SNF - Cowboys at Raiders
December 15, 2017
The Cowboys have one more week to go until star RB Ezekiel Elliott returns, but it may be late to save their season. With only three games to go, and outside looking in at the playoff picture, Dallas (7-6 straight up, 7-6 against the spread) visits Oakland (6-7 SU, 4-8-1 ATS) Sunday night (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC). The Raiders are the lowest rated among the Cowboys three remaining games. Dallas comes in as steady 3-point favorites.
Prior to Elliott serving his six-game suspension, the Cowboys had won and covered three straight with Elliott rushing for 390 yards and scoring six TDs. But without him, they'd lose their next three, and badly. They didn't score more than 9 points in any of the three. The promising 2017 season was going down the drain. Jerry Jones was/is fuming.
However, in their last two they've got the offensive attack going with a 38-14 win against the Redskins and a 30-10 win at the Giants last week. Sure, those wins were against the worst defense in the NFL and one of the worst, but the promising thing is that QB Dak Prescott finally started feeling comfortable without Elliott. Their defense also played much better with LB Sean Lee back healthy and controlling the unit. Dallas gets another weak defense Sunday night.
The Raiders had a lackluster 26-15 loss at Kansas City last week with the offense sputtering once again. Ever Sunday watching the Raiders I say to myself QB Derek Carr can't play worse than last week, but then he does. He's been off all season and he'll be without WR Amari Cooper for the second straight game. Last season he was the most exciting player in football to watch. This season, he's almost fallen to the stinky depths of the Andy Dalton zone.
Most important of all is that the Raiders don't cover, or at least often. They've gone an awful 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games. That's bad if you bet them like lots of people did early in the season, but it's awesome if you've been betting against them lately.
Both these teams come in trending Under. Dallas has stayed Under in four of its last five and the Raiders have stayed Under in their last four. The total here is 46.
LINE MOVEMENT
Back in May when CG Technology sports books opened lines on every game for the first 16 weeks, they posted this game a pick 'em. This was of course before the Cowboys got hosed by the league when suspending Elliott for six games. It's also before we knew the Raiders would look no where close to last seasons 12-4 squad.
When CG books re-opened the number Sunday night, they posted Dallas 2.5-point road favorites. On Monday it went to -2.5 (-120) and then later in the evening up to -3. The total hasn't moved at 46. The best money-line price on the Cowboys is laying -155 at almost every book. The best price on the Raiders is +145 at Caesars Palace and Wynn Resorts.
HOW THEY BETTING IT?
The early action between William Hill's 107 sports book across Nevada is very telling at what will follow with the masses over the weekend. Of all the wagers on the point-spread for this game, 81 percent of the tickets and 89 percent of cash wagered has been on the Cowboys. Just for some popularity perspective, the Patriots have 88 percent of their cash bet in their clash at Pittsburgh and the Falcons have 89 percent for their Monday night game at Tampa Bay.
WHERE IS THE NUMBER GOING TO GO?
With this being a Sunday night game, the action is going to be large. And despite both teams struggling at times, they're both two of the most popular franchises in football which transcends well through the bet windows. It's going to take substantial public action to move this game off of -3, and it doesn't appear to be an attractive game for sharps to lay. Wynn and Boyd Gaming both have Dallas -3 (-115), an indication straight bet wagers are showing.
This should be a spot where sharps gladly take the home dog at +3 (-105 or EVEN), but they're not biting yet, nor jumping on the money-line. Moving forward, this number will most likely go up than down which means bet the Cowboys sooner than later and or wait for Raiders +3.5 after the first two waves of Sunday games to post which magnifies the Sunday night liability.
ROBERTS' RATINGS
I have the Cowboys 1.5-point better than the Raiders on a neutral field and home field advantage for Oakland is worth almost 2.5-points making my raw number Raiders -1. Next week I'll add 2 points onto the Dallas rating when Elliott is back in the lineup. He's the most important RB to the number in the NFL.
RECENT MEETINGS
These two usually hook up for a preseason game and often work out against each during training camp. They haven't met in a regular season game since 2013 where Dallas (-10) won at home 31-24. Prior to that in 2009, Dallas (-13.5) beat them at home again, 24-7.
SUNDAY NIGHT PROPS - per Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook
Total TD Passes By Dak Prescott: 1.5 OV -140
Total Rushing Yards By Alfred Morris: 70.5
Total Passing Yards By Derek Carr: 265.5
Total TD Passes By Derek Carr: 1.5 OV -135
Total QB Sacks By Both Teams: 3.5 OV -135
Cowboys Total Points Scored: 24.5
Raiders Total Points Scored: 21.5
HOW DO RAIDERS MAKE PLAYOFFS?
Sitting at a junky 6-7, Oakland's best chance is by winning their remaining three games (DAL, at PHI, at LAC) and hope for the Ravens (currently seeded No. 7) and Bills (No. 6 seed) to have some issues. Kansas City failures would also be helpful and the Week 17 game at the Chargers (No. 8) could be for the division title. Current No. 5 seed Tennessee (8-5) also shouldn't feel so cushy with a playoff berth. The Ravens, Bills and Titans are all equally mediocre. Basically, for the Raiders to get in, it's "Just win, baby!"
HOW DO COWBOYS MAKE PLAYOFFS?
Dallas has to look at all those junk teams fighting for the final two AFC slots and hating their NFC situation even more. They're currently sitting in 10th with only six NFC teams advancing to postseason play. No. 8 Detroit and No. 9 Green Bay are also 7-6. The Falcons (No. 6) and Seahawks (No. 7) are both 8-5. Aaron Rodgers comes back this week and Elliott returns next week.
After this week, the get a visit from the Seahawks and then travel to Philadelphia for the finale. A desperate Seattle squad at home is tough and even though the Eagles may rest all the key starters, Philly is going to play well also. This is certainly a tougher road than Oakland.
EARLY WEEK 16 LINES
The Westgate posted early lines Tuesday for next week and opened the Cowboys -3 (-120) at home against the Seahawks. The Raiders play Monday night, on Christmas Day, at Philadelphia where the Eagles are -7.5. There are two games on Monday night (Steelers -8 at Texans, 4:30 pm ET).
SUPER BOWL ODDS
After being considered one of the favorites to win it all after amazing 2016 seasons, now with their playoff lives hanging by a thread they're both 100/1 to win the Super Bowl. The Raiders have the easier road, but less chance based on skill. Dallas could win anywhere on the road with Elliott, but making playoffs is another story. By the way, the Vikings are currently 8/1 to win the Super Bowl which will be played in U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.
December 15, 2017
The Cowboys have one more week to go until star RB Ezekiel Elliott returns, but it may be late to save their season. With only three games to go, and outside looking in at the playoff picture, Dallas (7-6 straight up, 7-6 against the spread) visits Oakland (6-7 SU, 4-8-1 ATS) Sunday night (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC). The Raiders are the lowest rated among the Cowboys three remaining games. Dallas comes in as steady 3-point favorites.
Prior to Elliott serving his six-game suspension, the Cowboys had won and covered three straight with Elliott rushing for 390 yards and scoring six TDs. But without him, they'd lose their next three, and badly. They didn't score more than 9 points in any of the three. The promising 2017 season was going down the drain. Jerry Jones was/is fuming.
However, in their last two they've got the offensive attack going with a 38-14 win against the Redskins and a 30-10 win at the Giants last week. Sure, those wins were against the worst defense in the NFL and one of the worst, but the promising thing is that QB Dak Prescott finally started feeling comfortable without Elliott. Their defense also played much better with LB Sean Lee back healthy and controlling the unit. Dallas gets another weak defense Sunday night.
The Raiders had a lackluster 26-15 loss at Kansas City last week with the offense sputtering once again. Ever Sunday watching the Raiders I say to myself QB Derek Carr can't play worse than last week, but then he does. He's been off all season and he'll be without WR Amari Cooper for the second straight game. Last season he was the most exciting player in football to watch. This season, he's almost fallen to the stinky depths of the Andy Dalton zone.
Most important of all is that the Raiders don't cover, or at least often. They've gone an awful 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games. That's bad if you bet them like lots of people did early in the season, but it's awesome if you've been betting against them lately.
Both these teams come in trending Under. Dallas has stayed Under in four of its last five and the Raiders have stayed Under in their last four. The total here is 46.
LINE MOVEMENT
Back in May when CG Technology sports books opened lines on every game for the first 16 weeks, they posted this game a pick 'em. This was of course before the Cowboys got hosed by the league when suspending Elliott for six games. It's also before we knew the Raiders would look no where close to last seasons 12-4 squad.
When CG books re-opened the number Sunday night, they posted Dallas 2.5-point road favorites. On Monday it went to -2.5 (-120) and then later in the evening up to -3. The total hasn't moved at 46. The best money-line price on the Cowboys is laying -155 at almost every book. The best price on the Raiders is +145 at Caesars Palace and Wynn Resorts.
HOW THEY BETTING IT?
The early action between William Hill's 107 sports book across Nevada is very telling at what will follow with the masses over the weekend. Of all the wagers on the point-spread for this game, 81 percent of the tickets and 89 percent of cash wagered has been on the Cowboys. Just for some popularity perspective, the Patriots have 88 percent of their cash bet in their clash at Pittsburgh and the Falcons have 89 percent for their Monday night game at Tampa Bay.
WHERE IS THE NUMBER GOING TO GO?
With this being a Sunday night game, the action is going to be large. And despite both teams struggling at times, they're both two of the most popular franchises in football which transcends well through the bet windows. It's going to take substantial public action to move this game off of -3, and it doesn't appear to be an attractive game for sharps to lay. Wynn and Boyd Gaming both have Dallas -3 (-115), an indication straight bet wagers are showing.
This should be a spot where sharps gladly take the home dog at +3 (-105 or EVEN), but they're not biting yet, nor jumping on the money-line. Moving forward, this number will most likely go up than down which means bet the Cowboys sooner than later and or wait for Raiders +3.5 after the first two waves of Sunday games to post which magnifies the Sunday night liability.
ROBERTS' RATINGS
I have the Cowboys 1.5-point better than the Raiders on a neutral field and home field advantage for Oakland is worth almost 2.5-points making my raw number Raiders -1. Next week I'll add 2 points onto the Dallas rating when Elliott is back in the lineup. He's the most important RB to the number in the NFL.
RECENT MEETINGS
These two usually hook up for a preseason game and often work out against each during training camp. They haven't met in a regular season game since 2013 where Dallas (-10) won at home 31-24. Prior to that in 2009, Dallas (-13.5) beat them at home again, 24-7.
SUNDAY NIGHT PROPS - per Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook
Total TD Passes By Dak Prescott: 1.5 OV -140
Total Rushing Yards By Alfred Morris: 70.5
Total Passing Yards By Derek Carr: 265.5
Total TD Passes By Derek Carr: 1.5 OV -135
Total QB Sacks By Both Teams: 3.5 OV -135
Cowboys Total Points Scored: 24.5
Raiders Total Points Scored: 21.5
HOW DO RAIDERS MAKE PLAYOFFS?
Sitting at a junky 6-7, Oakland's best chance is by winning their remaining three games (DAL, at PHI, at LAC) and hope for the Ravens (currently seeded No. 7) and Bills (No. 6 seed) to have some issues. Kansas City failures would also be helpful and the Week 17 game at the Chargers (No. 8) could be for the division title. Current No. 5 seed Tennessee (8-5) also shouldn't feel so cushy with a playoff berth. The Ravens, Bills and Titans are all equally mediocre. Basically, for the Raiders to get in, it's "Just win, baby!"
HOW DO COWBOYS MAKE PLAYOFFS?
Dallas has to look at all those junk teams fighting for the final two AFC slots and hating their NFC situation even more. They're currently sitting in 10th with only six NFC teams advancing to postseason play. No. 8 Detroit and No. 9 Green Bay are also 7-6. The Falcons (No. 6) and Seahawks (No. 7) are both 8-5. Aaron Rodgers comes back this week and Elliott returns next week.
After this week, the get a visit from the Seahawks and then travel to Philadelphia for the finale. A desperate Seattle squad at home is tough and even though the Eagles may rest all the key starters, Philly is going to play well also. This is certainly a tougher road than Oakland.
EARLY WEEK 16 LINES
The Westgate posted early lines Tuesday for next week and opened the Cowboys -3 (-120) at home against the Seahawks. The Raiders play Monday night, on Christmas Day, at Philadelphia where the Eagles are -7.5. There are two games on Monday night (Steelers -8 at Texans, 4:30 pm ET).
SUPER BOWL ODDS
After being considered one of the favorites to win it all after amazing 2016 seasons, now with their playoff lives hanging by a thread they're both 100/1 to win the Super Bowl. The Raiders have the easier road, but less chance based on skill. Dallas could win anywhere on the road with Elliott, but making playoffs is another story. By the way, the Vikings are currently 8/1 to win the Super Bowl which will be played in U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.
