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Armadillo Sports

Thursday’s 6-pack:
Highest paid college football coaches:
$13M— Kirby Smart, Georgia
$11,132,775— Dabo Swinney, Clemson
$10,600,000— Steve Sarkisian, Texas
$10,043,418— Lincoln Riley, USC
$10,021,250— Ryan Day, Ohio State
$10M— Mike Norvell, Florida State/Kalen DeBoer, Alabama

Quote of the Day
“I’m telling you, he is not as good as you think- we need to trade him before people find out.”
Washington Redskins coach Mike Shanahan, talking to Washington owner Daniel Snyder about QB Robert Griffin III after the 2012 season, when Griffin won Rookie of the Year.

Thursday’s quiz
In the TV show The West Wing, what actor played the Vice President?

Wednesday’s quiz
12 NFL teams haven’t won a Super Bowl yet.

Tuesday’s quiz
In the football movie Any Given Sunday, where Al Pacino coaches the Miami Sharks, Cameron Diaz plays the owner of the Sharks.

***********************************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

Dodgers 8, Mets 0
Walker Buehler threw 4 scoreless IP.
Hernandez, Muncy, Ohtani all homered.
Dodgers lead best-of-7 series, 2-1.

Western Kentucky 31, Sam Houston 14
QB Veltkamp threw for 281 yards, three TD’s.
WKU outscored Sam Houston 14-0 in second half.
Hilltoppers were 11-18 on 3rd down, Sam Houston 6-15.
Both teams are 5-2.

Texas-El Paso 30, Florida International 21
Miners outscored FIU 10-0 in fourth quarter.
UTEP knocked out two QB’s; FIU’s #3 QB threw 2 INTs.
Miners get first win in seven games; they outgained FIU 372-287.

New Mexico State 33, Louisiana Tech 30 OT
State tied game, scoring a TD with 1:41 left in regulation.
Tech had a 26-yard FG blocked on last play of regulation.
Tech was 11-23 on third down, Aggies 8-15.
This was New Mexico State’s first OT game since 2017.

— Michigan State won the college basketball national title in 2000; that is the last time a Big 18 team won a national championship, kind of hard to believe.

Since then, national titles won by league:
8— ACC, Big East
3— Big X, SEC
1— American

— Joel Embiid just signed a 3-year, $192.9M contract extension with the 76ers, which works out to $784,146 per regular season game.

Embiid came out recently and said he won’t play on back/back nights this year. 76ers have 15 back/backs this year, which means the most games Embiid will play this season is 67.

At $784,146.34 per game, that works out to $11,762,195 Embiid will get paid, for nothing. Of course, Philadelphia pays him for what he’ll do in the playoffs, but still……..

— This summer, I traded for Padres 1B Luis Arraez for my fantasy team; ;he hit .317 in August, .340 in September, but turns out he had a torn ligament in his thumb— he had it operated on this week.

Watching him bat, it looked like he was hurt; he would re-coil after some swings, they took him out of some games early, but he still got lot of hits— thought I was imagining things.

Hopefully he’ll be good to go next spring.

— Red Sox OF Masataka Yoshida is recovering from surgery to fix the labrum in his right shoulder; Yoshida hit .280 this year but only played in 108 games- he hit .289 last year, in 140 games.

— Hurricane Milton shredded the Tropicana Field roof, where the Tampa Bay Rays call home; the stadium isn’t expected to be ready for the start of next season.

Rays are moving into a new stadium in St Petersburg in 2028; the team said “there are more questions than answers” at this point, with the 2025 regular season 162 days away.

Famous birthdays, October 17th:
Michael McKean, 77
George Wendt, 76
Mike Bratz, 69
Jay Humphries, 62

Danny Ferry, 58
John Mabry, 54
Willie Snead, 32
Myles Straw, 30

— Dallas Cowboys have allowed 415+ total yards in their last five home games, the longest-such streak in the NFL since the 2012 Saints.

— Georgia Bulldogs are an underdog at Texas Saturday, which will end a streak that has seem the Dawgs favored in 49 consecutive games.

— Word of the Day: Kerfuffle- a disturbance or commotion typically caused by a dispute or conflict.

— Tom Brady now owns a piece of the Las Vegas Raiders; if he owns 5% of the team, whose valuation is $6.7B, then his piece is worth $335M. Brady is also obviously a TV analyst now; there are rules he has to follow:

Brady isn’t allowed in other teams’ practice facilities.

He isn’t allowed to watch other teams practice.

He isn’t allowed to go to broadcast production meetings, awkward for a TV analyst.

He can’t publicly criticize game officials or other teams.

Interesting to see how this all turns out.

— In best-of-7 baseball playoff series, teams that took na 2-0 series lead have won 76 of 91 series (84%). Under the current 2-3-2 format, teams winning the first two games at home have won the series 44 of 55 times (80%).

— People gamble on everything these days; there are even Bronny James props for the NBA season, when there is no guarantee how much the young man will even play this year:

-110- James scoring 15+ points in any regular season game
+120- James making 3+ 3-pointers in any regular season game
+550- James making 4+ 3-pointers in any regular season game
+800- James scoring 20+ points in any regular season game.
+1200- James making 5+ 3-pointers in any regular season game

— Things have changed a lot in baseball; back on June 14, 1974, Red Sox played the Angels in Anaheim, Luis Tiant vs Nolan Ryan.

Tiant threw 14.1 innings, threw 280 pitches.
Ryan threw 325 pitches in 13 innings.
Angels won 4-3 in 15 innings.

Unusual for a pitcher to throw 100 pitches in a start now.
 

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Armadillo Sports

Friday’s 6-pack:
Top 6 teams in the AP preseason college basketball poll:
1) Kansas
2) Alabama
3) UConn
4) Houston
5) Iowa State
6) Gonzaga

Quote of the Day
“First step in solving any problem, is recognizing there is one.”
Jeff Daniels

Friday’s quiz
Of all the active major league players, who has hit the most postseason home runs?

Thursday’s quiz
In the TV show The West Wing, Tim Matheson played the Vice President; he was also in Animal House.

Wednesday’s quiz
12 NFL teams haven’t won a Super Bowl yet.

*************************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff, and Big West basketball info…….

— Virginia basketball coach Tony Bennett surprisingly retired Thursday, 19 days before the Cavaliers’ season opener against Campbell.

Unusual timing for sure; Virginia players have a 30-day window to enter the transfer portal, but how many teams have scholarships open now? Virginia also added three transfers this year to come in and play for Bennett. They can’t be real happy.

Bennett was at Virginia for 15 years; he won a national title in 2019, won six ACC regular season titles, two ACC tournaments and made the NCAAs 10 times in his 15 years in Charlottesville.

Reading into the stuff that has been written so far, this sounds similar to Jay Wright leaving Villanova; Bennett has apparently had enough of the NIL culture in college sports these days, so he has decided to walk away from a very lucrative job.

This will be the first time since 1982 that the ACC doesn’t have a basketball coach who has won a national championship.

Broncos 33, Saints 10
Sean Payton wins big in his return to the Superdome.
Broncos ran ball 35 times for 225 yards (6.4 yards/carry).
First seven drives, Denver scored two TD’s, kicked four FG’s.
QB Nix threw for 164 yards, ran for 75 more.

New Orleans lost its last five games, by 3-2-13-24-23 points.
Saints were outscored 44-7 in 2nd half of last two games.
Saints are 4-8 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Saints are 9-13-2 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Guardians 7, New York 5 (10)
Pinch-hitter Jhonkensy Noel tied game with a 2-out, 2-run HR in 9th inning.
David Fry hit a walk-off home run in the 10th inning.
New York lost its last six playoff games that went extra innings.
New York leads series 2-1; home team has won all three games.

Dodgers 10, Mets 2
Mookie Betts was 4-6 with three runs scored, 4 RBI
Shohei Ohtani homered, scored four runs.
Max Muncy reached base in 12 consecutive at-bats, before making an out.

Marshall 35, Georgia State 20
Thundering Herd led 25-10 at halftime.
Marshall ran ball 37 times for 295 yards (8 yards/carry)
Only nine of Marshall’s 57 plays came on third down.

Virginia Tech 42, Boston College 21
Hokies led 28-0 at halftime.
BC rallied, cut lead to 28-21 after three quarters.
Tech ran ball 40 times for 368 yards (9.2 yards/carry)

— Army, Navy are both in the college football top 25, for first time since 1960.

Famous birthdays, October 18th:
Bobby Knoop, 86 (my glove in Little League was a Bobby Knoop model)
Mike Ditka, 85
Willie Horton, 82

George Hendrick, 75
Pam Dawber, 74
Jerry Royster, 72

Lindsey Vonn, 40
Yoenis Cespedes, 39
Zac Efron, 37

Big West basketball notes:
— Cal-Bakersfield
Last three years, Roadrunners are 16-38 in Big West games.
Last time they made the NCAAs: 2016, when they were in the WAC.

— Cal Poly
Last five years, Cal Poly went 8-77 in Big West- they fired the coach.
New coach is from Division II Colorado Mesa; he wants to play fast.
Last time Cal Poly made the NCAAs: 2014.

— Cal-Davis
Last two years, Aggies were 25-14 in Big West games, 1-2 in Big West tourney.
Last time Cal-Davis made the NCAAs: 2017.

— Cal State Fullerton
Since 2009, Titans made NCAAs twice (2018, 2022)
Last three years, Fullerton was #229 or worse in eFG%.
Since 2018, Titans are 10-3 in Big West tournament games.

— Hawai’i
Last three years, Hawai’i is 34-21 in Big West conference games.
Hawai’i has been .500+ in conference games the last 12 years.
Since 2017, Rainbows are 2-7 in Big West tournament games.

— Cal-Irvine
Since 2013, Anteaters are 149-48 in Big West games.
Problem is, they’re only 17-10 in conference tournament games.
Cal-Irvine hasn’t won the Big West tournament since 2019.

— Long Beach State
Long Beach won Big West tournament LY, after they fired their coach.
Last three years, Long Beach is 33-22 in conference games.
New coach is a former San Diego State assistant.

— Cal-Northridge
Last three years, Matadors are 16-40 in conference games.
Last NCAAs for Northridge: 2009
Since 2015, Matadors are 1-7 in conference tournament games.

— Cal-Riverside
Four years under coach Magpayo, Riverside is 41-26 in Big West games.
Last 20 years, Highlanders are 0-6 in their second Big West tourney game.
Three of last four years, Riverside went WL in conference tourney.

— Cal San Diego
Tritons were 21-12, 15-5 LY, their 4th year as a Division I team.
Tritons led San Diego State by 14 with with 7:36 left last December, lost 63-62; they’re probably a team to watch in this league.

— Cal Santa Barbara
Gauchos won the Big West tournament in 2021 and 2023.
In 7 years under Pasternack, UCSB is 76-41 in conference games.
Last year was his worst year with Gauchos, 16-15, 9-11 in conference.
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Friday’s games
Florida State
@ Duke (-3)
Florida State (1-5, 1-4)
Florida State is 1-5, with only win 14-9 at home over Cal.
Last four games, FSU was held to 13-12-14-16-13 points.
FSU has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Seminoles have 190 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Glenn is 23-45/228 passing (2 TD’s, one INT)


Seminoles was outgained 410-284 by Cal, in their one win.
Florida State was held under 300 TY in all six games.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 4-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Norvell is 5-10-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Under is 5-1 in Seminole games this season.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 13-17 ATS coming off a loss.


Duke (5-1, 1-1)
Duke lost its last game, 24-14 at Georgia Tech.
Duke won its other ACC game, 21-20 over North Carolina.
Blue Devils have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Duke has 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Murphy started 2 games at Texas last year.


Duke is 9-3 ATS in last 12 as a home favorite.
In his career, Manny Diaz is 7-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2022, Duke is 11-7 ATS in ACC games.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Duke’s coach and QB last year both bolted el$ewhere for big $$$.


Florida State won last 17 series games.
Seminoles are 8-0-1 ATS in last nine meetings.
FSU won its last seven visits to Durham (5-1-1 ATS)
ACC home favorites are 7-8 ATS in conference games.


Oregon (-27.5) @ Purdue
Oregon (6-0, 3-0)
Oregon scored 37-49-34-31-32 points in its I-A wins.
Last three games, Ducks gained 546-431-477-496 TY.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Ducks have 144 returning starts on the offensive line.
Ducks poached senior QB Gabriel (49 starts at UCF/Oklahoma).


Oregon is 2-0 on road (49-4 at Oregon St, 34-13 at UCLA)
Under Lanning, Oregon is 8-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Ducks are 13-8 ATS in last 21 games as a road favorite.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 14-6 ATS in conference games.
Ducks are 15-4 ATS in last 19 conference games.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 17-8 ATS coming off a win.


Purdue (1-5, 0-3)
Purdue lost 50-49 in OT LW, after trailing 27-3 in 3rd quarter.
Purdue is 0-5 vs I-A teams, giving up 46.8 ppg.
Boilermakers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Purdue has 165 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Card has 16 career starts.


Purdue is 0-6 ATS last six games as a home underdog.
Boilers are 8-14 ATS in last 22 conference games.
Purdue gave up 550+ TY in three of five I-A games.
Purdue is 7-10 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Over is 4-1 in Purdue’s I-A games.


These teams haven’t met since 2009.
Big 18 home underdogs are 6-6 ATS in conference games.


Oklahoma State @ BYU (-9.5)
Oklahoma State (3-3, 0-3)
OSU lost its three Big X games, 22-19/42-20/38-14.
Cowboys gave up 232+ rushing yards in 4 of 5 I-A games.
Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Cowboys have 214 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Bowman is in his 7th college season (13 starts LY)


OSU is 3-5 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
Oklahoma State is 18-13 ATS in its last 31 Big X games.
Cowboys are 17-11-1 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
Oklahoma State gave up 456-559-558 yards in its three Big X games.
Cowboys scored 39-45 points in their two I-A wins.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.


BYU (6-0, 3-0)
BYU won its first two Big X games, scoring 38-34-41 points.
BYU won/covered all five of its I-A games.
Cougars have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Broncos have 88 starts returning on the offensive line.
Junior QB Retzlaff started four games LY.


Last 2+ years, BYU is 2-6 ATS as a home favorite.
BYU scored 34+ points in four of five I-A games.
In his career, coach Sitake is 23-32 ATS as a favorite.
Last 2+ years, BYU is 9-8 ATS coming off a win (5-0 TY).
BYU won 38-9/41-19, in its only I-A home games.
Three of their last four games went over the total.


LY, Oklahoma State (-16.5) beat BYU 40-34 at home.
Cowboys outgained BYU, 503-327
Big X home favorites are 8-10 ATS in conference games.


Fresno State (-3) @ Nevada
Fresno State (3-3, 1-1)
Fresno lost its last two games, 59-14/25-17.
Bulldogs have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Fresno has 106 starts returning on offensive line.
Soph QB Keene started 11 games last year.
Skipper is Fresno’s interim coach this season.


Fresno split its two MW games, 38-21 at New Mexico, 14-59 at UNLV
Bulldogs scored 48-38 points in their two I-A wins.
Bulldogs scored 10-14-17 points in their I-A losses.
Fresno is 9-7 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in last 10 Mountain West games.


Nevada (3-4, 0-1)
Nevada lost 3 of last 4 games, giving up 35-37 points in last two,
Five of their six I-A games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
Wolf Pack has 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Nevada has 70 starts returning on offensive line.
Junior QB Lewis started ten games last season.


Nevada allowed 441-562 TY in splitting last two games.
Nevada ran for 353 yards in LW’s 42-37 win over Oregon State.
Wolf Pack is 3-6 ATS last nine games as a home underdog (2-0 TY).
This season, Nevada is 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2017, Wolf Pack is 32-25 ATS in MW games.


Fresno won last three series games, by 2-27-18 points.
Bulldogs are 4-3 SU/6-1 ATS in last seven visits to Reno.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Saturday’s best 13 games
Nebraska
@ Indiana (-6.5)
Nebraska (5-1, 2-1)
Nebraska allowed total of 34 points in its four I-A wins.
Nebraska won its only road game, 28-10 at Purdue.
Cornhuskers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Nebraska has 152 returning starts on OL, mostly from transfers.
Freshman QB Raiola threw fo4 1,345 yards in his five I-A games.


Nebraska’s only loss was 31-24 at home to Illinois.
Nebraska is 16-7-1 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
As college coach, Rhule is 20-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 5+ years, Cornhuskers are 8-13-2 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 4-1 in their I-A games.


Indiana (6-0, 3-0)
Hoosiers are 3-0 in league games, scoring 42-42-41 points.
Last three games, Indiana gained 510-510-529 yards.
Hoosiers have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
Hoosiers have 119 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Rourke started 33 games at Ohio U.


Indiana is 15-7 ATS last 22 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Cignetti is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Cignetti is 14-5 ATS in conference games.
Indiana is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 games coming off a win.
Indiana’s last four games went over the total.


Nebraska won two of three meetings as league rivals.
Under was 2-1 in those games.
Big 14 home favorites are 8-9 ATS in league games.


Auburn @ Missouri (-4.5)
Auburn (2-4, 0-3)
Auburn is 0-3 in SEC, losing by 10-6-18 points.
Auburn has had three straight losing years (6-7/5-7/5-7).
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Thorpe has 37 career starts.


Last 3+ years, Auburn is 6-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Freeze is 18-8 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 6-5 ATS in SEC games.
In his career, Freeze is 28-22 ATS coming off a loss.
Auburn is minus-11 in turnovers this season.


Missouri (5-1, 1-1)
Mizzou scored 35 ppg in its four I-A wins.
Tigers only loss was 41-10 at Texas A&M.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tigers have 107 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Cook has started 26 games.


Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 5-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Drinkwitz is 9-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 19-17 ATS in SEC games.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 14-16-1 ATS coming off a win.
Under Drinkwitz, Tigers are 12-15-1 ATS at home.


Auburn won last three series games (only won was since 2017)
Over was 2-1 in those games.
SEC home favorites are 1-11 ATS in league games.

South Carolina @ Oklahoma (-1.5)
South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)
Gamecocks allowed 19-6-7 points in wins, 36-27-27 in losses.
Carolina lost tough 27-25 game at Alabama last week.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Gamecocks have 118 returning starts on the offensive line.
Freshman QB Sellers threw four passes in three games LY.


Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 7-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 15-13 ATS in SEC games.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Carolina split two road games (31-6 at Kentucky/27-25 at Bama)


Oklahoma (4-2, 1-2)
Oklahoma was held to 222-291-237 yards in its SEC games (1-2).
Sooners were held to 15-3 points in losses (25-15 Tennessee/34-3 Texas)
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
They’re switching to freshman QB Hawkins (14-23/152 passing LW)


Under Venables, Oklahoma is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Venables, Sooners are 8-12-1 ATS in conference games.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 4-5 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Oklahoma is +7 in turnovers this year.
Under is 4-2 in their games this season.


These teams haven’t met in this century.
Big X home teams are 9-13 ATS in conference games.


South Carolina @ Oklahoma (-1.5)
South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)
Gamecocks allowed 19-6-7 points in wins, 36-27-27 in losses.
Carolina lost tough 27-25 game at Alabama last week.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Gamecocks have 118 returning starts on the offensive line.
Freshman QB Sellers threw four passes in three games LY.


Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 7-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 15-13 ATS in SEC games.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 12-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Carolina split two road games (31-6 at Kentucky/27-25 at Bama)


Oklahoma (4-2, 1-2)
Oklahoma was held to 222-291-237 yards in its SEC games (1-2).
Sooners were held to 15-3 points in losses (25-15 Tennessee/34-3 Texas)
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
They’re switching to freshman QB Hawkins (14-23/152 passing LW)


Under Venables, Oklahoma is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Venables, Sooners are 8-12-1 ATS in conference games.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 4-5 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Oklahoma is +7 in turnovers this year.
Under is 4-2 in their games this season.


These teams haven’t met in this century.
Big X home teams are 9-13 ATS in conference games.


Alabama @ Tennessee (-3)
Alabama (5-1, 2-1)
Alabama is 2-1 in SEC games, giving up 34-40-25 points
Crimson Tide scored 35+ points in five of six games.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Milroe has started 14 games.


Last six years, Alabama is 0-2 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, DeBoer is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
Alabama is 10-8-1 ATS in its last 19 SEC games.
Over is 5-1 in their games this season.
Alabama is 11-5 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.


Tennessee (5-1, 2-1)
Tennessee is 2-1 in SEC games (average total, 38.3).
Tennessee is giving up 10.7 ppg this season.
Tennessee has 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Vols have 112 returning starts on the offensive line;
Frosh QB Iamaleava had one start, was MVP of Citrus Bowl.


Under Heupel, Tennessee is 13-6 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Heupel is 22-14 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 12-15 ATS in SEC games.
Vols were held to 25-14-23 points in their SEC games.
Under is 3-0 in their last three games.


Alabama won 16 of last 17 series games.
Crimson Tide is 9-2 ATS in last 11 visits to Knoxville.
SEC home favorites are 1-11 ATS in conference games.


Michigan (-3.5) @ Illinois
Michigan (4-2, 2-1)
Michigan scored 27+ points in its wins, 12-17 in losses.
Wolverines lost their only road game last week, 27-17 at Washington.
Wolverines have 2 starters back on offense, 5 on defense, a new head coach.
New defensive coordinator Martindale has a significant NFL resume.
Michigan has 53 returning starts on offensive line (none at Michigan).


Michigan is already playing their third QB this season.
Last three games, Michigan has a total of 231 passing yards.
Wolverines are 19-11-3 ATS in its last 33 conference games.
Michigan is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Four of their last five games went over the total.


Illinois (5-1, 2-1)
LW, Illinois won 50-49 in OT; they led 27-3 in third quarter.
Illini’s only loss was 21-7 at Penn State.
Illinois has 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Illini has 77 returning starts on OL.
Junior QB Altmyer has 10 career starts.


Under Bielema, Illinois is 4-4 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Bielema is 15-14 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 15-13 ATS in conference games.
Last two weeks, Illinois gave up 239-239 rushing yards.
Illinois is minus-4 in turnovers, in its three Big 14 games.


Michigan won six in row, 12 of last 14 series games.
Wolverines are 6-1 SU/3-4 ATS in last seven visits to Illinois.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.


USC (-7) @ Maryland
USC (3-3, 1-3)
Trojans lost three of their first four Big 18 games.
USC is 0-2 on road (27-24 Michigan/24-17 Minnesota)
USC’s three losses are by 3-7-3 points.
USC has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Trojans have 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Moss won his only start 42-28 LY (bowl game).


USC is 0-6 ATS in last six games as a road favorite.
In his career, Riley is 8-19-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Trojans are 11-23 ATS in last 34 conference games.
In his career, Riley is 33-39-1 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Riley is 5-9 ATS coming off a loss.
USC is 5-10 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.


Maryland (3-3, 0-3)
Terps lost their two conference games, 27-24/42-28/37-10.
Maryland gave up 7-13-20 points in their wins.
Maryland has 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Terps have 21 returning starts on OL.
Junior QB Edwards is 156-228/1,740 passing (11 TDs, 3 INT).

Under Locksley, Maryland is 4-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2020, Maryland is 7-11 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Locksley, Terps are 19-31 ATS in conference games.
Terps were minus-4 in turnovers LW (+11 in first five games).
Over is 4-1 in their I-A games.


These teams haven’t met in this century.
Big 18 home underdogs are 6-6 ATS in league games.


Colorado @ Arizona (-2.5)
Colorado (4-2, 2-1)
Colorado won three of its last four games.
Colorado gained 418+ TY in its wins, 260-359 in losses.
Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 100 returning starts on offensive line, and a new OL coach.
QB Sanders started 11 games LY, after playing multiple years at I-AA Jackson State.


Sanders is 8-3 ATS as an underdog with Colorado, 4-3 on road.
Since 2014, Colorado is 19-26-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Sanders, Buffs are 8-4 ATS in conference games.
Under Sanders, Colorado is 6-2 ATS coming off a loss.
Colorado’s last three games went over the total.


Arizona (3-3, 1-3)
Arizona is 1-3 in Big X games, giving up 31-28-41 points in losses.
Wildcats scored 61-23 points in I-A wins, 7-22-19 in losses.
Arizona has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
Wildcats have 86 starts back on offensive line.
Soph QB Fifita started nine games last year.


Arizona is 4-8 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Brennan is 11-10 ATS as a home favorite.
Wildcats are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
In his career, Brennan is 33-25-1 ATS in conference games.
Arizona is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Under is 3-1 in Arizona’s last four games.


Arizona is 9-3 in its last 12 games vs Colorado.
Buffs are 2-4 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Tucson.
Over is 10-3 in last thirteen series games.


Baylor @ Texas Tech (-6.5)
Baylor (2-4, 0-4)
Baylor is 0-4 in Big X, giving up 38-34-43 points last 3 games.
Bears’ only I-A win was 31-3 at home over Air Force.
Baylor has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Bears have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Robertson started four games last year.


Under Aranda, Baylor is 9-8 ATS as road underdogs.
Under Aranda, Bears are 13-11 ATS coming off a win.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 19-22 ATS in conference games.
Last 2+ years, Baylor is +1 in turnovers (+31 from 2019-21)
Baylor’s last three games went over the total.


Texas Tech (5-1, 3-0)
Texas Tech scored 28+ points in its wins, 16 in its loss (37-16 @ Wazzu)
Tech scored 66-30-44 points in its I-A home games.
Red Raiders have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Red Raiders have 125 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Morton started 12 games LY (12 TDs/2 INTs this year)


Under McGuire, Texas Tech is 8-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 11-9-1 ATS in Big X games.
Last two games, Tech gave up 426-301 passing yards.
Tech is 31-34-1 ATS in its last 66 Big X games.
Four of Tech’s five wins were by 8 or fewer points.


Baylor is 9-4 in last 13 games vs Texas Tech.
Bears are 1-7 SU/4-4 ATS in last eight visits to Lubbock.
Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.


Georgia @ Texas (-5)
Georgia (3-0, 1-0)
Georgia split two true road games: 34-31 at Alabama, 13-12 at Kentucky.
Last three games, Dawgs scored 34-31-41 points.
Dawgs have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Georgia has 87 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Beck started 14 games LY.


Georgia is an underdog for first time in its last 50 games.
Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games.
Georgia is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 SEC games.
Georgia is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
Georgia allowed 300+ PY in two of last three games.


Texas (6-0, 2-0)
Texas is 6-0, with all six wins by 19+ points.
Texas has outscored opponents 259-38 this season.
Longhorns have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Longhorns have 123 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Ewers is 78-108/890 passing (9 TD’s, 3 INTs)


Under Sarkisian, Texas is 14-8 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 16-14 ATS in conference games.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 14-12 ATS coming off a win.
Texas held all six opponents under 300 total yards.
31-12 win at Michigan is closest game they’ve played.


Texas (+12) upset Georgia 28-21 in a bowl game six years ago.
SEC home favorites are 1-11 ATS in league games.


LSU (-1.5) @ Arkansas
LSU (5-1, 2-0)
LSU won its last five games, after a 27-20 loss to USC.
LSU won its only true road game, 36-33 (-6.5) at Ole Miss.
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Tigers have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Nussmeier is completing 64% of passes (18 TD’s, 6 INTs)


Under Kelly, Tigers are 2-5 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Kelly is 31-29-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Kelly, LSU is 9-9-1 ATS in SEC games.
Since 2017, LSU is 37-23-2 ATS in SEC games.
LSU’s last three games stayed under the total.


Arkansas (4-2, 2-1)
Arkansas won three of its last four games.
Razorbacks were minus-5 in turnovers in their losses (+3 in wins).
Razorbacks have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Razorbacks have 67 returning starts on the offensive line;
Junior QB Green started 22 games at Boise State.


Under Pittman, Arkansas is 21-7 ATS as an underdog.
Arkansas is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a home underdog.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 21-13-2 ATS in SEC games.
Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 12-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
Arkansas’ last three games stayed under the total.


LSU is 7-1 SU/3-4-1 ATS in last eight meetings.
Tigers won last four visits (2-2 ATS) to Arkansas.
Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.
Underdogs are 17-4 ATS in SEC conference games.


Kentucky (-1.5) @ Florida
Kentucky (3-3, 1-3)
Kentucky scored 31-41-20 points in wins, 6-12-13 in losses.
Kentucky won its only road game, 20-17 (+15) at Ole Miss.
Wildcats have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Wildcats have 156 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Vandagriff was a backup at Georgia.


Since 2019, Kentucky is 4-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Wildcats held 5 of 6 opponents to 288 or fewer total yards.
Kentucky is 15-13 ATS in last 28 SEC games.
Wildcats are 8-4 ATS last 12 games coming off a loss.
Under is 5-1 in Kentucky games this season.


Florida (3-3, 1-2)
Florida scored 45-24 points in I-A wins, 17-20-17 in losses.
Last three years, Gators were 6-7/6-7/5-7.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Gators have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Mertz is OFY; frosh QB Lagway has 5 TD passes, 4 INT’s.


Under Napier, Florida is 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Napier is 5-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Last 3+ years, Florida is 17-25-1 ATS overall.
Under Napier, Florida is 10-9 ATS in SEC games.
Over is 3-2 in Florida’s I-A games.


Kentucky won last three meetings, by 19-10-7 points.
Wildcats are 6-0-1 ATS in last seven series games.
Kentucky won two of last three visits to the Swamp.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.


UNLV (-7.5) @ Oregon State
UNLV (5-1)
Rebels are 3-0 SU on road, winning by 20-3-16 points.
UNLV scored 59-41-50 points in its last three games.
UNLV has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 79 starts returning on offensive line.
Senior QB Williams started 40 games at I-AA Campbell.


Under Odom, UNLV is 13-6 against the spread.
In his career, Odom is 6-8 ATS as a road favorite.
Last four games, UNLV is +10 in turnovers.
Under Odom, UNLV is 6-2 ATS in non-conference games.
Last three games, Rebels allowed 316/355/461 passing yards.


Oregon State (4-2)
Oregon gave up 49-42 points in its losses, 17.3 ppg in I-A wins.
Last three games, Beavers scored 38-39-37 points.
Oregon State has 4 starters back on offense, 1 on defense.
Beavers have 93 returning starts on OL, from various places.
Junior QB McCoy started 23 games at I-AA Idaho.


Oregon State is 1-4 ATS last five games as a home underdog.
Beavers are 8-5 ATS in last 13 non-league games.
Beavers are 3-5 ATS in last eight games coming off a loss.
Last 3 games, Oregon State ran ball for 341-251-214 yards.
Beavers’ last four games went over the total.


These teams haven’t met since 2009.
Mountain West favorites are 5-4 ATS, in non-conference games.


TCU @ Utah (-4.5)
TCU (3-3, 1-2)
TCU gave up 35-66-30 points in their three losses.
TCU gave up 289-238-207 rushing yards in those games.
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Hoover started six games last year.


TCU is 4-11 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
In his career, Dykes is 22-22 ATS as road underdog.
Under Dykes, TCU is 5-4 ATS coming off a loss.
Horned Frogs threw for 356+ yards in three of last four games.
Over is 4-1 in their I-A games this season.


Utah (4-2, 2-2)
Utah lost its last two games, 23-10/27-19 after a 4-0 start.
Utes scored 22+ points in their four wins
Utes have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Utah has 60 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Wilson is 68-122/830 passing; QB Rising is OFY.


Utah is 9-5 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite (0-2 TY).
Utah is 16-13 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
Utes are 0-2 when they run ball for less than 170 yards.
Since 2016, Utes are 45-29 ATS in conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Utah’s I-A games.


These teams haven’t met since 2010.
Big X home favorites are 8-10 ATS in conference games.
 

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Armadillo Sports

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Mets 12, Dodgers 6- Mets led 8-1 in third inning.
New York 8, Guardians 6- Stanton hit a 3-run homer.
Duke 23, Florida State 16- Duke’s 1st win in 23 games vs FSU.
Oregon 35, Purdue 0- Ducks’ first road shutout since 1992.
Fresno State 24, Nevada 21- Bulldogs outscored Nevada 7-0 in 2nd half.
BYU 38, Oklahoma State 35- 7-0 BYU scored winning TD with 0:11 left.

Quote of the Day
“I don’t think I’m equipped in this new way to coach, and it’s a disservice if you keep doing that. I’m very sure that this is the right step. I wish I could’ve gone longer. I really do. But it was time.”
Former Virginia basketball coach Tony Bennett

Saturday’s quiz
Who was the first Vice President of the United States?

Friday’s quiz
Of all the active major league players, Jose Altuve (27) has hit the most postseason home runs.

Thursday’s quiz
In the TV show The West Wing, Tim Matheson played the Vice President; he was also in Animal House.

***********************************************

Saturday’s Den: How NFL teams do on first drive of a half

How teams do on first drives of a half:

NFC

Cardinals
Scored TD on first drive in five of six games.
Outscored 21-7 on first drive of third quarter.

Falcons
In four of last five games, they kicked FG on first drive of second half.
Overall, have outscored opponents 29-26 on first drive of a half.

Panthers
Opponents on first drive of last 4 games: 17 plays, 42 yards, 4 punts.
Overall, opponents have outscored them 34-16 on first drive of a half.

Bears
First drive of game: 36 plays, 109 yards, 4 punts, 3 points.
In 3 of last 4 games, have takeaway on first drive of 2nd half.

Cowboys
First drive of half: 12 drives, 6-7 on field goals, no TD’s.
Opponents on first drive of half: 7 TD’s, 4 field goals, one punt.

Lions
First drive of last 3 halves: 70-70-70 yards, all TD’s.
Overall, have outscored opponents 31-23 on first drive of a half.

Packers
First drive of 2nd half: 32 plays, 275 yards, 4 TDs and a FG.
Overall, outscored opponents 41-24 on first drive of a half.

Rams
Last four games, Rams allowed TD on first drive of second half.
Rams on first drive of a half: 53 plays, 228 yards, no TD’s, 2 FG’s.

Vikings
Vikings have outscored opponents 17-0 on first drive of their five games.
Opponents on first drive of a half: 45 plays, 110 yards, 7 punts, one FG.

Giants
Last two games, Giants have takeaway on first drive of 2nd half.
Opponents have outscored them 30-9 on first drive of a half.

Saints
First drive of 2nd half, last 5 games: 26 plays, 54 yards, five punts.
Overall, Saints have outscored opponents 38-26 on first drive of half.

Eagles
First drive of game: 16 plays, 12 yards, 4 punts and a turnover.
First drive of 2nd half: 38 plays, 240 yards, 17 points.

49ers
49ers have outscored opponents 41-14 on first drive of a half.
49ers on first drive of 2nd half: 44 plays, 322 yards, 28 points.

Seahawks
First drive of game: 30 plays, 124 yards, 2 turnovers, 3 points.
First drive of 2nd half: 44 plays, 323 yards, 21 points.

Buccaneers
First drive of last 3 games: 27 plays, 216 yards, 21 points.
Bucs have outscored opponents 38-27 on first drive of a half.

Commanders
Commanders’ first drive of half: 83 plays, 439 yards, 40 points.
Opponents’ first drive of half: 78 plays, 509 yards, 44 points.

Famous birthdays, October 19th:
Lynn Dickey, 75
Lionel Hollins, 71
David Palmer, 67

Brad Daugherty, 59
Keith Foulke, 52
Leonard Little, 50

Rajai Davis, 44
Anthony Santander, 30
Zack Gelof, 25

AFC
— Baltimore
Outscored opponents 31-10 on first drive of a game.
12 halves: Ravens have 7 TD’s, 2 FGs on first drive.

— Buffalo
Outscored opponents 45-30 on first drive of a half.
12 halves: Bills have 6 TD’s, one FG on first drive. Also missed a FG.

— Cincinnati
In 4 of last 5 games, Bengals scored TD on first drive of 2nd half.
Overall, outscored opponents 45-38 on first drive of a half.

— Cleveland
Opponents on first drive of game: 20 plays, 3 yards, 6 punts.
Overall, outscored opponents 27-3 on first drive of a half.

— Denver
First drive of 3rd quarter: 24 plays, 46 yards, six punts.
Overall, opponents have outscored them 17-10 on first drive of a half.

— Houston
Last 3 weeks, Texas outscored opponents 14-0 on first drive of game.
Overall, outscored opponents 33-24 on first drive of a half.

— Indianapolis
First drive of last three games: 70-71-70 yards, all TD’s.
Opponents outscored them 16-3 on first drive of second half.

— Jacksonville
Jaguars have been outscored 28-3 on first drive of games.
Jaguars on first drive of half: 66 plays, 256 yards, 10 points.

— Kansas City
First drive of half: 4 TD’s, 3 FG’s, 3 turnovers, no punts.
Opponents on first drive of game: 44 plays, 311 yards, 24 points.

— Las Vegas
Last two games, Raiders drove 70 yards for TD on their first drive.
Overall, opponents have outscored them 36-17 on first drive of a half.

— LA Chargers
Chargers have outscored opponents 17-3 on first drive of their games.
Opponents’ first drive of half: 54 plays, 225 yards, 4 FG’s, no TD’s, 5 punts.

— Miami
Dolphins first drive of half: 55 plays, 219 yards, 3 turnovers, 2 FG’s, no TD’s.
Opponents on first drive of 2nd half: 24 plays, 66 yards, 4 punts, one FG.

— New England
Patriots’ first drive of game: 26 plays, 37 yards, six punts.
Last 3 games, opponents’ first drive of half: 48 plays, 329 yards, 30 points.

— NJ Jets
First drive of game: 30 plays, 100 yards, 4 punts, 3 points.
Jets have outscored opponents 20-17 on first drive of their games.

— Pittsburgh
Opponents’ first drive, last 3 games: 24 plays, 161 yards, 17 points.
Opponents’ first drive of 2nd half: 23 plays, 76 yards, no points.

— Tennessee
Titans’ first drive of a game: 26 plays, 113 yards, 7 points.
Opponents’ first drive, last 7 halves: 48 plays, 337 yards, 31 points.
 

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Sunday’s 6-pack:
Last six NBA champions:
2024— Boston Celtics
2023— Denver Nuggets
2022— Golden State Warriors
2021— Milwaukee Bucks
2020— Los Angeles Lakers
2019— Toronto Raptors

Quote of the Day
“Our kicking game is atrocious. If you can kick and you’re at Arizona State, e-mail me. We’re going to have kicking tryouts on Monday … I’m dead serious.”
Arizona State football coach Kenny Dillingham

Sunday’s quiz
Barry Bonds was walked intentionally 120 times in 2004, the most of any player ever; other than Bonds, Willie McCovey (1969) has received the most intentional walks in a season. How many did he have that year?

Saturday’s quiz
John Adams was the first Vice President of the United States.

Friday’s quiz
Of all the active major league players, Jose Altuve (27) has hit the most postseason home runs.

*********************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday…….

— Georgia 30, Texas 15
Dawgs led #1-ranked Texas 23-0 at halftime.
Longhorns benched QB Ewers in first half, put him back in later
Texas ran ball 27 times for only 29 times.
Georgia turned ball over three times, Longhorns four times.

— Tennessee 24, Alabama 17
Vols ran ball 43 times for 214 yards (5.0 yards/carry).
Alabama has lost two of its last three games.
Last three games, Tennessee has been outscored 13-0 in first half.
Alabama had 15 penalties for 115 yards, Tennessee 11 for 95.

— Iowa State 38, Central Florida 35
UCF led 28-14 with 9:00 left in third quarter.
Cyclones scored game-winning TD with 0:30 left.
Iowa State is 7-0 for the first time since 1938.
UCF lost despite running ball 39 times for 354 yards.

— Miami 52, Louisville 45
Miami QB Ward threw for 319 yards, four TD’s.
Hurricanes are 7-0 for first time since 2017.
Louisville ran a kickoff back 100 yards for a TD.
Miami scored a defensive TD to make score 24-14 in 2nd quarter.

— Indiana 56, Nebraska 7
7-0 Hoosiers have yet to trail in a game this season.
Indiana QB Rourke hurt his thumb, didn’t play in 2nd half.
Hoosiers are off to their best start since 1967.
Only 9 of Indiana’s 63 plays came on third down.

Famous birthdays, October 20th:
Juan Marichal, 87
Noland Smith, 81
Isaac Curtis, 74
Dave Collins, 72
Keith Hernandez, 71
Dave Krieg, 66
Herman Moore, 55
Calvin Broadus, 53 (better known as Snoop Dogg)

— Military schools kept on rolling:
Navy 51, Charlotte 17- Middies had pick-6’s of 61, 84 yards.
Army 45, East Carolina 28- QB Daily ran ball 31 times for 171 yards, 5 TDs
Army is 7-0, Navy is 6-0; they play each other December 14th.

— Duke 23, Florida State 16
Duke had been 0-22 against the Seminoles.
This was first time Duke was favored over Florida State.
Duke was +4 in turnovers; they were outgained 291-180.

— Missouri 21, Auburn 17
Auburn led 17-6 after the third quarter.
Mizzou QB Cook went to hospital for an MRI on his ankle, came back to lead two 4th quarter TD drives.
6-1 Mizzou scored game-winning TD with 0:46 left.

— Illinois 21, Michigan 7
Illini ended a 6-game losing skid against Michigan.
Wolverines outgained Illinois 322-267, but were minus-3 in turnovers.
4-3 Michigan is off to its worst start in ten years.

— UNLV 33, Oregon State 25
Beavers led this game 17-16 at halftime.
Oregon State was on UNLV’s 6-yard line when game ended.
UNLV is 6-1 and bowl eligible for second year in a row.
Rebels ran ball 40 times for 188 yards.

Upsets of the Week:
New Mexico State (+12.5) 33, Louisiana Tech 30 OT
NC State (+10) 24, California 23
Old Dominion (+10) 24, Texas State 10
Georgia Southern (+9.5) 28, James Madison 14
Texas-El Paso (+7) 30, Florida International 21
Maryland (+7) 29, USC 28
Baylor (+6.5) 59, Texas Tech 35
Michigan State (+6.5) 32, Iowa 20

— Eastern Michigan 38, Central Michigan 34
Chippewas led 34-16 with 12:00 left in game.
EMU scored game-winning TD with 1:42 left.
Central lost despite running ball 45 times for 285 yards.

— SMU 40, Stanford 10
SMU threw TD passes of 87-45-38 yards in first quarter.
Bowl-eligible Mustangs have won eight straight road games.
Stanford has lost 11 home games in a row to I-A teams.

— South Carolina 35, Oklahoma 9
Gamecocks scored two defensive TD’s in the first quarter.
South Carolina had nine sacks, four takeaways (+4 TO’s)
Oklahoma is 4-3, 1-3 in its first season in the SEC.

— Maryland 29, USC 28
USC led this game 21-7 at halftime, 28-14 with 11:00 left.
Maryland scored game-winning TD with 0:53 left.
Terps were only 2-13 on third down; they were 3-6 on 4th down.
Trojans have lost four of last five games; they’re 5-9 in last 14 games.

— Cincinnati 24, Arizona State 14
Down by 10 points, ASU missed field goals of 48-41 yards in 4th quarter.
Sun Devils have having open tryouts for kicker on campus Monday.
Both teams are now 5-2.
 

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NCAAFB BEST BETS OCTOBER !

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AUG- SEPT TOTALS............119 - 95 - 3..........................55.60%............................+ 75.20
 

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Monday’s 6-pack:
Interesting spreads, Week 8
— Eagles @ Cincinnati (-2.5)
— Packers (-4.5) @ Jacksonville
— Titans @ Detroit (-11.5)
— Falcons @ Tampa Bay (-3)
— Cardinals @ Miami (-3.5)
— Ravens (-9.5) @ Cleveland

Quote of the Day
“We’ve been good enough to have the lead to win them all — we just haven’t been good enough to separate. So we’ve put ourselves in that position. … There’s not a magic remedy, right? You go back to work, you keep identifying the things we’re not doing well, keep trying to emphasize and maximize the things that we are, and trying to be 1-0 next week.”
USC coach Lincoln Riley. Trojans are 6-9 in their last 15 games.

Monday’s quiz
Green Bay Packers are a publicly-owned team; of the other 31 NFL owners, who is least wealthy of the group?

Sunday’s quiz
Barry Bonds was walked intentionally 120 times in 2004, the most of any player ever; other than Bonds, Willie McCovey (1969) has received the most intentional walks in a season. He had 45 intentional walks that year.

Saturday’s quiz
John Adams was the first Vice President of the United States.

******************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday…….

Chiefs 28, 49ers 18
Kansas City is 6-0, last unbeaten team in the NFL.
Chiefs ran ball for 184 yards on 39 carries (4.7/carry)
Chiefs are 11-5 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Since 2017, Kansas City is 13-4 ATS as an underdog.
Chiefs were 8-14 on third down, San Francisco 2-11.
49ers scored 32-30-36 points in wins, 17-24-23-18 in losses.
49ers are 0-3 when they gain less than 400 total yards (310 this game)
Chiefs have won five in a row vs 49ers, including two Super Bowls.

Lions 31, Vikings 29
Lions’ first three drives: 10 plays, 30 yards, no points.
Lions’ next four drives: 28 plays, 299 yards, 28 points.
WR St Brown caught 8 passes for 112 yards and a TD.
Detroit scored 42-47-31 points last three games (15 TDs on 30 drives).
Lions drove 44 yards, kicked game-winning 44-yard FG with 0:19 left.
Vikings had taken 29-28 lead on a defensive TD with 5:50 left.
Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in last seven NFC North home games
Over is 8-1-1 in last their last ten games with Detroit.

Packers 24, Texans 22
Green Bay drove 39 yards, kicked 45-yard FG at the gun for the win.
Packers are 5-0 when they allow less than 30 points.
Green Bay outscored last five opponents 66-22 in second half.
Packers survived being minus-3 in turnovers (+9 first six games).
Texans led 19-14 at halftime.
Houston in 2nd half: 30 plays, 76 yards, 3 points.
Stroud was only 10-21/86 passing (2.2 yards/attempt)
Texans are 10-4-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog

Eagles 28, Giants 3
RB Barkley ran ball 17 times for 176 yards against his old team.
Philly led 14-3 at half, outgained the Giants, 339-119.
Overall, Eagles ran ball 45 times for 269 yards.
Eagles are 14-3 in last 17 games against the Giants.
Giants’ first six drives: 23 plays, 32 yards, six punts.
Giants’ QB’s threw for 105 yards, were sacked 8 times for 62 yards.
In four home games TY, Giants have one TD on 41 drives.
Under is 6-1 in Big Blue games this season.

Jaguars 32, Patriots 16
New England lost its last six games, outscored 90-43 in first half.
Last three weeks, Patriots gave up 193-192-171 rushing yards.
Patriots are 30-45 since Tom Brady left town.
NE is 7-20-1 ATS in last 28 games as an underdog.
Patriots led 10-0 early in 2nd quarter; Jaguars led 22-10 at half.
Washington ran a punt back 96 yards for a Jaguar TD.
Jaguars outgained New England 364-295.
Jacksonville is 4-2 in their last six games in England.

Bills 34, Titans 10
Buffalo in first half: 20 plays, 90 yards, 5 punts, 7 points.
Tennessee led 10-7 at halftime.
Buffalo in second half: 36 plays, 299 yards, 27 points.
Bills averaged 9.3 yards/pass attempt (Cooper 4 catches, 66 yards)
1-5 Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; their win was 31-12.
Tennessee is minus-9 in turnovers, has had two punts blocked.
Tennessee is 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog.
Titans has trailed in only one of their six games at halftime.

Famous birthdays, October 21st
Manfred Mann, 84
Zack Grienke, 41
Shelden Williams, 41
Ricky Rubio, 34
Greg Robinson, 32
Davis Mills, 26

New York 5, Cleveland 2 (10)
Juan Soto hit a 3-run homer in 10th inning.
Stanton hit 2-run HR to tie game 2-2 in 6th inning.
New York advances to World Series for first time since 2009

Dodgers 10, Mets 5
Tommy Edman batted cleanup, drove in four runs.
Dodgers led this game 6-1 in third inning.
World Series starts Friday; the #2 and #3 payroll teams in baseball.
Someone needs to tell the FOX TV guys that the Mets were #1 payroll team in the major leagues this season, not exactly a Cinderella story.

Seahawks 34, Falcons 14
Seahawks threw 31-yard TD pass with 0:04 left in first half to go up, 17-7
Up 24-14, Seattle salted game way with a defensive TD with 12:46 left.
Seahawks are 17-10-1 ATS last 28 games as a road underdog.
Seattle’s team total: over 7-0
Atlanta is 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
Atlanta was 8-15 on third down, but turned ball over three times.
Falcons were held to 10-17-14 points in their three losses.
Falcons are 5-14 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Bengals 21, Browns 14
Bengals ran opening kick of game back 100 yards for a TD.
Bengals rest of first half: 24 plays, 86 yards, no points.
Cincinnati led 7-6 at half; Browns missed PAT after a TD.
Bengals first three drives of second half: 12 plays, 113 yards, 14 points.
Browns had 2 of their 3 QB’s knocked out of this game.
Looked like QB Watson tore his achilles; he is out for the year,
Cleveland scored 17-18-15-16-13-16-14 points in its 1-6 start.
Browns were 8-19 on third down, Cincinnati 2-13.

Colts 16, Dolphins 10
Miami scored a TD on its second drive (11 plays, 58 yards)
Dolphins rest of game: 56 plays, 280 yards, 3 points.
Down 13-10, Miami clanked 54-yard FG off upright with 5:14 left.
Last four games, Dolphins have four touchdowns on 55 drives.
Dolphins’ team total: under 6-0
Colts QB Richardson completed only 10-24 passes for 129 yards.
Indy won four of its last five games (4-0-1 ATS)
All seven Colts games (4-3) were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Under Steichen, Colts are 4-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Commanders 40, Panthers 7
Carolina’s six losses are by 37-23-10-26-18-33 points.
Carolina is 2-10-1 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.
Panthers gave up 20+ points in first half in six of seven games.
Carolina is 4-14-2 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Rookie QB Daniels (ribs) left early in game, after a 46-yard run.
Veteran backup Mariota was 18-23/205 passing, with 2 TD’s.
Washington’s first score was a 67-yard pick-6 by Fowler.
Commanders won/covered five of their last six games.
Last six games, Commanders scored 19 TD’s, kicked 20 FG’s on 51 drives.

Rams
20, Raiders 15
LA allowed 17 TD’s in first five games; Raiders had no TD’s, 5 FG’s.
Rams had 4 takeaways (+3); their TD drives were 47-26 yards.
Rams are +4 in turnovers in their wins, minus-3 in losses.
RB Williams ran ball 21 times for 76 yards, two TD’s.
First time this season Rams led after the three quarters.

QB O’Connell hurt his thumb; Minshew was 15-34/154 passing (3 INTs)
Raiders have 16 turnovers in seven games (minus-13).
Since 2019, Raiders are 20-13 ATS as a road underdog.
Opponents have converted only 24 of 83 third down plays.
Rookie TE Bowers caught 10 passes for 93 yards.

Steelers 30, Jets 15
Jets led 15-6 with 5:00 left in first half.
Jets lost last four games, by 1-6-3-15 points.
Jets scored 24-24 points in wins, 19-9-17-20-15 in losses.
Jets are 5-12-1 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Steelers in 2nd half: 4 drives- 36 plays, 227 yards, 24 points.
QB Wilson was 16-29/264 passing, 2 TDs in his first Pittsburgh start.
Steelers are 13-5-2 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.
Steelers allowed 10-6-10-13-15 points in wins, 27-20 in losses.
Steelers are 16-8-1 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or less points.
 

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WEEK 9

Tuesday, October 22

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Wednesday, October 23

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Thursday, October 24

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Friday, October 25

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Saturday, October 26

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Week 9


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Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Tuesday’s games
Sam Houston State
(-6.5) @ Florida International
Sam Houston State (5-2, 2-1)
Bearkats won four of its last five games, scoring 31-31-40-41 points.
Bearkats ran ball for 282 yards/game in those wins.
Sam Houston has 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
Bearkats have 70 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Watson played JC ball in Iowa last year.


Sam Houston is 3-1 ATS as a favorite this year.
Bearkats are 6-5 ATS in last 11 conference games.
Sam Houston was held to 14-14 points in its losses.
Sam Houston is 4-6 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
Bearkats are 6-3 ATS in their last nine road games.


Florida International (2-5, 1-2)
Panthers lost four of their last five games.
FIU gave up 16-10 points in wins, 31-38-45-31-30 in losses.
FIU has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
FIU has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Jankins started 11 games last year.


Under MacIntyre, FIU is 6-5 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, MacIntyre is 19-16 ATS as home underdog.
Under MacIntyre, FIU is 14-12 ATS as an underdog anywhere.
Under MacIntyre, FIU is 8-10 ATS coming off a loss.
Under MacIntyre, FIU is 8-11 ATS in conference games.


FIU (+5.5) won 33-27 at Sam Houston last year.
Conference USA home underdogs are 4-3 ATS in league games.


Texas-El Paso @ Louisiana Tech (-7)
Texas-El Paso (1-6, 1-3)
Miners beat FIU 30-21 LW, outrushing Panthers 211-85.
UTEP had been outrushed 1,145-466 in its I-A losses.
UTEP has 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Miners have 26 starts back on offensive line, mostly at I-AA level.
Soph QB Locklear came with the new coach from I-AA Austin Peay.


UTEP is 6-9 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog (1-3 TY).
UTEP is 19-13 ATS in last 32 conference games.
Miners are 10-16-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
UTEP lost 27-24 to I-AA Southern Utah.
Miners allowed 34.8 ppg in their four road games.


Louisiana Tech (2-4, 1-2)
Tech is 1-4 vs I-A teams, with three losses by 7 or less points.
Bulldogs are +3 in turnovers last two games (minus-8 in first three).
Tech has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tech has 79 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Bullock is 48-68/557 passing (6 TD, no INTs).


Under Cumbie, Tech is 4-5 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Cumbie is 4-5 ATS as a home favorite.
As a head coach, Cumbie is 4-9 ATS as a favorite.
Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Under Cumbie, Tech is 9-13 ATS coming off a loss.


Louisiana Tech won 10 of last 11 games against UTEP.
Miners are 0-5 SU/3-2 ATS in their last five visits to Ruston.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
C-USA home favorites are 4-4 ATS in conference games.
 

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting spreads, Week 8
— Bills (-3) @ Seattle
— Bears (-3) @ Washington
— Panthers @ Denver (-7.5)
— Chiefs (-10) @ Las Vegas
— Cowboys @ San Francisco (-4.5)
— Giants @ Pittsburgh (-6)

Quote of the Day
“We’re all going to be dead soon, and it really doesn’t matter anymore. So there’s zero pressure. You have an opportunity to carry the organization forward, to double down on the tradition and history of what this organization has. And what else would you expect than someone expecting you to win all the time?”
Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla, talking about Boston repeating as NBA champs

Tuesday’s quiz
Arizona Cardinals have played in one Super Bowl; who was their QB in that game?

Monday’s quiz
Green Bay Packers are a publicly-owned team; of the other 31 NFL owners, Bengals owner Mike Brown is the least wealthy.

Sunday’s quiz
Barry Bonds was walked intentionally 120 times in 2004, the most of any player ever; other than Bonds, Willie McCovey (1969) has received the most intentional walks in a season. He had 45 intentional walks that year.

******************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

Ravens 41, Buccaneers 31
Baltimore won/covered last five games, scoring 28-35-41-30-41 points.
First seven drives, Ravens ran 40 plays for 379 yards, 34 points.
RB Henry carried ball 15 times for 169 yards.
Ravens are 10-4 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
Both of Buccaneers’ star WR’s (Evans/Godwin) left with injuries.
Tampa Bay led 10-0 after the first quarter.
Buccaneers scored 33-30-51-31 points in last four games.
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS last seven games as a home underdog.
Buccaneers are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC teams.

Cardinals 17, Chargers 15
On their first drive, Chargers fumbled on Arizona’s 2-yard line.
Chargers wound up kicking five field goals on their eight drives.
Last four games, on 17 2nd half drives, Chargers have no TD’s, 4 FG’s.
Chargers scored 22-26-23 points in wins, 10-10-15 in losses.
Chargers are 3-12 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Arizona drove 56 yards, kicked game-winning FG at the gun.
Cardinals are 17-12 ATS last 29 games coming off a loss.
Chargers were 6-14 on third down, Arizona 2-7
Murray’s 44-yard TD run put Cardinals ahead 14-9.
Cardinals are 8-5 ATS last 13 games as a home underdog.

— OK, let’s say you’re voting for who gets into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Let’s take a look at the blind resume for two candidates (both QB’s):
Player A: 117-117 regular season W-L, 8-4 playoffs.
Won two Super Bowls
Player B: 72-72 regular season W-L, 8-2 playoffs.
Won two Super Bowls
Who gets in? Both? Neither? Just Player A? Just Player B?
Both won two Super Bowls, with a .500 regular season record. Seems logical that both of them should get in, or neither one, right?

— Cleveland Browns are planning on building a domed stadium in suburban Brook Park, which apparently will be privately funded.

— Giants’ QB Daniel Jones is the only starting QB since 2000 with no passing TD’s in six consecutive home games.

— When the Lions play in Green Bay on November 3rd, it’ll be their first game outdoors this season, their eighth game this year.

Famous birthdays, October 22:
Christopher Lloyd, 86
Wilbur Wood, 83
Jeff Goldblum, 72
Jamie Quirk, 70
Luis Zendejas, 63
Ichiro Suzuki, 51
Carmen Ejogo, 50
Robinson Cano, 42
Corbin Burnes, 30

There will be scapegoats:
— Oklahoma has lost three of its last four games, is 132nd in the country in offense; they fired offensive coordinator Seth Littrell Sunday.
Littrell was North Texas’ head coach from 2016-22; he was an analyst at Oklahoma last year, was promoted to OC this year when Jeff Lebby left to become Mississippi State’s head coach.

— Oklahoma is an underdog of 20.5 points vs Ole Miss this week; it would be the first time since 1997 that the Sooners were an underdog of 20+ points- 348 games ago.

— Utah Utes offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig resigned (was fired) Sunday; Utah lost its last three games, scoring a total of 36 points. Mike Bajakian was promoted to QB coach/offensive coordinator (on an interim basis).
Bajakian joined Utah this year as an analyst after spending four seasons as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Northwestern, a school exactly known for offense, but he was also a QB coach for the Tampa Bay Bucs from 2015-18.

— East Carolina fired football coach Mike Houston after their 3-4 start; Houston was 27-38 in 5+ seasons coaching the Pirates, getting to bowl games in 2021, 2022, but ECU lost its last two games, giving up 100 points to Charlotte/Army. Not good.

— USC has led in the 4th quarter of all their games this season, but they’re 3-4; over the last 20 years, only one other team has led in the 4th quarter of their first seven games, and been under .500 (Utah State in 2011).

Movie of the Day: One on One (1977)- A small-town basketball star goes to college and tries to impress his tutor, teammates, and coach.
Robby Benson is the star; lot has changed since this movie was made (I was in high school, for example) but some of it still holds up. Annette O’Toole is his tutor and a very young Melanie Griffith has a cameo at the start of the movie.
One on One was filmed at Colorado State; I think they still use that arena.

— In September, parlays accounted for 32.3% of sports bets in New Jersey, 72.5% of their gross revenue. Parlays are a casino’s very good friend.

— Do NFL coaches get drug tested? I’m wondering this because Detroit coach Dan Campbell does some weird stuff— he takes chances, reckless chances at times.
First possession Sunday, Lions tried a fake punt in Minnesota; it failed badly, but the Lions were good enough to win anyway, kicking a field goal at the end. Couple of years ago against the Rams, Detroit tried an onside kick/fake punt in the first half….of the same game!!!

— 2016 Atlanta Falcons had five coaches on their staff who are currently NFL head coaches:
Dan Quinn, Washington
Raheem Morris, Atlanta
Mike McDaniel, Miami
Jeff Ulbrich, Jets
Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco

— Oh, by the way, the two quarterbacks up above?
Player B is Jim Plunkett
Player A in Eli Manning
 

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TUESDAY, OCTOBER 22

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
SHSU at FIU07:30 PMSHSU -4.5
O 46.5
+500 +500
UTEP at LT08:00 PMUTEP +6.5
U 48.5
+500 +500
 

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NCAAFB BEST BETS OCTOBER !

10/22/2024............................2 - 2 - 0...............................50.00%..........................- 1.00
10/15/2024............................3 - 1 - 0...............................75.00%..........................+ 9.50
10/12/2024............................4 - 10 - 0.............................28.57%..........................- 35.00
10/11/2024..............................3 - 2 - 0.............................60.00%...........................+ 4.00
10/10/2024..............................2 - 2 - 0.............................50.00%...........................- 1.00
10/09/2024..............................1 - 1 - 0.............................50.00%...........................- 0.50
10/08/2024..............................1 - 1 - 0.............................50.00%...........................- 0.50
10/05/2024...........................14 - 18 - 1...........................43.75%............................- 29.00
10/04/2024................................5 - 2 - 0...........................71.42%............................+ 19.50
10/03/2024.,..............................3 - 1 - 0...........................75.00%............................+ 9.50

TOTALS..................................38 - 40 - 1............................48.71%............................ - 24.50


AUG- SEPT TOTALS............119 - 95 - 3..........................55.60%............................+ 75.20
 

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting college football spreads, Week 8
— Boise State (-3) @ UNLV
— Notre Dame (-12.5) vs Navy (@ Meadowlands)
— Washington @ Indiana (-6.5)
— Illinois @ Oregon (-21.5)
— BYU @ Central Florida (-1.5)
— Texas Tech @ TCU (-6.5)

Quote of the Day
“If a guy is going to cheat you on the golf course, he’s going to cheat you in business.”
Arnold Palmer, as told to Rick Reilly

Wednesday’s quiz
Last two times the New York Knicks won the NBA title, which team did they beat in the Finals both times?

Tuesday’s quiz
Arizona Cardinals have played in one Super Bowl; Hall of Famer Kurt Warner was their QB in that game.

Monday’s quiz
Green Bay Packers are a publicly-owned team; of the other 31 NFL owners, Bengals owner Mike Brown is the least wealthy.

***********************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

— Celtics 132, Knicks 109
Celtics led 74-55 at halftime.
Boston shot 29-61 on the arc, and they missed their last 14.
Jayson Tatum scored 37 points.

— Lakers 110, Timberwolves 103
Anthony Davis scored 36 points, grabbed 16 rebounds.
Lebron/Bronny James are first father/son to play in same NBA game.
Lakers had lost their last six season openers.

— Sam Houston 10, Florida International 7
Game was scoreless at halftime.
Sam Houston kicked a 20-yard FG with 1:57 left for the road win.
Bearkats are bowl eligible for the first time as a I-A team.

— Louisiana Tech 14, Texas-El Paso 10
Tech was 6-17 on third down, Miners 1-14.
Bulldogs ran ball 30 times for 7 yards, UTEP 47 times for 166 yards.
Tech has won 11 of its last 12 games against UTEP.

— All 32 NHL teams played Tuesday; the over/under on goals scored for all 32 teams was 101.5. Night ended with 98 goals being scored.

— American League teams won last two World Series; leagues split the last 12 Fall Classics.

— When the Rams won Sunday, Sean McVay tied John Robinson for the most wins (79) by a coach in franchise history.

Famous birthdays, October 23rd:
Weird Al Yankovic, 65
Doug Flutie, 62
Mike Tomczak, 62
Keith Van Horn, 49
Ryan Reynolds, 48
Kyle Gibson, 37
Nick Bosa, 27
Dylan Carlson, 26

— Random fact that is kind of amazing; Pittsburgh Steelers have had only three head coaches since 1969- Chick Noll, Bill Cowher, Mike Tomlin.
Steelers are only NFL team that hasn’t played a divisional game yet.

— Indiana Hoosiers QB Kurtis Rourke had surgery on his right (passing) thumb, is out for a while. Indiana, off to its best start since 1967, hosts Washington Saturday.

— Hawai’i is joining the Mountain West on a full-time basis in two years, which figures to hurt their basketball program. Hawaii is 34-21 in Big West games the last three years, but moving up to the Mountain West is a big step up, just ask UNLV.

— If you have a son who is athletic and kind of tall, get him a basketball and send him outside to practice……..a lot
Denver Nuggets signed Aaron Gordon to a 4-year, $133M contract extension.
Washington Wizards signed Corey Kispert to a 4-year, $54M contract extension.
Atlanta Hawks signed Jalen Johnson to a 5-year, $150M contract extension.
Golden State Warriors signed Moses Moody to a 3-year, $39M contract extension.
Houston Rockets signed Alperen Sengun to a 5-year, $185M contract extension.
Minnesota Timberwolves signed Rudy Gobert to a 3-year, $110M contract extension.
It is really, really hard to make it to the NBA, but if you do, it pays off handsomely.

— Fernando Valenzuela, the great Dodger pitcher, passed away Tuesday at age 63.
In 1981, Valenzuela won the NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards as a 20-year-old by going 13-7 with a 2.48 ERA.
Valenzuela went to six consecutive All-Star Games from 1981-86 and also finished in the top five of the Cy Young voting in 1982, 1985, and 1986.
June 19, 1990, Valenzuela pitched a no-hitter against St Louis, the same night Dave Stewart also threw a no-hitter, the only time two no-hitters happened on the same day.
Valenzuela had a 173-153 record in the majors, then was 5-1, 1.98 in eight playoff games.
RIP, sir.
 

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Tuesday, October 22


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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Wednesday’s games
Liberty
(-25) @ Kennesaw State
Liberty (5-0, 3-0)
Liberty won its three C-USA games, by 6-18-7 points.
Liberty is scoring 31 ppg vs I-A teams (1-3 ATS).
Flames have 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Flames have 52 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Salter has 18 career starts.


Under Chadwell, Liberty is 4-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Chadwell, Liberty is 6-6 ATS in conference games.
Liberty is running ball for 219 yards/game in I-A tilts.
Flames are 7-8 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Liberty gave up 24 points in four of its five games.


Kennesaw State (0-6, 0-2)
Kennesaw lost its first five I-A games by 12-24-21-39-9 points.
Owls also lost 27-13 to UT-Martin, a I-AA team.
Kennesaw has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Owls have 33 starts back on offensive line, added six transfers.
Last three games, Owls completed last then half their passes


Kennesaw is 1-4 ATS in its I-A games.
Kennesaw has yet to gain more than 270 yards in a game TY.
Last three games, Owls are minus-6 in turnovers.
Kennesaw is 2-10 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Under is 4-1 in their I-A games this season.


These teams haven’t met as I-A opponents.


Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State (-21)
Middle Tennessee (2-5, 1-2)
MTSU is 1-5 vs I-A teams, outscored 223-83 (37-14 average).
MTSU was held under 100 YR in five of its last six games.
MTSU has 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Blue Raiders have 26 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Vattiato has started 18 games.


MTSU is 7-11-1 ATS last 19 games as a road underdog.
In his career, Mason is 18-18-1 ATS as a road underdog.
MTSU is minus-6 in turnovers in its I-A games.
MTSU is 6-13 ATS in its last 18 conference games.
Blue Raiders are 8-16 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win


Jacksonville State (3-3, 2-0)
Gamecocks won their last three games, scoring 44-63-54 points.
Jax State ran for 273-384-334 yards in winning last three games.
Jax State has 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
Gamecocks have 67 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Huff played last two years at I-AA Furman.


Under Rodriguez, Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Rodriguez, Gamecocks are 7-2 ATS in conference games.
Jax State was +11 in turnovers the last three games.
Under Rodriguez, Gamecocks are 11-7 ATS coming off a win.
Over is 5-1 in their games this season.


Jacksonville State (+3) won 45-30 at Middle Tennessee LY.
MTSU gained 563 yards in that game, but was minus-3 in turnovers.
 

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 8

Sunday’s games
Jets
(-7) @ Patriots
Jets (2-5)
Jets are 0-4 SU/ATS in last four games.
Jets gave up 23-37 points in two games since coaching change.
Jets scored 24-24 points in wins, 19-9-17-20-15 in losses.
Team total: under 3-1 last four
Opponents’ team total: over 3-0 last three


Jets are 2-7-1 ATS last ten games as a road favorite.
Jets are 15-20 ATS last 35 games coming off a loss.
Last two weeks, Jets were outscored 27-3 in 2nd half.
Rodgers is 161-90-1 as an NFL starter, 3-5 with Jets.
Jets are 3-9 ATS in last 12 AFC East road games.


Patriots (1-6)
New England lost last six games, outscored 90-43 in first half.
Last two weeks, Patriots gave up 193-192-171 rushing yards.
Patriots are 30-45 since Tom Brady left town.
Team total: under 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: over 5-2


NE is 7-20-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog.
New England lost in England LW; no bye week after.
Patriots are 0-5 against the spread last five games.
Patriots are 4-13 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Rookie QB Maye is 0-2 as an NFL starter.
Maye is 24-41/265 passing in his two games.


Jets outgained New England 400-139 in 24-3 win in Week 3.
Patriots are 23-4 in last 27 series games.
Jets are 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in last eight visits to Foxboro.
Last six meetings stayed under the total.


Eagles @ Bengals (-2.5)
Eagles (4-2)
Eagles won three of their last four games.
Last two games, Eagles didn’t allow a TD on 20 drives.
Philly outgained last two opponents, 711-363.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1 last four


Philly is 10-14 ATS in last 24 games as an underdog.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 6-9 ATS as an underdog.
QB Hurts is 40-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC opponents.
Eagles are 6-2-1 ATS last nine games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
NFC East road underdogs are 7-2 ATS in non-divisional games.


Bengals (3-4)
Cincy won three of last four games, after an 0-3 start.
Bengals are 0-3 at home, losing by 6-5-3 points.
Last week, Bengals ran opening kick back 100 yards for a TD.
Team total: over 4-3
Opponents’ team total: over 3-3-1


Bengals are 9-5-2 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
QB Burrow is 37-28-1 as an NFL starter.
Cincinnati is 14-5-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
Bengals are 8-7-2 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Bengals are 10-1-2 ATS last 13 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC North home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Bengals are 3-0-2 SU/5-0 ATS in last five series games.
Eagles are 0-1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in last two visits to Cincinnati.
Under is 3-3 in last three meetings.


Packers (-4.5) @ Jaguars
Packers (5-2)
Packers won five of their last six games.
Green Bay’s two losses were 34-29/31-29.
Green Bay outscored last four foes 66-22 in second half.
Team total: over 4-3
Opponents’ team total: under 5-2


Packers outscored last four opponents 56-15 in second half.
Green Bay is 3-10-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
Green Bay is 17-13-1 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
Packers are 16-13-1 ATS last 30 games vs AFC teams.
Under is 3-0 in their last three games.
NFC North teams are 17-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Jaguars (2-5)
Jaguars scored 37-32 points in their wins, 20 or less in losses.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 9-9 ATS coming off a win.
Jaguars spent last two weeks in England, are home now.
Team total: under 4-3
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


Under Pederson, Jaguars are 4-3 ATS as a home underdog.
QB Lawrence is 23-36 as an NFL starter.
Four of their last five games went over the total.
Jaguars are 9-31 ATS in last 40 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC South favorites are 4-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Green Bay won last three meetings, by 4-4-9 points.
Packers are 3-1 SU/ATS in last four visits to Jacksonville.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.


Titans @ Lions (-11)
Titans (1-5)
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; their win was 31-12.
Tennessee is minus-9 in turnovers, have had two punts blocked.
Titans were held under 300 TY in five of their six games.
Team total: under 5-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-2-2


Tennessee is 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog.
Titans has trailed in only one of their six games at halftime.
Tennessee has been outscored 94-43 in second half.
Titans are 12-12-1 ATS last 25 games vs NFC opponents.
QB Rudolph is 8-6-1 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee averaged 5.3 or worse yards/pass attempt in every game.


Lions (5-1)
Lions scored 42-47-31 points last three games (15 TDs on 31 drives).
Detroit has converted 30 of 64 third down plays.
Opponents have converted 20 of 64 third down plays.
Team total: over 3-0 last three
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2


Under Campbell, Lions are 11-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Detroit is 10-5 ATS last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 17-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last two weeks, Lions averaged 12.4/10.3/8.5 yards/pass attempt.
Lions have outscored opponents 34-6 in last 2:00 of each half.


Tennessee won last six series games (5-0 ATS last five)
Titans are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in last three visits to Detroit.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Falcons (-2.5) @ Buccaneers
Falcons (4-3)
Atlanta won three of its last four games SU.
Falcons were held to 10-17-14 points in their losses.
Three of Falcons’ last four games went over the total.
Team total: over 4-3
Opponents’ team total: over 3-0-1 last four


Atlanta is 2-0 SU on road (22-21 Eagles/38-20 Panthers)
Falcons are 8-12-1 ATS last 21 games coming off a loss.
QB Cousins is 81-73-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 5-14 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Atlanta is 6-4 ATS in last 10 NFC South road games.


Buccaneers (4-3)
Buccaneers split last four games, scoring 33-30-51-31 points.
Bucs scored 17 TD’s on their last 42 drives.
Tampa Bay is 1-4-1 ATS in last six NFC South home games.
Team total: over 5-2
Opponents’ team total: over 5-2


Tampa Bay lost star WRs Evans/Godwin to injury Monday nite.
Since 2021, Bucs are 2-5 ATS as a home underdog.
QB Mayfield is 46-51 as an NFL starter, 14-12 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay’s last four games went over the total.
Bucs are 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games coming off a loss.
Bucs are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Atlanta (-2.5) beat Tampa Bay 36-30 in OT in Week 5.
Cousins threw for 509 yards in that game.
Teams split last six series games.
Falcons are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in last four visits to Tampa.


Cardinals @ Dolphins (-3)
Cardinals (3-4)
Short week, long travel for Arizona after Monday nite’s last-second win.
Cardinals are 2-7 ATS last nine games coming off a win.
In its three wins, Arizona outscored foes 41-16 in second half.
Team total: under 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


QB Murray is 31-41-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 16-9 ATS last 25 games as a road underdog.
Arizona is 8-7 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last five games, opponents are 34-61 on third down.
Cardinals are 11-6 ATS last 17 games vs AFC opponents.
NFC West road underdogs are 2-4 ATS in non-divisional games.


Dolphins (2-4)
QB Tagovailoa is expected back, after missing last four games.
Miami allowed 17-10 points in its wins, 31-24-16-31 in losses.
Dolphins have already played four QB’s in their 2-4 start.
Tagovailoa is 33-21 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 6-0
Opponents’ team total: over 3-3


Miami lost four of its last five games SU.
Last five games, Dolphins have four touchdowns on 55 drives.
Miami is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite TY (16-6 from 2020-23).
Dolphins are 8-12 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 7-8 ATS in games coming off a loss
AFC East favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Dolphins won last two meetings, 34-31/26-23
Teams split last two meetings in Miami.
Four of last five series games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
Last five series games went over the total.


Ravens (-9) @ Browns
Ravens (5-2)
Short week for Ravens after Monday night’s win.
Baltimore won/covered last five games, scoring 28-35-41-30-41 points.
Ravens have outscored opponents 109-65 in first half.
Ravens have run ball for 210.9 yards/game.
Team total: over 5-2
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1


Ravens are 10-4 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 65-25 as an NFL starter.
Baltimore is 11-6 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Ravens are 10-6 ATS in last 16 AFC North road games.
Last two weeks, Ravens averaged 11.0/11.0 yards/pass attempt.


Browns (1-6)
QB Watson is OFY; Winston is starting QB now, Zappe the backup.
Cleveland scored 17-18-15-16-13-16-14 points in its 1-6 start.
Browns have gained 230-297-217-152-215-244-336 yards.
Team total: under 7-0
Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


Browns are 5-3-1 ATS last nine games as a home underdog.
QB Winston is 34-46 as an NFL starter.
Cleveland is 12-5-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in last seven AFC North games.
Browns have averaged 5.1 or less yards/pass attempt in every game.
Under is 5-1 in their last six games.


Baltimore is 15-6 SU in last 21 series games.
Ravens split their last six visits to Cleveland.
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.


Colts @ Texans (-6)
Colts (4-3)
Indy won four of its last five games (4-0-1 ATS)
All seven Colts games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Underdogs are 5-1-1 ATS in Colt games this season.
Team total: over 3-3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


Colts are 6-7-1 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
Indy is 13-11-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
QB Richardson is 5-4 as an NFL starter.
Colts are 3-1-1 ATS last five AFC South road games.
Last two weeks, Colts outscored opponents 23-7 in second half.


Texans (5-2)
Texans have four wins by 6 or fewer points.
Houston gave up 34-24 points in its two losses.
Texans converted 23 of last 53 third down plays.
Team total: under 5-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


Texans are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite
Houston is 6-3 ATS in last nine games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 15-9 as an NFL starter.
Houston is 2-5 ATS in last seven AFC South home games.
Texans held last three opponents under 300 TY.


Texans (-3) beat Colts 29-27 in Week 1, in Indy.
Colts are 6-3-1 SU in last ten games against the Texans.
Colts are 3-0-1 SU/3-1 ATS in last four visits to Houston.
Under is 6-3 in last nine series games.


Saints @ Chargers (-7)
Saints (2-5)
New Orleans lost its last five games, last three by 13-24-13 points.
Saints are 1-4 against spread in last five games.
Last three games, New Orleans was outscored 54-10 in second half.
Team total: over 4-3
Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


Saints are 16-6-1 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
Last two weeks, Saints ran ball only 57 times, for 224 yards.
Last 5+ years, New Orleans is 20-15-1 ATS coming off a loss (1-3 TY).
Saints are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
Rookie QB Rattler is 0-2 as an NFL starter.
Over is 5-2 in their games this season.
NFC South road underdogs are 4-2 ATS in non-divisional games.


Chargers (3-3)
Chargers scored 22-26-23 points in wins, 10-10-15 in losses.
Last four games, Chargers were outscored 49-12 in 2nd half.
Last three halves, Chargers have no TD’s, 6 FG’s on 13 drives.
Team total: over 3-3
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1


Chargers are 12-22-1 ATS last 35 games as home favorites.
Chargers are 10-8-1 ATS in their last 19 games vs NFC teams.
Chargers are 19-25-1 ATS in last 45 games coming off a loss.
QB Herbert is 33-36 as an NFL starter.
Under is 5-1 in their first six games.
AFC West favorites are 5-3 ATS in non-divisional games.


Saints won last four meetings, all by 7 or fewer points.
Saints won two of last three visits to San Diego.
Last six series games went over the total.


Bills (-3) @ Seahawks
Bills (5-2)
Buffalo gave up 35-23 points in its two losses (4-0 allow less than 23).
Buffalo outscored last three opponents 47-9 in second half.
Last three games, Bills are +5 in turnovers (5-0).
Team total: over 5-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


Buffalo is 16-12 ATS in last 28 games as a road favorite.
Bills are 26-19-1 ATS in last 46 games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 73-37 as NFL starter.
Last four games, Bills converted only 14 of 48 third down plays.
Buffalo is 16-5-1 ATS last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
AFC East teams are 5-14-1 ATS in non-divisional games.


Seahawks (4-3)
Seattle allowed 42-29-36 points in losses, 20 or less in wins.
Seattle is 6-4 ATS last ten games as a home underdog.
Seahawks are 12-20-3 ATS last 35 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 7-0
Opponents’ team total: over 5-2


QB Smith is 34-40 as an NFL starter, 22-21 with Seattle.
Last three games, opponents converted 20-43 third down plays.
Seattle is 14-16-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 5-2 in their games this season.
Last three weeks, opponents ran ball for 186 yards/game.
NFC West underdogs are 3-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Teams split their last six meetings.
Bills are 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in last three visits to Seattle.
Underdogs are 5-2 ATS in last seven series games.


Bears (-2.5) @ Commanders
Bears (4-2)
Bears scored 24-24-36-35 points in their wins, 13-16 in losses.
Last three games, Chicago scored 13 TD’s on 29 drives.
Bears have outscored opponents 84-45 in second half.
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 6-0


Under Eberflus, Bears are 5-3-1 ATS as favorites.
Chicago is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
Bears are 1-9 SU/3-7 ATS last ten post-bye games (3-0 ATS last three)
Last three games, Chicago was +6 in turnovers (7-1).
Bears last three games went over the total.


Commanders (4-2)
Rookie QB Daniels (ribs) is hurt; veteran Mariota is the backup.
Mariota is 35-41 as an NFL starter.
Commanders won/covered five of their last six games.
Last six games, Commanders scored 19 TD’s, kicked 20 FG’s on 51 drives.
Team total: over 6-1
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


Washington allowed 37-30 points in their two losses.
Washington converted 38 of last 74 third down plays.
Commanders are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Commanders are 4-1 ATS in last fie games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Washington ran ball for 200+ yards in four of its five wins.
Over is 5-2 in Washington games this year.


Commanders won eight of last ten series games.
Road team won last five meetings.
Bears won 40-20/31-15 in last two visits here.
Over is 5-1 in last six series games.


Panthers @ Broncos (-9)
Panthers (1-6)
Carolina’s six losses are by 37-23-10-26-18-33 points.
Carolina is 2-10-1 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.
Panthers gave up 20+ points in first half in six of seven games.
QB Dalton was in a car accident Tuesday (check status)
Team total: under 4-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1


Carolina is 4-14-2 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
Last four weeks, Panthers allowed 7.5/9.9/7.5/8.0 yards/pass play.
Over is 5-2 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers opponents are 41-86 on third down.
Carolina is 6-12 ATS last 18 games vs AFC teams.
Dalton is 84-86-2 as an NFL starter, 1-5 with Carolina.
Last three games, Carolina was outscored 38-13 in 2nd half.


Broncos (4-3)
Denver won/covered four of its last five games.
Broncos outscored last six opponents 76-24 in second half.
Denver is only 24-91 on third down conversions.
Team total: over 4-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


Under Payton, Denver is 4-6 ATS as a favorite.
In wins, Broncos are +5 in turnovers; in losses, minus-5.
Denver is 22-18-2 ATS in last 42 games vs NFC teams.
Under Payton, Denver is 6-6 ATS coming off a win.
AFC West favorites are 5-3 ATS in non-divisional games.


Broncos won four of last six series games.
Panthers lost 21-20/20-17 in last two visits to Denver.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Chiefs (-10) @ Raiders
Chiefs (6-0)
Chiefs won their first six games (4-2 ATS), by 7-1-5-7-13-10 points.
Kansas City is 6-0 despite being minus-5 in turnovers.
Chiefs trailed at halftime in three of the six games.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2


Fourth road games in six weeks for Chiefs, with bye mixed in.
Chiefs are 21-10 ATS in last 31 AFC West road games.
QB Mahomes is 95-25 as an NFL starter.
Last four games, Chiefs are 29-58 on third down.
Chiefs have outscored opponents 73-40 in second half.
Chiefs’ last four games stayed under the total.

Raiders (2-5)
Raiders have 16 turnovers in seven games (minus-13).
Raiders have one TD, five FG’s on their last 23 drives.
Raiders’ two wins were by 3-4 points, losses by 12-14-16-19-5.
Team total: under 4-3
Opponents’ team total: over 4-3


Raiders are 9-10-1 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.
Las Vegas is 16-20-1 ATS in last 37 games following a loss.
Opponents have converted only 24 of 83 third down plays.
QB Minshew is 17-25 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Raiders are 14-7 ATS in last 21 AFC West home games.


Kansas City won 15 of last 18 series games.
Chiefs are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in last four visits to Las Vegas.
Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.


Cowboys @ 49ers (-4)
Cowboys (3-3)
Cowboys gave up 17-15-17 points in wins, 44-28-47 in losses.
Road team won/covered all six of their games.
Cowboys are 3-0 on road, 0-3 at home.
Dallas is 11-5 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Team total: over 3-3
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3


Dallas is 7-6 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.
QB Prescott is 78-49 as an NFL starter.
Cowboys allowed 14.2/12.1/10.3 yards/pass attempt in their losses.
Cowboys allowed 2.7/6.8/4.3 yards/pass attempt in their wins.
Over is 4-2 in Dallas games this season.
Cowboys are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 post-bye games.
NFC East road underdogs are 7-2 ATS in non-divisional games.


49ers (3-4)
49ers have losses by 1-3-6-10 points, wins by 13-17-12 points.
49ers are 12-8 ATS last 20 games as a home favorite.
49ers scored 32-30-36 points in wins, 17-24-23-18 in losses.
Team total: under 4-3
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1-1


WR Aiyuk is OFY, Samuel has pneumonia.
49ers were outscored 79-53 in 2nd half of last five games.
QB Purdy is 24-9 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 11-7 ATS last 18 games coming off a loss.
Over is 5-2 in their games this season.
NFC West favorites are 3-5-1 ATS in non-divisional games.


49ers won last three meetings, by a combined 84-39.
Cowboys are 4-2 SU/2-3-1 ATS in last six visits to Santa Clara.
Over is 9-4 in last 13 series games.


Monday’s game
Steelers
(-6.5) @ Giants
Steelers (5-2)
QB Wilson averaged 8.7 yards/pass attempt in his first Steelers start.
Wilson is 125-79-1 as an NFL starter, 18-27 since 2021.
Steelers are 4-2 ATS last six games as a road favorite.
Team total: under 4-3
Opponents’ team total: under 6-1


Steelers allowed 10-6-10-13-15 points in wins, 27-20 in losses.
Pittsburgh is 12-7-1 in its last 20 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh gained 409 yards LW, its most this season.
Steelers are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC teams.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
AFC North road teams are 10-4 ATS in non-divisional games.


Giants (2-4)
Giants are 0-4 at home, scoring one TD on 41 drives.
Giants lost their home games, b 22-5-10-25 points.
Under is 6-1 in their games this season.
Team total: under 5-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-3


Under Daboll, Giants are 8-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Daboll, Giants are 14-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Daboll, Giants are 8-3-1 ATS vs AFC opponents.
QB Jones is 25-42-1 as an NFL starter.
Opponents are only 25-83 on third down.
NFC East home teams are 2-7 ATS in non-division games.


Pittsburgh won last three meetings, by 10-10-4 points.
Steelers won last three road series games (2-1 ATS)
Last four meetings stayed under the total.
 

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