first college season and ''finished'' some plays around the rim.


''He's going to keep taking steps - even when he's not here. His trajectory,'' Krzyzewski said, gesturing his hand upward. ''He's a real special basketball player.''


Ingram has the second-most rebounds on the team (203) and ranks third on the team with 65 3-pointers, having made at least two of them in eight straight games.


''How smart he is - you just have to tell him once. He gets it. No maintenance,'' Krzyzewski said. ''No extra time of explaining. His basketball intellect is super high, and he has a great feel for the game.''


Ingram has three games this season with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. The most recent of those came last month at North Carolina - where he was hounded all night by boos from fans who thought he belonged in a lighter shade of blue.


''I think it's more motivation,'' Ingram said. ''I really kind of didn't hear it. I was more into the game rather than listening to the crowd, and (his teammates) do a good job of helping me do that. I use it as motivation to keep me going.''


One of the main subplots to the high school season in the state last year was where Ingram would wind up.


He didn't pick a school during the early signing period in November, keeping his recruitment open through a senior season at Kinston High School in which he won a fourth straight state title.


He didn't announce his intentions until his signing ceremony last April 27 - well after Duke lost three one-and-done players from its fifth national championship team, picking the Blue Devils while spurning North Carolina and North Carolina State, among others.


After beating the Tar Heels in the Smith Center, he says he heard from a few hometown folks with hurt feelings.


''But they're all supporting me,'' he added, ''so I try to get the negative factor out of there.''