Cnotes 2021-2022 nba trends, news, best bets and opinions thru the playoffs !

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SATURDAY, MARCH 19
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


MIL at MIN 05:00 PM
MIL -3.0
O 244.0
+500 +500

DAL at CHA 07:00 PM
CHA -1.0
+500

LAL at WAS 08:00 PM
WAS -2.0
U 228.5

+500 +500

DET at CLE 08:00 PM
DET +6.5
O 216.5

+500 +500
 

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MARCH BEST BETS & OPINIONS

Date .......................W-L-T.....................%...................Units

03/19/2022..........5-3-0...........62.50%..................+8.50
03/18/2022.......12-12-0...........50.00%..................- 6.00
03/17/2022...........2-0-0.........100.00%.................+10.00
03/16/2022........12-12-0..........50.00%...................-6.00
03/15/2022...........2-6-0...........25.00%..................-23.00
03/14/2022.........12-5-1............69.44%................+32.50
03/13/2022.........11-3-0...........78.57%.................+38.50
03/12/2022...........7-7-0...........50.00%...................-3.50
03/11/2022.........9-11-0............45.00%.................-15.50
03/10/2022...........3-1-0............75.00%..................+9.50
03/09/2022.......11-12-1.............47.82%.................-11.00
03/08/2022...........3-8-1.............29.17%.................-29.00
03/07/2022.........10-6-0.............62.50%................+17.00
03/06/2022...........6-9-0.............40.00%.................-19.50
03/05/2022...........6-6-0.............50.00%...................-3.00
03/04/2022.........6-10-0.............37.50%..................-25.00
03/03/2022...........7-7-0.............50.00%....................-3.50
03/02/2022.........10-5-1..............65.63%................+22.50
03/01/2022...........5-6-0..............45.45%...................-8.00

TOTALS..........139-129-4.............51.86%.................-14.50
.


BEST BETS:

03/19/2022............4-2-0..............66.66%.............+ 9.00
03/18/2022............9-7-0..............56.25%.............+ 6.50
03/17/2022............2-0-0............100.00%.............+10.00
03/16/2022............8-8-0..............50.00%...............- 4.00
03/15/2022............2-6-0..............25.00%...............-23.00
03/14/2022............8-4-1..............66.66%..............+18.00
03/13/2022............9-2-0..............81.81%..............+34.00
03/12/2022............4-4-0..............50.00%%..............-2.00
03/11/2022............6-8-0..............42.85%...............- 14.00
03/10/2022............3-1-0..............75.00%.................+9.50
03/09/2022............8-8-0..............50.00%.................- 4.00
03/08/2022............3-4-0..............42.85%.................- 7.00
03/07/2022............6-5-0..............54.54%................+ 2.50
03/06/2022............4-8-0..............33.33%................-24.00
03/05/2022............4-4-0..............50.00%.................- 3.00
03/04/2022............4-8-0..............33.33%................- 24.00
03/03/2022............5-3-0..............62.50%................+ 8.50
03/02/2022............7-3-0..............70.00%................+18.50
03/01/2022............3-2-0..............60.00%.................+ 4.00

TOTALS...............99-87-0..............53.22%................+15.50



UPDATED ON 03/19/2022
 

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Sunday’s 6-pack

Over/under win totals for this baseball season:
100.5— Dodgers
92.5— White Sox, Astros, Blue Jays
91.5— Braves, Rays, Bronx
90.5— Brewers
89.5— Mets
87.5— Padres

Quote of the Day
“I’ll give you exactly what I can tell you. I have an agent who I haven’t talked to yet. I don’t know who he’s talking to. I have absolutely no idea. But when I get home I’ll talk to my agent and discuss things with my agent. I have no idea [if things will be resolved soon]. I literally have not — I’ve had three different agents in the last month……..”
Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard

Sunday’s quiz
Which two NBA teams has Eric Musselman coached?

Saturday’s quiz
Before the Kansas City Royals existed, the A’s called Kansas City home, from 1955-68.

Friday’s quiz
Eric Musselman’s father Bill was once the basketball coach for the Minnesota Gophers; baseball Hall of Famer Dave Winfield played basketball for Musselman’s Gophers.

**************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Saturday…….

Saint Peter’s 70, Murray State 60:

— Saint Peter’s first-ever NCAA tourney wins were both this week.
— Peacocks never trailed; they held Murray State to 34.6% from floor.
— 15-seeds to make the Sweet 16:
2013— Florida Gulf Coast
2021— Oral Roberts
2022— Saint Peter’s

Bad news for Saint Peter’s: There is no way in hell Shaheen Holloway will be the coach at Saint Peter’s next season, The big money $chool$ will come calling.

Gonzaga 82, Memphis 78:
— Memphis led this game 41-31 at halftime.
— Timme had 25 points, 11 rebounds for Gonzaga.
— Very intense, spirited contest; seemed like a Final Four game.

Arkansas 53, New Mexico State 48:
— Razorbacks held Aggies star Teddy Allen to 12 points.
— Arkansas won despite shooting 27.5% from floor.
— Razorbacks move on to play Gonzaga Thursday.

North Carolina 93, Baylor 86, OT:
— Carolina led 67-42 with 10:20 left in regulation.
— Tar Heels made 11-25 on arc, 26-37 on foul line, needed OT to win.
— Baylor made only 9-37 shots on the arc.

Kansas 79, Creighton 72:
— Jayhawks scored last six points to salt game away.
— Bluejays were down two starters; they shot 12-28 on arc, 9-31 inside arc. — Three guys on Creighton played all 40:00.

Michigan 76, Tennessee 68:
— Michigan trailed 37-32 at half; they were down 15 in Thursday’s win.
— Tennessee shot 2-18 on arc; hard to win that way.
— Last four years, #3-seeds are 5-11 ATS in second round.

Providence 79, Richmond 51:
— Friars were 12-22 on arc, Richmond 1-22 (8-21 on foul line)
— Spiders shot 64.5% inside arc and still lost by 28.
— Providence advances to play Kansas in Sweet 16.

UCLA 79, Saint Mary’s 72:
— UCLA won 10 of its last 12 games.
— Bruins shot 59.5% inside arc.
— UCLA star Juzang re-injured his ankle (check status)

Elsewhere in the world………
5) Some baseball teams are spending lot of money…….
— Phillies gave OF Nick Castellanos $100M for five years.
— Phillies also gave OF/DH Kyle Schwarber a 4-year for just under $20M/year.
— Twins gave SS Carlos Correa $105M for three years.
— Braves gave closer Kenley Jansen $16M for one year.

Phillies’ on-base %age from their leadoff spot last year was their lowest since 2009, which is why the Schwarber signing is a big deal.

4) Cleveland Browns traded three first-round picks and couple other picks to Houston, in exchange for QB Deshaun Watson. Browns are 30-31 with Baker Mayfield as their starter, a vast improvement from the pre-Mayfield years.

Watson didn’t play last year because of his legal issues; he figures to be suspended for at least six games. Texans were 29-27 with Watson starting at QB.

3) Las Vegas Raiders traded a first round pick to Green Bay for WR Davante Adams, re-uniting him with his college QB, Derek Carr. Adams will make $67.5M for three years, with lot more available in incentives. Plus, I’m guessing it is more fun to live in Las Vegas than Green Bay.

2) Saturday was a busy day for the Super Bowl champion LA Rams:
— Matthew Stafford signed a four-year, $160M contract extension.
— Rams traded WR Robert Woods to Tennessee for a draft pick; this is a tough one. Woods was a great Ram; he blocks well, is a productive receiver, great teammate. He will be missed.

1) College basketball coaching moves:
— Louisville hired Knicks’ assistant Kenny Payne as its new coach.
— Florida hired San Francisco coach Todd Golden
— USF replaced Golden with assistant Chris Gerlufsen.
— Rhode Island hired former Indiana coach Archie Miller.
— Xavier hired Archie’s brother Sean to be its hoop coach (again)
 

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HOUSTON is 12-33 ATS (-24.3 Units) in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

INDIANA is 7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

SACRAMENTO is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

ATLANTA is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games in the current season.

UTAH is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

DENVER is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.
 

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Sunday, March 20


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Memphis @ Houston
Memphis
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Houston
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Memphis
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Memphis

Portland @ Indiana
Portland
Portland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indiana's last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing Portland

New Orleans @ Atlanta
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
New Orleans is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans

Phoenix @ Sacramento
Phoenix
Phoenix is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Phoenix is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Sacramento's last 9 games at home

Oklahoma City @ Orlando
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Orlando
Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Orlando's last 8 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City

Utah @ New York
Utah
Utah is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
New York
New York is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 7 games at home

Boston @ Denver
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Denver
Boston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Denver's last 18 games at home

San Antonio @ Golden State
San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games
Golden State
Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Golden State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Antonio

Toronto @ Philadelphia
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Philadelphia is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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The Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
The Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight matchups against New Orleans.
The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven Pelicans' games.
The Pelicans are 0-6 SU in their last six matchups against Atlanta.
The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last ten matchups between New Orleans and Atlanta.


The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last nine Jazz' games.
The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
The Jazz are 5-2 ATS in their last seven matchups against New York.
The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 13 Knicks' games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five matchups between Utah and New York.


The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 13 Celtics' games.
The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups against Boston.
The Celtics are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games.
The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
The total has gone UNDER in six straight matchups between Boston and Denver.


The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last ten Raptors' games.
The Sixers are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games.
The Sixers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against Toronto.
The Sixers are 12-6 SU in their last 18 home games.
 

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Dunkel

Sunday, March 20


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SUNDAY, MARCH 20
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


POR at IND 03:30 PM
POR +8.0
U 235.5
+500 +500

MEM at HOU 03:30 PM
HOU +12.0
U 235.5

+500 +500

OKC at ORL 06:00 PM
ORL -6.5
O 225.5

+500 +500

PHO at SAC 06:00 PM
PHO -9.0
U 232.5
+500 +500

NO at ATL 06:00 PM
ATL -3.5
O 233.0
+500 +500

UTA at NY 07:30 PM
NY +3.5
O 220.5

+500 +500

BOS at DEN 08:00 PM
BOS -2.5
U 221.5
+500 +500

SA at GS 08:30 PM
GS -6.0
O 227.0
+500 +500

TOR at PHI 08:30 PM
PHI -5.0
O 220.5

+500 +500
 

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MARCH BEST BETS & OPINIONS

Date .......................W-L-T.....................%...................Units

03/20/2022.........3-15-0..........16.67%..................-67.50
03/19/2022..........5-3-0...........62.50%..................+8.50
03/18/2022.......12-12-0...........50.00%..................- 6.00
03/17/2022...........2-0-0.........100.00%.................+10.00
03/16/2022........12-12-0..........50.00%...................-6.00
03/15/2022...........2-6-0...........25.00%..................-23.00
03/14/2022.........12-5-1............69.44%................+32.50
03/13/2022.........11-3-0...........78.57%.................+38.50
03/12/2022...........7-7-0...........50.00%...................-3.50
03/11/2022.........9-11-0............45.00%.................-15.50
03/10/2022...........3-1-0............75.00%..................+9.50
03/09/2022.......11-12-1.............47.82%.................-11.00
03/08/2022...........3-8-1.............29.17%.................-29.00
03/07/2022.........10-6-0.............62.50%................+17.00
03/06/2022...........6-9-0.............40.00%.................-19.50
03/05/2022...........6-6-0.............50.00%...................-3.00
03/04/2022.........6-10-0.............37.50%..................-25.00
03/03/2022...........7-7-0.............50.00%....................-3.50
03/02/2022.........10-5-1..............65.63%................+22.50
03/01/2022...........5-6-0..............45.45%...................-8.00

TOTALS..........142-144-4.............49.65%...................-82.00
.


BEST BETS:

03/20/2022..........3-19-0...............23.07...............- 40.00
03/19/2022............4-2-0..............66.66%.............+ 9.00
03/18/2022............9-7-0..............56.25%.............+ 6.50
03/17/2022............2-0-0............100.00%.............+10.00
03/16/2022............8-8-0..............50.00%...............- 4.00
03/15/2022............2-6-0..............25.00%...............-23.00
03/14/2022............8-4-1..............66.66%..............+18.00
03/13/2022............9-2-0..............81.81%..............+34.00
03/12/2022............4-4-0..............50.00%%..............-2.00
03/11/2022............6-8-0..............42.85%...............- 14.00
03/10/2022............3-1-0..............75.00%.................+9.50
03/09/2022............8-8-0..............50.00%.................- 4.00
03/08/2022............3-4-0..............42.85%.................- 7.00
03/07/2022............6-5-0..............54.54%................+ 2.50
03/06/2022............4-8-0..............33.33%................-24.00
03/05/2022............4-4-0..............50.00%.................- 3.00
03/04/2022............4-8-0..............33.33%................- 24.00
03/03/2022............5-3-0..............62.50%................+ 8.50
03/02/2022............7-3-0..............70.00%................+18.50
03/01/2022............3-2-0..............60.00%.................+ 4.00

TOTALS...........102-106-0..............49.03%................-24.50



UPDATED ON 03/20/2022
 

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Monday’s 6-pack

Over/under win totals for this baseball season:
65.5— Pirates
66.5— Diamondbacks
68.5— A’s
70.5— Rockies
71.5— Reds
72.5— Nationals

Quote of the Day
“Rule Number 1: Don’t sweat the small stuff.
Rule Number 2: It’s all small stuff.”
Robert Eliot

Monday’s quiz
When was the last time a Pac-12 team won the NCAA Tournament?

Sunday’s quiz
Eric Musselman was once head coach of both Golden State, Sacramento in the NBA.

Saturday’s quiz
Before the Kansas City Royals existed, the A’s called Kansas City home, from 1955-68.

********************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

13) Sports is big business, very big business, and business can be cold and calculating. The last few days have reinforced that.

Atlanta Braves won the World Series last year for first time since 1995; their best player was Freddie Freeman, who played in Atlanta for 11 years. Freeman seemed to love playing for the Braves, the Atlanta fans loved him, but they traded for Matt Olson, a younger/similar player who is from Georgia, and Freeman now plays for the Dodgers.

It is considered bad business to pay a fortune to ballplayers in their mid-30’s. Freeman will be 33 in September.

Los Angeles Rams just won the Super Bowl, their first since 1999, but since then, they cut their punter of ten years (Johnny Hekker), traded WR Robert Woods to Tennessee and lost couple more players to free agency (Darious Williams, Austin Corbett, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo).

NFL can be an even colder business because of the salary cap; to pay Matthew Stafford/Aaron Donald, financial corners have to be cut elsewhere.

12) First nine teams to make it into the Sweet 16 came from nine different conferences..

11) Miami 79, Auburn 61:
— Hurricanes outscored Auburn 46-29 in second half.
— Auburn star Smith shot 3-16 from the floor.
— Miami won nine of its last 12 games.

10) Villanova 71, Ohio State 61:
— Villanova won six in row, 11 of last 12 games.
— Ohio State lost five of its last seven games.
— Big East became first league with two teams in Sweet 16.

9) Houston 68, Illinois 53:
— Cougars coasted in two games this weekend, winning by 14-15 points.
— Last three tournaments, Houston is 8-2 SU.
— Illinois went 6-5 in its last 11 games, after a 17-5 start.

8) Texas Tech 59, Notre Dame 53:
— Tech outscored Notre Dame 10-1 over final 2:09 of the game.
— Last four years, Red Raiders are 11-3 in NCAA’s.
— Note Dame was 3-9 this season vs top 5-0 teams.

7) Purdue 81, Texas 71:
— Purdue was 33-46 on foul line, Texas 7-12.
— Boilers had 20-0 run in first half.
— Purdue is 26-0 when it scores 70+ points

6) Duke 85, Michigan State 76:
— Duke outscored Spartans 20-6 over final 5:10 of game.
— Michigan State made 11-22 on arc, still couldn’t cover.
— Last nine tournaments, Blue Devils are 6-3 ATS in second round.

5) Iowa State 54, Wisconsin 49:
— Teams combined to make 5-36 on the arc.
— Badgers scored four points in first 10:00 of second half.
— Cyclones allowed 54-49 points in two games this weekend.

4) Arizona 85, TCU 80, OT
— Arizona survives and advances…..barely.
— Mathurin/Koloko scored Arizona’s last 15 points.
— TCU played their asses off; they had 20 offensive rebounds.

3) Cleveland Browns added Jacoby Brissett as their backup QB, then traded Case Keenum to Buffalo for a 7th round pick.

I seriously hope Keenum writes a book someday; the stories he must have. Here is his career path, after being a big star in college for the Houston Cougars:
2013— Texans 0-8 as a starter
2014— Texans 2-0 as a starter
2015— St Louis Rams 3-2 as a starter
2016— Los Angeles Rams 4-5 as a starter
2017— Vikings 11-3 as a starter
2018— Broncos 6-10 as a starter
2019— Redskins 1-7 as a starter
2020— Browns- threw 10 passes in two games in relief
2021— Browns- 2-0 as a starter
2022— Buffalo fans hope he doesn’t start any games

2) One of the great parts of spring training baseball is listening to Dodger games, hearing Rick Monday broadcast. Monday played for the A’s when I started rooting for them in the 60’s; he was a very good player and he is terrific broadcaster— he has a great voice.

Sunday, he was telling stories about Ernie Banks, Joe DiMaggio; he said that he looked it up, and in his 19-year career, he faced 502 different pitchers.

1) Red Sox signed Trevor Story to a six-year, $140M contract; word is that Story will play second base in Boston, with Xander Bogaerts staying at shortstop.
 

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DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in March games in the current season.

LA LAKERS are 864-976 ATS (-209.6 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=108 points/game since 1996.

MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread in the current season.

BROOKLYN is 31-47 ATS (-20.7 Units) in home games as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.

CHICAGO is 12-1 ATS (10.9 Units) in home games after a non-conference game in the current season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after a combined score of 185 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

WASHINGTON is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% in the current season.

MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in March games in the current season.
 

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Monday, March 21


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Orleans @ Charlotte
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
Charlotte
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

LA Lakers @ Cleveland
LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Lakers's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
LA Lakers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games

Portland @ Detroit
Portland
Portland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Detroit is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Miami @ Philadelphia
Miami
Miami is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Miami

Utah @ Brooklyn
Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
Utah is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Brooklyn
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Brooklyn's last 19 games

Toronto @ Chicago
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games at home

Washington @ Houston
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Washington's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Houston
Houston is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Washington
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

Boston @ Oklahoma City
Boston
Boston is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Boston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oklahoma City's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston

Minnesota @ Dallas
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota


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The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last nine Jazz' games.
The Nets are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
The Jazz are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven Nets' games.


The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five matchups between Miami and Philadelphia.
The total has gone UNDER in five of the last eight Heat' games.
The Sixers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven matchups against Miami.
 

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Armadillo Sports

Tuesday’s 6-pack

Over/under win totals for baseball season:
86.5— Phillies,
84.5— Red Sox, Giants
83.5— Angels, Giants
81— Twins
78.5— Tigers
75.5— Cubs

Quote of the Day
“Success is getting what you want. Happiness is wanting what you get.”
WP Kinsella

Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Matt Ryan play his college football?

Monday’s quiz
Last time a Pac-12 team won the NCAA Tournament was 1997, when Arizona won.

Sunday’s quiz
Eric Musselman was once head coach of both Golden State, Sacramento in the NBA.

****************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) Saturday/Sunday was first time since 2000 that the #1-seeds went 0-4 ATS in the second round NCAA Tournament. 1988 is only time the #1-seeds went 4-0 ATS in second round, but this week, Arizona/Gonzaga had fights on their hands, and Baylor lost straight up.

12) Miami-Iowa State is the 4th-ever NCAA tourney game between #10/#11 seeds. Here are the first three:
2011— 11-seed VCU (+4.5) 72-71 OT over Florida State
2014— 11-seed Dayton (+3.5) 82-72 over Syracuse
2016— 10-seed Syracuse (+4) 63-60 over Gonzaga

11) Underdogs are 27-21 ATS so far in NCAA Tournament; 12 teams lost but covered.

10) Texas Tech coach Mark Adams banked a $50,000 bonus for getting the Red Raiders into the Sweet 16; Adams has already cashed $125,000 in bonuses this season.

9) How good was the Big X this season?
— Iowa State finished T7th; they’re in the Sweet 16
— TCU finished T5th; they damn near beat Gonzaga in the second round.

8) Coaching carousel:
— LSU is hiring Murray State’s Matt McMahon as its new coach.
— Maryland is hiring Seton Hall’s Kevin Willard as its new coach.
— LaSalle fired coach Ashley Howard; Explorers haven’t been in NCAA Tournament since 2013.

Good/bad news on Willard:
— Last seven years, Seton Hall was 75-53 in Big East games
— Willard is 1-5 in NCAA Tournament games; he was the higher seed in four of those six games.

7) HBO’s series Winning Time is about the Lakers before/during the Magic Johnson era; this week’s episode revolved around Dr Jerry Buss trying to hire UNLV coach Jerry Tarkanian as the Lakers’ new coach. This was 11 years before UNLV won their national title, two years after UNLV made the Final Four for the first time under Tarkanian.

Dr Buss meets with Tark in a Las Vegas restaurant; Tark’s friend/lawyer Vic Weiss is there, trying to broker the deal. Buss thinks they have a deal for Tark to coach the Lakers, but at one point, the waiter brings over a bottle of champagne, a gift from a table of four guys who look a lot like mobsters. Negotiations went downhill from there.

Day or two later, Vic Weiss shows up dead in the trunk of a car; it is unclear exactly how much is true/embellished; the HBO show inferred that the Tarkanian hiring had something to do with Weiss’ murder, but surfing the Interweb, apparent Weiss owed the wrong people a lot of money, never a good thing, and that is why he was killed.

Anyway, the program is entertaining, sometimes eye-opening.

6) Boston Celtics are 22-14 vs teams over .500, 22-14 vs teams under .500.

5) What is a Billiken? According to the Saint Louis University website, the billiken is a mythical good-luck figure who represents “things as they ought to be.”

4) Last year, Giants’ OF Joc Pederson played with Atlanta; he became just 9th player ever to win a World Series ring two years in row, while playing for two different teams.

3) NFL stuff:
— Atlanta Falcons traded QB Matt Ryan to the Colts for a 3rd-round draft pick.
— Falcons then signed QB Marcus Mariota, who worked with coach Arthur Smith when the two were together in Tennessee.

2) These NFL teams will have new starting QB’s this coming season:
— Washington Commanders— Carson Wentz takes over for Taylor Heinicke
— Atlanta Falcons— Marcus Mariota in for Matt Ryan
— Pittsburgh Steelers— Mitch Trubisky for Ben Roethlisberger
— Cleveland Browns— Deshaun Watson for Baker Mayfield
— Indianapolis Colts— Matt Ryan for Carson Wentz
— Denver Broncos— Russell Wilson for Teddy Bridgewater
— Seattle Seahawks— ??????? for Russell Wilson

1) Colorado Rockies signed IF Ryan McMahon to a six-year, $70M extension; all of a sudden, Rockies are spending money. Too bad they didn’t pay Story/Arenado when they had the chance.
 

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ORLANDO is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus teams who attempt 39 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

DENVER is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs in the last 3 seasons.




NBA

Tuesday, March 22


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Trend Report
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Golden State @ Orlando
Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Orlando's last 13 games when playing at home against Golden State
Orlando is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Golden State

Atlanta @ New York
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
New York
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
New York is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games

Chicago @ Milwaukee
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Milwaukee is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing Chicago

LA Clippers @ Denver
LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Clippers's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home


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The Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.
The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
The total has gone UNDER in six of the last eight Hawks' games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of the last six Knicks' games.
The Hawks are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 matchups against New York.
The total has gone UNDER in six of the last eight matchups between Atlanta and New York.


The Bulls are 3-5 ATS in their last eight matchups against Milwaukee.
The Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
The total has gone UNDER in five of the last six matchups between Chicago and Milwaukee.
The total has gone OVER in 13 of the last 18 Bucks' games.


The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five Clippers' games.
The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
The Clippers are 4-2 ATS in their last six matchups against Denver.
The total has gone OVER in four of the last five Nuggets' games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five matchups between the Clippers and Nuggets.
 

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MARCH BEST BETS & OPINIONS

Date .......................W-L-T.....................%...................Units

03/22/2022...........5-3-0..........62.50%..................+8.50
03/20/2022.........3-15-0..........16.67%..................-67.50
03/19/2022..........5-3-0...........62.50%..................+8.50
03/18/2022.......12-12-0...........50.00%..................- 6.00
03/17/2022...........2-0-0.........100.00%.................+10.00
03/16/2022........12-12-0..........50.00%...................-6.00
03/15/2022...........2-6-0...........25.00%..................-23.00
03/14/2022.........12-5-1............69.44%................+32.50
03/13/2022.........11-3-0...........78.57%.................+38.50
03/12/2022...........7-7-0...........50.00%...................-3.50
03/11/2022.........9-11-0............45.00%.................-15.50
03/10/2022...........3-1-0............75.00%..................+9.50
03/09/2022.......11-12-1.............47.82%.................-11.00
03/08/2022...........3-8-1.............29.17%.................-29.00
03/07/2022.........10-6-0.............62.50%................+17.00
03/06/2022...........6-9-0.............40.00%.................-19.50
03/05/2022...........6-6-0.............50.00%...................-3.00
03/04/2022.........6-10-0.............37.50%..................-25.00
03/03/2022...........7-7-0.............50.00%....................-3.50
03/02/2022.........10-5-1..............65.63%................+22.50
03/01/2022...........5-6-0..............45.45%...................-8.00

TOTALS..........147-147-4.............50.00%...................-73.50
.


BEST BETS:

03/22/2022............4-3-0..............57.14%............+ 3.50
03/20/2022..........3-19-0..............23.07%.............- 40.00
03/19/2022............4-2-0..............66.66%.............+ 9.00
03/18/2022............9-7-0..............56.25%.............+ 6.50
03/17/2022............2-0-0............100.00%.............+10.00
03/16/2022............8-8-0..............50.00%...............- 4.00
03/15/2022............2-6-0..............25.00%...............-23.00
03/14/2022............8-4-1..............66.66%..............+18.00
03/13/2022............9-2-0..............81.81%..............+34.00
03/12/2022............4-4-0..............50.00%%..............-2.00
03/11/2022............6-8-0..............42.85%...............- 14.00
03/10/2022............3-1-0..............75.00%.................+9.50
03/09/2022............8-8-0..............50.00%.................- 4.00
03/08/2022............3-4-0..............42.85%.................- 7.00
03/07/2022............6-5-0..............54.54%................+ 2.50
03/06/2022............4-8-0..............33.33%................-24.00
03/05/2022............4-4-0..............50.00%.................- 3.00
03/04/2022............4-8-0..............33.33%................- 24.00
03/03/2022............5-3-0..............62.50%................+ 8.50
03/02/2022............7-3-0..............70.00%................+18.50
03/01/2022............3-2-0..............60.00%.................+ 4.00

TOTALS...........106-109-0..............49.30%.................- 21.00



UPDATED ON 03/22/2022
 

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Armadillo Sports

Wednesday’s 6-pack

Odds to win the NBA championship:
4-1— Phoenix Suns
11-2— Golden State, Brooklyn
6-1— Milwaukee
13-2— Philadelphia
10-1— Miami
18-1— Utah, Boston

Quote of the Day
“Success is found in the mud. And the only way to effect positive change is to get your hands dirty.”
Cooper Kupp

Wednesday’s quiz
Where did Trae Young play his college basketball?

Tuesday’s quiz
Matt Ryan played his college football at Boston College.

Monday’s quiz
Last time a Pac-12 team won the NCAA Tournament was 1997, when Arizona won.

************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..

13) You’ll have to excuse me if there are mistakes in this article today; left my house at 3:15am Tuesday, got to my hotel room in Las Vegas 13 hours later. Long day; I don’t enjoy flying much anymore, but Southwest does provide free movies on their Wi-Fi, so that helped some. For some reason, can’t sleep on planes.

First vacation in 29 months; good to get closer to normal.

12) By the way, my hotel room has Pac-12 Network, which is only time I ever see it, since DirecTV does not have it. 13 different home shopping channels, no Pac-12 Network. Terrific.

11) St Bonaventure 52, Virginia 51— Bonnies played four senior starters 40:00 each; one guy got in foul trouble and only played 28:00. What the hell are they going to do for players next year?

Why has no school hired Mark Schmidt as their coach? Six SEC teams changed coaches already this spring, and Schmidt still lives in Olean, where he is 268-172 in 15 years. The last eight years, Bonnies are 95-45 in league games. Pretty damn good.

Go get a map, find Olean, NY; draw a 100-mile circle around Olean, and see how many big cities you find. 74 miles from Buffalo, 116 from Rochester. Not exactly basketball hotbeds. What Schmidt has done with the Bonnies is remarkable.

10) Was surprised to hear that this is the last year the NIT Final Four will be in New York City; there was a time, back before even I was born, where the NIT was bigger than the NCAA’s. In 1950, City College of New York won both tournaments, and the NIT was the bigger deal.

9) Speaking of the coaching carousel:
— South Carolina hired Chattanooga coach Paris LaMont.
— Louisiana Tech coach Eric Konkol bolts to Tulsa.
— SMU coach Tim Jankovich retired; he was 24-9 this year, doubtful he got fired, but they also haven’t made the NCAA’s the last five years. Wealthy boosters tend to be impatient.

8) CBI tournament, where the final is 2:00 Wednesday afternoon:
— NC-Wilmington 80, Northern Colorado 64— Seahawks are 26-9, 18-4 in games decided by 7 or less less points. Before this season, UNCW had four losing years in a row.
— Middle Tennessee 85, Abilene Christian 69— Quick turnaround for the winners; MTSU is playing third day in row Wednesday, day game after a night game.

7) Does playing in the NIT, CBI help a team going forward? Getting on ESPN has to help some, but seems that teams like St Bonaventure, a very experienced team that fell just short in their conference, often do well in NIT/CBI-type events, then they almost have to regress the next season, since they’ll have whole new rosters.

6) We talked some about Dodger announcer Rick Monday last week; he was also a pretty good outfielder. Reader Glenn points out that Monday hit 11 home runs off of Hall of Fame hurler Tom Seaver, more than any other player. Impressive.

5) Major League Baseball announced some rule changes Tuesday:
— Rosters will be 28 guys until May 1st.
— Extra innings will start with a runner on second base.
— If your DH is also the starting pitcher, he can stay as the DH after he is done pitching, which is obviously called the Ohtani Rule.

4) Detroit Pistons lost 119-115 to Portland Monday, ending a 12-0-1 run ATS; they’ve lost six of last seven games SU, but have been keeping games closer lately.

3) 31 baseball players wound up heading to contract arbitration; all of those cases will be heard after the season starts, which shouldn’t cause too much of a problem, should it? (joke). Six of the 31 players play for the Mets.

2) If the NBA playoffs started today (they do not) the play-in games would be:
— East: Atlanta @ Toronto, Charlotte @ Brooklyn
— West: New Orleans @ Minnesota, Lakers @ Clippers

1) Was sitting in the Aria Sportsbook Tuesday night, reading the baseball over/unders, and odds to win it all; good Lord, the A’s are 80-1 to win the World Series. Who in their right mind would wager on the A’s to win the World Series? I have a better chance of dating Sharon Stone than the A’s do of being a contender this season.
 

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ATLANTA is 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.

INDIANA is 8-27 ATS (-21.7 Units) in home games in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

GOLDEN STATE is 23-10 ATS (12 Units) off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite since 1996.

BROOKLYN is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite in the current season.

BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game in the current season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season in the current season.

MINNESOTA is 11-0 ATS (11 Units) in home games when the total >=230 in the current season.

DALLAS are 66-44 ATS (17.6 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread in the last 3 seasons.

LA LAKERS are 229-274 ATS (-72.4 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=108 points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
 

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