Saturday's Best Bet
July 20, 2018
Saturday Week 6 CFL Betting Preview
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Toronto Argonauts
Week 6 of the CFL concludes with a double-header on Saturday and with no line out on the latter half of that in the Montreal/Calgary game because of QB injuries, many bettors have been focused on the Winnipeg/Toronto game that starts the proceedings.
Winnipeg has been receiving plenty of support all week as this line has been bumped up from a pick'em to -2.5, but is the line move correct and is it still worth a follow?
Winnipeg (-2.5); Total set at 52
This game is the first half of a home-and-home for these two teams over the next two weeks and for both sides it's the second consecutive home-and-home they've played. Toronto was able to get a split with Edmonton the last two weeks (2-0 ATS) while Winnipeg fell flat on their faces in the 2nd half against BC a week ago to split their set with the Lions too (1-1 ATS).
With nine teams in the entire league, you are often going to get quirky schedules like this and the downside to it all is that because they are quite rare, these games can be tough to handicap from a situational standpoint.
However, many handicappers don't seem to have a problem with backing Winnipeg this week as the line has been steadily climbing all week long. The Blue Bombers are the ones who come in with the better record (2-3 SU) and have looked like the better team for the majority of the season, but they are just 1-2 SU and ATS on the road this year and scored just 17 points in both defeats. Considering Toronto's defense has been one of the more stouter units in the league this year and are coming off back-to-back games of holding Edmonton's high-flying attack to 17 or fewer points, all the Winnipeg love ATS should be tempered a little bit. That's not to say I like Toronto plus the points, but at this point the side is not something I'm looking at in either direction.
The total of 52 has seen significant action as well after opening up at 51 as it appears as thouhg the majority of bettors believe we will see a bit of a shootout here. Considering Toronto is a perfect 4-0 to the 'under' this year that is a bit surprising, but the 'over' does make sense in conjunction with all the Winnipeg love, as bettors that love the Blue Bombers to go out and win this game expect that the most likely way that happens is in a higher scoring, 30-25 type contest. After all, both of Winnipeg's wins this year have seen them score 40+ points and if they can reach that mark this week, 'over' bets are likely going to cash.
Yet, I don't think we see that number even get a sniff this week as Toronto, at 1-3 SU, can't afford to fall even further behind in the standings and drop to 1-4. The Argos have to figure that with backup QB James Franklin making his third start, their chances of success in this game decrease the higher scoring the game becomes, and with a trip to Winnipeg ahead of them next week, maybe they don't fully expose all their cards here and play things closer to the vest.
Toronto's got one of the best all-purpose RB's in the CFL in James Wilder Jr and he's yet to really put his stamp on any one of the Argos games this year. Considering Wilder could be the guy that can continually move the chains, help control the clock and keep Winnipeg's offense off the field, I'd look for him to be featured early and often for Toronto, especially with the weather report calling for plenty of wind at BMO Field on Saturday. Wind is the biggest detriment to 'over' bets and with one end of that stadium largely exposed to strong wins being on Lake Ontario, the passing attacks of both teams could be in some trouble.
So I'm actually going to the low side of this total as I think this game could see plenty of running the ball which in the CFL means a lot of three-and-outs and a more field possession type contest. Both defenses can step up and plug holes if that's the case, and with Toronto cashing 'under' tickets at a perfect clip so far in 2018, I wouldn't say this week is the best time to buck that trend.
Next week in the return match in Winnipeg is probably the better 'over' option (depending on how this week goes), but with the 'under being the minority side this week and both teams looking to keep some tricks in the bag with a return meeting next week, don't be surprised to see this game finish in the mid-40's.
Best Bet: Under 52 points
July 20, 2018
Saturday Week 6 CFL Betting Preview
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Toronto Argonauts
Week 6 of the CFL concludes with a double-header on Saturday and with no line out on the latter half of that in the Montreal/Calgary game because of QB injuries, many bettors have been focused on the Winnipeg/Toronto game that starts the proceedings.
Winnipeg has been receiving plenty of support all week as this line has been bumped up from a pick'em to -2.5, but is the line move correct and is it still worth a follow?
Winnipeg (-2.5); Total set at 52
This game is the first half of a home-and-home for these two teams over the next two weeks and for both sides it's the second consecutive home-and-home they've played. Toronto was able to get a split with Edmonton the last two weeks (2-0 ATS) while Winnipeg fell flat on their faces in the 2nd half against BC a week ago to split their set with the Lions too (1-1 ATS).
With nine teams in the entire league, you are often going to get quirky schedules like this and the downside to it all is that because they are quite rare, these games can be tough to handicap from a situational standpoint.
However, many handicappers don't seem to have a problem with backing Winnipeg this week as the line has been steadily climbing all week long. The Blue Bombers are the ones who come in with the better record (2-3 SU) and have looked like the better team for the majority of the season, but they are just 1-2 SU and ATS on the road this year and scored just 17 points in both defeats. Considering Toronto's defense has been one of the more stouter units in the league this year and are coming off back-to-back games of holding Edmonton's high-flying attack to 17 or fewer points, all the Winnipeg love ATS should be tempered a little bit. That's not to say I like Toronto plus the points, but at this point the side is not something I'm looking at in either direction.
The total of 52 has seen significant action as well after opening up at 51 as it appears as thouhg the majority of bettors believe we will see a bit of a shootout here. Considering Toronto is a perfect 4-0 to the 'under' this year that is a bit surprising, but the 'over' does make sense in conjunction with all the Winnipeg love, as bettors that love the Blue Bombers to go out and win this game expect that the most likely way that happens is in a higher scoring, 30-25 type contest. After all, both of Winnipeg's wins this year have seen them score 40+ points and if they can reach that mark this week, 'over' bets are likely going to cash.
Yet, I don't think we see that number even get a sniff this week as Toronto, at 1-3 SU, can't afford to fall even further behind in the standings and drop to 1-4. The Argos have to figure that with backup QB James Franklin making his third start, their chances of success in this game decrease the higher scoring the game becomes, and with a trip to Winnipeg ahead of them next week, maybe they don't fully expose all their cards here and play things closer to the vest.
Toronto's got one of the best all-purpose RB's in the CFL in James Wilder Jr and he's yet to really put his stamp on any one of the Argos games this year. Considering Wilder could be the guy that can continually move the chains, help control the clock and keep Winnipeg's offense off the field, I'd look for him to be featured early and often for Toronto, especially with the weather report calling for plenty of wind at BMO Field on Saturday. Wind is the biggest detriment to 'over' bets and with one end of that stadium largely exposed to strong wins being on Lake Ontario, the passing attacks of both teams could be in some trouble.
So I'm actually going to the low side of this total as I think this game could see plenty of running the ball which in the CFL means a lot of three-and-outs and a more field possession type contest. Both defenses can step up and plug holes if that's the case, and with Toronto cashing 'under' tickets at a perfect clip so far in 2018, I wouldn't say this week is the best time to buck that trend.
Next week in the return match in Winnipeg is probably the better 'over' option (depending on how this week goes), but with the 'under being the minority side this week and both teams looking to keep some tricks in the bag with a return meeting next week, don't be surprised to see this game finish in the mid-40's.
Best Bet: Under 52 points
