Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

Patriots win streak ends with 27-20 loss at Dolphins
December 12, 2017


MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) New England coach Bill Belichick was asked if the Patriots' eight-game winning streak ended because they looked past the Miami Dolphins to Sunday's showdown between division leaders at Pittsburgh.


Belichick dismissed the idea.


''Give me a break,'' he said with a glare.


So how to explain New England's 27-20 loss Monday night? The Patriots (10-3) were 11-point favorites but missed a chance to clinch their ninth consecutive AFC East title - at least for another week.


The upset erased some of the sting to a disappointing season for the Dolphins (6-7), who have won two in a row.


''We've been waiting for this to happen,'' coach Adam Gase said.


Here are some things to know about the Patriots' first loss since Oct. 1:


ORDINARY BRADY


New England failed to convert a third down for the first time since 1991, and Tom Brady looked like the quarterback that season, Hugh Millen.


Brady was intercepted twice by Xavien Howard and had his lowest passer rating since 2013.


''It starts with me,'' Brady said. ''I've got to throw the ball better.''


The Dolphins sacked him twice and broke up seven passes.


''We were trying to keep them a little bit off balance,'' Gase said. ''The guys did a good job of playing team defense. It really starts with our front. They just played well together.''


Brady went 24 for 43 for 233 yards and one touchdown. New England was 0 for 11 on third down.

HEAVY LOAD


Kenyan Drake ran for 26 yards on his first carry for Miami and kept going. He finished with 114 yards rushing to top the 100 mark for the second consecutive game, and added 79 receiving.


''We saw him running past linebackers, and he breaks tackles in the hole,'' quarterback Jay Cutler said. ''He's becoming one of those complete backs you can do a lot with.''


Drake has emerged as Miami's workhorse back following the midseason trade of Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia.

STOUT RUN DEFENSE


The Patriots ran for 196 yards to beat the Dolphins in Week 12. In the rematch, Miami allowed only 25 yards on 10 carries.


''Two weeks ago they were a lot more physical than us,'' defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh said. ''We wanted to play to the whistle and impose our will.''


The Patriots totaled 248 yards in their worst effort since Week 17 of the 2015 season - also a loss at Miami.


SHUTDOWN CORNER


Howard now has four career interceptions, all in the past two weeks. He also broke up three throws by Brady.


''We knew what we could take advantage of,'' the second-year pro said. ''I just wanted to go out there and make big plays for the team.''


COMING UP


If the Patriots weren't looking ahead to the Steelers before the loss, they were immediately afterward. Pittsburgh (11-2) leads by one game in the race for the best AFC record.


''We can't go up there and play as poorly as we did tonight,'' Brady said. ''We have to do a lot of things better.''

 

[CNOTES]

Overreaction: Cancel the Super Bowl parade plans in Philly
December 12, 2017


PHILADELPHIA (AP) There won't be a Super Bowl parade in Philadelphia this season.


The Eagles' championship hopes went down with Carson Wentz when the star quarterback tore his left ACL in a 43-35 win over the Rams. The NFC East champions have the best record in the conference, but home-field advantage isn't going to help them overcome losing Wentz.


Hey, Nick Foles is no slouch.


Foles was the last quarterback to lead Philadelphia to the playoffs in 2013 and had one of the best seasons ever, tossing 27 touchdown passes and only two interceptions on his way to the third-highest passer rating (119.2) in NFL history.


His career in Philly fizzled afterward and Chip Kelly traded him away, but he is back with the Eagles and in position to steer them into the playoffs.


Foles is no Wentz. But he has talented receivers and an outstanding group of running backs to lean on.


And he is capable of a spectacular performance. Foles once threw seven TD passes in a game.


Here are more overreactions following Week 14:


---


OVERREACTION: The Browns are going to make touchdown sunglasses a new trend.


REALISTIC REACTION: They're 0-13. Nobody should imitate anything they do.


---


OVERREACTION: The NFL is turning into the WWE with all the taunting and fighting .


REALISTIC REACTION: It's not scripted, though.


---


OVERREACTION: James Stewart and Carolina (9-4) exposed Minnesota's defensive weaknesses.


REALISTIC REACTION: The Vikings (10-3) played their third straight road game. They had to be weary.


---


OVERREACTION: The Chiefs (7-6) are back. An impressive win over the Raiders (6-7) put them in control in the AFC West.


REALISTIC REACTION: They have to beat the Chargers (7-6) on Saturday night to stay on top.


---


OVERREACTION: Marcus Mariota should be benched. He is hurting Tennessee's playoff chances.


REALISTIC REACTION: Backup Matt Cassel is 5-13 in his last 18 starts since 2015.


---


OVERREACTION: The Seahawks (8-5) showed they can't win big games on the road.


REALISTIC REACTION: There's no shame in losing to these Jaguars (9-4).


---


OVERREACTION: The Rams (9-4) aren't ready for prime time just yet.


REALISTIC REACTION: They beat the Saints (9-4) two weeks ago.


---


OVERREACTION: Miami gave the rest of the league a blue print on how to beat the Patriots (10-3).


REALISTIC REACTION: It was a classic letdown with a showdown for the AFC's No. 1 seed coming up at Pittsburgh (11-2).

 

[CNOTES]

Titans latest NFL team to choose week on road over jet lag
December 12, 2017


NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) The Tennessee Titans are out of town this week, and veteran linebacker Brian Orakpo couldn't be happier.


The franchise decided once the NFL schedule came out in mid-April to spend the week between back-to-back road games against the Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers in Arizona.


The main reason? Cut down the travel to keep players a bit fresher for the final month of the season.


It's a decision made by lots of NFL teams over the years. New England spent the week after beating Denver in Colorado for high-altitude training at the Air Force Academy before playing in Mexico City last month - and winning. Philadelphia spent the past week in the Los Angeles area after a loss in Seattle - and then beat the Rams.


''I totally agree with what we're doing because the jet lag is vicious,'' Orakpo said. ''There's definitely a setback, and also the time difference, getting used to the time difference on the West Coast, there's all these different elements. It really helps if we just stayed out there, not have to worry so much traveling back and forth because it's a lot of mileage, especially when you're trying to play at a high level in a football game.''


Spending a week away from home during the season is something that neither the Titans nor coach Mike Mularkey had ever done. The Titans, who relocated to Tennessee from Houston in 1997, are among the six NFL teams yet to play in London, and they left Nashville for training camp only once in 21 seasons.


The motivation is simple.


''We're trying to eliminate distractions,'' Philadelphia coach Doug Pederson said. ''It's hard when you've got back-to-back West Coast trips like this, to be able to fly back home and then practice and come back out this way at the end of the week. So, try to keep the week as normal as possible for the guys, for the coaches.''


The actual process of relocating an NFL team for a week during the regular season requires months of planning. Brent Akers, the director of team operations for the Titans, and his colleagues made at least seven trips to the hotel where the team is staying. They even rewired the building, so the Titans could simply plug in Monday and start working as if back home at the team's headquarters.


Packing wasn't easy either.


A 53-foot truck left Nashville on Dec. 5 headed to Arizona filled with 40,000 pounds of equipment including:


-A Juggs machine for firing balls at players at practice.


-Down markers.


-Six water coolers for practices.


-New computers, projectors and TV monitors to be ready and waiting for the Titans rather than pack up all that gear.


-Tape and other gear needed by trainers to treat injuries between games.


-Cleats.


-Uniforms.


-And, yes, weights. Strength coach Steve Watterson has an area set aside for workouts because the Titans must lift between games.


At the hotel in Arizona, the Titans are using about 80,000 square feet of meeting space, not counting rooms for sleeping:


-Offices for everyone from general manager Jon Robinson and Mularkey and position coaches to the media relations department preparing for their next game in San Francisco.


-A ballroom now is a locker room.


-Meeting rooms turned into a cafeteria.


-A training room.


-And yes, a workout space for all those weights.


The Titans will only have to travel to Arizona State for practices, though Tuesday remains the players' off day. Safety Johnathan Cyprien, who spent a week in London with the Jaguars, knew what to expect.


''Oh yeah, we're stuck together,'' Cyprien said. ''We'll be stuck together kind of like college. You know, where you go to practice, you go to class and you sleep in the same room with the same guys all day. You have no choice but to get closer when you're put in those situations.''


Lastly, lots and lots of bags for essentially three separate trips in the span of 10 days. Usually, a road trip features 125 to 130 people, but this extended stay has 171 with the practice squad and other employees needed for a game week. Players alone will have at least three bags apiece.


On Sunday night, the Titans will board their third different airplane, which must be big enough to carry home all that gear.


Only time, and the three remaining games, will determine how helpful the travel plans were for Tennessee. Of course, both the Patriots and Eagles won after spending a week away, and Philadelphia went home as NFC East champs . The Titans (8-5) are hoping for a similar benefit trying to end an eight-season playoff drought coming off a 12-7 loss to Arizona.


''It's an opportunity for us to get away together as a team,'' Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota said. ''I think that's going to benefit us and bring this team closer. I do think it will help us down the stretch.''

 

[CNOTES]

december nfl best bets & opinions ( based on 5 units )


date w-l-t % units record


12/11/2017 NO PLAYS
12/10/2017 16-11-0 59.25% +19.50
12/07/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/04/2017 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
12/03/2017 11-17-0 39.29% -38.50


Totals..........27 - 31........46.55%............-35.50


best bets:......................ats.................... ..units.........................o/u....................units


12/11/2017................................N O P L A Y S.......................................................
12/10/2017..................6 - 3....................+13.50....................... ...5 - 3.................+8.50
12/07/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 1.................-5.50
12/03/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 0..................push
12/03/2017..................5 - 5.....................-2.50............................5 - 5..................-2.50


Totals..........................11 - 10.................+0.00.......................... .10 - 9.................+ 0.50

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Patriots close to signing WR Britt
December 12, 2017


Kenny Britt is getting another shot, and with the defending Super Bowl champions no less.


Britt, a veteran wide receiver who was waived by the Cleveland Browns last Friday, visited with the Patriots in Foxborough, Mass., on Tuesday and agreed to a two-year deal with the Patriots, according to multiple reports.


The 29-year-old was a first-round pick in 2009 out of Rutgers, a school Patriots coach Bill Belichick has shown affinity for throughout the years.


Britt had 18 catches for 233 yards and two touchdowns in nine games with the Browns before being waived.


Last season, Britt logged his first career 1,000-yard receiving season with the Los Angeles Rams, collecting a career-high 68 receptions for 1,002 yards and five scores.

--Devin Hester, the all-time leader in combined kickoff and punt returns for touchdowns, announced his retirement from the NFL on Twitter.


"I have good news and bad news," the 35-year-old Hester wrote. "Good news: Commissioner Goodell, you can put the kickoff back at the 30. Bad news: Y'all will have to find a new favorite returner."


Hester could have a case for becoming the first return man to be named to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He returned 14 punts, five kickoffs and a missed field goal for touchdowns in his career for an NFL record 20 return TDs.


A four-time Pro Bowl selection, Hester played for the Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks last season. He hasn't suited up for a team this year.


--Washington Redskins safety Su'a Cravens has received medical clearance to resume football activities and wants to return next season, his agent said in a statement.


Agent Fadde Mikhail said Cravens, who was suffering from post-concussion syndrome, was treated by Dr. Michael Collins at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center's Sport Medicine Concussion Program.


The Redskins had placed Cravens on the exempt/left squad list on Sept. 3 after the 22-year-old said he wanted to retire. Cravens was then placed on the reserve/left squad list 15 days later, meaning he was ineligible to return during the 2017 regular season or postseason.


Also, the Redskins placed tight end Jordan Reed (hamstring), linebacker Chris Carter (fractured leg) and running back Byron Marshall (hamstring) on injured reserve. Reed, who signed a five-year, $50-million extension in the offseason, has missed the past six games.


--The Pittsburgh Steelers placed linebacker Ryan Shazier on injured reserve nearly one week after he underwent spinal stabilization surgery.


"Unfortunately Ryan will not be able to contribute on the field during the remainder of this season," Steelers president Art Rooney II said in a statement. "However, even off the field Ryan will continue to be one of our team leaders. We know his spirit and positive outlook will help him to continue in his recovery, as well as serve as an inspiration to our team."


The 25-year-old had surgery on Wednesday.


--The Denver Broncos placed right guard Ron Leary on injured reserve, the team announced.


Leary, who is nursing a back injury, started all 11 games this season after joining the tram as an unrestricted free agent from the Dallas Cowboys.

--Detroit Lions center Travis Swanson was placed in the NFL's concussion protocol after reporting symptoms following the team's 24-21 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the team announced.


Swanson also sustained a concussion with delayed symptoms last season against the New Orleans Saints on Dec. 4, 2016. The 26-year-old appeared on the injury report days later with a concussion and sat out the final four games of the season as well as the club's playoff game versus the Saints.


--The Tampa Bay Buccaneers promoted linebacker Riley Bullough to the active roster from the practice squad and waived cornerback Ayodeji Olatoye, the team announced.


The 24-year-old Bullough has been on the Buccaneers' practice squad since the beginning of the season. He went unselected in last year's NFL Draft after playing college football at Michigan State.

 

[CNOTES]

Packers' Rodgers says he is cleared to play
December 13, 2017


The uncertainty about whether Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers would be ready to return this week was resolved Tuesday night when Rodgers announced on Instagram that he was medically cleared to play football.


That presumably means that Rodgers, sidelined the past two months due to a broken right collarbone, will play Sunday in a pivotal game against the Carolina Panthers.


Following a day of consultation with a medical team led by Pat McKenzie, the team physician, Rodgers posted on his Instagram account: "It's been a long road from that day to this, but I'm happy to say I've been medically cleared to return. Thanks for all the love, support, prayers, and well wishes over the past 8 weeks (heart) and a big thank you to Dr McKenzie and our incredible training staff. #riseagain"


Rodgers sustained the injury in Week 6 against the Minnesota Vikings, when he was tackled by linebacker Anthony Barr. It was the second time in five years that Rodgers broke his collarbone.


Green Bay put him on injured reserve, hoping he could return in Week 15. Last week it became apparent Rodgers might return this week, although there was some concern early this week that Rodgers might not be cleared.


The Packers went 3-4 in Rodgers' absence with Brett Hundley serving as the quarterback.


Green Bay is still in the playoff hunt with a 7-6 record, but Rodgers will not have an easy task as his first two games will be at Carolina (9-4) and home against the Minnesota Vikings (10-3).


The Packers, who might need to win their remaining three games to make the postseason, finish at Detroit (7-6).

 

[CNOTES]

The Latest: ESPN pulls McNabb, Davis amid misconduct suit
December 12, 2017


NEW YORK (AP) The Latest on a sexual misconduct lawsuit filed against the NFL Network by a former employee (all times local):


3 p.m.


ESPN says former NFL players Donovan McNabb and Mike Davis have been pulled from the air while it investigates a sexual misconduct lawsuit filed against NFL Network.


ESPN spokesman Josh Krulewitz said Tuesday in a statement that neither McNabb nor Davis would appear on any of the networks while the investigation proceeds.


A woman who worked as a wardrobe stylist at NFL Network accuses McNabb and Davis of various sexually inappropriate encounters. She also made accusations against former players Marshall Faulk, Ike Taylor and Heath Evans, and former NFL Network executive Eric Weinberger. None of the men accused responded to messages seeking comment from The Associated Press.


Jami Cantor worked at the NFL Network for a decade until she was fired in October 2016. In the suit against NFL Enterprises, she alleges age and sex discrimination, sexual harassment that created a hostile work environment, wrongful termination and defamation.


---


9:45 a.m.


Hall of Fame player Marshall Faulk and two other NFL Network analysts have been suspended after a former employee alleged sexual misconduct in a lawsuit.


NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy on Tuesday identified the three as Faulk, Ike Taylor and Heath Evans. He says they have been ''suspended from their duties at NFL Network pending an investigation into these allegations.''


According to court documents first reported by Bloomberg , former wardrobe stylist Jami Cantor described several sexually inappropriate encounters with the three retired NFL players and others who have worked for the NFL Network.


Former NFL Network executive Eric Weinberger and former NFL Network analyst Donovan McNabb are among those named in the suit. McNabb now works for ESPN.


None of the men accused responded to messages seeking comment from The Associated Press.


Cantor worked at the NFL Network for a decade. She filed an amended complaint originally filed in Los Angeles Superior Court in October.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack


— Wisconsin 81, Western Kentucky 80— Hilltoppers will make noise in C-USA.


— LSU 80, Houston 77— Highly entertaining game; Tigers are 6-2.


— Detroit traded 2B Ian Kinsler to the Angels for minor leaguers.


— Loyola, Chi G Clayton Custer will miss 3-to-5 weeks (ankle). Good player.


— RP Joe Smith signed with the Astros; they’ll be his 8th team in a 12-year career.


— In 4th quarter of Steelers’ last three games, Antonio Brown has caught 13 balls for 268 yards and two TD’s- thats in only three quarters.




***********************




Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….


13) How would you like to be a season ticket salesman for the Miami Marlins? They’ve traded Stanton, Gordon and now Marcell Ozuna, who heads to St Louis. Maybe the ushers in Miami’s ballpark will get fired too, since there won’t be many fans to lead to their seats next year.


12) I mentioned last month how the Marlins fired TV announcer Rich Waltz, who had been in Miami for 13 years. Now it doesn’t matter to me anymore; I have Stanton/Ozuna in my fantasy league, so now I have zero reason to watch the Marlins anyway.


11) I’m watching the 76ers-Wolves game on ESPN Tuesday night; good game, it is 94-94 in the 4th quarter and then I realize, Ben Simmons hasn’t scored a point in this game. 33 minutes, 0-4 from the floor, no foul shots. How can this be?


76ers won in OT; Simmons wound up with 7 points, 8 assists, 7 turnovers. He is an unusual player, almost seems to dislike shooting, but he is a great passer.


10) Twitter can be fun; I posted something about “How can Simmons play 33:00 and not score?” during the 4th quarter. I get one reply, from a 76ers’ fan in Texas:


“Good (bleep)ing question.”


9) Arizona State media relations director Doug Tammaro made a promise to his daughter this summer, that if ASU beat Kansas in basketball the year, he’d give her $500 to spend at a mall. Unknown to him, she taped the promise on her phone.


Sun Devils won 95-85 in Lawrence Sunday and Tammaro’s daughter posted the video of her dad’s promise on Twitter. He says he will happily pay up.


8) Sounds like no matter who Manny Machado plays for next season, he will be a shortstop and not a third baseman.


7) Couple years ago, I rent a car in Las Vegas in July; it is freakin’ hot in the desert in July. So I go to the hotel’s parking garage to pick up the car, and I realize it is a push-button ignition— had never seen one of those.


So I’m sitting in the car and I push the button and nothing happens. I’m looking around- no idea what to do. No owner’s manual, nothing. Push the button again, nothing happens. It is too damn hot to walk back into the hotel and ask them, but it is getting really hot in the car too and I’m sweating and getting aggravated.


Finally I realized that if I pushed the button while stepping on (kicking) the brake pedal, the freakin’ car will start. Not one of my finer moments.


6) With bowl season starting Saturday, keep in mind that since 2013, the MAC is 5-18 in bowl games. No bueno.


5) I’m looking forward to when kids can jump from high school to the NBA again; think it will be healthier for everyone; the NBA, college ball and the G-League.


4) Twins signed Michael Pineda to a 2-year, $10M contract, but Pineda had Tommy John surgery in July and figures to miss most of the 2018 season.


3) Lookalikes: Cincinnati Reds’ manager Bryan Price and Phil Mickelson.


2) Daytime TV gets a huge positive jolt this week, with baseball’s winter meetings on MLB Network. Actual interesting stuff.


1) It is so difficult to win a championship; you have to dance thru a minefield of potential disasters, avoiding injuries in addition to playing well enough to win.


Think about the Eagles; they lose their starting QB for the year, moments after they got the benefit of a terrible taunting penalty against Trumaine Johnson. Had that penalty not been called, Eagles try a 50-yard FG on next play and Wentz is on the sidelines, healthy.


Wentz didn’t get hurt when he was hit, by the way. Apparently the injury happened earlier on that play when he planted his foot and cut. Kind of like Teddy Bridgewater’s injury.

 

[CNOTES]

published 12/11




NFL opening line report: Patriots at Steelers highlights Week 15
Patrick Everson


'We’ll look to open the Patriots as 2- or 3-point favorites. They are simply the most dominant club in the league, and the next team isn’t that close."


As the NFL season hits Week 15, the playoff push is reaching full throttle. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for a quartet of key contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.


New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (no line)


New England is very much rounding into the form of a defending Super Bowl champion, though it still has some Week 14 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Miami. The Patriots (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) are on an eight-game winning streak, cashing for bettors in seven of those contests. In Week 13, the Pats stumped Buffalo 23-3 as a 7.5-point road favorite.


Pittsburgh barely kept alive its winning streak in the Week 14 Sunday nighter. The Steelers (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) snagged their eighth consecutive victory (4-4 ATS), edging Baltimore 39-38 on a last-minute field goal while failing to cash as a 6-point home chalk.


With Pittsburgh playing late Sunday and New England yet to play, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting this line.


“As long as nothing out of the ordinary happens in the final two games of the week, we’ll look to open the Patriots as 2- or 3-point favorites,” Cooley said. “They are simply the most dominant club in the league, and the next team isn’t that close. This game will command a huge handle, and hopefully we’ll get a great game.”


Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1)


Kansas City finally got out of its rut, halting a four-game losing streak and a 1-6 SU and ATS slide overall. The Chiefs (7-6 SU and ATS) dropped Oakland 26-15 on Sunday as a 4.5-point home fave.


Thanks to K.C.’s slide, Los Angeles (7-6 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) has surged into contention in the AFC West. The Chargers rolled Washington 30-13 laying 6 points at home Sunday.


“The Chiefs finally flexed their muscles this week, but wow, the Chargers have certainly impressed,” Cooley said. “And really that’s been the case all season. We have L.A. ranked higher in our ratings at this point, which is probably surprising to some. Early smart money is on the Chargers.”


That took the opening line of Chiefs -1 down to pick ‘em at Bookmaker.eu. Both teams will go on slightly shorter rest, as this is a Saturday night game.


Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)


Los Angeles had a great opportunity to take a two-game lead in the NFC West, but couldn’t find a way to handle Philadelphia, even after knocking QB Carson Wentz out of the game. The Rams (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) rebounded from a 21-7 first-half deficit and took a 35-31 lead early in the fourth quarter, but ultimately fell short 43-35 laying 1 point at home.


The reason L.A. could have taken a two-game lead: Seattle lost at Jacksonville 30-24 as a 3-point pup Sunday. The Seahawks beat the Rams 16-10 as a 2-point road ‘dog on Oct. 8, so a win this week would create a tie at the top of the division, with Seattle owning the tiebreaker on head-to-head.


“Early sharp money suggests this should have opened closer to a pick,” Cooley said, noting the line indeed moved down to pick ‘em on Seattle money. “I could certainly see this game going either way. Seattle got the best of the Rams earlier this season, but that Los Angeles squad has made leaps-and-bounds improvement since then.”


Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (no line)


Carolina moved back into a tie atop the NFC South, taking advantage of New Orleans’ Thursday night loss at Atlanta. The Panthers (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) slowed down red-hot Minnesota, claiming a 31-24 home victory getting 2.5 points Sunday.


Green Bay nearly gave up Cleveland’s first win of the year, pulling out a 27-21 overtime victory giving 2.5 points on the road. Now, there’s the expectation that star quarterback Aaron Rodgers returns for the Week 15 clash with Carolina. But since that’s not yet certain, Bookmaker.eu isn’t posting a number.


“We’re expecting Rodgers to be back in action, but you never know. So we’ll wait to get confirmation before putting up a line,” Cooley said. “Rodgers is worth so much to the line, we can’t risk hanging a bad number. If he does suit up, we’re probably looking at Carolina being a small favorite, possibly down to even a pick ‘em.”

 

[CNOTES]

Sharps are advising that these Week 15 NFL lines are going to move
Art Aronson


No one thought the meeting between the Chargers and Chiefs in Week 15 would turn out to be the most important game in the AFC West this season.


Game to bet now


Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City (-1)


When the Chargers and Chiefs met nearly three months ago it was Kansas City’s third win in what would be a five-game win streak, and Los Angeles’ third consecutive loss in what would be a season-opening four-game losing streak - the two teams then headed in opposite directions. No one thought their meeting in mid-December would turn out to be the most important in the AFC West this season.


Both teams are now 7-6, both have winnable games in Weeks 16 and 17, and the second-place team in the division will likely not get a wild-card playoff spot – so this game is basically "it" in the division.


The line hasn’t budged since opening at -1 on Sunday night, but bettors should be aware that the Chargers should have a little extra motivation due to their earlier loss to the Chiefs. If the Chargers fall a game back with two to go, and KC has the first tie-breaker due to beating LA twice, it’s basically over for the Chargers.


Game to wait on


New England at Pittsburgh (+2.5)


It’s likely that the Patriots were 35,000 feet someplace over Georgia when they forgot about Monday night’s unexpected loss to Miami. In the grand scheme of things, win or lose the Pats still would have to beat the Steelers this coming Sunday to maintain home-field advantage in the playoffs, so it’s not likely they would empty the playbook in Miami. Then there is the matter of TE Rob Gronkowski who, due to suspension, will have had two weeks to rest before going at the Steelers.


Books apparently didn’t pay the Miami game too much heed, since the line didn’t move an inch after New England turned in perhaps its worst game since Tom Brady was serving the final game of his four-week suspension in Week 4 last season. Early money did fatten the line from Pittsburgh +1 to the current +2.5, so bettors might want to see if public money stays on the Steelers, perhaps nudging the number down a bit.


Total to watch


Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (47.5)


LA has been one of the top-scoring teams in the league on the road this season, averaging more than 32 points away from home. And that number balloons to more than 37 if a Week 11 seven-point hiccup is eliminated from the mix. Much of the credit goes to RB Todd Gurley, who has been both healthy and productive.


Gurley figures to get the ball early and often against a Seahawks defense that is only a shadow of the unit that it was over the last half-decade. Seattle gave up 30 points in a ugly loss to Jacksonville on Sunday and needs to step up big-time at home against the Rams. The 47.5 is the highest posted total for a Seahawks home game this season and the highest overall since the 49.5 on opening day at Green Bay.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's Top ATS Teams:


1. Eagles 10-3
2. Vikes 9-4
t3. Panthers 8-5
t3. Jags 8-5
t3. Rams 8-5
t3. Pats 8-5
t3. Saints 8-5


NFL's Worst ATS Teams:


32. Browns 3-10
t31. Bucs 3-9-1
t31. Broncos 3-9-1
t29. Raiders 4-8-1
t29. Cards 4-8-1

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 15


Thursday, December 14


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DENVER (4 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 10) - 12/14/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games this season.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road lined games this season.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points this season.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 59-83 ATS (-32.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 16


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CHICAGO (4 - 9) at DETROIT (7 - 6) - 12/16/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DETROIT is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 133-173 ATS (-57.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (7 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 6) - 12/16/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 118-89 ATS (+20.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 118-89 ATS (+20.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 5-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 17


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PHILADELPHIA (11 - 2) at NY GIANTS (2 - 11) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (7 - 6) at CAROLINA (9 - 4) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (5 - 8) at MINNESOTA (10 - 3) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in dome games this season.
MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (5 - 7) at BUFFALO (7 - 6) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (4 - 9) at JACKSONVILLE (9 - 4) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (5 - 8) at NEW ORLEANS (9 - 4) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (6 - 7) at WASHINGTON (5 - 8) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
WASHINGTON is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 60-94 ATS (-43.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 85-116 ATS (-42.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 85-116 ATS (-42.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 63-88 ATS (-33.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 85-116 ATS (-42.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 23-46 ATS (-27.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (7 - 6) at CLEVELAND (0 - 13) - 12/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA RAMS (9 - 4) at SEATTLE (8 - 5) - 12/17/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 183-229 ATS (-68.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 183-229 ATS (-68.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 83-118 ATS (-46.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 131-181 ATS (-68.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 142-181 ATS (-57.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 67-97 ATS (-39.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SEATTLE is 67-38 ATS (+25.2 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (11 - 2) - 12/17/2017, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (8 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 10) - 12/17/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (7 - 6) at OAKLAND (6 - 7) - 12/17/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 33-60 ATS (-33.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 32-57 ATS (-30.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December18


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ATLANTA (8 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 9) - 12/18/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 15


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thursday, December 14


DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Denver's last 12 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver




Saturday, December 16


CHICAGO @ DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games at home


LA CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games




Sunday, December 17


CINCINNATI @ MINNESOTA
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Minnesota is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games


NY JETS @ NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Jets's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games


MIAMI @ BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Miami


GREEN BAY @ CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Green Bay's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games


BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games


HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home


PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia


ARIZONA @ WASHINGTON
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Washington is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Arizona


LA RAMS @ SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Seattle is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against LA Rams


TENNESSEE @ SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Tennessee


NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home


DALLAS @ OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home




Monday, December 18


ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing Atlanta

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 15


Thursday's game
Broncos (4-9) @ Colts (3-10)— Denver snapped its 8-game skid with shutout of Jets; Broncos are a road favorite despite being 0-6 on road (0-6 vs spread, 0-3 as road dog), losing away from home by 10-21-10-28-7-26 points. Denver has only 13 offensive TD’s in its last 10 games. Colts lost last four games (three by 4 or less points), are 0-3 vs spread in last three; they’re 2-4 at home, with both wins by a FG. Indy is 3-2 as a home underdog. Home side won four of last five series games; Broncos lost their last six visits here- their last win in Indy was in ’03. AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 2-5-1 vs spread this year; AFC South underdogs are 7-5-1, 3-1 at home. Under is 3-1 in last four Denver games, 5-0 in Colts’ last five games.


Saturday's games
Bears (4-9) @ Lions (7-6)— Chicago snapped 5-game skid with 33-7 win in Cincy LW; Bears are 2-4 on road, 3-3 as a road underdog. Chicago had four offensive TD’s LW, after having only one in its last two games combined. Lions lost four of last five home games; they ran ball for only 62.3 ypg in their last four games. Detroit had five takeaways in Tampa LW, after having one takeaway in previous three games. Detroit (-3) beat the Bears 27-24 at home four weeks ago, despite Chicago running ball for 222 yards. Lions won eight of last nine series games; their 17-14 loss here LY was their first in last four visits to the Windy City. Dogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season. Under is 8-5 in Chicago games, 1-5 in last six Detroit games.


Chargers (7-6) @ Chiefs (7-6)— Teams are tied for first in AFC West. Chiefs (-3) beat Chargers 24-10 back in Week 3 for their 7th straight series win, running ball for 189 yards with a +3 turnover ratio. Bolts lost last three visits to Arrowhead, by 12-7-6 points. Chargers won four in a row, are 7-2 since their 0-4 start- they’ve allowed only 29 points in their last three games. Bolts are 3-3 on road, 4-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 3-8-3 points. Chiefs lost six of their last eight games; they’re 4-2 at home, 4-2 as home favorites. Home teams are 5-2-1 vs spread in AFC West games this season. Four of Chiefs’ last five games stayed under total, as did seven of last eight Charger games. Under for Chargers’ opponents is 8-1 in their last nine games.


Sunday's games
Eagles (11-2) @ Giants (2-11)— Nick Foles is 20-16 as an NFL starter, 15-9 with Philly; he has the reins to Eagle offense with Wentz out for year. Philly won 10 of last 11 games; they’re 5-2 on road, 3-1 as a road favorite. Giants lost last three games by 10-7-20 points, scoring three TD’s on last 36 drives- they’re 16 for last 57 on 3rd down conversions. Eagles (-6) beat Giants 27-24 at home back in Week 3; Philly ran ball for 193 yards, in game where both teams had 100+ penalty yards. Giants lost despite 14-yard edge in field position. Philly won six of last seven series games; they’re 8-2 in last ten visits here. Favorites are 6-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Three of last four Eagle games, and last four Giant games stayed under total.


Packers (7-6) @ Panthers (9-4)— Aaron Rodgers has been cleared to play in this game. Green Bay won its last two games with TD’s in OT; Packers are 3-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 11-13-3 points on foreign soil. Carolina won five of last six games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-3 vs spread as home favorites- they ran ball for 200+ yards in three of last five games. Panthers are 11-39 on 3rd down in last three games, after going 11-14 vs Miami in Week 10- they’ve turned ball over only twice in last four games (+4). Teams split last six series games overall, split last eight played here. Average total in last four series games, 60.0. NFC South home favorites are 5-9 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 7-6. Five of last six Green Bay games went over total, as did last four Carolina games.


Bengals (5-8) @ Vikings (10-3)— Cincinnati lost four of last six games; they got crushed at home by the Bears LW, giving up 232 rushing yards. Cincy is 2-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, with road losses by 3-15-16-4 points. Minnesota had its 8-game win streak snapped LW; Vikings are 5-1 at home, 3-1 as home favorites, with wins by 10-17-13-8-17 points at home. Teams split their 12 all-time meetings; home team won 11 of those 12 games. Bengals are 0-5 in their visits to the Twin Cities. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 5-5-1 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 6-3. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Bengal games, 5-2 in last seven Minnesota games. Viking coach Zimmer was DC for Bengals before coming to Minnesota.


Dolphins (6-7) @ Bills (7-6)— Last two times Miami beat the Patriots and then played the next week, they lost both games, 19-0/29-10, both times in Buffalo. Short week for warm-weather Dolphins coming north to visit western NY after upsetting Pats Monday night, which snapped Miami’s 4-game losing streak. Dolphins are 2-4 on road; they were outscored 120-38 in last three road games. Buffalo is 6-1 when it allows 17 or less points, 1-5 when they allow more; Bills are 5-2 at home, 3-0-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 9-10-3-20-6 points. Miami swept Bills LY, winning both games by FG, after losing five of previous six series games. Dolphins lost four of last five visits to western NY. Home teams are 6-1-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Last six Miami games went over total; last three Buffalo games stayed under.


Texans (4-9) @ Jaguars (9-4)— Jaguars won six of last seven games, are 5-2 at home, 3-2 as home favorites- they lost to Titans/Rams at home. Jax has 12 takeaways in its last four games (+7); in their last nine games, they outscored opponents 128-61 in second half. Jacksonville (+5.5) had four takeaways (+4), upset Texans 29-7 in season opener; it was only Jags’ third win in last 14 series games. Houston won five of its last six visits here. Texans are 1-6 in their last seven games, losing last three in row, by 7-11-10 points; they lost their last three road games, by 26-7-11 points. Favorites are 5-3 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year. Four of last six Houston games stayed under total, as have five of last seven Jaguar games.


Jets (5-8) @ Saints (9-4)— Jets lost six of last eight games, are screwed with QB McCown out for season; new QB Petty is 1-3 as an NFL starter, his backup Hackenberg has yet to play in the NFL. Jets are 1-5 on road, 1-2-1 as road underdogs, with road losses by 9-25-3-5-23 points- their road win was in Cleveland. New Orleans lost two of last three games; they have rematch with rival Falcons next week. Saints won last five home games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning games in Superdome by 14-8-20-3-10 points, with loss to Patriots. Saints won five of last seven series games; Jets are 3-2 in five visits to Bourbon Street. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 5-9.


Cardinals (6-7) @ Redskins (5-8)— Washington lost six of last eight games; they’re 3-3 at home, 1-1 as home favorites. Redskins were outrushed 356-151 in last two games. Cardinals are 2-3 in true road games, 0-3 vs spread as road underdogs, with road losses by 12-27-10 points, and wins at Indy/SF. Arizona won last two series games, 30-20/31-23; Washington is 4-9 in its last 13 trips to the desert. NFC West road underdogs are 5-8 vs spread; NFC West favorites are 7-8 vs spread 5-5 at home. Over is 6-3 in last nine Redskin games, 3-1 in last four Arizona games.


Ravens (7-6) @ Browns (0-13)— Baltimore lost 39-38 thriller in Pittsburgh LW, snapping their 3-game win streak; Ravens scored 82 points in last two games, scoring 9 TD’s on their last 22 drives. Baltimore is 3-3 in true road games, 1-0 as a road favorite. Winless Cleveland is 3-10 vs spread, 2-5 at home; they lost two of last there home games in OT. In there last six games, Browns were outscored 90-37 in 2nd half. Ravens (-7.5) had five takeaways (+3), beat Cleveland 24-10 at home back in Week 2; Baltimore is 17-2 in last 19 series games, winning last three visits here, by 2-6-5 points. Favorites are 5-4 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Four of Browns’ last six games went over total, as have seven of last nine Raven games.


Rams (9-4) @ Seahawks (8-5)— First place in NFC West is at stake here. LA turned ball over five times (-3) in 16-10 home loss to Seattle in Week 5; teams split last eight series games, but Rams are 1-11 in last 12 visits here. LA figures to get WR Woods (shoulder) back, which helps; in their last four games. Rams are 11-43 on 3rd down, but they’ve also scored TD on defense/special teams the last two weeks. LA is 5-1 on road, 2-1 as road underdogs. Seattle split its last six games; they’re 4-2 at home, 1-4 vs spread as home favorites. Seahawks haven’t allowed a first half TD in their last three games. Home side is 0-7-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this season. Over is 5-1 in Rams’ road games, 3-6 in last nine Seattle games.


Patriots (10-3) @ Steelers (11-2)— Since 2013, New England is 12-2 vs spread coming off a loss. Winner here will own home field advantage for top seed in AFC; if game were to go to OT, Pitt could play for tie, since they lead Pats by a game. Patriots scored 34.5 ppg in winning last four series games- they beat Steelers twice LY, 27-16 here, then 36-17 at home in playoffs. Short week for Pats after loss in Miami Monday; NE is 5-1 in true road games, 4-2 as road favorites. Steelers won their last eight games; five of their last six wins are by 5 or less points. Pitt is still without LB Shazier, so their defense is vulnerable. AFC East non-divisional road favorites are 3-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 7-6-1, 1-2 at home. Under is 6-2 in last eight Patriot games; over is 3-0-1 in last four Steeler games.


Titans (8-5) @ 49ers (3-10)— Tennessee is game behind Jaguars in AFC South; they play J’ville in Week 17. Titans won six of last eight games, are 3-4 on road, 0-2 as a road dog. Tennessee did not score in second half in Arizona LW; they allowed total of only 41 points in last three games. 49ers won three of last four games after an 0-9 start; 49ers are 1-5 at home, they’re favored here for first time this season. Garoppolo is now 4-0 as an NFL starter. Titans/49ers split last six meetings; Tennessee won two of last three visits here. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-3 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4-1. Five of last six 49er games stayed under total, as did last three Titan games. Tennessee is 7-0 when it scores 20+ points.


Cowboys (7-6) @ Raiders (6-7)— Dallas won its last two games, scoring 38-30 points; they’re 4-2 on road, 4-1 as road favorites- they scored three TD’s in 8:00 span of 4th quarter to break tie game in New Jersey LW. Cowboys were held to 7-9-6 points in last three losses; they scored 8 TD’s on 22 drives in last two games. Dallas converted 20 of last 39 plays on 3rd down. Raiders are 4-3 in last seven games; they won last three home games, are 1-0 as home underdogs. Home side won last four series games; Dallas lost 19-13 in last visit here, in 2005. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-8 vs spread, 2-3 on road. AFC West underdogs are 6-5, 2-1 at home. Five of last six Dallas games stayed under total, as did last four Oakland games.


Monday's game
Falcons (8-5) @ Buccaneers (4-9)— 8-5 Falcons won four of last five games, are game behind Saints/Panthers in NFC South- they play those teams the last two weeks. Atlanta is 4-2 on road, 2-1 as road favorites. Tampa Bay lost three in row, eight of last nine games; they’re 3-3 at home, 1-2 as home underdogs. Buccaneers haven’t led at halftime since Week 4. Atlanta (-10) beat Bucs 34-10 at home three weeks ago; Falcons converted 11-14 on 3rd down, averaged 10.2 yds/pass attempt. Tampa Bay won three of last four series games- teams split last six series games played here. Home side is 5-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 8-2 in last ten Falcon games, 4-2 in Bucs’ last six games.


2017 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N
4) 4-7 2-3 8-7-1 2-2
5) 4-7 1-1 6-8 3-0A
6) 3-8 3-0 8-6 3-1N
7) 5-0-2 3-4 7-8 1-1
8) 5-4 0-4 7-6 3-1N
9) 5-2-1 0-3-1 5-8 2-0N
10) 4-3 3-3-1 8-6 5-0N
11) 4-4 1-5 7-7 2-2
12) 7-2-1 1-5 8-8 2-2
13) 5-4 5-2 7-9 2-0A
14) 5-4 4-3 7-8 4-2N


T) 63-60-2 36-37-2 99-106-2 31-19N

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 15
Monty Andrews


Chicago's 61.54-percent touchdown success rate in the red zone ranks behind only the Eagles, Raiders, Packers and Cowboys.


Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5, 44)


Bears' red-zone success vs. Lions' downtrodden defense


The Detroit Lions can ill afford a letdown this weekend as they look to bolster their playoff chances against the division-rival Chicago Bears on Saturday afternoon at Ford Field. The Lions ended a two-game losing skid with a pivotal 24-21 win over the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay last weekend, and already have a three-point win in Chicago on their 2017 resume. But the Bears saw a major offensive breakout in Sunday's 33-7 win over Cincinnati, and have a major edge when it comes to red-zone performance.


The Bears hadn't done much with the football this season prior to last weekend, when they established a season high in points while racking up nearly 500 yards of total offense. And yet, Chicago has been one of the league's most prolific teams inside the opposition 20-yard line even before last week's drubbing; its 61.54-percent touchdown success rate in the red zone ranks behind only the Eagles, Raiders, Packers and Cowboys - and it's a significant step up from the 51.02-percent success rate it posted in 2016.


The Lions will need to tighten up a few areas if they aspire to make some noise in the NFC postseason picture - and among those is a deficiency when it comes to limiting opposing teams in the red zone. Detroit has surrendered six points on 63.83 percent of red-zone defensive stands; only the Browns, Packers and Dolphins have been more generous. The Lions scored enough points for that not to matter in their first go-around with the Bears - but they might not be so fortunate this time.


Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11.5, 39)


Texans' terrible pass defense vs. Jaguars' sensational sack ability


Injuries have completely unravelled the Texans' season as they continue to play out the string this weekend against the playoff-hungry Jacksonville Jaguars. Houston has suffered a litany of injury losses on both sides of the ball, and reached the low point of their campaign last weekend with a 15-14 home defeat at the hands of the lowly San Francisco 49ers. In order to prevent anyone else from winding up on the sidelines, they'll need to figure out how to slow down the league's most dominant pass rush.


Last weekend was a scary one for Texans fans, and the result was only part of the issue. Quarterback Tom Savage was removed from the game after a frightening hit, only to be re-inserted a short time later; he was removed again for good immediately afterward and subsequently diagnosed with a concussion. Whoever takes snaps this weekend will need to deal with an offensive line that has already yielded 41 sacks, tied for fourth-most in the NFL. Houston's 14 interceptions against are tied for fifth-most in the league.


Regardless of who Houston starts under center, the Jaguars will be ready - and certainly able - to drag him to the turf. Jacksonville has run roughshod over opposing quarterbacks in 2017, leading the league with 47 sacks - six more than runner-up Pittsburgh - for 305 sack yards lost. Not surprisingly, all that QB pressure has led to Jacksonville snagging 19 interceptions, second only to Baltimore. Look for the Jaguars to make life absolutely miserable for Houston's beleaguered offensive line this weekend.


Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-2, 44.5)


Titans' tremendous discipline vs. 49ers; penalty-flag party


The Titans have overcome inconsistency on both side of the ball to remain the AFC playoff hunt entering this weekend's showdown with the host 49ers. Tennessee is coming off a 12-7 setback to the Arizona Cardinals; it's just the second loss in the last eight games for the Titans, who feared they had lost quarterback Marcus Mariota to a knee injury but learned he should play this weekend. And while the 49ers are slight favorites, they're giving plenty away in the penalty flag department.


Tennessee hasn't been flashy this season, but it has exhibited tremendous discipline through its first 13 games. The Titans come into the week having been flagged just 75 times, the fourth-fewest accepted penalties in the league. Combined with being on the positive side of 101 accepted penalties from the opposition, and Tennessee's plus-26 penalty flag margin leads the NFL. The Titans also rank ninth in the NFL in total penalty yard margin at plus-93.


When things go bad, it can be hard to keep one's composure. And that certainly appears to be the case in San Francisco, where the 49ers have seen 104 accepted penalties go against them; only the rival Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins have accrued more yellow flags. Combine that with the fact that San Francisco has drawn just 76 opposition flags, and their minus-28 differential ranks ahead of only the Seahawks; they also rank second-last in penalty yard differential (minus-202).


Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6, 47.5)


Falcons' drive-extension prowess vs. Buccaneers' third-down troubles


The Atlanta Falcons' quest to return to the Super Bowl hit a major speed bump in a five-week span earlier in the season - but the defending NFC champions have returned to form at the right time as they look to rise to the top of the competitive South division with a win Monday night at Tampa. The Falcons have won four of five and are coming off a critical 20-17 win over rival New Orleans; they also come into this one with a sizeable edge when it comes to third-down situations.


The Falcons were no doubt aided by an early injury to electrifying Saints running back Alvin Kamara, but they were still facing a formidable New Orleans defense - and they did exactly what they had to do, controlling the clock (34:41 time of possession) thanks in large part to a 7-for-12 showing on third down. That's nothing new to Atlanta, which leads the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 46.4 percent and has been even more effective over the last three games, converting at a 52.8-percent clip.


That bodes poorly for a Buccaneers team that has completely unravelled on third-down defense this season after leading the NFL in that category last season. Tampa Bay is allowing opponents to score or extend drives on a whopping 48.3 percent of third-down situations, after posting a 34.4-percent mark in 2016. The Lions extended the Bucs' misery by going 5-for-11 on third down in Sunday's win, and Tampa Bay would be fortunate to hold Atlanta to a similar success rate in the Monday nighter.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 15


Thursday, December 14

Denver @ Indianapolis


Game 301-302
December 14, 2017 @ 8:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Denver
125.775
Indianapolis
127.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+2 1/2); Under




Saturday, December 16


Chicago @ Detroit


Game 303-304
December 16, 2017 @ 4:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
128.523
Detroit
131.643
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 7
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+7); Over


LA Chargers @ Kansas City


Game 305-306
December 16, 2017 @ 8:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
134.332
Kansas City
137.864
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 1
46
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-1); Over




Sunday, December 17

Philadelphia @ NY Giants


Game 307-308
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
139.756
NY Giants
129.295
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 10 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 7 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-7 1/2); Under


Green Bay @ Carolina


Game 309-310
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
129.873
Carolina
138.315
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 5 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-5 1/2); Under


Cincinnati @ Minnesota


Game 311-312
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
124.337
Minnesota
138.796
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 14 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 10
41
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-10); Over


Miami @ Buffalo


Game 313-314
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.873
Buffalo
128.521
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1 1/2
30
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
N/A


Houston @ Jacksonville


Game 315-316
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Houston
128.784
Jacksonville
135.698
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 7
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 13
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+13); Over


NY Jets @ New Orleans


Game 317-318
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
128.458
New Orleans
149.612
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 21
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 15
47
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-15); Over


Arizona @ Washington


Game 319-320
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
126.339
Washington
133.943
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 4
44
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-4); Under


Baltimore @ Cleveland


Game 321-322
December 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
132.506
Cleveland
128.443
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 4
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 9
40
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+9); Over


LA Rams @ Seattle


Game 323-324
December 17, 2017 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
135.667
Seattle
139.209
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 3 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 1 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+1 1/2); Under


New England @ Pittsburgh


Game 325-326
December 17, 2017 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
New England
135.455
Pittsburgh
136.885
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3
53
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+3); Over


Tennessee @ San Francisco


Game 327-328
December 17, 2017 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
132.203
San Francisco
130.144
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+2); Under


Dallas @ Oakland


Game 329-330
December 17, 2017 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
128.445
Oakland
130.895
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
Pick
46
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
Under




Monday, December 18

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay


Game 331-332
December 18, 2017 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
139.335
Tampa Bay
129.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 10
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 5
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-5); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Thursday, December 14


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football: Broncos at Colts
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, 40.5)


The Indianapolis Colts still may be thawing out after competing in blizzard-like conditions last week while the Denver Broncos ended an ice-cold stretch of eight straight losses with a shutout in their last contest. Two teams with little on the line find themselves playing on a short week at Lucas Oil Stadium on Thursday.


"It's a challenge. Guys like playing football. Guys like playing on prime time. Our guys are excited about having an opportunity to play on Thursday," said Colts coach Chuck Pagano, who watched his team sustain its fourth straight loss with a 13-7 overtime setback in snowy Buffalo. Indianapolis ranks 30th in the NFL in scoring at 16.3 points per game and faces a stingy Denver defense that is yielding a league-best 280.5 yards per game and second-best 191.1 yards through the air. The Broncos improved upon those numbers in emphatic fashion last Sunday, limiting the New York Jets to just 100 yards of offense (59 rushing, 41 passing) in a 23-0 rout of the New York Jets. "To see nothing but smiles, we want to keep this feeling," safety Darian Stewart said. "We want to go into Indy with a fresh mind and leave there with a win."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (+4.5) - Colts (+5) + home field (-3) = Colts -2.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as three-point road favorites and, as of Wednesday evening, that number is down to 2.5. The total hit betting boards at 41.5 and was dropped a full point to 40.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Hands down, the weakest NFL Thursday night night game to ever come down the pike finds the Broncos taking on the Colts with the loser bolstering their standing in the this year’s NFL draft. Unbelievably, Denver is 0-8 SU and ATS in its last 8 away games while Indianapolis has dominated this foe of late, going 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS the last 10 games in this series - including 5-0 SU and ATS at home. No surprise if we don’t see more of the same this evening." - Marc Lawrence.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

INJURY REPORT:


Broncos - S Jamal Carter (Probable, Shoulder), NT Domata Peko Sr. (Probable, Knee), LB Todd Davis (Probable, Concussion), QB Paxton Lynch (Late Dec, Ankle), S Justin Simmons (I-R, Ankle), G Billy Turner (Questionable, Hand), G Ron Leary (I-R, Back), DE Derek Wolfe (I-R, Neck), T Menelik Watson (I-R, Foot), QB Chad Kelly (I-R, Wrist), TE Jake Butt (I-R, Knee), LB Corey Nelson (I-R, Elbow), DE Jared Crick (I-R, Back), WR Carlos Henderson (I-R, Thumb), DE Billy Winn (I-R, Knee).


Colts - RB Frank Gore (Probable, Hand), DT Hassan Ridgeway (Probable, Shoulder), TE Darrell Daniels (Out, Hamstring), C Ryan Kelly (Out, Concussion), CB Nate Hairston (Out, Concussion), WR Donte Moncrief (Out, Ankle), CB Rashaan Melvin (Out Indefinitely, Hand), T Jack Mewhort (Questionable, Knee), LB John Simon (I-R, Shoulder), CB Pierre Desir (I-R, Shoulder), TE Erik Swoope (I-R, Knee), DT Henry Anderson (I-R, Throat), WR Quan Bray (I-R, Undisclosed), QB Andrew Luck (I-R, Shoulder), S Malik Hooker (I-R, Knee), RB Robert Turbin (I-R, Arm), WR Krishawn Hogan (I-R, Knee), G Deyshawn Bond (I-R, Quadricep), LB Edwin Jackson (I-R, Undisclosed), RB George Winn (I-R, Undisclosed), RB Christine Michael (I-R, Undisclosed).

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-9 SU, 3-9-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U): Trevor Siemian answered three-interception performances in each of his previous two starts with a turnover-free effort versus the Jets. "There's going to be times in the game you're smart, but you're aggressive at the same time," the 25-year-old Siemian said. "There's been a couple of times this year where I've been stupid and aggressive, which you can't be. You just want to have a good process." Siemian aims to take advantage of a Colts defense that is ranked 31st in points allowed per game (26.4) and 30th in both total yards (375.3) and passing yards (257.8). Demaryius Thomas reeled in eight receptions against the Jets for the second time in a six-game stretch, during which he has found the end zone four times.

ABOUT THE COLTS (3-10 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U): Frank Gore isn't interested in any talk about his age, and the veteran running back showed he's still up to the task by rushing a career-high 36 times for 130 yards last week versus the Bills. The 34-year-old needs 59 scrimmage yards to join Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith as the only players in NFL history with at least 12-plus consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards. Jack Doyle found the end zone in the snow last week, and his 64 receptions rank second amongst tight ends.

TRENDS:


* Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Colts are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games.
* Under is 6-1 in Broncos' last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 9-2 in Colts' last 11 home games.
* Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the Broncos on the road at a rate of 63 percent and the Over is getting 51 percent of the totals action.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Best Bet
December 13, 2017


NFL Week 15 TNF Betting Preview
Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts


After having division rivalry games on TNF in four of the past five weeks, Week 15 begins with a non-division game between two AFC squads that are just counting down the days until the year is finished. This Denver/Indy game or the “Peyton Manning Bowl” as I like to call it, isn't going to attract much interest this week given these are two of the worst teams in the AFC, but that doesn't mean we can't add a unit or two to our bankrolls.
Denver (-2.5); Total set at 40.5


The Denver Broncos snapped an eight-game losing streak with a 23-0 home win over the Jets last Sunday as the vaunted Broncos defense looked inspired for the first time in weeks. That was the Broncos fourth win of the year and all four of those victories have come at home. It's not often you find a team that's winless on the road laying points in hostile territory this late in the year, but that's precisely the spot Denver is in here.


The Colts are probably excited just to be indoors this week after their snow globe game in Buffalo in Week 14. Indianapolis came up short in OT in that contest, but with more than a foot of snow falling during the game and the weather dictating it be a run-heavy contest, a team like the Colts who often struggles to run the ball was never really going to do well. But after getting a few days to warm themselves up, they get to play at home in ideal conditions this week.


When you've got a game like this between two teams left playing out the string this late in the year, there are a few things I look for and try to anticipate. One of those is motivation levels as there really isn't much to play for other than individual stats and potential future jobs, and these games often come down to there being one team that really doesn't want to be there and are simply out on the field to collect their paycheque.


More often than not it's the visiting side that falls into that category, and despite Denver's “inspired” performance a week ago, sending them on the road on a short week in a meaningless game is not an ideal spot to say the least. Denver is an organization that has not had 2017 go their way in the slightest and now that they got that horrible losing streak done and over with, it may become full tank-mode for this team the rest of the way and I simply don't see how this team will have any motivation to play well in this game.


Conversely, the Colts have lost four in a row themselves, and after dealing with the frustration of playing in a blizzard, we could see this offense – especially guys involved in the aerial attack (QB,WR, TE) – take advantage of the better conditions and look to put up some big numbers. Stats do very much matter to these guys in terms of future contracts and with last week's game basically being a throw away in that regard for guys like WR TY Hilton and others, this could be the spot where the Colts playmakers make up for lost time.


Indianapolis has always been a team that doesn't seem to mind playing on a short week from a betting perspective as they are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games on a Thursday, and with a 9-2-1 ATS run going after allowing less than 150 passing yards last time out (aided by weather), and a 6-1 ATS run after scoring 14 points or less, I don't think I can pass up taking the points with the home dog here.


Denver is not only winless SU on the road this year, but dating back to the end of last season they are on a 0-8 ATS run away from home, an dare also 0-3-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less themselves. Those are numbers I don't mind seeing considering the Colts appear to be the better play, as Indy takes full advantage of a disinterested Denver team that could have a lot of guys in self-preservation mode on defense.

Best Bet: Indianapolis +2.5

 

[CNOTES]

TNF - Broncos at Colts
December 14, 2017


Denver (-2.5, 40.5) at Indianapolis, 8:25 pm ET, NBC/NFLN


It’s hard to get anyone to universally agree on anything these days, but all we’ve heard from NFL players the past few seasons is how difficult these Thursday night games are to play and how they put them at a higher risk of injury. Although we’ve had a few stinkers in terms of matchups already, Week 15’s offering will be the first between teams that have no shot at the postseason, making it all the more difficult to handicap which is more likely to show up.


The Colts are at home, but the Broncos have been installed as a slight favorite on the heels of a 23-0 shutout of the Jets on Sunday. The win snapped an eight-game losing streak for a team that entered the season expecting to return to the playoffs after having a string of five straight postseason appearances following five consecutive AFC West titles snapped by last season’s 9-7 finish.


Indianapolis has lost seven of eight, including the last four. Andrew Luck’s absence lingering the way it did clipped all hope before there was any legitimate reason for any. Despite Chuck Pagano pleading ignorance to how the franchise quarterback was progressing after shoulder surgery, his inability to get back on schedule clued everyone into the fact something had gone wrong.


The Colts attempted to stay afloat by trading for New England backup Jacoby Brissett, but between poor offensive line play and getting acclimated to a whole new system, neither he nor the team had much chance. The organization finally announced Luck wouldn’t be back and saw more dirty laundry leak out in the form of a rumor that owner Jim Irsay is of the belief his franchise QB’s woes are more mental than they are physical. Indy has had a losing record throughout, so the highlight of its season was moving to 2-3 after wins over the Browns and 49ers.


In a parallel universe, those football fans will enjoy a healthy luck challenging Denver’s championship-caliber defense. In this one, we’ll likely get a clunker.


On the off chance both teams do come to play and put on a good show, it would likely be due to the running game producing results. Indianapolis’ Frank Gore carried 36 times for 130 yards amid a Sunday snowstorm in Buffalo. We’ll see how the 34-year-old responds to playing on a short week after such a heavy workload. If Gore averages 83 rushing yards over the three remaining games, he’ll pass Curtis Martin as the No. 4 rusher in NFL history with over 14,075 career yards. Expect rookie Marlon Mack to help take some of the carries as we’ll likely see Pagano go for more of a split against a run defense that leads the NFL by allowing just 3.3 yards per carry.


Despite the Colts’ standing as the second-worst team in the AFC, questions about tanking the rest of the way to ensure the best possible pick in April’s NFL draft were scoffed at by Chuck Pagano. He’ll be utilizing everyone available to him to try and secure a third home win. Only Washington has given up more points than Indianapolis (344-343), which also ranks in the bottom 10 in run defense and bottom three in pass defense.


Trevor Siemian threw for 200 yards and a touchdown against the Jets last week, while C.J. Anderson got the ball 22 times and should be featured again ahead of Jamaal Charles and Deontae Booker.


Siemian has thrown for exactly 200 in each of the last two weeks and comes off only his third interception-free game of the season. The Paxton Lynch ankle injury that helped Siemian get the job back will keep the former first-round pick out of this one, so Brock Osweiler will be the backup.


Brissett threw for just 69 yards in a 13-7 OT loss to the Bills, but did throw a touchdown for the fifth time in his last six outings. Indianapolis has scored 20 or more points in only two of its last seven and has averaged just 12.5 points over its last four. The Colts have been sacked 52 times, eight more than Arizona, which has surrendered the second-most. Denver has given up 41, which is tied for fourth-most.


As if you needed another reason to watch, holes burned into your retinas thanks to Denver’s all-orange color rush uniforms come free of charge. Siemian said it makes them look like “human traffic cones.” If you’re of the belief you play as well as you look, taking the points with the Colts at home would be an easy decision. They’re be sporting an all-royal blue ensemble.


Denver Broncos
Season win total: 8 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC West:Off the board
Odds to win AFC: Off the board
Odds to win Super Bowl: Off the board

Indianapolis Colts
Season win total: 8 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC South: Off the board
Odds to win AFC: Off the board
Odds to win Super Bowl: Off the board

LINE MOVEMENT


Both of these teams have seen any future action taken off the board since they're already eliminated. The Colts were 6/1 to win the AFC South, which means Westgate had them pegged as the last-place team. Denver had 9/2 odds in the AFC West, tied for the longest shot with the Chargers.


The UNDER has already been clinched on the win totals for both. Denver was 20/1 to win the AFC and 40/1 as a Super Bowl pick prior to the start of the season. Indianapolis' odds were 50/1 to win the AFC and 100/1 to emerge as champs.


As far as this matchup is concerned, the Colts were installed as a 1-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, but Denver opened the week favored by 2-to-2.5 everywhere and has remained there. The total opened at 41-to-41.5, but has come down to 40.5 nearly everywhere but the Wynn, which has it at 40.


Carolina is -170/-180 on the money line, while Philadelphia will get you +160.


ODDSMAKER'S TAKE


"There’s hardly any public interest for Thursday Night Football, but the pros have taken a minor stance. At this point, they’re on Denver and the under. The square money we do have thus far is also on the Broncos. We’re currently looking at 65 percent of the tickets on the visitor and 70 percent of the money there as well."


INJURY CONCERNS


The Broncos are the healthier group, though a number of key players appeared on the injury report before being cleared to play. QB Siemian (back), WR Emmanuel Sanders (ankle), center Matt Paradis (wrist) and starting linebackers Shane Ray (wrist) and Todd Davis (ankle) were all full participants in practice this week and will be good to go.


Nose tackle Domata Peko has been limited by a knee injury that ended his streak of 123 consecutive starts, keeping him out consecutive games. He’s healed up enough to be a “game-time” decision according to coaches. Strong safety Justin Simmons was placed on IR due to an ankle injury and will be replaced by second-year safety Will Parks. The offense lost guard Ron Leary, who went on IR with a back injury. Second-year player Connor McGovern will fill in.


Indianapolis will be without both of its starting corners, Nate Hairston (concussion) and Rashaan Melvin. They dumped Vontae Davis and lost safety Malik Hooker to IR after a freak play in late October. LB John Simon is also out after sustaining a shoulder injury. He was one of the team’s best defenders when healthy. DE Henry Anderson went on IR due to a throat injury last month. Center Ryan Kelly is again out with a concussion. The Colts have started four players at that key offensive line position this season. WR Donte Moncrief won’t play due to a bum ankle. Brissett (quad), Gore (hand) and DT Hassan Ridgeway (shoulder) practiced Wednesday and will play.


RECENT MEETINGS (Indianapolis 8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS last 10; OVER 7-2-1)


9/18/16 Denver 34-20 vs. Indianapolis (DEN -6, 47)
11/8/15 Indianapolis 27-24 vs. Denver (IND +5.5, 45.5)
1/11/15 Indianapolis 24-13 at Denver (IND +7, 53.5)
9/7/14 Denver 31-24 vs. Indianapolis (IND +7.5, 55)
10/20/13 Indianapolis 39-33 vs. Denver (IND +6, 54.5)
9/26/10 Indianapolis 27-13 at Denver (IND -6, 47)
12/13/09 Indianapolis 28-16 vs. Denver (IND -6.5, 43.5)
9/30/07 Indianapolis 38-20 vs. Denver (IND -10, 46.5)
10/29/06 Indianapolis 34-31 at Denver (IND +3, 39.5)
1/9/05 Indianapolis 49-24 vs. Denver (IND -10, 56)


NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED


The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 16 currently has the Colts as a 10-point road underdog looking to play spoiler in Baltimore on Saturday, Dec. 23. The Broncos will be back on the road in a meaningless game, visiting Washington. Denver is listed as a 5-point underdog.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 15
December 14, 2017


THURSDAY, DEC. 14
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at INDIANAPOLIS (NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Broncos 0-6 SU and vs. spread away this season, no wins or covers last eight away since late 2016. Denver has 8 Ls in a row prior to recent Jets win. Indy no covers last three TY but is 4-2 vs. line at Lucas Oil. Colts also “under” last five TY.
Tech Edge: Colts and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


SATURDAY, DEC. 16
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at DETROIT (NFL, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Bears 3-1 vs. line on road with Trubisky at QB. Lions had been “over” five in a row prior to Bucs game last week. Last five games in this series all decided by 4 points or fewer.
Tech Edge: Bears and slight to “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY (NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET)
KC has won last seven SU in this series, but if Bolts getting points, note 24-12-1 spread mark since 2012 on road in role. Chiefs 2-6 SU and vs. spread last eight this season, Bolts on 7-2 SU and spread run. Bolts “under” 12-5 last 17 since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Chargers and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


SUNDAY, DEC. 17
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Birds 9-1 SU and vs. line last ten this season. G-Men 1-5 vs. points at MetLife in 2017. Last four and five of six “over” in series.
Tech Edge: Eagles and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
GREEN BAY at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers have won and covered last three at home but still just 5-8 vs. line last 13 at Charlotte. Pack has covered last three and four of last five this season. Pack “over” 9-4 this season, Panthers “over” 8-5. TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Packers and “over,” based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bengals had covered four in a row before loss to Bears. Vikes, however, had covered 7 in a row prior to Panthers loss. Vikes 5-1 vs. line at US Bank Stadium TY.
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Miami won at Orchard Park LY but had lost and failed to cover previous four at Buffalo. Dolphins only 1-5 vs. line last six away from Hard Rock Stadium TY. Bills 4-2-1 vs. spread at home this season.
Tech Edge: Bills, based on team and series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags have covered last two in series and 6-4 vs. spread last ten vs. Texans, which spans some bad J’ville teams. Houston 2-4 vs. line since Watson went down at midseason.
Tech Edge: Jags, based on recent trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. JETS at NEW ORLEANS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets have dropped 3 of last 4 vs. number after 6-0-1 spread run earlier this season. Saints 7-4 vs. spread last 11 this season. Saints 15-5 “over” last 20 at home.
Tech Edge: Slight to Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skins 3-6 last nine vs. line TY, Cards have won and covered 2 of last 3 (all at home). Skins “under” 2 of last 3 TY but still “over” 20-9 since last season.
Tech Edge: Slight to Cards and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens have won and covered last four in series. Baltimore 5-1 vs. spread last six TY and is 5-1 vs. line as visitor in 2017 (not counting London game). Ravens also “over” 7-2 last nine TY. Browns on 2-10 spread skid.
Tech Edge: Ravens and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. RAMS at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Rams 6-1 SU, 5-2 vs. line away from Coliseum TY, also “over” 5-2 away. Seahawks only 2-4 vs. line as host in 2-17. After winning and covering last two vs. Rams, note Seahawks had dropped 7 of previous 9 vs. spread in series.
Tech Edge: Rams, based on team and series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Pats have won SU last four and 3-0-1 vs. line last four vs. Steelers. Belichick had won last 8 SU and last six vs. line prior to loss at Miami. Pitt has dropped last three vs. points but now “over” 3-0-1 last four TY after “under” 8-1 previous nine.
Tech Edge: Patriots and “over,” based on team and “totals” trendss.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Niners have won and covered both with Garoppolo at QB. SF also “under” 5-1 last six TY. Titans 3-7 last ten vs. spread TY and 1-5 vs. points last six away from Nashville.
Tech Edge: 49ers, based on recent trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at OAKLAND (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Raiders on 2-8-1 spread skid. Oakland also “under” last four TY. Cowboys “under” four of last five TY.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


MONDAY, DEC. 18
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Bucs 3-9-1 vs. line in 2017, now on 3-11-1 spread skid last 15 since late LY. TB also just 2-5 vs. spread last seven at Raymond James. Falcons on 4-1 spread run last five TY.
Tech Edge: Falcons, based on team trends.