NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, March 15
Play-in games
Tuesday
North Florida beat Robert Morris 81-77 in play-in LY, also a matchup of Atlantic Sun-NEC teams. Florida Gulf Coast is more of a defensive team now than in '13, when they ran to Sweet 16 under Enfield, who is now at USC. Eagles are 20-13 (4 non-D-I wins); they finished in 3-way tie for 2nd in A-Sun. FGCU is 12-7 vs teams outside top 200. FDU also finished in 3-way tie for 2nd; they're 18-14, with win over #139 Towson their only half-way decent non-NEC win. Knights are 5th-youngest club in America, playing almost solely freshmen/sophs.
In five years of "varsity" (#11-seed) play-in games, underdogs are 7-3 vs spread. Wichita State is 24-8; half the losses came when VanVleet was injured in November; Shockers lost 64-60 to SEC's Alabama- they won five of last six games overall, are forcing turnovers 23.3% of time, #5 in country. Wichita is 7-3 in NCAA tourney games last three years. Since '08; Vanderbilt is 1-4 in NCAA games; Commodores have one senior in their rotation- they've got #3 eFG% defense in country. SEC teams are 4-0 vs MVC teams this season, with three wins by 13+ points.
We'll do what we can with these minor tournaments; impossible to determine how interested players on these teams will be........
NIT
Ohio State lost three of last five games; they lost Friday in Big 14 tournament. Buckeyes are 7th-youngest team in country. Akron lost MAC title game 64-61 Saturday; they've won five of last six games, are 1-1 vs top 75 teams, losing by 17 to Villanova, beating Iona on neutral floor.
Dsvidson lost in A-14 semis Saturday; they lost to North Carolina by 33, Pitt by 25 in two ACC games- they're 4-10 vs top 100 teams. Florida State got KO'd from ACC tourney Wednesday; Seminoles are 9-11 in last 20 games, after a 10-2 start. FSU is 10-0 vs teams that aren't in the top 100.
High Point lost by 3 at both Georgia/NC State; their best player is out here. Panthers won seven of last eight games, losing by 11 to Asheville in Big South semis March 5. South Carolina started season 15-0 but finished 9-8; their #274 pre-conference schedule knocked 'em out of NCAA's- they lost in SEC tourney Friday.
Creighton lost five of last six games, with only win vs St John's; they allowed 80.3 ppg in last three games. Alabama lost five of last seven games after a 5-game win streak, when they won games at Florida/LSU back/back; Crimson Tide last played on Friday. Big East teams are 7-2 vs SEC this year, 3-2 vs spread as faves.
Washington went 9-9 in Pac-12 despite being 6th-youngest team in country; Huskies are 3-7 in last 10 games, losing on Thursday in Vegas. Long Beach State lost Big West final late Saturday nite; 49ers are 0-3 vs Pac-12 teams, losing by 7-21-15 points. Pac-12 teams are 13-1 vs Big West teams this year, 9-5 vs spread.
North Florida won Atlantic Sun by two games, then lost tourney game at home by 33 March 3; Ospreys lost by 11-25 in two SEC games, vs Arkansas, LSU. Florida beat FGCU by 20, Jacksonville by 24; they've lost five of last seven games, losing to Texas A&M by 6 in Nashville on Friday. UNF is #12 team in country in experience.
Valparaiso lost in OT in Horizon tourney; they're 26-6, with #9 eFG% defense in country- they're deep, experienced team that would've been a problem in NCAAs- are they interested here? Texas Southern is 18-14 after starting season 1-11; Tigers are 0-7 vs top 100 opponents, with six losses by 10+. Former Hoosier coach Mike Davis returns to Indiana.
How interested is disappointed San Diego State squad that is out of the NCAAs for first time in seven years after losing MW final on Saturday? Fort Wayne will spread floor and shoot 3's; all four of Mastodons' non-Summit losses were by 14+ points. Mountain West teams are 6-0 vs Summit League this year, 5-1 vs spread.
Young St Mary's squad won eight of its last nine games; they won by 35 over Bakersfield squad that beat New Mexico State in WAC final in Las Vegas Saturday. Gaels haven't played in a week. Aggies are 8-8 outside of WAC; young squad (#332 in experience) turns ball over 20.5% of the time (#310). New Mexico State is 2-4 against top 100 teams.
CBI
Siena lost three of last five games; they haven't played in nine days since home loss to Iona in MAAC tourney. Saints turn ball over 22.1% of the time (#345), bad news vs Morehead State team that forces TOs 21.5% of time (#18). Eagles won seven of last eight games; they've been off for 11 days since losing to Tennessee-Martin in OVC tournament.
CIT
Coastal Carolina split its last six games; they've won five of last six at home, losing by 1 to High Point. Chanticleers are #30 experienced team in country. Mercer had awful season, losing eight of last nine games after one of its players was murdered- they started season 18-6. Mercer lost its last four road games- they're #267 team in experience.
UL-Monroe won 14 of its last 16 games, losing Sun Belt final Sunday in New Orleans; Warhawks were up at half, lost by 20- they beat SoCon champ Chattanooga by 10 in November. Furman lost four of its last five games; this is Paladins' first home game since Feb 13- their last home loss was back in December.
Ball State lost last three games, scoring 57.7 ppg, since 115-79 win over Green Bay Feb 27; Cardinals split pair of OVC games- home team won both games. Tennessee State is 20-10 after going 10-51 the previous two years; Tigers are #23 team in experience- they lost three of their last five games. MAC teams are 4-2 vs OVC squads this year.
Play-in games
Wednesday
Southern won at Miss State/Wyoming, lost by 5 at Memphis; Jaguars finshed 4th in SWAC, losing 4 of last 5 games before winning conference tourney. Since 2003, SWAC teams are 1-6 in play-in games, with win in 2010 by Ark-Pine Bluff. Holy Cross was 3-12 in last 15 games before it won four straight road games to win Patriot tourney; Crusaders run the Princeton offense, but they shoot only 32.7% on arc, not good enough if you run that offense. Southern is 15-6 vs teams outside the top 200.
Michigan finished 8th in Big 14, its best player is out for year; they are 5-7 in last 12 games- they lost to UConn by 14, SMU by 24 in couple games vs AAC. Tulsa is most experienced team in country; they're 4-2 in last six games, but losses were both to mediocre Memphis. Hurricane is 5-7 vs top 60 teams- they lost to Oral Roberts at home. AAC teams are 6-2 vs Big 14 teams this year; favorites were 5-2 vs spread in those games, with one pick 'em. Again, in five years of "varsity" (#11-seed) play-in games, underdogs are 7-3 vs spread.