Cnotes 2018 Canadian Football League Picks - News - Trends !

CNOTES · Jul 9, 2018

CFL Betting Recap - Week 4
July 9, 2018

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 4
-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 4
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 4
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 4
-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 4

Analysis

Saskatchewan (2-2) has been a difficult club to figure out. They opened with a win against the defending champs, they dropped two in a row, including last week when they were favored by 10 1/2. This week, they were underdogs by six points at home to Hamilton (2-2) in a low-scoring affair. The 'under' has now connected in three of four games so far for the Roughriders.

Thursday's battle marked the ninth consecutive 300-yard passing performance for Ti-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli, so that's why QB Johnny Manziel remains nailed to the bench. The defense continues to get better for the boys from The Hammer, allowing 17.5 PPG over the past two games. The 'under' is 3-1 for the Cats to this point.

Ottawa (2-1) maintained their dominance against Montreal (1-3), winning 28-18 as the 'under' connected again. The RedBlacks have hit the under in each of the past two, while the under is 3-1 in four outings for the Alouettes. Offense has been a real chore for the Alouettes, as they have scored 18 or fewer points in three of their past four, averaging just 15.3 PPG.

Edmonton (2-2) was dumped 20-17 in Toronto (1-2), as the Esks continue to alternate wins and losses. They're also a dismal 1-3 ATS overall, and 0-2 ATS on the road. They'll get another crack at the Argos in Edmonton on Friday night.

The Argos picked up their first win of the season, as the bye seemed to do them some good. They were averaging just 13.0 PPG in their first two losses, but they hit 20 for the first time this season in the win. The defense was much improved against the Esks, too. They allowed 34.0 PPG in the first two outings, but the halved that in Week 4. The 'under' has hit in three straight to open the season.

Winnipeg (2-2) hammered the BC Lions (1-2), as the Blue Bombers have alternated wins and losses like the Eskimos. The Bombers are a respectable 3-1 ATS so far this season, including 2-0 ATS at home with the 'over' also 2-0 in their two games on home turf.

Team Betting Notes and A Look Ahead

-- Calgary (3-0) will look horns with the RedBlacks for the second time this season, this time in Canada's capital city. The RedBlacks will be looking to avenge a 24-14 loss in Calgary on June 28 as 7 1/2-point underdogs. The Stamps are 3-0 ATS with the under also 3-0. The Stamps are 9-3-2 ATS in their past 14 following a bye week.

-- Meanwhile, the RedBlacks are 4-0 ATS in their past four games in July, but just 2-5 ATS in the past seven after a straight-up victory. The 'over' is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings in Ottawa, while going 6-1-1 in the past eight in this series.

-- The Argos have posted a dismal 4-12 ATS mark across their past 16 road games, and for what it's worth, they're a dismal 1-10 ATS in their past 11 appearances on Friday. However, the Esks are 2-5 ATS in their past seven on Friday, so that doesn't really matter. The Esks are 3-8-2 ATS in the past 13 against teams with a losing record, too. The 'over' is 10-2 in the past 12 meetings, while going 5-0 in the past five meetings in Edmonton. Of course, last week was an 'under' result.

-- The Blue Bombers and Lions will square off for a second straight week, this time in Vancouver. Winnipeg won 41-19 last weekend in Manitoba. Winnipeg is 18-5 ATS in their past 23 road outings, while going 6-2 ATS in their past eight against teams with a losing record. They're also 12-4 ATS in the past 16 against Western Conference foes.

-- For the Lions, they're a poor 5-15-1 ATS in the past 21 meetings against Western Conference opponents. They're also 1-4 ATS in the past five home outings. The 'over' looks pretty attractive, going 18-7-2 in the past 27 against Western Conference foes for WPG, while going 13-4 in their past 17 road outings. The over is 4-0 in BC's past four against the West, while going 5-1 in their past six overall. That includes last week in Winnipeg. In fact, the over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings, and 4-0 in the past four meetings in BC.

-- Winnipeg is 4-0 ATS in their past four trips to Vancouver, while going 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 meetings overall in this series.

CNOTES · Jul 12, 2018

CFL Betting Notes - Week 5
David Schwab

Thursday, July 12

Calgary Stampeders (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -3
Point-spread: 54 ½

Game Overview

Calgary went into last week’s bye fresh off a 24-14 victory against Ottawa as a 7 ½-point home favorite in Week 3. It has now won each of its first three games by double figures while easily covering the spread. The total has stayed UNDER the closing line in all three contests. Bo Levi Mitchell is off to a solid start throwing the ball with 872 passing yards and six touchdown throws. Don Jackson has also done a good job on the ground with 294 yards rushing and two scores on 36 carries for an average of 8.2 yards a run.

The RedBlacks took the early lead in the East Division with last week’s victory against Montreal. After Trevor Harris was held to 135 yards passing in the loss to the Stampeders, he returned to form against the Alouettes with 342 yards through the air and three scoring strikes. Harris completed 66.7 percent of his 42 passing attempts in that game with Brad Sinpoli coming down with 11 receptions for 148 yards and one of those three touchdown throws. William Powell had another big game running the ball with 138 yards rushing on 23 carries.

Betting Trends

-- Calgary has gone 4-2-1 SU in its last seven games against the RedBlacks, but it falls to 2-4 ATS in its last six road games against Ottawa. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in Ottawa.

Friday, July 13

Toronto Argonauts (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Edmonton Eskimos (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -7
Point-spread: 54

Game Overview

Toronto comes into the back end of this home-and-home series with James Franklin as its starting quarterback. He made his first start of the season last week for the injured Ricky Ray and threw for 217 yards and a score while adding another touchdown on a run. Franklin ended the game with 31 yards on the ground on six rushing attempts. The Argonauts also got a strong effort from James Wilder Jr. running the ball with 120 yards and a score on 21 carries. Declan Cross caught the game winner in the fourth quarter to give Toronto the come-from-behind win.

Defense has been an issue for Edmonton in its 2-2 start. The Eskimos gave up 38 points in an early season loss to Hamilton and they could not hold onto the lead last Saturday in this home-and-home series opener. Mike Reilly was able to move the ball against Toronto almost at will with 370 yards passing, but it still only added up to 17 points on the board. He completed 70.0 percent of his 40 attempts with one touchdown throw and one interception. Edmonton was held to 56 yards rushing with CJ Gable gaining just 39 yards on 14 carries.

Betting Trends

-- The Eskimos have won four of the last six meetings SU and they have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven home games against Toronto. The total has gone OVER in the last five meetings in Edmonton.

Saturday, July 14

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at British Columbia Lions (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Point-spread: OFF

Game Overview

Winnipeg gained the early edge in this home-and-home series with its play on both sides of the ball. Andrew Harris rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown on nine carries and Adam Bighill posted a pair of interceptions on defense including one that was returned 55-yards for a touchdown. Leading 28-10 at the half, the Blue Bombers cruised to the lopsided win. Matt Nichols saw his first action of the season coming off a knee injury and the rust was evident with a 55.2 completion percentage on 29 passing attempts for 162 yards and a score.

The Lions have gotten doubled up in their last two games by a combined score of 82-41. Both losses came on the road following a 22-10 victory at home against Montreal as 8 ½-point favorites in Week 1. Jonathan Jennings ended last Saturday’s game with 105 yards passing plus those two picks with zero touchdown throws. Cody Fajardo added a third interception while completing five of six attempts for 68 yards. Jeremiah Johnson had a decent day running the ball with 80 rushing yards on 13 attempts.

Betting Trends

-- Winnipeg has won six of the last nine meetings SU while covering ATS in eight of those games. It has a 6-1 edge ATS in its last seven road games against the Lions and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in BC.

CNOTES · Jul 12, 2018

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, July 12

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CALGARY (3 - 0) at OTTAWA (2 - 1) - 7/12/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1996.
OTTAWA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 3-3 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-1 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, July 13

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TORONTO (1 - 2) at EDMONTON (2 - 2) - 7/13/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, July 14

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WINNIPEG (2 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 2) - 7/14/2018, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 6-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 4-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, July 12

Calgary Stampeders
Calgary is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Calgary's last 8 games
Calgary is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Calgary is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Calgary's last 8 games when playing Ottawa
Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Calgary is 1-5-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Ottawa RedBlacks
Ottawa is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games
Ottawa is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Ottawa's last 12 games
Ottawa is 1-4-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Ottawa's last 8 games when playing Calgary
Ottawa is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary

Friday, July 13

Toronto Argonauts
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Toronto is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Edmonton is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games
Edmonton is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games at home
Edmonton is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 9 games at home
Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Edmonton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Edmonton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

Saturday, July 14

Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Winnipeg is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Winnipeg is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Winnipeg's last 18 games on the road
Winnipeg is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing British Columbia
Winnipeg is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing British Columbia
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 8 games when playing British Columbia
Winnipeg is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Winnipeg is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Winnipeg's last 16 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
British Columbia Lions
British Columbia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
British Columbia is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of British Columbia's last 6 games
British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games at home
British Columbia is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Winnipeg
British Columbia is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 7 of British Columbia's last 8 games when playing Winnipeg
British Columbia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
British Columbia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of British Columbia's last 16 games when playing at home against Winnipeg

CNOTES · Jul 12, 2018

B]CFL Week 5

Calgary (3-0) (-3.5, 55) @ Ottawa (2-1)—[/B] Stampeders (-7.5) beat Ottawa 24-14 at home two weeks ago, then had their bye last week; home teams are 6-0-2 in last eight series games, with four of those going to OT- Stamps are 0-2-2 in last four visits here. Calgary won its first three games this year, all by 10+ points- they won their only road game, 41-7 at Toronto. Ottawa averaged nine yards per rush but completed only 50% of their passes in that loss two weeks ago; RedBlacks won their only home games 40—17 vs Saskatchewan, then split pair of road games. Over is 6-1-1 in last eight series games.

Toronto (1-2) @ Edmonton (2-2) (-9, 53.5)— Home side won eight of last nine series games; Eskimos (-3) lost 20-17 in Toronto last week, with Argos scoring GW TD with 3:12 left. Eskimos gained 426 yards but scored only 17 points. Argonauts lost their last four visits to Edmonton (1-3 vs spread). Toronto had scored total of 26 points in losing its first two games before winning LW; Argos lost 27-19 in Regina in their one road game so far. Under is 3-0 in Toronto games, 3-1 in Edmonton games. Eskimos scored 33-41 points in their wins, 21-17 in their losses- they split their first two home games, losing to Hamilton, beating BC.

Winnipeg (2-2) @ BC Lions (1-2)— Winnipeg covered eight of last nine series games. Blue Bombers waxed BC 41-19 last week, racing out to 28-10 halftime lead. Lions threw three INT’s, were -3 in turnovers, and were outgained 359-280. Home side won four of last five series games; Bombers lost their last two visits here, by total of four points. Over is 3-1 in Bomber games this year; they scored 56-41 points in their two wins, 30-17 in their losses. Winnipeg split its first two road games. Home side won Lions’ first three games this year; they beat Montreal 22-10 in their home opener. Over is 2-1 in BC games this year.

CNOTES · Jul 12, 2018

CFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Thursday, July 12

Calgary @ Ottawa

Game 361-362
July 12, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Calgary
123.821
Ottawa
115.752
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 8
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 3 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-3 1/2); Under

Friday, July 13

Toronto @ Edmonton

Game 363-364
July 13, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
106.255
Edmonton
117.119
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 11
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 9
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(-9); Under

Saturday, July 14

Winnipeg @ BC Lions

Game 365-266
July 14, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
110.760
BC Lions
109.472
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 1 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
N/A

CNOTES · Jul 12, 2018

PREVIEW

REDBLACKS, STAMPS KICK OFF WEEK 5 ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

OTTAWA — It seems like every time they meet up, the Calgary Stampeders and Ottawa REDBLACKS put on a show.

Whether it was the 104th Grey Cup in Toronto two years ago, or a pair of regular-season ties — one in each of 2016 and 2017 — there is something in Calgary that brings out the best in Ottawa.

That is, except for their meeting two weeks ago; the REDBLACKS offence sputtered at McMahon Stadium, and the Stamps did just enough to ensure a 24-14 victory.

CFL.ca has unprecedented coverage of Thursday Night Football presented by the Brick, including a 30-minute live show CFL Game Time at 6:30 p.m. ET, as the REDBLACKS host the Stamps at TD Place.

The two teams — currently leading their respective divisions at 3-0 (Calgary) and 2-1 (Ottawa) — will meet again this Thursday in the nation’s capital on Thursday Night Football.

“We know they’re gonna have some wrinkles for us,” REDBLACKS head coach Rick Campbell told OttawaREDBLACKS.com. “We’ll have the same for them. (This week)’s pretty fresh for us, because we played another game. We shifted to Montreal, and now we’re back to Calgary. They haven’t played.”

It’s full steam ahead for the REDBLACKS following their 28-18 win in Montreal last week.

All systems were go for Ottawa last Friday; Trevor Harris threw for 349 yards and a trio of touchdowns, while league-leading running back William Powell sprinted to 138 yards.

This week, play calls will have to be adjusted to compensate for the fact they’re facing the same Calgary team from two weeks ago.

“The different thing about the CFL is it’s a smaller league, so you’re going to play everybody twice, or three times. Everybody gets to know each other,” explained Campbell. “So sometimes, you have to change a couple calls up or just have some wrinkles in the game plan. That’s part of the strategy.”

The REDBLACKS defence will receive an added boost to its second level this week, as veteran linebacker Kyries Hebert returns from suspension; the 37-year-old received a one-game ban following a high hit on Calgary’s DaVaris Daniels the last time these two teams met.

On the offensive line, Jason Lauzon-Seguin will continue to work his way back into the rotation following an injury; the third-year lineman out of Laval will back up Evan Johnson at right tackle against Calgary.

“It was fast, but it was a good (chance) to test out the body, see if everything was strong,” said Lauzon-Seguin. “It felt good to be back on the team and be with the boys on the road.”

As for the challenge posed by Calgary’s talented front seven, the 2016 Frank M. Gibson Trophy — East Division’s Most Oustanding Rookie — winner understands what the Stamps bring.

“They move a lot on D (with) the second level defenders — (Alex) Singleton is a very good tackler and player, and they bring a lot of safety blitz, stuff like that,” said Lauzon-Seguin. “We have to look at that and make adjustments (based) on what they show us.”

The REDBLACKS will have to take the opportunities given to them by Calgary’s strong-tackling defence.

“It was a struggle last game for us. It always is, they just know what they’re doing,” explained Ottawa receiver Brad Sinopoli. “They show a lot of different looks, they try not to give anything up deep. They try to just let you throw shallow stuff, and rally and make the tackle, and they’re really good at making the tackle.”

Of course, nothing ever comes easy against Dave Dickenson’s Stampeders.

At 3-0 on the season and 31-6-2 in the regular season since 2016, Calgary is quite simply the best team, year-over-year, in the Canadian Football League.

The Stamps are also aware, however, that Ottawa tends to give them a stiff challenge.

“We expect the same thing we got last time. It’s going to be a dog fight,” receiver DaVaris Daniels told Stampeders.com. “It’s not going to be high-scoring or anything. I’m sure they don’t want to lose to us twice, so we’ve got a challenge on our hands and we’ll be ready for it.”

Calgary will want to establish the run early against the REDBLACKS; breakout running back Don Jackson is third in the league in rush yards (294), while the team as a whole is averaging over 140 rush yards per-game.

“It’s the identity of Calgary Stampeder football,” said O-lineman Derek Dennis. “It’s always been a very run-first team and we pride ourselves on being a balanced offence. I think right now, for our offensive unit, at least, for the offensive line, the biggest thing that’s helping us be successful is the attitude that we have as a group.”

Slotback Kamar Jorden has been one of the Stamps’ premier receiving threats through three games; the Bowling Green product has caught a team-high 14 passes for 192 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

He also believes the bye will help his ball club.

“We’ve had a couple days to get back into the rhythm and a couple days for us to get ready for them,” explained Jorden. ” I think that’s an advantage for us, but at the end of the day, we still have to handle business when we get on the field.

“I feel like I’ll take my guys versus their guys anytime.”

The Stamps will have some holes to fill this week, with receiver Eric Rogers and return specialist Terry Williams both moving to the one-game injured list. However, Calgary will also get a boost from the return of Cordarro Law at D-end and Justin Renfrow on the offensive line.

The absence of Williams will hand rookie Romar Morris, a spark plug out of UNC, his CFL debut behind Don Jackson on the depth chart at RB. The 25-year-old Tar Heel alum is a quick runner capable of returning kicks, and previously spent time with the New York Jets.

Crunchin’ Numbers:

1-6-2 – Rick Campbell and the REDBLACKS’ regular-season record (.222) against Calgary since joining the league in 2014; on the flip side, Dave Dickenson is 3-0-2 against Ottawa as a head coach.

59 – Career wins for Bo Levi Mitchell, who could become the fastest player in league history to the 60-win mark with a victory Thursday in Ottawa — his 71st start. The current record holder is Ken Ploen, who picked up his 60th win in start no. 78 on Sept. 28, 1963.

300-plus – Ottawa quarterback Trevor Harris has thrown for 300-plus yards 21 times in 45 career starts. That 46.7 per cent mark is the second-highest in league history, behind only Doug Flutie (58.7).

So, to recap: The Stampeders and REDBLACKS sit atop their respective divisions, have elite talent on both sides of the ball and typically play one-score ball games.

Ottawa will be eager to try and solve the Calgary defence which shut it down two weeks ago, while Bo Levi and the Stamps offence will be similarly hungry to try and hang a 40-spot on the REDBLACKS.

Ottawa. Calgary.

Live on Thursday Night Football from TD Place.

Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on TSN, RDS and ESPN+

CNOTES · Jul 12, 2018

THURSDAY, JULY 12
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CGY at OTT 07:30 PM

OTT +3.0

U 54.0

CNOTES · Jul 12, 2018

GAME RECAP

STAMPS DEFENCE SHINES IN 27-3 WIN OVER REDBLACKS

OTTAWA — The Calgary Stampeders stormed into the nation’s capital and ran out of town with a well-earned 27-3 win over the hometown Ottawa REDBLACKS on Week 5’s edition of Thursday Night Football.

Bo Levi Mitchell left the contest in the second quarter, but not before helping stake the Stamps to a 17-0 lead with a 16-for-21, 161-yard performance that included a touchdown. Running back Don Jackson ground his way to a tough 102 rush yards, and the Calgary defence held Ottawa to an eye-popping 27 yards and one solitary first down in the first half.

The second half passed without incident — the REDBLACKS incapable of moving the chains, backup Nick Arbuckle managing the game for Calgary — and the Stamps left Ottawa with their perfect record intact.

Calgary opened the scoring midway through the first quarter, as a 38-yard Mitchell completion to Kamar Jorden set up a one-yard touchdown plunge for rookie Romar Morris — his first career touchdown coming in his CFL debut. Mitchell then found DaVaris Daniels on the two-point convert to give Calgary an 8-0 lead.

Coordinator DeVone Claybrooks’s defence then shut the door on the REDBLACKS, limiting its hosts to just 13 net yards in the first quarter.

Momentum swung further in the Stamps’ direction on Ottawa’s second possession of the second quarter; a Trevor Harris pass intended for Diontae Spencer was deflected by Brandon Smith, then tipped by Alex Singleton into the waiting arms of Tre Roberson.

Five plays later, Mitchell found Juwan Brescacin for a 10-yard touchdown; Morris’s plunging two-point convert attempt came up short and the lead stood at 14-0.

Harris’s tough day continued on the very next possession, as he was sacked heavily by Micah Johnson on first down before tossing a fluttering interception to Emmanuel Davis on second.

That pick resulted in a 17-yard chip shot of a field goal from Rene Paredes, and Calgary took a 17-0 lead.

Mitchell suffered an injury later in the second quarter, when he took a dangerous low tackle from Ottawa’s Danny Mason — the perpetrator received a 15-yard roughing the passer penalty, while Mitchell was hustled to the locker room and shut down for the night.

The REDBLACKS defence then forced a Calgary punt, only to have return man Diontae Spencer fumble it. The Stamps recovered on Ottawa’s 23-yard line, and two plays later a 25-yard boot from Paredes sent Calgary to the locker room with a 20-0 lead.

Ottawa’s offence showed some life on the opening drive of the second half, with Harris and co. driving down into the red zone only to stall on three tries from inside the 10-yard line; an 11-yard Lewis Ward field goal got the REDBLACKS on the board, but drew prolonged boos from the peanut gallery at TD Place.

The rest of the third quarter passed without incident, and a 12-yard touchdown connection from Arbuckle to Lemar Durant early in the fourth quarter sealed the win for the visitors; Paredes’s convert kick extended the lead to 27-3.

A fumble by Harris’s replacement under centre for Ottawa — Dominique Davis — set the Stamps up with great field position, but Paredes clanked his 15-yard effort off the upright resulting in a dead ball.

The win moved Calgary to 4-0 on the season, taking them four points clear atop the West Division; Dave Dickenson’s team will return home to face the Montreal Alouettes (1-3) next Saturday (9 p.m. ET).

Claybrooks’s defence was straight-up dominant, limiting Ottawa to 169 total yards.

Ottawa’s record dropped to 2-2, and the team will have to find answers offensively ahead of a visit from the BC Lions on Friday Night Football (7:30 p.m. ET) next week.

CNOTES · Jul 12, 2018

Friday, July 13, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
9:00 PM Toronto Argonauts Edmonton Eskimos

Saturday, July 14, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
10:00 PM Winnipeg Blue Bombers British Columbia Lions

********************

June's Canadian Football Record; ( All Picks )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

Totals.......... 12-10-0........54.54%.....+5.00

CFL Best Bets:

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

DATE.........................ATS.................. .....UNITS.....................O/U...................UNITS...........TOTAL

Totals.......................7 - 4.....................+13.00.................... 5 - 6..................-7.00............+5.00

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July's Canadian Football Record; ( All Picks )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

07/12/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
07/07/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
07/06/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
07/05/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals...............5-5...........50.00%....-2.50

CFL Best Bets:

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

DATE.........................ATS.................. .....UNITS.....................O/U...................UNITS...........TOTAL

07/12/2018..............0 - 1........................-5.50.....................1 - 0...................+5.00............-0.50
07/07/2018..............2 - 0.......................+10.00...................0 - 2...................-11.00............-1.00
07/06/2018..............0 - 1........................-5.50.....................1 - 0...................+5.00.............-0.50
07/05/2018..............0 - 1........................-5.50.....................1 - 0...................+5.00.............-0.50

Totals......................2 - 3........................-6.50.....................3 - 2....................+4.00..............-2.50

CNOTES · Jul 13, 2018

Friday’s 6-pack

— Seattle ace James Paxton (back) left Thursday’s game in the first inning.

— Boston 6, Toronto 4— Red Sox won their 10th game in a row.

— G Isaiah Thomas signed a veteran’s minimum deal with the Denver Nuggets.

— Wayne Ellington agreed to a one-year, $6.2M deal to return to the Miami Heat.

— Phil Hellmuth won a record 15th World Series of Poker gold bracelet, taking the $5,000 No-Limit Hold’ em event.

— There was an argument on Twitter today about whether coleslaw is tasty or not; it was more fun than people arguing about politics.

Quote of the Day
“I think the game has progressively gotten a little softer. Man, it had some teeth not that long ago.”
Mike Matheny

Friday’s quiz
Who managed the Phillies when they won the 2008 World Series?

Thursday’s quiz
Brent Barry is the only person in NBA history to lead the league in 2-point FG% one year and 3-point %age in another year.

Wednesday’s quiz
Carlton Fisk (43) is the oldest player to get a hit in an All-Star Game.

***********************************

Friday’s List of 13: Happy Friday the 13th, everyone!!!

13) Oakland A’s are 19-5 in their last 24 games, going 5-2 on this Cleveland/Houston road trip that just ended- they’re a contender for the Wild Card right now. A’s next six games are a pair of three-game series with their cross-bay rivals, the Giants. Interesting times.

12) Former NBA star Charles Oakley was arrested Sunday by the Nevada Gaming Control Board Enforcement Agents at the Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas.

TMZ reported that he is suspected of pulling back a $100 chip after he realized he was going to lose his wager; that is a Class B felony. Not good.

11) Milwaukee’s Jesus Aguilar, Seattle’s Juan Segura won the Final Vote and will be in Washington for next week’s All-Star Game.

Milwaukee is the smallest market in the major leagues; good for their fans for voting one of their guys into the Mid-Summer Classic.

10) Will Yoenis Cespedes return to the Mets as a first baseman? There are reports on the Interweb that Cespedes has suggested the position change to Mets brass.

Cespedes hasn’t played since May 13, by the way. People have come back from broken legs faster than this guy, and I’m not a Met fan nor is he on my fantasy team.

9) Mets have had nine games this season that were 0-0 after five innings; five of the nine were Jacob deGrom starts.

8) There are rumors the Manny Machado trade may be delayed util after the All-Star Game because Orioles’ brass doesn’t want Machado playing in the All-Star Game in Washington next week wearing another team’s uniform, which would also leave the Orioles without an All-Star.

7) Baseball oddity: Babe Ruth started his career as a pitcher for the Red Sox; the night he got his first win as a pitcher, he was actually pinch-hit for in the 7th inning.

Wonder how many times he was pinch-hit for in his entire career?

6) Arizona OF Daniel Descalso pitched in the 4th inning Wednesday night in Denver, the earliest any position player has pitched in a game since the Brewers’ Sal Bando on August 29, 1979 (also the 4th inning).

Descalso allowed a HR to Rockies pitcher German Marquez. It’s just the 2nd time in the last 50 years that a pitcher homered off a position player.

The other: June 23, 1986 – Giants’ Mike LaCoss homered off San Diego’s Dane Iorg.

5) Alex Bregman is only American Leaguer in Home Run Derby Monday night; unusual. MLB cannot be very happy that Trout, Judge, Stanton, Goldschmidt are not participating.

4) There’s a sportsbook opening Saturday at Meadowlands Racetrack in New Jersey, next to Giants Stadium. Maybe the jackass politicians in New York can figure out a way to have legalized wagering in our state- why was New Jersey so far ahead of them????

3) Baseball doings:
— Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers goes on DL with left shoulder inflammation.
— Angels’ P Garrett Richards (elbow) hopes to return in 2020.
— Twins put 1B Logan Morrison (hip) on the DL

2) FOX is apparently in negotiations with Jeff Fisher to hire the former Titans/Rams coach as an NFL commentator. You never know how good guys will be behind the mike, but I’ll be curious to hear what he has to say.

1) Even a former White House stenographer named Beck Dorey-Stein has written a book about her time working in the White House. The current political climate has been good for bookstores, if not for the rest of us.

CNOTES · Jul 13, 2018

Friday, July 13

Toronto Argonauts (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Edmonton Eskimos (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -7
Point-spread: 54

Game Overview

Toronto comes into the back end of this home-and-home series with James Franklin as its starting quarterback. He made his first start of the season last week for the injured Ricky Ray and threw for 217 yards and a score while adding another touchdown on a run. Franklin ended the game with 31 yards on the ground on six rushing attempts. The Argonauts also got a strong effort from James Wilder Jr. running the ball with 120 yards and a score on 21 carries. Declan Cross caught the game winner in the fourth quarter to give Toronto the come-from-behind win.

Defense has been an issue for Edmonton in its 2-2 start. The Eskimos gave up 38 points in an early season loss to Hamilton and they could not hold onto the lead last Saturday in this home-and-home series opener. Mike Reilly was able to move the ball against Toronto almost at will with 370 yards passing, but it still only added up to 17 points on the board. He completed 70.0 percent of his 40 attempts with one touchdown throw and one interception. Edmonton was held to 56 yards rushing with CJ Gable gaining just 39 yards on 14 carries.

Betting Trends

-- The Eskimos have won four of the last six meetings SU and they have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven home games against Toronto. The total has gone OVER in the last five meetings in Edmonton.

CNOTES · Jul 13, 2018

Friday, July 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (1 - 2) at EDMONTON (2 - 2) - 7/13/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, July 13

Toronto Argonauts
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Toronto is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton

Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Edmonton is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games
Edmonton is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games at home
Edmonton is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 9 games at home
Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Edmonton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Edmonton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

**************************

Friday, July 13

Toronto @ Edmonton

Game 363-364
July 13, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
106.255
Edmonton
117.119
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 11
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 9
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(-9); Under

***************************

Toronto (1-2) @ Edmonton (2-2) (-9, 53.5)— Home side won eight of last nine series games; Eskimos (-3) lost 20-17 in Toronto last week, with Argos scoring GW TD with 3:12 left. Eskimos gained 426 yards but scored only 17 points. Argonauts lost their last four visits to Edmonton (1-3 vs spread). Toronto had scored total of 26 points in losing its first two games before winning LW; Argos lost 27-19 in Regina in their one road game so far. Under is 3-0 in Toronto games, 3-1 in Edmonton games. Eskimos scored 33-41 points in their wins, 21-17 in their losses- they split their first two home games, losing to Hamilton, beating BC.

*************************

CNOTES · Jul 13, 2018

PREVIEW

ESKIMOS SEEK REVENGE AGAINST ARGOS ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

EDMONTON — Back-to-backs are always a challenge, for players and coaches alike.

The familiarity between the Edmonton Eskimos and Toronto Argonauts runs deep entering their Week 5 Friday Night Football meeting; beyond last week’s 20-17 Argos victory, Toronto quarterback James Franklin spent the last three seasons in green and gold as Mike Reilly‘s understudy.

Franklin scored the first point in what could be a running head-to-head battle last week.

From a coaching standpoint, Toronto head coach Marc Trestman believes it’s imperative to separate the two games in a back-to-back.

“They’re going to see some things in us and that’s going to change them, and we’re going to see some things in them and it’s going to change us,” Trestman told Argonauts.ca. “So it’s a whole different mindset of just forgetting the past and moving on and trying to become a better football team and that’s as simplistic as I can make it. I don’t want to complicate it by going into all the variations of going back-to-back because it’s above my pay grade.”

One thing is for sure: The Argonauts will have to be in top form to withstand 60 minutes of Mike Reilly and the Eskimo offence for a second consecutive week.

Last week’s win was needed in a big way in Argo-land.

Adrift at 0-2 and with veteran quarterback Ricky Ray sidelined long-term, Marc Trestman’s team needed something positive: It came in the form of a 20-17 win at BMO Field that boosted Toronto back into relevance in the East Division and, perhaps more importantly, showcased James Franklin’s ability to manage a game under centre.

“We just want to play as a team we can be proud of,” said Trestman. “We think the scoreboard will take care of itself. We did some good things in the first and fourth quarter that we could really hang our hat on, and in the middle part of the game there were things we needed to watch to get better.

“We need to regain that intensity, regain that hunger that we needed to have (last week),” continued Trestman. “That backbone, because we’re going to go in there and face a team that’ll be more than ready.”

The Argonaut defence proved to be the difference last Saturday, stifling Edmonton’s vaunted offence where it mattered most on the field, and coordinator Mike Archer’s group will have to be at its best again come Friday.

“We’re ready. It’s a tough team, (and) they put in some adjustments as well,” said linebacker Marcus Ball. “We know it’s not going to be the same team we faced at BMO. They’re gonna be amped up, ready to get the sour taste out of their mouths.

“We made a few adjustments, we got better in places we needed to. Now it’s time to get out here and ready to roll.”

Roster-wise, the Argos will make a few changes to the roster that beat Edmonton last Saturday. Middle linebacker Terrance Plummer hits the one-game injured list this week, forcing Justin Tuggle — a starter last week at D-end — into his spot. UCF product Troy Davis will slide into Tuggle’s spot, while newly-acquired Eric Striker dresses for the first time following his trade from Saskatchewan.

CFL rookie Jonathon Dowling will get some reps at linebacker; the 26 year-old previously spent NFL time with the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders.

Naturally, the Edmonton Eskimos are steamed about last week and ready to try and bounce back.

Jason Maas’s Esks viewed last week’s game as one they let slip away — and are eager to set the record straight.

“We had an opportunity to finish that game out, despite a slow start, and didn’t,” Maas told Esks.com. “Discipline and focus, not doing our jobs, are at the forefront.”

The team held a players-only meeting to address discipline in the locker room.

“When they show up at 9 o’clock, it’s go time ’til 1:30, (and) I don’t think they were all-in on that,” continued Maas. “For little things — wearing the correct shorts to a meeting, little things it takes discipline to do — (and) some of them believed that was carrying over to the game.

It’s music to a coach’s ears when the players get together and discuss things they all see.”

Maas insists Toronto’s roster shuffling on defence did not impact his team’s preparation.

“Any time you’re going against a defence, you’re going against schemes not necessarily people,” explained Maas. “They’re paid, they’re professional, and we’re (facing) the Toronto Argonauts as a whole and not an individual.”

Star Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly believes the difference was in the details — mostly little — last Saturday in Toronto.

“They are mental mistakes,” said Reilly. “Some are physical, but more often than not it’s mental. It’s about practising the little details in everything you do…it’s something you have to correct right away. Those things show up throughout the season when you lack attention to detail as players.

As a veteran club, it shouldn’t happen very often, but it will happen if you don’t stay on top of it.”

Of course, the Esks are painfully aware what could happen if they make similar mental errors on home turf — and fall behind the eight-ball with another slow start — on Friday.

“It feels good that we get another opportunity to play good football, but we’re obviously aware if we don’t play good football, we won’t get the win,” continued Reilly. “No surprises from us or them, (and) I said it last week: whoever executes better will come away with the win.”

Edmonton’s roster will have two depth changes this week, with rookies Nick Usher and Tanner Green entering the lineup at D-end and fullback, respectively; D-lineman Rakim Cox returns to the practice roster while defensive back Godfrey Onyeka hits the one-game injured list.

Crunchin’ Numbers:

2-6– Mike Reilly’s .250 winning percentage against the Argos is a stark contrast to his .573 career winning percentage (47-35).

8 – Quarterbacks who have started in place of Ricky Ray since he joined Toronto in 2012, including James Franklin’s debut last week. The others? Jarious Jackson, Zach Collaros, Trevor Harris, Logan Kilgore, Dan LeFevour, Drew Willy and Jeff Mathews, for a combined record of 20-20.

9 – Penalties flagged against the Edmonton offensive line in four games, compared to one in three games against Toronto.

With Calgary two games up in the West Division, the Eskimos will feel the pressure to keep pace in a race which already has some separation.

The Argos, meanwhile, could move into a tie for first place in the East with a win — less than two weeks removed from being anchored to the bottom of the division.

Mike Reilly and co. will look to shake their offensive cobwebs from last week, while James Franklin and the Argos will hope to engineer what would likely still be termed another upset.

It’s the Eskimos and Argos.

Live on Friday Night Football from Commonwealth Stadium.

Kickoff is at 9:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on TSN and ESPN2.

CNOTES · Jul 13, 2018

FRIDAY, JULY 13

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at EDM 09:00 PM

TOR +9.5

O 53.5

CNOTES · Jul 14, 2018

GAME RECAP

REILLY’S REVENGE: ESKS HANG ON FOR ONE-POINT WIN OVER ARGOS

EDMONTON – Mike Reilly proved he is still the master, besting his former protege James Franklin as the Edmonton Eskimos emerged victorious from the second half of a home-and-home against the Toronto Argonauts Friday night.

D’haquille Williams recorded 123 receiving yards and a touchdown while Reilly threw for 258 yards and two scores, and the Eskimos avenged their Week 4 loss against the Argos with a victory at home.

Reilly got the Eskimos off to a quick start on the first play from scrimmage, throwing a laser to slotback D’haquille Williams for a big gain. Reilly didn’t waste time before looking deep downfield again two plays later, but a tipped ball was snatched up by Argos DB TJ Heath in the end zone, and Toronto took over possession.

Former Eskimo James Franklin picked up where he left off in last week’s victory, leading the Argonauts into field goal range on their first drive, and K Ronnie Pfeffer made no mistake drilling the 42-yarder to put the Argos up 3-0.

Receiver Armanti Edwards got himself involved in the Argos passing attack late in the first quarter, getting up to grab a pass down the middle before bouncing off a tackle and adding some extra yards on a big gain. Though the Argos only managed three points in the first quarter, Franklin posted an impressive 125 yards passing while completing all but one of his eight attempts.

Attempting to ride the hot hand, Head Coach Marc Trestman decided to go for it on third-and-six deep in Eskimos territory, looking to score the game’s first major. But Franklin’s pass was tipped, and this time it was the Eskimos who grabbed the turnover in the shadow of their own goalposts, holding the Argos pointless on a promising drive.

The Eskimos, held in check for much of the half by a tenacious Argos defence, finally broke through in the final minutes. Back-up running back Jordan Robinson made a quick catch in the flats and followed his block perfectly before showing off his speed, streaking down the sideline for a 30-yard touchdown. Sean Whyte’s conversion was good and the Eskimos took a 7-3 lead.

After a two-and-out by the Argonauts, the Eskimos were poised to strike again, as Reilly threw a picture-perfect pass to Williams that looked destined for a touchdown. But Argos DB Ronnie Yell had a different idea, flying in with a perfectly timed hit, separating man from ball and holding the Eskimos to a single on the ensuing punt.

The two teams headed into halftime with just five points separating them, although the Eskimos were riding momentum into the break after scoring the game’s first touchdown late in the half.

Reilly continued to roll into the second half, leading his team on a methodical 10-play drive on their first possession. Despite the pouring rain which intensified as the game wore on, Reilly had no problem finding his receivers with consistency, completing seven of eight attempts on the drive, including a 10-yard strike to Williams in the end zone for his second touchdown pass of the night.

Williams was penalized after the touchdown for objectionable conduct, and that seemed to light a fire under Franklin and the Argos. Franklin wasted no time finding SB S.J. Green for a 14-yard gain, tacking on an additional 15 yards after a roughing the passer penalty was called on the Eskimos. Just a few plays later Wilder Jr. was rumbling into the end zone, cutting into the Eskimos lead and giving Toronto their first major of the game.

Down by five, the Argonauts opted to go for two points, and Franklin found Green wide open to narrow the deficit to just three as the third quarter came to an end.

An O’Neill punt single extended Edmonton’s lead to four points early in the fourth quarter, but Toronto’s defence locked down Reilly as they attempted to complete the comeback.

Franklin continued his hot run of play on the ensuing drive, completing all six of his attempts as he marched the Argos into field goal range. Ronnie Pfeffer saw his field goal bank in off the left upright, and Toronto trailed by just one point in the late stages of the fourth quarter.

A scary moment occurred late in the fourth quarter as the Eskimos attempted to run out the clock, as RB CJ Gable went down with a head injury. He left the game and will be evaluated.

In the end, it was Reilly who made an emblematic final play; taking the ball down himself and scrambling for the first down, officially sealing the victory for the Eskimos.

Next week the Argonauts will look to get back to their winning ways when they head home to face off against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Eskimos will rest up following the hard-earned victory before heading to Montreal in Week 7 to face off against the Alouettes.

CNOTES · Jul 14, 2018

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….

13) In 2012, Kansas City Chiefs went 2-12; they were -24 in turnovers, so they fired coach Romeo Crennel and hired Andy Reid.

In five years since, Chiefs have been +18/-3/+14/+16/+15 in turnovers, and are 53-27.

12) Alex Smith was KC’s QB in all five of those years, but now he is in Washington and the new QB is Patrick Mahomes, who started in Week 17 LY, throwing for 284 yards in a 27-24 win in Denver. It was his first NFL start.

My question in this; can the Chiefs maintain a positive turnover ratio in double digits despite playing a first-time starting QB? They almost have to turn the ball over more this season, given the normal learning curve for a young QB.

11) From 2000-16, 77 NFL teams were +10 or better in turnovers; of those 77 teams, 58 had worse records the following season, 8 had better records, 11 stayed the same, which suggests that a hugely positive turnover ratio gave the team some luck that is tough to sustain.

35 of the 58 teams whose record regressed won 3+ fewer games the following season.

10) Last year, six NFL teams had a turnover ratio of +10 or better: Ravens +17, Chiefs +15, Chargers +12, Eagles +11, Lions/Jaguars +10.

9) From 2000-16, 92 NFL teams were -10 or worse in turnovers; of those 92 teams, 61 had better records the next year, 21 had worse records, 10 stayed the same.

41 of the 61 teams whose records improved won 3+ more gams the following season.

8) Last year, five NFL teams had a turnover ratio of -10 or worse: Browns -28, Broncos -17, Dolphins/Raiders -14, Texans -12.

7) Going back to the Ravens’ +17 turnover ratio LY, it was the best turnover ratio in the NFL since the ’15 Panthers were +20, but Baltimore missed the playoffs!!!! How are you +17 in turnovers and not a playoff team? It may help explain why they drafted Lamar Jackson.

6) Sounds like kids will be able to go right from high school to the NBA starting in 2022, which means NBA teams should start scouting 9th graders this winter.

5) Jimmy Butler turned down the Timberwolves’ offer of a 4-year, $110M extension, which suggests “Why does Minnesota have a team if their best player won’t take $27.5M a year to play there?” How can the Wolves ever be any good?

4) Chase Utley announced that he’ll retire after this season; the entire Dodger team was at his announcement, a signal of how well-respected he is by teammates.

Utley has solid career numbers; is he a Hall of Famer? I think it is debatable- there were some former ballplayers on Twitter Friday saying he is a no-brainer yes. I’m not so sure— if Jeff Kent isn’t in, why should Utley be in?

3) Atlanta Hawks traded for G Jeremy Lin, who tore his patellar tendon on opening night last season, forcing him to miss the entire year. Lin averaged 14.5 ppg, 5.1 apg and 1.2 steals/game in 2016-17, his first year with Brooklyn.

Nets also acquired Kenneth Faried from Denver, who is owed $13.8M next season, Darrell Arthur, a top-12 protected 2019 first-round pick and a future 2nd-round pick in for Isaiah Whitehead.

The move saves Denver $21M and keeps them from paying the luxury tax. Whitehead will get waived by the Nuggets and become a free agent.

2) Phoenix Suns were 8-1 betting favorites to win the Las Vegas Summer League; they lost their first tournament game, 88-86 to the 76ers. So much for that.

I’m not uncertain that wagering on the summer league is a bad idea.

1) From hoopshype.com, an interesting story about and NBA player and agents:

“I have one really messed-up story involving my agent. When I was an unrestricted free agent, I was hoping to join this one team that really liked me and my agent seemed optimistic that we could figure out a deal. I really wanted to go there; it seemed great and it checked all the boxes that I wanted.

I wasn’t too involved in the talks, my agent just kept updating me every now and then on what was happening. Well, I ended up getting word from someone in the organization that my agent was trying use me to get more money for another one of his clients, who was already on that team. He was telling the team to re-sign his other client at a certain amount and saying they would also be able to sign me at a discount.

I was furious when I found out. I fired my agent and, for some time after that incident, I had a really hard time trusting agents who wanted to step in and represent me.”

Lot of agents are weasels.

CNOTES · Jul 14, 2018

Saturday, July 14

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at British Columbia Lions (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Point-spread: OFF

Game Overview

Winnipeg gained the early edge in this home-and-home series with its play on both sides of the ball. Andrew Harris rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown on nine carries and Adam Bighill posted a pair of interceptions on defense including one that was returned 55-yards for a touchdown. Leading 28-10 at the half, the Blue Bombers cruised to the lopsided win. Matt Nichols saw his first action of the season coming off a knee injury and the rust was evident with a 55.2 completion percentage on 29 passing attempts for 162 yards and a score.

The Lions have gotten doubled up in their last two games by a combined score of 82-41. Both losses came on the road following a 22-10 victory at home against Montreal as 8 ½-point favorites in Week 1. Jonathan Jennings ended last Saturday’s game with 105 yards passing plus those two picks with zero touchdown throws. Cody Fajardo added a third interception while completing five of six attempts for 68 yards. Jeremiah Johnson had a decent day running the ball with 80 rushing yards on 13 attempts.

Betting Trends

-- Winnipeg has won six of the last nine meetings SU while covering ATS in eight of those games. It has a 6-1 edge ATS in its last seven road games against the Lions and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in BC.

**********************

Saturday, July 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (2 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 2) - 7/14/2018, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 6-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 4-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report

Saturday, July 14

Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Winnipeg is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Winnipeg is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Winnipeg is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Winnipeg's last 18 games on the road
Winnipeg is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing British Columbia
Winnipeg is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing British Columbia
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 8 games when playing British Columbia
Winnipeg is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Winnipeg is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Winnipeg's last 16 games when playing on the road against British Columbia

British Columbia Lions
British Columbia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
British Columbia is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of British Columbia's last 6 games
British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games at home
British Columbia is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Winnipeg
British Columbia is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 7 of British Columbia's last 8 games when playing Winnipeg
British Columbia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
British Columbia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of British Columbia's last 16 games when playing at home against Winnipeg

********************

Saturday, July 14

Winnipeg @ BC Lions

Game 365-266
July 14, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
110.760
BC Lions
109.472
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 1 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
N/A

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Winnipeg (2-2) @ BC Lions (1-2)— Winnipeg covered eight of last nine series games. Blue Bombers waxed BC 41-19 last week, racing out to 28-10 halftime lead. Lions threw three INT’s, were -3 in turnovers, and were outgained 359-280. Home side won four of last five series games; Bombers lost their last two visits here, by total of four points. Over is 3-1 in Bomber games this year; they scored 56-41 points in their two wins, 30-17 in their losses. Winnipeg split its first two road games. Home side won Lions’ first three games this year; they beat Montreal 22-10 in their home opener. Over is 2-1 in BC games this year.

CNOTES · Jul 14, 2018

SATURDAY, JULY 14
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WPG at BC 10:00 PM

WPG -4.5

O 55.0

CNOTES · Jul 15, 2018

LIONS ROAR IN COMEBACK, DEFEAT BOMBERS 20-17

VANCOUVER – After shaking off a little rust that accumulated in the past 309 days leading up to his return, Travis Lulay pieced together a memorable comeback to give the Lions their second win of the season, defeating the Blue Bombers 20-17.

It took just five plays for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to get themselves on the board. Andrew Harris dashed his way to pay-dirt on a 37-yard run play to give Winnipeg their early jump on the Lions.

The long-awaited return of Travis Lulay behind centre for the Lions came with some rust. The 10-year vet’s first drive of the night ended with an interception in the end zone 11 plays after starting the drive on their own 24-yard line.

The first quarter wrapped up with the only scoring being that of Harris’ early touchdown, as both teams struggled to get much offence operating.

In the second quarter, Harris continued to pound on his former team, scoring his second touchdown of the night on a 4-yard plunge. The score increased the Bombers lead to 14-0.

The special team’s guru in Mike O’Shea reached into his bag of tricks immediately following the Harris touchdown. Lining up for the kick-off to follow, the Bombers elected to kick onside, catching the Lions on their heels and unable to get to the ball before the Blue and Gold.

Winnipeg would have to settle for a field goal, however, on the following offensive drive. Still managing to further increase their lead over the Lions to 17-0, nonetheless.

The next scoring opportunity the Lions would have come at the tail end of the second quarter. After Chris Rainey set up the offence with good field position following a 38-yard punt return, the Lions started their drive in Winnipeg’s end of the field.

With 1:40 remaining in the half, Lulay marched the Leos down to the 5-yard line only to have a potential touchdown pass slip through the hands of Bryan Burnham in the end zone after coming into contact with Kevin Fogg of the Blue Bombers.

Winnipeg would maintain their 17-point lead as their defence kept the Lions off the board come halftime, and having over a hundred yards rushing.

Not to go down without a fight, the Lions defence flexed their muscles in the third quarter.

After the Bombers marched their way downfield after halftime, the Leos dug their cleats in deep to make the goal-line stand after the Bombers elected to go for it on third down.

In the closing five minutes of the third quarter, the Lions pieced together an explosive drive on offence. Starting on their own 12-yard line, the Lions got a pair of big plays from Chris Rainey, who took the bulk of the reps at running back after Jeremiah Johnson left the game in the first half.

Cody Fajardo capped off the BC drive with a quarterback sneak from 1-yard out, narrowing the Winnipeg lead to ten.

The momentum fully shifted in way of the Lions as the third quarter came to an end after Lions’ defensive back Winston Rose picked off Matt Nichols on an overthrow, giving the Black and Orange the ball heading into the fourth quarter.

Penalties took their toll on O’Shea’s Bombers on the Lions drive, committing two roughing the passer penalties, allowing Ty Long to narrow the lead to a touchdown after he notched a 46-yard field goal.

Winnipeg’s attempt to take back their initial momentum was halted by another Lions’ defensive stand on a third-down play. Bombers Chris Streveler flanked right as Odell Willis cut his way through the Winnipeg line and wrapping up the opposing quarterback to force the turnover on downs.

Lulay roared the Lions down the field in the closing minutes of the game to eventually connect with Shaq Johnson on the game-tying touchdown, bringing the score to 17-17.

The following series, the Lions defence fed off of the momentum and energy inside BC Place, as they continued to apply the pressure on Matt Nichols, who would throw his third interception of the game.

Lulay and the Lions took over on offence with 1:11 remaining in the fourth quarter and quickly got things rolling, connecting with Bryan Burnham for 38 yards, setting up a game-winning 16-yard field goal by Ty Long.

The Lions get their second victory of the season and improve their record to 2-2, while the Bombers fall to a 2-3 record.

The Lions will take on the Ottawa REDBLACKS next week in the nation’s capital on Friday night. Game time is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Meanwhile, for the Blue Bombers, they’ll hope to get back on track in Toronto when they take on James Franklin and the Argonauts on Saturday of Week 6 of the CFL schedule. That game is scheduled to be an afternoon start of 4:00 p.m. ET at BMO Field.

CNOTES · Jul 15, 2018

WEEK 6

Thursday, July 19, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
7:30 PM Saskatchewan Roughriders Hamilton Tiger Cats

Friday, July 20, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
7:30 PM British Columbia Lions Ottawa Redblacks

Saturday, July 21, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
4:00 PM Winnipeg Blue Bombers Toronto Argonauts
9:00 PM Montreal Alouettes Calgary Stampeders

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WEST DIVISION

RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV
1 Calgary 4 4 0 0 8 120 38 2-0-0 2-0-0 0-0-0
2 Edmonton 5 3 2 0 6 128 125 2-1-0 1-1-0 2-0-0
3 BC 4 2 2 0 4 83 109 2-0-0 0-2-0 1-2-0
4 Saskatchewan 4 2 2 0 4 79 95 2-1-0 0-1-0 0-0-0
5 Winnipeg 5 2 3 0 4 161 113 1-1-0 1-2-0 1-2-0

EAST DIVISION

RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV
1 Ottawa 4 2 2 0 4 85 86 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-0-0
2 Hamilton 4 2 2 0 4 96 84 1-0-0 1-2-0 0-0-0
3 Toronto 4 1 3 0 2 61 101 1-1-0 0-2-0 0-0-0
4 Montreal 4 1 3 0 2 61 123 0-2-0 1-1-0 0-1-0