NCAAF
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Saturday, December 28
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
Saturday’s games
Fenway Bowl (@ Boston)
North Carolina (-2.5) vs UConn
North Carolina (6-6)
New UNC coach Bill Belichick won’t be at this game.
North Carolina lost its last two games, giving up 41-35 points.
Tar Heels are 6-1 when they allow less than 34 points.
Tar Heels have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Tar Heels have 59 returning starts on OL, 49 from one guy.
Junior QB Criswell has 2,003 passing yards (12 TD’s, 3 INTs)
Tar Heels are 1-5-1 ATS last as a favorite this year.
Last three games, UNC allowed 226 rushing yards/game.
Tar Heels are 7-9-2 ATS in last 18 non-conference games.
Carolina has three losses this year where they scored 30+ points.
Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
UNC lost its last four bowls, giving up 44.3 ppg.
UConn (8-4)
UConn won four of its last five games.
Huskies are 5-0 giving up 20 or less points (gave up 50-26-23-31 in losses)
UConn has 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
UConn has 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Fagnano has 1,480 passing yards (18 TDs, 4 INTs)
Huskies are 0-3 vs ACC teams TY, losing by 5-3-7 points.
UConn is 2-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
Under Mora, Huskies are 12-10 ATS as an underdog.
In his college career, Mora is 22-24 ATS as an underdog.
Huskies are 4-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Over is 3-0-1 in UConn’s last four games
UConn lost their last three bowls; their last bowl win was in 2009.
ACC teams won both Fenway Bowls.
Pinstripe Bowl (@ Bronx, NY)
Boston College vs
Nebraska (-3.5)
Boston College (7-5)
BC won three of last four games, scoring 35 ppg.
Eagles are 1-5 when they allow more than 23 points.
BC is 3-2 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Eagles have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Eagles have 115 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB James has 901 PY (6 TDs, 2 INTs)
Boston College is 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
In his college career, O’Brien is 10-5 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2017, Eagles are 35-21 ATS as an underdog.
BC is 3-5 vs I-A teams when it scores less than 30 points.
Over is 6-0 in their last six games.
Eagles lost two of their last three bowl games.
Nebraska (6-6)
Nebraska lost five of its last six games.
Nebraska is 1-6 when it allows more than 10 points.
Last six games, Cornhuskers are minus-7 in turnovers.
Cornhuskers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Nebraska has 152 returning starts on OL, mostly from transfers.
Freshman QB Raiola has thrown for 2,582 yards (12 TDs, 10 INTs)
Nebraska is bowl eligible for first time since 2016.
Last five bowl games, Nebraska is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS (underdog in all five)
In his career, Rhule is 1-2 in bowl games.
Nebraska is 4-2-1 ATS as a favorite this year.
As a college coach, Rhule is 27-23-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under is 7-4 in their I-A games.
Big 18 teams won the last seven Pinstripe Bowls.
Favorites are 4-2 ATS in last six Pinstripe Bowls
New Mexico Bowl (@ Albuquerque)
Louisiana vs
TCU (-12.5)
Louisiana (10-3)
Louisiana split its last four games, after an 8-1 start.
Cajuns are 10-1 when they score 23+ points.
Louisiana is 2-2 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
ULL has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
Cajuns have 91 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Wooldridge had 8 starts before this year.
Louisiana scored 34+ points in six of its last seven wins.
This season, Louisiana is 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
Under Desormeaux, ULL is 4-7 ATS as an underdog.
Cajuns allowed 200+ yards rushing in five of their 13 games.
Last nine games, ULL is +12 in turnovers.
Cajuns won four of their last five bowl games.
TCU (8-4)
Horned Frogs won three in row, five of last six games.
TCU is 7-0 when it gives up fewer than 30 points.
TCU scored 34+ points in four of last five games.
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Hoover started six games last year.
TCU has only two I-A wins by more than 11 points.
TCU won/covered its last three games.
Under Dykes, is 14-11-1 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Dykes is 44-43-2 ATS as a favorite.
Frogs are 8-4 despite being minus-9 in turnovers.
Over is 6-4 in their last ten games.
TCU is 3-1 in last four bowls; the loss was 65-7 in ’22 national title game.
Underdogs are 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS in this bowl the last four years.
Pop Tarts Bowl (@ Orlando, FL)
Iowa State vs
Miami (-3.5)
Iowa State (10-3)
Iowa State split its last six games, after a 7-0 start.
ISU gave up 23-45-45 points in their losses.
Cyclones are 4-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Cyclones have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Cyclones have 90 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Becht started 13 games last season.
In his career, Campbell is 36-19-2 ATS as an underdog.
Under Campbell, ISU is 25-14-2 ATS as an underdog.
Cyclones are 1-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
Last five games, Cyclones are minus-3 in turnovers.
Over is 7-5 in Iowa State’s I-A games.
Iowa State lost four of its last five bowl games.
Miami FL (10-2)
Miami lost two of last three games, after a 9-0 start.
Hurricanes scored 36+ points in their wins.
Miami’s losses: 28-23 @ Georgia Tech, 42-38 @ Syracuse.
Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Hurricanes have 121 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Ward has 25 career starts; he bolted from Washington State.
Hurricanes are 6-5 ATS as a favorite this year.
In his career, Cristobal is 36-45-2 ATS as a favorite.
Under Cristobal, Miami is 10-15 ATS as a favorite
Georgia Tech is only team that held Miami under 36 points this yeah.
Over is 7-3-1 in Miami games this season.
Miami lost its last five bowls; their last bowl win was in 2016.
Favorite are 7-1 ATS in this bowl the last eight years.
Big X teams are 3-5 ATS in this bowl the last eight years.
Arizona Bowl (@ Tucson)
Miami OH (-3) vs
Colorado State
Miami (8-5)
Redhawks won 7 of last 8 games, after a 1-4 start.
Miami is 1-5 when it scores fewer than 23 points.
Miami is 2-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Redhawks have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Miami has 100 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Gabbert has 37 career starts.
Miami is 4-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
Redhawks are 11-5 ATS in last 16 games as a favorite.
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Miami is 4-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
Miami held five of last seven opponents under 300 TY.
Under is 3-1 in Miami’s last four games.
Redhawks lost four of their last five bowls.
Colorado State (8-4)
Rams are 6-1 in last seven games, after a 2-3 start.
CSU gave up 52-28-39-28 points in their losses.
Rams are3-2 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Rams have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
CSU has 94 starts returning on the offensive line.
Rams’ soph QB has 11 starts; he threw 22 TD’s, 16 INT’s last year.
Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.
Rams are 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season.
Under Norvell, Rams are 10-10 ATS as underdogs.
In his career, Norvell is 30-21 ATS as an underdog.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Colorado State lost its last four bowls (last bowl win, 2013)
Since 2015, underdogs are 4-3 ATS in this bowl.
Last eight years, Mountain West teams are 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS in this bowl.
Military Bowl (@ Annapolis, MD)
East Carolina vs
NC State (-6)
East Carolina (7-5)
ECU fired its coach mid-season; interim coach is the new full-time coach
Pirates are 1-5 when they score fewer than 30 points.
Last five games, ECU ran ball for 247.8 yards/game.
ECU has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Pirates have 61 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Houser has 1,859 PY (18 TD’s, 9 INT’s)
ECU won four of last five games, after a 3-4 start.
ECU is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
Pirates are 25-17 ATS in last 42 games as an underdog.
ECU is 2-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
ECU split its last four bowl games (favorites 4-0 ATS)
NC State (6-6)
Wolfpack ran ball for 220+ yards in three of last four games.
State is minus-6 in turnovers in their last six games.
State is 3-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
NC State has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Wolfpack has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Bailey has thrown for 2,182 yards (14 TD’s, 9 INTs)
Wolfpack is 5-12 ATS in last 17 games as a favorite.
State is 1-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
Under Deoren, Wolfpack is 39-42 ATS as a favorite.
Wolfpack is 0-3 when they score less than 24 points.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Wolfpack lost its last four bowl games (last win, 2017)
NC State (-12) beat East Carolina 21-20 in 2022 season opener.
Favorites are 4-1 ATS in last five Military Bowls
ACC teams are 4-2 SU/ATS in last six Military Bowls
Alamo Bowl (@ San Antonio)
BYU vs
Colorado (-3.5)
BYU (10-2)
BYU lost two of last three games, after a 9-0 start.
BYU’s losses: 17-13 vs Kansas, 28-23 at Arizona State
BYU is 4-2 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Cougars have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Broncos have 88 starts returning on the offensive line.
Junior QB Retzlaff started four games LY.
BYU is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
In his career, coach Sitake is 25-14-1 ATS as an underdog.
BYU three of last four opponents under 260 TY.
BYU is 8-0 when it scores 24+ points.
Seven of their last eight games went over the total.
BYU is 3-2 SU/ATS in its last five bowl games.
Colorado (9-3)
Colorado won five of its last six games (9-1 ATS).
Colorado scored 31+ points in eight of its nine wins.
Buffs are 2-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Colorado has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Colorado has 100 returning starts on offensive line, and a new OL coach.
QB Sanders started 11 games LY, after playing multiple years at I-AA Jackson State.
Sanders is 8-4 ATS as a favorite with Colorado.
Colorado is 11-6 ATS last 17 games as a favorite.
Last four games, Colorado is +7 in turnovers.
Over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.
This is Colorado’s first bowl since 2020
Colorado’s last bowl win was in 2004, 33-28 (-4) over UTEP
Favorites are 6-5 ATS in last eleven Alamo Bowls.
Colorado lost this game in 2016, 2020
Independence Bowl (@ Shreveport, LA)
Army (-16.5) vs
Louisiana Tech
Army (11-2)
Army split its last four games, after a 9-0 start.
Army’s losses: 49-14 to Notre Dame, 31-13 to Navy
Army has nine wins by 17+ points.
Army has 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
Black Knights have 85 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Daily started 10 games last year.
In two losses, Army gave up 273-271 rushing yards.
Army is 5-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
Army is 25-29 ATS last 54 games as a favorite.
Army ran ball for 200+ yards in 12 of its 13 games.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Army won 4 of last 5 bowls (last bowl was in 2021)
Louisiana Tech (5-7)
Tech is 4-7 vs I-A teams, with four losses by 7 or less points.
Bulldogs are 1-5 when they give up more than 17 points.
Tech has only one loss by more than 10 points (14-35 @ Arkansas)
Tech has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tech has 79 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Bullock has 1,941 passing yards (14 TD, 2 INTs).
Tech is 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
Under Cumbie, Tech is 10-9 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Cumbie is 12-11 ATS as an underdog.
Arkansas is only team to run for 200+ yards vs Tech this year
Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
Bulldogs won four of their last five bowl games.
Underdogs are 3-1-1 ATS in last five Independence Bowls